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Coordination:
Jean Charles CLANET
Andrew OGILVIE
Niger Basin Focal Project
Chiang Mai workshop, 18 September 2009
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Country Basin size per country (km²)
Proportion of basin within country (%)
Proportion of country within basin (%)
Benin 44,967 3,5 38,7
Burkina Faso 86,919 6,8 31,5
Cameroon 86,381 6,8 18,4
Côte d’Ivoire 23,550 1,9 7,3
Guinea 98,095 7,7 39,9
Mali 263,168 20,7 20,9
Niger 87,846 6,9 7,4
Nigeria 562,372 44,2 61,5
Tchad 19,516 1,5 1,5
TOTAL Active Basin
1,272,814 100 -
Large transboundary basin
• 4183 km
• 2.1 M km² / 1.2 M km²
• 10 countries
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Spanning range of agroclimatic zones
From <50mm in North to >4500mm in South
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Evolution of Niger Basin population 2005-2050 according to various UN DESA scenarios
384 036 651
246 388 996
215 273 326
94 506 856
186 656 464
-
50 000 000
100 000 000
150 000 000
200 000 000
250 000 000
300 000 000
350 000 000
400 000 000
450 000 000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Population
Constant-fertility variant
High variant
Medium variant
Low variant
Prone to extreme demographic expansion
Population density(Source: D Kaczan based on SEDAC data)
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Due to high fertility
• Future population trends willdepend on speed of fertilitydecrease and HIV/AIDS prevalence
Sources: Tabutin and Guengan
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Subject to extreme poverty
• 8 in Low development category UNDP HDI
• Generalised poverty where education, roads, electricity, health, water sector are underdeveloped
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Often regarded as water poor
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
0
100
200
300
J M M J S �
700450
0
100
200
300
J M M J S �
1050900
0
100
200
300
J M M J S �
12001100
0
100
200
300
400
J M M J S �
17001350
0
100
200
300
J M M J S �
730520
Mean annual rainfall (average 1951-1990),
and monthly rainfall for wet and dry years
WP2: Rainfall distribution
• Uneven water distribution
– Significant rainfall in South and up to 13° N
– Quarter of basin under Sahel and Semi-arid climate
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Rainfall variability
• Seasonal and inter-annual variations
• Recent drought and future uncertainties
Cartographie SIG, C. Dieulin, 2009, IRD/ HSM
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Impact on river flows
• Peculiar hydrology
• 3 major « châteaux
d’eau » in South of
basin
Source: Marquette, Zwarts et al, FAO
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Main Niger sub-basins and annual hydrographs
for wet and dry years
A
B C
DE
F
Discharges in m3/s
Advances in basin hydrology
• Ability to
predict
changes in
flow from
rainfall
predictions
• Impact of
dams,
climate
change,
land use
change etc
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Hydrogeology…
• Large uncertainties
over GW reserves
• 5-50 mm/year GW
recharge depending
on location and land
use
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Towards water accounting
Gretp1984.shp00 - 1742217422 - 2122821228 - 2554725547 - 31439
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Water use: green water
• Substantial rainfall
(except North)
• But short and erratic
rainy season
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
WP3: Blue water use and irrigation
• Blue water largely
under-exploited
• Irrigation largely
under-developed
• Reliance on rainfed
agriculture
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Irrigation zones and systems
• Irrigation along river
• Inner Delta
• Nigeria dams, fadamas,
Sokoto
• Small dams
• Recession flood
• Lowlands
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Nigeria’s greater control over water
• Nigeria as leader in
dam construction
and irrigation
390500972 5007500028150034000total
49 50018 500220009000basfonds subm cont
85 00085000submers cont
795 000723 0001200060000décrue
850045004000agroindust
3000030000petit privé
215700161 700500004000PIV individuel
1400080006000PIV collectif
1250095003000PIV publique
15250069 00013000625008000grands périmètres
totalNigeriaNigerMaliBurkina types de périmètres
Source (Association Régionale de l'Irrigation et du Drainage en Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre 2004)
FAO 1992 et JICA 1993 pour le Nigéria
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Vast potential for irrigation
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
WPr of selected irrigation zones
200
pomme de terre,
oignon0,064,51999588Burkina Faso
T3Titao
Oignon1,2040,01974366SénégalT4Mbawane
Oignon0,0820,01966326SénégalT4Keur Mbir Ndao
200Niébé0,0717,01997334NigerT2Mbida
200choux, poivron, laitue0,16200,01980526NigerT4Gamkale
125oignon, tomate1,0046,01981382NigerT2Tera
180Oignon0,203,61992379NigerT3Sakoira
200Riz1,001260,01970943Burkina FasoT1Vallée du Kou
200Riz1,00680,01974910Burkina FasoT1Nakambe/ bagre
Riz1,70262,01991250SénégalT1Boundoum
100Riz12,00298,01950553MaliT1Djidian
151Riz20,00576,71951383MaliT1B1
100Riz2,5035,02001410MaliT3Saba 1
100Riz1,0049,01997449MaliT2Sinah
Riz0,4116,01994451MaliT2Kamaka
200Riz1,00227,01991756NigerT1Lata
intensité
culturale %Culture principale
Superficie
moyenne par
exploitant (ha)
Superficie
équipée(en ha)Date de réalisation
Pluviométrie
moyenne annuelle Pays fleuvesTypologie APPIA
Nom des
périmètres
WPr of market gardening activitivies and riceSource: APPIA
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
WPr in wet and dry season
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Kamaka B1 Sinah Djidian N10 Saba1 Bargodaga Lata
Irrigation Schemes
Yield (kg)
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
Water Productivity (kg/m3)
Irrigated inflow (m3)
Yield (Kg)
WP (Kg/m3)
0.0
5000.0
10000.0
15000.0
20000.0
25000.0
30000.0
35000.0
B1 N10 Sakoira Tera Gamkale Mbida
Irrigation Scheme
Gross Valur Product/ Irrigation inflow
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Water productivity ($/m3)
Irrigation inflow (mm/ha)
Gross Value Product ($/ha)
WP ($/m3)
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
1600.0
1800.0
2000.0
B1 N10 Sakoira Tera Gamkale Mbida
Irrigation Scheme
I rrigation (mm/ha)
Evapotranspiration (mm/ha)
0.0
500.0
1000.0
1500.0
2000.0
2500.0
3000.0
Bargodaga Kamaka Sinah Saba1 Djidian B1 N10 Lata
Irrigation Scheme
Gross Inflow (mm/ha)
Evapotranspirat ion (mm/ha)
Wet season Dry season
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
1999, good year
Leached soilsHeavy rainfallRainfed cereals = marginal cropsMajor crops = lowland rice
kg grain per ton applied water: Intercepted rainfall
Rainfed Water productivity
• Maps of rainfed WPraccording to CPWF definition
• Difficult/dangerous to interpret
=> return to theory
kg grain per ton depleted water:
Evapotranspirable water
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
• Within context of increasing strain on water resources need to ensure water is used efficiently and to produce most value (food, energy, water supply, environment)
� strive to increase total utility of water (increase/better water depending activities, save water and assign it to activities showing a deficit). In agriculture, “more crop per drop”
• Rainfed agriculture differs somewhat as rain is not necessarily the limiting factor, even in Sahel (Breman and Cissoko, 1998)
• Rainfed agriculture also faces two constraints:
– cannot reduce applied water (the rainfall is an environmental data );
– cannot try to reduce depleted water (actual ET is an environmental function which controls the moisture and rain parameters (Monteny and Casenave, 1989)
• To increase the direct utility of the rain one can only improve the rainfed production process
– where rain falls in excess, reduce its noxiousness;
– where it falls insufficiently, improve its efficiency (RUE);
– if rain is adequate, reduce the other limiting factors
Increasing rain utility
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Measuring direct utility of rain
• Rain is a necessary condition to rainfed production but not necessarily a (limiting) factor
• WProd does not inform the level of utility of rain in general, and must be reserved for activities where water is really a factor (such as irrigation, or rainfed in arid zone).
• In rainfed agriculture, this rain utility can be measured in various indicators:
– Average yield : productivity of the “rain field” (= land) assigned to rainfed crop
– Average food production per rural capita (allows to judge satisfaction of the needs, and labour productivity)
– Population living of rain resources (human production of the " rain field")
– Land use assigned to the rainfed crops
– Rain-use efficiency (RUE) when the rain is a limiting factor
•very low rainfed land
use in Guinea and arid
zone (<5%) rainfed =
marginal activity
• relatively low global
rainfed land-use (<15%)
• some districts in
Niger, and Nigeria >25%
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Rain as a limiting factor
Savanna grass production becomes
dependent to variations in rainfall
above 10°N (below 800mm)
(Fournier 1991).
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
rainfall of the year (mm)
max. phytomass (t MS/ha)
perennial grass, slope, latitude
11-12°N
perennial grass, slope, latitude
6-9°N
t de céréales par habitant rural
-
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0,35
0,40
0,45
0,50
sahélien<500 soudanosahel500-600mm
nord soud600-800
centresoudanien800-1000
sudsoudanien>1000 mm
1984 1986 1988 1994Usual droughts (1986):no effect if zone >800mmsmall effect 500-800mmgreat effect <500mm= (insufficiency)
Heavy droughts (1984)great effect <1000mm(insufficiency)
FS
(Cereal ton/capita)
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
RUE when rain is limiting factor
• Relevant in areas of rainfall under 600mm for pearl millet, 700 mm for sorghum (at the
beginning of cycle), 800 m for maize, 900 mm for tubers, 1000 mm for rice (approximately).
• How to measure it?
Actual ET is not an universal water index, as dependent on ETP and ETM � Prod/ETa is not
relevant RUE index
RUE index: water satisfaction index: actual ET/potentiel ET or a better water indicator
(IRESP). The higher the water index, the higher the yield
RUE index: relative yield (actual yield/potential yield) at a standard deficit (IRESP 0,5 or
actET/potET 0,75)
Water index
IRESP, ActualET/potential ET
IRESP
0
Relative yield
1
1
0
System B System A
0,5
• Increase RUE by
1) increasing water
satisfaction index (= reduce
deficit = synchronising offer
and demand)
2) increasing relative yield in
case of water index <1, and
reducing drought resistance
(minimising actual ET of zero
yield)
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Inner Delta fisheries
y = 36,637e0,0093x
R2 = 0,9629
0
5000
10000
15000
0 200 400 600 800
Hauteur d'eau à la station de Mopti (cm)
Surface
inondée
(km2)
Delta amont (Juilet à octobre 1995)
0
20
40
60
80
100
500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Inflow Mopti (m3/s, July-November)
Total catch
(tonsx1000)
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Abstraction of some volume to the river flood decreases the fish catch,
about 28 tonnes/y for 1 m3/s during the flood period.
Fish marketed in Mopti ( t; t+1) according to flood index (t)
y = 157.47x - 483
R2 = 0.72
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Flood index (in days)
Data for 1988-2005 from Mali administration, processed by CP 72
Marginal WPr in Inner Delta fisheries
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Constraints to livelihood in fisheries
socio economic environment of poor countries
(school, health, domestic water, credit)
poor productive assets
sometimes a lack of landuse rights
environmental change
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Fisheries in the Niger basin
• Major drivers of change:
– changes in hydrologic regime
• rainfall variability and climate change,
• construction of reservoirs and water abstraction
– increased pressure on ressource,
• increased total population and boom on fish demand by
urban markets,
• increased fishers population
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Livestock Water Productivity
• LWP= ∑ Value of production and services (V)
Quantity of water withdrawn for production and services
LWP= Vv + Vl + Vf + Vt + Vcp
Qefn + Qefc + Qerr + Qecm
Animal products and services: meat (v), milk (l), manure (f), traction
and transport (t), leather & skin (cp)
Water in animal feed (natural, fn; cultivated; fc); crop residues (rr),
drinking water (cm)
• Data gathering complete for V, finalising calculations for
water from animal feed and crop residues (Crop water use)
• Continue determining options to improve systems and LWP
where necessary (questions over how to interpret LWP)
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Evolution of stock numbers 1978-2050Evolution annuelle du cheptel (bovins et petits ruminants) en zone agroclimatique
aride du système pastoral du BFN de 1978 à 2008
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
Année
Nombre (Tête)
Bovins Petits Ruminants
Evolution annuelle du cheptel (bovins, petits ruminants et camelins) en zone
agroclimatique aride du système pastoral du BFN de 2008 à 2050
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
18000000
Année
Nombre (Tête)
Bovins Petits Ruminants Camelins
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Pastoral & trade movements
Clanet, 2009
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Leglislation surrounding pastoralism
Hydraulique
SectorielAména-gements
CodeA-P
Prati-ques
Aména-gements
N.r.Aména-gements
MigrantsDispositifs focalises sur :
x-xxxxxxx
-xxxxxx
XXXxxx(x)
Régionaux
•CEDEAO
•CEBV
•CILSS
-X-------Bassin
L > NL > NL > NL > NL > NL > NL > NL > NL > NGestion quotidienne
X1960
X1979
X1997
X1996
X1995
X1982
X1983
X1984
X1987
Nationaux (Législatifs : textes, lois codes, décrets, schémas directeurs …
XXXXXXXXXLocaux (us et coutumes)
TchadNigeria2NigerMaliGuinéeCôte IvCam. BurkinaBeninDISPOSITIFS
� Mobilités pastorales transfrontalières ���� besoin: « sécuriser le foncier pastoral » (PRASET, Niamey,
GTZ, 1997).
1- PRASET : Projet Régional d'Appui au Secteur de l'Elevage Transhumant, GTZ, Niamey, 1997
2- Hors CEDEO
3- CEDAO : Communauté des Etats de l’Afrique de l’Ouest
4- CILSS : Comité inter-états de lutte contre la sécheresse au Sahel
5- CEBV : Communauté du bétail et de la Viande
Legislation exists but rarely applied. Local customs take precedence over national law
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
WP4: Institutional context
• Transboundary dependance
• Lack of transboundary and
national water management
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Institutional difficulties
• Recent institutions/decentralisation
• Budding IWRM
• Uneven recognition of traditional law
-PDFA
signé
-PDFA
signé
PDFA
signé
--PDFA
signé
PDFA
signé
Genre
ReconnaissanceTrès mauvaisPas reconnu
Reconnaissance
Reconnaissance
ReconnaissanceÀ améliorerChefs consultés
Reconnaissance
Gouv/Cout
umier
Difficile789 LGAs8 régionsInachevé,
déficitCollectivitésdébut10 provinces13 régions6 dép.
Décentralis
ation
PrincipeÀ améliorerPris en compteCellule GIREGire =
défiPlan directeur
Principes reconnus
PAGIRE adopté
Projet
pilote
GIRE
Pas clairDroits
occupationPropriétéPropriétéPropriété�ationalisteTitre foncier
Permis d’occuper
Droit/Politi
que
TchadNigeriaNigerMaliGuiC.I.CamBFBénin
Concession
D’après 2iE, EIER-ETSHER
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Importance of institutions at local level
• Impact on WPr
via land tenure
• Existing systems
based on
traditional
law/customs
XExclusion
XXManagement
XXXWithdrawal
XXXXAccess
Undifferentiated actor :
individual or herd
without particular status
Exploitation unity (e.g. with
fishery right)
or outsider (with a temporal
right for extraction)
Lineage member:
prescribed right for
pasture access
- State
- ‘Maître des eaux, des terres, des pâturages’
discretionary power on water, land or pasture
access
- Chiefs (village, family, lineage or production
unit)
Property right in the Inner Delta �
Authorized EntrantAuthorized UserClaimantProprietorUsers type �
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Legal pluralism issue
- Legal plurality: overlap of traditional
and modern water/land rights
- Decentralisation, IWRM, NGOs add to
this plurality
- Creates more authority structures
& levels and set of rules
- Case by case study required, some
mixtures work better than others
CSIRO.CSIRO.
WP1: Water and poverty at a national scale
Falkenmark WPI
HDI -0.21 n/a
SVI 0.07 -0.47
GSI -0.18 -0.08
Headcount
Ratio 0.26 -0.34
CSIRO.CSIRO.
No universally agreed-to metric
Issue no. 1: What and where is poverty?
Child mortality
Child morbidity
(stunting)
Household
wealth
Hot spot
CSIRO.CSIRO.
•Derive weightings from the data
Issue no. 2: Accounting for causes of
poverty
• Spatially explicit modelling – heterogeneous coefficients for a
heterogeneous problem
CSIRO.CSIRO.
Outcomes: e.g. Central Mali
For each hotspot, we identified the most serious water constraint
• Water poverty manifests in different ways in different places
Poverty definitions are
crucial → use multiple
metrics simultaneously
and compare results
Central Mali and the Inner Delta
CSIRO.
Modelled outcomes: Central Mali
Wealth Morbidity Mortality(Constant) -0.16539 -1.71010 *** 0.14522 ***Population density (people/km2) 0.00137 ** 0.00040 -0.00004
Population (people) 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
Telephones (proportion) - 0.74888 -0.10982
Electricity (proportion) - -0.39659 0.10017
NPP (produced) (tonnes/0.25° cell) - - -
Access (’00 km) 0.04319 0.17222 -0.01578
Education (years) 0.22160 *** 0.20625 * -0.03104 **Forest Cover (proportion) -0.17428 0.04348 0.00325
Cattle density (units/km2) 0.00001 0.00443 0.00055
Chicken density (units/km2) -0.00024 0.00031 -0.00029
Sheep density (units/km2) -0.00081 * -0.00172 0.00025 *Goat density (units/km2) -0.00107 -0.00457 0.00013
pig density (units/km2) -0.01497 -0.06780 -0.00559
Unprotected water (proportion) -0.20029 *** 0.32213 -0.00789
Water Access (minutes) -0.00282 0.02090 ** 0.00038
Dams (’00 km) - - -
Irrigation (percent) -0.00631 *** 0.01206 * -0.00090
Precipitation (mm/yr) - - -
TARWR (m3/yr/km2/person) 0.00871 0.01864 -0.00406
Drought Economic Risk (decile) 0.01388 * 0.03840 * 0.00311
Human footprint (1-100 index) 0.00120 0.00667 0.00059
Malaria prevalence (parasite ratio) -0.18819 ** -0.26380 -0.06278 *Moran’s I for residuals -0.025 -0.002 -0.011
Akaike information criterion -144.31 37.22 -321.88
Aprox. Pseudo adj. R2 0.81 0.63 0.60
Spatial weights matrix 2 nearest neighbors 3 nearest neighbors 1 nearest neighbor
Sample size 83 83 83
CSIRO.CSIRO.
Outcomes: Considerable variation between hotspots
Considerable disparity between results analysed for child
mortality and child stunting – warrants using multiple
metrics
• All findings based on statistical correlations, not observed causality
North West Nigeria:• Water quality (access to protected sources) is the primary water-
related poverty correlate. 1% improvement is associated with a 1.1%
decrease in child mort. rates
• Secondary evidence: Irrigation has been beneficial as well as water
access
• Education: 1yr improvement in average schooling attainment is
associated with a 0.6% decrease in child mort. rates.
CSIRO.CSIRO.
Outcomes: variation between hotspots
Poverty
Hotspot Measure of poverty
Water poverty
variables
Non-water
poverty variables
Utility of the
TARWR
variable
North west
NigeriaAll three metrics
Water access
Unprotected water
Irrigation
TARWR
Education
Livestock
Moderate –
child mortality
only
Central Mali
and the Inner
Delta
Child mort. only Unprotected waterEducation
Livestock
Limited – not
significant
East Burkina
FasoAll three metrics
Unprotected water
Dams
Education
Environ. damage
Limited – child
morbidity only,
contrary signs
East Nigeria and
north
Cameroon
Wealth index onlyIrrigation
Dams
Education
Population
density
Malaria
Drought risk
Environ. damage
Limited – child
mortality only,
contrary signs
South and
central Nigeria
(‘wealth
hotspot’)
All three metrics Unprotected water
Access to towns
Education
Electricity
Telephones
Limited –
contrary signs,
small effect
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
WP5: Intervention potential
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
AgWat & poverty
• Sample agricultural problems:
– access to water
– poor soil fertility
– pests
– crop diseases
– lack of inputs
– access to markets
• Improvements needed in:
– Awareness raising, information and communication
– Training and capacity building
– Equipment
– Legal and administrative frameworks
– Finances
– Cooperation and information exchange
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Physical interventions
Adapt demand to water supply(photosensitivity, better decision makingfor sowing, extensivity),
Adapt supply to crop demand (runoff control and water harvesting, rooting)
Enhancing tolerance to supply-demand gap in deficit (rooting management, droughtresistance) or excess (drainage tolerancy)
Source: UNESCO
Conservation tillage and conservation agriculture currently not possible in semi-arid conditions ofWest and Center Africa (very strong competitionwith other crop residues uses)
Intensification does not enhance RUE, exceptthrough organic matter inputs.
Supplemental irrigation during short dry-spells andbeginnings of humid seas in intensive farmingonly
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Flow predictions• Predictions in August for Sept-Oct rainfall used
to predict flow data
• Used for Manantali dam in Senegal. Extension to Niger river upstream of Inner Delta
• Spatiotemportal uncertainty for rainfall predictions (7 days feasible)
-2.79
0
2.79
5.58
8.37
11.16
13.95
16.74
-21.09 -18.28 -15.47 -12.66 -9.84 -7.03 -4.22 -1.40 1.41 4.22 7.04 9.85 12.66 15.47
longitude
latitu
de
85
71
57
43
29
15
114
28
42
56
70
84
9897
83
69
55
41
27
1312
26
40
54
68
82
9695
81
67
53
39
25
1110
24
38
52
66
80
9493
79
65
51
37
23
98
22
36
50
64
78
92 87
73
59
45
31
17
32
16
30
44
58
72
86 89
75
61
47
33
19
54
18
32
46
60
74
88 91
77
63
49
35
21
76
20
34
48
62
76
90
²
SELINGUE
FOMI
SENEGAL à BAKEL
MANANTALI
J2
G5
I2
H5
NIGER à KOULIKOURO
0 500 1000 km
Modèle : ARPEGE 3 forcé Modèle : ARPEGE 4.6 forcé Modèle : ARPEGE 4.5 couplé
fle
uve S
EN
EG
AL
à B
ake
lfle
uve
NIG
ER
à K
oulik
ou
ro
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
prévu = f ( J2 )
observéprévu en temps réel
m3/s
année
calage
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
prévu = f ( G5 )observéprévu en temps réel
m3/s
année
calage
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
prévu = f ( H5 )
observé
prévu en temps réel
m3/s
année
calage
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
prévu = f ( G5 )observé
m3/s
année
calage
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
prévu = f ( I2 )observéprévu en temps réel
m3/s
année
calage
Figure 1 : Location of Bakel in Senegal basin and
Koulikouro in Niger and zones used for predictions in
the Arpege model
Figure 2 : results for natural river flow in sept-oct at Bakel in Senegal river basin and Koulikoro in Niger river basin, obtained from the
successive versions of ARPEGE
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
HADCM2 – A2 scenario Variability of discharges for some basins near 2080 in regard
of the average 1966-1995
Climate change modelling
• High uncertainty
• Increase in T°C,
in variability and
extreme events,
later start of
rainy season,
dry spells, and
overall more
rain in Central
part of WA &
decrease in
West
• Variation in
yields
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Water development and IWRM
• Dam building
– Impact on local
people
– Impact d/s
– Against scientific
advice
Nig
er
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
• Water and poverty: complex relation, yet to be proved…
• Large potential for WPr improvements but above 800mm rainfall, water rarely a limiting factor. Under 800mm rainfall,water is only one variable. Others more significant
• Difficult to implement (weak economy, reliance on aid, diversityof ethnicities/languages, insecurity).
• Improvements in water management need to be accompanied by institutional and cultural changes to support them. Also investment, markets, microfinance… Easier to import cheap products than invest in national agriculture?
• Large potential for irrigation (x 000s ha), rainfed agriculture, livestock, integrated systems (fisheries, agroforestry)
• Large scale hydraulic investment – complicate situation notopposite…
Initial conclusions
BFP NIGER Coordination: Jean Charles CLANET & Andrew OGILVIE – IRD/G-EAU
Further insights
• Wider causes of poverty need to be addressed
– Eg. impacts of improvements in education
• Literacy improvements should also alleviate demographicpressure and future water « stress »