30 March 2011 1 New Frontiers in Science Diplomacy Peter Williams What is ‘Science Diplomacy’? “Many of the challenges we face today are international and –whether it’s tackling climate change or fighting disease – these global problems require global solutions……That is why it is important we create a new role for science in international policy making & diplomacy….. to place science at the heart of the progressive international agenda” Rt.Hon Gordon Brown MP
Transcript
30 March 2011
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New Frontiers in Science Diplomacy
Peter Williams
What is ‘Science Diplomacy’?“Many of the challenges we face today are international and –whether it’s tackling climate change or fighting disease – these global problems require global solutions……That is why it is important we create a new role for science in international policy making & diplomacy….. to place science at the heart of the progressive international agenda”
Rt.Hon Gordon Brown MP
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Echoed by President Barak Obama
Address to the US National Academy of Sciences, 2009
“At such a difficult moment, there are those who say we cannot afford to invest in science, that support for research is somehow a luxury at moments defined by necessities. I fundamentally disagree. Science is more essential for our prosperity, our security, our health, our environment, and our quality of health than it has ever been before.”
“At such a difficult moment…..”
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So where dowe start?
The conclusionsfrom the 2009meeting
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With science at all levels…….
Though there are issues : is this science diplomacy??
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What about the ‘Grand Challenges’ of Food and Climate Change…..?
Population growth and food
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Population growth and food
‘Reaping the Benefits’, Royal Society 2009
Food : the £2 billion ‘grand challenge’
Professor Sir David Baulcombe FRS, who chaired the
Royal Society's study, said: "We need to take action
now to stave off food shortages. If we wait even five
to ten years, it may be too late. Biological science has
progressed in leaps and bounds in the last decade and
UK scientists have been at the head of the pack when
it comes to topics related to food crops. In the UK we
have the potential to come up with viable scientific
solutions for feeding a growing population and we
have a responsibility to realise this potential. There's a
very clear need for policy action and publicly-funded
science to make sure this happens."
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Climate change - signs for all to see
Wilkins ice-shelf
Antarctica
Grey Glacier,
Patagonia – 2.2km
in 20 years
But is it ‘anthropogenic’, or the result of a natural cycle…………. what do we ‘know we know’?
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‘Vostok’ Ice Core data, Antarctica
Milankovitch Cyclicity – explains long term fluctucations
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But have we departed from this cyclicity?
Glacial decline……yes, they are melting in some areas, but how fast and why?
Source: NOAA
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Sea level rise…..yes, it is rising!
Global temperature…….yes, it is rising, butrecent trends are relatively flat……
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Solar activity – little or no short-term correlation
“Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any
other part of the world and, if the present rate continues,
the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and
perhaps sooner is very high if……..” IPCC AR4, 2007.
However climate science has become controversial
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“We are writing to request
that the InterAcademy Council
(IAC) conduct a thorough,
independent review of the
processes and procedures
followed by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
in preparing its Assessment
Reports”
Letters from UN Secretary General and IPCC Chair to
Dr. R.K.Dijkgraaf and Dr. Lu Yongxiang, IAC Co-Chairs
The Commission from the UN & IPCC
Climate Change Assessments:
Review of the Processes and
Procedures of the IPCC
by the InterAcademy Council
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The IPCC Review Process: AR4 & the Himalayan Glaciers
“Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any
other part of the world and, if the present rate continues,
the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and
perhaps sooner is very high if……..”
The IAC Committee examined the draft text and relevant
reviewer comments and concluded that IPCC’s report
review process failed in two ways:
- Authors failed carefully to consider the full range of
thoughtful review comments
- Review editors then failed to ensure that reviewer
comments were adequately addressed
But the IAC Committee recognized that errors were few in
AR4 and that in all ca. 90,000 review comments were
received at various stages of the assessment
Himalayan Glaciers
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30 August report released at UN
The problems are immense…….but the opportunities are also vast…..
Again, questions remain:
• How firm is the international scientific consensus on the threat of climate change?
• What is the extent of public consensus?
• What investment might be necessary to mitigate these effects?
• What might be the benefits in the creation of new industries?
• Do the benefits outweigh costs in a pure economic sense?
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Climate change – issues
Global carbon contributions (Source: IPCC AR4)
“Over one third of the world’s liquid
Fuels are produced in the Middle
East and North Africa”
“Japan is the world’s third
Largest producer of nuclear power”
US Energy Information Administration
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Libya
Fukushima, Japan
Life after Fukushima: where next for nuclear energy?
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New, safer technologies…..
But will the public accept them?
…… or clean up the old ones?
But what are the problems and why do we just talk about CCS?
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What abouta focus onsustainablefuels?
Though there are no easy answers…..
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and there are consequences………
But what really are the capital costs & operational efficiencies?
……renewables, perhaps?
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…….or harnessing wave power?
…..or harness the ultimate source of allour energy supplies: Solar Power?
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Energy is far from the only problem….
Drive…..or fly…..or neither? IPCC data
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Our love affair with the automobile…..
Electric vehicles….always the car of tomorrow
Because the batteries are always the technology of tomorrow…….. WHY???
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Until 2010…….. maybe….
Cities of the future……
‘Masdar’, Abu Dhabi
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With ‘Low carbon’ design playing a key role………
A Centre for
Carbon Measurement
Can we even measure success……?
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…… and following Stern, will the inevitable short term costs of mitigation be greater than the long term economic benefits?
……or alternatively, could we in effect create the new industries of the future as a result of mitigation efforts, solving at the same time questions of energy security and environment?
So how does humanity face up to these problems?
International Science Diplomacy: “a problem shared is a problem halved”
• Science diplomacy knows no national boundaries – it is about teamwork and cooperation
• It is via the promotion of mutual understanding through the global ‘language’ of science
• It seeks to provide solutions to the conflicting priorities of climate change, food supply, energy security and the environment
And it seeks to provide these solutions alongside the search for continuing global economic
growth: is this still a tenable goal?
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Some thoughts on the future……
The enhancement of mutual understanding
To tackle global complexity of networks….
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Though there are questions of international mobility in science……
✔
UKBA quotas for science ??
…….and new challenges: People & the Planet, new Royal Society study
An international advisory panel drawn from the UK, Brazil, China, USA, Ethiopia,
Australia and the Union for African Population Studies, chaired by Sir John Sulston
