DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION ® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 07 March 2013 Europe/Switzerland Equity Research Food Producers (Food Producers & Processors (Europe)) Nestle (NESN.VX) COMMENT Keeping its powder dry We raise our TP to CHF76 and rating to Outperform, while marginally adjusting our 2013E–15E earnings on better margin progression. ■ Nestlé has been consistent—whether looking at 3, 5, 10, or 15 years, it has average organic EBITA growth of 8.75% pa. In this report we look at how this can be broadly maintained while adding a greater focus on returns. ■ Nestlé can be viewed as two distinct parts. A high growth, high margin, high return ‘legacy’ powders business (brands: Nescafe, Milo, NAN), 45% of 2012 sales, and a non-powders business (frozen food, water, ice cream), for which the reverse is the case. ■ The powders business has seen heavy investment in developing market capacity, start-up innovations (launch of Dolce Gusto) and escalation in commodity prices diluting margins and returns progression. We see these factors easing in the coming 12–24 months. ■ The rest of the group has seen significant invested capital sunk over the last 12 years, yet growth, margins and returns are below the group average. We calculate 20-25% of Nestlé’s invested capital does not cover the group WACC, all in this part of the business. But increasingly the group is focusing on cash flow and returns (as is remuneration). There are several businesses here that we expect to be scrutinised. ■ The stock trades at parity with staples peers on a PER basis, but at a discount on our return screens. The increased focus on returns, and their improvement, can, in our opinion, re-rate the stock relative to its peers. Combining a re-rating with mid-quartile TSR +11% pa to staples peers, should deliver outperformance. We raise our APV-derived target price to CHF76 and rating to Outperform. Share price performance 47 52 57 62 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Price Price relative The price relative chart measures performance against the SMI PRICE which closed at 7740.3 on 05/03/13 On 05/03/13 the spot exchange rate was SFr1.23/Eu 1. - Eu .77/US$1 Performance Over 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) 5.4 9.3 20.4 Relative (%) 0.3 -2.7 -7.6 Financial and valuation metrics Year 12/12A 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Revenue (SFr m) 92,186 98,529 104,601 111,100 EBITDA (SFr m) 17,162 18,173 19,551 21,042 Adjusted Net Income (SFr m) 10,493.5 11,112.1 12,115.5 13,214.2 CS adj. EPS (SFr) 3.29 3.46 3.74 4.05 Prev. EPS (SFr) — 3.42 3.70 4.01 ROIC (%) 12.90 13.48 14.42 15.42 P/E (adj., x) 20.3 19.3 17.8 16.5 P/E rel. (%) 130 134 138 142 EV/EBITDA 12.9 11.9 10.9 10.0 Dividend (2012E, SFr) 2.17 IC (12/13E, SFr m) 80,356.44 Dividend yield (%) 3.3 EV/IC 2.7 Net debt (12/13E, SFr m) 14,205.6 Net debt/equity (12/13E, %) 21.5 Free float (%) 100.0 BV/share (12/13E, SFr) 20.1 Number of shares (m) 3,224.80 Source: FTI, Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse Securities (EUROPE) LTD. Estimates. Rating (from Neutral) OUTPERFORM* Price (05 Mar 13, SFr) 66.60 Target price (SFr) (from 62.00) 76.00¹ Market cap. (SFr m) 214,771.68 Enterprise value (SFr m) 216,866.7 *Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each analyst's or each team's respective sector. ¹Target price is for 12 months. Research Analysts Nicolas Sochovsky 44 20 7883 8075 [email protected]Charlie Mills 44 20 7888 0325 [email protected]Alex Molloy 41 44 333 05 83 [email protected]Sanjeet Aujla 44 20 7888 0353 [email protected]Jimmie Bork 44 20 7883 9941 [email protected]
Transcript
DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION®
EBIT 14,012 14,836 16,036 17,336 Net interest (454) (482) (376) (220) Cash taxes paid (3,201) (3,822) (4,174) (4,567) Change in working capital 1,988 (170) (100) (110) Other cash & non-cash items 3,427 3,337 3,515 3,706 Cash flow from operations 15,772 13,699 14,901 16,145 CAPEX (5,135) (4,328) (4,608) (4,909) Free cash flow to the firm 10,637 9,371 10,292 11,236 Acquisitions (10,918) — — — Divestments 274 1,237 130 130 Other investment/(outflows) 2,302 — — — Cash flow from investments (14,053) (3,689) (5,100) (5,425) Net share issue/(repurchase) 667 — — — Dividends paid (6,439) (6,532) (6,958) (7,435) Issuance (retirement) of debt — — — — Other 446 468 492 516 Cash flow from financing activities
(5,326) (6,064) (6,466) (6,919) Effect of exchange rates (226) — — — Changes in Net Cash/Debt (3,833) 3,946 3,334 3,801 . Net debt at start 14,319 18,152 14,206 10,871 Change in net debt 3,833 (3,946) (3,334) (3,801) Net debt at end 18,152 14,206 10,871 7,071
Balance sheet (SFr m) 12/12A 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E
Assets Cash and cash equivalents 9,425 13,371 16,706 20,506 Accounts receivable 14,432 15,425 16,376 17,393 Inventory 9,125 9,753 10,354 10,997 Other current assets 2,223 1,488 1,544 1,603 Total current assets 35,205 40,037 44,979 50,500 Total fixed assets 26,903 28,932 31,086 33,374 Intangible assets and goodwill 46,258 46,162 46,066 45,970 Investment securities — — — — Other assets 17,863 18,063 18,254 18,459 Total assets 126,229 133,194 140,385 148,302 Liabilities Accounts payable 14,455 15,450 16,402 17,421 Short-term debt 18,568 18,568 18,568 18,568 Other short term liabilities 5,288 5,652 6,000 6,373 Total current liabilities 38,311 39,669 40,970 42,362 Long-term debt 9,009 9,009 9,009 9,009 Other liabilities 16,305 18,365 20,101 21,946 Total liabilities 63,625 67,043 70,080 73,317 Shareholders' equity 60,947 64,494 68,648 73,328 Minority interest 1,657 1,657 1,657 1,657 Total equity & liabilities 126,229 133,194 140,385 148,302 Net debt (SFr m) 18,152 14,206 10,871 7,071
margins are above the group average, driving positive
geographic mix (2012)
Figure 4: …Non-powders operations still have room for
improvement in margin and returns, we estimate 20-25% of
group’s invested capital not covering cost of capital
Nestle
L'OrealUnilever
Reckitt
Henkel
Beiersdorf
ABI
SABCarlsberg
Danone
Pernod
Diageo
IMPS
BAT
Colgate
Kraft
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Deve
lope
d w
orld
mar
gin
Developing market margin
Emerging market margins higher
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Inve
ste
d C
ap
ital (
CH
F, 0
00
's)
RO
IC, 2
01
2
Invested capital ROIC
20-25% of group's invested capital < cost of capital
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research
Figure 5: Forecast increased emphasis on returns should
result in step up in returns, most pronounced on ex
goodwill basis
Figure 6: …based on 2016 forecasts on an EV/IC to
ROIC/WACC basis Nestlé looks undervalued relative to
peers
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014E 2016E
ROIC excluding goodwill ROIC including goodwill
Nestle
Carlsberg
SAB
Diageo
Pernod
Danone
ABI
Unilever
Henkel
L'OrealReckitt
Oriflame
R² = 0.9522
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
EV
/IC
ROIC/WACC
Overvalued relative to
sector
Undervalued relative
to sector
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
07 March 2013
Nestle (NESN.VX) 4
Table of contents Nestle NESN.VX 2 Key charts 3 Background—2000, a crossroads for Nestlé 5 The pow(d)er behind group performance 9 Non-powders 13 Focus on capital 18
ROIC by sub category—renewed management focus 18 Working capital, an opportunity? 21 What does this view of Nestlé tell us? 22
Modelling Nestlé 23 1: What is the likelihood of it selling L’Oreal stake? 23 2: 2013 outlook 24 3: Long term: more A&P? 24 Longer-term outlook 25
Nestlé valuation 28 Credit Suisse PEERs 33
07 March 2013
Nestle (NESN.VX) 5
Background—2000, a crossroads for Nestlé In early 2000, Peter Brabeck-Letmathe, at the time CEO of Nestlé for three years,
presented a paper to the Board that set out his vision of transforming the company—that it
could become a food, cosmetic and pharmaceutical company, and at the heart of this
strategic change, the group would/should take a majority stake in L’Oréal.
This was a far-reaching and significant change for what had historically been an extremely
conservative company, and was rejected by the board of directors and the bankers.
However it resonated with many, and a watered-down approach was adopted as Nestlé
set off in the direction of “Health, Wellness and Nutrition”.
Incidentally this is part of the reason why we believe Nestlé is unlikely to buy L’Oréal,
together with the limited overlap, synergies, etc. But more on that later.
It seems easy to point to this fundamental trend in the food industry today, but had
investors known at the time how radical the changes were about to be at Nestlé, they
might have been more than a little surprised.
A step up in M&A followed
As Figure 7 shows, between 2000 and 2012, Nestlé’s M&A activity stepped up. Most of
the focus was on the group’s non-powders operations. These businesses were sub-scale,
with low growth, low margins and low returns. Over that period Nestlé has spent over
CHF70bn largely (but not exclusively) on building out these areas, gaining critical mass.
Some areas have not fitted—there has been CHF47bn of disposals as well (largely but not
exclusively Alcon at CHF39bn).
07 March 2013
Nestle (NESN.VX) 6
Figure 7: M&A history
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Non-powders
Pet Food Friskies (1985) Alpo (1994) Ralston Purina
(2001)
Spillers (1998) Waggin Train
(2010)
Ice Cream Motta (1993) Dreyers (2003)
Scholler (2001)
Haagen-Dazs
(2001)
Movenpick
(2003)
Water Perrier (1992)
San Pellegrino
(1998)
Chilled Dairy Chambourcy
(1978)
Nutrition Powerbar
(2000)
Vitaflo (2010)
Jenny Craig
(2006)
Prometheus
(2011)
Novartis Medical
(2007)
Q Med (2011)
Gerber (2007) Chi Med (2012)
Frozen/chilled Food Stouffer (1973) Buitoni (1988) Chef America
(2002)
Kraft Pizza
(2010)
Thomy (1971)
Stakes L'Oreal (1974)
Alcon (1977)
Confectionery Rowntree
(1988)
Hsu Fu Chi
(2011)
Powders
Infant milk formula Wyeth (2012)
Milk Yinlu Foods
(2011)
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research
Despite the material M&A the powders operations, what might be described as its legacy
businesses of coffee, culinary (Maggi), milk powders, powdered beverages and infant
nutrition remain significant. As Figure 8 shows, the powders operations still account for
45% of its sales (2012) and we estimate over 55% of profits.
07 March 2013
Nestle (NESN.VX) 7
Figure 8: Nestlé sales breakdown 2012
Chocolate11%
Cereals
1%
Frozen food
7%
Chilled food2%
Petfood
12%
Ice Cream
5%
Nutrition
3%
Coffee Creamers
2%
Water
8%
Nespresso
4%
Coffee
11%
Powdered beverages
6%
Milk Powder
12%
Infant Formula
9%
Culinary/Ambient
7%
Powders
45%
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
This report
A decade of expanding through acquisition and organically has built a better business.
Indeed Nestlé has an extremely consistent record over any time frame. Whether looked at
over 3, 5, 10 or 15 years the group has averaged organic EBITA growth of 8.75%, and the
components behind that have also been markedly steady.
Figure 9: Components to organic EBITA growth, 3yr vs 5yr, 10yr and 15yr
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
3yr CAGR 5 yr CAGR 10 yr CAGR 15 yr CAGR
RIG Price margin progression
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research
07 March 2013
Nestle (NESN.VX) 8
For 10 years investors have focused on the organic performance, be it RIG, organic
growth or margin.
What has been most striking of late is the increasing commentary coming from Nestlé on
returns.
■ At the Shanghai investor presentation working capital was very much front of mind.
Virtually every presentation by the business units focused on it.
■ On the full year roadshow the group was talking more about return on capital and
capital allocation than before.
This is not meant to imply that ROIC has not been an important metric in the past, but
rather we think it is becoming increasingly important in decision-making at the group. We
see no better way of illustrating this than in 2013 management remuneration, which will be
based on growth, EBITA, FCF (previously working capital) and, for the first time, return on
capital.
So we divide our thoughts on Nestlé into two distinct parts:
■ The high growth, high margin, high return legacy powders businesses.
■ The rest of the group, where significant invested capital has been sunk over the last
12 years, and growth and margins are below group average as indeed are returns.
What are the implications of this?
07 March 2013
Nestle (NESN.VX) 9
The pow(d)er behind group performance Powders are the easiest product form in which to transport and sell branded food (long
shelf life, multiple pack sizes, production scale). The result—Nestlé was able to rapidly
globalise its reach, even in the early part of the last century. Nestlé built, organically,
global leadership in these categories, meaning the high margins translate into very high
returns.
Powders – higher growth
Although the brands are old (Nescafe is 75 years old in 2013) the powder operations
growth profile benefits from 65% of 2012 sales being in developing markets.
Figure 10: Developed versus developing market split by category
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Developed market Developing market
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Driven by the powder franchises’ dominant market share, Nestlé’s developing market
sales growth rate has been particularly strong in the last two years, as it recouped the
spike in raw material price inflation without great volume slippage.
Figure 11: Nestlé’s developing market sales growth versus peers
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Sector average developed market growth Nestle's developing market growth
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research
07 March 2013
Nestle (NESN.VX) 10
This meant Nestlé’s growth accelerated above its global peers’ developing market growth
rates. Importantly, organic investment (capex) is now being spent behind the high
returning powders franchises—powdered beverages now accounts for 25% of capex
spend 2012 double the rate of five years ago.
The mind-set change and the growth opportunity is best summed up, in our view, by an
increasingly used measurement at Nestlé—capacity availability—rather than capacity
utilisation, as plants that wait until their utilisation rates reach 85% in markets that are
growing at 20% pa will constrain the company's future growth. The recent pull back to peer
group growth rates in developing markets is a reflection of the normalisation in pricing as
cost inflation is set to be immaterial in 2013.
Powders—high margin
The powder operation’s structurally high EBITA margins explain why Nestlé’s developing
market operations generate higher EBITA margins than the group average. The result—
Nestlé does not suffer from negative geographic mix, unlike the majority of its food and
beverage peers.
Figure 12: Powders operating performance versus non-powders
CoffeePowdered Bev
Milk Powders
Infant NutritionCulinary/Ambient
Nespresso
WaterCoffee Creamers
NutritionIce Cream Cereals
Chilled Foods
Frozen
PetfoodChocolate
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
2009
-12
Sal
es C
AG
R
EBITA Margins 2012
Powders faster growth and
higher margins - ac 45% of
sales and 55% of EBITA
Non-powders lower growth
and margins - ac 55% of
sales and 45% of EBITA.
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
07 March 2013
Nestle (NESN.VX) 11
Figure 13: Developing market vs developed market margins (2012)
Nestle
L'OrealUnilever
Reckitt
Henkel
Beiersdorf
ABI
SABCarlsberg
Danone
Pernod
Diageo
IMPS
BAT
Colgate
Kraft
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
De
velo
pe
d w
orl
d m
argi
n
Emerging market margin
Emerging market margins higher
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
The heavy investment in emerging market capacity (greenfield sites in Africa), start-up
innovations such as the global roll out of Nescafe Dolce Gusto (made a small profit in
2012 on CHF1bn in sales five years after launch) and the escalation in commodity prices
diluted the powder franchises EBITA margin progression. We estimate in aggregate the
powder franchises margins have fallen by circa 150bp. We calculate that a recovery in
the powder franchises margins to their previous high translates into group wide
margin uplift of circa 75bp.
Figure 14: Change in powdered franchises EBITA margins
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
2007 2012 Group margin pre unaollcated items 2012
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates. Note 2007 adjusted for change to IFRS accounting
(netting off of trade promo form sales)
Powders margins have
fallen in last few years given
focus on sales growth
07 March 2013
Nestle (NESN.VX) 12
Summary
So Powders have:
■ Higher growth
■ Higher Emerging Market exposure
■ Higher margins
■ And higher returns
This last point we have not yet touched on, but will do so in the section below. It is
instructive to look at the returns in these legacy businesses when looking at those in
businesses that have been built out over the last 10-12 years, where the invested capital
has significantly increased.
07 March 2013
Nestle (NESN.VX) 13
Non-powders Non-powders: Sales growth
The significant investment (M&A) in non-powders of the last decade+ has built out these
businesses and given them critical mass. However it has not added incrementally to
Nestlé’s group growth. Looking at the last 2 years in isolation, it is striking that all these
areas (Nespresso the exception) have shown less organic growth than the legacy/core
powders businesses.
Figure 15: Powders vs non powders organic sales growth, 2010-12
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
In part this reflects the Developed Market skew in these businesses—we repeat the chart
showing these non-powder businesses in Figure 16, which highlights only c20% of non-
powder sales are in Emerging markets compared to powders, which are two-thirds
Emerging Markets.
Figure 16: Developed versus developing market split by category
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Developed market Developing market
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Non-powders over-skewed
to developed markets
impacting sales growth
07 March 2013
Nestle (NESN.VX) 14
Perhaps it is fairer instead to compare Nestlé’s organic growth in the developed world with
that of its peers—which shows Nestlé has got consistently more from these mature
developed economies than its peers, outperforming the sector quarter in, quarter out.
Figure 17: Nestlé’s developed market organic sales growth rate versus peers
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Sector average developed market growth Nestle's Developed market growth
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research
Margin: Non-powders margin
In contrast to the powders business, the non-powders have seen improved returns
(margins) over the past five years.
■ Over the period, non-powders’ margin progression has slowed to +50bp pa, after more
sizeable changes between 1996 and 2008.
■ This is primarily due to the end of the material portfolio change, which saw the
acquisition of higher value-added segments (nutrition, dry pet food) and the sale of
Source: Credit Suisse HOLT®. CFROI, HOLT, and ValueSearch are trademarks or registered trademarks of Credit Suisse Group AG or its affiliates in the United States and other countries.
* Operating margin (yellow) is EBITDA (grey) plus rental expense and R&D expense
Credit Suisse PEERs We show below the Credit Suisse PEERs relationship map for Nestlé. PEERs is a global
database that captures unique information about companies within the Credit Suisse
coverage universe based on their relationships with other companies – their customers,
suppliers and competitors. The database is built from our research analysts’ insight
regarding these relationships. Credit Suisse covers over 3,000 companies globally. These
companies form the core of the PEERs database, but it also includes relationships on
stocks that are not under coverage.
Figure 45: Nestle PEERs map
Source: Credit Suisse PEERs research
07 March 2013
Nestle (NESN.VX) 34
Companies Mentioned (Price as of 05-Mar-2013)
Associated British Foods (ABF.L, 1866.0p) Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI.BR, €72.5) British American Tobacco (BATS.L, 3566.0p) Beiersdorf (BEIG.DE, €67.24) Carlsberg (CARLb.CO, Dkr595.0) Christian Hansen Holding (CHRH.CO, Dkr207.9) Colgate-Palmolive (CL.N, $115.71) Campbell Soup Company (CPB.N, $41.69) Danone (DANO.PA, €54.8) Diageo (DGE.L, 1996.0p) General Mills (GIS.N, $46.49) Henkel (HNKG_p.F, €68.646) The Hershey Company (HSY.N, $85.2) Imperial Tobacco (IMT.L, 2443.0p) Kellogg Company (K.N, $61.42) Kraft Foods Group (KRFT.OQ, $49.19) Nestle (NESN.VX, SFr66.6, OUTPERFORM, TP SFr76.0) L'Oreal (OREP.PA, €115.8) Oriflame Cosmetics (ORIsdb.ST, Skr228.2) Pernod-Ricard (PERP.PA, €99.11) Philip Morris International (PM.N, $92.28) Reckitt Benckiser (RB.L, 4522.0p) SABMiller (SAB.L, 3383.5p) Swedish Match (SWMA.ST, Skr214.1) Tate & Lyle (TATE.L, 840.0p) Unilever (UNc.AS, €30.69)
Disclosure Appendix
Important Global Disclosures
Alex Molloy, Charlie Mills, Nicolas Sochovsky, Sanjeet Aujla, Jimmie Bork, each certify, with respect to the companies or securities that the individual analyzes, that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Price and Rating History for Nestle (NESN.VX)
NESN.VX Closing Price Target Price
Date (SFr) (SFr) Rating
30-Nov-10 54.55 60.00 N
09-Jun-11 53.15 55.00
11-Jul-11 52.20 R
16-Dec-11 51.20 58.00 N
13-Aug-12 60.45 62.00
* Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.
N EU T RA L
REST RICT ED
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received Compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities
As of December 10, 2012 Analysts’ stock rating are defined as follows:
Outperform (O) : The stock’s total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark*over the next 12 months.
Neutral (N) : The stock’s total return is expected to be in line with the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.
Underperform (U) : The stock’s total return is expected to underperform the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.
*Relevant benchmark by region: As of 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperfo rms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. As of 2nd October 2012, U.S. and Canadian as well as European ra tings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperform s representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. For Latin American and non-Japan Asia stocks, ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark; Australia, New Zealand are, and prior to 2nd October 2012 U.S. and Canadian ratings were based on (1) a stock’s absolute total return potential to its current share price and (2) the relative attractiveness of a stock’s total return potential within an analyst’s coverage universe. For Australian and New Zealand stocks, 12 -month rolling yield is incorporated in the absolute total return calculation and a 15% and a 7.5% threshold replace the 10-15% level in the Outperform and Underperform stock rating definitions, respectively. The 15% and
07 March 2013
Nestle (NESN.VX) 35
7.5% thresholds replace the +10-15% and -10-15% levels in the Neutral stock rating definition, respectively. Prior to 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings were based on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark.
Restricted (R) : In certain circumstances, Credit Suisse policy and/or applicable law and regulations preclude certain types of communications, including an investment recommendation, during the course of Credit Suisse's engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain other circumstances.
Volatility Indicator [V] : A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has moved up or down by 20% or more in a month in at least 8 of the past 24 months or the analyst expects significant volatility going forward.
Analysts’ sector weightings are distinct from analysts’ stock ratings and are based on the analyst’s expectations for the fundamentals and/or valuation of the sector* relative to the group’s historic fundamentals and/or valuation:
Overweight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is favorable over the next 12 months.
Market Weight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is neutral over the next 12 months.
Underweight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is cautious over the next 12 months.
*An analyst’s coverage sector consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector. An analyst may cover multiple sectors.
Credit Suisse's distribution of stock ratings (and banking clients) is:
Global Ratings Distribution
Rating Versus universe (%) Of which banking clients (%)
Outperform/Buy* 43% (54% banking clients)
Neutral/Hold* 38% (47% banking clients)
Underperform/Sell* 16% (39% banking clients)
Restricted 3%
*For purposes of the NYSE and NASD ratings distribution disclosure requirements, our stock ratings of Outperform, Neutral, an d Underperform most closely correspond to Buy, Hold, and Sell, respectively; however, the meanings are not the same, as our stock ratings are determined on a relative basis. (Please refer to definitions above.) An investor's decision to buy or sell a security should be based on investment objectives, current holdin gs, and other individual factors.
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Price Target: (12 months) for Nestle (NESN.VX)
Method: Our price target is based on our APV (adjusted present value), a hybrid DCF that splits the operating cash flows (discounted at an 8.5% cost of equity), and the tax shield (discounted at the cost of debt). A terminal growth rate of 2.5% is assumed
Risk: Significant movements in raw material costs or currency can impact the business, as can irrational behaviour by either competitors or retailers. Food scares, shortages, or contamination can also impact the business.
Please refer to the firm's disclosure website at www.credit-suisse.com/researchdisclosures for the definitions of abbreviations typically used in the target price method and risk sections.
See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names
The subject company (NESN.VX) currently is, or was during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of this report, a client of Credit Suisse.
Credit Suisse provided investment banking services to the subject company (NESN.VX) within the past 12 months.
Credit Suisse provided non-investment banking services to the subject company (NESN.VX) within the past 12 months
Credit Suisse has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company (NESN.VX) within the past 12 months.
Credit Suisse has received investment banking related compensation from the subject company (NESN.VX) within the past 12 months
Credit Suisse expects to receive or intends to seek investment banking related compensation from the subject company (NESN.VX) within the next 3 months.
Credit Suisse has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from the subject company (NESN.VX) within the past 12 months
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As of the end of the preceding month, Credit Suisse beneficially own 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of (NESN.VX).
Important Regional Disclosures
Singapore recipients should contact Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch for any matters arising from this research report.
The analyst(s) involved in the preparation of this report have not visited the material operations of the subject company (NESN.VX) within the past 12 months
Restrictions on certain Canadian securities are indicated by the following abbreviations: NVS--Non-Voting shares; RVS--Restricted Voting Shares; SVS--Subordinate Voting Shares.
Individuals receiving this report from a Canadian investment dealer that is not affiliated with Credit Suisse should be advised that this report may not contain regulatory disclosures the non-affiliated Canadian investment dealer would be required to make if this were its own report.
For Credit Suisse Securities (Canada), Inc.'s policies and procedures regarding the dissemination of equity research, please visit http://www.csfb.com/legal_terms/canada_research_policy.shtml.
The following disclosed European company/ies have estimates that comply with IFRS: (NESN.VX).
Credit Suisse has sent extracts of this research report to the subject company (NESN.VX) prior to publication for the purpose of verifying factual accuracy. Based on information provided by the subject company, factual changes have been made as a result.
As of the date of this report, Credit Suisse acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the equities securities that are the subject of this report.
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To the extent this is a report authored in whole or in part by a non-U.S. analyst and is made available in the U.S., the following are important disclosures regarding any non-U.S. analyst contributors: The non-U.S. research analysts listed below (if any) are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. The non-U.S. research analysts listed below may not be associated persons of CSSU and therefore may not be subject to the NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited....................................... Alex Molloy ; Charlie Mills ; Nicolas Sochovsky ; Sanjeet Aujla ; Jimmie Bork
Important Credit Suisse HOLT Disclosures
With respect to the analysis in this report based on the Credit Suisse HOLT methodology, Credit Suisse certifies that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the Credit Suisse HOLT methodology and (2) no part of the Firm’s compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific views disclosed in this report
The Credit Suisse HOLT methodology does not assign ratings to a security. It is an analytical tool that involves use of a set of proprietary quantitative algorithms and warranted value calculations, collectively called the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model, that are consistently applied to all the companies included in its database. Third-part data (including consensus earnings estimates) are systematically translated into a number of default algorithms available in the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model. The source financial statement, pricing, and earnings data provided by outside data vendors are subject to quality control and may also be adjusted to more closely measure the underlying economics of firm performance. The adjustments provide consistency when analyzing a single company across time, or analyzing multiple companies across industries or national borders. The default scenario that is produced by the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model establishes the baseline valuation for a security, and a user then may adjust the default variables to produce alternative scenarios, any of which could occur.
Additional information about the Credit Suisse HOLT methodology is available on request.
The Credit Suisse HOLT methodology does not assign a price target to a security. The default scenario that is produced by the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model establishes a warranted price for a security, and as the third-party data are updated, the warranted price may also change. The default variable may also be adjusted to produce alternative warranted prices, any of which could occur.
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For Credit Suisse disclosure information on other companies mentioned in this report, please visit the website at www.credit-suisse.com/researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683.
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