©NIDEA 1

Natalie Jackson

What is on a [New Zealand] demographer’s mind?

Professor of Demography, Director, National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA)

Presentation to Demography/Actuarial Science Workshop , Victoria University of Wellington, 26th June 2013

Global demographers –

Population Ageing

Empirical research

Population Policy ±

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What is on a demographer’s mind? A worldwide survey

• Hendrik P. van Dalen, Kene Henkens 2012, Demographic Research, 26, 16, 363-408– 970 demographers around the globe

• Population ageing 30%*• Large scale migration flows 14%*• HIV/AIDS 13%• Above-replacement fertility 12%• Urbanisation 12%*• Infant mortality 10%• Women’s reproductive rights 7%• Population decline 2%*

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What is on a [New Zealand] demographer’s mind?

• Population ageing– Migration flows– Urbanisation– Regional Decline

• Empirical research– How to measure /project ethnicity / COB– How to measure /project fertility– How to project migration

• Population Policy (PANZ, tomorrow)

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Population ageing.. Is it so straightforward?

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

1961

percentage at each age

Male Fe-male

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

2011

percentage at each age

Male Female

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What Population Ageing [really] means. A phenomenon in four dimensions

• Numerical Ageing – Increase in numbers of elderly (primarily caused by

increased life expectancy - and in-migration of retirees)

• Structural ageing– Increase in proportions of elderly (primarily caused by

low/falling birth rates – and out-migration of young adults)

• Natural decline– More elderly than children more deaths than births

• Absolute decline– Inability of ‘replacement migration’ to replace the ‘lost’ births and

increased deaths (migration gain/loss acclerates the ‘problem’)

Some critical distinctions

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Population ageing – the big picture.. What does it mean for ‘population stability’; ‘stationarity’?

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Key concepts

• Stable population – Closed to migration, unchanging age-sex structure, size

increases/decreases at a constant rate (births > deaths; vice-versa)– Implausible, needs revision to incorporate migration

• Stationary population– Closed to migration, unchanging age-sex structure, ZPG..– Assumes long run replacement level fertility (2.1 births per woman)– Assumes crude birth rate = crude death rate – Implausible, no reason why TFR should magically settle at 2.1

• Reality..– Most populations reaching the end of growth have gone straight

through to depopulation– Depopulation begins sub-nationally– Increasingly driven by interaction between hyper-ageing (>20% 65+

years) and migration flows

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0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

Kapiti Coast 2012 (1996 Unshaded)

percentage at each age

Male Fe-male

65+ yrs: 21.2% … 25.4%

Old form of population decline

• Net migration loss, typically 20-39 years > natural increase

New form of declineNet migration loss 20-39 yrs+Fertility Decline+Net migration gain at older ages +Natural DeclineHow to measure contributing factors?

A new set of dynamics

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So.. 7 Billion and Counting. Yes, but..

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The end of growth is on the horizon

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0-4 5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90+

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140New Zealand - Projected change by age (%) (MEDIUM)

2011-2021 (8.9%)2011-2031 (17.9%)

Perc

enta

ge C

hang

e

Ageing-driven growth is not the same as youth-driven growth

Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)-2061

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Ageing-driven growth is finite

MDCs (58)Medium Series

65+ Years All other age groups combined

2011-2021(2.9%)

25% -1.3%

2011-2031(4.6%)

49% (+98 million)

-3.9%(-41million)

US Census Bureau International Database: More Developed Countries by age and sex

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Ageing-driven growth – most of New Zealand

Total NZMedium Case

65+ Years All other age groups combined

2011-2021(8.9%)

40.3% 4.1%

2011-2031 (17.9%)

88.5% 7.1%

Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)-2061

2/3 of New Zealand’s growth 2011-2031 expected to be at 65+ years

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New Zealand will have more elderly than children within 13 years

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

7

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

0-14

65+Num

ber

Projected

Statistics New Zealand Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (2012 Update)

Already crossed over in 10 (15%) TAs

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Auckland RegionWellington Region

Gisborne RegionTotal New Zealand

Waikato RegionOtago Region

Canterbury RegionSouthland Region

Nelson RegionHawke's Bay Region

Manawatu-Wanganui Region*West Coast Region

*Tasman RegionTaranaki Region

Bay of Plenty Region*Northland Region

*Marlborough Region

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Percentage of each Regional Council area aged 65+ years (1996 and 2011)

19961996-2011

Percentage aged 65+ Years

Ageing - and the speed of ageing - differs across the country

*4 RCs Already have fewer labour market ‘entrants’ than ‘exits’

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• Nationally 66% of growth will be at 65+ years (23% past 15 years)

• 84% (56) TA’s will have more than 100 per cent of ‘growth’ at 65+ years; all are projected to experience overall decline at 0-64 years

• 1996-2011 32 TAs (48%)

Next 20 years:

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It matters a lot..36% of New Zealand’s TA’s already in absolute decline

How can we assist in modelling this?

When will the sum of regional trends tip the national trend towards unavoidable ZPG?

Key indiator/thresholds approach

Does it matter?

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18

Key Ageing Indicators (New Zealand)67 TA’s 1996 2011 2031

Number / Percentage65+ years (%) 11.5% 13.3% 21.3%

More elderly than children 0 11 (16%) 52 (91%)

Fewer LM entrants than exits 5 (7%) 26 (36%) 47 (70%)*

Reproductive Age Pop (25-44yrs) <20% of total population

0 7 (10%) 11 (16%)

Natural Decline 0 1 (1.5%) 16 (25%)

???

Statistics New Zealand, Estimated Usual Resident Population; National Population Projections 2012 Update Medium Variant (50th percentile)

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Percentage TAs with fewer labour market entrants than exits

Observed Projected

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 20310

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

6.8

27.4

35.6 35.6

68.5

83.6 80.8

69.9

Perc

enta

ge

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012 update)

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More elderly than children (% NZ Territorial Authority Areas)

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 20310

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.03.0 4.5

16.4

40.3

61.2

76.1

91.0

Perc

enta

ge

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012 update)

ProjectedObserved / ERP

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Measuring Ethnicity.. What does it mean for key indicators – the TFR? Projections? Can we do this better yet?

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New Zealand pays much attention to the issue

• Four census questions–Ethnic Group - affiliation–Language – conversant in Māori–Descent – ‘blood’–Iwi – identification

• also Country of Birth

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Population by age, sex and ethnicity* (c.2011) -1

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89

8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

Māori

percentage at each age

Male Fe-male

Median age 23.1

0-4 5-9

10-1415-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89

8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

European/New Zealander

percentage at each age

Male Female

Median age 39.7

*Stats New Zealand Multiple Count

Highly disparate age structures

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Population by age, sex and ethnicity (c.2011) -2

0-4 5-9

10-1415-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89

8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

Pacific Island

percentage at each age

Male Fe-male

Median age 21.7

0-4 5-9

10-1415-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89

8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

Asian

percentage at each age

Male Female

Median age 29.8

*Stats New Zealand Multiple Count

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1996 2001 2006

Total without multiple count 3,732,000 3,880,500 4,184,500

Summed TOTAL NZ pop 4,090,270 4,221,900 4,582,150

Total Ethnic 'overcount' (%) 9.6 8.8 9.5

Ethnic ‘Over-count’ – which approach is best?Of the 565,329 people identifying with Māori ethnicity at the 2006 Census, 47 per cent (266,934) also identified with non-Māori ethnicities

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The Total Fertility Rate- Do we need an ethnic-

weighted rate?- A Country-Of-Birth

weighted rate?

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ASFR, TFR and Reproductive Age Groups by Ethnicity* c.2011

ASFRs

15-19 25.82

20-24 72.73

25-29 104.37

30-34 121.57

35-39 71.27

40-44 14.77

45-49 0.79

TFR 2.05445-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

European/Other MaoriPacific Peoples Asian

*Stats NZ Multiple Count Ethnicity

How does use of un-weighted ASFR affect our

projections?

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European/Other Maori Pacific Peoples Asian0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 64.9

14.5

7.313.3

57.9

15.59.5

17.2

Perc

enta

ge

Ethnic* share of reproductive age group 2011, 2026

*Stats NZ Multiple Count Ethnicity

2011 2016

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Life Expectancy• How ‘rectangularised’ can we

get?• How far can life expectancy

realistically extend?

Migration• Should the projection

assumption be a constant number, or a rate?

• Constant number may prove correct if competition for migrants increases

• ???0 1836547290

0102030405060708090

100

1934-38 (68.5 Years)1950-52 (71.3 years)1970-72 (74.6 years)1990-92 (78.7 years)2005-07 (82.2 Years)

Age

Perc

enta

ge s

urvi

ving

(lx)

75%

There are plenty of issues to keep a NZ demographer’s mind busy..

90% to age 65

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• Thankyou

• natalie.jackson@waikato.ac.nz• www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea