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New York Policy Forum Panel Transcript: "Hydrofracking in the Marcellus Shale: Poison or Panacea?"

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    New York Policy Forum

    Hydrofracking in the Marcellus Shale: Poison or Panacea

    October 6, 2011

    The Cornell Club

    New York City

    Albert F. Appleton, Cooper Union

    Dr. Terry Engelder, Penn State University

    Jonathan Cohen, New York Policy Forum

    John Giardino, New York Policy Forum

    Stuart Gruskin, Gruskin Gordon, LLP

    Jamie Kitman, Automobile Magazine

    Hon. Matthew T. Ryan, City of Binghamton

    Jonathan Cohen:

    Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for taking time away from your busy day at Occupy

    Wall Street to join us for our movement here at the Cornell Club. This is Occupy the

    Cornell Club. Were here to prove that there is such a thing as a free lunch. [Laughter] I

    guess its coming out of the kitchen now.

    On behalf of my partner John Giardino and our colleagues Tina Bonifacio and Aaron

    Izakowitz, let me welcome you to our discussion about the proposal to allow drilling for

    natural gas in New York State by a technique known by the rather unlovely name of

    hydrofracking - or the even less lovely fracking.

    We have some notable guests in the audience. I want to acknowledge Mayor Koch,

    [Applause] the kingmaker of the Congressional 9th District and the scourge of the state

    assembly and the legislature particularly on the redistricting issue. All power to you,

    Mayor Koch. You are an inspiration to us, and we thank you.

    Pete Grannis is here. The first deputy comptroller [Applause] for the State of New York

    and the former commissioner of the states Department of Environmental Conservation.

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    Once again, were indebted -- and happily so --to our friends and partners Ilan Lieman

    and Byron Speight. Theyre our design and media partners at IB Creative. They made this

    beautiful acrylic banner. They helped create our website. They do our video. If you like

    what theyve done for us, they can do it for you. [Laughter]

    I also want to thank George Arzt for providing counsel, which is always right on the

    money. And Ray Bunanno for his indispensible help in assembling this great panel.

    A number of people today have asked

    me what our purpose is; do we take a

    position on this issue? Let me try and

    describe briefly our aim. It is simply

    to bring interesting and lively policy

    discussions to a wider audience. Our

    format is structured discussion as opposed to debate or formal presentation. Our panels

    feature notable experts and moderators. We encourage questions from the audience.

    John Giardino will lead us in the Q&A session later today. I hope all of you will

    participate and are thinking of some great questions to ask this great panel.

    Now when it comes to the hydrofracking issue, it seems to me anyway, the competing

    interests are pretty clear. On the one hand, drilling for natural gas in New York State

    represents the opportunity to create tens of thousands of jobs, and literally billions of

    dollars in new economic activity. There are wonderful reports that are actually fairly easy

    to read on this topic. The DEC of the state has issued in its proposal some economic

    findings. The Manhattan Institute has a study that was issued in June, which as usual with

    the Manhattan Institute is quite clear, and good, and sensible. I urge you all to read it.

    Our format is structured discussion as opposed to debate

    or formal presentation. Our panels feature notable

    experts and moderators. We encourage questions from the

    audience.

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    In addition to the economic benefits that might accrue to our state, there are other

    important benefits. Natural gas is said to be cleaner than coal and oil and could serve as a

    transition to a broader use of cleaner fuels generally. Hydrofracking along with other

    energy technologies can help us, it is said, achieve energy independence from foreign

    suppliers. This is a worthy goal for the economy and for national security and, indeed,

    has been a national policy goal for 40 or 50 years and, apparently, is near at hand.

    On the other hand, hydrofracking poses some very serious risks. They are risks to the

    public water supply and risks to public

    health. Hydrofracking on a large scale

    will strain waste disposal systems in the

    state. It will place a burden on roadways

    and transportation infrastructure. Then

    there is the question of the relationship of

    private landowners, and drilling companies, and the leases that they sign together, and

    whether those leases are clear, and whether they are fair, and whether they are lawful.

    This is the issue before us, really, isnt it? This is the issue, not only for our panel, but for

    us in this room, and indeed, everybody in New York State. After all, we are the

    successors of generations that were not afraid or fearful of industrial processes. We are

    the successors of generations that built the Brooklyn Bridge, tunneled under the Hudson

    River, built a great harbor here in New York, dug the Erie Canal and harnessed the power

    of Niagara Falls. Is it really not within our power as a polity, as a citizenry and a people

    to figure out how to marshal an industrial process called hydrofracking; to draw this

    valuable resource from the ground beneath our very feet but do it in a safe manner in a

    way that respects peoples rights and is lawful?

    Maybe its not within our possibilities to do that. If thats the case, weve got a really

    interesting discussion ahead of us.

    Is it really not within our power as a polity, as a citizenr

    and a people to figure out how to marshal an industrial

    process called hydrofracking?

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    Well, youve heard a bit from me. But why dont we see what the experts have to say?

    Im going to go in alphabetical order.

    Al Appleton is an international expert in water resource and water utility management.

    Hes a lecturer at Cooper Union. He served as commissioner of the Department of

    Environmental Protection here in New York City; and also as the director of the New

    York City Water and Sewer Systems. Al is acknowledged as having developed and

    implemented groundbreaking innovations that saved New York City billions of dollars in

    protecting and perfecting its water supply. He holds degrees from Gonzaga University

    and Yale Law School.

    Dr. Terry Engelder isperhaps the leading authority on the Marcellus Shale. Hes a

    professor of Geosciences at Penn State University. He holds degrees from Penn State,

    Yale, Texas A&M, and other notable distinctions. Dr. Engelder also has served on the

    staffs of the US Geological Survey, at Texaco, and Columbia University. Hes written

    extensively about the Appalachian Region, and has worked internationally as a consultant

    on exploration and production issues for Saudi Aramco, Royal Dutch Shell and numerous

    other companies. Im very pleased to tell you that just yesterday Dr. Engelder was named

    one of the top global thinkers of 2011 by Foreign Policy Magazine, a very impressive,

    very prestigious acknowledgement of his work, some of which will be featured in a

    special issue of Foreign Policy in December.

    Stuart Gruskin is a partner in the consulting firm of Gruskin Gordon. From 2007 to 2010,

    Stu served as executive deputy commissioner of the New York State Department of

    Environmental Conservation. There, he oversaw the states environmental quality and

    natural resource policies and regulations including the moratorium on drilling in the

    Marcellus Shale in New York State. Stu also served as chair of the Board of Directors of

    the Environmental Facilities Corporation known as the EFC. Hes an expert in water

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    management and water issues in municipalities and localities throughout the state. Before

    joining state government, Stu had a 25-year legal and business career here in the city.

    Hes a graduate of the State University of New York at Albany, and of Albany Law

    School at Union College.

    Matthew T. Ryan is the mayor of Binghamton, New York. Binghamton, the seat of

    Broome County in New Yorks Southern Tier, is situated at the center of a prime drilling

    zone. Mayor Ryan hails from his city. He grew up there; went to high school there;

    graduated from Binghamton University where for many years he taught environmental

    law. He has a degree from CUNY Law School; and served for many years as the public

    defender first of Broome County and then of the city of Binghamton. Mayor Ryan was

    elected in 2005 and reelected in 2009.

    Our moderator today is Jamie Kitman. Jamie is the New York bureau chief at

    Automobile Magazine where hes been a long-time columnist. He is the automotive

    editor of GQ; a featured blogger on NPRs Car Talk; and a contributor to The Nation,

    The Washington Post, Harpers, Foreign Policy, Top Gear, CAR Magazine, and The New

    York Times. Jamie has won numerous awards, including the National Magazine Award

    for commentary and an IRE Award for investigative magazine reporting on the use of

    lead gasoline. Mr. Kitman is an avid car collector and a major carbon consumer. His

    carbon footprint, Im sure, rivals Al Gores, at least. He owns a fleet of very cool cars

    that are garaged across the Metro Region and possibly all over the world. He serves as a

    judge at numerous classic car shows. Given the evident internal conflict between Jamies

    dedication to cars and car culture and his obvious and very sincere commitment to social

    justice, Jamie seems like the ideal person to help us talk about balancing energy

    production, public safety, and environmental stewardship today.

    So, panelists, were thrilled to have you here and, guests, too. Jamie, youre in the

    drivers seat. Whenever youre ready, theres a green flag. Go to it. [Applause]

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    Does the water system become so

    polluted that taps produce flames?

    Jamie Kitman:

    Thanks, Jon, and everyone for helping to set this event up. It seems like its a really good

    time to start talking about this stuff. Maybe it would have been a good time to start

    talking about it sooner, but here we are.

    So, Im going to put my first question to you, Al Appleton. I recently saw the film

    Gasland and there are actually a couple of scenes where people turn on their faucets and

    their running water seems to light on fire when a match is held to them. I think a lot of

    people want to know, is this an inevitable result of fracking? Does the water system

    become so polluted that taps produce flames? Why is that?

    How is that? If this is an extreme example of what happens,

    what would be some less extreme but also serious results?

    In short, what do you see as the major threats that fracking

    poses to the public health and safety, and environment in New York?

    Albert Appleton:

    In the interest of disclosure, Im also in Gasland but Im not a flame. [Laughter] I think

    if you want to understand that scene, you need to understand the back story. The back

    story is that Josh and a number of other of his neighbors in Wayne and adjacent counties

    were approached by drilling representatives who basically promised them the world and

    that this stuff was totally harmless. Josh, who was deeply emotionally invested in land

    that his parents had pioneered in the 70s, decided to take a look for himself and see if that

    was true. Josh does not pretend that every farm adjacent to fracking is going to have

    water that goes on fire. The scenes of flaming taps were designed to do something much

    more specific; to establish that the claims of the industry that this was harmless, that

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    nothing but good and benign results would come from it, were simply not true; that they

    were PR and not reality and from then on we had to go forward.

    I want to take issue with the

    way the issue is presented by

    our gracious host. The

    suggestion that fracking has

    inherently good economic and

    even foreign policy objectives is one that actually, I hope we get a chance to explore a

    little more carefully. Thats kind of a classic 20th century spin on the issue: pollution

    versus progress. In the 21stCentury, what were trying to do is put the environment and

    the economy together in that awkward and clumsy word sustainability.Its from that

    context that I am going to be addressing many of the comments Im going to have on gas

    fracking.

    Gas fracking really raises three sets of issues. Assuming for a second its benefits were as

    presented. The first sets of issues are classic pollution issues: the discharge of fracking

    materials into waterways, the associated runoff and air pollution. Wyoming, where they

    do gas fracking, is actually in and out of ozone compliance, believe it or not, from gas

    fracking. So theres a whole set of gas fracking pollution issues that go beyond the kind

    of thing you saw from Josh. They go to the quality and integrity of the water systems.

    One of the things I dont like in the industry presentation on this is when they kind of talk

    about, Well, fracking fluid is less than 1% toxins. Well, thats true but most of the

    toxins in fracking fluid have toxicities expressed in parts per million, or in a few cases,

    even billions. So fracking fluid thats of 1% of these materials is a very toxic substance

    indeed.

    Gas fracking shale is essentially designed to open up fissures so the shale will flow into a

    collection lateral and can be taken to the surface. Now, the sand is the critical component

    What were trying to do is put the environment and the

    economy together in that awkward and clumsy word

    sustainability.

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    The biggest single thing that mostpeople worry about is pollution to

    surface water supplies.

    in doing this. Because driving the sand into the shale creates miniature fissures that

    enable people to collect the gas. As we all know, if you put sand in water, it just sinks to

    the bottom. There has to be some component in this mixture that keeps the sand in

    solution in terms of its specific gravity long enough for the sand to do its work and

    liberate the gas.

    Thats the reason, essentially, why this is a toxics issue. When fracking first developed

    100 years ago, it was essentially using water to stimulate the flows of worn out vertical

    wells. It is the need to keep the sand in the solution where it will do some good that is at

    the heart of the use of all of these toxic materials. Whether or not you could develop a

    green fracking material that had the same specific

    gravities and would do the same work, there are people

    who are trying to do that. So far, it does not seem to

    have had a lot of traction with the industry. This biggest

    single thing that most people worry about is pollution to surface water supplies.

    Now, most of what Josh showed in Gasland was rural farms that were close to fracking

    activity and had their well fields contaminated. These are generally, though not always,

    caused by poor well casing

    creation. That is poor concrete

    work, poor grounding, lack of

    quality control and then it goes

    through to the particular bottom.

    So that while this is an

    enormous concern if youre a rural or suburban person relying on well water, the longer

    range concern is what happens to surface water if these materials are discharged into

    watersheds and streams. There are many ways they can get into them. Lots of the

    fracking fluid comes back to the surface and somebodys got to put it someplace.

    The longer range concern is what happens to surface water

    if these materials are discharged into watersheds and

    streams.

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    Fracking materials can spill. Floods can overrun the lagoon, ponds, and areas that are not

    using enclosed areas. There are natural eruptions sometimes from deep underground that

    bring these materials to the surface. So there are many pathways in which these things

    can get into surface water. If they get in the surface water, the current filtration

    technologies we use to protect municipal water supplies will be largely ineffectual against

    them. These systems are designed to deal with microbes, bacteria, pathogens, and

    sediment.

    The sand or the medium probably takes some of the toxic materials out depending on

    their composition and a number of other things. But this will not give you the 100%

    reliability we expect from a safe drinking water system. If these materials get into the

    environment, whats going to happen is there may be some public health emergencies,

    but more likely, the various regulators will force municipalities like Binghamton to spend

    hundreds of millions, if not billions, of extra dollars on new filtration trains, as we call

    them in the water business, to take this material out of the public drinking water.

    I mentioned the problems with ozone. Will fracking fluid through any one of a number of

    mediums get into surface drinking water supplies? Then there is the question of what

    fracking does to the rural landscape.

    ost of us think that your grandfathers natural gas, as

    wed like to call it, was a very good idea. The industry

    kind of counts on this confusion.

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    It is the fear of these kinds of consequences being replicated in New York that has driven

    many of the community groups that have sprung up like mushrooms to oppose gas

    fracking. Now these groups have some trouble distinguishing opposing shale gas fracking

    from natural gas. Most of us think that your grandfathers natural gas, as we like to call it,

    was a very good idea. Its a byproduct of oil production or it comes from underground

    cavities so you basically just stick a straw in. The industry kind of counts on I dont know

    how many of you remember clean burning natural gas ads from the time we all grew up.

    The industry likes to put forward this clean burning natural gas as kind of its mantra. You

    have to understand that gas fracking means the clearing of tens of thousands of acres of

    land, stress on roads; new pipelines; compressor stations; storage facilities, and that these

    will tend to dramatically change the land use pattern of these rural areas.

    It is very hard, if not impossible, to run other economic activity in an area where there is

    an intense amount of gas fracking. There are numerous instances documented in

    Pennsylvania and elsewhere of farmers who can no longer sell their product because

    theyve been tainted by gas fracking.

    The question of property values is important: people who have sunk their savings into

    retirement homes, farmers who do not want to get under the gas fracking express train,

    but find that they can no longer get

    mortgages. The FHA actually has

    specific guidelines that say if you were

    within X distance of a gas well, you

    cannot get a mortgage. So, the impact

    on the landscape and the impact on the landscapes hydrological and natural resource-

    based industries is a very big thing. Lastly, we cannotand Im just going to mention

    this because its time for me to get off the podium for a second, except to acknowledge

    Mayor Koch. I think of him talking about the champagne of drinking water, even though

    Gas fracking is the mortal enemy of green energy.

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    we all love his redistricting initiative, too. We, as a country, have to make a choice about

    pursuing green energy. Gas fracking is the mortal enemy of green energy. We can come

    back to that later.

    Jamie Kitman:

    Terry Engelder, my understanding is that frackers are not required to disclose the

    chemicals that they often use in the process, but Im sure with your expertise youd be

    familiar with those. Could you just sort of share what are the chemicals most commonly

    used in fracking?

    Terry Engelder:

    If you want to see an industrial endeavor that has

    backfired nothing, at least in my lifetime, has

    backfired to the extent to which thats backfired. So,

    what the industry is doing right now is theyve formed

    a website called FracFocus. While this is not enforced

    by either state or federal law, a number of the

    operators have recognized the extent to which

    transparency is going to be incredibly important as we move forward. They have started

    posting on their website exactly what

    they use. I think in the State of

    Pennsylvania what you will eventually

    see is that there will be a listing of all

    chemistry of frack fluid, well by well

    by well, posted on the DEP websites so that if someone owns a farm in Bradford County

    and they know of a Chesapeake well thats next door, they can actually go onto the

    website and see exactly what was used in the well.

    The business of not sharing the

    knowledge of the chemistry of

    frack fluid, I think, was a

    tremendously poor choice on the

    part of industry.

    The State of Pennsylvania eventually will be listing all

    chemistry of frack fluid, well by well by well.

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    To answer the question What are the chemicals that are placed in the fluid? Basically

    there is a distribution by volume percent of the fluids that are addedthe additives to

    frack fluid. Youll see that its on the order of of 1%. Then, the various individual

    components are broken down, first of all, by the compound lard gum, for example, which

    Al has mentioned as the thickener, is the same as the stuff thats put in your toothpaste to

    thicken it, and cosmetics, ice cream, a number of other things. Of course, Al has already

    indicated the importance of that is to support the sand thats put into the water, so that on

    a vertical well or on a vertical fracture, the sand doesnt fall to the bottom of the fracture.

    There are fifteen different additives.

    Each has a function in order to enhance

    gas recovery. Youll recognize some of

    these: potassium chloride, for example.

    You all use sodium chloride on your

    potatoes and meat for example.

    Potassium is little different than sodium

    chloride. It is the sand itself that holds

    the fractures open.

    Now, one of the things that I will remind you is that underneath your kitchen sink, you

    have a set of chemicals that are not unlike the chemicals that are here. I will remind you

    also that these are highly toxic. If you were to take that jar of Mr. Clean, for example, and

    just chug it right down, I suspect you wouldnt survive if you did that. So we have to put

    a lot of this in perspective. It is true that these chemicals that are shipped to the frack sites

    in their concentrated forms would also have the same effect.

    The question really boils down to, I think, one that goes beyond fracking and that is our

    lifestyle. America uses about 100 quadrillion BTUs of energy a year. Natural gas

    America uses about 100 quadrillion BTUs of energy a

    ear. Natural gas accounts for 25% of that. Of that 25%,

    more than 50% is obtained by fracking. If we ban

    racking tomorrow, for six minutes of every hour we have

    to turn the lights out. We should be crystal clear about

    that.

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    accounts for 25% of that. Of that 25%, more than 50% is obtained by fracking. So you

    can think in terms of the total energy consumption of America, in terms of gas alone as

    being somewhere on the order of 12% of the entire portfolio. If we ban fracking

    tomorrow, for six minutes of every hour, we have to turn the lights out. We should be

    crystal clear about that.

    Jamie Kitman:

    Dr. Engelder, youre the geologist whos mapped the Marcellus Shale and studied its

    composition. You probably know more about it than anyone. Can you give us a two-

    minute primer on what the Marcellus Shale is and whats in it. I might hazard a guess, but

    tell us, in short, your thought about how safely that can be extracted.

    Terry Engelder:

    The question is: What is shale gas?

    Gas resides in the ground in what is called pore space. The thing that makes gas shale

    somewhat unique is the fact that the pore space, the little holes in the rock, are somewhat

    smaller than found in conventional reservoir sandstones. There are just an incredibly

    large number of these little porespore spaces in the rock so that the problem, of course,

    is that with these pore spaces, the size they are, the rock is very impermeable. Thats the

    reason that fracking is so important.

    Jamie Kitman:

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    Dr. Engelder, let me just ask you just very quickly. Can you describe the scope of the

    Marcellus Shale just in a few sentences?

    Terry Engelder:

    The Marcellus is found under New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Maryland, and West

    Virginia.

    Jamie Kitman:

    How does that compare to other plots that have been discovered?

    Terry Engelder:

    It turns out that the Marcellus alone amounts to the second largest gas field in the world.

    The largest being the South Pars field in the Persian Gulf between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

    Jamie Kitman:

    Stuart Grusnik, you were New York States deputy commissioner of the Department of

    Environmental Conservation, and youre responsible, in part, for the current moratorium

    on hydrofracking. Youre out of government now, in a successful consulting business. I

    The Marcellus amounts to the second largest gas field in

    the world after the South Pars field in the Persian Gulf

    between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

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    wonder if you could tell us what you were thinking at the time, how you felt about that in

    retrospect, and how you feel now. Was the moratorium a good idea? What did it achieve?

    Do you support the call to lift it, at least partially, now, and if so, why?

    Stuart Gruskin:

    I think what I need to do is really explain the context in which the decisions were made in

    2008. Its been called a moratorium popularly, but there really isnt a moratorium. What

    happened is that in 2008, DEC began to get some permit applications for high-volume

    hydrofracking using horizontal drilling. There had been, for quite a while, hydraulic

    fracturing in New York and also for quite a while, horizontal drilling. They havent been

    used together. Because it was going to be

    done at a much greater scale, there were

    going to be environmental impacts that had

    not previously been considered. So we had

    to make a choice at that time: We could

    start issuing permits in 2008 for this and

    require the operators to do a site-specific environmental impact studies to supplement the

    generic study that was already out there; or we could do what we opted to do, which is to

    say that were going to supplement the existing generic study which applies to all gas

    drilling to account for what we felt were going to be some significant and potentially very

    harmful environmental impacts.

    As I sit here today, three and a half years later, I think this is probably the only place in

    the US where we can have a discussion about whether or not fracking is good or bad

    where fracking has not actually already been taking place at high volume.

    So theres no misunderstanding, this is still a work in process. In 2008 we initiated a

    formal administrative process. We wanted to make sure that there was a comprehensive,

    From a policy standpoint, New York States position wa

    to think first and drill later. really does separate us

    rom just about every other jurisdiction.

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    Industry has done a terrible job of

    competing with the groups that are

    against fracking in capturing the

    hearts and minds of people in New

    York.

    substantive and objective review. I personally conducted the public hearings on the first

    draft. Ive travelled around the state speaking on this. I do

    think that the public debate has grown extraordinarily

    divisive and philosophical and really has lost sight of the

    objective aspect of this.

    We have a situation where we know there could be some

    very serious adverse impacts from hydrofracking. The fact

    that there can be those impacts doesnt mean that there will be those impacts. The

    regulators responsibility is to do an objective and comprehensive review to assess the

    impacts and figure out Can they be avoided? Can they be mitigated? What are the

    alternatives? So that was sort of the first goal.

    Industry has done a terrible job of competing with the groups that are against fracking in

    capturing the hearts and minds of people in New York, at least, so far as the media

    coverage is concerned, and at least when I go to dinner parties and people yell at me

    about this.

    From DECs perspective, it was an objective study to try to figure out Can this be done

    without the horrific environmental consequences that are real because you just have to

    look at some other states and see what potentially has happened? We also had the goal

    of engaging with the public and we embarked on a very transparent process. We went out

    and we did public scoping. We got some 3,000 odd comments. The first round of

    hearings on the first draft of the environmental impact statement generated over 13,000

    comments. Now, a lot of them were postcards saying, Frackings terrible. Dont do it.

    Others were saying, Frackings great. Youve got to do it. But there were many, many

    various substantive comments and they came from across the board. The environmental

    groups did a great job putting in substantive comments, as did industry, as did the

    landowners, as did the public officials: the mayors, the county executives, and so on. We

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    wanted to engage with the public because at the end of this process, we knew that we

    would need to have public confidence. You cant have a successful regulatory regime

    without public confidence.

    Jamie Kitman:

    How is that going, the public confidence part?

    Stuart Gruskin:

    Well, it depends on where youre sitting. In New York City, I would say, leaving out this

    crowd, but in many places in New York City, you would have out of 100 people in a

    room, 99% of them would be opposed to it because they think that fracking is going to

    contaminate the drinking water, which is one of the myths thats perpetuated about this.

    Because while there are serious issues with New York Drinking water, potentially,

    contamination is not actually the issue. However, if youre sitting in Binghamton and

    having the discussion, its going to be more of a mixed response. We often forget,

    because these are the voices that arent heard as loudly as the others.

    So if youre in a room where there are people who might be entering into these leases,

    theyre the ones who are saying, I value my land more than anything else. I need my

    water to be clean. I need the air to be clean. I need my land to be healthy so I can grow

    things. So my crops will grow. So my animals will thrive. So I dont want an

    environmental contamination. But I also want to benefit if I can do it safely.

    Jamie Kitman:

    Speaking of Binghamton, we have the mayor of Binghamton here, Matt Ryan. Mayor

    Ryan, Broome County is potentially hydrofracking central once the moratorium is lifted.

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    There have been promises of jobs and revenue in terms of new economic activity, and

    obviously that has an appeal to you and your constituents. Then again there are the

    health and environmental risks. You have spent much time studying the law of the

    environment. How do you come down on these issues?

    Mayor Matthew Ryan:

    First of all, thank you for having this forum. I think its a great opportunity for people to

    get together and understand a very complex issue facing our state.

    I live in a city that used to have a population of 88,000. Its down to less than 50,000. We

    lost most of IBM, which was started in Binghamton. Stimulation for space travel was

    developed in our city; weve lost that and other industries just like other Northeast cities.

    You would think that I would be clamoring for these kinds of promises of 50,000 jobs

    and $2 billion of revenue. I studied environmental law for quite a while and Ive taught it

    for ten years. I have to come down on the side of that we are woefully unprepared for this

    intrusion into our environment.

    First of all, I would question the promise of jobs. Certainly, theres good economic

    impact if youre just talking about dollars only. But the costs have not been quantified. I

    know the Manhattan Institute tried to do that. Ive talked to a lot of economists who

    disagree with their theory and how they did that study. [Hydrofracking] will cost so much

    in residual costs for our roads, for instance.

    You would think that I would be clamoring for these kinds

    of promises of 50,000 jobs and $2 billion of revenue we

    are woefully unprepared for this intrusion into our

    environment.

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    Were going down this fossil fuelpath and if we dont stop it soon, ifwe dont stop it as a planet, were

    in real trouble.

    Yet theres $160 billion from other industries upstate that can be achieved in the next

    twenty years: fishing, hunting, the wineries versus $16 billion for hydrofracking over

    the next 6 years. The reality is the tradeoffs. How much of that $160 billion is going to be

    influenced by this $16 billion? I would suggest a lot.

    A lot of people upstate are clamoring for jobs,but I would suggest theres other ways to

    do it. Lets consider the economic development councils that Gov. Cuomo started. We

    just put out a proposal that that will create thousands of jobs to retrofit buildings which

    will save so much energy and which will clean up our

    environment. Were going down this fossil fuel path and if

    we dontstop it soon, if we dont stop it as a planet, were

    in real trouble. Just to say that because theres all this

    wealth under our feet, well, if there were big streams of

    coal [in] upstate New York, do you think wed be talking

    about tearing up our beautiful countryside?

    Jamie Kitman:

    Possibly.

    Let me ask you just a specific question. Broome County, we know that hydrofracking

    uses enormous amounts of water. And with that theres the responsibility on the part of

    the drillers and the municipalities and the county and state to process all that water, to

    clean it up. What obligations do you know about that will be created for the county, and

    the city, and what is their ability to deal with that?

    There is no scheme in place to deal with fracking water.

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    All the problems are on the surfac

    and all the problems are with the

    chemicals.

    Mayor Ryan:

    Well right now, if you look at whats coming so far, there is no scheme in place to deal

    with fracking water. Theres no place othermaybe one in Buffalo that can process the

    fluids that come back up. Nobody is certified to do that. That means trucking many, many

    miles. Thats one problem. Then there is the fuel needed for trucks and the traffic

    congestion they will cause. And then there is the problem of sufficient transportation

    infrastructure. Right now its crumbling. There arejust so many downsides to this.

    But Al brought up a good point. We in the Chesapeake River BasinThe Susquehanna

    River is the longest un-navigable river in the world; it goes all the way from

    Cooperstown to the Chesapeake Bay. Every time that something goes wrong with the

    water, we are forced by the federal to pay to clean it up. Were going to have to find $60

    million (so far) to upgrade the main treatment plant. This is

    going to be an economic calamity.

    Theres another problem. Already the DEC has allowed trucks

    to spread brine on our roads. They have a special permit for this. The trees are dying

    [because they're] spreading this stuff on the roads. This is dangerous stuff that nobody

    knows what to do with. And it's part of the cost. I agree with the professor, that fracking

    itself way down below the water table is not that serious of an environmental problem.

    All the problems are on the surface and all the problems are with the chemicals. By the

    way, it may have gum in it, but I won't be brushing my teeth with that stuff anytime soon.

    Jamie Kitman:

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    Okay. Let me get back to Al Appleton. I'm gathering from your drift that you're not

    excited about the moratorium being lifted. I'm wondering, is there any circumstance

    where you could see fracking being an acceptable alternative and even if not, what would

    you like to see happen, what would be the best case scenario and the worst case scenario

    where it becomes prevalent?

    Albert Appleton:

    I do not support a ban on all fracking. Although if you want to ask me to predict the

    future, well, this is an industry that hasbeen an advocates dream. I've consulted in six

    continents and I've had somewhat of a reputation for negotiating with difficult people

    starting with the farmers and I've never seen an industry that's so tone deaf. They are

    absolutely clueless and the fact that they're now beginning to change that is only because

    having had their head put into a meat grinder and learning that it's costing them an awful

    lot of money, they're beginning to try to change.

    Here's what I believe should happen. Jumping to the chase, I believe that all significant

    surface watersheds, not just New York City and Syracuse but places like Binghamton,

    places like Elmira, places like the Finger Lakes, should be off limits to fracking not only

    because of the pollution but because of the landscape disruption. Its going to impose

    huge costs on the local areas.

    I do not support a ban on all fracking.

    Lets also protect the watersheds and other significant

    landscapes such as, for example, the vineyards of theFinger Lakes.

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    New York State regulations do recognize the principle of keeping significant landscapes

    such as state forests off the map for fracking.

    But lets also protect the watersheds and other significant landscapes such as, for

    example, the vineyards of the Finger Lakes. It's very difficult for me to see in any way

    that fracking can be made compatible with them because of the combination of pollution

    and landscape damage.

    There are other areas where there's strong local support for fracking, but I dont want to

    suggest that every landowner is for fracking. My files are full of information thats also

    available on the web featuring hundreds of stories that will tear at your heart. Stories of

    landowners who have had their livelihood destroyed, their way of life compromised

    because of fracking. It's civil war in some of those counties upstate and it's not just

    between the environmentalists and the landowners.

    If there's solid public support for it and reasonable zoning, this is a democracy and we

    should allow fracking to go forward in these areas. But it must be carefully monitored to

    see if the industry will step up to the plate or if a ban is the only possible choice.

    Jamie Kitman:

    Do you have any sense of what type of costs or what the order of cost magnitude would

    be to actually effectively regulate the process? It seems that the story in the states where

    there has been fracking has been sometimes sketchy regulations to start with for

    compliance, lack of regulators and people in the field. It seems further that it could be

    hugely expensive to do it. I'm curious if you have any notions of properly doing it in your

    view what that would cost and if there's any mechanism to pay for that besides raising

    peoples taxes?

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    The issue, however, and this is

    where it will really costs money, isthe industry culture.

    Albert Appleton:

    I have a very clear notion on the answer to both of those questions. On the regulatory

    side, when the City of New York in the early 1990s did its watershed protection plan,

    which remains the worldwide model for watershed protection, we hired 450 people. We

    hired scientists, we hired regulators, we hired community outreach. We made

    supplements to the farming industry. Marcellus Shale is eight times as large and a more

    difficult question. It's difficult for me to think you'll ever stop the well problems without

    having onsite inspectors and as many civil engineers

    overseeing all of your concrete and drill casing work.

    The issue, however, and this is where it will really costs

    money, is the industry culture. Most of us who have had

    experience with very large scale of regulations know that you really can't regulate an

    industry that has not made peace with the fact that it's going to be regulated. Otherwise,

    it's just political war after political war and you have to break people over the head. I

    have friends in the real estate industry who can testify that together we learned that the

    hard way when protecting the watershed. So the industry is going to have to significantly

    change its culture. The industry is going to have to prepare to pay $1.00 to $2.00 per TCF

    (trillion cubic feet) to essentially do good housekeeping.

    Jamie Kitman:

    Dr. Engleder, I assume that you're in favor of regulation of this industry. In your

    estimation, which jurisdictions are doing the best job of regulating the industry now?

    What lessons might New York draw from them?

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    Terry Engelder:

    Lets compare Colorado and Pennsylvania and ask the question, do these two parts of

    America look like they should be subject to the same regulatory code? Of course you're

    supposed to say no and that leads us to state regulation rather than federal regulation.

    One of the things that New York State is blessed with of course is being able to sit across

    the border and watch the way that Pennsylvania is regulating the Marcellus, watch the

    way that industry is interacting with the regulators in terms of trying to get everything to

    the point where the public can accept the presence of gas shale production particularly in

    areas that have never seen oil and gas production before.

    In Pennsylvania, we've gone through a series of three secretaries of the Department of

    Environmental Protection. Weve learned how to keep the industry under wraps.

    Regulation is very much like

    the need for state policemen.

    Without the state policemen

    out there, I'm liable to drive

    five miles an hour faster than

    the law permits. How that applies to the industry of course is that industry without

    regulation will cut some corners. With regulation, the regulators will make sure that the

    rules are enforced and everyone operates by the best possible practice. Now we all

    recognize still there's a risk. No one is going to get this perfectly, but the idea is to

    mitigate to the point where the risk reaches a level that the public can live with.

    Jamie Kitman:

    Where do you see that happening now? Wheres the best regulation going on?

    In Pennsylvania weve learned how to keep the industry

    under wraps.

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    There probably can never be

    enough regulators particularly if

    you're on the side of really making

    sure that this is done right.

    Terry Engelder:

    Well, I think in Pennsylvania we got it right, now. I think that the adjustments that had

    been made by the recent Marcellus Shale Advisory Commission, of which I was a

    member, has been very successful.

    Jamie Kitman:

    Are you satisfied with the number of regulators that are out

    in the field there?

    Terry Engelder:

    No. The secretary is not at this point as well. I think that what he would like to do is add

    to that particular staff. Now the trick is to add to the staff, to train the staff. I think that it's

    just as important to make sure that the people that are out in the field really understand a

    number of things to look for. A lot of the issues are associated with casing and cement

    regarding gas migration. This is a somewhat tricky business and what Pennsylvania

    found itself doing was spending a lot of time bringing regulators -- that is the site

    inspectors -- the people on the ground up to snuff in terms of what they were looking for

    and Pennsylvania is getting there. I think in answer to your question, there probably can

    never be enough regulators particularly if you're on the side of really making sure that

    this is done right. So that you have this conflict between budget, the amount of money

    that's available to hire these people, and the number of regulators.

    Jamie Kitman:

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    Another question. The EPA hasnt gotten very involved to-date in setting regulations, as

    people alluded to, there's no national standard. Would it make sense to you to have sort of

    well, Colorado and Pennsylvania are different, would it make sense to you to have sort

    of a national baseline standard that might be upgraded or stricter in certain areas that are

    more populous or more sensitive environmentally?

    Terry Engelder:

    Well, there are a number of different issues that face the surface area of these two places.

    Now in terms of regulation, the standard regulations for example, can be a requirement

    for the quality of cement.

    Jamie Kitman:

    True.

    Terry Engelder:

    It can be a requirement for the number of casing strings that are run. So that in a sense,

    what happens in the subsurface of Colorado and what happens in the subsurface in New

    York and Pennsylvania will be the same. Those regulations can be uniform nationally.

    What's happening now in the surface however is quite of a bit different issue. New York

    is going to have different landscape problems.

    Jamie Kitman:

    So would it be safe to say that you would be in favor of a national standard that could be

    modified state to state?

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    Terry Engelder:

    Yes.

    Jamie Kitman:

    To litigate the thickness of the concrete in the wells 50 different times doesnt seem very

    efficient.

    Terry Engelder:

    Absolutely not. As long as the regulations apply to the subsurface, there really is in effect

    no difference.

    Jamie Kitman:

    It's the same thing.

    Terry Engelder:

    Between one location and the next.

    The operators will tell you, get a set of regulations in place and dont be a moving target

    with time. Of course even in Pennsylvania, that target in terms of regulations has moved

    with time. The operators will live with a set of regulations as long as they really know

    ahead of time, This is it, this is what we're going to do.

    Jamie Kitman:

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    When we look at the Pennsylvania

    experience, I think industry got

    ahead of regulations there.

    Right. Notwithstanding the fact that they often fight the regulations before they get put in

    place.

    Stuart, let me ask you the same question or a variation of that. It's a relatively recent

    debate in New York but we've had hydro-fracking in many jurisdictions. In terms of the

    regulatory scheme, what are you taking away from what's been done before?

    Stuart Gruskin:

    Well, it's true that New York has had the benefit of studying the experience in other states

    inherent in taking the approach of saying, Let's try to figure

    out what all the potential issues are and how to address them.

    It means going out and looking at what happened. The

    professional staff at DEC has been very involved in carefully

    looking at the problems that have occurred in other places, of

    determining whether it's likely that those are going to happen to New York, how to deal

    with those kinds of things in New York. As I said before, I think it's worth bearing in

    mind, this remains a work in process.

    Jamie Kitman:

    Right. Let me refine my question, what's working and what's not?

    Stuart Gruskin: 7

    Well, when we looked at the Pennsylvania experience, I think in a general sense and

    what's been borne out by the facts, is that industry got ahead of regulations there. That's

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    why they're making adjustments now and even this past week as a result of some of the

    work in the Advisory Council, they're changing buffers and so on. I would make the

    argument that those are the kind of things that you want to be deciding before the drilling

    starts as opposed to changing after the drilling starts when you're looking at the potential

    for contamination of water supplies or other environmental impacts.

    Jamie Kitman:

    Okay. Let me just jump over to Mayor Ryan. As an environmental lawyer and as

    somebody in a place which is likely to be very affected by this, what is your sense of the

    regulatory scheme as it comes down? I mean is it valid to think that perhaps if fracking

    started pretty soon in New York, we would be ahead of the regulations again?

    Mayor Ryan:

    Absolutely.

    Everybody keeps

    talking about

    Pennsylvania. It's

    clear that there are still a lot of problems in Pennsylvania. Before we start, we should

    develop regulations based on sound science only after a very careful environmental

    impact study has been made of this high volume hydro-fracking. The other thing is,

    yesterday 250 doctors and healthcare professionals presented a letter to Governor Cuomo

    about the fact that there is not one thing in this new draft that deals with health impacts of

    this industry. There are so many anecdotal things that need to be addressed

    systematically. Good science takes those anecdotes and says, What is this? We know

    there are all sorts of cancer clusters all over the country. I would suggest that's one of the

    reasons IBM left Binghamton, because they polluted it so badly that they wanted to get

    We know there are all sorts of cancer clusters all over the

    country. I would suggest that's one of the reasons IBM left

    Binghamton, because they polluted it so badly that they

    want to get away from it.

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    away from it. [Laughter] There's all sort of flumes there. So there are so many issues and

    we dont want to go back to those kinds of situations.

    How many toxic sites are there in the country that haven't been cleaned up from

    before the environmental regulation? Let's just take a really close look at the history of

    this. 2005, Dick Cheney,

    George Bush; they go in a

    room, close doors, come up

    with an energy policy; a new

    energy policy for the country.

    What's that energy policy?

    They're the ones that knew. I

    live right by the Millennium pipeline. Why are they building this pipeline? I didn't know

    anything about the Marcellus Shale. Nobody was talking about it. I live right on top of it.

    Nobody knew anything about it. It was a well kept secret. These guys were in the

    backroom making deals that are going to make them richer and richer and richer. There's

    nothing wrong with making money. And some people laugh at the people down in Wall

    Street. Now I think the uniform thing is that people are getting sick of their government

    not being honest with them about what's going on in this country right now. If you look at

    the kinds of things that are going on in this industry - it's only six years old, that's why

    we're having problems. We never took the time to do this right. If you're going to do it in

    New York State, we want it done right. The regulatory scheme right now as it's being

    filed is not sufficient in my opinion. The DEC recently published a draft regulation and

    expects them to be reviewed and commented concurrently with the DEIS draft (Draft

    Environmental Impact Study). In other words, before we really know what we're dealing

    with. It seems that the fix is in and it really isit's kind of the idea of fire, ready, aim

    Jonathan Cohen

    Let's just take a really close look at the history of this.

    2005, Dick Cheney, George Bush; they go in a room,

    close doors, come up with an energy policy; a new energy

    policy for the country.

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    Whatever influence the industry

    might have been able to exert in

    other jurisdictions, it never trickled

    into the substance of review at

    DEC.

    Great, thank you. Panelists thank you. I think we want to open up the floor to questions.

    I'm going to ask John Giardino to lead our question period. So John, I want you to come

    up.

    Question and Answer Session

    Diana Barrett

    I'm just amazed that no one on the panel has mentioned the word lobbyist [laughter]

    because the fact is the lobbyist in this particular industry has an inordinate amount of

    money to influence everything from the way environmental impact is gauged to how the

    composition of the fracking fluid. Would you please comment on lobbyist influence?

    Mayor Ryan:

    Well, first of all, if the gas industry really thought this could be done safely, why won't

    they take the hundreds of millions of dollars that they put into slick Madison Ave.

    advertising campaigns and put it in a trust fund to make sure that if anything goes wrong,

    regular people will be covered. You look at what those people in Dimock, PA live with.

    You look at what they have to go up against. They fought a battle for two years to get

    their water cleaned up and it's always a nondisclosure agreement because that's the way it

    is with big business. Individual people are going to be affected by this pollution and most

    wont have the money to fight these big corporations.

    Stuart Gruskin:

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    You may not believe me when I sat this, but I can tell you that during the time I was at

    DEC, the review that was being done was strictly based upon the engineering and the

    science by a professional staff that was not being influenced by lobbyists or frankly by

    lobbyists for any part of this debate. DEC went down a path of saying there's one chance

    to get this right and we're going to do it based upon the engineering and the science.

    That's frankly probably why it's taking so long. I can't speak for DEC today; but I can tell

    you that whatever influence the industry might have been able to exert in other

    jurisdictions, it never trickled into the substance of review at DEC.

    Mayor Ed Koch:

    Mr. Appleton, I thought your

    summation was magnificent. I mean I

    really came here not knowing very

    much. I do believe I have an

    appreciation for what is involved.

    My question to you is, if you were in charge, could you come up with a regulatory system

    that would permit the drillings to take place and in a way that would be safe and also

    profitable? Is there such a system that you currently believe could be imposed?

    Albert Appleton:

    Could you come up with a regulatory system that would

    permit the drillings to take place and in a way that would

    be safe and also profitable?

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    There is as long as you accept the obligation to zero out much of the landscape from ever

    doing fracking. If you're willing to accept that and you're willing to say to the industry

    you can make lots of money in the remaining landscapes, then if you're willing to spend

    that money and that time, you can design such a system. Of course there's one other

    question I'd like to add to that Mr. Mayor, do I really think the industry would adhere to it

    without me pointing a gun at them every day of every year?

    David Cohen

    I'd like to get back to a comment by Mayor Ryan and address it to Dr. Engleder. Dr.

    Engleder, you wrote a seminal paper on the Marcellus Shale. I forget the year it was

    2003 or something, 2001.

    Did President Bush and

    Cheney get a peek at that

    paper before you released

    it to the public?

    Terry Engelder:

    No.

    Fracking has been going on since the Roosevelt Administration; that's a fact. It is a fact

    that fracking and gas shale started under the Carter Administration when Carter

    reconstituted the old Department of Energy. This happened in the gas shales of Kentucky.

    Those Kentucky gas shales have been produced by fracking and horizontal drilling for

    more than 30 years without people raising a fuss. It's been well-regulated. The state of

    Michigan for example, the Antrim Gas Shale, which is the same age as the Marcellus,

    was produced starting in the 1980s again with the same result. The people of Michigan

    have not put up a fuss. Why haven't they put up a fuss? Because the particular process

    Hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, simply is not

    destroying the landscape and not raising the kind of

    specter that Gasland has raised.

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    The fact that there is an exemption

    to the Safe Drinking Water Act is

    not binding on New York State.

    used, hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, simply is not destroying the landscape

    and not raising the kind of specter that Gasland has raised.

    Gasland, I have to point out is filled with innuendo and there's a good reason that the gas

    industry is pushing back. The well for example of a tap that you saw lighted at the end of

    this, that guy drilled a well through a coal bed. Of course coal bed methane is going to

    come up into his drinking water. That had nothing to do with fracking.

    But concerning the history of this fracking. Massive slick water fracking was developed

    in Texas in the late 1990s. I'm reminded of a comment by a Philadelphia City councilman

    at a panel like this about a year and a half ago which is, Ban fracking in the Delaware

    water basin. We'll bring our gas from Texas. They're selling it to us. Of course let me

    remind you that that gas from Texas is being produced right in between the buildings and

    within the city limits of Fort Worth. Basically what this guy was saying is, Let the

    Texans ruin their landscape so we can benefit from the energy that they're sending up

    here. Somehow or another, that doesnt seem fair.

    Stuart Gruskin:

    Just another quick point because there's a question

    that's often asked about the impact of the Halliburton

    loophole.iI always try to point out that as far New

    York State is concerned, it's absolutely immaterial.

    The fact that there is an exemption to the Safe Drinking Water Act is not binding on New

    York State. The state can't take steps to protect the waters within New York State. In fact,

    if you take a look at the draft regulations, you'll see that buried in the 1,500 or so pages,

    there are many, many practices that really are not governed whatsoever by what might be

    in the federal law.

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    Audience Member:

    I'm concerned with the economic aspect of this undertaking. I've been to conferences

    where industry representatives admitted that getting up a quantity of gas, a unit of gas,

    presently costs considerably more than the $3.50 than you can get for a unit of gas on the

    market.No one has asked, How they're going to bridge that gap?

    Ed Koch: Raise the price.

    Terry Engelder:

    Remember, gas is a commodity and one of the things that industry cannot control is the

    price of a commodity. So these gas wells will produce for a tremendously long period of

    time and what that really means is that Wall Street investors will profit. It's Wall Street,

    not the industry that is really paying for this, right? Wall Street will just see a longer

    period of time pass before they start making money off of this. There are a lot of

    economic models out there and no one can really tell for sure where all of these are

    going. You're absolutely right, if gas stays at $3.50 or collapses heaven forbid to $2.00,

    what you're going to see is a lot of the companies fail, you're going to see a lot of gas rigs

    go home until the demand for gas returns which it surely will over time.

    Jamie Kitman:

    A related question I wanted to ask is that I just read yesterday that in North Dakota,

    they're flaring off natural gas, so apparently it's not even worth collecting. I'm just

    curious, why then the rush to establish this here when it would appear that there's excess

    amounts of natural gas in North Dakota?

    Why the rush to establish hydrofracking here when it

    would appear that there's excess amounts of natural gas

    in North Dakota?

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    Terry Engelder:

    One of the things that is very characteristic of this industry is that it does require a very

    large infrastructure and very expensive infrastructure. The reason gas is being flared in

    North Dakota is of course the product that they're after in North Dakotathis is from the

    Bakken shale-- is oil. You can put it in trucks and drive to the nearest tank terminal or

    whatnot. But if you dont have a pipeline, and they dont have one in North Dakota,

    basically you're stuck with that gas as a waste product.

    Over the last two years America has for the first time in three decades increased oil

    production. Largely because of fracking allowed access to this type of oil like the

    Bakken oil that had never been obtained before. Then again there's some price to be paid

    for that increase of oil.

    Incidentally, increase in production of oil means less money flowing to countries that

    dont really like us, and we all agree that that's good. But boy this industry, energy in

    general you guys have to realize there's a price to be paid for putting up windmill farms,

    solar farms. There is no nuclear industry, there is no energy industry that doesnt come

    without a risk. Basically we support our lifestyle off of these economic risks, off of these

    environmental risks. Otherwise, we are all going to have to go back to chopping wood.

    Albert Appleton:

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    Fossil fuel made the world we have

    today. But fossil fuel is beginning

    to unmake it.

    If I had a dime for every time I've been in one of these debates and people who had told

    me we're going out and freeze in the dark [laughter] if we dont do some energy industry

    policy, I could at least invest in Exxon stock. [Laughter].

    I like to remind people when we kind of talk about energy security that back in the

    1960s, when we could have imported Saudi Arabian oil for $2.00 a barrel, we didnt

    because the energy industry said that in the name of national security, we had to block

    imports to promote American domestic production.

    I'd like to remind you that in the 1970s,

    when I worked on the Trans-Alaskan pipeline

    issue, the industry said national security required us to bring it down to the West Coast

    even when the preferred alternative in any kind of subsidy was take it down the Trans-

    Alaskan pipeline so we would have a gas pipeline as well as an oil pipeline. I've looked at

    the number lately: something like 400 billion TCF (trillion cubic feet) of gas has been re-

    injected in that field in 40 years in the name of spurious energy security.

    Every time the energy industry tells me about energy security, I check my wallet just to

    be sure it's there, [laughter]. Then I look at the alternative to that particular policy. From a

    purely environmental point of view, I hate to say this, but Saudi Arabia has the best oil in

    the world and we have to ship it. Tar sands is basically an industry strategy so they can

    control research.

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    Professor Engelder is exactly right: fossil fuel made the world we have today. But fossil

    fuel is beginning to unmake it. The idea that a hundred years from now, we will still be

    burning natural gas is a folly because if we are correct that the world economy will grow

    five more times by 2050, which is the official Chinese economic growth goal, then just to

    stay even, we're going to have to drop fossil fuel consumption per person by 80% - fossil

    fuel emission. This is a statistical impossibility.

    We had a great ran as a culture with fossil fuel but fossil fuel days are numbered. Here is

    the thing to think about in shale gas, and this is why Freds question about the prices is so

    relevant: The industry estimates we might want to spend a trillion dollars on shale gas, if

    they get their dreams, which even they in their offering statements admit they're not

    going to. Why do we want to spend all of this money on a fuel that is declining when we

    could have the energy economy of the future?

    People often tend to say to me, How can you be for green energy? It's totally

    impractical. It won't happen for twenty years, 50 years. In 1940 United States Army

    ranked 19th

    in the world. It was ahead of Portugal but behind Bulgaria. At that time, we

    had an economy with 10% unemployed, 10% underemployed, only 75% utilization of our

    industrial stock. Five years later, we had an army of 11 million men that had so much

    equipment that the Germans long ago gave up of keeping statistics on it because it was

    too depressing. We were able to do that kind of movement enormously quickly with

    focus and money, or as FDR once said, Willpower, manpower and brainpower.

    We had a great ran as a culture with fossil fuel but fossil

    fuel days are numbered.

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    That's the option that I believe lies underneath all of these discussions, underneath all of

    these calculations; that's the ultimate assumption that has to be challenged. Even if shale

    gas fracking was a good idea, is it the best idea? Or are we going to risk the entire New

    York state landscape, the entire Pennsylvania landscape? Is there a better idea? We must

    quit debating these things in yes/no terms. We have got to think of them as investment

    bankers. What's the best place to spend their money?

    Audience Member:

    I run an environmental group, but frankly what's troubling me about this discussion is

    there's been a real failure to discuss drilling in the broader context of New York states

    energy agenda right now; not the future, not wishful thinking. The bottom line is that

    with virtually every energy source, one could wax poetic about landscape destruction, air

    quality. Taking the endpoint on fracking, probably three quarters of the people in this

    room are thrilled if the endpoint gets shot down. But bottom line near to midterm, air

    quality gets worse, CO2 emission go up. Take offshore wind energy. I know they issued

    an RFP off Queens in Long Island. Everyone knows the prices are going to come back

    too high and they're going to drop it. So what is the best mix for New York State right

    now in terms of costs, reliability and environmental impact? One last thing and I can say

    this because I run an environmental group, environmentalists are lobbyists,

    environmental organizations are making more money off the Marcellus debate than any

    other issues. Why? How do you raise money with an environmental group? You identify

    the apocalypse and then you say, Give me money, I'll stop it.

    Albert Appleton:

    Weasel words like wishful thinking andunrealistic fantasies, impugn the motives of

    the environmental groups. Do you really think the people upstate are seeing their property

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    values disappear, their water poisonedthat there are people who make money from

    this?

    Audience Member continuing:

    I'm not talking about local groups. I'm talking of the major environmental groups.

    Albert Appleton:

    Most of the major environmental groups frankly have weaseled on this issue because

    manyincluding The Sierra Club -- are afraid of being too far out in the edge. They

    always feel they have to appear reasonable. My advice is not to be reasonable, it's to be

    right.

    Diana Barrett: Bravo!

    Mayor Ryan:

    Can I weigh in on that as well? There's stillif you readI have a handout that gives

    some readings, and I hope you'll go back and look at it. One says that over the past few

    decades, if you look at the data, the US and many other countries have shown that the

    supposedly iron link between energy growth and economic growth can be reduced and

    actually reversed. America enjoys more than double the GDP but consumes one half the

    oil, they use two thirds less water and directly uses natural gas and 18% less electricity to

    make a dollar of GDP than they did in 1975. That's with no energy policy. Compare that

    to Denmark, which has grown their GDP by 56% and their energy costs haven't increased

    a dollar.

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    You can save so much energy just

    by switching to wood pellets. We

    have one of the biggest wood pellet

    factories in the country in Deposit,

    New York.

    We are so far behindthere are so many other alternatives that aren't being pursued. You

    can do other things, look at the program we put together in upstate. You can save so

    much energy just by switching to wood pellets. We have one of the biggest wood pellet

    factories in the country in Deposit, New York.

    If you combine that with retrofitting all the rural

    properties, which is really how you save on greenhouse

    gases because buildings are the biggest greenhouse gas

    producers -- you'll produce thousands of jobs.

    Like Al said, there are other alternatives. We need to start looking at them because we are

    so far behind. China by 2020 will produce 80% of its autos as electric powered trucks.

    Are we going to buy them from China or are we going to do it ourselves? If we had the

    same CAFE standards that Jimmy Carter put in place, which David Stockman dismantled

    as soon as Ronald Reagan became president, we wouldn't be having this discussion right

    now. We would have saved so much energy.

    Stuart Gruskin:

    I want to give a word of advice to the audience: if anyone is planning on commenting on

    the SGIS draft that's out there, I would counsel leaving out these very important big

    picture energy issues, because DEC is not the arbiter of this stuff. DEC is not making

    decisions about whether hydro-fracking is going to undermine renewable energy or

    whether hydro-fracking is needed because natural gas is better than the other alternatives.

    DEC is not engaged in that balancing act. DEC is responsible for regulatory

    responsibility only. They are looking at an activity that is legal in New York and trying to

    objectively assess what are the serious impacts. So when you comment, talk about things

    like the storm water controls and the air impacts and the landscape fragmentation and all

    the other environmental consequence. Send your letters about the bigger picture, energy

    concerns to the politicians that ought to be dealing with the, it but not to DEC.

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    There's no question that Mayor

    Ryan was right when he said before

    that as we sit here today, New York

    State is not equipped to deal with

    this.

    Jamie Kitman:

    Isn't it true that one of the things they should focus on is the fact that they have a memo I

    think maybe you wrote [laughter] that has to do with

    Stuart Gruskin: I'm doomed.

    Jamie Kitman:

    I think it was written by you, Stu, pointing out that DEC was going to lose 800 and

    something staff members from 2008 to 2010.

    Stuart Gruskin: Yes.

    Jamie Kitman:

    It was a pretty strong argument that we're not going to have

    enough people to regulate this industry properly. They're

    talking about restoring 260 but that still leaves us down 600

    people to do

    Stuart Gruskin:

    Right. Well, it could not be truer. The fact is that there was a dramatic defunding of

    environmental programs in New York State over the last few years. There's no question

    that Mayor Ryan was right when he said before that as we sit here today, New York State

    is not equipped to deal with this. In order to have a successful regulatory program, first

    the process is going to have to be finished which means that the comment period must

    conclude; the comments are going to have to be reviewed and DEC is going to have to

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    reach some conclusions. But you can't have a successful regulatory program without

    enough staff. You need people to analyze the permits, you need people to do

    enforcement, you need people to do inspections and that is why I believe this (fracking)

    will happen very, very, very slowly in New York State.

    Elizabeth Radow:

    I'm a practicing attorney in real estate development and construction. I've worked on

    leveraged buyouts and company workouts. I chair the Hydraulic Fracturing Committee

    for the League of Women Voters. What I want to talk about is economics. The gentleman

    here asked about the money. This is an investor driven business. If you were to look at

    the 10-Ks for these companies, it'd be obvious that they're speaking to their investors. In

    fact the Chesapeake Energy 10-K speaks about the 2006 to 2008 land grab. They're proud

    of the fact that they were able to amass a large amount of land from upstate landowners

    and keep out the competition which is excellent for investors. This is not so terrific for

    the homeowners. I have reviewed many, many leases. I've been doing this for a very long

    time. These leases operate more like deeds with homeowner guarantees and the impact

    here is going to have a deleterious impact on the secondary mortgage market.

    These companies in their own 10-Ks talk about the risks. They also talk about the fact

    that they're underinsured. Chesapeake Energy has $400 million in general liability

    insurance. The others dont necessarily disclose for the blowout insurance, I think its

    $75 million. This is for their tens of thousands of wells across the country. So we have to

    ask ourselves as taxpayers now, what are we doing? Are we going to have an impact

    again trying to rescue the secondary mortgage market? We have home owners upstate

    who can't get mortgages now and this is mounting now.

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    If you were to look at a gas lease and look at the fact that the gas companies are reserving

    to themselves the right to create surface drilling to store gas from any source whatsoever,

    to have ongoing easements after they surrendered the property, to assign the lease to

    anyone whatsoever without the homeowner getting a chance to consent. So that someone

    who comes on to their property to drill is someone that they've never met before. These

    are people who are raising children in our state. Now we look at highly leveraged

    companies and we're talking about how rich they are. Frankly, I'm not sure if they have

    the money. I had proposed to our government, and Comptroller DiNapoli has very wisely

    had said, Let's have an upfront fund to pay for emergencies. Our governor and our

    legislature are not supporting it and neither is the industry. Furthermore, even if we have

    problems, not all of them can be remediated. If you have well-water contamination, your

    property value could sink. If we look at these in the context of drilling in 34 states and we

    have a $6.7 trillion secondary mortgage market, what


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