New stage of Climate Change Research ーHow to prepare the future Climate Change?

Akimasa Sumi Vice-president

National Institute of Environmental Studies

Contents

1. 3.11 Earthquake and Tsunami-event 2. Similarity between the Tsunami

events and the Global Warming 3. What should we do? 4. Today’s seminar

The Earthquake at 3.11,2011 (Obs.)

Tsunami(1)

GPS wave gauge

Tsunami(2)

Hazards at Fukushima Nuclear Plant

Impacts to Science Community

People claimed that reliable information was not provided. Impacts of radiation to human health

Relation between Science and the Society

Responsibility of Scientists How to treat an extreme event with few

probability? How to face to uncertainty?

Possibility of the Big Tsunami was pointed out

Possibility of this Tsunami event was pointed out by geologists(Jyogan Earthquake.July 869

Many uncertaintity when it happens within a few years!

Action was postponed by TEPCO management!

Lessons I have learned!

When the theory suggests a event,it will happen anyhow, although timing is difficult to know.

We have to pay more attention to a severe extreme event with few possibility.

Similarity between the global warming and the Tsunami event

It is presented by science that such events will happen!

There are uncertainty It is important for us to keep saying! It is wise to prepare the future by

trusting what science suggests!

At the same time, we know difficulty

Economical constrain or budget constrain is so severe.

Time-scale is critical! Management board at a company tends

to think in shorter time scale. Now is time to take actions!

Then, how to do ?

Pay attention to a spectrum of issues We have to stand on the same ground Sustainability

What is “Sustainable society”?

There are many definitions.

Increase of people’s happiness

IR3S,UT has proposed “integration between Low carbon society, Resource-circulating society and Nature-harmonious society (and Security)”.

14

Research area toward sustainability

15

Nature-harmonious society

Climate change and ecosystems

Climate change and energy/resources

Ecosystems and environmental load

A Sustainable Society Resource-circulating society

Low Carbon Society

Indices: Energy production (fossil fuels, renewable), GHG emissions

Indices: Quantities of natural resources exploited, Recycling rates, amount of waste

Indices: Land use, Changes in land use rates, Ecosystem functions

Integrated and Very Long-term Scenario for Sustainable Society

Climate change, energy security

Resource scarcity, mass-production

mass-consumption, waste problems

Malfunction of ecosystem services, Loss of biodiversity

Agreements between different stake-holders

Common Perception about the future Knowledge Commons or Data Commons Verification of Actions

Perception of the Global is critical

The world is divided, but the Earth is common to us.

Now, we can see the Earth in TV every day！

The knowledge given by modeling and observation is “Information Commons” for human beings to the future society

Knowledge Commons or Data Commons

Accumulation of knowledge obtained by human-kind

Observation and prediction Knowledge about impacts and actions Open access and be shared by the

world IPCC is one example Big data or networking and cloud

computing

Observation from “Space”

Important component of Information Commons for Sustainability Society

Link with Mass Media－＞Direct Input to the public

Deforestationーーfish-bone Ozone-hole

Ozone Hole

This position is a position of the God.

Next, we need to behave in a manner deserving of that position.

Climate Observation International collaboration

GOS(Global Observing System) GCOS（Global Climate Observing

System) GOOS（Global Ocean Observing System) GTOS(Global Terrestrial Observing

System) GEOSS(Global Earth Observing System

of Systems)

TAO-TRITON Array

アルゴフロートのデータ詳細については、

Argo Project

Prediction is also!

Seamless prediction system From weeks to decadals

予測には、幅がある！

信頼度は？

Verification of Actions!

Many proposal of actions in mitigation and adaptation!

Financial resources are limited Effect and efficiency should be

monitored and validated

Obs. Monitoring

Prediction

Impact Assessment

Actions

Verification

Yasuoka(2012)

Today’s Topics

Atmosphere Water Land Prediction of Climate Change and Its

impacts to our society