NEMOMED8 performance in the Adriatic Sea: the first results

Natalija Dunić, Ivica Vilibić, Jadranka ŠepićNatalija Dunić, Ivica Vilibić, Jadranka Šepić

Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Croatia, sepic@izor.hrCroatia, sepic@izor.hr

Samuel SomotSamuel Somot

CNRS-GAME, Toulouse, FranceCNRS-GAME, Toulouse, France

Outline:

About Mediterranean climate modellingAbout NEMOMED8-ARPERA2 runVerification on dataDWF and BiOSConclusions et al.

About Mediterranean climate modelling

Most of them available through MedCordex community, https://www.medcordex.eu.

Several strong institutional groups engaged

About NEMOMED8-ARPERA2 run

period: 1958-2013 1/8° horizontal resolution,

varies approximately from 12 km in the south to 9 km in the north of the domain

43 inhomogeneous vertical z-levels

deformed around Gibraltar, to resolve strait dynamics, Atlantic buffer

ARPERA2 surface forcing: ARPEGE-Climate downscaling of ERA-40

rivers: RivDis database + Ludwig et al. (2009), Black Sea inflow as a river

Verification on data

Seasonal sygnal removed

Model fairly reproduce mean fields

Model overestimate temperature and salinity

Interannual variability strongly underestimated

Palagruža Sill transect

Verification on dataStations D1200, JP

Model underestimates dense water formation in the Adriatic

JP

D1200

Verification on dataHovmoller plotsCentral Palagruža Sill

Fair reproduction of the EMT Longer periodicity of interannual/decadal

thermohaline oscillations

Trends are not reproduced properly

Palagruža Sill - trendsVerification on data

Dense water transportsDWF and BiOS

Decadal variability in dense water formation Correlation with wintertime (NDJF) fluxes EMT-driven advection of low salinity waters in the

Adriatic stopped the DWF

Extreme winter of 2012DWF and BiOS

Although underestimating, extreme DWF dynamics have been reproduced qualitatively

NEMOMED8

ROMS/AladinJaneković et al., JGR, 2014

Decadal patterns obtained by SOM neural networks at the Palagruža Sill

DWF and BiOS

Fair reproduction of termohaline patterns, but not in time (except post-EMT period)

measurementsMihanović et al., JGR, 2015

model

BiOS not reproduced quantitativelyDWF and BiOS

NEMOMED8 BiOS do not follow observed BiOS Circulation is always cyclonic (although

oscillating in strength), the NIG gyre is located more to the southwest

Conclusions et al.

Not much people looked to the reproduction quality of 3D climate models in the Adriatic Sea this study is just a beginning (we hope)

NEMOMED8 river forcing do not include some major rivers, underestimate wintertime cooling and the DWF

NEMOMED8 climate model is qualitatively reproducing Adriatic dynamics, but qualitatively pretty far from reality

BiOS has not been properly modelled More advanced climate model should be applied –

NEMOMED12, with better forcing ALDERA run (Aladin-Climate) and better rivers