Eurostat

Walter J. Radermacher Chief Statistician of the EU

NTTS 2013 – Brussels, 5-7 March 2013 Opening address, 5 March 2013

New Techniques and Technologies for Statistics

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Need for research in official statistics?

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• Increasing emphasis on evidence-based policymaking • New sources of evidence (big data) • Theories, frameworks and tools for evidence-based

policymaking is still “work in progress” • Need at policymaker level: e.g. ”beyond GDP” indicators • Need upstream: e.g. methods for integrating big data into

official statistics in a sound way

Study on the need for research in Official Statistics published in 2012 by Eurostat: http://www.cros-portal.eu/content/analysis-future-research-needs-official-statistics-0

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Overview • Challenges and opportunities:

• Zero growth • New technologies • Big Data and Open Data • Indicators

• Instruments • EMOS • ESSnets (in the ESS.VIP programme) • The CROS portal • Horizon 2020

• NTTS 2013

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Challenges and opportunities

requiring research in official statistics

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Zero-growth scenario: to do more with less • Alternative sources to surveys

• registers • administrative data • data in the public domain

• Use modelling • Small Area Estimation • Imputation

• Increase efficiency • Standardisation • Common tools across domains – and across Europe • The ESS.VIP programme

• Respondent burden is also a limited resource!

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The ESS.VIP programme Aims

• realising economies of scale and productivity gains through sharing information, services and costs;

• at developing a common ESS infrastructure and appropriate legal framework and new administrative mechanisms that will allow for sharing of information, services and costs among ESS partners.

Components 1. Building up common infrastructure for sharing information and

services; 2. Piloting the sharing of information, services and costs in selected

statistical domains; 3. Developing frameworks and administrative mechanisms for

sharing information, services and costs.

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ESS.VIP programme – the “to-be-state”: Where do we want to be in 10 years?

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New technologies

Data capture: • Travel surveys by means of GPS • Internet panels • Online census • Smartphones • Handheld devices

Dissemination: • Smartphones – again! • Visualisation (HTML5, Geographical Information Systems)

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The data deluge challenge:

Three broad areas for experimentation:

• Combining Big data with official statistics. • Replacing official statistics by Big data. • Filling new data gaps, i.e. developing new “Big data – based”

measurements to address emerging phenomena (not known in advance […])

Big data and its Potential Use by the Statistical Community. HLG working paper 2013/6

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…we need to learn how surveys can be designed to incorporate transaction data continuously produced by the Internet and other systems in useful ways […] the biggest payoff will lie in new combinations of designed data and organic data, not in one type alone. Robert M. Groves (2011), Three eras of Survey Research, Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 75, No. 5, 2011, pp. 861–871.

(“big data” or “organic data”)

Do Big data render surveys obsolete?

• A huge untapped potential – but we need methods for integrating big data into official statistics in a sound way

• Otherwise, representativity and precision may end up in the back seat – and the “evidence” presented may mislead policymakers

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...a field of Sentiment Analysis has sprung up in the past decade to address the question What do people feel about a certain topic? [...] The Global Pulse project of the United Nations makes use of sentiment analysis among the population to predict unemployment... Jaap Bloem, Menno van Doorn, Sander Duivestein, Thomas van Manen and Erik van Ommeren (2012), Big Social - Predicting behavior with Big Data, Vint research report 2 of 4

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“Why LFS when there are social media?”

Are administrative registers an intermediate level?

• Far smaller than ”big data”, but: • More comprehensive coverage than ”big data” • More structured than ”big data”

• Larger than survey data, but:

• Not always designed with statistics in mind

• Data warehousing technology needed for effectively integrate administrative data and survey data

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Free dissemination of EU statistics

• On 1 October 2004 Eurostat made all its (non-confidential) data available free of charge on its website

• “…downloading and reproduction of Eurostat data/documents for personal use or for further non-commercial or commercial dissemination are authorised provided appropriate acknowledgement is given to Eurostat as the source...” http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/about_eurostat/policies/copyright_licence_policy

• Eurostat data linked to e.g. by • the Open Knowledge Foundation • LATC (7th Research Framework Programme)

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Open data

• Official statistics free of charge a good example

• Some of the ”big data” are also open data (and may be used in official statistics), other ”big data” are proprietary

• Statistical Disclosure Control expertise is needed to guarantee that “big data” and “open data” are combined in such a way that the privacy of individual citizens and enterprises is protected.

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Indicators: GDP – and beyond

• Improving the quality of the GDP estimate

• Indicators going beyond the traditional GDP

• Sound statistical methods needed for new indicators – and for assessing their precision

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Statistical techniques and computing technologies have also developed beyond recognition since the inception of national accounts and GDP. […] There are no insuperable technical obstacles to developing the quality and scope of our indicators even further so that policy decisions can progressively be based on a more integrated, balanced and timely view of social, economic and environmental facts.

GDP and beyond – Measuring progress in a changing world; communication COM(2009) 433 from the Commission

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European instruments

facilitating research and education

in official statistics

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EMOS – investing in people

• The European Master in Official Statistics (EMOS) is:

• project aimed at developing a programme for Training and Education in Official Statistics

• certified training in methodologies, statistical surveys, statistical production, analysis and statistical law

• offered by a network of National Statistical Institutes and universities

• The first EMOS courses may be offered at the end of 2014;

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The ESSnet projects • Funded by the European Commission (Eurostat)

• In an ESSnet project, National Statistical Institutes collaborating on European solutions to common problems

• Dissemination of ESSnet project results to non-participating ESS members a core principle

• The new ESSnet programme has recently been reoriented to: • Emphasis on “top-down”/vision implementation ESSnet projects,

embedded in the ESS.VIP programme

• Ascertaining the sustainability of ESSnet project results through Centres of Competences

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The CROS portal

• Funded by the European Commission (Eurostat)

• An important collaboration instrument

• A dissemination channel for ESSnet projects

• CROS also serves the Official Statistics research and methodology community at large (>1500 registered users) • A large CROS community for Seasonal Adjustment

• If researchers express an interest, and are prepared to take the lead Eurostat may set up new CROS communities to facilitate international collaboration on a topic

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EU support to research

Main channel for support in European statistics: Research Framework Programmes

• FP5 (DACSEIS, EURAREA, EUREDIT, …)

• FP6 (ESS, SHARE, …)

• FP7 (BLUE-ETS, DwB, e-Frame, InGRID, …)

• Various FP7 research projects are represented at NTTS 2013

and at the satellite events

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Horizon 2020 • Next research framework programme (2014-2020)

• Work programmes covering 2 years each (2014-2015)

• Statistics is not a policy area of its own – but supports a variety of policy areas

• Opportunities for research related to official statistics hard to discern

• State of play:

• Parliament and Council negotiations on EU budget 2014-20 (including overall budget for Horizon 2020)

• 1 January 2014: Horizon 2020 starts; launch of first calls http://ec.europa.eu/research/horizon2020/

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Session 12A on Horizon 2020

• Objective • New networks formed (may become project consortia) • Ideas discussed (may become project proposals) • Researchers in official statistics prepared once the calls for

proposals are issued

• Format • Speed-dating event - networking IRL (in real life) • 14 early-stage project ideas will be presented (4 minutes/each) • Discussion between presenter and participants at the

simultaneous cocktail

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NTTS - Conferences on New Techniques and Technologies for Statistics

The meeting place for research in official statistics

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NTTS 2013 • 380 registered participants • Gathering key actors in research on official statistics • Large number of submissions

• Many tough choices for the Scientific Committee • An intensive programme; 37 sessions with around 150

different oral and poster presentations

• A huge collective intellectual effort (well over 1000 pages in the proceedings!)

• Possible special issue of JOS • All full papers presented here are eligible for submission • The majority of the guest editorial team is from the

NTTS 2013 Scientific Committee

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Keynote speakers at NTTS 2013 • Opening session:

• Walter Radermacher (Chief Statistician of the European Union) • Robert-Jan Smits (Research on Official Statistics in Horizon 2020) • Robert M. Groves (Official Statistics and Big Data) • Sander Duivestein (Reboot 2020)

• Keynotes throughout the conference:

• Enrico Giovannini (Statistics 2.0: a new perspective for official statistics) • Nigel Shadbolt (Open Data: New Opportunities and New Challenges) • JNK Rao (Small Area Estimation: Methods, Applications and New Developments) • Eric Graf (Variance estimation by linearization for indicators of poverty and social exclusion)

• Closing session:

• Anne Glover (Chief Scientific Adviser to the President of the European Commission) • Denise Lievesley (Head of the School of Social Science & Public Policy at King’s college) • Daniel Defays (Director a.i. for corporate statistical and IT services, Eurostat)

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Satellite events on 4 and 8 March • European FP7 and COST research projects • Data without Boundaries

• To support equal and easy access to official microdata for the European Research Area

• BLUE-Enterprise and Trade Statistics • Identifying concrete options to provide high quality and robust

statistical business information for better policy making as well as for socio-economic research.

• Survey Harmonisation with New Technologies Improvement (COST/Shanti) • Guidelines for harmonising national travel surveys across Europe.

• 120 registered participants • Special sessions during the main conference as well

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Make use of the conference format!

• Much information could be gathered online

• Webstreaming may eventually render physical meetings obsolete

• Personal meetings still have a value

• NTTS 2013 offers you the opportunity to network – and create or expand your research consortia

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Thank you for your attention!

Walter.radermacher@ec.europa.eu http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

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W. J. Radermacher