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• The Macro Backdrop for Spending – Improved
• Unemployment and Spending—The Relationship • The Importance of the Big Spenders • The Pricing Story – Perceptions vs. Reality • What’s Hot, What’s Not – A Look at Spending Trends
• Leading Indicators – What are they Saying? • Holiday Spending Outlook • Retail Sales Outlook
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2
Strong Profitability Leads to Stronger Capital Spending and With a Lag
More Hiring
First Decision
Second Decision
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3
Examples of the Past Relationship Between the Profit Cycle and Hiring – No Different Than Today!
4
Waiting for the Unemployment Rate to Drop? Spending Related to Change in Unemployment
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6
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7
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8
Source: Goldman Sachs Survey, September 15, 2010.
11.4%
88.6%
0.0%
More of the
Same
10
Source: Goldman Sachs Survey, September 15, 2010.
70.5%
27.3%
2.3%
Overwhelming View of
Improved Margins
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12
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8
14
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9
15
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10
17
18
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19
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21
22
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23
24
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25
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Holiday Sales
27
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29
Notice: This presentation is based on information ICSC believes reliable. However, ICSC cannot guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any damages arising out of its use. All proprietary materials and analysis are copyrighted. © 2010
