Nevada State Climate Office - Doug Bolye, Nevada State Climatologist, University of Nevada, Reno

Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle

Nevada State Climate Office

Douglas P. Boyle

[email protected] of Geography University of Nevada, Reno


2015 WY Precipitation


Precipitation % of Normal

Eastern Nevada

Northern Great Basin

Lower Humboldt

Southern Nevada

Walker

Carson

Owyhee River SnakeRiver

Clover Valley

Upper Humboldt

Truckee

Lake Tahoe

51

78

69

68

83

48

48

83

52

77

53

Water Year (Oct 1)to Date PrecipitationBasin-wide Percent of 1981-2010 Average

unavailable *

<50%

50 - 69%

70 - 89%

90 - 109%

110 - 129%

130 - 149%

>= 150%

Prepared by:USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center Portland, Oregonhttp://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov

Provisional data subject to revision

Nevada/California SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal

0 75 15037.5

Miles

* Data unavailable at time of posting

or measurement is not representative

at this time of year

The water year to date precipitation percent of normal represents the accumulated precipitation found at selected SNOTEL sites in or near the basin compared to the average value for those sites on this day. Data based on the first reading of the day (typically 00:00).

Apr 16, 2015


SWE % of Normal

Eastern Nevada

Northern Great Basin

Lower Humboldt

Southern Nevada

Walker

Carson

Owyhee River SnakeRiver

Clover Valley

Upper Humboldt

Truckee

Lake Tahoe

16

27

266

1

17

24

37

15

58

0

Current Snow Water EquivalentBasin-wide Percent of 1981-2010 Median

unavailable *

<50%

50 - 69%

70 - 89%

90 - 109%

110 - 129%

130 - 149%

>= 150%

Prepared by:USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center Portland, Oregonhttp://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov

Provisional data subject to revision

Nevada/California SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) % of Normal

0 70 14035

Miles

* Data unavailable at time of posting

or measurement is not representative

at this time of year

The current snow water equivalent percent of normal represents the snow water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in or near the basin compared to the average value for those sites on this day. Data based on the first reading of the day (typically 00:00).

Apr 16, 2015


2015 WY Temperature


2014 Warm Temperatures








Reservoir Status


NRCS Volumetric Forecasts


U.S. Drought Monitor


U.S.D.M – Policy Impacts20 1 5 S e c r e ta r i a l D r o u g h t D e s ig n a t io n s - A l l D r o u g h t

Alaska 1:58,102,399

Hawaii 1:19,740,053

S e c r e ta r ia l D r o u g h t D e s ig n a t io n s fo r 20 1 5 Disaster Incidents as of April 15, 2015

State Boundary

County Boundary

Tribal Lands

USDA Farm Service Agency Primary Counties: 302

Production, Emergencies and Compliance Division Washington, D.C. Contiguous Counties: 150

1:23,520,203 Puerto R ico 1:5,592,808 April 15, 2015

Accuracy of Drought Monitor is important!


Assessing Drought Status

Questions from public about the DM

• Why is ____ D4?

• Why isn’t ____ D4?

• What does D4 mean?

• Is the drought over?

• How much precipitation do we need to end the drought?

• When will that happen?

• Is the drought due to global warming?

• Are we in the beginning (or middle) of a “mega-drought?

CA-NV DM & Water Conditions Discussion• Discuss latest local water conditions, impacts, actions, and the DM• Provide a coordinated response to DM authors and others• Single most valuable resource for NSCO.


Death Valley


Recommendations to DM Authors

Move to D4 Move to D3 Move to D1

“As of the end of December, Denio was above 150% of normal precipitation while eastward at McDermitt it was closer to 50%”We need help!


Availability of InformationLarge number of weather & climate products available


L.T. Drought Indicator Blend


S.T. Drought Indicator Blend


Availability of Information


Availability of Information


Availability of Analysis Tools


Availability of ObservationsHow accurate are these products and tools?

The topography, geology, and weather patterns in the West require a large number of real climate observations to characterize the spatial and temporal variability.

We have the least number of climate observations in these areas.

Desperately need more real observations of climate variables to understand and assess uncertainty and product limitations.

We need your help!


3-month Temperature Forecast


3-month Precipitation Forecast


Seasonal Drought Outlook

http://go.usa.gov/hHTe

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Author: Rich TinkerNOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center

Drought Tendency During the Valid PeriodValid for April 16 - July 31, 2015

Released April 16, 2015

Depicts large-scale trends basedon subjectively derived probabilities

guided by short- and long-range

statistical and dynamical forecasts. Use caution for applications that

can be affected by short lived events."Ongoing" drought areas are

based on the U.S. Drought Monitorareas (intensities of D1 to D4).

NOTE: The tan areas imply at leasta 1-category improvement in the

Drought Monitor intensity levels by the end of the period, although

drought will remain. The green

areas imply drought removal by the end of the period (D0 or none).

Drought persists/intensifies

Drought remains but improves

Drought removal likely

Drought development likely

Date post:	17-Jul-2015
Category:	Science
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Nevada State Climate Office - Doug Bolye, Nevada State Climatologist, University of Nevada, Reno

Science