Lancaster Centre for Forecasting Workshop

Tel: +44 (0) 1524 593867| Fax: +44 (0) 1524 844885 | email: info@forecasting-centre.com

New Product Forecasting

America Square Conference Centre EC3 | LONDON April 22, 2016 13:00-17:15

with presentations from:

Practitioners’ Workshop | New Product Forecasting

About the workshop

Welcome to the half-day workshop on New Product Forecasting. Understanding and forecasting for new products remains a challenge. However, dedicated modelling techniques are developing rapidly. Our Workshop brings together well-known practitioners and academics to present, hear about and discuss new insights and approaches to support new product forecasting. Drawing on their expertise in data-driven strategies, including predictive analytics, participants will share the newest, impactful, and innovative ideas, experiences and tools with business attendees. Our Workshop will provide forecasting professionals with the oppor-tunity to turn sophisticated forecasting models into real-life, useful insights delivering more effective forecasts. There will be industry talks from LEGO and Nielsen, who will share their insights and explain how they have over-come some of the challenges encountered in new product forecasting. The Workshop will conclude with a panel discussion, allowing all delegates to contribute to the debate and to pose questions to the panel. We look forward to welcoming you in London.

Introduction to the Workshop John Boylan, Director (Lancaster Centre for Forecasting)

Making the best use of management judgement in new product forecasting

Paul Goodwin, Professor Emeritus (University of Bath) Management judgment can play an important role in new product forecasting because there is usually an absence of historic sales data. However, judgment can be subject to a number of political, motivational and psychological biases that can re-duce forecasting accuracy. This talk will demonstrate these biases and then discuss how they can be overcome. It will look at methods that have proved to be effective in drawing on the combined expertise of groups of managers and also show how structured techniques can be used to enhance the quality of judgmental forecasts. These will include methods for identifying analogous existing products that may have sales patterns similar to those of a new product that has yet be launched.

New product demand planning at The LEGO Group: Methods, Process & Challenges

Daniel Barrett, Senior Manager, Demand Planning (Lego)

This talk will begin with an introduction to the LEGO group and a high-level overview of the demand planning process at the company. LEGO frequently introduces new product ranges to reflect the interests of our customers, and forecasting demand for new launches is of critical importance. The methods used for forecasting new products will be explored, together with an assessment of the challenges LEGO faces in this area. The talk will conclude with a discussion of the general issues raised in the presentation.

Roundtable Discussion The discussion provides opportunity for a wider debate on the topic of New Product Forecasting. Questions may be raised that go beyond the scope of the talks and members of the audience are encouraged to share their own experiences and give their own views on meeting the challenges of forecasting and demand planning for new products.

Programme 13:05-13:15

13:15-14:00

14:00-14:45

16:30-17:10

17:15 onwards

coffee break

15:45-16:30

Networking Reception Location: venue close by, to be confirmed

14:45-15:00

15:00-15:45 Forecasting approach at Nielsen Innovation Practice

Sandra Maor, Director, Client Consulting (Nielsen Innovation Practice)

This talk will be a look into the black box of the BASES forecasting approach. Nielsen’s Innovation Practice has developed a complex mathematical model, empirically-based, to forecast all types of product innovations. This model combines consumer response to the planned innovation, the manufacturer’s planned marketing support, as well as Nielsen’s mar-ket knowledge. Not just the quantity of support is accounted for, but also its quality (not all Gross Rating Points and not all distribution points are created equal for example). Timing of the support is also part of the equation (e.g. front-loaded or back-loaded, timed in synergy with other types of support or not, in- or out-of-season). This level of detail allows us to predict trial and repeat volume components, on top of the absolute sales. How incremental or cannibalistic the sales will be is also covered, accounting for the level of support on the pre-existing portfolio. The model is constantly refined and adapted to the evolving markets via validations which monitor accuracy and identify areas of improvement.

Predictive analytics for automatic new product forecasting

Sven Crone, Co-Director (Lancaster Centre for Forecasting)

New product forecasting is a major challenge for demand and supply planners, both in estimating future demand and setting adequate inventory levels. With no historic demand data, traditional statistical forecasting methods cannot be employed and new product forecasting is often left to the judgment of human experts. But with fashion industries and electronics introducing thousands of new products multiple times per year, analytical methods to automatically forecast new products are needed. This presentation will showcase a new approach from Predictive Analytics and Data Mining, which uses time series clustering and similarity search for analytical, data driven and fully automatic new product fore-casting by analogies. Designed to construct launch profiles from past product launches data, it utilises increasing sources of information including product features before launch, recalibrated by using initial orders during launch and early sales observations post-launch. The method provides forecasts for new products and empirical quantiles which are used to derive safety stocks. Its promising performance is illustrated in an empirical evaluation using real data from a case study in the fashion and textile industry.

Tel: +44 (0) 1524 593867| Fax: +44 (0) 1524 844885 | email: info@forecasting-centre.com

Practitioners’ Workshop | New Product Forecasting

Location

Workshop location Aldgate & Bishopsgate Suite, America Square Conference Centre (17 Crosswall, London, EC3N 2LB)

Easily accessible, just a few minutes’ walk from London Underground (stations: Tower Gateway, Tower Hill, Aldgate) and Fenchurch Street Rail Station

Detailed directions are available here.

Interested?

John Boylan Lancaster Centre for Forecasting John joined Lancaster as Professor of Business Analytics early in 2015, but has been active in forecasting re-search and practice for over 25 years. He has a background in the aerospace and automotive industries. He has published extensively on forecasting topics and his name is associated with one of the standard bench-mark methods for forecasting intermittent demand patterns. He has worked with software companies on the implementation of new forecasting methods and has given many talks to industry practitioners on this subject.

Paul Goodwin Professor Emeritus University of Bath Paul Goodwin is a well-known author and speaker, specialising in management judgment. He is the author of two books: “Forecasting with Judgement” and “Decision Analysis for Management Judgement”, as well as numerous research papers.

Daniel Barrett Senior Manager, Demand Planning LEGO Group Daniel Barrett has ten years’ experience in demand planning and forecasting at LEGO, having previously worked in parts controlling at Daewoo Electronics. He is currently the Head of the Demand Planning Centre of Excellence at LEGO.

Sandra Maor Director, Forecasting Nielsen Innovation Practice Sandra Maor is Director of the European Forecasting team and has spent over ten years working together with FMCG clients, forecasting their new product launches.

Sven Crone Lancaster Centre for Forecasting Dr Sven Crone specialises in forecasting and data mining for logistics and supply chain management. He is a highly experienced speaker at both academic and practitioner conferences. His research interests relate to computational intelligence and neural networks.

Speakers

If you are interested in events like this one, please register to our mailing list through our website: www.forecasting-centre.com

Tel: +44 (0) 1524 593867| Fax: +44 (0) 1524 844885 | email: info@forecasting-centre.com

Practitioners’ Workshop | New Product Forecasting

LCF is part of the renowned Lancaster University Management School (LUMS), one of the UK's top busi-ness schools with an outstanding research and teaching record. LUMS is among the world's most highly ranked business schools, consistently listed in the UK's top five for its academic degrees, and one of the few business schools in the world to hold triple accreditation (AACSB, EQUIS and AMBA). Lancaster University Management School won the inaugural Business School of the Year award in the Times Higher Education awards 2012.

In teaching at LUMS, members of LCF play a vital role in educating students and executives in Operational Research and Operations Management in forecasting methods, software packages and processes, and in supervising Master's and PhD projects in forecasting with industry every summer. As a result, engaging with LCF gives companies access to some of the leading researchers in the UK, cost effi-cient projects with MSc and PhD students, and access to recruit some of the best analytical talent in the UK—educated and expert in forecasting, data mining and predictive analytics.

The Lancaster Centre for Forecasting (LCF) leads the field in applied forecasting research, consultancy and training in Europe. A not-for-profit-organisation, LCF engages with companies in projects to facilitate knowledge-transfer between academia and business, and to establish and disseminate best practices.

LCF offers over 20 years of forecasting expertise. Founded in 1990 by Prof. Robert Fildes, past president of the International Institute of Forecasting (IIF), co-founder of the International Journal of Forecasting and the Journal of Forecasting, it was the first centre to focus on forecasting research and practice. Today, with 20 members (5 senior members supported by post-doctorate research associates, software developers and PhD students), LCF hosts the largest think-tank dedicated to forecasting world-wide.

The Centre offers services on the complete range of predictive analytics, from demand planning to market modelling, from statistical methods to artificial intelligence, and from public sector to corporate solutions in telecommunications, fast moving consumer goods, insurances and manufacturing. Members regularly support companies in their use of forecasting methods, auditing forecasting processes (including performance measurement and organisational setup), and selecting and tuning forecasting software systems.

In addition, the Centre offers a range of training courses in forecasting and demand planning, introducing the fundamentals of forecasting methods (e.g. on Exponential Smoothing, Causal Regression) or advanced topics (e.g. on ARIMA models, Neural Networks). To better address a company’s particular situation and learning needs, LCF also offers tailor made courses held in-house. Contact us to find the most suitable form of training to tackle your current organisational challenges.

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About us

Tel: +44 (0) 1524 593867| Fax: +44 (0) 1524 844885 | email: info@forecasting-centre.com