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NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology
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Page 1: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

NextGen and the Weather Information

Database

NextGen and the Weather Information

Database

Dec 5, 2008

Steve Abelman

Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology

Dec 5, 2008

Steve Abelman

Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology

Page 2: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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OverviewOverviewNextGen 101

What is the Weather Information Database (WIDB) and the Single Authoritative Source

Why NOAA?

What are we doing now

The roadmap ahead

A detailed roadmap to IOCLeveraging existing capabilities

Broader benefits to NOAA

Science Issues and the 4-D Cube

VA in the NextGen Paradigm

Summary

NextGen 101

What is the Weather Information Database (WIDB) and the Single Authoritative Source

Why NOAA?

What are we doing now

The roadmap ahead

A detailed roadmap to IOCLeveraging existing capabilities

Broader benefits to NOAA

Science Issues and the 4-D Cube

VA in the NextGen Paradigm

Summary

Page 3: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

3

NextGen 101NextGen 101

Page 4: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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NextGen 101NextGen 101

Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS)

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information

"A key finding, based on an analysis of several 2005-2006 convective events, is that as much as two-thirds of the weather related delay is potentially avoidable." -Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee; Report of the Weather-ATM Integration Working Group; Oct3, 2007

Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS)

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information

"A key finding, based on an analysis of several 2005-2006 convective events, is that as much as two-thirds of the weather related delay is potentially avoidable." -Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee; Report of the Weather-ATM Integration Working Group; Oct3, 2007

Page 5: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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NextGen 101NextGen 101

“The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as $41 billion for 2007.”

Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating costs by $19 billion.

Delays cost passengers time worth up to $12 billion.

Indirect costs of delay to other industries added roughly $10 billion to the total burden.

Your Flight Has Been Delayed Again; Congressional Joint Economic Committee; May 2008

“The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as $41 billion for 2007.”

Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating costs by $19 billion.

Delays cost passengers time worth up to $12 billion.

Indirect costs of delay to other industries added roughly $10 billion to the total burden.

Your Flight Has Been Delayed Again; Congressional Joint Economic Committee; May 2008

Page 6: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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NextGen 101NextGen 101

NextGen goals are not achievable without improving integration of weather information into decision support systems

NextGen weather vision (a major paradigm shift) is focused on:

Providing a multiple user common weather picture

Consistent and reliable weather information

An improved weather information data storage approach containing observation and forecast data (i.e., the WIDB or the “4 Dimensional Weather Cube”) enabling NextGen dissemination capabilities)

NextGen goals are not achievable without improving integration of weather information into decision support systems

NextGen weather vision (a major paradigm shift) is focused on:

Providing a multiple user common weather picture

Consistent and reliable weather information

An improved weather information data storage approach containing observation and forecast data (i.e., the WIDB or the “4 Dimensional Weather Cube”) enabling NextGen dissemination capabilities)

Page 7: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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NextGen 101;Key ThemesNextGen 101;Key Themes

An integrated and nationally consistent common weather picture for observation, analysis, and forecast data available to all system users

Direct integration of weather information into operational decision making processes

An integrated and nationally consistent common weather picture for observation, analysis, and forecast data available to all system users

Direct integration of weather information into operational decision making processes

Page 8: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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NextGen 101;Key ThemesNextGen 101;Key Themes

A Net-centric (net-enabled) capability is envisioned:

“Network Enabled”…

An information network that makes information available, securable, and usable in real time

Information may be pushed to known users and is available to be pulled by others

Weather information sharing is two-way

“Virtual” repository with no single physical database or computer

Conceptually unified source distributed among multiple physical locations and suppliers, of which NOAA is the leading data supplier

A Net-centric (net-enabled) capability is envisioned:

“Network Enabled”…

An information network that makes information available, securable, and usable in real time

Information may be pushed to known users and is available to be pulled by others

Weather information sharing is two-way

“Virtual” repository with no single physical database or computer

Conceptually unified source distributed among multiple physical locations and suppliers, of which NOAA is the leading data supplier

Page 9: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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NextGen Weather BasicsNextGen Weather Basics

TodayToday NextGenNextGen(new requirements)(new requirements)

Not integrated into aviation Not integrated into aviation decision support systems decision support systems (DSS)(DSS)

Inconsistent/conflicting on a Inconsistent/conflicting on a national scalenational scale

Low temporal resolution (for Low temporal resolution (for aviation decision making aviation decision making purposes)purposes)

Disseminated in minutesDisseminated in minutes

Updated by scheduleUpdated by schedule

Fixed product formats Fixed product formats (graphic or text)(graphic or text)

Totally integrated into DSSTotally integrated into DSS

Nationally consistentNationally consistent

High temporal resolutionHigh temporal resolution

Disseminated in secondsDisseminated in seconds

Updated by events Updated by events

Flexible formatsFlexible formats

Page 10: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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What is the WIDB?What is the WIDB?

The WIDB (aka the 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube) will contain:

Continuously updated weather observations (surface to low earth orbit, including space weather and ocean parameters)

High resolution (space and time) analysis and forecast information (conventional weather parameters from numerical models)

Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013)Turbulence

Icing

Convection

Ceiling and visibility

Wake vortex

The WIDB of the future will contain “all” weather data, not just aviation parameters.

The WIDB (aka the 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube) will contain:

Continuously updated weather observations (surface to low earth orbit, including space weather and ocean parameters)

High resolution (space and time) analysis and forecast information (conventional weather parameters from numerical models)

Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013)Turbulence

Icing

Convection

Ceiling and visibility

Wake vortex

The WIDB of the future will contain “all” weather data, not just aviation parameters.

Page 11: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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What is the 4-D WeatherSingle Authoritative Source?

What is the 4-D WeatherSingle Authoritative Source?The 4-D Wx Single Authoritative Source (SAS):

Is only a portion of the WIDB

Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, DoD, FAA, etc.)

Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA

Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy

The 4-D Wx Single Authoritative Source (SAS):

Is only a portion of the WIDB

Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, DoD, FAA, etc.)

Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA

Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy

Page 12: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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The WIDB:A Conceptual ModelThe WIDB:A Conceptual Model

WIDB

CustomGraphic

Generators

CustomGraphic

Generators

Integration into User DecisionsIntegration into User Decisions

DecisionSupportSystems

DecisionSupportSystems

CustomAlphanumeric

Generators

CustomAlphanumeric

Generators

ObservationsObservationsNumericalModelingSystems

NumericalModelingSystems

StatisticalForecasting

Systems

StatisticalForecasting

Systems

NWSForecaster

NWSForecaster

ForecastingForecasting

Automated ForecastSystems

Automated ForecastSystems

Forecast IntegrationForecast Integration

4D WxSAS

RadarsRadars

AircraftAircraft

SurfaceSurface

SatellitesSatellites

SoundingsSoundings

Page 13: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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Why NOAA?Why NOAA?

NOAA/NWS, through the JPDO’s Senior Policy Committee, has committed to build the WIDB for NextGen Weather

NWS AA has echoed this commitment to Congress

NOAA/NWS, through the JPDO’s Senior Policy Committee, has committed to build the WIDB for NextGen Weather

NWS AA has echoed this commitment to Congress

Page 14: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

14

Why NOAA?Why NOAA?

NOAA is the most logical integrator and operator of this data cube based on its:

Extensive experience with data ingest and assimilation

Ownership of major observation and modeling capabilities

Experienced meteorological workforce

Legislative mandate to provide weather to the FAA

Existing related capabilities such as AWIPS and NDFD

NOAA is the most logical integrator and operator of this data cube based on its:

Extensive experience with data ingest and assimilation

Ownership of major observation and modeling capabilities

Experienced meteorological workforce

Legislative mandate to provide weather to the FAA

Existing related capabilities such as AWIPS and NDFD

Page 15: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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Why NOAA?Why NOAA?

“NOAA stands ready to accept the role as the Office of Primary Responsibility for Weather Information Services as this responsibility is core to NOAA’s mission, and we are confident that [the IWP] will enable us to better align NOAA’s weather portfolio with NextGen”

Mary Glackin; April 7, 2008

“NOAA stands ready to accept the role as the Office of Primary Responsibility for Weather Information Services as this responsibility is core to NOAA’s mission, and we are confident that [the IWP] will enable us to better align NOAA’s weather portfolio with NextGen”

Mary Glackin; April 7, 2008

Integrated Work Plan Defines Our RoleIntegrated Work Plan Defines Our Role

Page 16: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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So What’s Happening Now?So What’s Happening Now?

Multi-agency Subject Matter Expert teams have put together reports on the 4-D Cube which address:

Policy issues - scope, roles and responsibilities, cost apportionment

Functional Requirements: an initial set of requirements for the 4-D Wx SAS (still a living document with updates expected). Performance requirements work (how good is good enough) has begun as well

NextGen Integrated Work Plan (IWP) v1.0, also a living document

Weather Working Group and Sub-teams

Multi-agency Subject Matter Expert teams have put together reports on the 4-D Cube which address:

Policy issues - scope, roles and responsibilities, cost apportionment

Functional Requirements: an initial set of requirements for the 4-D Wx SAS (still a living document with updates expected). Performance requirements work (how good is good enough) has begun as well

NextGen Integrated Work Plan (IWP) v1.0, also a living document

Weather Working Group and Sub-teams

More info on these JPDO initiatives available More info on these JPDO initiatives available www.jpdo.govwww.jpdo.gov

Page 17: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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So What’s Happening Now?So What’s Happening Now?

Other multi-agency initiatives:

NextGen Network Enabled Weather (NNEW) IOC Development Team

Environmental Information Team – What’s in the Cube

IT and Enterprise Services Team – Cube “plumbing”

Live Demonstrations

Other multi-agency initiatives:

NextGen Network Enabled Weather (NNEW) IOC Development Team

Environmental Information Team – What’s in the Cube

IT and Enterprise Services Team – Cube “plumbing”

Live Demonstrations

Page 18: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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The Roadmap AheadThe Roadmap Ahead

Initial Operational Capability (2013)

Integrated environmental information sources

Meteorologist oversight of gridded data

Common data standards and protocols

Initial integration of diverse weather elements into decision support tools

Intermediate Capability (2016)

Improved modeling and science enables higher resolution more accurate information

Full Network compatibility of environmental information

Direct integration of weather into Air Traffic Management Systems

Full Operational Capability (2022)

All NextGen requirements met and benefits achieved

High resolution, nested scale forecasts available for all elements

Full network connectivity ensures consistent information use across service areas and user groups

Initial Operational Capability (2013)

Integrated environmental information sources

Meteorologist oversight of gridded data

Common data standards and protocols

Initial integration of diverse weather elements into decision support tools

Intermediate Capability (2016)

Improved modeling and science enables higher resolution more accurate information

Full Network compatibility of environmental information

Direct integration of weather into Air Traffic Management Systems

Full Operational Capability (2022)

All NextGen requirements met and benefits achieved

High resolution, nested scale forecasts available for all elements

Full network connectivity ensures consistent information use across service areas and user groups

Page 19: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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The Roadmap AheadThe Roadmap Ahead

Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS)

Extremely popular aviation weather web service

Not just a display capability

Already has many NextGen data service capabilities

Data service easily capable of supporting the standards and protocols envisioned with NextGen

Has existing capability to support 4D data cube

Slices, dices, and returns a subset of data (flight paths or subset cubes)

Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS)

Extremely popular aviation weather web service

Not just a display capability

Already has many NextGen data service capabilities

Data service easily capable of supporting the standards and protocols envisioned with NextGen

Has existing capability to support 4D data cube

Slices, dices, and returns a subset of data (flight paths or subset cubes)

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/http://adds.aviationweather.gov/

Page 20: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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The Roadmap AheadThe Roadmap Ahead

National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

Could be called the “SAS” of public weather forecast mission

Net-centric approach

Need to add aviation parameters in the vertical

Logistically very complicated if to be populated by each WFO

National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

Could be called the “SAS” of public weather forecast mission

Net-centric approach

Need to add aviation parameters in the vertical

Logistically very complicated if to be populated by each WFO

Page 21: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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The Roadmap AheadThe Roadmap Ahead

Interactive Calibration of Aviation Grids in 4 Dimensions (IC4D)

Aviation weather research community (NCAR) now producing 4-D (x, y, z, t) gridded guidance for parameters such as turbulence and icing (RUC2-based)

operational forecasters may be able to add skill to the forecast guidance

Interacting with a 4-D data set containing multiple parameters presents a huge challenge, operationally

Alaska AAWU working with IC4D and has provided positive feedback

Interactive Calibration of Aviation Grids in 4 Dimensions (IC4D)

Aviation weather research community (NCAR) now producing 4-D (x, y, z, t) gridded guidance for parameters such as turbulence and icing (RUC2-based)

operational forecasters may be able to add skill to the forecast guidance

Interacting with a 4-D data set containing multiple parameters presents a huge challenge, operationally

Alaska AAWU working with IC4D and has provided positive feedback

Page 22: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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The Roadmap AheadThe Roadmap Ahead

Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP)

Hourly updates of GFS MOS data for aviation

Uses hourly observations (METAR, lightning, and radar data) to update MOS guidance

Statistically outperforming persistence and MOS during early forecast periods

Currently have gridded probabilistic thunderstorm forecasts

Moving toward other gridded products, including probabilistic ceiling height and visibility forecasts

Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP)

Hourly updates of GFS MOS data for aviation

Uses hourly observations (METAR, lightning, and radar data) to update MOS guidance

Statistically outperforming persistence and MOS during early forecast periods

Currently have gridded probabilistic thunderstorm forecasts

Moving toward other gridded products, including probabilistic ceiling height and visibility forecasts

Page 23: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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The Roadmap AheadThe Roadmap AheadAuto-nowcaster

a program to determine the role of the forecaster in providing value-added enhancements to automated, gridded aviation convective products

goal is to improve the consistency, reliability, and accuracy of 0-2 hour convective forecast products for automated aviation weather digital products (4-D grids) for the NAS

being considered in 2009 as part of a multi-agency NextGen demo in Florida

Auto-nowcaster

a program to determine the role of the forecaster in providing value-added enhancements to automated, gridded aviation convective products

goal is to improve the consistency, reliability, and accuracy of 0-2 hour convective forecast products for automated aviation weather digital products (4-D grids) for the NAS

being considered in 2009 as part of a multi-agency NextGen demo in Florida

Page 24: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

24

4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits to NOAA

4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits to NOAA

Aviation driven consistency and accuracy requirements will improve all NWS services

Consistency challenges not unique to aviation

More accurate public forecasts because of aviation driven high resolution modeling requirements

Improved severe weather lead times because of aviation driven convective forecasts

Implements “Warn on Forecast” technologies

Aviation driven consistency and accuracy requirements will improve all NWS services

Consistency challenges not unique to aviation

More accurate public forecasts because of aviation driven high resolution modeling requirements

Improved severe weather lead times because of aviation driven convective forecasts

Implements “Warn on Forecast” technologies

Page 25: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits to NOAA

4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits to NOAA

Improved access to all NWS products and services via the cube

Supports automated decision assistance tools for other agencies and entities beyond FAA

IT and Data Management enhancements

Establish a central repository and access for critical NWS products and services beyond aviation

Support GEOSS requirements

Enhances continuity of operations

Extends the AWIPS enterprise services into a ‘system of systems’ linking AWIPS, MADIS, NDFD, CCS and NEXRAD

Improved access to all NWS products and services via the cube

Supports automated decision assistance tools for other agencies and entities beyond FAA

IT and Data Management enhancements

Establish a central repository and access for critical NWS products and services beyond aviation

Support GEOSS requirements

Enhances continuity of operations

Extends the AWIPS enterprise services into a ‘system of systems’ linking AWIPS, MADIS, NDFD, CCS and NEXRAD

Page 26: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

26

Science Issues and the 4-D Wx Data CubeScience Issues and the 4-D Wx Data Cube

Consistency

Convective Modeling – Warn of Forecast

Model Enhancements and Improvements

Verification

Consistency

Convective Modeling – Warn of Forecast

Model Enhancements and Improvements

Verification

Page 27: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

27

The “Consistency” IssueThe “Consistency” Issue

The FAA requirements consider consistency and accuracy

Consistency Challenges:

Spatial

Internal

“Representativeness”

The FAA requirements consider consistency and accuracy

Consistency Challenges:

Spatial

Internal

“Representativeness”

Page 28: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

28

The “Consistency” IssueThe “Consistency” Issue

Today our forecasts can send conflicting information to our customers:

Public:

This Afternoon: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. West wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Aviation:KXXX 271723Z 271818 17007KT P6SM FEW090 BKN140 FM2000 28010KT P6SM VCTS BKN040CB BKN100 FM0100 32012KT P6SM SCT035 BKN100…

Today our forecasts can send conflicting information to our customers:

Public:

This Afternoon: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. West wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Aviation:KXXX 271723Z 271818 17007KT P6SM FEW090 BKN140 FM2000 28010KT P6SM VCTS BKN040CB BKN100 FM0100 32012KT P6SM SCT035 BKN100…

Page 29: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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The “Consistency” IssueThe “Consistency” Issue

Forecaster produced products, required by the FAA, include AIRMETs and SIGMETs in the upper right. Comparing these products to operationally approved supplemental products, like the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) regularly yields results that conflict.

NextGen requires rapidly updated, higher resolution products like GTG, but how will it compare to the AIRMET/SIGMET?

Forecaster produced products, required by the FAA, include AIRMETs and SIGMETs in the upper right. Comparing these products to operationally approved supplemental products, like the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) regularly yields results that conflict.

NextGen requires rapidly updated, higher resolution products like GTG, but how will it compare to the AIRMET/SIGMET?

Page 30: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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Convective ModelingConvective Modeling

Aviation requirements are demanding higher resolution models

Convection in the short term time frame (0-2 or 4 hours) is key

Resolution requirements based on

Terminal – within 100km radius of an airport, aka Super Density Operations (SDO)

Enroute – within the National Airspace System (NAS), aka Trajectory Based Operations (TBO)

Global – outside the NAS

Examples of resolution requirements are detailed on the next slides. These requirements need additional user validation and should not be considered “final”

Aviation requirements are demanding higher resolution models

Convection in the short term time frame (0-2 or 4 hours) is key

Resolution requirements based on

Terminal – within 100km radius of an airport, aka Super Density Operations (SDO)

Enroute – within the National Airspace System (NAS), aka Trajectory Based Operations (TBO)

Global – outside the NAS

Examples of resolution requirements are detailed on the next slides. These requirements need additional user validation and should not be considered “final”

Page 31: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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Model Enhancements and ImprovementsModel Enhancements and Improvements

Production Timelines – (Estimate…not a final product!)

Terminal (SDO)Terminal (SDO) Non-Terminal (TBO)Non-Terminal (TBO)

GlobalGlobal

ConvectiveConvective Other WxOther Wx ConvectiveConvective Other WxOther Wx

0-15 min0-15 min 1 min

15 min1 hour 1 hour

15-45 min15-45 min 5 min

45 min - 2 hrs45 min - 2 hrs 10 min

1 hour2-4 hrs2-4 hrs 15 min

4-60 hrs4-60 hrs 1 hour 1 hours

60hrs-14 60hrs-14 daysdays 3 hours 3 hours 3 hours 3 hours 6 hours

ClimatologyClimatology TBD

Note: Climatology = 15-90 days. No Temporal Resolution has been specified.

Page 32: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

32

Model Enhancements and Improvements

Model Enhancements and ImprovementsProduction Timelines - (Estimate…not a final product!)

TerminalTerminal Non-Terminal (TBO)Non-Terminal (TBO) GlobalGlobal

ConvectiveConvective Other WxOther Wx

Refresh Refresh RateRate LatencyLatency RefreshRefresh LatencyLatency RefreshRefresh LatencyLatency RefreshRefresh LatencyLatency

0-2 hrs0-2 hrs 5 min 5 min 7.5 min 7.5 min 30 min 30 min Every 3 hrs 60 min

2-4 hrs2-4 hrs 7.5 min 7.5 min 30 min 30 min 30 min 30min Every 3 hrs 60 min

4-10 hrs4-10 hrs 30 min 30 min 60 min 30 min 60 min 30 min Every 3 hrs 60 min

10-24 hrs10-24 hrs Every 3 hrs 30 min Every 3

hrs 60 min Every 3 hrs 60 min Every 3

hrs 120 min

24-26 hrs24-26 hrs Every 6 hrs 60 min Every 6

hrs 90 min Every 6 hrs 90 min Every 6

hrs 120 min

60hrs-14 days60hrs-14 days Every 24 hrs

2 hrs after model run

time

Every 24 hrs

2 hrs after model run

time

Every 24 hrs

2 hrs after model run

time

Every 24 hrs

2 hrs after model run

time

ClimatologyClimatology Monthly One Day Monthly One Day Monthly One Day Monthly One Day

Page 33: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

3333

VerificationVerification

NextGen suggests verification schemes that measure operational impacts

Move away from traditional verification methodology like PoD and FAR

An example is the Weather Impact Traffic Index, WITI

Measures efficiency of the NAS operation, but weather is only one factor

Factors in airport capacity, time of day, traffic corridor, etc…

NWS/FAA is collaboratively working on the “Terminal Forecast WITI” which is a forecast of the NAS operation at a terminal or a corridor

GSD also working on the Network-Enabled Verification Service (NEVS)….

NextGen suggests verification schemes that measure operational impacts

Move away from traditional verification methodology like PoD and FAR

An example is the Weather Impact Traffic Index, WITI

Measures efficiency of the NAS operation, but weather is only one factor

Factors in airport capacity, time of day, traffic corridor, etc…

NWS/FAA is collaboratively working on the “Terminal Forecast WITI” which is a forecast of the NAS operation at a terminal or a corridor

GSD also working on the Network-Enabled Verification Service (NEVS)….

Page 34: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

3434

NextGen and VANextGen and VA

So how will NextGen and the WIDB incorporate VA information?:

Gridded data forecasts?

Probabilistic information?

Observation systems?

VA in the WIDB at IOC?

So how will NextGen and the WIDB incorporate VA information?:

Gridded data forecasts?

Probabilistic information?

Observation systems?

VA in the WIDB at IOC?

Page 35: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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SummarySummary

NextGen will require significant changes in the way weather information is produced

The NextGen paradigm suggests that most weather information will be assimilated into decision support tools and the decision making process

NOAA has been designated as the Office of Primary Responsibility (OPR) to build and deploy a 4-D Weather Data Cube (WIDB) by IOC (2013) and beyond

Even though NOAA is the OPR, multi-agency teams are working all the issues involved with the cube

The FAA is leading the Integration effort and this is just getting started

NextGen will require significant changes in the way weather information is produced

The NextGen paradigm suggests that most weather information will be assimilated into decision support tools and the decision making process

NOAA has been designated as the Office of Primary Responsibility (OPR) to build and deploy a 4-D Weather Data Cube (WIDB) by IOC (2013) and beyond

Even though NOAA is the OPR, multi-agency teams are working all the issues involved with the cube

The FAA is leading the Integration effort and this is just getting started

Page 36: NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve.

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SummarySummary

There are many existing initiatives that will be leveraged/expanded on as we move toward the initial WIDB and/or the 4-D Wx SAS

The WIDB will clearly have benefits to NOAA and the NWS beyond aviation

There are many important science issues, including consistency, model resolution, observation strategies, and verification which must be addressed as we move toward a comprehensive 4-D Wx Cube

There are many existing initiatives that will be leveraged/expanded on as we move toward the initial WIDB and/or the 4-D Wx SAS

The WIDB will clearly have benefits to NOAA and the NWS beyond aviation

There are many important science issues, including consistency, model resolution, observation strategies, and verification which must be addressed as we move toward a comprehensive 4-D Wx Cube


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