Consumer Price Index October 2017

Inflationary Trend (Headline CPI)

October 2017 Inflation

1 November 2017 Inflation rate in October 2017 rose by 0.86 percent (YoY). This was increased 4 months in a row from the higher in oil prices as OPEC group favors a nine-month extension to the OPEC/NOPEC production cut deal. causing the higher prices. Besides, there was the adjustment in prices of cigarettes and liquor according to the new tax structure as well as the increase in fresh vegetable prices caused by massive flooding in several areas include the vegetarian festival. Those resulted in average Inflation rate of the 10 months going up by 0.62 percent (AoA). For these reasons, Ministry of Commerce had remain adjusted the 2017 forecast at 0.4 -1.0 percent.

Division of Trade Information and Economic Indices. Trade Policy and Strategy Office.

Countries Inflation rates (Ave.Jan-Sep.17)

Inflation rate 0.4 – 1.0 (YoY)

GDPf 3.0 – 4.0 (YoY)

Dubai Oilf 45 – 55 USD/Barrel

Exchange Ratef 33.5 – 34.5 Baht/USD

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1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

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Singa

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Taiw

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Hong

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Chin

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Sout

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Indi

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Phill

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Viet

nam

Indo

nesia

Mal

aysia

0.59 0.6 0.70 1.4 1.5

2.1

2.91 3.1 3.80 3.91 4.0

Price level of goods and services in October 2017 increased by 0.16 percent (MoM). This was due to a 0.23 percent increase in Food and Non-alcoholic beverages category (fresh fruits and vegetables, milk and dairy products, non-alcoholic beverages, prepared food) as well as a 0.12 percent increase in Non - food and alcoholic beverages (housing rental, boat fare, motor fuel, cigarettes, liquor). Price movements are as follow ; Fresh fruits and vegetables increased by 2.70 percent such as

coriander, celery, morning glory, kale, chinese cabbage, chili, eggplant, longons, longans, mango, pineapple as it was rainy and those were perishable and it was during vegetarian festival.

Milk and diary products increased by 0.10 percent such as fresh milk, sweetened condensed milk, yoghurt milk.

Non-alcoholic beverages increased by 0.11 percent such as instant coffee, fruit juices, sugary water

Prepared food increased by 0.04 percent such as ready made curry, fried rice, curry with rice, ordered food

Housing rental increased by 0.02 Boat fare increased by 3.32 as Marine department has adjusted fare due

to the higher in oil price. Gasoline increased by 0.19 percent (Diesel, NGV) following the reduction

in production in world crude oil market. Tobacco and Alcoholic beverages increased by 3.44 percent such as

cigarettes, beers, wine and liquor from excise tax structure adjustment that was effective since 16 September 2017

Comparing with October 2016, prices went up by 0.86 percent (YoY) from the increase in fresh vegetable prices caused by massive flooding in several areas include the vegetarian festival gasoline retail prices which followed the world crude oil market, electricity, non-alcoholic beverages, prepared food, cigarettes and liquor mainly.

Average Inflation rate during Jan.-Oct.2017 compared with the same period last year increased by 0.62 percent (AoA).

Core Inflation for October 2017 increased by 0.09 percent (MoM) from September 2017 and by 0.58 percent (YoY) from October 2016. The average Core Inflation of the ten months of 2017 increased by 0.54 (AoA).

NEWS Release

Highlights

0.86

101.38

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

98.0

98.5

99.0

99.5

100.0

100.5

101.0

101.5

102.0

jan.16

Feb.

16M

ar.16

Apr.1

6M

ay.16

Jun.1

6Ju

l.16

Aug.1

6Se

p.16

Oct.1

6No

v.16

Dec.1

6jan

.17Fe

b.17

Mar

.17Ap

r.17

May

.17Ju

n.17

Jul.1

7Au

g.17

Sep.

17Oc

t.17

(%) YoY (2015=100)

-0.28

4.68

0.58

0.86

Core Inflation Energy

Fresh food Headline CPI

Inflation Projection 2017 (as of Oct.17)

กองสารสนเทศและดัชนีเศรษฐกิจการค้า

Consumer Price Index NEWS Release - October 2017

Consumer Price Index October 2017 Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of average change over time in the prices of consumer items—goods and services

that people buy for day-to-day living. CPI comprises of Food and Non-alcoholic beverages, Apparel and Footwear, Housing and

Furnishing, Medical and Personal care, Transportation and Communication, Recreation and Education, Tobacco and alcoholic

beverages divisions covering 422 items

Consumer Price Index of October 2017 can be described as the following:

1.Consumer Price Index of October 2017 (base year 2015) was 101.38 (September 2017=101.22)

2.The change in CPI of October 2017 comparing with

2.1 Comparing with September 2017 (MoM) increased by 0.16 percent. The percentage changes in each

category are shown in Chart 1

2.2 Comparing with October 2016 (YoY) increased by 0.86 percent. The percentage change in each

category are shown in Chart 2

Division of Trade Information and Economic Indices. Trade Policy and Strategy Office.

This was mainly due to Food and Non-alcoholic beverages category going up by 0.40 percent (YoY) such as fresh vegetables, longon, tinned fruit, instant coconut milk, tamarinds, ready made curry, delivery meal, ordered food. Housing and Furnishing category went up by 1.07 percent (house rent, electricity, LPG). Medical and Personal care category went up by 0.11 percent (drugs, out-patient medical care services, dental fees, blood test fees). Transportation and Communication category went up by 1.47 percent (gasoline, boat fare, car and motorcycle). Reading and Recreation category went up by 0.52 percent (travelling domestically and internationally). Tobacco and Alcoholic beverages category went up by 5.58 percent (cigarettes, beer, wine, liquor). While Apparel and Footwear category went down by 0.12 percent (women and children clothes, men and women shoes)

Period Change Percent

2.1 September 2017 (MoM) INCREASE +0.16

2.2 October 2016 (YoY) INCREASE +0.86

2.3 Average 10 months 2017 (AoA) (Jan.-Oct. 2017) comparing with (Jan.-Oct.2016)

INCREASE

+0.62

This was mainly due to Food and Non-alcoholic beverages category increasing by 0.23 percent (MoM) as the increase in vegetables and fruits of 2.70 percent such as coriander, celery, morning glory, kale, radishes, chili, eggplant, longon, longan, mango, pineapple resulting from massive flooding in several areas include the vegetarian festival. Milk and dairy products increased by 0.10 percent such as fresh milk, sweetened condensed milk, yoghurt milk. Non-alcoholic beverages increased by 0.11 percent such as instant coffee, fruit juices, sugary water. Prepared food increased by 0.04 such as ready made curry, fried rice, ordered food. Non-Food and Beverages category increasing by 0.12 percent (MoM) as the increase in housing rental of 0.04 percent, boat fare of 3.32 percent, Motor fuel of 0.19 percent following the world crude oil prices (diesel, NGV), as well as excise tax adjustment on cigarettes and liquor resulting in a 3.44 percent increase in Tobacco and Alcoholic beverages category

0.16

0.23

0.12

-0.06

0.04

0.00

0.04

-0.01

3.44

Headline CPI

Food and Non-alcoholicbeverages

Non-Food and berverages

Apparel and Footwear

Housing and Furnishing

Medical and Personal care

Transport and Communication

Recreation and reading

Tobacco and alcoholicbeverages

0.86

0.40

1.11

-0.12

1.07

0.11

1.47

0.52

5.58

Headline CPI

Food and Non-alcoholicbeverages

Non-Food and Beverages

Apparel and Footwear

Housing and Furnishing

Medical and Personal care

Transport and Communication

Recreation and reading

Tobacco and alcoholicbeverages

กองสารสนเทศและดัชนีเศรษฐกิจการค้า

Consumer Price Index NEWS Release - October 2017

2.3 Averaged 10 months (Jan. - Oct.2017 comparing with Jan. - Oct.2016) (AoA) increased by 0.62 percent.

The percentage change in each category are shown in Chart 3

3.Inflation forecasting (2017) Trade Policy and Strategy Office(TPSO) projected that inflation will be between 0.4-1.0 under these assumptions:

4. Impacting factors on inflation

Division of Trade Information and Economic Indices.Trade Policy and Strategy Office

CPI section. Division of Trade Information and Economic Indices. Trade Policy and Strategy Office. Ministry of Commerce. 563 Nonthaburi Road, Bangkrasor, Muang, Nonthaburi Call 02 507 5847 Fax 02 507-5825 Call Center 1203

www.price.moc.go.th

Assumptions Projection 1. Economic growth (%)

3.50

(3.0 – 4.0)

Continuous increase because of higher household expenditure and recovery in Export • Higher household expenditure following higher farmers income • Measure to support low income earners through national welfare card

reducing expenditure • Export expansion from recovery in the world market • Tourists member increase continuously • Government expenditure still the engine of growth

2. Dubai Oil Prices (USD / Barrel)

50.0

(45.0 - 55.0)

Demand for oil is higher according to the economic recovery • OPEC agreed on the limitation of oil production • Seasonal needs in winter and economic recovery • Political conflict in Middle East and natural disasters

3. Foreign exchange (Baht / USD)

34.0

(33.5 – 34.5)

Baht/USD tends to appreciate at the end of the year • Continuous capital flow from abroad • Current account surplus as foreign investors relieving worriness about

Thai political situation • Uncertainty of FED interest adjustment • Korean Peninsula situation

Supporting factors Risk factors

Demand from Household sector started to recover in line with production and farmers income as well as a measure to support low income earners through national welfare card reducing expenditure.

Uncertainty of major trading partners trade policies influenced on export

Export expansion from recovery in the world market and tourist figure increased continuously

World oil prices showed the upward trend affecting retail gasoline prices in the country as OPEC group favors a nine-month extension to the OPEC/NOPEC production cut deal

Government expenditure in the fiscal year 2017 Stability of US dollars and Asian currencies will benefit financial stability

This was mainly due to Non–Food and Beverages category going up by 0.99 percent as the increase in Transport and Communication category of 2.44 percent (gasoline such as Benzene 95, Diesel, Gasohol 91 95 E20 E85 NGV). Recreation and reading category increased by 0.56 percent (travelling expenses, educational expenses). Tobacco and Alcoholic beverages category increased by 2.42 percent (cigarettes, wine, liquor) as well as Medical and Personal care category increased by 0.29 percent (drug, personal care items). While Housing and Furnishing category decreased by 0.03 percent (electricity, cleaning supplies) as Food and Non – alcoholic beverages category decreased by 0.02 (rice, pork, eggs, vegetables, fruits)

0.62

-0.02

0.99

0.01

-0.03

0.29

2.44

0.56

2.42

Headline CPI

Food and Non-alcoholic beverages

Non-Food and Beverages

Apparel and Footwear

Housing and Furnishing

Medical and Personal care

Transport and Communication

Recreation and reading

Tobacco and alcoholicbeverages

กองสารสนเทศและดัชนีเศรษฐกิจการค้า

Consumer Price Index NEWS Release - October 2017

5. Table of CPI and Percentage change

* CPI deducting fresh food and energy Download news release in infographic at :

(2015 = 100)

CPI section. Division of Trade Information and Economic Indices. Trade Policy and Strategy Office. Ministry of Commerce. 563 Nonthaburi Road, Muang, Nonthaburi Call 02 507 5847 Fax 02 507-5825 Call Center 1203

www.price.moc.go.th

Items

Weight Oct.17

October 2017 September 2017

Index % Change Index % Change

Oct.17 Oct.16 M/M Y/Y A/A Sep.17 M/M Y/Y A/A

Headline CPI 100.00 101.38 100.52 0.16 0.86 0.62 101.22 0.58 0.86 0.59

Food and Non-alcoholic beverages 36.44 102.36 101.95 0.23 0.40 -0.02 102.13 0.70 0.06 -0.07

Rice, flour and cereal products 2.90 97.22 99.54 0.10 -2.33 -2.06 97.12 0.25 -2.46 -2.02

Meat, poultry and fish 6.55 101.39 101.92 -0.45 -0.52 -0.02 101.85 0.07 -0.51 0.03

Eggs and diary products 1.53 99.24 102.63 -1.39 -3.30 -2.02 100.64 0.61 -2.89 -1.88

Vegetables and Fruits 4.82 108.89 106.44 2.70 2.30 -2.92 106.03 5.00 -0.43 -3.50

- Fresh vegetables 1.99 111.72 102.94 6.17 8.53 -6.02 105.23 5.88 4.57 -7.58

- Fresh fruits 2.39 104.86 107.15 0.16 -2.14 -2.34 104.69 4.98 -4.52 -2.35

Seasoning and Condiments 1.71 101.21 101.10 -0.17 0.11 1.34 101.38 -0.12 0.11 1.47

Non-alcoholic beverages 1.72 101.23 100.83 0.11 0.40 0.90 101.12 -0.01 0.59 0.95

Prepared food at home 8.70 102.67 101.37 0.07 1.28 1.11 102.60 0.11 1.24 1.09

Food away from home 8.51 102.34 101.33 0.00 1.00 1.19 102.34 0.01 1.03 1.20

Non-food and beverages 63.56 100.84 99.73 0.12 1.11 0.99 100.72 0.50 1.32 0.98

Apparel and Footwear 2.85 100.36 100.48 -0.06 -0.12 0.01 100.42 0.00 0.11 0.02

Housing and Furnishing 22.89 99.73 98.67 0.04 1.07 -0.03 99.69 0.51 1.07 -0.15

Medical and Personal care 6.19 101.11 101.00 0.00 0.11 0.29 101.11 0.06 0.21 0.30

Transport and Communication 23.88 100.73 99.27 0.04 1.47 2.44 100.69 0.72 2.25 2.55

- Public transport services 2.04 100.00 99.80 0.05 0.20 0.11 99.95 0.00 0.15 0.10

- Motor Fuel 7.55 101.61 96.87 0.19 4.89 9.68 101.42 2.22 8.15 10.24

- Communication 4.25 99.93 99.97 -0.01 -0.04 -0.04 99.94 0.01 -0.03 -0.04

Recreation and reading 6.15 101.53 101.00 -0.01 0.52 0.56 101.54 -0.01 0.53 0.57

Tobacco and alcoholic beverages 1.60 119.85 113.52 3.44 5.58 2.42 115.86 1.94 2.06 2.06

Core Inflation * 72.70 101.53 100.94 0.09 0.58 0.54 101.44 0.09 0.53 0.54

Fresh food and energy 27.30 100.94 99.35 0.34 1.60 0.84 100.60 1.90 1.77 0.76

- Fresh food 15.80 102.43 102.72 0.49 -0.28 -1.44 101.93 1.58 -1.08 -1.57

- Energy 11.49 98.49 94.09 0.12 4.68 4.72 98.37 2.35 6.54 4.72

กองสารสนเทศและดัชนีเศรษฐกิจการค้า

Consumer Price Index NEWS Release - October 2017

A Brief Explanation of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation

Division of Trade Information and Economic Indices, Trade Policy and Strategy Office, Ministry of Commerce

is the organization compiling and disseminating Consumer Price Index (CPI) monthly. The objectives is to measure

cost of living of people as well as movement of prices in the form of “Inflation”. CPI has been developed

continuously and has rebasing every 4-5 years.

Recently, Committee of Indices compiling and developing which comprises of the senior advisors and

experts from both public and private sectors had consensus on rebasing CPI from 2011 to 2015 referring Economic

and Social of Households Survey of National Statistics Office to re-structure the expenditure in the basket of goods so

that index will be up to date relevant to consumption pattern as well as comply with the international standard.

Consumer Price Index base year 2015 covers 422 items (base year 2011 covered 450 items) including

7 categories of goods and services those are essential to the living of people : 1)Food and Non-alcoholic beverages

category 2)Apparel and Footwear category 3) Housing and Furnishing category 4)Medical and Personal services

category 5)Transportation and Communication category 6)Recreation and Reading category 7)Tobacco and

alcoholic beverage category. CPI is computed by comparing prices of goods over time to the base year which is

set as 100. However, households under this calculation are represented by household in metropolitan area with 1-5

people and 12,000-62,000 Baht/month wages in Bangkok and suburban areas and all 4 regions of Thailand in 43

provinces. 1

Headline Inflation is the measure of average change over time in the prices of consumer items-good and

services that people buy for day-to-day living (base year : 2015)

Core Inflation is the headline CPI deducted fresh food prices (which are fluctuated and seasonal) and

energy prices (which are not in control of Monetary Policy). The items left are subjected to market mechanism and

can be provided the fundamental inflation picture of Thai Economy

Core Inflation rate is the percent change in Consumer Price Index which calculate from headline CPI

deducted fresh food and energy prices.

In conclusion, CPI is to measure inflation of the economy which is one of the economic indicators. To

analyze, we will take all the factors those affect the prices into consideration such as the factors those has influence

on cost of production i.e. gasoline cooking

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1 43 provinces in the index computation are

Bangkok and suburban 1.Bangkok 2.Nonthaburi 3.Pathumthani 4.Samutprakan

Central region 5.Ayutthaya 6.Lopburi 7.Singhburi 8.Chonburi 9.Rayong 10.Chanburi 11.Prajeenburi

12.Ratchaburi 13.Supunburi 14.Petchburi 15.Prajuabkhirikun

Northern region 16.Nakhonsawan 17.Taak 18.Prae 19.Chiengmai 20.Chiengrai 21.Uttraladit 22.Pitsanulok

23.Petchaboon 24.Naan

North eastern region 25.Nakhonratchasima 26.Khonkaen 27.Surin 28.Ubonratchathani 29.Nongkai 30.Srisaket

31.Mookdahan 32.Udonthani 33.Roi-ed 34.Nakhonpanom

Southern region 35.Surathani 36.Nakhonsithannarat 37.Trang 38.Songkhla 39.Yala 40.Phuket 41.Krabi 42.Narathiwat

43.Ranong

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CPI section. Division of Trade Information and Economic Indices. Trade Policy Strategy Office. Ministry of Commerce. 563 Nonthaburi Road, Muang, Nonthaburi Call 02 507 5847 Fax 02 507-5825 Call Center 1203

www.price.moc.go.th