This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. © 2012 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Andrew Rowsell-Jones

Vice President and Research Director

CIO and Executive Research Group

Gartner Inc.

Nexus Of Forces; IT Technology Trends; IT Impact On Business

The Nexus of Disruptive Forces

Circles of Influence

Pervasive Access

Global-Class Delivery

Big Data

How CIOs Are Responding To The Nexus of Forces

CIO Technologies

Ranking 2011 2010 2009 2008

Ranking of technologies CIOs selected as one of their top five priorities in 2012.

* Not an option in that year

2012

Number = 2,335

Analytics and Business Intelligence 1 5 5 1 1

Mobile Technologies 2 3 6 12 12

Cloud Computing (SaaS, IaaS, PaaS) 3 1 2 16 *

Collaboration Technologies (workflow) 4 8 10 5 8

Legacy Modernization 5 7 11 4 4

IT Management 6 4 10 * *

CRM 7 18 * * *

ERP Applications 8 13 6 2 2

Security 9 12 9 8 5

Virtualization 10 2 1 3 3

Social Media/ Web 2.0 11 10 3 15 15

2

Nexus

The Nexus of Disruptive Forces

Nexus

3

Analytics and Business Intelligence Markets Continue to Grow

BI, Analytics and Performance Management

Revenue, Worldwide, 2009-2014, (USD billons)

4

Information Storage Is Approaching a Point of Inflection

5

Cost of Storing versus Cost of Discovering Digital

Waste, 2010-2020

SKF's Shift From Component Producer to Knowledge Engineering Partner

Source: SKF 6

The Nexus of Disruptive Forces

Nexus

7

Customers, Employees and Citizens are Going Mobile

Global Mobile Device Shipments Forecast 2012 Through 2015

Mobile PC

Tablet

Smartphone

Feature phone 0.5 billion

1 billion

1.5 billion

2 billion

2.5 billion

3 billion

3.5 billion

2012 2013 2014 2015

Devices

8

Mobile Device Battles: Microsoft’s Big Bet With Windows 8

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Microsoft Smartphone

Smartphone and Tablet Market Share Forecast 2012 - 2016 (percent)

Android Smartphone

Android Tablet

iOS Smartphone

iOS Tablet

Microsoft Tablet

Banc Sabadell: Customer-focused Media Tablets Drive Sales

•Focused efforts on four areas:

- B2C Encouraging customers’ use of tablets

to access bank services (100,000’s of

users)

- B2C Using tablets with personal bankers to

help them sell (150 users)

- B2E Using tablets with bank executives to

distribute and manage board papers (20

users)

- B2C Using of tablets with branch based

reps (thousands of users). 10

The Nexus of Disruptive Forces

Nexus

11

Cloud Continues To Grow Strongly

12

0.

50.

100.

150.

200.

250.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Public Cloud Services End-User Spending by Segment 2010-2016 (billions USD)

TOTAL

Cloud Business Process Services (BPaaS) Total

Cloud Application Services (SaaS) Total

Cloud System Infrastructure Services (IaaS) Total

Cloud Management and Security Services Total

Cloud Application Infrastructure Services (PaaS) Total

Source: Forecast: Public Cloud Services, Worldwide, 2010-2016, 3Q12 Update, 24 September 2012, G00238928

When do you estimate that your organization will support more than half of your transactions on a cloud infrastructure?

2010 2011 – 2015 2016 – 2020 + Never

3% 43% 31% 23%

13

Kiip: A Radical New Take on Marketing

14

The Nexus of Disruptive Forces

Nexus

15

Social Media: An Opportunity for Growth, Customer Engagement and Cost Reduction

Source: Thomas Crampton, http://www.thomascrampton.com/china/social-media-china/

58% of organizations use social media

20% have a dedicated budget

23% use social analysis tools

7% integrated social with marketing

21% preparing to launch efforts

Social Media, Essential for Customer Engagement, is at a Tipping Point

Flippant Fearful

Folly Forging

Fo

rmu

latin

g

Fusing

17

Doing Planning

Social Media, Essential for Customer Engagement, is at a Tipping Point

18

9% 19% 24% 28% 13% 7%

Flippant Fearful

Folly Forging

Fo

rmu

latin

g

Fusing

Friendsurance - an Innovative Insurance Model to Lower Cost and Risk

Premium Premium Payback

of up to 50%

Small

Claims

Big

Claims Insurance Companies

Sarah

Savings 30% -

50%

Fees with normal contract

Fees with Friendsurance

Fraud

Risky behavior

Small claims

Sales

Big claims

Admin

Source: Friendsurance 19

Vis

ibili

ty

THE GARTNER HYPE CYCLE

What To watch For

20

2012 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle

21

Technology Trigger

Peak of

Inflated Expectations

Trough of Disillusionment

Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of

Productivity

time

expectations

Plateau will be reached in:

less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years

obsolete

before plateau

As of July 2012

Human Augmentation

Quantum Computing

3D Bioprinting

Volumetric and Holographic Displays

Automatic Content Recognition

Hybrid Cloud Computing

Autonomous Vehicles

Mobile Robots

Internet of Things

Natural-Language Question Answering Silicon Anode Batteries

Speech-to-Speech Translation

Crowdsourcing

Gamification Big Data

HTML5

Wireless Power BYOD Complex-Event Processing Social Analytics

Private Cloud Computing

Augmented Reality In-Memory Database Management Systems

Application Stores

Activity Streams NFC Payment

Internet TV

Audio Mining/Speech Analytics

NFC Cloud Computing Machine-to-Machine Communication Services Mesh Networks: Sensor

Gesture Control

Mobile OTA Payment

Media Tablets

3D Scanners

Consumerization

Biometric Authentication Methods

Idea Management

Consumer Telematics

Speech Recognition

Predictive Analytics

3D Printing

In-Memory Analytics

Hosted Virtual Desktops

Text Analytics

Home Health Monitoring

Virtual Worlds

Recommendations

22

• Consider the whole technology nexus when innovating

• Focus on your entire business model

• Plan for the non-technical aspects of innovation

• ‘Borrow innovation’ from adjacent industries and activities

Related Gartner Research

Amplifying the Enterprise: The 2012 CIO Agenda Mark McDonald, Dave Aron (G00230429)

Technology Trends That Matter Steve Prentice (G00212538)

iPad and Beyond: The Media Tablet in Business David A. Willis (G00229639)

Hype Cycle for Mobile Device Technologies, 2012 Tuong Huy Nguyen and Carolina Milanesi (G00234209)

The Internet of Things Is Coming John Mahoney and Hung LeHong (G00219075 The Five Styles of 'Free': Emerging Business Models Threaten Significant Disruption Steve Prentice (G00211588)

Hadoop and MapReduce: Big Data Analytics Marcus Collins (G00208798)

How Flash Memory in Servers Delivers Higher Value as a Uniquely Addressable Memory Type Carl Claunch (G00218040

For more information, stop by Gartner Solution Central or email us at solutioncentral@gartner.com.

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. © 2012 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Andrew Rowsell-Jones

Vice President and Research Director

CIO and Executive Research Group

Gartner Inc.

Nexus Of Forces; IT Technology Trends; IT Impact On Business