New gTLD Statistics & Business Implications
CHRISTA TAYLOR BERRY COBB
Historical Significance of the Journal Entry
Overview What We Learned From 2014 • 2014 Legacy & New gTLD statistics • Most Successful gTLDs New gTLD Tiers • Volumes & Values new gTLDs can expect • Correlation between Prices, Volumes, etc. • Impact on registry financials • Business models considerations – additional value adds/value proposition over registrations New gTLD Projections for 2015/2016 • Forecasts & Predictions New gTLD ‘Drafting’ Plan • Impact on the industry • Tier 3 & Tier 4 Today / Tomorrow
What We Learned In 2014
2014 - Legacy gTLD Stats .com Group 1 Group 2 Group 3
Jan - 111,843,404 Dec - 115,312,494
+3.1%
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
1/1/
2014
1/26
/201
42/
20/2
014
3/17
/201
44/
11/2
014
5/6/
2014
5/31
/201
46/
25/2
014
7/20
/201
48/
14/2
014
9/8/
2014
10/3
/201
410
/28/
2014
11/2
2/20
1412
/17/
2014
biz info mobi net org
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
1/1/
2014
1/24
/201
42/
16/2
014
3/11
/201
44/
3/20
144/
26/2
014
5/19
/201
46/
11/2
014
7/4/
2014
7/27
/201
48/
19/2
014
9/11
/201
410
/4/2
014
10/2
7/20
1411
/19/
2014
12/1
2/20
14
asia name pro tel xxx
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
1/1/
2014
1/24
/201
42/
16/2
014
3/11
/201
44/
3/20
144/
26/2
014
5/19
/201
46/
11/2
014
7/4/
2014
7/27
/201
48/
19/2
014
9/11
/201
410
/4/2
014
10/2
7/20
1411
/19/
2014
12/1
2/20
14
aero coop jobs
museum name post
pro travel
2014 - New gTLD Stats
46 - Brand 40 - Generic 06 - Geo
No 2014 GA Launch Data:
4
30
39
50
41
37
56
37
28 26
44
21
14 14
7
1
7
26 29
35
26
31 31 31
40
19 17 18
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2013 2014
Sum of Delegation Sum of GA Sum of Registrations
2014 gTLD Program in Review Application View
544
61 16 75
278
1
346
2 6 16
19
39
5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Applied Criteria Fail Delegated Not Approved Will NotProceed
Withdrawn
Brand Generic Geographic
Unique String View
*Applied = yet to be settled **471 Delegated as 4 Jan per ICANN ***162 applications in contention
*87 unique strings in Contention (includes .corp, .home, .mail)
549
61 18 84
460
1
346
2 45
298
19
39
1 1
6
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Applied Criteria Fail Delegated Not Approved Will NotProceed
Withdrawn
Brand Generic Geographic
Most successful New gTLDs
•Too early to tell •We’re not picking favorites •Execution is key
• Quantity of Registrations
• Total Revenue / Profit
• Use
• Alexa Ranking
• SEO results
• Renewal Rates
Primary Criteria:
New gTLD Tiers
The Caveats • .XYZ, .BERLIN, .OVH have free registrations • ‘Free’ registrations can be a viable business plan but as we have no viable, reliable renewal statistics
they have been excluded from any calculations • Expectation that renewal rates from free registrations will vary be from regular paid registrations • Many registries have registered their own names thereby inflating the number of true, arms-length
third-party registrations • Legitimate reasons for registries to do this include increasing the ability for potential registrants to find
and purchase premium names • TLDs that have recently launched have been excluded to eliminate the landrush upswing
gTLD Results based on Tiers • The 80/20 rule doesn’t quite apply. • As there are significant insight to be gained by
looking at the new gTLDs in four tiers. • 2014 ended with 472 delegated new gTLDs • TLDs in General Availability at the end of December
is 271 with an average registration volume of 9,414 • Average daily registration volume of 45
33% 34% 35% 36% 37%
Revenues
Volume
80/20 Rule
TLDs by Volume
Average/Median Volume 2014 by Quartile: 1: 29.2k / 18.3k
2: 6.8k / 6.7k 3: 3k / 3k
4: 1.2k / $1.2k
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
club
guru link
xn--5
5qx5
dco
mpa
nyxn
--io0
a7i
web
site
baye
rndi
rect
ory
sexy
galle
ryla
ndsy
stem
sed
ucat
ion
paris
esta
tevo
ting
med
iaw
ien
xn--8
0adx
hks
wik
ici
tyla
wye
rru
hrbu
zzka
ufen
imm
obili
en gift
cool
bout
ique
pink
inst
itute
atto
rney
care
com
mun
ityre
pair
cam
era
tool
spl
umbi
ngca
mp
colo
gne
foun
datio
npi
ctur
esw
atch
diam
onds
nago
yaco
des
build ca
bcl
inic
futb
ol ink
moe ba
rgr
atis
part
ners
prod
uctio
nsxn
--80a
sehd
bvi
sion
datin
gco
ndos
cate
ring
supp
lym
arke
ttie
nda
finan
ce fish
xn--n
gbc5
azd
brus
sels
insu
re soy
finan
cial fail
gal
guita
rsfu
rnitu
relu
xury
asso
ciat
esm
ortg
age
dem
ocra
tco
okin
gde
ntist
fishi
ng
Average Daily Volume
TLDs in Terms of Revenues
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
xn--s
es55
4gxn
--55q
x5d
nyc
xn--f
iq22
8c5h
scl
ubto
day
vega
slin
kte
chno
logy
dire
ctor
yac
adem
yse
xyru
hrbu
zzph
oto
care
ers
galle
ryin
tern
atio
nal
mar
ketin
gho
ldin
gsed
ucat
ion
holid
ayco
nsul
ting
audi
obu
ildki
wi
chur
chim
mob
ilien
vent
ures
diam
onds
bout
ique
bike
shoe
spl
umbi
ngre
isedi
gita
lun
ofa
rmxn
--80a
sehd
beq
uipm
ent
limo
capi
tal
tool
sta
xca
mp
loan
sso
lar
soci
alpr
ess
finan
cew
atch
fitne
ssva
catio
nsbe
stdi
scou
ntfli
ghts
insu
re wtf
finan
cial
villa
ssu
rger
ypr
oduc
tions
pink
viaj
esxn
--80a
swg
danc
eje
tzt
bid
xn--q
9jyb
4cgr
atis
plac
eve
tm
oda
mor
tgag
ena
goya
indu
strie
sex
pose
dre
stde
ntist
guita
rsas
soci
ates
vodk
afis
hing
engi
neer
grip
eju
egos
Average Revenue per Day
Average/Median by Quartile: 1: $325.7 / $166.6
2: $80.4 / $75.4 3: $41.9 / $42.1 4: $16.6 / $18.5
Correlation between Price & Volume? TLD Price Volume Revenues @60% Daily Revenue rich $ 1,899.00 56 $ 63,806 $ 245 xn--3bst00m $ 789.00 133 $ 62,962 $ 2,518 xn--czru2d $ 325.00 7,442 $ 1,451,190 $ 7,220 luxury $ 279.99 1,277 $ 214,528 $ 822 versicherung $ 199.99 2,213 $ 265,547 $ 2,414 hiv $ 179.99 314 $ 33,910 $ 271 reise $ 99.99 1,236 $ 74,153 $ 511 creditcard $ 99.99 540 $ 32,397 $ 266 eus $ 99.00 2,541 $ 150,935 $ 4,312 gal $ 99.00 1,521 $ 90,347 $ 2,581 career $ 92.99 1,101 $ 61,429 $ 480 best $ 76.10 1,027 $ 46,893 $ 213 ceo $ 74.00 1,851 $ 82,184 $ 287 investments $ 69.99 1,666 $ 69,962 $ 514 loans $ 69.99 1,322 $ 55,516 $ 514
There is a weak negative relationship
-0.23
Pricing To date, the new gTLDs with the highest volumes and values have not improvised by being cheaper.
Quartiles Retail Price Median Price 1 $ 35.18 $ 19.99 2 $ 39.81 $ 19.99 3 $ 29.58 $ 19.99 4 $ 18.53 $ 19.99
Financial Implications: Tier 1 Today
$608 $1,533
$2,785
$4,043 $5,113
$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Thou
sand
s
Tier 1: Today
Cumulative Revenues Cumulative Net Income Yearly Revenues Fixed cost Gross Margin
Volume: 43,235 Registry Price of: $21 Expenses of: $300,000 at a 60% renewal rate
Financial Implications: Tier 2 Today
$(77) $(58) $59 $178 $240
$(500)
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Thou
sand
s
Tier 2: Today
Cumulative Revenues Cumulative Net Income Yearly Revenues Fixed cost Gross Margin
Volume: 11,518 Registry Price of: $24 Expenses of: $350,000 at a 60% renewal rate
New gTLD Projections for 2015/2016
2015 Registration Forecast - Simple
Based on 2014 Results
183402 399864
628950 868238
1354246 1763847
2116426 2450685
3028855 3343774
3656143
182175 216462 229086 239288
486008
409601
352579 334259
578170
314919 312369
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
Total Reg Total per Month Linear (Total Reg)
2015 Registration Forecast - Advanced
y = 16310x - 7E+08
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr-
14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-
15
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct
-15
Nov
-15
Dec-
15
Based on 2014 Results
Other Predictions
2015 • Expectation: Registries will advertise in mass once all portfolios
have launched their gTLDs • Renewal rates (optimistic vs realistic) • Pricing (up or down) • gTLDs will start to swap hands • Industry Related Stocks (up or down)
2016 • brands will start to promote the use of their gTLDs - the critical
path - when brands start to use their TLDs in advertising is when the common registrant will start to catch on.
• No new round of gTLDs
New gTLD ‘Drafting’ Plan
Financial Implications • Tier 3 and Tier 4 TLDs need to focus efforts on grass roots marketing efforts to increase registrations
with minimal expense while waiting for the grass to catch fire
• Once large brands and portfolio companies marketing begins to take hold, it will be important to draft on these large campaigns that drive registrations
• Reducing prices does not result in an increase in registrations as show earlier
Financial Implications: Tier 3 Today
$(131) $(220) $(265) $(311) $(381)
$(600)
$(400)
$(200)
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Thou
sand
s
Tier 3: Today
Cumulative Revenues Cumulative Net Income Yearly Revenues Fixed cost Gross Margin
Volume: 6,795 Registry Price of: $17.75 Expenses of: $250,000 at a 60% renewal rate
Financial Implications: Tier 3 Tomorrow
$(64) $(81) $(49) $(15) $(10)
$(200)
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Thou
sand
s Tier 3: Tomorrow
Cumulative Revenues Cumulative Net Income Yearly Revenues Fixed cost Gross Margin
To Breakeven, volume: 8,803 Registry Price of: $21.09 Expenses of: $200,000 at a 60% renewal rate
Financial Implications: Tier 4 Today
$(112) $(210) $(294)
$(378) $(470)
$(600)
$(500)
$(400)
$(300)
$(200)
$(100)
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Thou
sand
s
Tier 4: Today
Cumulative Revenues Cumulative Net Income Yearly Revenues Fixed cost Gross Margin
Volume: 3,524 Registry Price of: $18.53 Expenses of: $150,000 at a 60% renewal rate
Financial Implications: Tier 4 Tomorrow
$(49) $(63) $(40) $(17) $(14)
$(200)
$(100)
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Thou
sand
s
Tier 4: Tomorrow
Cumulative Revenues Cumulative Net Income Yearly Revenues Fixed cost Gross Margin
To Breakeven, volume: 17,795 Registry Price of: $13.00 Expenses of: $150,000 at a 60% renewal rate
We’re off…