KEY OCCASIONS - IRELAND
NIELSEN SPRING 2014 REPORT
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KEY OCCASIONS
EVENT DATE
Pancake Tuesday Tuesday 4th March 2014
Mother’s Day Sunday 30th March 2014
Easter Sunday 20th April 2014
Valentines Day Friday 14th February 2014
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NIELSEN SPRING REVIEW SOURCING
DATA SOURCING Total Scantrack ROI (Mults / Grps / Forecourts) + Discounters * - Total Store Read – Multiples ROI + Discounters Total Store Read is the complete store read for Multiple retailers, and includes categories such as Deli, Produce, Fresh Meat and Poultry, In store bakery, Newsagency, Horticulture, Mobile, & Durables. (All items with a *)
% of volume sold on promotion – Multiples ROI only
TIME PERIODS Valentines Day 2013: 1 week data to FEB 17.13 Valentines Day 2014: 1 week data to FEB 16.14 V 1 week data to FEB 09.14 Pancake Tuesday 2013: 1 week data to FEB 17.13 Pancake Tuesday 2014: 1 week data to MAR 09.14 V 1 week data to MAR 02.14 Mothers Day 2013: 1 week data to MAR 10.13 Mothers Day 2014: 1 week data to MAR 30.14 V 1 week data to MAR 23.14 Easter 2013: 1 week data to MAR 31.13 Easter 2014: 1 week data to APR 20.14 V 1 week data to APR 13.14 NB: The data included in this presentation is a view of the market at a specific point in time at a total market level and does not take promotional activity into consideration.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Valentines Day • Discounters & Forecourts perform well
for Valentines as overall sales for Valentines increase slightly
• We are still treating our loved ones to the typical gifting option for Valentines day but have moved to cheaper alternatives.
Pancake Tuesday • Pancake Tuesday categories decline yoy
with the exception of the Pancake fillings • People opt for convenience as pre-made
mix performs against cooking from scratch options
• Traditional pancake fillings are key
Mother’s Day • Sweet treats perform well, but mothers
day does not impact on grocery or alcohol overall
• Flowers, chocolates, champagne and cream liquor all perform well for Mother’s Day
• Home baking performs better than home cooking
Easter • Easter eggs and novelty increase year on
year • Weather impacts retail sales for Easter
week • Traditional Easter Sunday lamb still
performing well
Valentine’s Day 2015 - Saturday, February 14th Pancake Day 2015 - Tuesday, February 17th
Mother’s Day 2015 - Sunday, March 15th Easter 2015 - Sunday, April 5th
(Total Scantrack ROI + Discounters) / (* - Total Store Read – Multiples ROI + Discounters
All Fresh / chilled products) / (% of volume sold on promotion – Multiples ROI only)
VALENTINES DAY 2014
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KEY TAKE OUT’S
Impact on Sales for Valentines Week 2014 • Value increasing slightly week on week and year on year, and Units are increasing week on
week. Romance • We are still treating our loved ones to the typical gifting option for Valentines day but have
moved to cheaper alternatives;
• Standard flowers and chocolates instead of roses. Cooking • While the weather on Valentines was “slightly stormy”, the data suggests that consumers
opted to stay in and create a home cooked meal. With meat, vegetables and desserts all increasing week on week.
• We opted to drink more bottles of wine and less sparkling year on year with the preference being Chilean wine.
• People made the most of Valentines falling on the weekend as cooked breakfast items increased significantly week on week and year on year.
Valentines Day 2014 fell on a Friday!
(Total Scantrack ROI + Discounters) / (* - Total Store Read – Multiples ROI + Discounters
All Fresh / chilled products) / (% of volume sold on promotion – Multiples ROI only)
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VALENTINES WEEK Forecourts and discounters win value share of trade for Valentines 2014
SOURCE: NIELSEN STRATEGIC PLANNER - Total Scantrack ROI + Discounters + Dunnes + Spec Off Lic
59.5 59.0 55.9
15.6 16.3 19.6
15.0 14.9 14.2
8.8 8.5 8.9
1.2 1.3 1.4
Valentine Week 2012 Valentine Week 2013 Valentine Week 2014
Value Share of Trade
MULTIPLES + DUNNES DISCOUNTERS ROI SYMBOL GROUPSFORECOURTS ROI SPEC OFF ROI
49.6 44.2 39.3
20.3 21.9
20.9
11.3 14.2 18.1
12.2 12.8 14.1
6.7 7.0 7.6
Valentine Week 2012 Valentine Week 2013 Valentine Week 2014
Volume Share of Trade
MULTIPLES + DUNNES SYMBOL GROUPS DISCOUNTERS ROI
SPEC OFF ROI FORECOURTS ROI
Discounters ROI value share of Trade for the
latest MAT is 18.3%
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ROMANCE ISN’T DEAD…. Sales for 2014 suggest we are still treating our loved ones on Valentines Day! Valentines Week
2014 V’s 2013 % Chg
Valentines Week V’s Previous Week % Chg
Flowers, Roses*
Assortments
Flowers, All Other*
Greetings cards*
Champagne
Sparkling wines
Candles*
-14.6%
+17.9%
+10.2%
+9.8%
+0.6%
-0.6%
+119.1%
+1,202.1%
+215.6%
+205.1%
+140.1%
+130.8%
125.0%
+97.7%
Hangover remedies
Condoms/lubricants
Skincare/moisturising care
Hair styling aids
Depilatory creams
-21.0%
+23.7%
+34.6%
-9.1%
-9.4%
+234.3%
+20.9%
+20.4%
+3.9%
+3.7%
Gifts…
Personal Care
(Total Scantrack ROI + Discounters) / (* - Total Store Read – Multiples ROI + Discounters
All Fresh / chilled products) / (% of volume sold on promotion – Multiples ROI only)
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COOKING AT HOME…. Valentines week shows an increase in sales of products to make an easy, home cooked (or at least home prepared!) meal…but some products failed to grow YOY Valentine’s Week
2014 V’s 2013 % Chg Valentines Week
V’s Previous Week % Chg
Soup pouch Olives* Pate*
+1.6% -14.7% +6.6%
+13.5% +6.5% +5.1%
Chilled meat* Chilled packaged fish* Chilled ready to eat fish/ seafood*
+12.9% -18.5% -18.3%
+40.2% +20.1% +7.0%
Total vegetables* Top performing for valentines; Beans* Brussels sprouts* Carrots* Asparagus*
-14.9%
-0.2% +29.7% -6.7% +4.7%
+3.8%
+25.8% +14.8% +11.9% +8.7%
Dry sauces/ casserole mix Chilled pasta sauce Herbs
+2.9% +13.2% -4.9%
+3.1% +3.1% +2.7%
Appetiser…
Meat…
Vegetables…
A bit of flavour…
(Total Scantrack ROI + Discounters) / (* - Total Store Read – Multiples ROI + Discounters
All Fresh / chilled products) / (% of volume sold on promotion – Multiples ROI only)
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Valentines Week 2014 V’s 2013 % Chg
Valentines Week V’s Previous Week % Chg
Chilled desserts Chocolate spreads Cream (double)* Defined frozen desserts
-20.2% -55.1% -0.1% +4.1%
+26.7% +26.2% + 23.1% +15.1%
THERE WAS STILL ROOM FOR DESSERT …
Buy something sweet…
Powdered baking products Baking decorations (edible)* Solid baking products Baking decorations (non-edible)
-59.9% -2.8% +7.7%
+13.2%
+32.6% +29.3% +22.1% +5.7%
Or make it yourself…
(Total Scantrack ROI + Discounters) / (* - Total Store Read – Multiples ROI + Discounters
All Fresh / chilled products) / (% of volume sold on promotion – Multiples ROI only)
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WHAT WE DRANK…..
Valentines week 2013 vs. Valentines week 2014 (Val % chg)
Chile & France account for over 35% of value of total wine sales during Valentines week 2014.
+43.6% yoy
+16.0 yoy
Valentines week 2013 vs. Valentines week 2014 (Val % chg)
Sparkling wine is flat YOY in value terms, but the top selling varietals for Valentines week were….
CAVA +134.4%
PROSECCO +45.9%
We drank more wine this Valentines day with Chilean Wine the clear favourite and Sparkling remaining flat yoy.
Total Alcohol %VOD
increased by 5% in 2014
Total Wine %VOD
increased by 20% in 2014
(Total Scantrack ROI + Discounters) / (* - Total Store Read – Multiples ROI + Discounters
All Fresh / chilled products) / (% of volume sold on promotion – Multiples ROI only)
43.5 42.0
29.8 32.1
9.8 10.0 9.2 9.0 6.0 5.2
1.6 1.5
2013 2014LARGER & NABLAB TOTAL WINE SPIRITS
CIDER & PERRY STOUT & ALE SPARKLING WINES
CHAMPAGNE
-1.4
2.3
0.2
-0.2
-0.8
-0.1 -0.0
Unit % Share / Share Change
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Valentines Week
2014 V’s 2013 % Chg
Valentines Week
V’s Previous Week % Chg
Deli Butcher Rashers * +37.1% +64.8%
Grapefruit* +43.9% +40.1%
Strawberries* -0.3% +13.9%
Black/White Pudding +9.7% +8.4%
Pre-packed sausages +16.4% +6.6%
Instant/ground coffee +6.3% +5.3%
Pre-packed bacon -2.4% +3.9%
BREAKFAST IN BED Valentines week 2014 saw an increase of sales in breakfast products, especially in the convenience sector…
Breakfast treats…
Convenience shopping at forecourts…
Pre Packed Sausages +12.1% +9.6%
Pre Packed Bacon +5.7% +4.6%
Morning Goods -21.1% +3.5%
(Total Scantrack ROI + Discounters) / (* - Total Store Read – Multiples ROI + Discounters
All Fresh / chilled products) / (% of volume sold on promotion – Multiples ROI only)
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SO WHAT….
• Remember Valentines 2015 will be a Saturday. This gives people the opportunity to celebrate it over the weekend, giving them more time for preparation.
• Consumers are still willing to spend money on Valentines Day gifting, but the celebrations itself is as important;
• cooking a meal
• sharing a bottle of wine
• Valentines Day is still very stereotypical, with flowers and chocolates performing strongly. Ease and convenience are key for the consumer.
PANCAKE TUESDAY 2014
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Pancake Week 2014 V’s 2013 % chg.
Pancake Week V’s Previous Week % chg.
PRE MADE MIX
Total Pancake Mix -2.5% +94.49
Liquid Pancake Mix -9.9% +340.7%
Powdered Pancake Mix -2.2% +86.6%
COOK FROM SCRATCH
Flour -2.8% +24.5%
Eggs -0.1% +6.3%
Milk +6.0% +1.6%
PANCAKE TUESDAY Convenience is key; pre-mix out performs cooking from scratch but Pancake Tuesday categories decline yoy.
Pancakes….
Pancake Filling…..
Pancake Week 2014 V’s 2013 % chg.
Pancake Week V’s Previous Week %
chg.
Chocolate Spread +10.7% +40.8%
Fresh Lemons & Limes* +6.6% +21.3%
Honey +5.2% +15.4%
Jam +3.4% +11.1%
Sugar -4.0% +3.1%
Total Fresh Berries* +28.3% +1.8%
Blackberries / Raspberries / Strawberries / Blueberries
Liquid Pancake Mix hold 4% of value sales of
Total Pancake Mix
(Total Scantrack ROI + Discounters) / (* - Total Store Read – Multiples ROI + Discounters
All Fresh / chilled products) / (% of volume sold on promotion – Multiples ROI only)
MOTHER’S DAY 2014
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Sweet treats perform well, but mothers day does not impact on grocery or alcohol overall
-2.2 -2.9
-5.1
2.4
-1.3 -1.5
Confectionary Grocery Alcohol
Mothers Days wk 2014 vs. Mothers Day wk 2013 % chg.
Mothers Days wk 2014 vs. previous wk % chg.
Total Flowers*
Mothers Days wk. 2014 vs. Mothers Day
wk. 2013 % chg.
Mothers Days wk. 2014 vs. previous
wk. % chg.
-9.2% +346.7%
Assortments -1.5% +176.0%
Top 3 winning categories for week of Mothers Day 2014 & 2013…
MOTHERS DAY
Home baking more than home cooking?
Baking Products (Powdered/liquid/ solid)
2014 vs. 2013
Mothers days wk. vs
previous
Cake decorations:
-2.9% +12.1%
-1.0% +4.6%
Chilled RW Meat*: -23.5% +2.1%
Potatoes*: -35.1% +0.7%
Onions*: -12.4% +0.1%
(Total Scantrack ROI + Discounters) / (* - Total Store Read – Multiples ROI + Discounters
All Fresh / chilled products) / (% of volume sold on promotion – Multiples ROI only)
2014 2014 V’s 2013 % Chg Mothers Day Wk V’s Previous Wk % Chg
2013 2013 V’s 2012 % Chg Mothers Day Wk V’s Previous Wk % Chg
Champagne -28.9% +36.1% Cream Liqueurs -32.0% +46.6%
Sparkling Wine -6.8% +21.8% Gin +28.3% +43.5%
Cream Liqueurs -31.8% +20.2% Champagne -6.3% +43.0%
EASTER 2014
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KEY TAKE OUT’S Impact on Sales Easter Week 2014
Confectionary • Total confectionary declining year on year for Easter 2014. Easter eggs show a
slight value increase but volume continues to decline. • Novelty increasing significantly year on year. Good Friday • Fish is declining year on year, but alcohol has increased as well as snacks such as
crisps and dips. Weather • Easter weekend was on average 6Oc hotter in 2014 than 2013, and as a result BBQ
products increased by 779%.
Easter Sunday • Lamb with mint sauce, and turkey with cranberry sauce are the key winner for the
Easter Sunday roast
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-5.1
9.6
-8.0
4.1
Easter Week2014 V 2013
% Chg
Easter WeekV Previous
Week
Easter Week2014 V 2013
% Chg
Easter WeekV Previous
Week
Value Volume
TOTAL CONFECTIONERY
-12.8
75.7
-13.9
53.0
Easter Week2014 V 2013 %
Chg
Easter Week VPrevious Week
Easter Week2014 V 2013 %
Chg
Easter Week VPrevious Week
Value Volume
TOTAL PRALINES
EASTER CONFECTIONARY
Total Confectionary in decline for the week of Easter 2014 v’s 2013, -5.1% in
value. With volume declining at a faster rate.
Total Confectionary has increased week
on week 2014, with an increase of +9.6% value for Easter Week.
Total Pralines in decline for the week of Easter 2014 v’s 2013, -12.8% in value. With volume declining at a faster rate.
But significantly increases for Easter
Week v’s the previous week 2014 with value growth of +75.7%
(Total Scantrack ROI + Discounters) / (* - Total Store Read – Multiples ROI + Discounters
All Fresh / chilled products) / (% of volume sold on promotion – Multiples ROI only)
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1.9
176.4
-1.8
123.5
Easter Week2014 V 2013
% Chg
Easter WeekV Previous
Week
Easter Week2014 V 2013
% Chg
Easter WeekV Previous
Week
Value Volume
TOTAL EASTER EGGS
18.5
200.4
25.1
187.1
Easter Week2014 V 2013
% Chg
Easter WeekV Previous
Week
Easter Week2014 V 2013
% Chg
Easter WeekV Previous
Week
Value Volume
TOTAL NOVELTIES
EASTER CONFECTIONARY
Novelties increasing significantly in value and volume year on year and
week on week for Easter 2014. +200.4% in value.
Total Easter Eggs showing a slight value increase v’s 2013 with a growth of
+1.9% as volume continues to decline.
Significant growth week on week as over 50% of the value is sold through in
Easter Week.
(Total Scantrack ROI + Discounters) / (* - Total Store Read – Multiples ROI + Discounters
All Fresh / chilled products) / (% of volume sold on promotion – Multiples ROI only)
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EASTER EGGS
Easter Eggs
+1.9% in 2014 in val
Easter Eggs
-1.8% in 2014 in vol
EASTER EGG VALUE TREND WEEKLY
44.3 45.5
Easter Wk 2013 Easter Wk 2014
EASTER EGGS - VOLUME SOLD ON PROMOTION
Over 75% of the
Easter Egg volume is sold in the 2 weeks up
to Easter Sunday
The average
€/Kg of an Easter Egg
has increased by +4.8% in 2014
(Total Scantrack ROI + Discounters) / (* - Total Store Read – Multiples ROI + Discounters
All Fresh / chilled products) / (% of volume sold on promotion – Multiples ROI only)
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15 16
12 12 14
13 15
15.4.14 16.4.14 17.4.14 18.4.14 19.4.14 20.4.14 21.4.15
Ave Temp (DA) in Celsius
WEATHER IMPACTS EASTER SALES…. BBQ products show a significant increase in Easter 2014 as the weather heats up….
5 4
3 4 4
6 5
25.3.13 26.3.13 27.3.13 28.3.13 29.3.13 30.3.13 31.3.13
Ave Temp (DA) on Celsius
Easter 2013
Easter 2014
DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE @ DUBLIN AIRPORT
Easter Week 2014 V 2013 % Chg
Easter Week V Previous Week
BBQ Products (Disposable BBQ/Utensils/Charcoal)* +779.1% +889.0%
Frozen Prepared Quarter Pounders +108.6% +18.4%
Pre Packed Sausages +3.7% +15.4%
BBQ Sauce +63.1% +28.8%
Tomato Ketchup -1.8% +11.1%
Buns / Rolls / Baps +23.2% +8.8%
Pre Packed Salad +19.2% +11.5%
(Total Scantrack ROI + Discounters) / (* - Total Store Read – Multiples ROI + Discounters
All Fresh / chilled products) / (% of volume sold on promotion – Multiples ROI only)
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Total Alcohol Volume 9.1% 28.6%
Easter Week 2014 V 2013 % Chg
Easter Week V Previous Week
Chilled Fish* -2.7% +43.1 %
Frozen Fish -0.3% +22.1%
GOOD FRIDAY TRADITIONS Fish still popular in Easter week, but down compared to last year. Whereas alcohol purchase has increased.
Fish
Prepared/ Savoury Dips +11.3% +12.1%
Total Crisps +0.3% +9.3%
Total Snacks +0.5% +8.0%
Sharing Bags +2.8% +19.7%
Volume % on promotion
Easter Week 2013 – 70.4% Easter Week 2014 – 65.3%
Alcohol
Snacks
Top 3 Alcohol Categories for
Easter Week 2014 on Promo
1. Table Wine – 70% 2. Vodka – 68.3% 3. Gin - 67.3%
% chg. vs Easter 2013
+0.2% +10.0% +20.2%
Alcohol
(Total Scantrack ROI + Discounters) / (* - Total Store Read – Multiples ROI + Discounters
All Fresh / chilled products) / (% of volume sold on promotion – Multiples ROI only)
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EASTER SUNDAY - ROAST DINNER Turkey was the dinner of choice for Easter Sunday followed by Lamb…
Easter Week 2014 V 2013 % Chg
Easter Week V Previous Week
Smoked Salmon* +2.6% +56.6%
Pate* -20.1% +11.8%
Total Soup -34.9% -6.9%
Chilled RW Turkey* +7.4% +164.5%
Chilled RW Lamb* -10.8% +136.0%
Chilled RW Beef* -21.1% +9.0%
Chilled RW Pork* -20.3% +5.5%
Chilled RW Chicken* -8.4% -0.2%
Pre packed Stuffing -0.1% +60.1%
Total Fresh Vegetables* -10.0% +10.9%
Total Frozen Vegetables -13.8% +8.2%
Mint Sauce / Jelly -5.0% +184.6%
Cranberry Sauce -7.8% +146.1%
Stock & Gravy Mixes -17.2% +8.7%
Meat…
Appetiser…
Sides
A bit of flavour…
(Total Scantrack ROI + Discounters) / (* - Total Store Read – Multiples ROI + Discounters
All Fresh / chilled products) / (% of volume sold on promotion – Multiples ROI only)
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SO WHAT…. • NPD is key: new products are driving the success of Easter novelty
items. • Timing is key: 75% of Easter egg volume is sold in the 2 weeks leading
up to Eater Sunday. • Advertising is key: with lamb and turkey showing significant growth
for the Easter Sunday roast, both being featured in key retailers advertising in the run-up to Easter Sunday.
• Weather is key: weather significantly impacts retail sales. With the first good weekend of the year falling at Easter we see consumers opting for outdoor cooking.
For more information please contact our Dublin Office at +353-1-469-0400