New Opportunities In The Transparent Conductor Market

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NanoMarkets

New Opportunities in the Transparent Conductor Market:

A Webinar for the FlexTech AllianceJune 16, 2011

© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC


NanoMarkets

About NanoMarkets, LC

• NanoMarkets provides industry analysis of emerging markets in energy and electronics enabled by new developments in materials science. We have been providing insight into products and strategies in transparent conductor markets for almost six years

• Our work includes market, company, and technology analysis, market forecasting and due diligence. NanoMarkets provides regular reports on transparent conductor markets with forecasts and breakouts by application and type of materials used

• Offerings include reports, custom consulting, seminars/webinars and in-house training. NanoMarkets is based in the U.S., with extensive contacts all over the world. See www.nanomarkets.net for details on our reports


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http://www.nanomarkets.net/


NanoMarkets

Recent Related Reports from NanoMarkets

• The Business Case for Indium Tin Oxide and Alternative Transparent Conductors

• Transparent Conductors for Displays: Market Opportunities 2011

• Transparent Conductors in Photovoltaics: Market Opportunities 2011

• Transparent Conductor Markets in the OLED Industry 2011 and Beyond

• Transparent Conductor Markets 2010: ITO and the Alternatives

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NanoMarkets

Plan of Our Webinar

• ITO under pressure: NanoMarkets’ TC forecasts

• Applications yet to come: TCs beyond displays

• Realistic expectations for ITO alternatives

• ITO on top: Just how dominant is ITO and why?

• Case history: PV-- an industry that has moved beyond ITO

• ITO alternatives: who supplies them, who uses them and why

• How to sell ITO alternatives

• Does material cost (i.e., the price of Indium) matter?

• A summing up

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NanoMarkets © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC

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NanoMarkets © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC

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NanoMarkets

ITO on Top

• ITO is clearly the market leader among transparent conductors for PV/displays

– 84 percent of coated substrate area for PV/displays

– 98 percent of material revenues

• Use is by far dominated by the display industry

– 93 percent of ITO is used for flat-panel displays

• This is despite ITO’s many negatives

– Cost and susceptibility to the indium price

– Lack of flexibility


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NanoMarkets

Why ITO is Still Tops

• In most current applications, ITO has best combination of transparency and conductivity. (But needs of large, flexible, and low-cost panels may trump this)

• Has yet to be bested by an alternative. Only other TCOs (so far) have sustained volume and supply chain

• Old ways die hard

– ITO integrated into fab processes

– Display industry is highly sensitive to disruptions in manufacturing

– Substantial manufacturing investments in the display industry are optimized for ITO-coated substrates

• That’s why suppliers of ITO replacements are looking to new applications . . . And they are finding them!


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NanoMarkets

PV: An Industry that has Moved beyond ITO

• More cost pressures than in the display industry

• a-Si PV is split between ITO, FTO, and AZO

• CdTe PV (First Solar) uses FTO

– Ease of application directly onto glass for transparent base electrode

• CIGS PV: Most use AZO

– Transparent top electrode well-suited to AZO


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ITO20%

Other TCOs80%

2015

© NanoMarkets, LC

ITO30%

Other TCOs70%

2012

ITO37%

Other TCOs63%

2009

TCO Penetration in TFPV, Square Meters Basis


NanoMarkets

ITO alternatives: Who Supplies and Who Uses

Alternative Companies and Markets Comments

Other TCOs PV + OLEDs (Fraunhofer IPMS) “ITO light”! No sector leadership

Conductive polymers

Fujitsu and Kent Display using. Agfa and Heraeus leaders

Low performance, but could nanostructures change that?

ITO inks Has been tried by Henkel, Ulvac, KETI and especially Sumitomo

Low performance. Gone out of fashion?

Nanosilver Cambrios, Cima NanoTech, Carestream, and the others

Current wave of interest, but concernsabout processing costs and metals

Copper NanoForge Unproven

Carbon nanotubes Formerly Eikos and Unidym Now C3Nano, Canatu, Toray, etc.

More going on behind the scenes but separation problems

Graphene Graphene ink from Vorbeck Not ready for prime time

Metal grids PolyIC, CDT, Suzhou Nanogrid Great for large area panels


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NanoMarkets

How to sell ITO alternatives

• The most important thing: Matching conductivity and transparency to market niches

• Some stuff really doesn’t matter that much

– Tinges

– ITO old wives’ tales

• Processing costs

– Vital issue but hard to turn into a competitive advantage for materials makers.

– Opportunity for equipment companies and OEMs

• Indium costs


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NanoMarkets

Indium Costs – The Truth is Out There

• The China factor: Indium, nationalism and the need to develop domestic high-tech markets

• Does the price of Indium matter?– Yes. Most of the value of ITO

– No. Who cares in an $2,000 TV

– No. Indium is a tiny part of the total cost of ITO

• In need of a more careful economic analysis– Indium price matters because people say its does!

– But ITO costs (not indium prices) is what really counts and ITO cost models suggest it can be very important in BOMs

– No one has performed a dynamic analysis of the impact of indium prices on ITO. So we don’t know the real answer (No good data on ITO prices)

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NanoMarkets

A Summing Up

• ITO still outperforms alternatives and is grandfathered into the LCD process. Little potential for alternatives as yet.

• Alternatives already better than ITO for large, flexible and low-cost panels. Potential in touch panels, but addressable market not huge

• Number of alternatives increasing: TCOs, conductive polymers (nanostructured?), carbon nanotubes, graphene, silver nanomaterials, copper, metal grids

• Indium pricing does matter, but how much? We don’t know.

• When does the LCD market give in?


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NanoMarkets

Contact Information

• NanoMarkets website: www.NanoMarkets.net

• NanoMarkets on Twitter: www.twitter.com/nanomarkets

• NanoMarkets Email: [email protected]

• NanoMarkets Telephone: 804-360-2967

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New Opportunities In The Transparent Conductor Market

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