New Business Models (Gas Pricing & Financing) in the New Era of Gas Presented at The 7 th International Indonesia Gas Conference and Exhibition 1 Conference and Exhibition Presented by Dr. Fereidun Fesharaki Chairman, FGE January 27, 2015 This presentation material contains confidential and privileged information. The dissemination, distribution, or copying by any means whatsoever without FGE’s prior written consent is strictly prohibited.
Transcript
New Business Models (Gas Pricing &
Financing) in the New Era of GasPresented at
The 7th International Indonesia Gas
Conference and Exhibition
1
The 7 International Indonesia Gas
Conference and Exhibition Presented by
Dr. Fereidun Fesharaki
Chairman, FGE
January 27, 2015
This presentation material contains confidential and privileged information.
The dissemination, distribution, or copying by any means whatsoever without FGE’s prior written consent is strictly prohibited.
Who is FGE?� For over 30 years, FGE has delivered strategic advice on the oil and gas markets to clients around the
world. The company was the first consulting firm to specialize in the downstream oil and gas markets with
a focus on the East of Suez region.
� Over the past decades, FGE has provided studies and advisory services to national governments, national
oil and gas companies, major oil and gas companies, independent oil and gas companies, financial
institutions, international and intergovernmental organizations, utilities, consultancies, and engineering
design firms.
� FGE’s global presence enables us to service clients around the world.
Over 270 Clients Around the Globe
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Please visit our website,
www. FGEnergy.com for more information.
Beijing
SingaporeHonolulu
Dubai
London
Main Offices
Rep/Branch Offices
Global/Asian Headquarters
TokyoCalifornia
Melbourne
Mumbai
� Need for consistent integrated oil and gas policy in the era of volatile oil
prices.
� Since many new gas projects are high cost offshore gas, huge challenges
are faced by the industry to proceed forward. Incentives need to be
provided.
� Imported LNG is inevitable. Pricing of LNG imports will be much lower
New Paradigm for Indonesia
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than expected in the past. A consistent relationship between domestic
and international prices needs to be established.
� Project financing will become more challenging in the era of lower oil
prices. There is a role for the State in facilitating and incentivizing
innovative project financing.
� There is a need to develop institutions along with policies to ensure
proper implementation, free of political wrangling.
�OPEC size addition to oil production New
� Largest producer of condensates in the world (now) New
�Amongst top 3 LNG exporters in the world (by 2020/22) New
�Top LPG exporter in the world (by 2015/16) New
The US as an Energy Superpower
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Top LPG exporter in the world (by 2015/16) New
� Largest exporter of refined products in the world (now) New
�Emerging major petrochemical exporter (by 2020) New
�Emerging ethane exporter New
�Major coal exporter
$70
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US$/bbl Brent (2005-2020)
Long-Term Oil Price: Finding A New Balance
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$-
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52005–2014: actual, forecast in $2014 thereafter
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US$/bbl Brent (Jan 2014-Dec 2015)
Massive Supplies Planned Post-2017…
…But Buyers Need to Commit!
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mm
t
World Liquefaction Capacity and LNG Demand
Speculative
Planned
Under Construction
In Operation
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0
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t
World LNG Demand
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Likely East Africa Exports to Asia*
Likely Canada Exports to Asia
Likely US Exports to Asia
Likely East of Suez Supply Capacity
Targeting Asia Pacific
Asia+ME Demand
2014: Supply required
from West of Suez
East of Suez LNG Market Pressure PointsEast of Suez Liquefaction Supply and LNG Demand
