1. Population explosion a threat to national security (case study of Pakistan)

2. Group Members Saba Ali Nadia Bibi Nighat Razaq Farah QureshiQuaid-e-azam university 3. Presentation distribution Introduction by Farah Qureshi Population and Pakistan demographic dilemma by Saba Ali How population leads to threat and Malthus's theory by Nadia Bibi Causes ,effects and steps by Nighat Razaq Conclusion by Farah Qureshi 4. Population and National security Understanding population growth and other demographic trends iscrucial to national security, as population issues play a central role in efforts to ensure national defense, avoid societal collapse, and meet citizens basic needs. One danger affecting our national security is the world's overpopulation. Population growth as one of three top destabilizing trends facing the world. expert argue that there is a simple causal relationship between demography and security, for example: A total fertility rate of five children per woman indicates that civil war will break out 20 years from now, or that a country cannot remain stable unless its age distribution resembles a bell curvedemographic trends can clearly interact with poverty, poor governance, competition for natural resources, and environmental degradation to contribute to conflict. http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5853 5. According to the National Intelligence Council report:a key driver for the Middle East over the next 15 years will be demographic pressures, specially how to provide jobs, housing, public services, and subsidies for rapidly growing and increasingly urban populations. By 2015, in much of the middle east, populations will be significantly larger, poorer, more urban and more disillusioned.http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1734&dat=20030315&id=FVUqAAAAIBAJ&sjid=JFMEAAAAIBAJ&pg=61 36,1356742 The Dispatch, Lexington, N.C. 15 March,2003. 6. Direct threats Indirect threats 7. Pakistan's demographic dilemma Total population: 178.9 million people in 2012 from45.9 million in 1960 From 1960 until 2012: 102.8 Million 178.9 Million (December 2012) In December 1960: record low of 45.9 Million 2.56 percent of the worlds total population 39 people on the planet is a resident of PakistanPakistan Bureau of Statistics 8. Pakistan launched one of the first population controlprograms in the late 1950s World population increased from 3.6 billion to 7billion(1970 and 2011).http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/habitats/urbanthreats2/ 9. According World Population Clock Current World Population: 7 billion Top 20 Largest Countries by Population Pakistan Rank 6 Population 83,340,537 in 2013 Population in the world is currently growing at a rate of around 1.14%per year. United Nations estimates: The human population of the world is expected to reach 8 billion people in the spring of 2024. http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ 10. PakistancountryHistorical population Data per Year2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012141,55 3,800144, 616, 600147,6 63,40 0150,6 94,7 00159,1 96,3 00162,4 20,00 0165, 803, 600164,7 172,8 176,2 184, 187,3 190, 41,9 00,0 42,9 404, 42,70 291,1 00 00 00 800 0 00http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=pk&v=21 11. Pakist Count an ryHistorical Unemployment rate (%) Data per Year 199 199 20 8 9 0020 0120 0220 0320 0420 0520 0620 0720 0820 09201 201 201 0 1 26.07.88.28.27.67.66.25.35.25.45.566.85.97.6http://world-economic-outlook.findthedata.org/l/4237/Pakistan 12. Key to HDI countries and ranks, 2012 A country is efficiently using its income foradvancement in the two non income HDI dimensions. The non-income HDI is calculated to provide an additional means of cross-country comparison and to order countries by achievements in the non-income dimensions. Pakistan 146Human Development Report 2013 13. Multidimensional Poverty Index(Estimates based on surveys for 20072011) Population in multidimensional povertyMultidimensional Poverty IndexHeadcountPopulation below income poverty line (%)Intensity of deprivationPopulation vulnerable to povertyPopulation in severe povertyContribution of deprivation to overall poverty (%)PPP $1.25 a dayNational poverty lineYearPakistanValue(%)(th ous and s)(%)(%)(%)Educ atio nHealthLiving standar ds2002 2011c2002 2012c2006/ 2007 (D)0.264 d49.4 d81,2 36 d53.4 d11.0 d27.4 d30.837.931.221.022.3Human Development Report 2013 14. Population trends TotalAnnual growthUrbanMedian ageTotal depende ncy ratioTotal fertility rateSex ratio at birth(millions)(%)(% of total)(years)(per 100 people ages 15 64)(births per woman)(male to female births)2012Paki stan 146180. 020302000 /20052010/ 2015a ,c2000201220002012200020122000201220002012234.41.91.833.136.519.021.782.863.44.53.21.051.05 15. Population overview Crude birth and death rate30 25 20 crude birth rate15crude death rate population(mln)10 5 0 200820092010201120122013Pakistan Economic Survey 2012-13 Source: National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS) Population Census Organizations 16. Urban and Rural Population (Millions) YearUrban PopulationRural Population200858.74107.67200960.87109.07201063.05110.46201165.28111.82201267.55113.16201369.87114.48Source: Population Census Organization, National Institute of Population Studies(NIPS) 17. Large population is not a blessing but it is a curse forthe nation as well as for the country and its resources No progress is possible without controlling population 18. Pakistan population is increasing and there is a fear that in the near future it will creates more problems because of the non serious attitude of controlling population in our country, among the married couples and lack of awareness results in high population growth rate. 19. Population Unemployment Emergence of Youth issuesEconomic instability Threat to national securitySocial ProblemsPovertyViolence 20. Malthus Theories He believed that only bad could come from population growth. Population he said grows faster than food supply. This he said was because food supply can only grow arithmetically. Consequently, there is no way food supply can keep up with population growth.Population grows exponentially, for example, 1-2-4-8-16-32-64. Food supply grows arithmetically, for example, 1-23-4-5-6. Therefore, population will inevitably exceed food supply.http://www.s-cool.co.uk/a-level/geography/population/revise-it/population-models 21. He said population could exceed food supply only to be positively "checked" (reduced) by famine, war, and disease.Population exceeds food supply and is kept in check by war, famine, or disease. It then drops below the food supply. As the population recovers, so the cycle continues. 22. Boserup offers a hopeful alternative to MalthusBoserup argues that as the population approaches the limits of the food supply, that food supply increases as new technology improves yields. 23. CAUSES OF OVER POPULATION IN PAKISTAN High birth rate Polygamy (having more than one wife or husband at the same time) Desire for male child Early marriages Lack of education Low Per Capita Income Unemployment Afghan Refugees Low Death Rate Urbanization Universality of Marriage Absence of Other Activities 24. EFFECTS OF OVER POPULATION Poverty Unemployment Environmental problem Pressure on land Health problems Proper care of children's in limited resources Deviant behavior Increase in crime because lack of resources High Rate of Inflation 25. Solutions or steps Combat poverty by promoting economic development and job creation. This issue should be discussed at national and global level Involve local community in local government.. need awareness and support Media can play an important role Control the Birth Rate Health Centers High Literacy Rate Family Planning 26. Rabbi Royan, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) chief in Pakistan said. 'It is important that provincial and federal authorities demonstratetheir full commitment through sustained and prioritized allocation of additional resources to family planning services and commodities'http://populationmatters.org/2012/newswatch/pakistan-invest-slow-population-growth Pakistan must invest to slow population growth November 17th 2012 27. CONCLUSION: Over population is the threat for the stability and strengthening of any nation. In the result inflation time larger families are not a blessing but a curse. So steps should be taken to aware the people that if the families will be small than they can enjoy their lives with all the facilities and the next coming generation will be healthy and organized due to the proper attention of parents. Education should be promoted in small villages and town. 28. Links http://www.tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/population http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/habitats/urban-threats2/ http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1734&dat=20030315&id=FVUqAAAAIBAJ&sjid =JFMEAAAAIBAJ&pg=6136,1356742 http://www.s-cool.co.uk/a-level/geography/population/revise-it/population-models http://populationmatters.org/2012/newswatch/pakistan-invest-slow-population-growth