New York City: New York City: The Rockaways The Rockaways Is New York City prepared to deal with the Is New York City prepared to deal with the consequences of Sea-Level Rise in the consequences of Sea-Level Rise in the Rockaways? Rockaways? Robert Tracey and Marquise McGraw Robert Tracey and Marquise McGraw Public Policy Analysts, Bronx H.S. of Public Policy Analysts, Bronx H.S. of Science Science Mr. Mitch Fox, Instructor/Mentor Mr. Mitch Fox, Instructor/Mentor Dr. Vivien Gornitz, NASA GISS, Science Advisor Dr. Vivien Gornitz, NASA GISS, Science Advisor Dr. Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA GISS, Science Advisor Dr. Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA GISS, Science Advisor
Transcript
New York City: New York City: The RockawaysThe Rockaways
Is New York City prepared to deal with the Is New York City prepared to deal with the consequences of Sea-Level Rise in the consequences of Sea-Level Rise in the
Rockaways?Rockaways?
Robert Tracey and Marquise McGrawRobert Tracey and Marquise McGrawPublic Policy Analysts, Bronx H.S. of Science Public Policy Analysts, Bronx H.S. of Science
Mr. Mitch Fox, Instructor/MentorMr. Mitch Fox, Instructor/MentorDr. Vivien Gornitz, NASA GISS, Science AdvisorDr. Vivien Gornitz, NASA GISS, Science Advisor
Dr. Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA GISS, Science AdvisorDr. Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA GISS, Science Advisor
Our Region of Study: The RockawaysOur Region of Study: The Rockaways• Mean elevation: 5.5 feet above sea level. (Rosenzweig et al, 2001)Mean elevation: 5.5 feet above sea level. (Rosenzweig et al, 2001)
• An established residential, high-density community, mixed An established residential, high-density community, mixed socioeconomic levels socioeconomic levels
• Rockaway Beach and Jacob Riis Park generates revenue annually for Rockaway Beach and Jacob Riis Park generates revenue annually for the city in tolls and retail activities along the beach.the city in tolls and retail activities along the beach.
• Served by only one major elevated subway (the ‘A’ line and its shuttle Served by only one major elevated subway (the ‘A’ line and its shuttle ‘S’) and by two low-lying bridges, the Marine Parkway Bridge and the ‘S’) and by two low-lying bridges, the Marine Parkway Bridge and the Cross-Bay Memorial Bridge.Cross-Bay Memorial Bridge.
Source: 2000 Maps a la Carte, Inc
The Jamaica Bay Region
Sea Level Rise: A Global ConcernSea Level Rise: A Global Concern• Mean sea level has risen globally by 25 cm (1-2.5 mm/yr) on Mean sea level has risen globally by 25 cm (1-2.5 mm/yr) on
average over the last century. (IPCC, 2001).average over the last century. (IPCC, 2001).• Global warming is also occurring, causing temperatures to Global warming is also occurring, causing temperatures to
• Global warming is exacerbating sea level rise, due to the thermal Global warming is exacerbating sea level rise, due to the thermal expansion of the water which results from temperature change. expansion of the water which results from temperature change. Based on IPCC estimates, sea level could rise by another 50 cm Based on IPCC estimates, sea level could rise by another 50 cm (5 mm/yr) by 2100.(5 mm/yr) by 2100.
• Increased sea levels will vastly affect coastal regions such as the Increased sea levels will vastly affect coastal regions such as the Rockaways, comprising 25% of the United States’ land area but Rockaways, comprising 25% of the United States’ land area but housing over 65% of North America’s population (IPCC, 2001).housing over 65% of North America’s population (IPCC, 2001).
• Increased sea levels will lead to increased frequency of severe Increased sea levels will lead to increased frequency of severe floods.floods.
Source: Marquise McGraw, Bronx H.S. of Science
Data provided by: Dr. V. Gornitz, NASA GISS
Temperature vs. Sea Level Changey = 46.782x + 4384.7
Coastal Flooding Coastal Flooding and Storm and Storm SurgeSurge
• The primary producer of damage from tropical and The primary producer of damage from tropical and extratropical storms is the storm surge, which can extratropical storms is the storm surge, which can result in severeresult in severe coastal flooding coastal flooding (Lutgens, 1998)(Lutgens, 1998)
• The magnitude of the flooding depends on the The magnitude of the flooding depends on the intensity of the storm, how the storm makes intensity of the storm, how the storm makes landfall, high tide, phase of the moon, and the landfall, high tide, phase of the moon, and the steepness of the continental shelf where the storm steepness of the continental shelf where the storm hits. (Lutgens, 1998)hits. (Lutgens, 1998)
• Strong winds and torrential rains only add to the Strong winds and torrential rains only add to the damage of a given storm.damage of a given storm.
Source: Lutgens and Tarbuck, The Atmosphere (1998)
Future Storm TrendsFuture Storm Trends• Storm surge: May increase up to 13.5 feet over next Storm surge: May increase up to 13.5 feet over next
century as a result of sea level change. (Neumann, century as a result of sea level change. (Neumann, 2000)2000)
• More “100- year floods” can be expected. (Rosenzweig, More “100- year floods” can be expected. (Rosenzweig, 2001)2001)
• Nor’Easters: Decrease in number of strong storms, Nor’Easters: Decrease in number of strong storms, increase in number of weaker ones. (Rosenzweig, increase in number of weaker ones. (Rosenzweig, 2001)2001)
• Hurricanes: Overall increase in potential hurricane Hurricanes: Overall increase in potential hurricane intensity. (Rosenzweig, 2001)intensity. (Rosenzweig, 2001)
• Storm Tracks: Possibly more northerly storm tracks, Storm Tracks: Possibly more northerly storm tracks, much uncertainty though. (Neumann, 2000)much uncertainty though. (Neumann, 2000)
Source: Robert Tracey, Bronx High School of Science
Data provided by: Dr. V. Gornitz, NASA GISS
Trend of Sea Level Rise at Rockaway Beach
9.8
10.3
10.8
11.3
11.8
12.3
12.8
2020 2050 2080
Year
Floo
d Le
vel f
or 1
00-Y
ear F
lood
(Ft.
)
Current
CCGG
CCGS
HCGG
HCGS
Physical Impacts of Major Physical Impacts of Major Storms in the RockawaysStorms in the Rockaways
• Inevitable inundation to mass-transit (“A” line and Inevitable inundation to mass-transit (“A” line and LIRR); tracks run only 7 ft. above sea level.LIRR); tracks run only 7 ft. above sea level.
• Marine Parkway and Cross Bay Bridge would Marine Parkway and Cross Bay Bridge would experience serious flooding. Result: disruption of experience serious flooding. Result: disruption of commerce (e.g. food delivery), traffic backups.commerce (e.g. food delivery), traffic backups.
• Rockaway Beach - increase in shoreline erosion Rockaway Beach - increase in shoreline erosion from 1 meter in 2020, up to 4 meters in 2080.from 1 meter in 2020, up to 4 meters in 2080.
• Possibility that shoreline will become permanently Possibility that shoreline will become permanently inundated (i.e. no more beach).inundated (i.e. no more beach).
Economic Impacts of Major Economic Impacts of Major Storms in the RockawaysStorms in the Rockaways
• Loss of toll and mass transit revenues.Loss of toll and mass transit revenues.
• Severe reduction in value of real estate.Severe reduction in value of real estate.
• Costs of shoreline nourishment may increase if a Costs of shoreline nourishment may increase if a more cost-efficient sediment management plan is not more cost-efficient sediment management plan is not implemented soon (Neumann, 2000).implemented soon (Neumann, 2000).
• Loss of recreational value of the Rockaway Beach Loss of recreational value of the Rockaway Beach and Jacob Riis park, leading to lost revenues and a and Jacob Riis park, leading to lost revenues and a blow to the local economy.blow to the local economy.
• Loss of property inundated by rising waters.Loss of property inundated by rising waters.
Source: Original Photo by Marquise McGraw
John F. Kennedy International AirportView from Jamaica Bay
Source: Original Photo by Marquise McGraw
Channel BridgeView from “A” Subway Line
Cross Bay BridgeView from Beach 120th Street, the Rockaways(notice MTA New York City Transit “S” line bridge in the background)
Source: Original Photo by Marquise McGraw
“S” Line Bridge
Source: Original Photo by Marquise McGraw
Howard Beach Housing at RiskView from “A” Subway Line
“Scratchitti”
Source: Original Photo by Marquise McGraw
Far Rockaway Housing at Risk
Source: Original Photo by Marquise McGraw
Construction YardView from Broad Channel Station
Source: Original Photo by Marquise McGraw
Jamaica Bay MarshlandsView from “A” Subway Line
Comparison with Other Major EventsComparison with Other Major Events• The 1992 Nor’easter devastated Manhattan Island. The FDR The 1992 Nor’easter devastated Manhattan Island. The FDR
drive was flooded at 80th Street. The Hoboken PATH terminal drive was flooded at 80th Street. The Hoboken PATH terminal was completely inundated (Rosenzweig, 2001).was completely inundated (Rosenzweig, 2001).
• A 1950 Noreaster flooded the Lower East Side in Manhattan A 1950 Noreaster flooded the Lower East Side in Manhattan as well as LaGuardia Airport. (Fox M., 2002)as well as LaGuardia Airport. (Fox M., 2002)
• The NYC Subway System has been flooded twice in the past The NYC Subway System has been flooded twice in the past few years due to Hurricane Floyd and even a strong few years due to Hurricane Floyd and even a strong thunderstorm. (Fox M., 2002)thunderstorm. (Fox M., 2002)
• Because the Rockaways are on lower ground, the flooding Because the Rockaways are on lower ground, the flooding would have even more severe consequences.would have even more severe consequences.
Reliability of 2000 ProjectionsReliability of 2000 Projections• For the time being, they are the best guess of future For the time being, they are the best guess of future
storm and sea behavior available to us.storm and sea behavior available to us.
• Further testing is necessary to validate and correct or Further testing is necessary to validate and correct or update future trends.update future trends.
• More research is needed into future storm activity, More research is needed into future storm activity, specifically storm tracks and intensities.specifically storm tracks and intensities.
• Better models should be developed to produce Better models should be developed to produce scenarios that we can place more statistical scenarios that we can place more statistical confidence in.confidence in.
Possible SolutionsPossible Solutions• New York City should implement a thorough New York City should implement a thorough
evacuation procedure through Nassau County.evacuation procedure through Nassau County.
• Levies or dikes should be built to protect main roads Levies or dikes should be built to protect main roads and mass transit systems.and mass transit systems.
• Shore-side housing should be discouraged or banned Shore-side housing should be discouraged or banned entirely. Or, reinforcements should be built to entirely. Or, reinforcements should be built to strengthen existing housing at risk.strengthen existing housing at risk.
• A tunnel, if properly constructed on high enough A tunnel, if properly constructed on high enough ground, could connect the Rockaways with the ground, could connect the Rockaways with the mainland, eliminating the need for bridges.mainland, eliminating the need for bridges.
Ways to Get Government MovingWays to Get Government Moving
• Provide realistic and accurate estimates of Provide realistic and accurate estimates of costs. Analyze the costs and risks of modifying costs. Analyze the costs and risks of modifying structures in preparation for flooding versus structures in preparation for flooding versus the costs of damage from flooding.the costs of damage from flooding.
• Convince policymakers that insurance rates Convince policymakers that insurance rates will rise with increased risk of flooding, which will rise with increased risk of flooding, which will be bad for the economy of the Rockaways.will be bad for the economy of the Rockaways.
• Lutgens and Tarbuck. Lutgens and Tarbuck. The AtmosphereThe Atmosphere. Prentice Hall, 1998.. Prentice Hall, 1998.
• Manning, M and Nobre, C., eds., Manning, M and Nobre, C., eds., IPCC Technical Summary: Climate IPCC Technical Summary: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and VulnerabilityChange 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. 2002. Available . 2002. Available online: <http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/wg2TARtechsum.pdf>online: <http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/wg2TARtechsum.pdf>
• Neumann, James et.al, Neumann, James et.al, Sea Level Rise and Global Climate Change: A Sea Level Rise and Global Climate Change: A Review of Impacts to United States Coasts. Review of Impacts to United States Coasts. 2000. Available Online: 2000. Available Online: <http://www.pewclimate.org/projects/env_sealevel.cfm><http://www.pewclimate.org/projects/env_sealevel.cfm>
• Rosenzweig, Cynthia, and Solecki, William, eds. Rosenzweig, Cynthia, and Solecki, William, eds. Climate Change and A Climate Change and A Global City: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Global City: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and ChangeChange. Columbia Earth Institute, 2001. Columbia Earth Institute, 2001
• Titus, James G. et. al, Titus, James G. et. al, Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise: The Cost of Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise: The Cost of Holding Back The Sea.Holding Back The Sea. Available online: Available online: <http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/publications/impacts/sealevel/cost_of<http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/publications/impacts/sealevel/cost_of_holding.html>_holding.html>
