Nevada CD02 Special Election Survey Presentation

8/6/2019 Nevada CD02 Special Election Survey Presentation

1/27MagellanDataandMappingStrategies

NevadaCongressionalDistrictTwo

SpecialElectionSurvey

August15th 16th,2011

DavidFlaherty

CEO

1MagellanDataandMappingStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com|3038618585

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies are

pleased to present the results of a 656N

autodial survey of likely general election

voters in Nevadas second congressional

district. The interviewing was conductedAugust 15th August 16th, 2011. This survey has

a margin of error of +/ 3.82% at the 95

percent confidence interval.

MagellanDataandMappingStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com|3038618585 2



PollingRegions





VoterFrequency


HowlikelyareyoutovoteintheSeptember

specialelectionforCongress?

ExtremelyLikely VeryLikelySomewhatLikely

88%

7% 5%




MarshallImageRating


FavorableUnfavorable

NoOpinionNVR/HRD

33%

43%

16%

8%

NameID:92%

Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinion

ofKateMarshall?




TOTALMen

Women

33%

35% 31%

43% 45%42%

16% 13%19%

8% 7% 8%

Favorable

Unfavorable

NoOpinion

NVR/HRD


ofKateMarshall?(ByGender)


TOTAL 18-3435-44

45-5455-64

65+

33%

11% 24%37% 38%

34%

43%

62%47%

40% 38%43%

16%11% 21%

17%15% 17%

8%16% 8% 6% 9% 6%

Favorable

Unfavorable

NoOpinion

NVR/HRD


ofKateMarshall?(ByAge)




TOTALRepublican

DemocratIndependent

33%

9%

66%

23%

43%

65%

14%

46%

16%17% 13%

27%

8% 9% 7% 4%

Favorable

Unfavorable

NoOpinion

NVR/HRD


ofKateMarshall?(ByParty)


TOTALWashoe

Central WestRural

33% 36%

31%27%

43% 46%

50%

30%

16%15% 14%

22%

8% 3% 5%

21%Favorable

Unfavorable

NoOpinion

NVR/HRD


ofKateMarshall?(ByRegion)




Amodei ImageRating


FavorableUnfavorable

NoOpinionNVR/HRD

38%36%

19%

7%

NameID:93%


ofMarkAmodei?




TOTALMen

Women

38%40%

36%

36% 38%

35%

19% 16%22%

7% 6% 7%

Favorable

Unfavorable

NoOpinion

NVR/HRD


ofMarkAmodei?(ByGender)


TOTAL18-34

35-4445-54

55-6465+

38% 46% 43%36%

34% 38%

36% 20% 30%40%

40% 38%

19%

18%

23% 19%20% 17%

7%16%

4% 5%6% 7%

Favorable

Unfavorable

NoOpinion

NVR/HRD


ofMarkAmodei?(ByAge)




TOTALRepublican

DemocratIndependent

38%62%

11% 27%

36%

11%

69%36%

19% 20% 13%

33%

7% 7% 7% 4%

Favorable

Unfavorable

NoOpinion

NVR/HRD


ofMarkAmodei?(ByParty)



ofMarkAmodei?(ByRegion)


TOTALWashoe

Central WestRural

38% 39% 51%

22%

36% 42%32%

28%

19%17% 14%

28%

7% 2% 3%

22%Favorable

Unfavorable

NoOpinion

NVR/HRD



ObamaApprovalRating


Approve

Disapprove

NoOpinion

32%

63%

5%

DoyouapproveordisapproveofthejobBarack

ObamaisdoingasPresident?




TOTAL

Men

Women

32%32%

33%

63%64%

61%

5%4%

6%

Approve

Disapprove

NoOpinion


ObamaisdoingasPresident?(ByGender)


TOTAL18-34

35-4445-54

55-6465+

32%

27%

20% 3

0%

36%

3

6%

63% 7

3%

78%

65%

57%

58%

5%

2%

5%

7%

6%

Approve

Disapprove

NoOpinion


ObamaisdoingasPresident?(ByAge)




TOTALRepublican

Democrat

Independent

32%

6%

69%

24%

63%

91%

25

%

67%

5%3%

6%

9%

ApproveDisapproveNoOpinion


ObamaisdoingasPresident?(ByParty)


TOTAL

Washoe

Central WestRural

32%

36%

27% 31%

63%

60%

67%

63%

5%4%

6%6%

Approve

Disapprove

NoOpinion


ObamaisdoingasPresident?(ByRegion)




BallotTest


Amodei Marshall FasanoLehmann Undecided

48%

35%

4% 2% 11%

IftheelectionforCongresswasbeingheldtoday,forwhom

wouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereKateMarshall,Democrat,MarkAmodei,Republican,TimothyFasano,Independent

American,orHelmuth Lehmann,Independent?





Women

Men

Total

46%

51%

48%

33%

37%

35%

4%

4%

4%

2%

2%

2%

15%

6%

11%

Amodei Marshall Fasano

Lehmann Undecided


wouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereKateMarshall,Democrat,

MarkAmodei,Republican,TimothyFasano,Independent

American,orHelmuth Lehmann,Independent?(ByGender)


65+

5564

4554

3544

1834

Total

47%40%

49%

59%

62%

48%

36%

41%

32%

26%

31%

35%

5%

3%

7%

5%

4%

1%

3%2%

2%

11%

13%

10%

10%

7%

11%


Lehmann Undecided



American,orHelmuth Lehmann,Independent?(ByAge)




Independent

Democrat

Republican

Total

39%

13%

78%

48%

33%

73%

5%

35%

9%

4%

3%

4%

5%

1%

2%

2%

14%

9%

12%

11%


Lehmann Undecided


wouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereKateMarshall,Democrat,

MarkAmodei,Republican,TimothyFasano,Independent

American,orHelmuth Lehmann,Independent?(ByParty)




American,orHelmuth Lehmann,Independent?(ByRegion)

Rural

CentralWest

Washoe

Total

42%

54%

47%

48%

34%

29%

38%

35%

5%

3%

5%

4%

1%

2%

2%

2%

18%

12%

8%

11%


Lehmann Undecided



Marshall~AmodeiBallotTest



51%

36%13%

Amodei Marshall Undecided


wouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereKateMarshall,

Democrat,orMarkAmodei,Republican?




TOTALMen Women

38% 40%

37%

13% 13%13%

30% 32%29%

6% 6%5%

13% 9%16%

Definitely Amodei ProbablyAmodei

DefinitelyMarshall ProbablyMarshall

Undecided

51%

36%13%

Amodei MarshallUndecided



Democrat,orMarkAmodei,Republican?(ByGender)


TOTAL18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

38% 47% 49%39%

31% 39%

13%

18% 15%

17%

13%9%

30%19% 22%

30%

36% 31%

6% 8% 4% 3%7% 6%

13% 8% 10% 11% 13% 15%



Undecided



Democrat,orMarkAmodei,Republican?(ByAge)

51%

36%13%





TOTAL

RepublicanDemocratIndependent

38%

65%

10%25%

13%

18%

4%

20%

30%

5%

67%20%

6% 1%9%

12%

13% 11% 10%

23%



Undecided



Democrat,orMarkAmodei,Republican?(ByParty)

51%

36%13%



TOTALWashoe

CentralWest

Rural

38% 41%43%

29%

13% 11% 12%

19%

30% 34%24%

30%

6%5%

8%3%

13% 9%13%

19%



Undecided



Democrat,orMarkAmodei,Republican?(ByRegion)

51%

36%13%




FiscalIdeology


ConservativeModerate

LiberalNoOpinion

55%

32%

11%2%

Generallyspeaking,doyouconsideryourselftobe

conservative,moderateorliberalonfiscalissues,suchastaxesandgovernmentspending?



20/27MagellanDataandMappingStrategies 2

TOTAL

Men

Women

55%

61%

50%

32%

28%

36%

11% 10%11%

2%1%

3%

ConservativeModerateLiberalNoOpinion



conservative,moderateorliberalonfiscalissues,such

astaxesandgovernmentspending?(ByGender)

TOTAL18-34

35-4445-54

55-6465+

55%

66%

57%

57%

51%

53%

32%

23%

41%

27% 3

4%

33%

11%

11%

2%

12%

15%

10%

2%

4%

4%




conservative,moderateorliberalonfiscalissues,suchastaxesandgovernmentspending?(ByAge)



TOTAL

Republican

Democrat

Independent

55%

80%

21%

58%

32%

16

%

53%

31%

1

1%

2% 2

4%

7%

2

%

2%2%

4%




conservative,moderateorliberalonfiscalissues,such

astaxesandgovernmentspending?(ByParty)

TOTAL

Washoe

Central WestRural

55%

52% 6

3%

53%

32%

34%

30%

31%

11%

13%

5%

12%

2%

1%

2%

4%

Conservative

Moderate

Liberal

NoOpinion



conservative,moderateorliberalonfiscalissues,suchastaxesandgovernmentspending?(ByRegion)



SocialIdeology


ConservativeModerate

LiberalNoOpinion

43%

32%

22%

3%


conservative,moderateorliberalonsocialissues,suchassamesexmarriageandabortion?




TOTAL

Men

Women

43%

44%

41%

32%

34%

30%

22%

19%

26%

3%3%

3%

Conservative

Moderate

Liberal

NoOpinion



conservative,moderateorliberalonsocialissues,such

assamesexmarriageandabortion?(ByGender)

TOTAL18-34

35-4445-54

55-6465+

43%

55%

45%

38%

40%

44%

32%

22%

35%

35%

37%

27%

22%

2

3%

18% 24

%

22%

24%3

%

2%

3%

1%

5%

Conservative

Moderate

Liberal

NoOpinion



conservative,moderateorliberalonsocialissues,suchassamesexmarriageandabortion?(ByAge)



TOTAL

Republican

Democrat

Independent

43%

65%

16%

37%3

2%

28%

34% 4

1%

22%

5%

46%

19%

3%

2%4%

3%

Conservative

Moderate

Liberal

NoOpinion



conservative,moderateorliberalonsocialissues,such

assamesexmarriageandabortion?(ByParty)

TOTAL

Washoe

Central WestRural

43%

37% 4

9%

48%

32%

34%

34%

26%2

2%

2

7%

16%

19%

3%2%

1%7%

Conservative

Moderate

Liberal

NoOpinion



conservative,moderateorliberalonsocialissues,suchassamesexmarriageandabortion?(ByRegion)



SurveyDemographics


GenderDemographics

Female

52%

Male

48%




18343544

45545564

65+

8% 12%

20%

26%

34%

AgeGroupDemographics


Republican

Democrat

Independent

48%

38%

14%

Party

Demographics



27/27

White Hispanic/LatinoBlack/African

American Other

86%

6% 5%3%

RaceDemographics


WashoeCentralWest

Rural

52%

25%23%

Region

Demographics


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Nevada CD02 Special Election Survey Presentation

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