New Ocean Energy - Kim Eng · 11/21/2013 · New Ocean Energy Got Pizzazz, Got Game; Initiate at...

SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

Hong Kong Initiating Coverage 21 November 2013

New Ocean Energy Got Pizzazz, Got Game; Initiate at BUY Initiate with BUY and Street-high TP of HKD7.30, 48% upside. We believe New Ocean Energy (NOE) is on the cusp of its second transformation. We project earnings to grow at 28% CAGR between 2013 and 2016. Despite the far superior growth momentum, we peg our target price at 11x FY14F EPS, a 30% discount to its gas and refined products distribution peers given the difference in size and liquidity.

Act 2: Bunkering service. Having successfully cannibalised its competitors in the Guangdong residential and industrial liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) markets, NOE is set on building a bunkering service empire, leveraging on the cost advantage from its oil terminal and strong operating cash flow from its LPG operation. We expect it will become one of the top two players in Hong Kong’s bunker market once it completes the construction of its storage facility.

Strong core profit, strong cash flow. Despite being the largest LPG supplier in Guangdong, NOE is forging ahead to extend its market share lead on the back of strong industrial demand in the Pearl River Delta area and economies of scale. Its JV with Sinopec will further penetrate the auto service and residential markets, consolidate its market position and strengthen pricing and margin controls.

No let-up in organic growth. Earnings growth over the past two years has been explosive, largely driven by NOE’s pursuit of acquisitions. But we expect the next phase of corporate development to be fuelled by organic growth in the oil bunkering service and LPG retail distribution in Hong Kong. We project NOE to generate over 18%/31% FCF yield in FY14/15 upon the completion of its berth drenching and LPG tank expansion.

Risk factors. 1) Higher tax rate vis-à-vis FY12’s low effective tax rate of 4%, as NOE’s sales are conducted with bonded storage via offshore entity. 2) Income from interest rate swap. 3) Long-term threat from LNG.

41% discount to NPV. Our target price of HKD7.30 is based on 11x FY14F EPS, which also implies a 41% discount to our projected DCF value (assuming 12% WACC, 0% terminal growth and 15% inflation).

New Ocean Energy – Summary Earnings Table FYE Dec (HKDm) 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Revenue 12,456 18,531 24,201 28,869 EBITDA 750 1,064 1,335 1,682 Recurring Net Profit 427 721 898 1,179 Recurring Basic EPS (cents) 0.32 0.52 0.66 0.86 EPS growth (%) 27.8 63.5 27.1 31.2 DPS (cents) 0.04 0.08 0.10 0.13

PER (x) 15.7 9.6 7.6 5.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 43.5 10.2 8.0 6.4 Div Yield (%) 0.8 1.6 2.0 2.6 P/BV (x) 2.5 1.7 1.5 1.2

Net Gearing (%) 116.1 26.4 39.3 33.1 ROE (%) 16.5 18.2 19.0 20.6 Consensus Net Profit (HKDm) 427 715 852 1,021 Source: Company data, Maybank Kim Eng

Buy (new) Share price: HKD4.98 Target price: HKD7.30 (new) Howard WONG [email protected] (852) 2268 0648

Stock Information Description: New Ocean Energy is the largest liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) distributor in Guangdong Province, China. The company ventured into the bunker market in 2011 and is currently among the top five providers in Hong Kong. Ticker: 342 HK Shares Issued (m): 1,483 Market Cap (USDm): 945 3-mth Avg Daily Turnover (USDm): 5.2 HSI: 23,580.3 Free Float (%): 49.7 Major Shareholders: % Shum Family 39.21 FIL Limited 8.06 Temasek Holdings 6.15 Tak Cheung Yam 4.93 Key Indicators ROE – annualised (%) 18.2 Net cash/(debt) HKDm: (1,552) NTA/shr (HKD): 1.47 Interest cover (x): 7.0 Historical Chart

Performance: 52-week High/Low HKD5.7/HKD3.4 1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr YTD Absolute (%) 0% 4% -8% 44% 9% Relative (%) -1% -4% -9% 34% 4%

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Source: Bloomberg

21 November 2013 Page 2 of 23

NewOcean Energy Holdings Limited

NOE at a glance Figure 1: LPG industrial gross margin – NOE vs competitors

Source: Company; Maybank Kim Eng

Figure 2: NOE – Bunkering and refined products volume growth


Figure 3: NOE – LPG volume growth


Figure 4: NOE – Gross profit growth

Source: Company, Maybank Kim Eng

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With its own oil terminal and lower procurement cost, NOE has

a USD20/MT edge over its competitors – any day of the year.

Growth will be underpinned by strong cash flow from LPG

segment, driven by industrial and HK retail volume.

Expect 28% EBITDA CAGR between 2013 and 2016, with

18%/31% FCF yields for 2014/2015, without taking

commodity risk.

Volume is the name of the game. Expect NOE’s bunkering volume

to triple in the next 3 years.



Got game Initiate with BUY and Street-high target price of HKD7.30. We believe New Ocean Energy (NOE) is on the cusp of its second transformation. Its success so far is underpinned by two key factors: (1) competitive cost structure thanks to its own oil terminal in Zhuhai, one of the 10 that is not controlled by the government, and (2) strong cash flow from its LPG distribution operation. Indeed, it has successfully cannibalised its competitors in the Guangdong residential and industrial LPG markets, and is now set on establishing a bunkering service empire, leveraging on the cost advantage from its oil terminal and strong operating cash flow from its LPG operation. We project earnings to grow at 28% CAGR between 2013 and 2016. Despite the far superior growth momentum, we peg our target price at 11x FY14F EPS, in line with the sector average.

Foray into bunker market. Bunkering service is a very fragmented market, with 11 key players in Hong Kong. However, only very few players have access to privately-owned oil terminal and storage facilities, the main determinants of profitability and competitiveness in this cutthroat game. More importantly, such infrastructure is not easily replicable due to restrictive licensing and long approval process. In short, we believe NOE’s competitive position will unlikely be eroded in the medium term.

From M&A pursuits to organic growth. NOE’s explosive earnings growth over the past two years was largely driven by its inorganic acquisitions in the LPG distribution and retail service markets. However, the next phase of earnings growth would be fuelled by organic growth in the oil bunkering service and LPG retail distribution in Hong Kong. We expect NOE’s share in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region’s bunker market to increase to 20% after the completion of its storage facility in Hong Kong.

With the cost advantage from operating its own receiving terminal, we believe the company would be able to generate close to HKD1b operating cash flow from its LPG distribution business from 2014. Backed by strong core operations and a track record in fuel supply in the PRD region, NOE is set to emerge as a top bunkering service provider. What’s more, there may be further cost savings post its expansion in Zhuhai in 2015.

Valuation analysis. Our target price of HKD7.30 is based on 11x FY14F earnings, the sector’s average multiple over the past three years. This is despite the fact that we believe NOE is well able to deliver far superior earnings growth in the coming years. As a cross reference, we have performed a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. Assuming 12% WACC and 0% terminal growth rate, we arrive at a fair value of HKD8.23. We believe the stock is currently trading at a 41% discount to its DCF.

Risk factors. 1) NOE’s effective tax rate was a mere 4% in FY12. We assume effective tax rate will increase to 6% from 2014. 2) Non-operating income from interest rate swap gain from the appreciation of CNY. These gains might not be sustainable as the interest rate environment changes and the movement of the CNY against the USD remains unpredictable in the future. 3) LNG is a threat in our view, albeit a long-dated one, since the current price of natural gas in China simply does not justify the economics of building such a terminal. Furthermore, with over 65% share in the auto gas market in Guangzhou, NOE will have first-mover advantage. Its LPG demand is also mainly driven by industrial consumption for feedstock purposes, instead of residential heating.

We expect 28% earnings CAGR between 2013 and 2016,

supported by bunkering volume and HK retail volume.

Based on a 20-year cash flow projection, NOE is trading at 41%

discount to our estimated NPV.

NOE owns 1 of the 10 non-state-controlled oil terminals in China.



Valuation We derive our target price of HKD7.30 based on 11x 2014F earnings, the stock’s average multiple in the past 12 months. Despite NOE’s far superior earnings growth, we have pegged our multiple at a 30% discount to its peers. To us, the discount is justified due to the differences in market capitalisation and liquidity between NOE and its peers. But we believe it would narrow as management delivers on its operational targets in the coming quarters. In short, we see upside to our target multiple.

We have also performed a NPV analysis to illustrate NOE’s strong cash flow generation capability in the coming years. Based on our operational projections through 2020, and assigning 12% WACC and 0% terminal growth value, we arrive at a NPV value of HKD8.23 per share, which implies that the stock currently trades at a 41% discount to its NPV per share.

Figure 5: NOE – valuation comparison with peers

Mkt cap 90D

turnover PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%) Ticker Price Currency (USDb) (USDm) 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E PetroChina 857-HK 9.49 HKD 235.0 105.6 10.9 10.2 1.2 1.1 5.4 5.1 11.0 10.9 Sinopec 386-HK 6.99 HKD 97.0 73.7 8.9 8.2 1.1 1.0 4.9 4.5 12.6 12.4 CNOOC 883-HK 15.86 HKD 91.3 114.9 8.8 8.5 1.5 1.4 4.6 4.1 17.6 16.2 Average 9.5 9.0 1.3 1.2 5.0 4.6 13.7 13.2

Chinese Gas / Refined Products Distributors New Ocean Energy 342 HK 4.98 HKD 0.9 5.2 9.6 7.6 1.7 1.5 10.2 8.0 18.2 19.0 ENN 2688 HK 45.05 HKD 6.3 13.5 21.6 17.7 3.8 3.2 10.4 8.9 17.6 18.0 China Gas 384 HK 8.98 HKD 5.6 8.7 19.0 16.2 3.0 2.6 12.2 10.3 15.9 16.3 Sinopec Kanton 934 HK 6.63 HKD 2.1 5.7 27.2 18.5 1.7 1.6 53.0 43.2 6.2 8.4 Kunlun Energy 135 HK 12.98 HKD 13.5 40.8 14.1 12.5 2.1 1.9 6.9 6.0 14.7 15.0 China Resources Gas 1193 HK 20.05 HKD 5.8 8.6 20.5 16.7 3.2 2.8 10.8 8.7 15.7 16.8 HK&China Gas 3 HK 17.96 HKD 22.1 23.9 23.6 22.0 3.5 3.3 20.1 18.4 14.8 14.9 Towngas China 1083 HK 7.63 HKD 2.6 3.1 19.0 15.9 1.7 1.5 16.2 13.7 9.0 9.4 Beijing Enterprise 392 HK 63.65 HKD 9.6 9.0 19.7 16.0 1.7 1.6 16.3 14.4 8.7 9.8

Average 19.3 15.9 2.5 2.2 17.0 14.3 13.5 14.0 Source: Maybank Kim Eng

Figure 6: NOE – NPV analysis (HKD m) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Year 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 Pre-tax Profit 161 155 333 446 767 956 1,254 1,588 1,924 2,033 2,152 2,274 Tax (43) (18) (30) (18) (46) (57) (75) (95) (115) (122) (129) (136) Depreciation & Amortization 48 52 62 121 149 168 183 189 194 198 203 208 Net Investment Cashflow (766) (1,474) (2,526) (111) 595 (495) (384) (200) (173) (173) (173) (173) Free Cash Flow (600) (1,285) (2,161) 439 1,465 572 978 1,482 1,830 1,937 2,053 2,173 PV 1,465 572 873 1,182 1,303 1,231 1,165 1,101

HKDm HKD/sh PV (2014 to 2020) $7,426 5.33 WACC (k) 12.0% PV (2021 to 2030) $5,582 4.01 Terminal Growth (g) 0% Net Debt ($1,552) ($1.11) Cost Inflation 15% NPV $11,456 8.23 Number of Share (FD) 1,392.64 Source: Maybank Kim Eng

Figure 7: NOE – 12M forward PER bands Figure 8: NOE – 12M forward P/BV bands

Source: Company data, Maybank Kim Eng Source: Company data, Maybank Kim Eng

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Company profile NOE is the largest liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) distributor in Guangdong, the biggest LPG consuming province in China. It operates a 50,000DWT VLGC (Very Large Gas Carrier) receiving terminal, 20 auto service stations and 16 LPG bottling plants. More importantly, we expect the company will emerge as one of the top two market share leaders in bunkering oil service in the Pearl River Delta region within the next 36 months. NOE obtained its listing status via a backdoor acquisition in 1999. The company recorded annual sales of HKD12.5b in 2012 and net profit of HKD427m, achieving almost 60% CAGR since 1999. LPG currently accounts for over 80% of its earnings. However, with its plan to expand into the bunkering fuel service and retail LPG distribution in Hong Kong, the bunkering oil segment should contribute one third of its earnings by 2015.

NOE operates in three business segments: 1) transportation of LPG and refined products (ie, bunkering oil), 2) wholesale distribution of LPG and bunkering fuel, and 3) retail distribution of LPG and bunkering fuel.

Figure 9: NOE – an integrated LPG and refined products distributor


NOE is the largest LPG distributor in Guangdong.

Bunkering oil and HK LPG retail will be the next growth drivers.



Industrial LPG: What’s in the secret sauce? Investors often question NOE’s business model, in particular the sustainability of its growth. They ask why the company is able to expand at the expense of its competitors. The short answer is: NOE is able to provide a much sought-after product at competitive prices and with great supply reliability. We elaborate as follows:

1) LPG’s calorific value is 75% of that in gasoline, yet its retail price is merely 55% of gasoline’s. More importantly, LPG releases 50% less carbon dioxide than coal and 20% less than heating oil. If consumers in China have a choice, we believe LPG will be their natural choice of energy. But it is not, because there is as yet not enough LPG to go around.

Figure 10: LPG vs gasoline – Calorific value Figure 11: LPG vs gasoline – Retail price

Source: Maybank Kim Eng Source: Maybank Kim Eng

2) The global LPG market consumes approximately 250m MT pa, with 47% of consumption coming from residential cooking and heating demand and 9% from auto gas, the fastest-growing segment at 4.6% pa. LPG comes from two main sources – as a by-product from oil refining or associated gas production. The former represents roughly 40% of global supply, while the latter accounts for 60%.

LPG makes up no more than 4% of refining yield. Therefore, the supply from refining is limited by the amount of new refining capacity, which is growing at roughly 5% pa in China and less than 3% around the world.

LPG is composed primarily of propane and butane, while natural gas is composed of lighter hydrocarbon compounds such as methane and ethane. Natural gas which contains a higher percentage of propane and butane is considered “wet” gas, but the yield of LPG from natural gas varies from 1-10% depending on the nature of the gas. Natural gas currently accounts for less than 4% of China’s energy structure due to limitations in infrastructure.

China’s annual consumption is around 25m MT, of which around 15% were imported in 2012. Currently, domestic LPG production growth is driven by refinery output, which is growing at around 5% pa. Demand is hence limited by supply, and we believe the shortfall in gas supply will widen in the years to come.

3) The key to success in the LPG business is access to resources at a competitive cost. We believe what sets NOE apart from its competitors is its ownership of an oil terminal in Zhuhai, Guangdong.

Given that LPG is a commodity, the only difference between suppliers is price and supply reliability. With its own terminal, NOE can avoid all handling and transportation fees, which make up a significant part of overall costs. Thus, even as a price-taker, NOE’s margin jumps multi-fold vis-à-vis its competitors.

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NOE’s secret: Supplying a much sought-after product at

competitive prices and with great supply reliability.



NOE sources ~40% of its LPG from the national oil companies in the Middle East, such Qatar and Kuwait, and the other 60% from refiners in China.

For industrial users, reliability of supply is more important than pricing. When a petrochemical plant uses LPG as either energy source or feedstock, a disruption of supply or fluctuation in feedstock quality will have a devastating impact on its operation. Therefore, the track record of a supplier is essential to win long-term contracts.

The industrial growth we project in the next three fiscal years are indeed reverse demand from NOE’s existing downstream customers, namely, Maoming Petrochemical, BP Zhuhai (world’s largest PTA plant) and United Petrochemical Corp. Based on their scheduled expansion, these three accounts alone can potentially generate over 2m MT of annual demand between 2013 and 2016, vs our projection of 200,000 MT pa.

Figure 12: LPG distribution chain

Source: Wold LP Gas Association, Maybank Kim Eng



LPG market in Guangdong Residential market – cannibalisation in progress. The residential LPG market is a low-growth market as urban customers switch into city gas. But that does not imply there is zero growth for NOE in this segment. The company’s residential volume has increased by 50% between 2009 and 2013, while the total market size remained stagnant.

NOE has been the major beneficiary of the market cannibalisation thanks to its infrastructure and procurement advantage. The company estimates that poor profitability has caused the number of LPG bottle providers to shrink from over 800 in 2010 to 500 currently, dwindling further to less than 200 by 2015. Fierce competition aside, the rapid decline could also be exacerbated by the gold rush in the property market, where bottling plant sites were converted into residential property developments.

Another critical factor that we expect will support NOE’s residential market growth is its ability to secure strategically important locations for new bottling plants. Since LPG is highly flammable, very stringent environmental and safety requirements are necessary and setting up a plant in an ideal location in highly populated areas can be very challenging. As service stations already have the necessary licensing, the two partners can convert subpar service stations into LPG bottling plants in order to penetrate the high potential communities.

Figure 13: NOE – LPG volume growth


Figure 14: NOE – bottled gas volume growth


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Residential market in Guangdong has been stagnant. However, NOE

posted over 50% volume growth in the past 4 years. Cost and reliability

are the key factors.



Auto gas market – if you can’t beat them, join them. NOE’s rapid expansion in the auto gas segment was achieved through the acquisition of Lianxin Energy in 2010. The deal came with 17 auto-gas service stations in Guangzhou, of which 13 are strategically located adjacent to public bus terminals.

We view the acquisition of Lianxin Energy as one of the key turning points in NOE’s corporate history. As the company morphed from a wholesaler to a fully integrated LPG service provider, it can leverage on its cost advantage in shipping and transportation to unlock the vast potential in the retail market.

To further enhance its leadership position, NOE formed a joint venture with Sinopec Guangdong in April 2013. It will inject all its 17 service stations into the new vehicle while Sinopec will inject three service stations and convert five of its suboptimal refined products stations into LPG refilling stations. Through this JV, both companies sought to consolidate their service networks. We estimate that auto gas would account for 15% of NOE’s LPG volume in 2013 but contribute nearly 40% of the firm’s profit.

Figure 15: NOE – auto gas service stations


Figure 16: NOE – auto gas volume growth


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Bunker market in China According to ICIS, China’s bunkering oil market is approximately 21m MT in 2012, down around 8% YoY due to weak exporting markets and competition from other Asian countries such as South Korea and Russia. However, between 2006 and 2012, the market almost quadrupled in size. In 2012, the Yangzi Delta region accounted for 46% of volume, followed by the Bohai Ring region at 29% while southern China made up 25% of the nation’s volume. Sales in southern China were mainly concentrated around the Pearl River Delta region, led by Shenzhen and Guangzhou.

However, if we combine sales in the Hong Kong territory, the total volume around the Pearl River Delta region would amount to 45% of China’s aggregate. As illustrated in Figures 16 and 17, three of the world’s top 10 container ports are located in the Pearl River Delta region, making maritime routes in this area among the busiest globally.

Figure 17: Top 10 container terminal ports in the world

Rank Port, Country Volume 2012

(m TEUs) Volume 2011

(m TEUs) 1 Shanghai, China 32.53 31.74 2 Singapore, Singapore 31.65 29.94 3 Hong Kong, China 23.1 24.38 4 Shenzhen, China 22.94 22.57 5 Busan, South Korea 17.04 16.18 6 Ningbo-Zhoushan, China 16.83 14.72 7 Guangzhou Harbor, China 14.74 14.42 8 Qingdao, China 14.5 13.02 9 Jebel Ali, Dubai, United Arab Emirates 13.3 13

10 Tianjin, China 12.3 11.59 Source: World Shipping Council, Maybank Kim Eng

Figure 18: Maritime routes in Asia

Source: Hofstra University, Maybank Kim Eng

3 of the world’s top 10 container terminal ports are located in the

Pearl River Delta region.



Bunker market in Hong Kong Hong Kong’s bunkering oil market is roughly 8m MT in 2012, declining by 1.7% YoY due to a number of one-off events, vs a five-year CAGR of 10% since 2009. There are currently 11 service providers. The market leader is Chimbusco Pan Nation, a joint venture between CNPC Group and COSCO Group, with almost one third of the market share in the first nine months of 2013. Chimbusco is also the only provider with own storage facilities.

NOE entered the bunkering service market in 2011 and quickly established itself as a reliable provider in this highly competitive arena. In 2012, it successfully obtained the sole supply contract for Hong Kong government vessels between 2013 and 2014. Although the contract with the territory’s government is merely 14,000 MT of annual volume, the appointment serves as a seal of confidence in NOE’s reliability and competitiveness.

Despite being a relatively new bunkering service provider in Hong Kong, NOE’s market share is already ranked among the top five for the first nine months of 2013. We believe the completion of its storage tanks in 2014 will see NOE becoming one of the top two bunkering service providers in Hong Kong, winning market share from other marginal players which have no procurement and/or storage advantages.

Figure 19: Hong Kong bunker market share (Sept 2013) Supplier Sept-13 Share 1 Chimbusco Pan Nation 200,000 32.7% 2 Vermont Marine Bunkering 105,000 17.2% 3 Soaring Dragon 55,000 9.0% 4 Chuan Xin (China) Group 52,000 8.5% 5 NewOcean 40,000 6.5% 6 Coastal Petrochemical & Investment 38,000 6.2% 7 Seven Seas 32,000 5.2% 8 Sinopec (Hong Kong) 30,000 4.9% 9 Feoso Oil 22,000 3.6%

10 Bominflot 20,000 3.3% Source: ICIS, Maybank Kim Eng

Figure 20: Map of the Pearl River Delta region

Source: Fulbright Hong Kong, Maybank Kim Eng

Upon completion of its storage tanks in 2014, we expect NOE to

become one of the top two bunkering service providers in

Hong Kong.

In 2012, NOE successfully obtained the sole supply contract

for Hong Kong government vessels between 2013 and 2014.



Financial statements

Figure 21: Income Statement (2009-2016E) HKD m Dec '09 Dec '10 Dec '11 Dec '12 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Sales/Revenue 6,483.1 8,477.7 10,116.6 12,456.4 18,530.7 24,201.0 28,869.2 32,989.3 COGS excluding D&A 6,043.3 7,983.0 9,631.0 11,290.4 17,003.8 22,261.1 26,465.8 30,132.9 Depreciation & Amortization Expense 47.7 52.3 61.7 121.4 149.0 168.3 182.8 189.4 Gross Profit 392.1 442.4 423.9 1,044.5 1,377.9 1,771.6 2,220.6 2,667.0 Gross Margin 6.0% 5.2% 4.2% 8.4% 7.4% 7.3% 7.7% 8.1% SG&A Expense 177.4 211.1 277.3 416.2 463.3 605.0 721.7 824.7 EBIT (Operating Income) 214.7 231.3 146.5 628.3 914.6 1,166.6 1,498.9 1,842.3 EBIT Margin 3.3% 2.7% 1.4% 5.0% 4.9% 4.8% 5.2% 5.6% Nonoperating Income (Expense) - Net 28.0 115.6 423.3 84.4 151.8 187.0 233.6 292.5 Nonoperating Interest Income 18.0 51.9 243.6 130.5 130.9 181.0 227.0 285.3 Equity in Earnings of Affiliates -- 0.2 0.9 1.2 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Income (Expense) 10.0 63.4 178.8 (47.3) 10.5 6.0 6.6 7.1 Interest Expense (72.6) (109.3) (205.4) (275.7) (313.5) (397.8) (478.5) (546.8) Unusual Income (Exp) - Net (9.1) (82.1) (31.5) 8.9 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pretax Income 161.1 155.5 332.9 445.9 766.9 955.8 1,253.9 1,588.0 Pretax Margin 2.5% 1.8% 3.3% 3.6% 4.1% 3.9% 4.3% 4.8% Income Taxes 42.6 18.1 29.9 17.7 46.0 57.3 75.2 95.3 Minority Interest Expense 0.0 0.7 (3.1) 1.6 (0.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Income 112.5 136.6 306.2 426.6 721.1 898.4 1,178.7 1,492.7 Net Margin 1.7% 1.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.9% 3.7% 4.1% 4.5% EPS (basic) 0.12 0.12 0.23 0.33 0.53 0.66 0.86 1.09 EPS (diluted) 0.12 0.11 0.23 0.33 0.52 0.65 0.85 1.07 DPS 0.010 0.010 0.023 0.038 0.079 0.099 0.129 0.164 Basic Shares Outstanding 975.5 1,179.3 1,305.9 1,305.9 1,367.0 1,367.0 1,367.0 1,367.0 Diluted Shares Outstanding 975.5 1,197.1 1,325.7 1,328.7 1,392.6 1,392.6 1,392.6 1,392.6 Source: Company data, Maybank Kim Eng

Figure 22: Balance Sheet (2009-2016E) HKD m Dec '09 Dec '10 Dec '11 Dec '12 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Cash & ST Investments 1,593 2,460 5,116 5,420 5,234 6,583 7,567 9,511 Short-Term Receivables 1,342 1,203 2,128 3,311 4,062 4,641 5,537 6,327 Inventories 426 470 619 893 1,203 1,514 1,770 1,996 Other Current Assets 3 642 569 232 228 265 277 316 Total Current Assets 3,364 4,774 8,433 9,856 10,728 13,003 15,150 18,150 Net Property, Plant & Equipment 572 668 942 1,363 1,421 1,692 1,859 1,869 Total Investments and Advances 6 11 59 242 242 242 242 242 Long-Term Note Receivable 0 0 644 0 0 0 0 0 Intangible Assets 136 143 105 649 616 585 556 528 Deferred Tax Assets 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 Other Assets 146 201 438 242 227 213 200 188 Total Assets 4,226 5,800 10,622 12,353 13,218 15,707 17,966 20,924 ST Debt & Curr. Portion LT Debt 2,058 3,347 6,788 5,912 6,600 7,956 8,700 9,942 Accounts Payable 954 461 1,074 3,259 2,031 2,321 2,768 3,163 Income Tax Payable 19 26 45 40 38 39 41 37 Other Current Liabilities 143 212 401 225 254 332 395 452 Total Current Liabilities 3,173 4,046 8,308 9,436 8,922 10,648 11,905 13,594 Long-Term Debt 18 254 445 187 187 187 187 187 Deferred Tax Liabilities 19 20 21 146 146 146 146 146 Other Liabilities 0 (0) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Liabilities 3,210 4,321 8,775 9,768 9,255 10,980 12,237 13,926 Total Shareholders' Equity 1,015 1,469 1,824 2,568 3,947 4,710 5,712 6,981 Accumulated Minority Interest 2 10 24 17 17 17 17 17 Total Equity 1,016 1,479 1,848 2,585 3,963 4,727 5,729 6,998 Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity 4,226 5,800 10,622 12,353 13,218 15,707 17,966 20,924 Book Value per Share 0.9 1.1 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.4 4.1 5.0 Source: Company data, Maybank Kim Eng



Figure 23: Cash Flow Statement (2009-2016E) HKD m Dec '09 Dec '10 Dec '11 Dec '12 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Operating Activities Net Income / Starting Line 155.1 155.5 332.9 812.5 721.1 898.4 1,178.7 1,492.7 Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization 47.7 52.3 61.7 121.5 134.5 154.7 170.0 177.4 Depreciation and Depletion 41.2 44.1 54.1 80.6 102.1 123.9 140.8 149.6 Amortization of Intangible Assets 6.5 8.2 7.6 40.8 32.4 30.8 29.3 27.8 Other Funds (16.3) 70.7 (19.2) (477.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Funds from Operations 186.5 278.4 375.5 456.2 855.6 1,053.1 1,348.7 1,670.1 Changes in Working Capital (247.6) (354.2) (881.2) 1,310.7 (758.3) 636.6 1,151.1 1,015.9 Receivables (315.3) 32.1 (1,368.2) 97.1 750.9 579.8 895.3 790.2 Inventories (287.7) (40.3) (119.3) (494.0) (310.2) (310.7) (255.8) (225.8) Accounts Payable 627.5 (505.1) 602.8 2,084.6 (1,228.2) 289.9 447.6 395.1 Other Assets/Liabilities (272.1) 159.1 3.6 (377.1) 29.2 77.7 63.9 56.4 Net Operating Cash Flow (61.1) (75.7) (505.7) 1,766.9 97.4 1,689.7 2,499.8 2,686.0 Investing Activities Capital Expenditures (18.9) (124.8) (348.5) (231.4) (200.0) (494.7) (383.9) (200.0) Net Assets from Acquisitions (19.2) (6.0) (118.2) (523.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sale of Fixed Assets & Businesses 0.1 0.6 47.4 146.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Purchase/Sale of Investments 0.0 (3.5) 0.0 (161.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sale/Maturity of Investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Funds (728.3) (1,340.6) (2,106.7) 658.9 795.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Investing Cash Flow (766.2) (1,474.2) (2,525.9) (110.9) 595.5 (494.7) (383.9) (200.0) Financing Activities Cash Dividends Paid (2.9) (11.6) (13.1) (30.0) (108.2) (134.8) (176.8) (223.9) Change in Capital Stock 188.8 263.2 0.0 0.0 755.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Issuance/Reduction of Debt, Net 653.8 1,480.5 3,517.3 (1,260.7) (1,236.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Funds 40.0 0.0 10.1 (40.0) 795.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Financing Cash Flow 879.6 1,732.2 3,514.3 (1,330.7) 315.0 (134.8) (176.8) (223.9) Exchange Rate Effect 0.5 3.2 14.7 (6.8) 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Miscellaneous Funds 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Change in Cash 52.8 185.5 497.4 318.5 1,018.7 1,060.3 1,939.1 2,262.1 Free Cash Flow (80.0) (200.5) (829.3) 1,535.5 692.8 1,195.0 2,115.9 2,486.0 CFPS (0.06) (0.06) (0.39) 1.35 0.07 1.24 1.83 1.96 Source: Company data, Maybank Kim Eng



Figure 24: NOE Operational Summary VOLUME 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E LPG - Wholesale 1,060,000 1,219,000 1,450,000 1,676,000 1,863,000 2,069,300 2,249,500 2,424,200 Re-exports 872,000 1,010,000 1,233,000 1,183,000 1,315,000 1,419,000 1,523,300 1,628,000 Industrial customers (incl. auto-gas retailers) 264,000 227,000 430,000 314,000 315,000 315,000 315,000 315,000 Other terminal/bottling plant 470,000 473,000 673,000 597,000 750,000 854,000 958,300 1,063,000 LPG - Retailing 188,000 209,000 217,000 493,000 548,000 650,300 726,200 796,200 Bottled LPG 188,000 209,000 217,000 249,000 291,800 364,100 410,000 460,000 - China 188,000 209,000 216,000 245,000 281,800 324,100 360,000 400,000 - Macau 1,000 4,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 - Hong Kong 25,000 30,000 35,000 LPG Auto-gas Refueling 244,000 256,200 286,200 316,200 336,200 Bunker + Refined Products Wholesale 800,000 1,500,000 2,100,000 2,600,000 Marine Bunkering (HK) 800,000 1,100,000 1,400,000 1,500,000 Marine Bunkering (Zhuhai) 200,000 400,000 600,000 Oil products 200,000 300,000 500,000 SALES 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E LPG - Wholesale 4,670.9 5,914.3 7,746.7 7,811.3 8,836.6 9,552.9 10,271.3 10,992.5 Re-exports 1,353.2 1,288.2 2,612.9 2,009.8 2,046.3 2,046.3 2,046.3 2,046.3 Industrial customers (incl. auto-gas retailers) 2,607.7 2,851.6 4,336.9 4,058.6 5,164.0 5,880.0 6,598.2 7,319.1 Other terminal/bottling plant 710.1 1,774.5 796.9 1,742.9 1,626.3 1,626.5 1,626.8 1,627.0 LPG - Retailing 1,051.1 1,317.7 1,428.4 3,760.7 4,328.5 5,361.3 5,950.1 6,548.3 Bottled LPG 1,051.1 1,317.7 1,428.4 1,860.4 2,213.2 3,084.3 3,464.3 3,904.8 - China 1,051.1 1,317.7 1,421.8 1,830.5 2,137.3 2,458.6 2,700.0 3,000.6 - Macau 6.6 29.9 75.8 113.8 150.0 187.5 - Hong Kong 511.9 614.3 716.7 LPG Auto-gas Refueling 1,900.3 2,115.3 2,277.0 2,485.8 2,643.5 Bunker + Refined Products Wholesale 4,481.3 8,402.4 11,763.4 14,564.2 Marine Bunkering (HK) 4,481.3 6,161.8 7,842.2 8,402.4 Marine Bunkering (Zhuhai) 1,120.3 2,240.6 3,361.0 Oil products 1,120.3 1,680.5 2,800.8 Electronic 760.0 1,245.0 941.7 884.4 884.4 884.4 884.4 884.4 Gross Profit 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E LPG - Wholesale 278.7 246.8 278.2 370.1 441.0 493.6 546.4 599.3 Re-exports 24.0 16.0 9.0 36.4 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.8 Industrial customers (incl. auto-gas retailers) 241.4 200.7 261.4 306.6 379.3 431.9 484.6 537.6 Other terminal/bottling plant 13.3 30.1 7.8 27.1 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 LPG - Retail 78.3 115.2 84.0 593.0 754.1 955.2 1,015.3 1,123.1 Bottled LPG 78.3 115.2 84.0 260.4 309.8 545.3 592.7 673.7 - China 78.3 115.2 83.6 256.3 299.2 344.2 351.0 390.1 - Macau 0.4 4.2 10.6 15.9 19.5 24.4 - Hong Kong 185.2 222.2 259.3 LPG Auto-gas Refueling 332.6 444.2 409.9 422.6 449.4 Bunker + Refined Products Wholesale 112.0 252.1 588.2 873.8 Marine Bunkering (HK) 112.0 184.9 392.1 504.1 Marine Bunkering (Zhuhai) 33.6 112.0 201.7 Oil products 16.8 42.0 84.0 Electronic 36.0 78.0 62.1 88.0 70.8 70.8 70.8 70.8 Gross Margin Per MT (US$) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E LPG - Wholesale Re-exports 12 9 3 15 15 15 15 15 Industrial customers (incl. auto-gas retailers) 66 55 50 66 65 65 65 65 Other terminal/bottling plant 14 14 9 16 16 16 16 17 LPG - Retail Bottled LPG 54 71 50 230 256 274 260 260 - China 54 71 50 134 136 137 125 125 - Macau 50 134 136 137 125 125 - Hong Kong 952 952 952 952 LPG Auto-gas Refueling 175 223 184 172 172 Bunker + Refined Products Wholesale Marine Bunkering (HK) 18 22 36 43 Marine Bunkering (Zhuhai) 18 22 36 43 Oil products 18 22 36 43 LPG - Wholesale Re-exports 12 9 3 15 15 15 15 15 Industrial customers (incl. auto-gas retailers) 66 55 50 66 65 65 65 65 Source: Company data, Maybank Kim Eng



Risk factors Low tax rate. NOE’s effective tax rate was a mere 4% in FY12. This was because its storage facilities in Zhuhai are bonded and sales registered outside of the country are exempted from tax. Moreover, NOE conducts most of its LPG procurement via an offshore vehicle and the bulk of its earnings are thus also exempted from tax.

As earnings contributions from the bunkering services and LPG retail sales in Hong Kong increase, we expect effective taxation to rise in tandem in the coming years. We assume the effective tax rate will climb to 6% from 2014. More importantly, if China were to adjust its tax code in the future and eliminate offshore profit exemption, NOE may see a significant jump in its effective tax rate.

Non-operating income. NOE has recorded non-operating income, which accounted for 20% of its pre-tax profit over the past few years. According to management, the interest rate swap the company engaged in has reaped gains from the appreciation of the CNY. Due to the difference in settlement days, NOE has been borrowing USD in terms to settle its CNY debt. As a result of the difference in interest rates and the appreciation of the CNY, NOE has been reporting gains over the years. However, these gains might not be sustainable as the interest rate environment changes and the movement of the CNY against the USD remains unpredictable in the future.

Competition from LNG. Investors have raised concerns about the threat posed by alternative fuel substitutes, as most cities in Northern China are actually based on LNG, especially for heating purposes. We believe they are being unduly worried and cite two reasons. First, under other refined products, LNG is transported under high pressure and will require a custom receiving terminal for the deliquification process. But the current price of natural gas in China simply does not justify the economics of building such a terminal. Second, NOE has over 65% share of the auto gas market in Guangzhou and 25% of the residential market in Guangdong. If the government plans to make a switch into LNG, NOE will definitely be consulted to ensure a smooth transition. This would give the company first-mover advantage. Besides, NOE already has the land resources and engineering plans in place, which can be kick-started with a lag time of less than three months.

Furthermore, over 80% of NOE’s LPG sales are from captive industrial customers, who use LPG as their feedstock, instead of residential heating. We have used such sales as the main premise of our growth assumptions for NOE between 2013 and 2017.



Management profile (Extract from 2012 Annual Report)

Executive Directors Shum Siu Hung, aged 54, is the chairman of the company. Mr Shum is responsible for the formulation and implementation of corporate policies and strategies. He has over 20 years of experience in international trading and investment in China.

Shum Chun, Lawrence, aged 34, was appointed the managing director of the company in 2009. Mr Shum graduated from the University of Saskatchewan with a Bachelor of Arts degree, majoring in Economics. Prior to joining the company in 2004, he pursued a career in finance and accountancy in an international accounting firm. He is the son of Mr Shum Siu Hung.

Cen Ziniu, aged 44, graduated from Shanghai Jiao Tong University and has been involved in trading businesses in Hong Kong and China, holding senior managerial positions. Mr Cen has extensive experience in dealership management, business formation and marketing. He is responsible for market development of the group and overseas operations. He is a cousin of Chairman.

Chiu Sing Chung, Raymond, aged 54, has been executive director and head of the group’s liquefied petroleum gas operations since Aug 2003. He is now in charge of liquefied petroleum gas operations in China and worldwide. Mr Chiu has over 20 years of experience in banking and management. He has been involved in the financing and supervision of business projects in China since the late 1980s and was in charge of a wide range of projects.

Siu Ka Fai, Brian, aged 50, graduated from the Chinese University of Hong Kong with a Bachelor of Arts degree. He pursued a further course of study in real estate at the University of British Columbia in Canada and had over 20 years of experience in the investment and real estate field, working with various reputable companies in Hong Kong and China. Mr Siu joined the group in 2005 and is currently in charge of its purchasing and re-export operations.

Wang Jian, aged 33, graduated from Guangzhou Jinan University with a bachelor’s degree in Economics and a Master in Finance. Prior to joining the group in 2008, he was engaged by a major bank in mainland China and worked in its banking business department.

Non-Executive Directors Cheung Kwan Hung, Anthony, aged 61, has been an independent non-executive director since Aug 2001. Mr Cheung is an associate member of the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants and the Hong Kong Institute of Certified Public Accountants. He has over 30 years of experience in the account, finance and investment banking profession.

Chan Yuk Wai, Benedict, aged 54, has been an independent non-executive director since Mar 2006. Mr Chan is a holder of a Master of Science Degree in Applied Mechanics and a registered professional engineer in Hong Kong and the UK. He is the recipient of the UK Institution of Mechanical Engineers Outstanding Project Prince Award 1981.

Figure 25: NOE – directors’ individual holdings Name Position Stock (m) Option (m) Total (m) Holding SHUM Siu Hung Chairman 516.1 9.9 526.0 37.8% SHUM Chun, Lawrence Managing Director 123.5 0.0 123.5 8.9% CEN Ziniu Executive Director 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% CHIU Sing Chung, Raymond Executive Director 0.0 6.6 6.6 0.5% SIU Ka Fai, Brian Executive Director 0.0 5.0 5.0 0.4% WANG Jian Executive Director 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% CHEUNG Kwan Hung, Anthony Non-Exec Director 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.1% Total 662.27 47.6% Source: Company, Maybank Kim Eng



Appendix I: What is liquefied petroleum gas? Source: Origin Energy, http://www.originenergy.com.au/2363/What-is-LPG

Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is a different chemical compound to natural gas even though both are hydrocarbons. LPG consists of propane and/or butane. Propane (C3H8) contains three carbon atoms and eight hydrogen atoms. Butane (C4H10) contains four carbon atoms and 10 hydrogen atoms. By comparison, methane is a much lighter gas than propane or butane, containing one carbon atom and four hydrogen atoms.

Although gaseous under normal atmospheric conditions, LPG (propane) is stored under modest pressures in liquid form. In this way, it can be transported and stored in a concentrated form to provide a source of high-energy fuel.

Other characteristics of LPG include: A high heating value (ie, calorific value) A virtual absence of sulphur, leading to cleaner burning A consistent quality ensuring reliability, particularly in applications such as

gas engines. Examples of specialist applications include forklifts and burners on boilers. LPG is also the perfect choice for cooking, heating and hot water in the home.

LPG is produced during the oil refining process or extracted during the natural gas production process. Because of its high calorific value, it is ideally suited for use in industrial, commercial, agricultural, horticultural and residential applications for heating, lighting, powering vehicles, metal cutting and in cogeneration.

For homes and businesses that are not connected to the natural gas underground mains network, LPG is a cost-effective alternative energy source because it is easy to transport and store.

Figure 26: Chemical structure of LPG

Source: Auto.howstuffworks.com, Maybank Kim Eng



Appendix II: What is bunker fuel? Source: Kittiware, http://www.kittiwake.com/fuel_terminology

There are two basic types of marine fuels – distillate and residual. A third type is a mixture of these two, commonly called "intermediate". Distillate fuel is composed of petroleum fractions of crude oil that are separated in a refinery by a boiling or “distillation” process. Residual fuel or “residuum” is the fraction that did not boil, sometimes referred to as tar or petroleum pitch.

Fuel for marine use in engines and boilers has the following types and grades: Distillate DMX, DMA, DMB, DMC Gas Oil or Marine Gas Oil Intermediate IFO 180 380 Marine Diesel Fuel or Intermediate Fuel Oil (IFO) Residual RMA-RML Fuel Oil or Residual Fuel Oil

To communicate effectively in a speciality field like marine fuels, it is necessary to be clear on the bunker fuel terminology used in this industry. Distillate fuels are commonly called Gas Oil or Marine Gas Oil; residual fuels are called Marine Fuel Oil or Residual Fuel Oil; and intermediate types are called Marine Diesel Fuel or Intermediate Fuel Oil (IFO). While the term "diesel fuel" for land-based automobile and truck use is 100% distillate, in the marine industry Marine Diesel Fuel is the blend of distillate and residual oils (intermediate types). The 100% distillate type fuel in the marine industry is the Marine Gas Oil (implying that it was boiled into a gas and then condensed into a liquid).

One common theme is that the world of commercial marine fuel supply is totally separate from the world of recreational marine fuels. Diesel fuel for marine applications depends on three things: engine used, cost and availability. Commercial marine businesses have the higher volume and low-cost incentives to arrange deals with refiners to produce tailored marine fuels that are most cost effective for their engines. Commercial marine businesses arrange for fuels that involve less refining (leaving the sulphur in the fuel), and therefore lower cost than other diesel fuels, delivered by pipeline, boat or barge.

The product that is supplied as DMA is sometimes specially manufactured at local refineries with a higher sulphur content and lower price than land-based fuels rebranded for marine use. When that supply is short of demand, “Home-Heating Oil” (No. 2 fuel oil) is used, provided the flash is above 60° C, which it normally is. Similarly, DMC is sometimes supplied by local refineries from “cycle oil” (lower boiling point than No. 2 fuels), and is sometimes blended in the supply terminal from DMA and residual fuel oils. DMA is the common fuel for tugboats, fishing boats, crew boats, drilling rigs and ferry boats. Ocean-going ships that take residual fuel oil bunkers also take distillate fuels for use in auxiliary engines and sometimes for use in port. The common fuels are DMC, IFO-180 and IFO-380, depending on the specific engines in service. DMB is infrequently specified, and is not available in all ports. Where it is not available, DMA is supplied, sometimes in a barge that has transported DMC or IFO (hence, a “dirty” cargo hold that would contaminate DMA).

In contrast to commercial marine businesses, recreational boat owners have no volume leverage and less cost-reduction incentives to arrange for special fuels. With the large overlap in boiling range with other distillate fuels, the sources of recreational marine fuels are often land-based fuels that can meet or exceed all specifications of the marine fuel.



INCOME STATEMENT BALANCE SHEET FYE Dec (HKDm) 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F

FYE Dec (HKDm) 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Revenue 12,456 18,531 24,201 28,869 Fixed Assets 1,363 1,421 1,692 1,859 EBITDA 750 1,064 1,335 1,682 Other LT Assets 1,134 1,085 1,041 999 Depreciation & Amortisation 121 149 168 183 Cash/ST Investments 5,420 5,234 6,583 7,567 Operating Profit (EBIT) 628 915 1,167 1,499 Other Current Assets 4,436 5,493 6,421 7,583 Interest (Exp)/Inc (191) (162) (211) (245) Total Assets 12,353 13,218 15,707 17,966 Associates 0 0 0 0 One-offs 9 14 0 0 ST Debt 5,912 6,600 7,956 8,700 Pre-Tax Profit 446 767 956 1,254 Other Current Liabilities 3,524 2,322 2,691 3,205 Tax (18) (46) (57) (75) LT Debt 187 187 187 187 Minority Interest 2 (0) 0 0 Other LT Liabilities 146 146 146 146 Net Profit 427 721 898 1,179 Minority Interest 17 17 17 17 Recurring Net Profit 427 721 898 1,179 Shareholders' Equity 2,568 3,947 4,710 5,712 Total Liabilities-Capital 12,353 13,218 15,707 17,966 Revenue Growth (%) 23% 49% 31% 19% EBITDA Growth (%) 260% 42% 26% 26% Share Capital (m) 842 1,607 1,607 1,607 EBIT Growth (%) 329% 46% 28% 28% Gross Debt/(Cash) 6,099 6,787 8,143 8,887 Net Profit Growth (%) 39% 69% 25% 31% Net Debt/(Cash) 679 1,552 1,560 1,320 Recurring Net Profit Growth (%) 39% 69% 25% 31% Working Capital 420 1,805 2,355 3,245 Tax Rate % 4.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% CASH FLOW RATES & RATIOS FYE Dec (HKDm) 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F FYE Dec 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Profit before taxation 446 767 956 1,254

EBITDA Margin (%) 6.0% 5.7% 5.5% 5.8% Depreciation 750 1,064 1,335 1,682 Op. Profit Margin (%) 5.0% 4.9% 4.8% 5.2% Net interest receipts/(payments) (191) (162) (211) (245) Net Profit Margin (%) 3.4% 3.9% 3.7% 4.1% Working capital change 1,311 (758) 637 1,151 ROE (%) 16.6% 18.3% 19.1% 20.6% Cash tax paid (30) (108) (135) (177) ROA (%) 3.5% 5.5% 5.7% 6.6% Others (incl'd exceptional items) 0 0 0 0 Net Margin Ex. El (%) 3.5% 4.0% 3.7% 4.1% Cash flow from operations 1,767 97 1,690 2,500 Dividend Cover (x) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Capex (231) (200) (495) (384) Interest Cover (x) 3.9 6.6 6.3 6.9 Disposal/(purchase) (538) 0 0 0 Asset Turnover (x) 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 Others 659 795 0 0 Asset/Debt (x) 66.2 70.9 84.2 96.3 Cash flow from investing (111) 595 (495) (384) Debtors Turn (days) 95.5 40.0 35.0 35.0 Debt raised/(repaid) (1,261) (1,236) 0 0 Creditors Turn (days) 97.0 119.0 91.4 83.5 Equity raised/(repaid) 0 756 0 0 Inventory Turn (days) 26.2 35.3 29.8 26.7 Dividends (paid) (30) (108) (135) (177) Net Gearing % 26.4 39.3 33.1 23.1 Others (40) 904 0 0 Debt/ EBITDA (x) 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.8 Cash flow from financing (1,331) 315 (135) (177) Debt/ Market Cap (x) 0.8 1.8 1.8 1.5 Change in cash 325 1,008 1,060 1,939 PER SHARE DATA FYE Dec (HKD) 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F EPS 0.33 0.52 0.65 0.85 CFPS 1.35 0.07 1.24 1.83 BVPS 1.97 2.85 3.39 4.11 EBITDA/share 0.56 1.10 1.39 1.73 DPS 0.04 0.08 0.10 0.13 Source: Company data, Maybank Kim Eng



RESEARCH OFFICES REGIONAL

WONG Chew Hann, CA Regional Head, Institutional Research (603) 2297 8686 [email protected]

Alexander GARTHOFF Institutional Product Manager (852) 2268 0638 [email protected]

ONG Seng Yeow Regional Head, Retail Research (65) 6432 1453 [email protected]

ECONOMICS Suhaimi ILIAS Chief Economist Singapore | Malaysia (603) 2297 8682 [email protected]

Luz LORENZO Philippines (63) 2 849 8836 [email protected]

Tim LEELAHAPHAN Thailand (662) 658 1420 [email protected]

JUNIMAN Chief Economist, BII Indonesia (62) 21 29228888 ext 29682 [email protected]

Josua PARDEDE Economist / Industry Analyst, BII Indonesia (62) 21 29228888 ext 29695 [email protected]

MALAYSIA WONG CHEW HANN, CA Head of Research (603) 2297 8686 [email protected] Strategy DESMOND CH’NG, ACA (603) 2297 8680 [email protected] Banking & Finance LIAW THONG JUNG (603) 2297 8688 [email protected] Oil & Gas – Regional Shipping ONG CHEE TING, CA (603) 2297 8678 [email protected] Plantations – Regional MOHSHIN AZIZ (603) 2297 8692 [email protected] Aviation – Regional Petrochem YIN SHAO YANG, CPA (603) 2297 8916 [email protected] Gaming – Regional Media TAN CHI WEI, CFA (603) 2297 8690 [email protected] Power Telcos WONG WEI SUM, CFA (603) 2297 8679 [email protected] Property & REITs LEE YEN LING (603) 2297 8691 [email protected] Building Materials Glove producers

CHAI LI SHIN (603) 2297 8684 [email protected] Plantation Construction & Infrastructure KANG CHUN EE (603) 2297 8675 [email protected] Consumer IVAN YAP (603) 2297 8612 [email protected] Automotive LEE Cheng Hooi, Regional Chartist (603) 2297 8694 [email protected] Tee Sze Chiah, Head of Retail Research (603) 2297 6858 [email protected]

HONG KONG / CHINA Howard WONG Head of Research (852) 2268 0648 [email protected] Oil & Gas - Regional Alexander LATZER (852) 2268 0647 [email protected] Metals & Mining - Regional Jacqueline KO, CFA (852) 2268 0633 [email protected] Consumer Karen KWAN (852) 2268 0640 [email protected] HK & China Property & REITs Philip TSE, CFA FRM (852) 2268 0643 [email protected] HK & China Property & REITs Simon QIAN, CFA (852) 2268 0634 [email protected] Telecom & Internet Steven CHAN (852) 2268 0645 [email protected] Banking & Financials Warren LAU (852) 2268 0644 [email protected] Technology – Regional

INDIA Jigar SHAH Head of Research (91) 22 6623 2601 [email protected] Oil & Gas Automobile Cement Anubhav GUPTA (91) 22 6623 2605 [email protected] Metal & Mining Capital goods Property Urmil SHAH (91) 22 6623 2606 [email protected] Technology Media

SINGAPORE NG Wee Siang Head of Research (65) 6432 1467 [email protected] Banking & Finance Gregory YAP (65) 6432 1450 [email protected] SMID Caps – Regional Technology & Manufacturing Telcos Wilson LIEW (65) 6432 1454 [email protected] Property Developers ONG Kian Lin (65) 6432 1470 [email protected] S-REITs James KOH (65) 6432 1431 [email protected] Consumer - Regional YEAK Chee Keong, CFA (65) 6432 1460 [email protected] Offshore & Marine Derrick HENG (65) 6432 1446 [email protected] Transport (Land, Shipping & Aviation) Wei Bin (65) 6432 1455 [email protected] Commodity Logistics S-chips Alison FOK (65) 6432 1447 [email protected] Small & Mid Caps Construction John CHEONG (65) 6432 1461 [email protected] Small & Mid Caps Healthcare

INDONESIA Lucky ARIESANDI, CFA (62) 21 2557 1127 [email protected] Base metals Mining Oil & Gas Wholesale Pandu ANUGRAH (62) 21 2557 1137 [email protected] Automotive Heavy equipment Plantation Toll road Rahmi MARINA (62) 21 2557 1128 [email protected] Banking Multifinance Adi N. WICAKSONO (62) 21 2557 1128 [email protected] Generalist Anthony YUNUS (62) 21 2557 1139 [email protected] Cement Infrastructure Property

PHILIPPINES Luz LORENZO Head of Research (63) 2 849 8836 [email protected] Strategy Laura DY-LIACCO (63) 2 849 8840 [email protected] Utilities Conglomerates Telcos Lovell SARREAL (63) 2 849 8841 [email protected] Consumer Media Cement Rommel RODRIGO (63) 2 849 8839 [email protected] Conglomerates Property Ports/ Logistics Gaming Katherine TAN (63) 2 849 8843 [email protected] Banks Construction Ramon ADVIENTO (63) 2 849 8845 [email protected] Mining

THAILAND Sukit UDOMSIRIKUL Head of Research (66) 2658 6300 ext 5090 [email protected]

Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399 [email protected] Consumer/ Big Caps

Mayuree CHOWVIKRAN (66) 2658 6300 ext 1440 [email protected] Strategy Padon Vannarat (66) 2658 6300 ext 1450 [email protected] Strategy Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1470 [email protected] Auto Conmat Contractor Steel Suttatip PEERASUB (66) 2658 6300 ext 1430 [email protected] Media Commerce Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI (66) 2658 6300 ext 1400 [email protected] Energy Petrochem Termporn TANTIVIVAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1520 [email protected] Property Woraphon WIROONSRI (66) 2658 6300 ext 1560 [email protected] Banking & Finance Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG (66) 2658 6300 ext 1404 [email protected] Transportation Small cap. Chatchai JINDARAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1401 [email protected] Electronics

VIETNAM Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8081 [email protected] Food and Beverage Oil and Gas Hang Vu (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8087 [email protected] Banking Trinh Thi Ngoc Diep (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8242 [email protected] Technology Utilities Construction Dang Thi Kim Thoa (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8083 [email protected] Consumer Nguyen Trung Hoa (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8088 [email protected] Steel Sugar Resources



APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES DISCLAIMERS This research report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that values of such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from the relevant jurisdiction’s stock exchange in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors’ returns may be less than the original sum invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, its subsidiary and affiliates (collectively, “MKE”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by MKE and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, MKE and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees (collectively, “Representatives”) shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice. This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward-looking statements. MKE expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. MKE and its officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, from time to time participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other investments related thereto. In addition, it may make markets in the securities mentioned in the material presented in this report. MKE may, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the information presented herein, or the research or analysis on which they are based, before the material is published. One or more directors, officers and/or employees of MKE may be a director of the issuers of the securities mentioned in this report. This report is prepared for the use of MKE’s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of MKE and MKE and its Representatives accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply based on geographical location of the person or entity receiving this report. Malaysia Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in the form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis. Singapore

This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein may be subject to change. Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. (“Maybank KERPL”) in Singapore has no obligation to update such information for any recipient. For distribution in Singapore, recipients of this report are to contact Maybank KERPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. If the recipient of this report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act), Maybank KERPL shall be legally liable for the contents of this report, with such liability being limited to the extent (if any) as permitted by law. Thailand The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey may be changed after that date. Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (“MBKET”) does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result. Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of MBKET. MBKET accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. US

This research report prepared by MKE is distributed in the United States (“US”) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc (“Maybank KESUSA”), a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Maybank KESUSA in the US shall be borne by Maybank KESUSA. All resulting transactions by a US person or entity should be effected through a registered broker-dealer in the US. This report is not directed at you if MKE is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Maybank KESUSA is permitted to provide research material concerning investments to you under relevant legislation and regulations. UK This document is being distributed by Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd (“Maybank KESL”) which is authorized and regulated, by the Financial Services Authority and is for Informational Purposes only. This document is not intended for distribution to anyone defined as a Retail Client under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 within the UK. Any inclusion of a third party link is for the recipients convenience only, and that the firm does not take any responsibility for its comments or accuracy, and that access to such links is at the individuals own risk. Nothing in this report should be considered as constituting legal, accounting or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.



DISCLOSURES Legal Entities Disclosures Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets and Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by Maybank KERPL (Co. Reg No 197201256N) which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Indonesia: PT Kim Eng Securities (“PTKES”) (Reg. No. KEP-251/PM/1992) is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM LK. Thailand: MBKET (Reg. No.0107545000314) is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Philippines: Maybank ATRKES (Reg. No.01-2004-00019) is a member of the Philippines Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Vietnam: Maybank Kim Eng Securities JSC (License Number: 71/UBCK-GP) is licensed under the State Securities Commission of Vietnam. Hong Kong: KESHK (Central Entity No AAD284) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. India: Kim Eng Securities India Private Limited (“KESI”) is a participant of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (Reg No: INF/INB 231452435) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (Reg. No. INF/INB 011452431) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. KESI is also registered with SEBI as Category 1 Merchant Banker (Reg. No. INM 000011708) US: Maybank KESUSA is a member of/ and is authorized and regulated by the FINRA – Broker ID 27861. UK: Maybank KESL (Reg No 2377538) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

Disclosure of Interest Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Singapore: As of 21 November 2013, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report. Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. As of 21 November 2013, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment and may receive compensation for the services provided from the companies covered in this report.

OTHERS Analyst Certification of Independence The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.

Reminder Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase.

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE. Definition of Ratings Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system: BUY Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) HOLD Return is expected to be between - 10% to +10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) SELL Return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)

Applicability of Ratings The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.

Some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they appear): Adex = Advertising Expenditure FCF = Free Cashflow PE = Price Earnings BV = Book Value FV = Fair Value PEG = PE Ratio To Growth CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate FY = Financial Year PER = PE Ratio Capex = Capital Expenditure FYE = Financial Year End QoQ = Quarter-On-Quarter CY = Calendar Year MoM = Month-On-Month ROA = Return On Asset DCF = Discounted Cashflow NAV = Net Asset Value ROE = Return On Equity DPS = Dividend Per Share

NTA = Net Tangible Asset ROSF = Return On Shareholders’ Funds EBIT = Earnings Before Interest And Tax P = Price WACC = Weighted Average Cost Of Capital EBITDA = EBIT, Depreciation And Amortisation P.A. = Per Annum YoY = Year-On-Year EPS = Earnings Per Share PAT = Profit After Tax YTD = Year-To-Date EV = Enterprise Value PBT = Profit Before Tax



Malaysia Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad) 33rd Floor, Menara Maybank, 100 Jalan Tun Perak, 50050 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2059 1888; Fax: (603) 2078 4194

Singapore Maybank Kim Eng Securities Pte Ltd Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd 9 Temasek Boulevard #39-00 Suntec Tower 2 Singapore 038989 Tel: (65) 6336 9090 Fax: (65) 6339 6003

London Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd 6/F, 20 St. Dunstan’s Hill London EC3R 8HY, UK Tel: (44) 20 7621 9298 Dealers’ Tel: (44) 20 7626 2828 Fax: (44) 20 7283 6674

New York Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc 777 Third Avenue, 21st Floor New York, NY 10017, U.S.A. Tel: (212) 688 8886 Fax: (212) 688 3500

Stockbroking Business: Level 8, Tower C, Dataran Maybank, No.1, Jalan Maarof 59000 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2297 8888 Fax: (603) 2282 5136

Hong Kong Kim Eng Securities (HK) Ltd Level 30, Three Pacific Place, 1 Queen’s Road East, Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2268 0800 Fax: (852) 2877 0104

Indonesia PT Maybank Kim Eng Securities Plaza Bapindo Citibank Tower 17th Floor Jl Jend. Sudirman Kav. 54-55 Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

Tel: (62) 21 2557 1188 Fax: (62) 21 2557 1189

India Kim Eng Securities India Pvt Ltd 2nd Floor, The International 16, Maharishi Karve Road, Churchgate Station, Mumbai City - 400 020, India Tel: (91).22.6623.2600 Fax: (91).22.6623.2604

Philippines Maybank ATR Kim Eng Securities Inc. 17/F, Tower One & Exchange Plaza Ayala Triangle, Ayala Avenue Makati City, Philippines 1200 Tel: (63) 2 849 8888 Fax: (63) 2 848 5738

Thailand Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited 999/9 The Offices at Central World, 20th - 21st Floor, Rama 1 Road Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330, Thailand Tel: (66) 2 658 6817 (sales) Tel: (66) 2 658 6801 (research)

Vietnam In association with Maybank Kim Eng Securities JSC 1st Floor, 255 Tran Hung Dao St. District 1 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Tel : (84) 844 555 888 Fax : (84) 838 38 66 39

Saudi Arabia In association with Anfaal Capital Villa 47, Tujjar Jeddah Prince Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Street P.O. Box 126575 Jeddah 21352 Tel: (966) 2 6068686 Fax: (966) 26068787

South Asia Sales Trading Kevin FOY [email protected] Tel: (65) 6336-5157 US Toll Free: 1-866-406-7447

North Asia Sales Trading Alex TSUN [email protected] Tel: (852) 2268 0228 US Toll Free: 1 877 837 7635

www.maybank-ke.com | www.maybank-keresearch.com | www.kimeng.com.hk

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