NETL Coal Fired Plant Tracker

7/31/2019 NETL Coal Fired Plant Tracker

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Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants(data update 1/13/2012)

January 13, 2012

National Energy Technology Laboratory

Office of Strategic Energy Analysis & PlanningErik Shuster


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Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants

This report is intended to provide an overview of proposed new coal-fired

power plants that are under development. This report may not representall possible plants under consideration but is intended to illustrate thepotential that exists for installation of new coal-fired power plants.Additional perspective has been added for non-coal-fired generationadditions in the U.S. and coal-fired power plant activity in China.

Experience has shown that public announcements of power plantdevelopments do not provide an accurate representation of eventuallycommissioned power plants. Actual plant capacity commissioned hashistorically been significantly less then new capacity announced.

The report focuses on those coal-fired power plant projects that haveachieved significant progress toward completion, to provide a more

accurate assessment of the ability of this segment of the power generationindustry to support demand for new electricity capacity in various regionsof the United States.

The Department of Energy does not warrant the accuracy orsuitability of this information.


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Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants

This report provides a perspective of coal-fired power plants thatare currently under development, with a focus on those havingmade significant progress toward achieving commercialoperation

The status of projects identified varies from projectannouncements to those under construction

Announced projects are not necessarily strong indicators ofcommitment of capital and human resources to actualdevelopment and follow-through to actual capacity additions ishighly dependent on the market environment

Plants that are permitted or under construction (ProgressingProjects) reflect a more significant financial and human resourcecommitment to completion and offer a better perspective of thenew generation capacity that may be forthcoming


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Past Capacity Announcements vs. ActualFigure 1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1820

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Capacity

(GW)

Actual 2002 Report 2005 Report 2007 Report 2012 Report

Delays in Implementation

Actual capacity completed has been shown to be significantly less than proposed capacity;the 2002 report listed 11,455 MW of proposed capacity for the year 2005 when only 329 MW were constructed.

Source: 2007 & 2012 data Ventyx Velocity Suite2002 2005 data Previous NETL Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants Reports


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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1820

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Capacity

(GW)

Actual 2012 2010 2009 2008

64 GW32 GW28 GW 49 GW16 GW

Latest Capacity Announcements vs. ActualFigure 1a

Totals

Total Identified Capacity Declines Due to Commissioning, Cancelations, and Fewer Postponements

Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite2012 data 1/13/2012


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Current Coal-Fired Capacity Projects (Annual Change)Table 1

Status Listing Description

Under Construction Project is under construction.

Near Construction Project has been approved; majority or all permits are obtained. Sponsor is contracting vendors and Engineering,Procurement and Construction (EPC) contractors. Site preparation has begun.

Permitted In the permitting phase. Two or more permits approved or fuel or power contracts have been negotiated.

Announced Early stages of development to filing for permits. May include a feasibility study.

ProgressingProjects

UncertainPotential and

Timing

Source: Ventyx Velocity SuiteData reflects change between 12/13/2010 and 1/13/2012

Number of Plants Capacity (MW)

General Status Dec2010

Jan

2012Net

ChangeDec

2010

Jan

2012Net

Change

Under Construction 12 10 -2 7,619 6,519 -1,100

Near Construction 1 1 0 320 320 0

Permitted 8 13 5 6,446 8,934 2,488

SUB TOTAL 21 24 3 14,385 15,773 1,388

Announced (early stages ofdevelopment) 36 24 -12 17,385 11,871 -5,514

TOTAL 57 48 -9 32,259 27,644 -4,615

Commissioned this Period - 5 5 - 2,343 2,343

TOTAL December 2011

Progressing and Commissioned53 -4 29,987 -2,272


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Current Capacity Additions by YearsRefer to Table 1

Table 1 reflects the current status of coal-fired plant development activity as ofJanuary 13, 2012 and shows the nominal annual change (December 13, 2010 through

January 13, 2012)

Progressing plants represent projects with status indicating permitted,

near construction, or under construction

Progressing plants have attained a higher likelihood of advancing toward

commercial operation; however, regulatory uncertainty, market perception and

industry cost increases continue to impact development decisions for all projects

2,343 MW (6 units at 5 plants) have become operational during 2011 & Jan 2012

There has been a net increase of 1,388 MW (+10%) of total Progressing and/or

Commissionedprojects through 2011 over Progressingprojects in January


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Current Coal Capacity Additions by YearsFigure 2

Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Capacity(GW)

Announced

Permitted

Near Construction

Under Construction

Actual

Commissionedin 2011 & Jan 2012 Dry Fork (390 MW) Oak Creek (615 MW) Point Comfort (310 MW) Whelan (220 MW) Longview (808 MW)

Operational Dates

ProposedActual


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Currently Proposed and ForecastedCoal-Fired Capacity

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Capacity(GW)

Proposed-Progressing Proposed-Announced EIA AEO 2011

Virtually No New Coal inReference case Following

Several CCS Demos


EIA AEO 2011, Reference Case

Figure 3


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Last 50 Years of New Coal Capacity

0

24

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

GWsofNewCapacity

Largest Build Since 1985


Figure 4


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Net Capacity Changes (Removed and Added Opportunities)

-2

-1

0

1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2017

Capacity

(GW)

Proposed Online Year

Under Construction Near Construction Permitted Announced Added Announcements

Capacity Change Breakdown

2,343 MW operational now removedfrom the list

2,890 MW canceled

1,325 MW permitted canceled

1,565 MW announcementscanceled

Removed Capacity

32%of MWs removed represent Announced projects48% of MWs removed due to Commissioned plants

R

emovedCapacity

Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (12/13/2010 and 12/13/2012)

Total Net Reductions (less operating) -2,272 MW

Figure 5

Commissionedin Dec 2010 - Jan 2012 Dry Fork (390 MW) Oak Creek (615 MW) Point Comfort (310 MW) Whelan (220 MW) Longview (808 MW)


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Technology

ListingsOperational(Since 2000)

Progressing(Permitted, Near-, and Under

Construction)

Announced TotalProposed

December

2010

Jan 2012

(Change)

December

2010

Jan 2012

(Change)

December

2010

Jan 2012

(Change)

PC Subcritical 31 5 4 (-1) 10 7 (-3) 15 11 (-4)

CFB 12 4 6 (-2) 9 4 (-5) 13 10 (-3)

PC Supercritical 7 7 7 (0) 4 2 (-2) 11 9 (-2)

IGCC 1 5 7 (2) 13 11 (-2) 18 18 (0)

Source: Ventyx Velocity SuiteData collected (12/13/2010); Current Report data collected (1/13/2012)

Proposed Technologies of New Plants(with Annual change)

Figure 6

Table 2

0

10

20

4 67 7

7 4 2

11

NumberofPlan

ts

Announced

Progressing


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Geographical location by State: Coal-Fired Plants(Permitted, Near Construction, and Under Construction)

Figure 7



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Location by NERC Regions: Coal-Fired Plants(Permitted, Near Construction, and Under Construction)


Figure 8


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Specified Coal RanksAll Proposed Plants

Figure 9


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

ProposedPlantCapacities(MW)

16,790 MW Generic Coalnot shown on chart


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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8090

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Capacity(GW)

Coal-Fired Build RateChina and United States

Figure 10

Source: USA data - Ventyx Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)

China data Platts - UDI WEPPDB December 2011

Online Year

Results are Stacked

273 GW ofUndetermined Dates

of Chinese Plants

Planned no date(evenly distributedover 4 years)


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Coal-Fired Power Plants Retirements

Recently announced retirements of currently operating

coal-fired power plants with retirement date from 2012 -2020


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Current Coal Capacity Additions/Retirements by YearsFigure 2a


-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Capacity(GW)

Announced

Permitted

Near Construction

Under Construction

Actual Constructed

Proposed Retirements

Retired

Operational Dates (above) / Retirement Dates (below)

ProposedActual

24.7 GW of specificannounced plant retirements(does not include general companyannounced retirements that do notinclude a specific unit)


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Announced Coal-Fired Retirements(2012 2020)

Total retirement capacity at the plant level

24.7 GW of specificannounced plant

retirements


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0

20

40

60

80

100

0 200 400 600 800

CapacityFactor(%)

Size (MW)

Capacity Factor vs. Size

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80

CapacityFactor(%)

Age (Years)

Capacity Factor vs. Age

Parameter Value Trend Observed

Average Capacity Factor 45.6% Lower capacity factors

Average size (MW) 191 MW Units under 200 MW in sizeAverage Age of Units 54 Yeas Older units being retired

% of units with No SO2 Control 84% Units with out SO2 controls

% of units with Planned SO2 Control 6% Units that did not have plans to install SO2controls

Announced Coal-Fired Retirements24.7 GW


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0

20

40

60

80

100

0 500 1000 1500

CapacityFactor(%)

Size (MW)

Capacity Factor vs. Size

Remaining Announced Retirements

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100

CapacityFactor(%)

Age (Years)

Capacity Factor vs. Age

Remaining Announced Retirements

Operating Coal-Fired FleetAnnounced Retirements & Remaining Units

Announced Retirements:24.7 GW

Remaining Plants: ~300 GW


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Other Generation Development Activity


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Proposed U.S. New CapacityCoal, Natural Gas, Wind, and Nuclear

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

ProposedNameplateCapacity(GW)

Coal NG Wind Nuclear

Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite 1/13/2012

Figure 12


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Status of Proposed New U.S. CapacityCoal, Natural Gas, Wind, and Nuclear

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

ProposedNameplateCapacity(GW)

Under Construction Near Construction Permitted Announced

Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite 1/13/2012

Figure 13


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Current Wind Capacity Additions by YearsFigure 14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Capacity(GW)

Announced

Permitted

Near Construction

Under Construction

Actual


Operational Dates

ProposedActual


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Current NGCC Capacity Additions by YearsFigure 15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Capacity(GW)

Announced

Permitted

Near Construction

Under Construction

Actual

ProposedActual

Operational Dates



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Current NG-GT Capacity Additions by YearsFigure 16

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Capacity(GW)

Announced

Permitted

Near Construction

Under Construction

Actual

ProposedActual

Operational Dates



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Current Nuclear Capacity Additions by YearsFigure 17

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Capacity(GW)

Announced

Permitted

Near Construction

Under Construction

Actual

ProposedActual

Watts Bar Unit 2Construction begun in the 1970s,suspended in 1988 at 80% complete,currently revived with completion

due 2012.

Operational Dates



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U.S. Coal-Fired Power Plant Summary Year 201112/13/2010 1/13/2012

Five new coal-plants totaling 2,343 MW were Commissionedin2011

Progressing/Commissionedprojects by January 2012 have had anet increase of 3 plants; a net change in capacity of 1,388 MW

(+10%) over Progressingprojects 1,599 MW of new capacity has been Announcedand

2,890 MW have been canceled

Of 2,890 MW canceled plants, 54% were Announcedphase and 46% wereProgressing

Compared to previous years, fewer projects are being Announcedto offset recent Commissioning

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