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New challenges for Social statistics, Eurostat Luxemburg, 23 September 2008
New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania
NEW APPROACH TO MIGRATION STATISTICSIN LITHUANIA
DALIA AMBROZAITIENĖ
STATISTICS LITHUANIA
New challenges for Social statistics, Eurostat Luxemburg, 23 September 2008
New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania
OVERVIEW
MIGRATION STATISTICS IN LITHUANIA
MEASURING UNDECLARED MIGRATION
RETURN MIGRATION SURVEY
STATISTICS ON REMITTANCES
FUTURE WORK
New challenges for Social statistics, Eurostat Luxemburg, 23 September 2008
New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania
CHALLANGES FOR STATISTICS LITHUANIA
Persons leaving the country difficult to count due to their absence, significant share of emigrants do not declare emigration (free movement of persons within the enlarged EU, mobility of population, abolition of border control in the Shengen area)
Problems of statistical observation of outflows; undeclared status of movements, short–term migrant became emigrant (change of place of the residence for more then 12 months)
Combination of administrative data sources does not ensure sufficient quality of emigration statistics
New challenges for Social statistics, Eurostat Luxemburg, 23 September 2008
New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATIVE DATA
HOUSEHOLDSSURVEYS
POPULATION REGISTER DATABASE
UNDECLARED
EMIGRATION
SURVEY
STATE SOCIAL INSURANCE DATABASE
DECLARED MIGRATION FLOWS UNDECLARED MIGRATION FLOWS
EVALUATION OF TOTAL MIGRATION FLOWS
UNDECLARED
IMMIGRATION
SURVEY
New challenges for Social statistics, Eurostat Luxemburg, 23 September 2008
New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania
NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN MIGRATION STATISTICS
UNDECLARED EMIGRATION SURVEY
UNDECLARED EMIGRANT
IS A PERSON WHO HAS NOT DECLARED HIS/HER DEPARTURE FROM THE COUNTRY AND HIS/HER USUAL PLACE OF
RESIDENCE IS IN AN OTHER COUNTRY OR S/HE IS INTENDING TO STAY IN ANOTHER COUNTRY FOR A
PERIOD 12 MONTHS OR LONGER
New challenges for Social statistics, Eurostat Luxemburg, 23 September 2008
New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania
UNDECLARED EMIGRATION SURVEY
Data on emigrants who not declared their departure are in population register database with any changes
Auxiliary information
(population number by municipality, breakdown of population by sex, age group and urban/rural area)
USUAL RESIDENTS OF LITHUANIA =
EMPLOYED POPULATION +
UNEMPLOYED POPULATION +
INACTIVE POPULATION +
EMIGRANTS WHO HAVE NO DECLARED THEIR DEPARTURE
New challenges for Social statistics, Eurostat Luxemburg, 23 September 2008
New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania
UNDECLARED EMIGRATION SURVEY
Annual household survey, I quarter (2006, 2007, 2008)
Framework - LFS by supplementing module on undeclared migration
One-stage simple random size, sampling frame – Population register
New challenges for Social statistics, Eurostat Luxemburg, 23 September 2008
New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania
UNDERCLARED EMIGRATION SURVEY
QUESTIONNAIRE
Questions about PERSON WHO EMIGRATED
New country of residence;
How many years /months ago s/he left Lithuania
MAIN DEMOGRAPHICS AND SOCIO-ECONOMICCHARACTERISTICS
Age, sex
Educational attainment
Occupation before leaving
Current status (worker, student, other)
REASON FOR EMIGRATION
FAMILY - whether all family left, where and with whom are children, who (relatives, grandparents, etc.) take care about children if both parents emigrated
New challenges for Social statistics, Eurostat Luxemburg, 23 September 2008
New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania
UNDECLARED EMIGRATION SURVEY
Data obtained compared (at personal level,
according to confidentiality rules) with databases of Population Register and the State Social Insurance Fund Board
Accuracy: coefficient of variation for the number of emigrants who had not declared their departure ranged about 15 percent
New challenges for Social statistics, Eurostat Luxemburg, 23 September 2008
New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania
UNDECLARED MIGRATION SURVEY
RESULTS – FOR EVALUATION
OF UNDECLARED AND TOTAL EMIGRATION FLOWS
EACH SECOND –THIRD EMIGRANT DECLARES HIS/HER DEPARTURE
FROM LITHUANIA
New challenges for Social statistics, Eurostat Luxemburg, 23 September 2008
New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania
EMIGRATION FLOWS FROM LITHUANIA 2001–2007, thousand
Evaluation based on the Undeclared emigration survey and the data of declaration of place of residence.
7,3 7,111,0
15,2 15,6 12,6 13,8
15,87,4
11,7
17,3
32,5
15,2 12,7
0
10
20
30
40
50
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Persons , who declare their departure Persons , who not declare their departure
23,1
14,5
22,7
48,1
27,8 32,5
26,5
New challenges for Social statistics, Eurostat Luxemburg, 23 September 2008
New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania
IMMIGRATION SURVEY 2008
Focusing on assessment of undeclared return migration
To estimate number and main characteristics on return migrants
Reasons for return to Lithuania
Module in LFS
Field work -2008, final results -2009
Pilot results- II q 2008, coefficient of variation ranged about 17 percent
New challenges for Social statistics, Eurostat Luxemburg, 23 September 2008
New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania
STATISTICS ON REMITTANCES
Bank of Lithuania starts publishing remittances of private individuals (migrants)
Collaboration between the National bank and Statistics Lithuania
Balance of payments and Household survey (ICT)
The cash received from the family members residing abroad or cash remittances to those living in foreign countries or residing there on the temporary basis
COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES AND WORKERS REMITTANCES, TRANFERED – 3,6 million LTL (3.7 percent, compared with GDP)
New challenges for Social statistics, Eurostat Luxemburg, 23 September 2008
New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania
CHALLENGES FOR STATISTICS LITHUANIA
Great need to develop specific studies
HOW TO INTEGRATE statistical estimates of undeclared international migration to migration and demographic statistics
Estimated figure is used ADITIONALLY
to register-based migration statistics
New challenges for Social statistics, Eurostat Luxemburg, 23 September 2008
New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania
FUTURE WORK
Find the best solution aimed at further development of migration and demographic statistics
Collaboration with scientific community, international experts, Eurostat and NSI’s on methodological issues
Full implementation of European Regulation on Community migration statistics
Exchange of data on migrants between EU member states
Population Census 2011