SMTAI, September 24, 2003
NEMI Technology Roadmaps NEMI Technology Roadmaps
WhatWhat’’s new for 2002?s new for 2002?
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Topics to be DiscussedTopics to be Discussed
• NEMI Background
• Roadmap Process
• Key findings
• Current NEMI collaboration
• Gap analysis meetings
• Proposed changes for 2004
• Conclusion
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SoftwareSolutions
B2B Collaboration
Marketing Design Manufacturing OrderFulfillment
Supply Chain ManagementInformation Technology
LogisticsCommunications
Business Practices
Build toOrder
Materials
ComponentsDesign
Technology
Customer
NEMI MissionNEMI Mission
Assure the Global Leadership of the North American Electronics Manufacturing Supply Chain
Equipment
MaterialsTransformation
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What Does NEMI Do?What Does NEMI Do?
Leverage the combined Power of MemberCompanies to Provide Industry Leadership
• NEMI Roadmaps the Needs of the North AmericanElectronics Industry
• NEMI Identifies Gaps (both business & technical) inthe North American Infrastructure
• NEMI Conducts Industry Forums on Emerging Topics
• NEMI Stimulates R&D Projects to fill Gaps
• NEMI Establishes Implementation Projects toEliminate Gaps
• NEMI Stimulates Standards to speed the Introductionof New Technology & Business Practices
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ProductNeeds
TechnologyEvolution
GAPAnalysisResearch
Projects
NEMI Implementation Cycle
NEMI Roadmap Cycle
CompetitiveSolutions
RoadmapProject
Completion
Industry SolutionNeeded
Academia
Government
NEMIUsers & Suppliers
Collaborate
No WorkRequired
Availableto Market
Place
Broad IndustryParticipation
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Roadmap LinkagesRoadmap Linkages
Optoelectronics andOptical Storage
InterconnectSubstrates—Ceramic
InterconnectSubstrates—Organic
Magnetic and OpticalStorage
Supply ChainManagement
Displays
Semiconductors
NEMIOptoelectronics
TWG
NEMIMass Data
Storage TWG
NEMI / SIAPackaging
TWG
NEMI / IPCInterconnect
TWG
NEMI Roadmap
NEMISupply ChainManagement
TWG
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Attributes of NEMI RoadmapAttributes of NEMI Roadmap
• The NEMI Roadmap is customer driven, nottechnology driven.
• The OEMs, through the Product Sector Champions,start the roadmapping process by presenting whatthey need to remain competitive in the world market.
• Focus of Roadmaps is on Manufacturing rather thanEnd Products.
• The Technology Working Groups (TWGs) identifygaps and showstoppers in the technology. Theymay also suggest potential solutions.
• The NEMI Technical Committee discusses thesegaps and forms Technology Integration Groups(TIGs) to address them.
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The Drivers: Product Sector ProfilesThe Drivers: Product Sector Profiles
Product Sector
Characteristics
Consumer High volume consumer products for which cost is the primary driver
Portable Handheld, battery-powered products driven by size and weight reduction
Office Products which seek maximum performance within a few thousand dollar cost limit
Large Business
High-end products for which performance is the primary driver
Automotive/Defense
Products which must operate in extreme environments
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Roadmap DevelopmentRoadmap Development
Product SectorsTWGs
Co
nsu
mer
Po
rtab
le
Off
ice
Au
to &
Aer
osp
ace
Lar
ge
Bu
sin
ess
Sys
tem
s
Digital Silicon Technology
Design Technologies
Manufacturing Technologies
Comp./Subsyst. Technologies
Modeling, Thermal, etc.
Board Assy, Test, etc.
Packaging, Substrates, Displays, etc.
Product Sector Needs Vs. Technology Evolution
Business Processes Prod Lifecycle Information Mgmt.
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2002 Product Sector Champions2002 Product Sector Champions
Product Sector Chair Co-Chair
Automotive Products Aerospace/Defense Products
D.H.R. Sarma, Delphi William E. Murphy, Imco
Jim Spall, Delphi
Consumer Products John Thome, Consultant
Portable Products John Thome Kingshuk Banerji, Motorola
Office System Products
Terry Dishongh, Intel
Joshua Moody, HP
Large Business System Products
Evan Davidson, IBM
Scott Mitchell, Sun
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2002 Roadmap Input & Coverage2002 Roadmap Input & Coverage
• Developed by >350 individuals from 170organizations (including non-member companies)
• Covers 18 technology, business practice andinfrastructure topics in the areas of:– Semiconductor technology
– Business processes/technology
– Design technologies
– Manufacturing technologies
– Component subsystem technologies
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Roadmap Structure - 18Roadmap Structure - 18 TWGs TWGs
Semiconductor Technology Digital Silicon Technology
Business Processes/TechnologiesProduct Lifecycle Information Management
Design Technologies Modeling, Simulation, and Design Tools Thermal Management Environmentally Conscious ElectronicsManufacturing Technologies
Board AssemblyTest, Inspection, and MeasurementFinal Assembly
Component/Subsystem Technologies Connectors
PackagingInterconnection Substrates - OrganicInterconnection Substrates - CeramicPassive ComponentsRF ComponentsOptoelectronicsDisplaysMass Data StorageEnergy Storage Systems
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2002 TWG Structure2002 TWG Structure
John Cartwright, Intel
Barbara Goldstein, NIST•Product Lifecycle InformationManagement
Mark Newton, AppleRobert C. Pfahl,Motorola
•Environmentally consciousmanagement
Yogendra Joshi, GITRichard C. Chu, IBM•Thermal management
Dr. KoneruRamakrishna, Mot.
Dr. Sanjeev Sathe, IBM•Modeling, simulation & design tools
Design Technologies
Ben Poole, Sanmina-SCI
Business Processes/Technologies
Alan K. Allan, IntelPaolo Gargini, Intel•Digital Silicon Technology
Co-ChairChairSemiconductor Technology
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2002 TWG Structure (cont.)2002 TWG Structure (cont.)
Dan Doughty, Sandia Labs• Energy Storage Systems
John MacWilliams, Consultant• Connectors
Roger F. Hoyt, IBMTom Coughlin, Consultant• Mass data storage
Dr. Norman Bardsley, USDCM. Robert Pinnel, USDC• Displays
Dr. Laura Turbini, CMAPJohn Stafford, Consultant• Optoelectronics
J. Stevenson Kenney, GITDr. V.J. Nair, Motorola• RF components
Dr. Joseph Dougherty, PSULarry Marcanti, Nortel• Passive components
Dr. Wayne Johnson, AuburnHoward Imhoff, Midas Vision• Interconnect subs – ceramic
Dieter Bergman, IPCJohn T. Fisher, NEMI• Interconnect subs – organic
Bill Bottoms, 3MT Solu.Joseph Adam, Skyworks• Packaging
Component/Subsystem Technologies
Dr. Reijo Tuokko, Tampere U.Mike Reagin, Delphi Delco• Final assembly
David Doyle, OrbotechMichael J. Smith, Teradyne• Test, inspection &measurement
Kirk VanDreel, Plexus
Alex Chen, Celestica
• Board Assembly
Co-ChairChairManufacturing Technology
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Highlights of 2002 NEMI RoadmapHighlights of 2002 NEMI Roadmap
• Produced the first NEMI Roadmap on Electronic Connectors.
• Provided extended Situation Analysis/Benchmarking Reports on:– RF Components
– Optoelectronics
– Displays
– Mass Data Storage
– Energy Storage Systems
– Connectors
– Modeling, Simulation and Design Tools.
• Expanded emphasis on identifying market needs and businesssituation throughout roadmap.
• Combined three existing TWGs into a new TWG (PLIM - ProductLifecycle Information Management) to facilitate identification andintegration of business and technology needs.
• Maintained strong linkages with other Technology roadmaps.
• Strengthened validation of predictions by 2000 NEMI Roadmap.
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Table 6. Cellular handset: Key Attribute NeedsTable 6. Cellular handset: Key Attribute Needs
Table 6. Cellular handset: Key Attribute Needs!
Parameter Metric 2003 2005 2007 2013
RF section cost (for a given function) Relative to costs in2000
0.7 0.35 0.17 0.05
Number of freq bands 2 4 6 6
Number of Antennas (Diversity) 1 2 2 3
Number of Modulation formats 2 4 5 5
Data transmission rate (peak)? kb/s 14 160 1500 11,000
Transmit Peak-to-Average Ratio (worst) dB 4 dB 5 dB 5 dB 4 dB
Talk time minutes 90 120 160 200
Battery Voltage V 3.3 2.7 1.5 1.2
RF section area mm2 1800 1200 800 500
RF component thickness mm 2.5 1.5 1.5.MEMs 1.0,MEMS
From Portable emulator:
Average Component I/O Density I/O per cm2 70 80 100 140
Max Component I/O Density** I/O per cm2 280 320 350 450
I/O per Component, avg. # 3.6 4.0 4.4 5.0
Package I/O Pitch (Perimeter) mm 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Package I/O Pitch (Area array) mm 0.5 0.4 0.25 0.2
Max I/O per package I/O per pkg 256 288 312 360
Flip Chip I/O Pitch (Area) mm 0.25 0.25 0.20 0.10
Substrate Lines and Spaces microns 60 35 30 20
!
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Situation Analysis-BusinessSituation Analysis-Business
• Market downturn since mid-2000 has greatly impactedforecasted growth projections in the 2000 roadmap.
• Business models across the electronics industrycontinue to change, leading to significant shifts in rolesand responsibilities across the supply chain.
• As in the last NEMI Roadmap, supply chain managementoffers the greatest potential for increasing productivity.
• Manufacturing ramp-ups continue to accelerate in theportable and consumer segments.
• There has been a movement of manufacturing to Chinafrom both North America and Southeast Asia: a low-cost, highly skilled workforce, and a massive marketopportunity.
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Opto Forecast For Capital SpendingOpto Forecast For Capital Spending
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Direct Materials SourcingStrategic SourcingComponent & Supplier ManagementRFx ManagementChange Management
Product Data Management
Product Portfolio ManagementNPDI Intelligence
Program ManagementProject Management
Reporting
Product Data PublishingService Parts PlanningConfiguration Management
Product Structure (BOM)Document ManagementEngineering Change Mgt
Collaboration
Collaborative Product DesignProduct Design ToolsProcess Engineering
VisualizationCAD-to-CAD integration
Customer Needs ManagementRequirements Management
Preference AnalyticsETO/BTO/DTO
Data Flows
ERP
CRM
ERPSCMCRM
Product Lifecycle Management
ERP
PLIM As Depicted By AMR ResearchPLIM As Depicted By AMR Research
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Situation Analysis-RegulatorySituation Analysis-Regulatory
• Environmental legislation in various productsegments will require the electronics industry toshare detailed material content data of theirproducts and components.
• To meet regional legislative requirements,manufacturers must remove environmental“Materials of Concern,” such as lead, mercury,bromine and cadmium.
• Globally, the electronics industry is facing end-of-life or producer responsibility legislation.
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Table 2: Table 2: Restricted Materials TemplateRestricted Materials Template
!
Electronic Assembly(component,laminate,interconnect)!
Mechanical Assembly(plastic, metallichousings)
Other(Battery, backlight,cables, packaging,etc.)
!NorthAmerica
AsiaNorthAmerica Asia
NorthAmerica Asia
Pb !2006 ’00-'05
!20068 !
2002 Pre-’02!
Cd !2006
! !Pre-’02
! !Pre-’02
!
Hg ’02-’06 2006!
’02-’06 20068 !’02-’06 Pre-’02
!
Sb ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Cr(VI) !20068 ! !
20068 ! !Pre-’0211 !
OrganicBr/Cl
!20068 ’00-’05
! Pre-’0220068
! !20068 !
Europe EuropeEurope
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Situation Analysis-MarketSituation Analysis-Market
• The use of Cell Phones for web access is forecasted toexceed the use of personal computers for web access by2005-6.
• PC growth is forecasted to be low/stalled through 2003.
• The LCD industry will invest $40B in manufacturingcapacity for displays over the next several years to keepup with demand.
• Wireless networking and automotive entertainment areemerging as volume drivers.
• Wireless networking will grow to 2B units by 2006-2007.
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Situation Analysis-TechnologySituation Analysis-Technology
• Growth in silicon device size is slowing, and the rate ofreduction in feature size will resume its historic three-yearcycle.
• LCD and plasma displays are starting to encroach on theCRT market.
• MEMS technology is making new capabilities feasible suchas: displays; servo control for mass data storage, opticalswitches, laser tuning; RF components, passives; andmicro-batteries.
• System in Package (SiP) has emerged as the fastestgrowing packaging technology - although still representinga relatively small percentage of the unit volume.
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Identified Needs-Integrated DesignIdentified Needs-Integrated Design
• The extension of Moore’s Law beyond 2005 will require newpackaging technologies to reduce the cost of packaging.
• DfX areas need greater attention (e.g. Design for supply chainoptimization).
• Co-design of mechanical, thermal, rf, and electrical performanceof the entire chip, package, and system is a key cross-cuttingneed.
• Increased capability of design tools to handle technologiessuch as microvia and embedded passives.
• Improved communication between CAD designers and CAMusers in the distributed design/manufacturing environment.
• Simulation tools are needed by 2005 for optoelectronics andnano-electronics.
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Identified Needs-Environmental/RegulatoryIdentified Needs-Environmental/Regulatory
• New materials, components, and processes needto be developed, qualified, and introduced in2003-2006 to enhance recycleability, improveenergy efficiency, and reduce ecological impact.
• New efficient methods need to be developed andimplemented for data exchange of environmentalattributes. Clearly an area where industrystandard solutions are needed.
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Identified Needs- Manufacturing TechnologiesIdentified Needs- Manufacturing Technologies
• Board assembly will be challenged with providingmaterial control and identification standardsduring the transition between lead-free andeutectic materials and throughout the product lifecycle.
• For board assembly of optoelectronics to becompetitive in North America, it is important todevelop low-temperature soldering andautomated fiber handling and assembly.
• Cost improvements are needed to make flexibleautomation viable for all manufacturing.
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Table 1: Board Assembly - Conversion CostsTable 1: Board Assembly - Conversion CostsSummarySummary
First Year of Significant Production 2001 2003 2005 2007 2010 2013 2016!
!Parameter Metric
Cost
! !Automotive and Aerospace Products ¢÷I/O 2000 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5
! !
! ! ! !2002
!2.0 1.8 1.6
!1.6
! !
! !Consumer Products ¢÷I/O 2000 0.6 0.5 0.4 ! 0.22
! !
! ! ! !2002
!0.4 .35 0.3 0.2 0.15
! !
! !Portable Products ¢÷I/O 2000 0.65 0.5 .45
!0.3
! !
! ! ! !2002
!0.5 .45 0.40 0.3 0.3
! !
! !Office Systems Products ¢÷I/O 2000 0.32 0.29 .26
!0.19
! !
! ! ! !2002
!0.28 .25 0.23
! ! ! !
! !Business System Products ¢÷I/O 2000 1.0 0.8 .75
! !0.65
!
! ! ! !2002
!0.8 .75 0.7 0.65 0.6 0.55
!
!
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Identified Needs- Component/SubsystemIdentified Needs- Component/SubsystemTechnologiesTechnologies
• In-circuit test technologies that can be incorporated into thebuild process.
• Industry standards, design guidelines and tools for ceramicinterconnection substrates.
• Assembly processes and equipment that support integratingelectronics and optics into single packages.
• Improved optoelectronic subcomponents and materials thatallow automation will be the key to expanding the market.
• Low cost high volume optical connectors to expand opticalbroadband communications to the board and componentlevel.
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Paradigm ShiftsParadigm Shifts
• The convergence of broadband communicationsand digital technology has increased productopportunities while creating uncertainty inmarketing
• System in Package modules (ex. Bluetooth, WiFi(802.11b,a,g) and GSM (Global System for MobileCommunication )) is speeding the design of newportable and office system products and reducingrisk to the OEM.
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Comparison of Popular Wireless DataComparison of Popular Wireless DataCommunications StandardsCommunications Standards
! Bluetooth 802.11b 802.11a
Frequency 2.4GHz 2.4GHz 5GHz
Maximum Data Rate 1Mb/s 11Mb/s 54Mb/s
Maximum Power 100mW 100mW 50mW (5.15-5.25GHz)250mW (5.25-5.35GHz)1W (5.725-5.825GHz)
Modulation GFSK QPSK OFDM (64QAM)
GFSK (Gaussion Phase Shift Keying), QPSK (Quadrature Phase Shift Keying), OFDM (OrthogonalFrequency Division Multiplexing)
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Wireless Data Standards ComparisonWireless Data Standards Comparison
Fixed PointWireless LAN
Streaming Video
802.11a
Wireless Consumer DataCommunications Market
10kb/s 100kb/s 1Mb/s 10Mb/s 100Mb/s
802.11b
Bluetooth
COST
KeyboardsMice
Phone Line ModemsRF ID
TelemetryMeter Reading
…..
Computer CableReplacements
Mobile DataFixed Point
Wireless LANStreaming Video
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Strategic ConcernsStrategic Concerns
• EMS companies are being asked to provide R&Dleadership while keeping their overhead functionslow. This desire requires close collaboration withinthe Supply Chain.
• Rapid improvement in the productivity of design, test,and modeling software is becoming critical in DigitalSilicon, Packaging, Board Assembly, Modeling andSimulation, and Thermal Management.
• The China market and labor center is so large andunique that it must be addressed by OEMs, EMSproviders, and their suppliers.
• Business issues are as important as technologyneeds.
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ProductNeeds
TechnologyEvolution
GAPAnalysisResearch
Projects
NEMI Implementation Cycle
NEMI Roadmap Cycle
CompetitiveSolutions
RoadmapProject
Completion
Industry SolutionNeeded
Academia
Government
NEMIUsers & Suppliers
Collaborate
No WorkRequired
Availableto Market
Place
Broad IndustryParticipation
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Technology Integration Groups (TIGs)Technology Integration Groups (TIGs)
Co-Directors of Planning: Leslie Guth, LucentTechnologies; Srinivas Rao, Solectron
• Board Assembly– Chair: Tom Pearson, Intel– Co-Chair: Aichyun Shiah, PhD, Solectron
• Substrates– Chair: Hamid Azimi, Intel– Co-Chair: Jack Fisher, IPC
• Environmentally Conscious Electronics– Chair: Rick Charbonneau, StorageTek
• Factory Information Systems– Co-Chairs: John Cartwright, Intel
Barbara Goldstein, NIST• Optoelectronics
– Chair: Alan Rae, PhD, Cookson Electronics– Co-Chair: Peter Arrowsmith, PhD, Solectron
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SoftwareSolutions
B2B Collaboration
Materials
ComponentsDesign
Technology
MaterialsTransformation
Substrates TIGProjects:
• High Frequency HDI Materials• Advanced Embedded Passive Technology
(managed by NCMS)• Integral Passives Testing
Board Assembly TIGProjects:
• Test Strategy• Fiber Optic Splice Improvement• DPMO• Optoelectronics Solder Automation• Flip Chip & CSP Underfill
Factory Information Systems TIGProjects:
• Virtual Factory Information Interchange- Product Data Exchange (PDX) Standards
• Data Exchange Convergence Project- Technical Structure- Industry Adoption
Optoelectronics TIGProjects:
• Fiber Handling Processes• Fiber Optic Signal Performance• Optoelectronics for Substrates
Environmentally Conscious Electronics TIGProjects:
• Lead-Free Assembly• Tin Whiskers HAST• Tin Whisker Modeling• Lead-Free Hybrid Assembly & Rework
Business Leadership Team:
• Perfect Bill of Materials (BoM)• Engineering Collaboration
Build toOrder
Equipment
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Addressing the identified Gaps:Addressing the identified Gaps:2003 GAP Analysis Meetings2003 GAP Analysis Meetings
Alan RaeOMI, Ottawa3:00 - 5:005/1/2003Optoelectronics
Jim McElroyAPEX1:30 - 5:304/2/2002PLIM-Business Initiatives
Hamid AzimiAPEX3:15 - 5:153/31/2002Interconnect Substrates
Paul WilliamsAPEX3:15 - 5:153/31/2002Board Assembly
RickCharbonneau
Santa Clara,CA7:30 - 12:003/7/2003Environment (ECE)
LEADERLOCATIONTIMEDATETWG
2003 NEMI Gap Analysis Meetings
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Bottom LineBottom Line
• Today’s business metrics are the new reality– Learn to be profitable at these levels
vs.
– Continued red ink while waiting for upturn
• Growth of Electronics Mfg. in China is explosive– Today 7.5% of Electronics assembly in PRC
– Projected to be 35% by 2020 (Prismark Partners)
– Americas expected to shrink from 39.7% to 28%
• Component & equipment companies areresponding with varied approaches– Leadership
– Survival
– “Deer in the Headlights”
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Bottom LineBottom Line
• Innovative new products continue to driveindustry, but
• “Time to Commodity” is shrinking
• As rate of technology advancement slows, abilityto wring out cost can improve profitability (e.g.mass storage segment)
• Design as well as manufacturing is becomingmore distributed making collaboration and supplychain orchestration more challenging
• Industry collaboration through groups such asIPC and NEMI are an effective way to deal with thefuture.
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2004 NEMI Roadmap Changes & Goals 2004 NEMI Roadmap Changes & Goals
• Work more closely with the ITRS.
• Maintain strong linkages with other technology roadmaps.
• Strengthen Emulators by:– Separating Automotive and Defense
– Reviewing Key attribute Charts and making needed changes
– Change designation to Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)
– Expanding PEG participation utilizing T.C. input
– Completing Chapters for T.C. review at APEX 2004
– Add new Medical and SIP PEGs
• Only provide charted differences in Emulator predictions between 2002 and 2004.
• Move FIS area to Board Assembly TWG from PLIM.
• Move Embedded Passives to Substrate TWG from Passives TWG.
• Expand emphasis on identifying market needs and business situation throughoutroadmap.
• Clearly identify gaps and R&D needs in all TWG chapters.
• Complete Cross Cut issues earlier in the process.
• Limit Executive Summary to 35 pages.
• Limit Chapters to 50 pages.
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Proposed 2004 Product Emulator DescriptionsProposed 2004 Product Emulator Descriptions
Emulators Characteristics
Portable / Consumer High volume Consumer Products for which cost is the primary driver including Hand held, battery -powered products driven by size and weight reduction
System in a Package Complete function provided in a packag e to system manufacturer
Office Systems / Large Business Systems
Products which seek maximum performance from a few thousand dollar cost limit to literally no cost limit
Network / Datacom / Telecom Products
Products that serve the networking, datacom and telecom markets and cover a wide range of cost and performance targets
Specialty Emulators Defined by Operating Environment
Medical Products Products which must operate within a high reliability environment
Automotive Products which must operate in an automotiv e environment
Defense and Aerospace Products which must operate in extreme environments
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2004 Roadmap Structure - 18 TWGs2004 Roadmap Structure - 18 TWGs
Business Processes/TechnologiesProduct Lifecycle Information Management
Design TechnologiesModeling, Simulation, and Design ToolsThermal ManagementEnvironmentally Conscious Electronics
Manufacturing TechnologiesBoard AssemblyTest, Inspection, and MeasurementFinal Assembly
Component/Subsystem Technologies Digital Silicon Technology
ConnectorsPackagingInterconnection Substrates - OrganicInterconnection Substrates - CeramicPassive ComponentsRF ComponentsOptoelectronicsDisplaysMass Data StorageEnergy Storage Systems
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Why do Companies Participate in NEMIWhy do Companies Participate in NEMIRoadmap Activities?Roadmap Activities?
• Excellent opportunity to “test the NEMIcollaboration waters” without committing tomembership
• The experience leads to a better understanding ofthe “state of the art” in those areas ofparticipation
• Early access to the roadmap chapter’s technicaland business information for the participatingcompany
• Opportunity to shape the industry’s futurepriorities concerning R&D
• Opportunity to impact NEMI’s future directionthrough “technology gap” identification andsolutions most important to your company
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Why do Companies Participate in NEMIWhy do Companies Participate in NEMIRoadmap Activities? (continued)Roadmap Activities? (continued)
• Those who participate in the Roadmap creationget a broad view of the supply chain landscapefrom customers, competitors, and suppliers
• Roadmaps can become “self fulfillingprophecies” as many within Industry focus on theidentified challenges and benchmark theircompany against the user needs
• As General Dwight D. Eisenhower was fond ofsaying, “It’s not the Plan (that is created) but thePlanning (process) that provides maximuminsight”