Newhouse capability modeling v2

Mission Resource/Capability Analyzer: Estimating Multi-

Mission Service Cost

Marilyn NewhousePrincipal Lead Systems Engineer

February 23, 2012

January 5, 2012 PM Challenge: Capability Modeling 2

Operations Control Center Evolution

• Operations Control Centers (OCCs) continue to evolve from a dedicated mission and customer to multi-mission, multi-customer – Uses available development funding more efficiently

– Reuses capabilities, concepts, and products

– Increases the client pool for existing assets

• Evolving technologies are expanding the mission types, as well as options for sharing capabilities, distributed operations,

• Control Center management continues to struggle with the problem of how to accurately model required capabilities and resources, and how to cost mission services


Cost Estimation Pitfalls

• Failure to take into account, or over-reliance on, economies of scale– Secondary resources may not scale identically to primary resources

– Differing assumptions regarding which economies are acceptable

• Insufficient flexibility for differing operational paradigms– Adaptation of OCC development processes to short, rapid demonstration

missions vs. flagship missions

– Estimation of support for ongoing, long-term or extended mission operations

• Team communication


Cost Estimation Processes

• Management and service teams must– Estimate the capacity of the current facilities and its scalability for different

mission types

– Determine realistic costs across multiple operational scenarios• Test flights to payloads and free flying spacecraft• Engineering support to full operations• Single operations center to distributed operations with international partners

– Model services to provide accurate cost predictions for current and future customers

– Model resource usage to identify shortfalls in resources or resource coverage

– Identify options to easily tailor resources and capabilities to customer requirements

– Execute “what-if” scenarios to understand risks and identify potential mitigations


Cost Estimation Processes (cont.)

• Management and service teams need a tool (or tools) to support multiple paradigms and time scales– Initial planning of overall service support paradigm

– Ongoing business development; identification of potential customers

– Cost estimation for new customers

– Replanning estimates for existing customers

– Annual budget cycle planning


Mission Resource/Capability Analyzer Characteristics

• Excel-based– Provides flexibility, adaptability, rapid familiarization

– Graphical presentation to facilitate understanding of integrated data

– Extensibility through Visual Basic for interfaces, complex algorithms, and automation

• Provides a visual summary of the total resource utilization and budget for a control center

• Supports what-if scenarios – Understanding dependencies and limitations on available support

– Early identification of resource conflicts

– Contingency planning

• Provides detailed monthly and annual cost and resource provides to support budget processes and procurement planning


Heritage

• The original budget analysis tool provides a framework for easily specifying project cost profiles for multiple missions and rapidly manipulating alternate profiles and funding scenarios1 2 3

MISSION: Mission 1 Mission 2 Mission 3LAUNCH DATE: 9/30/2016 TRUE 9/30/2018 TRUE 9/30/2020 TRUE

LAUNCH VEHICLE/SITE: None None None

2010 2012 20141.0290 1.0290 1.0290 1.0290 1.0290 1.0290

425,000 425,000 650,000Alloc. Dur. Cost Cost Alloc. Dur. Cost Cost Alloc. Dur. Cost Cost(%) (mo.) (w/o infl.) (w/ infl.) (%) (Mo.) (w/o infl.) (w/ infl.) (%) (Mo.) (w/o infl.) (w/ infl.)

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 012 1,000 1,090 12 1,000 1,090 12 1,000 1,0900 0 0

33% 12 141,653 158,813 33% 12 141,653 158,813 33% 12 216,667 242,91533% 11 141,653 163,418 33% 11 141,653 163,418 33% 11 216,667 249,959

0 0 0 0 0 01 1 1

67% 36 284,305 323,321 67% 36 284,305 323,321 67% 36 434,333 493,96333% 12 141,653 168,158 33% 12 141,653 168,158 33% 12 216,667 257,208

100% 47 425,958 491,478 100% 47 425,958 491,478 100% 47 651,000 751,171425,958 491,478 425,958 491,478 651,000 751,171

Calculate Calculate Calculate

Include

<<< Build Mission Profiles >>> <<< Build Mission Profiles >>> <<< Build Mission Profiles >>> <<< Build Mission Profiles >>> <<< Build Mission Profiles >>> <<< Build Mission Profiles >>> <<< Build Mission Profiles >>> <<< Build Mission Profiles >>> <<< Build Mission Profiles >>> <<< Build Mission Profiles >>>

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

$ (K

)

Fiscal Year

Budget ProfileMission 7

Mission 6

Mission 5

Mission 4

Mission 3

Mission 2

Mission 1

Budget Line


Service SelectionService Catalog Input

($K???)

Project 1 TRUE 2 TRUE 3 TRUE 4 TRUEProject Name Project A Project B Project C Project D

Gold Level Service Bundle FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE TRUE

Long Term Storage 0 Terabytes 20 Terabytes 0 Terabytes Terabytes

Near Term Storage 0 Terabytes 10 Terabytes 0 Terabytes Terabytes

Ops/Data/Help Desk Support 0 24x7 0

Local Team - Real Time 0 Members 40 Members 0 Members Members

Local Team - Non-Real Time 0 Members 20 Members 0 Members Members

Remote Team 0 Members 30 Members 0 Members Members

Operations Area(s) 0 3 0

Remote Sites 0 3 0

Silver Level Service Bundle FALSE FALSE TRUE TRUE



Ops/Data/Help Desk Support 0 0 8x5





Remote Sites 0 0 2

Basic Level Service Bundle TRUE FALSE FALSE TRUE



Ops/Data/Help Desk Support 8x5 0 0


Calculate Calculate Calculate Calculate

• Fully automated selection based on service levels• Easy adaptation of common characteristics• Up to 5 missions for “what if” scenarios


Automatic Service Expansion for Detailed Resources

Mission Service Profile

Project Project AService Level Basic

Project Milestones Operations Team Size Operations Area(s) 1Planning 12/1/2011 1/20/2012 Local Real-Time 5 Remote Sites(s) 1

Systems Engineering 1/20/2012 5/17/2013 Local Non-Real-Time 5Procurement 6/1/2012 3/1/2013 Remote 5

Systems Integration 12/1/2012 5/17/2013Simulations 3/1/2013 5/17/2013

CoFR 4/17/2013 5/17/2013 Mission Operations 5/17/2013 11/17/2013

Post-Flight 11/17/2013 5/31/2014

Service Request Details

Number UnitsCost/

Month Number Units Total Cost Number Units CostCST 0.2 Shift $5 Workstation 10 Item $50 Annual Software Support 10 Terabyte $12

Marshall Ops 8x5 1.0 Shift $13 22" Monitor 20 Item $20 Core/Server Side Invest. 3 Item $30Marshall Ops Extended Weekend 1.0 Shift $13 Servers 1 Item $120 Keyset Unit 5 Item $5

Marshall Data 8x5 1.0 Shift $13 Printers 2 Item $2 Flat screeen monitor 5 Item $5Help Desk 8x5 1.0 Shift $10 Spares - Revisit 1 Dollars $50 VOIP Thin Client 5 Item $5

Help Desk 8x5 Event Support 1.0 Shift $10 Clock 1 Item $1 Speakers 5 Item $5Help Desk 24x7 0.0 Shift $0 Ethernet adapter 1 Item $1 Footswitch 0 Item $0

Help Desk 24x7 Event Support 1.0 Shift $10 Net switches 1 Item $1 Headset 5 Item $5Training 8x5 0.5 Shift $9 Net Fiber Port 1 Item $1 USB Hub 5 Item $5

System Management 1.0 Shift $13 Net routers 1 Item $1 Core/Server Side Invest. 0 Item $0Systems Engineering 1.0 Shift $24 Cabling/ Connectors 1 Item $1 Talk/Listen IPCEU License 0 License $0Software Engineering 1.0 Shift $19 MS Windows/ Office 10 License $10 Multi-point group latency reduction 0 Item $0Network Engineering 1.0 Shift $19 Red Hat Linux Server 1 License $1 Per use license one channel audio 0 License $0

CMG 1.0 Shift $14 Red Hat Net Mgmt 1 License $1 Per use license LDAP access 0 License $0

Labor Hardware/Software & Maintenance

Cost Profile

Resource Profile

…• Each mission independently expanded using database of hardware, software,

facility, and personnel resources• Each resource can be overridden for full flexibility


Automatic Resource Allocation and Cost Estimation

MONTH FYMonthly Staffing

Annual Total CST Ops 8x5

Ops Extended Weekend Data 8x5

Help Desk 8x5

Help Desk 8x5 Event Support

Help Desk 24x7

Help Desk 24x7 Event

Support Training 8x5System

ManagementSystems

Engineering CMG IV&V Security

$2,224 $0 4 15 15 15 9 9 0 9 3 11 16 16 16 18 12 12 12 2

Dec-11 2011 0.3 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1J an-12 0.3 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1Feb-12 3.3 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0.1Mar-12 3.3 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0.1Apr-12 3.3 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0.1

May-12 3.3 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0.1J un-12 163.9 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0.1J ul-12 163.9 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0.1

Aug-12 163.9 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0.1Sep-12 2012 223.9 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0.1Oct-12 163.9 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0.1Nov-12 163.9 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0.1Dec-12 168.9 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.1J an-13 168.9 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.1

Labor Resources

MONTH FYMonthly PYMT

Annual Total

Labor Total

Marshall Ops 8x5

Marshall Ops

Extended Weekend

Marshall Data 8x5

Help Desk 8x5

Help Desk 8x5 Event Support

Help Desk 24x7

Help Desk 24x7 Event

Support Training 8x5System

ManagementSystems

EngineeringSoftware

Engineering CMG IV&V Security

$4,490 $5,067 87 188 188 188 87 87 0 87 52 131 385 308 308 260 115 150 173 30

Dec-11 2012 $6 $5 $1J an-12 $6 $5 $1Feb-12 $69 $5 $24 $19 $19 $1Mar-12 $69 $5 $24 $19 $19 $1Apr-12 $69 $5 $24 $19 $19 $1

May-12 $69 $5 $24 $19 $19 $1J un-12 $229 $5 $24 $19 $19 $1J ul-12 $229 $5 $24 $19 $19 $1

Aug-12 $229 $5 $24 $19 $19 $1Sep-12 2012 $229 $1,203 $561 $5 $24 $19 $19 $1Oct-12 $229 $5 $24 $19 $19 $1Nov-12 $229 $5 $24 $19 $19 $1Dec-12 $293 $5 $13 $24 $19 $19 $14 $10 $13 $14 $1J an-13 $293 $5 $13 $24 $19 $19 $14 $10 $13 $14 $1Feb-13 $293 $5 $13 $24 $19 $19 $14 $10 $13 $14 $1

Labor Costs

• Excel functions and visual basic code support automatic allocation of resources over time and estimation of inflated monthly and annual costs


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647

Training 8x5

Training 8x5

Individual Resource Roll-Up

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

CST

CST

0

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4

6

8

10

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1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Systems Engineering

Systems Engineering

• Each resource rolls-up overall existing and “what-if” missions• Graphical and tabular interface supports procurement planning and review for

shortfalls or underutilization of resources


Aggregate Resource Roll-Up

CS

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= >3= 2>x ≤3= 1>x ≤2= 0.5>x ≤1= -0.5>x ≤0.5= -1>x ≤-0.5= -2>x ≤-1= -2>x ≤-3= <-3

Labor Shortfall

Dec-11Feb-12Apr-12Jun-12Aug-12Oct-12Dec-12Feb-13Apr-13Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Aug-14Oct-14Dec-14Feb-15Apr-15Jun-15Aug-15

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Labor

10.00-12.00

8.00-10.00

6.00-8.00

4.00-6.00

2.00-4.00

0.00-2.00

• Aggregate roll-up of resources supports review and reallocation


Service Level Resource Definition

Hardware Resource Unit Cost Max Units Unit Basic Gold Silver

Server/PC/Printer/LRUWorkstation $5,000 30 Item 1 1 1 (per user)

22" Monitor $1,000 30 Item 2 2 2 (per user)

Servers $120,000 30 Item 0.05 0.10 0.07 (per user)

Printers $1,000 30 Item 0.20 0.50 0.33 (per user)Spares - Revisit $50,000 30 Dollars 1 3 2 (insitutional)

Wall Displays Clock $1,000 30 Item 1 1 1 (default per operations area)

Ethernet adapter $1,000 30 Item 1 1 1 (default per operations area)

Video Distribution Net switches $1,000 30 Item 1 1 1 (per server)

Net Fiber Port $1,000 30 Item 1 1 1 (per server)

Net routers $1,000 30 Item 1 1 1 (per server)

Cabling/ Connectors $1,000 30 Item 1 1 1 (per server)

Long Term Storage /Ent.Tape LibTB HAL/DMF invest. $1,000 30 Terabyte 10 20 20 (total storage)

Tape Media $1,000 30 Pack 1 1 1 (per TB)

Media Frame $1,000 30 Item 0.1 0.1 0.1 (per TB)

Annual HW Support $12,000 30 Terabyte 1 3 2 (per TB)Cost per Shift

$KMaximum

UnitsYearly Cost

$KUnits Basic Gold Silver

DefaultsHelp Desk 8x5 24x7 8x5

PositionCST CST $24,038 2 $250,000 Shift 0.2 0.5 0.5Ops 8x5 MOps $12,500 9 $130,000 Shift 1 3 2Extended Weekend MWEOps $12,500 4 $130,000 Shift 0 0 0Data 8x5 Mdata $12,500 6 $130,000 Shift 1 3 2Help Desk 8x5 HD8x5 $9,615 4 $100,000 Shift 1 3 2Help Desk 8x5 Event Support HD8x5Ev $9,615 1 $100,000 Shift 0 0 0Help Desk 24x7 HD24x7 $9,615 5 $100,000 Shift 0 2 1Help Desk 24x7 Event Support HD24x7Ev $9,615 1 $100,000 Shift 0 0 0

• Underlying databases provide definition of available resources, associated costs, default service level allocations


Budget Roll-Up Across All Missions

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

$ (K

)

Fiscal Year

Budget ProfileProject D

Project D

Project C

Project B

Project A

Total Current Mission Budget

Total Cost

FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Totals

Total New Mission Budget 5,060 13,695 9,524 3,744 3,853 3,965 4,080 4,198 4,320 4,445 56,884Total Current Mission Budget 21,900 25,100 24,100 23,200 20,200 20,200 2,000 2,000 0 0 138,700

Total Mission Budget 26,960 38,795 33,624 26,944 24,053 24,165 6,080 6,198 4,320 4,445 195,584Total Cost 38,000 39,102 40,236 41,403 42,603 43,839 45,110 46,419 47,765 49,150 433,627

Budget to Cost Delta -11,040 -307 -6,612 -14,458 -18,551 -19,674 -39,031 -40,221 -43,445 -44,705 -238,043Available Funds (Capital Investment) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Totals

Project A 1,203 2,654 750 772 794 817 841 866 891 916 10,504Project B 3,857 8,525 3,602 1,948 2,004 2,063 2,122 2,184 2,247 2,312 30,865Project C 0 2,517 5,172 1,024 1,054 1,085 1,116 1,148 1,182 1,216 15,514Project D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Project D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

• Budget planning is supported by a full roll-up of all current and potential missions


Summary

• Estimating resource requirements and service costs for modern multi-mission centers is a complex problem– Differing mission types

– Changing operational paradigms

– Expanding technological options

• A “cradle to grave” tool can simplify this process for operations center management and service teams by– Providing a flexible interface for specifying mission services and resources

– Providing capabilities for quick evaluation of “what-if” scenarios across multiple missions

– Providing individual resource roll-up across proposed and existing missions, with a comparison to available resources

– Providing an integrated roll-up of control center costs

– Integrating the process of understanding operations center costs with estimating resource and service costs for multiple missions


Summary (cont.)Service Catalog Input

($K???)

Project 1 TRUE 2 TRUE 3 TRUE 4 TRUEProject Name Project A Project B Project C Project D

Gold Level Service Bundle FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE TRUE



Ops/Data/Help Desk Support 0 24x7 0





Remote Sites 0 3 0

Silver Level Service Bundle FALSE FALSE TRUE TRUE



Ops/Data/Help Desk Support 0 0 8x5





Remote Sites 0 0 2

Basic Level Service Bundle TRUE FALSE FALSE TRUE



Ops/Data/Help Desk Support 8x5 0 0


Calculate Calculate Calculate Calculate

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

$ (K

)

Fiscal Year

Budget ProfileProject D

Project D

Project C

Project B

Project A

Total Current Mission Budget

Total Cost

CS

T

MO

ps

MW

EO

ps

Mda

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HD

8x5

HD

8x5E

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HD

24x7

HD

24x7

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Sys

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Sys

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Sw

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= >3= 2>x ≤3= 1>x ≤2= 0.5>x ≤1= -0.5>x ≤0.5= -1>x ≤-0.5= -2>x ≤-1= -2>x ≤-3= <-3

Labor Shortfall

Thank You

MISSION RESOURCE CAPABILITY ANALYZER


Date post:	05-Dec-2014
Category:	Technology
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Newhouse capability modeling v2

Technology