Negotiations Turkey - EU   Will They Ever End?

by Crystal Santana, Mike O‘Donnell, Bojana Marusic, Nina Schulte-Schmale

Table of Contents1.) Overview

2.) Background

3.) Beginning of negotiations with EU

4.) Turkey’s progress in meeting the requirements

5.) Arguments for Turkish membership

6.) Arguments against Turkish membership

7.) Conclusion/ Will Turkey join the EU?

Overview Capital: Ankara Official language: Turkish Religion: secular, 99.8% is Muslim Government: ParliamentaryRepublic Population: 2005 estimate 72.600.000 2000 estimate 67.803.927 GDP: 2006 estimate Total $612.3 Billion Per Capita $9,107

Turkey –pluralist secular democracy

Proclamation of the Republic in 1923

1959 – European Economic Community (EEC)

1999 – candidate country

2004 – Copenhagen political criteria

2006 – concrete accession negotiations

Background – steps in becoming a candidate of EU

Beginning of negotiations with EU

3. October 2005 => formal beginning of negotiations by adoption of Negotiating Framework

Based on: Screening process (first stage)

Three pillars

Screening Process

Screening => analytical examination of the EU legislation

EU law divided into 35 chapters

1.) “Analytical screening”: Commission explains its acquis to Turkey

2.) “Detailed or bilateral screening”: Ankara explains its laws

Commission evaluates the degree of development in all chapters.

Three Pillars

I. Full implementation of Copenhagen criteria (political, economic and adoption of acquis)

II. Complying with the EU acquis: - harmonization of Turkey’s rules and

institutions with those of the EU

III. Civil society dialogue: - dialogue on cultural differences, religion, migration issues and concerns about minority rights and terrorism

Turkish Progress on the Requirements

Criteria needing improvement:

Economic

Political

Ability to assume obligations

Economic Aspect No progress made on trade

unions’ rights (based on standards set by EU and Int’l Labor Organization)

Must have the option to strike

Must make ability accessible to conduct collective bargaining

Government debt has decreased

Since 2001, the share of debt in relation to GDP has fallen, and is expected to continue decreasing

Political Aspect (1)

Non-Muslim groups-continual delay of law protecting other religious communities

Freedom of Speech-improvement in allowing people to assemble peacefully

Women’s rights-legal structure established, but not always applied, especially in areas of poverty, where sometimes crimes against women still take place i.e. “honor crimes”

Political Aspect (2)

Minimizing corruption- policies in place are still not strong enough to deter rampant levels of corruption

Corporal abuse- torture still used

Ready to Assume Obligations?

Right of establishment and freedom to provide services

Intellectual/property law Competition Energy Environment

Arguments against Turkish Membership

Values and culture Geography Population size and poverty Political power Relations with neighbors Human right and democracy CAP Budgetary costs

Values and Culture

Predominantly Muslim country (99.8 % of the population)

Turkey is currently the only candidate country with a Muslim majority

Predominantly Muslim country (9

Geography

Only 3% in geographical Europe

Turkish capital is in Asia

Turkey's borders reach Middle Eastern nations

Population Size and Poverty expansion almost equal in population to

that of the 2004 Enlargement

wave of poor Turkish immigration

high current account deficit, high debt, and high unemployment

Unemployment

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/about/activities/cceq/2005q1_cceq.pdf

Political Power

Its almost 70 million inhabitants will bestow it the second largest number of representatives in the European Parliament, after Germany

Relations with Neighbors

Cyprus dispute

Aegean dispute

Human Rights and Democracy

Concerns about the Turkish state´s ability to reach European standards in issues as gender equality, political freedom, religious freedom and minority rights

CAP costs

In general full membership for Turkey of the EU would require an additional $3.1 bn of agricultural subsidies following the existing lines of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)

Budgetary Cost Aspect (1)

starting point

two variants to this approach:

a) How much would Turkey receive today if it were a fully established member?

b) How much is Turkey likely to receive under current rules by a likely accession date, e.g. 2015?

Budgetary Cost Aspect (2)

a) Turkey in the EU today: Structural Funds, capped at 4 % of its GDP Turkey’s GDP around 200 billion euros- its allocation

would be around 8 billion annually extending the current CAP to Turkey -approximately

9 billion

b) Turkey in 2015 in an enlarged EU: absorption limit has been set at 4 % of recipient

GDP Turkish GDP could reach about 4 % of the EU-28

GDP

Arguments for Turkish Membership

Economical Political Energy Resources Population

Economical(1) Top 10 emerging markets in the world

In 2004 and 2005, growth was above 7%

In a few years, Turkey will have overtaken Poland and Romania

Economical(2) GDP is set to grow by 6% per year on average

Contribution to the EU budget would rise from estimated € 5bn in 2014 to almost € 9bn by 2020

Turkish population: vast market for European

goods and ready labour force

It could supplement a labour shortage in “old Europe” (by 2014, 1 in 4 Turks will be 14 or less)

Domestic and Foreign Investments

low labour costs, closeness to a huge potential Eastern European market and unrestricted access to the European market would trigger massive domestic and foreign investments into Turkey's manufacturing industry

Political

Strong regional military power

Second largest standing armed force in NATO and strongest in the Muslim world

Important geo-strategic position

Terrorism concerns

Energy Resources Turkey – center plot of energy resources

Direct piping between Russia and Iran carries natural gas to Turkey

Strategical papelines may help EU to maintain energy guarantee

Population

Muslim population would be a weight to EU multi-culturalism efforts

Might help to prevent potential “clash of civilizations”

23% of Turkish population is under 15, a balance for the increasingly aging population of the current EU

Conclusion/ Will Turkey Join the EU?

Latest steps

Public opinion

Latest Steps (1)

29 Nov. 2006: Commission recommends to partially suspend membership negotiations with Turkey

11 Dec. 2006: EU foreign ministers suspend talks with Turkey on eight of the 35 negotiating areas

1 Jan. 2007: Germany takes over the rotating Presidency of the EU

Latest Steps (2)

Turkey: presidential elections in May and parliamentary elections in November 2007

negotiation process-“open-ended”

2012: Membership negotiations end

2015: Joining date

Public Opinion

48% of EU citizens are against Turkey joining the EU, while about 39% are in favor

Citizens from new member states

Austria

Sweden

What Do People in Turkey Think About the Issue?

http://search.bbc.co.uk/cgi-bin/search/results.pl?q=turkey+EU&tab=av&edition=d&recipe=all&scope=all&start=3

References

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/about/activities/cceq/2005q1_cceq.pdf

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4063233.stm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union

http://www.foreignaffairs.org

http://www.mfa.gov.tr/MFA/ForeignPolicy/MainIssues/TurkeyAndEU/EUHistory.htm

Turkey 2005 Progress Report, European Commission, Brussels 9. November 2005

Thank you for your attention!