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Nigeria School Education in Nigeria: Preparing for Universal Basic Education October 3, 2003 Human Development III Africa Region The World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
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Nigeria School Education in Nigeria: Preparing for Universal Basic Education October 3, 2003 Human Development III Africa Region The World Bank

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary.............................................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction............................................................................................................................1 Some findings and implications.............................................................................................2 Data scarcity and the need for further analysis......................................................................6 The opportunity for reform ....................................................................................................9

Chapter 1: The Political, Social, and Economic Environment for Educational Development....................... 3 Introduction............................................................................................................................3 Political and administrative structure.....................................................................................4 Demographic structure...........................................................................................................5 Economic growth and structure of employment....................................................................7 Poverty levels and well-being..............................................................................................12 Overview of government finance.........................................................................................14 Overview of public spending on education .........................................................................18 Conclusions and some implications.....................................................................................20

Chapter 2: Educational Attainment, Enrollments, and Student Flows ......................................................... 21 Educational attainment.........................................................................................................21 Enrollments, Rates, and Student Flows From School-Based Data......................................26 Enrollments, Rates, and Student Flows––Household Data .................................................34 Probability model of ever attending school .........................................................................45 Bringing together survival, completion, and transition rates...............................................49 Conclusions and some implications.....................................................................................50

Chapter 3: Financing Education ....................................................................................................................... 53 Funding governments and financing education ...................................................................53 Sources of education funding and problems of aggregation................................................54 Education expenditures by source .......................................................................................56 Expenditures by level of education......................................................................................66 The whole picture of education finance within states..........................................................68 Some aggregate estimates, comparisons and recent developments .....................................69 Unit public cost by level of education .................................................................................72 Private education and household expenditure......................................................................74 Conclusions and some implications.....................................................................................76

Chapter 4: Quality of Primary and Secondary Education and Learning Outcomes ................................... 81 Structure and organization of the education system ............................................................81 Conditions in the primary schools .......................................................................................83 Conditions in the secondary schools....................................................................................91 The quality of teaching and levels of learning.....................................................................91 Conclusions and some implications.....................................................................................97

Chapter 5: Organizational and Institutional Issues......................................................................................... 99 Division of responsibility for education across governments............................................100 Objectives and commitment in basic education.................................................................105 Staffing the system.............................................................................................................108 Conclusions and some implications...................................................................................111

Chapter 6: Conclusion...................................................................................................................................... 113 The wider environment ......................................................................................................113 Attainment, enrollment, and student flows ........................................................................114 Financing education and the levels and patterns of expenditure .......................................116 Quality of schooling and student outcomes .......................................................................118

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Organizational and institutional aspects ............................................................................119 Data and policy development.............................................................................................120

Bibliography...................................................................................................................................................... 123

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Introduction

1. For several years following independence, Nigerians were proud of their educational system and proud of being educated. The rapid development of primary schooling throughout the Western and Eastern regions in the 1950s and 1960s, the development of good-quality secondary grammar schools throughout the Federation, plus the expansion through the Ashby Commission of a university sector with half a dozen world-class universities all made this system one to be emulated. Over time, as the political economy of the country worsened, much of the system appeared to stagnate and, during some periods, contract. The reemergence of civilian government is raising hopes of an educational renaissance leading to higher levels of coverage and quality and ultimately to improved educational outcomes that will reduce the incidence of poverty, be rewarded in the labor market, redevelop national pride in the system and generally improve the nation’s sense of well-being. 2. The purpose of this report is to make available some new information and analysis of the school system in Nigeria to those who will be making, interpreting, and implementing educational policy in the near future, at a time when the momentum for expansion and reform of the system is growing. This Summary presents some of the most important findings, raises some of the implications, and points to six areas where additional information and analysis would be useful. The report is divided into five main chapters, with an overview of each provided in chapter 6. The focus of each chapter is summarized briefly below.

• Chapter 1 discusses aspects of socioeconomic and political development that influence the educational system now and will continue to do so in the future: the political and administrative setting; population structure and projections; economic growth, the structure of employment, and the incidence of poverty; and government finances and aggregate public expenditures on education.

• Chapter 2 details the coverage and the internal efficiency of the school system using

data from both school-based censuses and large household surveys. It provides estimates of the traditional measures of gross and net enrollment ratios and also of grade 1 entry, cycle survival, and cohort completion rates. The survey data allow many of the estimates to be disaggregated across gender, rural and urban location, geopolitical zone and household incomes.

• Chapter 3 describes the sources and mechanisms for financing the educational system

across the three levels of government and attempts to provide estimates of the contributions of each level, aggregate education expenditures, and the expenditure patterns across primary, secondary, and tertiary education. This chapter also includes estimates of household expenditures on education and considers some of the issues involved in financing the national policy of Universal Basic Education.

• Chapter 4 focuses on some of the inputs into the school system. A particular emphasis

is placed on teachers, including pupil:teacher ratios across states and local

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governments, teacher qualifications, and the numbers of newly trained teachers relative to the demand. In addition, some of the results of recent classroom studies that have investigated teaching practices are reported. The chapter also provides evidence of levels of learning achievement, particularly in primary schools.

• Chapter 5 highlights some of the important and overarching organizational and

institutional issues affecting the delivery of education. It focuses on the division of responsibilities across the school system among the three tiers of government; leadership and the setting of objectives, and the efficiency and behavior of the organizations that manage the system.

Some findings and implications

3. A more extensive summary of the findings of the five main chapters are provided in the Conclusion to this report. Some of the important messages are highlighted below. 4. Education is important in reducing poverty - the increase in the incidence of poverty since the mid-1980s has affected all groups of people but those with higher levels of education the least. The proportion of households whose head has no education that are very poor is almost 50 percent higher than that of households whose head has a primary education. Further, the proportion of the population described as nonpoor in the educationally advanced South East zone is half that in the educationally underdeveloped North West. While urban unemployment rates are over 20 percent for each grouping of educated labor, average earnings of university graduates are 2.5 times higher than those of secondary school graduates. 5. The objectives of the Universal Primary Education Program launched in the mid-1970s are close to being achieved for some groups of children but not for all. Across the country, roughly 79 percent of children enroll in class 1 and of these six out of every seven finish the primary cycle. Overall, around two thirds of all Nigerian children are completing a primary schooling – and one third are not. There are wide variations in the completion rates across regions, gender, location and household incomes. In the three southern zones and North Central, the only groups of children whose entry rate to grade 1 is below 85 percent are rural boys living in the poorest 20 percent of households and rural girls living in the poorest 40 percent. In the North East, the highest rate is 78 percent for urban boys in the richest 20 percent of households; the lowest rate is 37 percent for the poorest quintile of rural girls. In the North West, the same groups of children have the highest and lowest rates, but in both cases the rates are lower - 58 percent and 19 percent, respectively. 6. Most states have either very high primary gross enrollment ratios or very low ones resulting in differences in medium term objectives. Recent school census data suggest overall gross enrollment rates for primary, junior secondary and senior secondary schooling of 91, 30 and 26 percent respectively. There are, however, very wide variations across states. Of the thirty states which existed in 1999, eighteen had gross enrollment ratios of over 100 percent while eight had ratios of below 40

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percent. Only four states were in the range between 41 and 100 percent. The situation in the first set of states resembles that in countries such as Uganda, Zimbabwe and Botswana while that in the second is closer to countries such as Niger, Chad and Burkina Faso. In some states, the appropriate medium term target is universal basic education while in other states it remains universal primary education. Any national programs to improve access to schooling need to recognize this strong distinction. Those states which are aiming to universalize junior secondary schooling in the medium term will need to decide whether this is to be the terminal level of schooling for some groups of children. 7. The large differences between the gross and net enrollment ratios, and the very large number of overage children in each class, suggest high levels of repetition and/or of dropout and reentry but these data are not collected. The difference between the gross and net primary enrollment ratios is very large (around 30 percentage points) which suggests a high level of overage enrollment. In fact, 52 percent of grade 6 pupils are over the age of 12 years and 56 percent of grade 9 pupils are over the age of 15 years. The reasons for overage enrollments are a mixture of overage enrollment in class 1, dropout and reentry, and class repetition. The higher the rate of repetition, the higher the cost of producing each graduate of the cycle, and the wider the age range within a class, the harder the teacher’s job. Information on repetition and on dropout and reentry are not available in Nigeria, even from the recently improved school census. This constrains the ability to understand the size of the problem, to analyze the implications for school efficiency and outcomes, or to develop policies to reduce the problem. 8. The transition rate from primary to junior secondary schooling is low according to school-based data though higher according to household survey data: the retention rate throughout the full secondary cycle is high. Available school-based data imply transition rates from the final year of primary to the first year of junior secondary of between 37 and 55 percent through the 1990s, but the rate for 2002 is just 34 percent. These rates suggest that less than one third of all children enter secondary school. However, two sets of household survey data report that almost half of all 20 to 29 year olds have completed junior secondary schooling ranging from 20 percent in the North West to 63 percent in the South West. For those states planning to universalize junior secondary schooling, a greater accuracy in the school censuses is now imperative. However, it is already clear that while the transition rate is relatively low in most states, the survival rate is high. Once enrolled in a junior secondary school, the probability of graduating from senior secondary appears to be around 75 to 80 percent. 9. Levels of learning achievement in schools appear to be low and the causes require more systematic attention. Learning achievement tests undertaken by primary class 4 pupils in 1996 and class 5 pupils in 2002 show poor results. The average scores in 1996 were 32 percent for numeracy and 25 percent for language, while in 2002, only 20 percent were able to answer more than a third of the language test items correctly. An exercise comparing the 1996 results with those in 12 other African countries, found the performance in Nigeria to be the worst. In the senior secondary examination, the effective pass rates between 1998 and 2001 have averaged below 40 percent in all major subjects apart from Nigerian languages, and have been particularly

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low in English language. All studies of the conditions in schools point to a severe lack of teaching-learning materials and to physical conditions which impede effective learning. 10. There are no accurate estimates of total public expenditure on education in Nigeria because of a lack of information on state government sectoral expenditures, but rough estimates point to an overall decline over recent decades and to an overemphasis on tertiary education. Since state governments do not report their sectoral expenditures to the federal government there are no accurate estimates of their expenditures on education. As they fund almost all of secondary education, a large part of tertiary education and some part of primary this is a serious gap. The results of case studies of twelve states suggest that education expenditures across all federal, state, and local governments in 1998 were 14.5 percent of total expenditures and 2.3 percent of gross domestic product. If accurate, these estimates point to a significant decline over previous decades and compare poorly to the situation in most other African countries. They also suggest a much higher than normal share for tertiary education. The large salary increases since 1998 are estimated to have raised the share of total expenditure to around 17.5 percent, which is much closer to the African average, but the data remain poor and it is not clear how the allocations have changed across levels. 11. There are very large differences between states and between local governments in their efforts to fund education. The share of total expenditure which is spent on education varies significantly. From the twelve case studies, the median share of total expenditure spent on education by state governments in 1999 was 18 percent. However, in five of the states the share was over 25 percent while in four it was below 14 percent. Similarly, in 2002, for a different set of 12 states, four devoted over 50 percent of their personnel expenditures to education while five devoted less than 33 percent. Differences across local governments are even wider. In 2001, while on average 51 percent of the Federation Account allocation to local governments was deducted at source for teacher salaries, the variation across states was from 25 to 80 percent. In all, local governments of 13 states had over 60 percent deducted while in 10 states the deduction was below 40 percent. 12. The recently recommended increase in the share of the Federation Account allocated to state governments would allow them to allocate more resources to education.

An increase in the share of the Federation Account allocated to state governments from 24 percent to 33 percent was recommended by the Fiscal Commission in 2002, but has not yet been ratified by the federal legislature. While the states have a wide range of responsibilities and in several cases have not been able to meet their obligations (including paying the salaries of secondary school teachers), this would be a significant increase and one which would allow – though not ensure - all states to improve nonsalary allocations to the education sector and to hire additional teachers in those states with high pupil:teacher ratios and low coverage. 13. The draft Universal Basic Education Act indicates that the federal government intends to allocate grants to states as a first charge on its own consolidated revenue fund. The use of a first charge, the total amounts involved, the criteria for distribution, and the requirements placed on the states need to be carefully assessed.

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The circumstances in which a first charge on the budget are justifiable are generally regarded as few. It is not clear why the Ministry of Finance has acquiesced in this case. In addition, given the very poor information available on educational expenditures (particularly for the junior secondary cycle of basic education) it is perhaps premature to specify a fixed proportion of federal government revenues for this purpose. The criteria to be used for allocating grants across states are not included in the draft act. The challenge is to avoid rewarding states and local governments that are unwilling to use their own resources for education or penalizing those that already allocate relatively large shares of their revenues. Finally, there is the question of what would be required of the state governments in terms of plans, outcomes, and reforms in exchange for the grants. Such specific-purpose grants are not uncommon in other federal countries, including for universalizing schooling. It may be useful for the federal government to gain a greater understanding of how other countries have approached these issues. 14. While universalizing primary education across all states, and basic education in some states, over the next few years will require additional teachers, classrooms, and materials, and therefore additional financial resources, there is considerable scope for increasing efficiency in the delivery of schooling. A more efficient use of resources could be achieved through measures such as rationalizing the allocation of teachers, reducing repetition and improving pupil flows within cycles, and increasing teacher productivity. The current allocation of teachers is inefficient and inequitable. While the overall pupil:teacher ratio in primary schooling is close to the norm, there are wide variations across the states. In a third, the ratio is below 30 and there are too many teachers, while in a further third the ratio is above 50 and there are too few. The state averages also hide very wide variations across local governments and schools. For 10 states, the average range of the pupil:teacher ratio across local governments is 22 to 78. The widest range within a state is 14 to 96. Repetition and dropout/reentry raise the costs of producing school graduates. Repetition increases the total number of children enrolled and may then justify an additional teacher in the school. Alternatively, it reduces the amount of time a teacher can give to each pupil, and may result in overcrowding in general. In both cases it results in a wider range of ages in the classroom which may increase the problems forteachers. Overall, either costs increase or the quality of teaching suffers. The effectiveness of teachers could be increased. Teachers have few materials with which to complement their skills, and there is no rolling plan to produce and distribute additional materials. Between 1994 and 2001, across 26 states, the allocation for instructional materials was equal to just 1.5 percent of total expenditure on primary schooling. Recent research studies plus the very poor results from achievement tests in literacy point to significant problems in implementing the national policy on the language of instruction. Other studies on the use instructional time also suggest it would be possible to make teachers more effective. There is very little opportunity for in-service training. Less than 0.2 percent of total primary expenditures are for this purpose.

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15. The system could also achieve more if it were more effectively organized. Federal political systems are always more complicated to organize than unitary ones but have the potential to be more effective in the delivery of services. Currently in Nigeria this potential is not being achieved. There are several examples of, on the one hand, duplication and on the other a reluctance to be accountable across the three tiers of government. Currently, there are moves to restructure the management of primary education and to place the state governments at the center. Similar issues might also be raised regarding secondary and, more important, tertiary education. Currently, both the federal and state governments operate and fund universities, teacher training colleges. and polytechnics/senior technical colleges. Just as there are large differences across states and local governments in pupil:teacher ratios, there are wide differences in the size of the nonteaching workforce in the organizations managing the system.

Data scarcity and the need for further analysis

16. The scarcity of data and the very limited amount of existing analysis of key aspects of the educational system, and of its impact on socioeconomic development in Nigeria, have limited the scope of this report. More important, they limit the ability of those who make, interpret, and implement policy in the federal and state governments to undertake their own analyses of the dynamics of the educational system, design new interventions, and gauge their effects. During the preparation of this report, six areas have been identified for additional data/analysis/policy development: (1) reasons for differences in access, survival, and transition rates across different groups of children; (2) expenditures on education, patterns of distribution, and greater resource efficiency; (3) the overall effectiveness of teachers in schools; (4) levels of learning achievement and the constraints to learning; (5) distribution of authority across the educational system and the effectiveness of organizations within each of the three tiers of government; and (6) experiences of the graduates of each level of the educational system in the labor market and the implications for what is taught, the rate of expansion, and the sharing of costs. Each of these is discussed further below.

Access, survival and transition rates

17. Now that the data on primary and secondary school enrollments are becoming available through the 2002 School Census, with a higher level of certainty than in the past, it will be important to delve deeper into these data to understand better the patterns of student flows and the efficiency of the educational system. In these efforts it is important to move away from the traditional gross and net enrollment ratios toward measuring the intake, survival, and completion rates for each cycle of schooling. As the Universal Basic Education program develops, it will be necessary to focus even more on rates of completion of primary schooling and of junior secondary schooling, depending on the state. Currently, the lack of data on repetition and reentry rates makes it difficult to understand student flows. The large difference between the transition rate from primary to secondary schooling implied by the household surveys and by the school-based enrollment data suggest that these rates may be high. If so, this is an indication that efficiency could be increased, with significant financial implications, and that the proportion of young adults who complete the primary cycle and enter secondary school is higher than the 25 to 30 percent currently assumed. For states

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whose immediate goal is to universalize the junior secondary cycle, this issue is particularly important to resolve. It is essential to allocate resources (human and financial) to adequately analyze the data from the new school census, and to plan for the census to be maintained. 18. There are still wide variations in access to schooling for children in different states and, within states, often across income groups. In particular, within the North West and North East zones there is a group of states where the enrollment rates remain very low. Much more needs to be known about the reasons for this situation. In all states, rural children in the poorest 20 percent of households have much lower participation rates. While the rates in the highest four household income quintiles are above the average for African countries, the rate in the lowest quintile is below the average. More needs to be known about the constraints on these children and how they can be reduced. 19. In the northern states the immediate challenges are to ensure that all children enroll in grade 1 and complete the full primary cycle. In the southern states, the challenges are to quickly meet those targets and to move on to universalizing a full basic education. This second part will require an important decision. Currently fewer than half of all children enter the first grade of junior secondary school. However, once there, the probability of completing the full six year secondary cycle is high. The question, therefore, is whether the universalization of basic education implies that junior secondary is to be the final educational level for a large proportion of the population of young adults or whether the current junior to secondary school transition rate is to be maintained so as to universalize a full secondary education and a 12-year cycle of schooling. The latter would require a very large financial commitment. Either decision would have significant implications for curriculum design, pupil testing, and teacher development.

Expenditures on education, patterns of distribution, and greater cost effectiveness

20. The second major area where additional information is required is expenditures on education. The immediate need is to develop information on state government expenditures, both through their ministries and their parastatals, including tertiary institutions. Without this information, it is not possible to understand the national effort being made, the distribution of expenditures across levels of education, or the relative inputs of the three tiers of government. In turn, the development of holistic sector development strategies and plans, nationally and for individual states, is not possible. More detailed knowledge of expenditures, and of unit costs at each level, would also provide the information for assessing the equity of the current pattern of financing and would allow for estimations to be made of the impact of increasing efficiency and accelerating the flow of pupils through the cycles. One result of the current situation is the difficulty of producing realistic assessments of the costs of universalizing basic education and its potential impact on funding for the rest of the educational system. More detailed cost information could be used to understand more fully the cost-effectiveness of altering various inputs into the system. 21. An improved system for collecting, collating, and analyzing information on expenditures in the states is needed for both the federal and state governments. At present there is no constitutional requirement for states even to report their sectoral budgetary transactions to the federal government, though this situation may change if the Fiscal Responsibility Act becomes law. The institution best placed to undertake the systematic collection of education expenditure data is probably the Central Bank in coordination with the Policy, Research and Statistics department of the Federal Ministry of Education.

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Effectiveness of teachers

22. Analyses of education expenditures, and projections of additional expenditures that will be required to reach the universalization targets, need to be complemented by efforts to improve the ways resources in the system are currently used. The most important, and expensive, of these resources are teachers. There are at least three sets of gaps in data and/or understanding in this regard: – the labor market for teachers and the minimum conditions necessary for their recruitment

in sufficient numbers; – causes of the very wide pupil:teacher ratios both between states and between local

governments within states; and – the existing, and optimal, amounts of teaching materials in the classrooms that are

available to increase teacher effectiveness. 23. The first of these requires analysis of the conditions of employment of government teachers (and lecturers) compared to similarly qualified government employees, and of similarly qualified teachers in private schools and tertiary institutions. It also requires an investigation of the level of applications to teacher training courses, particularly since the salary increases, in conjunction with both the additional demands that will result from measures to universalize schooling and the current pupil:teacher ratios. The current ratios will need some further documentation, especially between local governments and between schools, followed by investigations of how and why the discrepancies occur. Improving the rationality of teacher allocation is possibly the single most important action required to improve both efficiency and equity. The third of the major gaps covers teaching materials, which are necessary to increase the productivity of the teachers. The initial data source is the school census. Once that has been analyzed, some more detailed surveys may be needed to assess what is available, what is used, and what is most useful.

Levels of learning achievement

24. The tests of learning achievement given to primary school pupils have produced poor results. Since Nigeria has better than average pupil:teacher ratios, this is particularly disturbing. An important aspect of the tests is that they have been administered in English. Both urban children and those in private schools have performed better than others, perhaps reflecting the more widespread use of English in their everyday life. The results point to the need to revisit policies on the language of instruction together with the availability of materials, and to give further thought to the nature and language of the instruments in the learning achievement tests. There is still a great deal that is not known about the levels of children’s learning in schools and the factors that are constraining it.

Distribution of authority and effectiveness of organizations

25. Over the past quarter-century, there have been many changes in the ways primary schooling is managed and funded. The lack of stability and clarity continues to be detrimental to the development of this subsector. The Supreme Court rulings in 2002 and the draft

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legislation for the Universal Basic Education Act are again redefining the roles of the federal and state governments in primary education and the ways in which all levels of government will relate. Attention might next shift to secondary and tertiary levels of education. In secondary schooling, the federal unity colleges were begun several decades ago with a multiplicity of objectives. At the least, these objectives might be reexamined to determine if they are still relevant. In tertiary education, both the federal and state governments manage and finance similar types of institutions within the same states--teacher training colleges, polytechnics or senior technical colleges, and universities. In addition, there is a growing number of private institutions, particularly private universities, and several firms have their own training programs. Once clarity has been brought to the primary level, it may be appropriate for the federal and state governments to develop a holistic tertiary education plan for the country.

Education and the labor market

26. One of the principal motivations of governments in providing educational services, particularly beyond the basic cycle, and of children and households demanding them, is the expectation of higher levels of labor productivity and income. However, there are very few data and little analysis of the relationship between education and the labor market. Studies of the incidence of poverty have shown lower levels on average for households headed by higher educated adults, and the urban surveys of the National Manpower Board have found positive associations between education and earnings, but hard information is very scanty. Anecdotal evidence from a limited survey of employers undertaken for the National Universities Commission in 2000 indicated that they found most tertiary graduates unprepared for employment, while in the South East zone, secondary school enrollment ratios are higher for females and suggestions are made that males see greater profit in immediate employment. But again, hard evidence is limited. In the 1960s and 1970s, the National Manpower Board regularly published the results of surveys focusing on labor market demand and the outputs of training institutions. These surveys have become fewer and fewer. For secondary and tertiary education, a more detailed understanding of the experiences of graduates would be useful in order to provide a more solid basis for discussions of what is taught, at what rate each subsector should expand, and how the costs might be shared between governments, students and households.

The opportunity for reform

27. The momentum for expansion and reform of the educational system in Nigeria is growing. The federal government has committed to the Education For All targets, which include universal primary education by 2015, and is fully engaged in the international dialogue surrounding this program. In addition, and reflecting the educational diversity across the country, President Obasanjo in 1999 launched the Universal Basic Education Program, which covers both primary and junior secondary schooling. Simultaneously, as part of the overall discussion on the relative roles of the federal and state governments in Nigeria and the recent legal rulings that have defined these roles in primary schooling more clearly, many of the state governments are also increasing their focus on education. In the past few months there has been a move, stimulated through the Education For All movement, to mobilize both state governments and civil society in discussions on education and to begin formulating subsector programs. As new federal and state governments take on the responsibilities of power for the next four years in a context in which the momentum for change in the

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education sector is accelerating, and some deadlines for action are drawing near, it is intended that this report will be a useful input into the debate.

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INTRODUCTION

This report is one of a series being initiated by the World Bank to diagnose the current

status of the education system of selected African countries. The focus of this particular report on Nigeria is on the school system including its coverage, efficiency, financing, management, within-school delivery and outcomes. Tertiary education, in the main, is not included apart from some considerations of teacher training and the position of the sub sector in the overall pattern of educational finance.

The momentum for expansion and reform of the educational system in Nigeria is growing. The federal government has committed to the Education for All targets which include universal primary education by 2015 and is fully engaged in the international dialogue surrounding this program. In addition, and reflecting the educational diversity across the country, President Obasango In 1999 launched the Universal Basic Education Programme which covers both primary and junior secondary schooling. Simultaneously, as part of the overall discussion on the relative roles of the federal and state governments in Nigeria and the recent legal rulings which have defined these rules in primary schooling more clearly in the context of the 1999 Constitution, many of the state governments are also increasing their focus on the education sector. In the past few months there has been a move, stimulated by the Education for All program, to mobilize both state governments and civil society in discussions of education and to begin the formulation of sub sector programs. As new federal and state governments take on the responsibilities of power for the next four years in a context in which the momentum for change in the education sector is accelerating, and some deadlines for action are drawing near, it is hoped that this report will be a useful added input into the debate.

The diversity of educational development in Nigeria is very wide and very important

to recognize. While an effort has been made to reflect this in the report, only a start has been made. The report, however, does point to issues and indicates types of analyses which could be taken up by individual state governments. This raises the issue of good quality data, made available in a timely way. The immediate needs are for information which will allow for a more detailed analysis and understanding of student flows through the system and of patterns of public expenditures. The raw results of the 2002 School Census which are now becoming available will be helpful but a comprehensive program to analyze them is required together with initiatives to aggregate and analyze education expenditures. Equally important will be efforts to improve the management of each tier of the system, and to identify ways in which existing resources can be used more productively.

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CHAPTER 1: THE POLITICAL, SOCIAL, AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

Introduction

1.1 The coverage of education in a particular country at a particular moment in time is influenced by many factors. In the absence of compulsory schooling, children attend school because they choose to, or the choice is made for them, and the facilities are available. The costs and difficulties of attending school, and the benefits that are expected to result, affect the demand for schooling. In turn, these are influenced by poverty and income levels of households, the importance given to literacy, and expectations regarding how schooling will improve children’s life chances. The importance given by governments to raise educational levels, the availability of government resources, and competing demands influence supply in the public sector. This chapter introduces several factors outside of the education system that influences its development in Nigeria. 1.2 The Federal Republic of Nigeria is the most highly populated country on the African continent with an estimated total of 132 million. Of these, around 73 million are below the age of 20 and, until recently, had never lived under a civilian government. Indeed, in the first 39 years following Independence in 1960, the military ruled for 29 of them. Since 1999, however, a civilian government has been in place and the first handover of power to a new government (though from the same party) occurred in April/May 2003. The system of governance is presidential and federal. Over the past four decades, the original three large regional entities that existed at the time of Independence have been subdivided to a current total of 36 states, plus the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. Within the states there is a total of 774 local government areas. 1.3 The monetary economy is dominated by the oil and gas sector. Since the early 1970s, this sector has contributed a significant proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) (generally 30–40 percent) and its impact on the revenues of all levels of government has been even greater (currently averaging over 80 percent). In spite of this potential engine for economic growth, real GDP has increased relatively slowly (for example, by around just 2.4 percent a year over the 1990s) and there has been little growth in per capita income. The current estimate is US$290, which compares with an estimate of US$1,100 for 1980 (World Bank 1996). Since 1997 the non-oil economy that directly provides employment and income to most Nigerians has been increasing at an annual average rate of 3.9 percent. 1.4 Volatility in oil revenues is large and, correspondingly, so is the share of government revenues in GDP. In 1997 and 2001, consolidated revenue shares were 20 percent and 47 percent respectively. Overall, the average share is much higher than in most other African countries.1 And it is the competition for these revenues among the three tiers of government––and particularly between the federal and state governments––that has defined the political relationships over the years. Between 1960 and 1991, for instance, the formulae for sharing

1 Across all Sub-Saharan African countries the average share of government expenditure in GDP between 1990 and 1999 was 29.2 percent (World Bank 2001, table 7.4).

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revenues were altered 16 times. Large governments together with limited public accountability, particularly under military governments, have also encouraged high levels of corruption. 1.5 Following the large increase in the number of states, the country has been sub-divided into six geographic-political zones. While the source of a major share of GDP and public revenues is centralized, there are wide socio-economic differences across the country with the three southern and North Central zones enjoying higher indicators in virtually all aspects of well-being, including education, health, and the proportion of the population estimated to be living in poverty. In addition to socio-economic differences, the population is divided roughly equally between Christians and Muslims. In general this mirrors a south-north divide, although not entirely. Finally, within states there is often significant ethnic heterogeneity. Three major groups dominate: the Hausa/Fulani, Yoruba, and Igbo with the remainder of the population spread across some 350 others. Interethnic rivalries, particularly in the so-called middle belt and in the oil producing areas, have intensified in recent years resulting in considerable violence. 1.6 Many of the significant gains in social development that accrued in the first 25 years of independence were given up, or at best stagnated, during the last decade and a half of military rule. These included school enrollments, infant mortality, life expectancy, fertility rates, and access to improved water sources. The atmosphere in Nigeria in 1999 was that of a post-conflict society and, as one example, commentators regularly described the government education system as broken at all levels. Since the inauguration of the civilian government, the situation has exhibited some signs of improvement and there is a greater willingness among public officials to face issues with a more reasonable expectation that positive changes can be made. To develop this willingness further, there is a need for a more detailed understanding of the current levels of social and economic development. This report contributes to such an effort for the education system. In its preparation, however, it soon became clear that there are significant barriers even to gaining a good approximation of the situation. It is, for example, extremely difficult to assess the coverage of the primary and secondary education system; its efficiency and effectiveness; the levels and distributions of financial resources; and the patterns of staffing. The education system is too important to be operated and planned on the basis of the limited amount of good quality information that currently exists. 1.7 In this introductory chapter, some of the major factors that impinge on the education system are discussed further. These include the political and administrative setting, particularly as it affects the delivery of education; the level and age distribution of the population and the projected changes over the next two decades; the structure and dynamics of the economy and related employment and earnings patterns; the nature of Nigeria’s system of fiscal federalism and trends in federal, state, and local government revenues and expenditures; and some initial considerations of the sources, levels, and distributions of public expenditure on education. Some of these factors are examined in greater detail in subsequent chapters.

Political and administrative structure

1.8 Nigeria is a federal republic and the current administrative and political structure is based on the 1999 Constitution. The system is presidential with states run by directly elected

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governors and with federal and state houses of assembly. Ministers in the federal and state governments are appointed by the president and governors respectively and are not necessarily, in fact are rarely, elected members of the houses of assembly. 1.9 An important characteristic of the Constitution is that many of the powers given to the states are exercised concurrently with the federal government. Alongside this, local governments can only exercise authority in accordance with enabling legislation passed by the states. This has led to a continuing debate over which tier of government, particularly federal or state, is best equipped to deal with various areas of policy and service provision and whether the division of government resources is appropriate. 1.10 At Independence, the federal government was relatively weak in relation to the three virtually autonomous regional political entities, each with a different ethnic base and its own revenue base (World Bank 2002a). Over time, and particularly during the long periods of military rule, and as a result of the division of the large regions and the proliferation of states, the power of the federal government grew. The return of civilian rule is beginning to alter this relationship between the federal government and the states. State governments are increasingly challenging the center by demanding greater devolution of powers with a commensurate increase in resources. In the absence of a forum for reallocating powers, the states have been increasing pressure for changes in the formula for allocating centrally collected revenues. Because this source of revenue dominates the overall revenues of each level of government, its distribution is the prime determinant of the relative distribution of political power in the federation. The allocations among the three tiers of government, as well as between states and between local governments, are determined by formulae that although changeable have a legal basis. Allocations are a right, and not a transfer from one tier of government to another. Unlike in several federations in both industrial and developing countries, there are few transfers from the central government to state governments to support activities implemented by the states. There are, however, institutions located in the states that are owned and funded by the federal government. 1.11 As the number of states and, particularly, local governments has increased over time so has a concern over their ability to carry out some of the service delivery functions. A central point emphasized in this report is that the way in which the forces determining the distribution of powers and resources between the federal and state governments play out in the coming few years could have a profound effect on the management, resourcing, and outcomes of the education system.

Demographic structure

1.12 Census results in Nigeria have been contentious and, at times, have not been accepted by the government of the day. The most recent Census in 1991 provided an aggregate figure of 89 million, which was accepted by government. Fertility rates remain very high at 5.1 and the post-census enumeration survey estimated a population growth for the mid-1990s of 3.1 percent (National Population Commission, 2000). Projections made by the Population Commission indicate a total population for 2003 of 135 million. 1.13 Fertility rates show relatively little variation across the urban and rural populations but on average, women in the north will have two more children than those in the rest of the country. Compared with many other African, and particularly non-African, countries the

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fertility rate continues to decline only marginally by level of education from 6.1 for those women with no schooling to 4.9 for those with a completed secondary schooling (table 1.1). However, while the geographic and educational differences in fertility rates are relatively small, they are increasing. Variations in the number of children ever born to women in the various groups aged 40–49 years are much smaller. ______________________________________________________________________ Table 1.1. Fertility Rates by Background Characteristics of Women, 1999 Characteristic Total Fertility Rate Children ever born

women 40-49 years ____________________________________________________________________________________ Urban 4.50 5.65 Rural 5.44 6.32 Northeast 6.79 6.37 Northwest 6.45 5.64 Southeast 4.64 6.92 Southwest 4.50 5.79 Central 4.49 5.81 No education 6.13 6.06 Primary 5.55 6.76 Secondary 4.91 5.70 Higher ….. 4.49 Total 5.15 6.12 ____________________________________________________________________________________ Source: National Population Commission 2000, table 3.2. 1.14 Changes in birth rates can have dramatic effects on the number of school-age children. In many Latin American and Asian countries, the numbers are falling thereby reducing the potential demand for education services. Across Africa this trend is less evident and the projections of age groups for Nigeria show increasing numbers of children who will be requiring education over the next three decades. The current birth rate is estimated at 3.9 percent falling to around 2.6 percent by 2030. Table 1.2 presents estimates of the school-age groups up to 2045. Not until after 2030 is the size of the primary school age group (6–11 years) expected to decrease and, in the meantime, the increases are quite large. Between 2005 and 2030 the number is expected to increase by more than 5 million. The age group associated with junior-secondary schooling will not begin to decrease until after 2035 and that with senior secondary schooling until three years later. As a whole, the public finance gains resulting from declining school-age groups common in many countries are not anticipated to accrue to Nigeria for at least another three decades. At their peaks, the number of children in the primary, junior-secondary, and senior-secondary age ranges will be 20 percent, 37 percent, and 54 percent higher respectively than in 2005, posing particular problems for the provision of secondary schooling. Across states, however, there will be differences because, as shown in table 1.1, the fertility rate varies from 4.5 in the Central and South West regions to 6.8 in the North East. Unfortunately, it is in those states where educational coverage is lowest that birth rates are highest. On a more positive note, while the school-age population continues to grow, so too does the labor force, and at a faster rate. The proportion of the total population aged between 20 and 60 years is projected to increase from 40.0 percent in 2000 to 47.4 percent in 2025.

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______________________________________________________________________ Table 1.2. Projected Population by School-Age Groups, 2005 to 2045 (‘000) Age Group 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 ____________________________________________________________________________________ 6–11 23,927 24,468 25,821 27,213 28,534 29,282 28,664 26,474 25,761 12–14 10,561 11,883 12,093 12,777 13,458 14,122 14,509 14,180 13,152 15–17 9,393 11,060 11,608 12,178 12,912 13,662 14,216 14,417 13,470 ____________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Derived by staff from World Bank 2002d.

Economic growth and structure of employment

Economic growth.

1.15 Since emerging in the late 1960s, the oil sector has continued to grow in importance, accounting in 2000 for around 40 percent of GDP, 82 percent of consolidated government revenues, and more than 95 percent of export earnings. Agriculture (including fisheries and forestry), which provides the main source of livelihood for the population, remains the principal non-oil source of GDP amounting to 30 percent in 2000. Significant in the services sector is wholesale and retail trade, with a share of 13 percent, while government services provide an additional 6 percent. The share of manufacturing remains very low at around 4 percent and construction and utilities contribute less than 1 percent. 1.16 In spite of the potential advantages of a large oil sector, the growth of GDP has been disappointing, increasing by more than 4 percent in only four years between 1977 and 1995 (Federal Office of Statistics, no date) and once again in 2000. Between 1981 and 1990 it averaged 2.8 percent a year with a per capita change of -0.3 percent. In the following decade, growth averaged 2.5 percent and per capita GDP again fell. Immediately following the return of the civilian government, oil prices increased rapidly and GDP growth in 2000 recorded an increase of 4.2 percent followed by 2.9 percent in 2001. Provisional estimates for 2002, however, suggest negative growth. Table 1.3 presents estimates of the growth of GDP and its composition between 1996 and 2001.

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_______________________________________________________________________________ Table 1.3. GDP Growth and Composition, 1996–2001 (percent) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 _______________________________________________________________________________ GDP Growth 4.3 2.7 1.5 0.9 4.2 2.9 Oil 6.9 1.4 -1.8 -5.4 6.6 0.5 Non-Oil 2.9 3.5 3.4 4.2 3.0 4.1 Agriculture 4.1 4.2 4.0 5.2 2.9 3.8 Secondary 1.2 1.7 -1.8 3.4 3.6 6.2 Tertiary 1.9 3.0 3.7 3.2 2.9 3.8 GDP Composition Oil 43.6 38.9 27.0 29.5 38.6 30.2 Agriculture 30.8 33.7 39.0 34.9 28.9 34.8 Secondary 5.5 5.8 6.2 5.6 4.8 5.1 Tertiary 20.1 21.6 27.7 30.1 27.6 29.9 __________________________________________________________________________ Sources: International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2002, table 1; World Bank 2002b, table 1.2 (for 1996 composition).

Employment.

1.17 Information on employment in Nigeria is scarce. The most recent comprehensive description was undertaken during the 1991 Population Census. In order to obtain some sense of the dynamics of the occupational distribution, these are described in table 1.4 for the labor force as a whole and for the 20–29 year olds. In 1991, 45 percent of the total labor force was employed in agriculture with an additional 22 percent in sales and 14 percent in manual unskilled, semiskilled, and skilled occupations. A total of 15 percent was employed in white collar and high-level technical occupations. The distribution of younger and more highly educated 20–29 year olds, however, showed some differences. For this group, agricultural work was down by 12 percentage points to one-third of the total, and an upward shift was seen in each of the other occupational groups. The largest increases, however, were in sales and in blue-collar manual workers. The proportion working in white collar and higher-level technical occupations was only 4 percentage points higher at 19 percent. Apart from the shift out of agriculture, these differences in the occupational distribution across the labor force as a whole, and across 20–29 year olds, were quite small reflecting an economy undergoing little structural change.

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___________________________________________________________________________________ Table 1.4. Distribution of the Labor Force by Occupation, All Ages and 20—29-Year-Olds, 1991 (percent) Occupational Group All Ages 20–29 Years ____________________________________________________________________________________ Admin./Managerial 2.5 2.7 Clerical 3.1 4.3 Service 3.2 4.0 Prof./Technical 6.8 8.2 Prod./Trans./Laborers 13.8 18.5 Sales 22.3 26.0 Agricultural 45.0 33.1 Other 3.3 3.2 __________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Federal Office of Statistics 2002, table 226. 1.18 Since the 1991 Census, the largest survey of the labor force was undertaken through the National Agricultural Sample Census 1993/94 (Federal Office of Statistics, 1995). This highlighted important variations across the country. The proportion of the labor force engaged in agriculture across states ranged from 20.7 percent in Ogun to 91.2 percent in Sokoto. Across South West states the average was 29.2 percent compared with 83.7 percent in the North East. 1.19 One of the few statistical series collected on the labor force is the rate of open unemployment. The most recent published data are for June 2002 and are described in table 1.5. Overall, the recorded rates are low at around 3.2 percent. However, in some states they are around 10 percent. Half of the unemployed had had a secondary education and a similar proportion was under 25 years of age.2

2 These data are based on the International Labor Organization definition of unemployment, which requires that an individual did not work for at least one hour in the previous week. The Federal Office of Statistics also collects information on those who worked for less than 39 hours in the previous week. In June 2002, 12.6 percent of the labor force was in this category, including 14.2 percent in rural areas.

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____________________________________________________________________________ Table 1.5. National Unemployment Rates and Some Distributions, 2002 (percent) ______________________________________________________________________ Unemployment Rates

National 3.2 Urban 3.7 Rural 3.0 Rivers 13.3 Kogi 10.8 Imo 10.5 Akwa Ibom 9.3

No Schooling 1.0 Primary 1.7 Secondary 9.5 Post-Secondary 5.1

Distribution of Unemployed

Male 56.4 Female 43.6

No Schooling 14.0 Primary 21.0 Secondary 55.2 Post-Secondary 9.7

15–24 years 55.5 25–44 years 34.2 45–59 years 4.2 60+ years 4.7

__________________________________________________________ Source: Federal Office of Statistics 2003. 1.20 Two studies published recently by the National Manpower Board surveyed the labor force in detail in eight large metropolitan areas and across Lagos State and provide a somewhat less optimistic picture (National Manpower Board 2000a, 2000b). Some of the results are described in table 1.6. Across the metropolitan areas, the average rate of unemployment is 17.2 percent and between 10 and 20 percent in six of the eight surveyed. The outlier is Port Harcourt with a rate of almost 35 percent. The unemployment rate for secondary graduates averages around 23 percent but is much higher in most of the southern cities. The rate for polytechnic graduates averages 15 percent, but it is the rate for university graduates that is most alarming. The average rate is 21.7 percent but in Aba, Lagos, and Port Harcourt it is more than 25 percent. Only in Kano and Jos are the rates very low.

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____________________________________________________________________________ Table 1.6. Unemployment Rates by Level of Education, Lagos State and Eight Metropolitan Areas, 1998 (percent) Location Overall Secondary Polytechnic University ___________________________________________________________________________________ Port Harcourt 34.7 48.5 28.4 29.1 Abuja 19.2 29.9 23.2 16.0 Ibadan 17.5 22.4 24.0 19.0 Jos 16.3 26.0 16.0 5.0 Aba 16.2 15.2 30.0 26.3 Lagos 12.9 16.5 19.5 29.4 Kano 10.7 15.3 21.0 0.0 Maiduguri 8.9 13.6 18.0 13.3 Average 17.2 23.5 15.0 21.7 Lagos State 17.2 22.6 23.2 17.3 Sources: National Manpower Board 2000a; National Manpower Board 2000b.

1.21 Higher levels of education, however, do appear to result in higher levels of earning for those who are able to gain employment. From a total of 4,797 respondents, average monthly earnings are presented in table 1.7. Given the nature of the set of respondents––those in urban employment––it is not surprising that the earnings of those with no education are similar to those with primary schooling. There is, however, a premium for secondary schooling of 27 percent. Among those with a post-secondary qualification there is some variation. On average, there is little salary increment for college of education graduates compared with secondary school graduates, although the situation is different for men and women. For men the increment is negative but for women it is around a 40 percent increase. This level of education is the only one for which male and female earnings are similar. In all other cases, female earnings are considerably lower. Polytechnic graduates earn significantly more than secondary graduates, but it is university first-degree graduates who gain the most from tertiary education. For both males and females, their earnings are more than twice those of secondary school graduates. While unemployment rates are around 20 percent, those university graduates who are employed do appear to receive a significant earnings differential over less-educated workers. However, because the earnings data are not provided by age, this conclusion needs caution. ______________________________________________________________________ Table 1.7. Total, Male and Female Monthly Earnings in Eight Metropolitan Areas by Level of Education, 1998, Naira Education Total Male Female ____________________________________________________________________________________ Less than Primary 3,879 4,710 2,930 Primary 3,741 4,265 2,985 Secondary 4,767 5,540 3,555 College of Education 5,044 5,198 4,933 Polytechnic/Univ. Cert. 8,059 8,501 6,975 University Degree 11,728 12,968 8,737 __________________________________________________________________________________ Source: National Manpower Board 2000b, table 4.12.

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Poverty levels and well-being

Poverty.

1.22 Low levels of overall GDP and rates of economic growth combined with increasing inequality resulted in a substantial increase in the incidence of poverty between 1980 and 1996, the most recent year for which data are available. According to the Federal Office of Statistics (1999), in 1980, 28 percent of the population lived in poverty compared with almost 66 percent in 1996. The proportion of core poor increased from 6 percent to 29 percent.3 Not surprisingly, the proportion of states with at least half of their population defined as poor increased significantly such that in 1996 only one state (Rivers) was not in this position. _______________________________________________________________________ Table 1.8. Poverty Distributions Across Geo-Political Zones, 1996 Zone Non-Poor Moderately Poor Core Poor ___________________________________________________________________________________ North East 29.9 35.7 34.4 North West 22.8 39.9 37.3 Central 35.4 36.7 28.0 South East 46.5 35.3 18.2 South West 39.1 33.4 27.5 South South 41.8 34.8 23.4 _______________________________________________________________________________ Source: Federal Office of Statistics 1999, table 9. 1.23 Across the geo-political zones, the share of moderately poor was surprisingly similar, ranging between 33 and 40 percent of the total population (table 1.8). However, the measure of core poverty showed wider variations with around 37 percent in the North West and 34 percent in the North East compared with an average of 24 percent across the remaining zones and 18 percent in the South East. The proportions of non-poor ranged from 23 percent in the North West to 46 percent in the South East. 1.24 With the high overall incidence of poverty, it is not surprising that poor people are distributed across all educational levels. What is more interesting, and of concern, is that poverty levels increased rapidly between 1985 and 1996 in those households headed by relatively well-educated men or women, as shown in table 1.9. Poverty has become so widespread across the country that almost half of the households headed by a person with some post-secondary education are in that category. The proportion doubled over the decade. However, it is still clear that those households headed by a person with no education are much more likely to be poor than one headed by a person who has at least completed a primary schooling. Furthermore, the data on the core poor indicate sharper reductions by educational level. The probability of a household being in this category is twice as high if headed by a person with no schooling compared with one headed by a person with post-secondary schooling.

3 The moderate poverty line was set at the equivalent of two-thirds of the mean per capita expenditure and the core poverty line was set at equivalent to one-third.

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_________________________________________________________________________________ Table 1.9. Proportion of Poor Households by Educational Level of Household Head, 1985 and 1996 (percent) Level of Education 1985 1996 1996 Poor Poor Core Poor _________________________________________________________________________________ No Education 51.3 72.6 34.3 Primary 40.6 54.4 24.3 Secondary 27.2 52.0 21.2 Post-Secondary 24.2 49.2 15.3 __________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Federal Office of Statistics 1999, table 13.

1.25 Studies on economic growth, income inequality, and poverty for Nigeria––such as that by Aigbokhan (2000) for the period 1986 to 1997––indicate that while there was some positive economic growth throughout, poverty and inequality worsened. The trickle down effect of growth was not evident. Economic growth that does not derive from increases in labor productivity in sectors where the poor work will not decrease poverty in itself. Labor productivity in agriculture and related rural and urban activities needs to increase. Many studies in other countries have indicated that this can result from a spread of education and is more likely to occur once a threshold of educational coverage across communities has been crossed and new behaviors widely accepted. Earlier studies have estimated such a threshold as an average of 4–5 years of schooling. The 1999 Demographic and Health Survey for Nigeria has estimated the median years of education in rural Nigeria for men at 3.1 years and for women at 1.7 years (although it is of course higher for younger age groups and for particular states). An expansion of the coverage of basic education is required to accelerate the economic returns, and positive changes in social behavior such as those affecting two examples discussed below––infant and child mortality, and child nutrition.

Infant and child mortality.

1.26 Levels of infant and child mortality are strongly related to the education of mothers in Nigeria, as elsewhere. The under-5 mortality rate is reduced by 35/1000 for primary schooled mothers and by a further 26/1000 for those with a secondary schooling (table 1.10). Most of the reductions occur through a fall in child mortality, and these are more likely to be influenced by mothers’ behavior than is the case for infant mortality. For mothers with no education, the child mortality rate is higher than that for infant mortality. One cause of child mortality is the lack of vaccinations, which again varies by mothers’ education. An example is tetanus toxoid. Just 24 percent of children whose mothers had no education received two doses or more, compared with 54 and 71 percent of those with a primary and secondary schooled mother respectively. In addition to reducing the suffering of children and parents, reduced levels of under-5 mortality will have a variety of economic benefits.

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_____________________________________________________________________ Table 1.10. Levels of Infant and Child Mortality by Mothers Education (per 1,000 live births) Infant Child Under-5 Mortality __________________________________________________________________________ No Education 76.9 86.6 156.8 Primary 71.2 54.5 121.8 Secondary 59.0 39.3 95.9 Higher 40.5 13.0 53.0 __________________________________________________________________________ Source: National Population Commission 2000.

Child nutritional status.

1.27 Another cause of child death, and also of physical and mental stunting is malnutrition. Again, levels of malnutrition are closely associated with mothers’ education (table 1.11). There are large reductions in the proportions of children whose weight-for-age is two and three times below the median for those children whose mothers have a primary schooling. Nutritional well-being in childhood has been shown to have large benefits. It affects performance in school as well as physical and mental capacity in later life. The relationships between education and health seeking behavior and outcomes described above depend on changed behavior, often resulting from increased information that comes from being literate. ___________________________________________________________________________ Table 1.11. Weight-for-Age Measures of Child Nutritional Status by Mothers’ Education (percent)

Below 3 SD Below 2 SD

_______________________________________________________________________________ No Education 17.8 36.3 Primary 6.8 23.9 Secondary 5.8 19.5 _______________________________________________________________________________ SD = standard deviation Source: National Population Commission 2000.

Overview of government finance

Aspects of fiscal federalism.

1.28 Nigeria is governed through federal structures and issues of fiscal federalism are central to both political debate and the delivery of public services. The state and local governments require substantial revenues to carry out their constitutional responsibilities. Compared with the older political federations, such as the United States, Australia, and Canada, as well as younger ones such as Brazil and India, in Nigeria the lower tiers of government are funded more through revenue sharing arrangements than through locally collected taxes. The statutory allocations have typically averaged more than 80 percent of total state revenues since 1975.

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1.29 Distributions of centrally collected revenues are of two types: (a) across the federal government, all state governments, and all local governments; and (b) between state governments and across local governments. Not surprisingly, the criteria on which distributions are made have been center-stage politically throughout the four decades since Independence. A radical change was made in 1978 away from dividing the revenues from specific taxes toward a division of total revenues. Since then, allocations have been made from the Federation Account, and from centrally collected value added tax receipts. The sources of the Account are the receipts from all the major taxes and duties on petroleum, profits, imports, and exports. Initially, 55 percent of the total revenues were retained by the federal government, 32.5 percent allocated to the state governments, and 10 percent to the local governments, with the remaining 2.5 percent allocated on separate criteria. These shares have changed many times over the years. Until recently, they were 48.5 percent to the federal government, 24 percent to the states, and 20 percent to local governments after an initial 13 percent Derivation Grant to oil states had been deducted as a first charge on the Account. The remaining 7.5 percent was for special projects, determined by the federal government, and again deducted as part of a first charge. Since the Supreme Court ruling in April 2002, which stated that first charge deductions (apart from the Derivation Grant) were unconstitutional, an interim arrangement has been put in place, but a new set of shares has been recommended by the Fiscal Allocation Commission. These are 46.6 percent, 33.0 percent, and 20.4 percent (after the derivation charge) for the federal, state, and local governments respectively. If accepted by the legislature, this arrangement would raise the states’ share quite considerably.

1.30 The state governments’ overall allocation is divided between states mainly on the basis of equal shares and population, with a small part depending on indicators such as primary school enrollments and fiscal effort. Allocations between local governments are made on a broadly similar basis. Since independent sources of revenue to the state and local governments are few, variations in the aggregate revenues of the Federation Account resulting from fluctuations in world oil prices (and production) produce large annual fluctuations in incomes, particularly in the absence of an effective revenue stabilization fund.

Consolidated government revenue and expenditure.

1.31 Government revenues have grown significantly since the mid-1990s, for each of the three tiers of government. As a share of GDP they increased from 22.5 percent in 1995 to 47.0 percent in 2001 (World Bank, 2002b, table 5.1). All of this increase was driven by the energy sector whose payments rose from 12.0 percent of GDP to 36.8 percent over the same time period. In 2001, almost four-fifths of government revenues were derived from the sector. During this period, the price of Nigerian oil varied between US$13.1 (1998) and US$28.2 (2000) a barrel. 1.32 As explained above, most of the consolidated government revenues are distributed across governments from the Federation Account. Table 1.12 describes this distribution among the federal, state, and local governments between 1995 and 2001. The particularly large increase for the state governments in 2001 resulted partly from their success in overturning measures undertaken by the federal government to retain part of the revenues to bolster the revenue stabilization fund.

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______________________________________________________________________________________ Table 1.12. Allocation of the Federation Account Revenues Among Levels of Government, 1995–2001 (N billion) Level of Government 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 ______________________________________________________________________________________ Federal 73.5 81.1 97.3 67.2 211.8 515.0 530.6 State 39.2 41.5 48.1 33.2 104.8 256.5 391.3 Local 32.7 34.6 40.1 27.7 87.3 213.8 245.5 ______________________________________________________________________________________ Sources: IMF 2002, table 14; World Bank 2002b, table 5.4. 1.33 As the oil revenues have jumped in recent years, the overall share of internally generated revenue across all states fell from 20 percent in 1998 to just 11 percent in 2001. While overall revenues increased six-fold between 1997 and 2001, internally generated revenues doubled. Apart from Lagos State, which raises around 40 percent of its total revenues, only three other states––Delta, Enugu, and Kano––raise above or around 15 percent. Local governments are even more dependent on external sources of revenue. According to the revised estimates for 2001, across all local governments only 5.9 percent of their revenues were generated internally (Central Bank of Nigeria 2002).

1.34 Per capita state government revenues vary quite substantially across states. These are described below for 13 states for 1999 and 2000 (World Bank, 2002c). States are divided into two sets––those that did and those that did not benefit from the implementation of the new derivation allocation in 2000. ____________________________________________________________________________ Table 1.13. State Government Revenue Per Capita Across 13 States, 1999 and 2000 (1995 constant naira) State 1999 2000 __________________________________________________________________________________ A States Akwa Ibom 893 4,025 Cross River 860 1,897 Delta 1,495 5,651 Imo 652 1,705 Ondo 688 1,341 B States Bauchi 662 1,292 Ebonyi 843 1,810 Kano 493 983 Kwara 1,129 2,666 Lagos 1,806 1,884 Oyo 688 1,340 Sokoto 1,285 2,496 ____________________________________________________________________________ Note: A States received income through the derivation allocations, while B States did not. Source: World Bank 2000c, table 2.5. 1.35 Since the mid-1990s government expenditures have grown enormously in both nominal and real terms, and as a share of GDP. Between 1995 and 2001, federal government expenditures increased from N249 billion to N1467 billion, while those of the state and local

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governments increased from N109 billion to N843 billion (International Monetary Fund 2002, annex tables 11 and 15). Table 1.14 presents expenditures as shares of GDP for each level of government separately and combined. Reflecting increases in oil revenues, the share has increased overall from around 18 percent to 50 percent. At the same time, the contribution of the state and local governments has increased from 30 percent to 40 percent of total expenditure. __________________________________________________________________ Table 1.14. Federal, State, and Local Government Expenditures as Share of GDP, 1995–2001 (percent) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 ________________________________________________________________________________ Federal 12.9 10.6 13.8 18.4 29.3 28.4 29.9 State and Local 5.5 4.2 5.3 7.1 8.8 15.5 20.0 All Government 18.4 14.8 19.1 25.5 38.1 43.9 49.9 ___________________________________________________________________ Source: IMF 2002.

1.36 The favorable revenue situation facing Nigerian governments in most recent years is also evident through the high proportion of expenditure that supports capital items. For the federal government, this proportion was 41 percent in 2000, excluding first line charges. For the state and local governments, it averaged 43 percent and 28 percent respectively between 1997 and 2001. Equally, the relatively low proportion of recurrent expenditures that have been allocated to wages and salaries by the federal government (51 percent between 1995 and 1999) suggests few real budgetary constraints in recent years, compared with many other countries.4 1.37 Of total federal government expenditures, interest payments to both foreign and domestic creditors were equal to 18 percent in 1997 and to 20 percent in 2001. As a share of total government expenditure they fell from 13 percent to 12 percent. In recent years, between 43 and 65 percent of the federal government recurrent expenditures has been allocated to a combination of these payments and to pensions and contingencies (transfers). Of the remainder, the allocation to administration is the highest as described in table 1.15. Expenditures on economic services have been relatively low throughout the period (5–9 percent) while the social and community service have been allocated around 13 percent each year. Of this, over half has been for education. Capital expenditures are dominated by the category economic services. For the social sectors the share has been small, although it did increase to 11–12 percent in 2000 and 2001.

4 This proportion increased to 84 percent in 2000 following the large wage increases.

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______________________________________________________________________ Table 1.15. Allocation of Federal Government Recurrent and Capital Expenditures, 1997–2001 (percent) Category 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 ____________________________________________________________________________________ Recurrent Transfers 43 49 65 54 46 Administration 39 31 22 26 31 Economic Services 5 7 5 6 9 Social 13 13 8 13 14 Capital Transfers 16 16 23 20 17 Administration 18 11 9 22 11 Economic Services 63 65 64 46 59 Social 3 8 3 11

______________________________________________________________________ Source: Central Bank of Nigeria 2001, Annual Report, tables 5.3 and 5.4. 1.38 The sectoral distribution of expenditures by state governments is more difficult to present because no agency has the responsibility for coordinating this information. The patterns of recurrent expenditures, in particular, are not available. Some of the results of a set of case studies of nine states that analyzed educational expenditures are summarized in the following section and are discussed in more detail in chapter 3. The Central Bank undertakes an Annual Survey of Local Government Councils and Federation Accounts, and reports on the distribution of capital expenditures. As in the case of the federal government, across local governments economic services receive the largest amount. Between 1997 and 2001, the shares were 33 percent for administration, 51 percent for economic activities, and 16 percent for social and community activities.

Overview of public spending on education

1.39 International comparisons of educational expenditure, which are periodically made by the World Bank and the several United Nations agencies, rarely include Nigeria. The most recent example is United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization’s (UNESCO) EFA Global Monitoring Report 2002. At best, expenditure tables present federal government data only. In this introduction to the financing of education in Nigeria, the aggregate results of some estimations of federal, state, and local government expenditures on education are presented. More details are presented in chapter 3.

Federal government. Federal government expenditures on education are below 10 percent of its overall expenditures. Overall, between 1997 and 2002, the total shares varied between 9.9 and 7.6 percent and the trend was largely downward. Typically, between 70 and 80 percent of expenditures are for recurrent activities. However, in 2000, the capital allocation increased to 45 percent of the total, in line with the overall large increase in capital expenditure in the federal government’s budget.

State governments. The share of total capital expenditures made by all state governments, which is allocated to education, increased from 7.3 percent in 1996 to 9.0

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percent in 2002. Similar information is not available for recurrent expenditures. Education expenditure as a share of total state government expenditure has been estimated through case studies and other sources of data for 12 states for 1995 to 1999. Although varying considerably between states, the shares are disturbing in two aspects. First, the median share in 1999 was 18.0 percent, which appears to be low for this level of government which does not have many of the obligations of a central government. Furthermore, in every state except one for which time series data was available for over two years, the share for education fell.

Local governments. Local governments essentially fund the salaries of primary school teachers. Through the 1990s the cost of primary teacher salaries was deducted at source from the local governments’ allocations from the Federation Account, which contributes the majority of local government income (see chapter 3). Between 1998 and 2001 teacher salaries have accounted for between 35 and 53 percent of all recurrent expenditures and for between 24 and 44 percent of total expenditures.

Aggregate public spending. The main problem in arriving at estimates of total public spending on education, and the share of GDP and total government expenditure, is the lack of information on state government expenditure. The case studies referred to above are just a sample of states and are for the second half of the 1990s. The case study estimates were inflated according to shares of total enrollments for an approximation of total spending across all 36 states. Adding this estimate to the more comprehensive data for the federal and local governments, resulted in an overall approximation of spending on education in Nigeria in 1998. The result was equivalent to 2.3 percent of the level of GDP and 14.2 percent of total government expenditure (federal, state, and local) Of this, 37 percent was contributed by the federal government, 37 percent by the combined state governments, and 26 percent by the local governments. 1.40 These estimates of government education expenditure in Nigeria as a share of GDP and of total government expenditure can be compared with the situation in other Sub-Saharan African countries. UNESCO’s World Education Report 2000 presents the data for 19 countries across Sub-Saharan Africa for 1996. The average share of GDP was 4.7 percent and of government expenditure was 19.6 percent.

1.41 Since 1998, both teachers’ salaries and total government revenues have increased substantially in Nigeria, although the increase in GDP has been much less pronounced. The impact of this on salary bills has been significant. For example, annual expenditures on primary teachers salaries across all states between 1998 and 2001 are recorded as having increased from N15 billion to N126 billion. This has led to significant changes in the share of total government expenditure, and of GDP, allocated to education, and in the distribution of sources. Estimates have been made for 2001 and are discussed in greater detail, including with all of the heroic assumptions, in chapter 3. Because government expenditures has increased at a much faster rate than has GDP over the past few years, it is estimated that expenditure on education as a share of total government expenditure increased from 14.2 to 17.5 percent, and as a share of GDP from 2.3 to 6.2 percent. These estimates are based on partial information. More accurate estimations must await the introduction, by the federal government, of systematic procedures for recording state government expenditures.

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Conclusions and some implications

1.42 How do the political, demographic, economic and fiscal factors, and the widespread levels of poverty, described above affect the demand for and supply of educational services? 1.43 The political environment within which the education system operates is extremely important in Nigeria. Each of the three tiers of government has some role in both managing and financing the system, and the way in which the forces determining the distribution of powers and resources between the federal and, particularly, state governments play out in the coming few years will have a profound effect on its management, resourcing, and outcomes. 1.44 The central position of the energy sector in the economy and, particularly, in providing public revenues provides an important aspect of uncertainty to the education sector, as it does to all services provided by government. The state and local governments, in particular, are extremely dependent on revenues that accrue from this sector and, in the absence of an effective revenue stabilization system, these are subject to wild swings. 1.45 While the level of household poverty has increased overall in recent years in Nigeria, its incidence remains closely related to the level of schooling of the household head. For levels of extreme poverty, this pattern is even stronger. This is also the case with many other measures of well-being. The poor, in turn have low levels of participation in the education system thus perpetuating this cycle of deprivation. There is much cross-country evidence to suggest that the power of education to improve economic and social conditions within communities is linked to how widespread it is. There is a minimum threshold level for greatest effectiveness. In many parts of Nigeria that threshold has not been reached. While the demand for schooling has to come from households, governments can influence it by altering the balance between perceived costs and benefits. 1.46 As the country liberalizes and governments reduce their ownership of economic enterprises, access to jobs will increasingly be determined by merit alone. It will become increasingly imperative for the educationally underdeveloped states to rapidly improve access to both basic and higher levels of education. 1.47 In contrast with most countries in Latin America and East Asia, and now in many of the states in the large South Asian countries, where the size of the school-age group is beginning to decrease, the fertility patterns in Nigeria are anticipated to result in continual increases over the next three decades. This will place even more stress on public finances in general. Furthermore, the fertility rate is highest in those parts of the country where educational coverage is currently the lowest, thus adding to the already strong financial pressure. 1.48 Fortunately, thanks to the existence of oil, and the large known reserves, government revenues in Nigeria are healthy compared with those in most countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. Until the recent wage increases that have affected the whole of the public service, a relatively small share has been spent on education. This low level of spending has resulted more from the low priority given to the sector, most noticeably by the federal government given its large share of total government revenues, and perhaps from the ways in which the revenues of the Federation Account have been distributed across the levels of government in comparison with their responsibilities, than from a real shortage of public resources.

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CHAPTER 2: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, ENROLLMENTS, AND STUDENT FLOWS

2.1 For several years following Independence, Nigeria was proud of its education system and its people were proud of being educated. The free education policy in the Western Region and the missionary expansion in the East; the development of good quality secondary grammar schooling throughout the federation together with the fee-paying secondary modern schools in the South to cater for excess demand; plus the expansion through the Ashby Commission of a university sector with half a dozen world class universities, all served to make this a system to be emulated. Over time, as the political economy worsened, much of the system appeared to stagnate and, during some periods, contract. The re-emergence of civilian government is raising hopes of an educational renaissance leading to higher levels of coverage and quality and ultimately to improved educational outcomes that are rewarded in the labor market and in the increased esteem with which educated people are regarded. 2.2 This report concentrates mainly on the school system, leaving examination of the tertiary sector to a later date. In this chapter, the focus is on coverage and it begins with a brief description of the structure and organization of the educational system This is followed by an examination of educational attainment across the entire population before moving to current enrollments and the intake levels into the primary cycle, survival rates through the cycle, transition rates into secondary schooling, and the survival rate there. Ultimately, it is the share of children who complete primary, basic, or secondary education that is of relevance, not simply the share who initially enroll. Later chapters examine issues in financing education, factors influencing its delivery in the classroom (including teacher deployment and training), and its management. 2.3 Nigeria is a large and diverse country, and the report attempts to reflect this. The educational experiences of various population groups differ widely. Average measures, while being a necessary shorthand, are of little use in understanding the actual coverage of the system and the remaining challenges. As far as possible, the examination of enrollments and the dynamics of student flow, therefore, is disaggregated according to gender, rural-urban location, household wealth status, and geo-political zone. 2.4 An important proviso is required at the start of this, and every subsequent, chapter. The data on many of the most important aspects of the education system in Nigeria are scarce and, where they do exist, are often partial, dated, and, in some cases, inconsistent. One of the aims of the report is to underline the need for a more efficient education management and information system.

Educational attainment

2.5 The literacy rate for the population aged six years and over was estimated to be 56.7 percent in the 1991 Population Census. The rate for males was 65.7 percent and for females, 47.8 percent. For the 15–24 years age group, which was the most recent to have benefited fully from the basic education system, the rates were significantly higher and 90.8 percent of males and 63.6 percent of females were recorded as literate with an overall rate of 77.2 percent. The averages, however, hide large differences among states. At the time of the Census there were 30 states (plus the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja). Those states with

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the highest and lowest rates for all 15—24-year-olds, and separately for females, are described in table 2.1. ______________________________________________________________________ Table 2.1. Literacy Rates by State, 15—24-year-olds, All and Females. 1991

Highest Lowest State Total Female State Total Female ___________________________________________________________________________________ Imo 95.0 94.2 Yobe 36.9 23.4 Anambra 93.1 92.4 Kebbi 40.5 28.6 Rivers 92.8 90.2 Sokoto 41.1 28.9 Abia 90.4 88.5 Borno 43.2 29.9 Osun 89.4 86.2 Taraba 47.5 26.8 Ondo 89.2 86.6 Katsina 48.4 35.5 __________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Federal Government of Nigeria 2001, table 51.

2.6 These data are the first of many descriptions of educational development that appear in this report and that highlight the wide differences between states and geo-political zones. The average literacy rates of 15–24 year olds in the six states with the highest rates was 91 percent compared with an average rate of 43 percent across the six states with the lowest rates. In the states with a high overall literacy rate, there was little difference between rates for males and females. In the lowest ranking states, there were significant differences. The average female rates in the two sets of states were 89.7 percent and 28.8 percent. The overall literacy rate for 1998 has been estimated to be 54 percent, with 61 percent for males and 46 percent for females (Federal Office of Statistics, 2002). If correct, this suggests no improvement in the rate since 1991. 2.7 Beyond estimations of literacy, the most recent assessment of the educational experiences and attainment of the population as whole is available from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) for 1999. The results can also be compared to those from a similar Survey undertaken in 1990 (table 2.2). The NDHS records the percentages of males and females, by rural and urban location and in various regions of the country, who had ever attended school. There are large gender and rural-urban differences. In 1999, 74 percent of males and 62 percent of females had ever attended school; and 80 percent of the urban population compared with 62 percent of the rural population. However, in both 1990 and 1999, the greatest differences were between regions. In the 1990 Survey, the country was divided into four regions: North East, North West, South East, and South West. In the 1999 Survey, the Central region was added. Roughly, in 1999 around 90 percent of all males in the two southern regions had attended school at some time in their lives and 75 percent in the Central region, while in the two northern regions the share was around 50 percent. For women, the shares were around 80, 60, and 35 percent respectively. The lower the overall level of attainment, the wider the gender difference.

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__________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 2.2. Percentage of the Population Ever Attended School by Gender, Location, and Region, 1990 and 1999, 6 Years and Over (percent) National Urban Rural NE NW SE SW Central __________________________________________________________________________________________ 1990 Ever Attended Male 56.7 77.6 48.8 34.5 27.2 73.2 82.2 n.a. Female 41.8 63.7 34.8 18.0 13.8 56.9 70.3 n.a. 1999 Ever Attended Male 73.9 86.1 68.8 49.9 48.4 90.9 87.1 74.9 Female 62.0 74.6 56.7 36.0 35.4 81.2 77.2 59.0 _________________________________________________________________________________________ n.a. = Not applicable. Note: In the 1990 Survey the country was divided into just four regions and the Central region was added in the 1999 Survey (see text). Source: National Population Commission, 2000, table 2.5. 2.8 The 1999 Survey disaggregates the total number of males and females who have had no schooling, by age group. Table 2.3 presents part of the findings. The data imply that in the previous 15 years the percentage of males aged 15–19 years with no schooling fell only from 18.5 percent to 13.2 percent, although for females the reduction appears to have been greater. Remarkably, almost 60 percent of males aged 55–59 years are recorded as having had some schooling. This would have been received in the late 1950s to the early 1960s, and demonstrates the relatively wide spread of education in the southern regions at that time. ______________________________________________________________________________ Table 2.3. Population Having No Schooling by Selected Age Group, Male and Female, 1999 (percent) Age Group Male Female ______________________________________________________________________________ 15–19 13.2 25.7 20–24 12.6 32.4 25–29 15.6 43.9 30–34 18.5 52.5 ______________________________________________________________________________ Source: National Population Commission 2000, table 2.11. 2.9 Another way of examining how the education system has evolved over past decades is through the proportions of different age groups who have completed a particular level of education. These are shown in table 2.4 for primary and junior-secondary schooling. Experiences differ across population groups.

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__________________________________________________________________________________ Table 2.4. Proportions of the Population Who Have Completed Primary and Junior Secondary School, Selected Age Groups, 1999 (percent) Education Level 15–19 20–29 30–39 40–49 ___________________________________________________________________________________ Primary (Grade 6)

All 70 67 57 42

Male Urban 88 88 84 74 Female Urban 79 74 67 42 Male Rural 70 69 62 46 Female Rural 57 53 35 20 Junior Secondary (Grade 9)

All (38) 46 37 23

Male Urban (61) 72 69 52 Female Urban (50) 57 47 21 Male Rural (33) 47 39 25 Female Rural (27) 30 16 7 __________________________________________________________________________________ Note: Figures in parenthesis are probably underestimates of junior secondary completion since some 15–19 year-olds may still have been be enrolled in this level of schooling. Source: Derived from National Population Commission 2000 data.

• The proportion of the age group that has completed primary education has increased

through time, from 42 percent to 70 percent, but the rate of increase has been slowing down considerably. Even higher increases in the shares are evident for junior secondary schooling. Forty-six percent of 20–29 year-olds have completed junior secondary schooling compared with 23 percent of 40–49 year olds.

• Almost 9 out of every 10 urban males aged 15-19 years have completed primary schooling and the rate has been consistently high for the past two decades. Almost three-quarters of 20 to 29 year-old urban males have completed junior-secondary schooling. Again, this is similar to the share of the 30–39 year-olds.

• The second highest performing group is urban females, around 80 percent of whom are now completing primary schooling. The proportion has been rising steadily through time. Of the 20–29 year olds, 57 percent have completed the junior-secondary cycle. The rates for both levels of education have risen more rapidly than those for males.

• Seventy percent of rural males are completing primary schooling compared with 46 percent in the early 1970s. Again though, the increase slowed in the 1980s and 1990s. Although the share completing junior secondary doubled over 20 years, less than half of the 20–29 year olds have completed this cycle.

• The performance of rural females is much lower than for the other groups, but it has been increasing the fastest. Currently, around 57 percent complete primary and 30 percent complete junior secondary. Twenty years ago, only 20 percent completed primary and only 7 percent completed junior secondary.

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2.10 Primary school completion rates of 15–19 year olds can also be disaggregated according to the wealth of the household. In 1999, children of the wealthiest one-fifth of households had a primary completion rate of 91 percent compared with 79 percent for those in the middle quintile and just 44 percent for those in the lowest quintile. For girls in the lowest quintile, the completion rate was only 36 percent. It is important to note, in the context of efforts to alleviate the high levels of poverty described in the previous chapter, that the difference in attainment between those children in the middle and the lowest quintile is much larger than that between those in the middle and highest quintile. It becomes increasingly difficult to boost educational attainment as the lowest income group begins to dominate the out-of-school group. 2.11 Table 2.4 presented average completion rates across the country. However, as indicated above in the discussion of literacy rates, the pace of educational development has been varied across the country. The completion rates presented in table 2.5 focus on primary rates of 15–19 year olds and junior-secondary rates of 20–29 year olds across the five regions delineated in the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) Survey.

_____________________________________________________________________ Table 2.5. Primary and Junior-Secondary Schooling Completion Rates by Region, Selected Age Groups, 1999 (percent) Region Primary JSS 15–19 years 20–29 years _________________________________________________________________________________ South West 91 63 South East 83 59 Central 70 48 North East 39 24 North West 34 20 ______________________________________________________________________ Source: Derived from National Population Commission 2000. 2.12 Primary completion levels in the South West are very high (91 percent), suggesting that universal schooling has almost been achieved. In the South East, the situation is also favorable (83 percent). The situation in the North East and North West, however, is different with primary completion rates averaging below 40 percent in 1999 (and just 26 and 25 percent respectively for girls). To demonstrate the regional differences further, the primary completion rates in the two southern regions were above 55 percent around 1970. While universal completion of primary schooling may be close in the southern regions, completion levels for junior secondary of today’s 20–29 year olds are considerably lower. Roughly three-fifths are currently completing junior secondary. In the north, the rate is less than one-quarter. For both the primary and junior secondary completion rates, the central region is closer to the south than to the north. 2.13 Another source of information on literacy and educational experience is the results of the Core Welfare Indicator Questionnaires (CWIQ) undertaken in 2001 and 2002 across eight states. Some of the results are presented in table 2.6. The adult literacy rate refers to those aged 15 years and over while that for ever attended school covers 6 year olds and over. In the table, the states are categorized into their current geo-political zones. The literacy rates for each of these states is lower than that recorded in the 1991 Population Census, which suggests that the standard set in the CWIQ surveys is more rigorous.

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_____________________________________________________________ Table 2.6. Adult Literacy and Rates of Ever Attended School, Selected States, 2001/02 (percent) Zone/State Adult Literacy (15+ years) Ever Attended School Male Female Poor Male Female Poor _________________________________________________________________________ North West Jigawa 51 22 26 32 17 25 Kebbi 32 11 15 26 11 15 North East Yobe 26 9 12 28 15 20 North Central Kogi 74 48 66 82 65 80 South East Abia 87 73 73 93 83 86 Enugu 80 66 64 87 76 77 South South Cross Rivers 79 60 57 89 77 76 South West Ekiti 78 63 69 83 71 77 _______________________________________________________________________ Note: Poor refers to members of the poorest one-fifth of households. Source: Various Core Welfare Indicator Questionnaire tables. 2.14 These data again corroborate the variations across the country. Male literacy rates are between 74 percent and 87 percent in each of the states in the southern zones and in North Central, while in the North West and North East they are much lower at 32 percent for Kebbi and 26 percent for Yobe. For females, the rates are 60 percent and over in the south compared with 11 percent in Kebbi and 9 percent in Yobe. In the south the overall rates for the poor are similar to those for females as a whole. In the north they are higher than for all females, indicating the particularly low rates for women. The overall higher set of rates for ever enrolled than for literacy (except in Jigawa) demonstrates either the higher levels of access to schooling for the younger age group or that some enrollees never attained literacy. The variations across states/zones are again stark––less than one-third of men and less than one-fifth of women in the North East and North West states have attended school compared with 80 and 70 percent respectively in most of the other states.

Enrollments, Rates, and Student Flows From School-Based Data

2.15 Measurement of school enrollments, and their transformation into net and gross enrollment ratios (NERs and GERs), has been problematic in Nigeria for many years because of the widespread inflation of enrollments in some states and the unreliability of school-age population estimates. As is also the case for educational expenditures, international tabulations of enrollment data tend to neglect Nigeria on the grounds that reliable information is not available. The recent EFA Monitoring Report (UNESCO, 2002) has gaps for Nigeria in most categories. However, for those responsible in Nigeria for the development of the education system best estimates have to be constructed and used. This section draws some

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conclusions regarding the current (or recent) levels of educational coverage, and the trends in these levels over the last decade or so, through the use of both school-based data and household survey data. There are two sources of school-based data: first, that collected for 1991–1998 by the Education Data Bank and released by the Statistics Division of the Ministry and, second, that collected through the school census in February 2002, which covers 1999–2002. As the discussion makes clear, the obvious anomalies in the time series data for several states suggest that the aggregate numbers for the 1991–1998 time series must be regarded warily. A similar, though less strongly held, conclusion is reached over some of the initial estimates produced through the School Census. 2.16 To improve understanding of the situation, the results of three sets of household surveys in which information has been collected on both educational attainment and current educational experience, as part of much broader inquiries, are also analyzed. The surveys are as follows: • The enrollment/non-enrollment data, at each age to 14 years, collected by the Nigeria

Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) for 1999.

• The Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) promoted by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) for 1999, which again collected age-specific information on enrollment, up to 25 years of age.

• The CWIQ undertaken across eight states during 2001 and 2002, which record information on participation in primary and secondary schooling.

Together, these sources are used to estimate enrollments in primary and secondary schooling, the level of coverage, and the partial dynamics of student flows.

School-based data 1991 to 1998.

2.17 Until 1998, the Ministry of Education annually collected school data. Totals arising from the detailed annual data sheets of the Education Bank correspond quite closely in most cases to those published by the Statistics Division. The official Ministry data on primary, junior-secondary schooling (JSS), and senior-secondary schooling (SSS) enrollments are presented in table 2.7 for 1991 to 1998.

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___________________________________________________________________ Table 2.7. Enrollments by Level of Education, Nigeria, 1991–1998 (‘000) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 ___________________________________________________________________ Primary 13,776 14,805 15,870 16,190 15,741 14,078 14,695 16,045 JSS 1,962 2,247 2,497 2,786 2,728 2,449 2,214 2,226 SSS 1,160 1,408 1,526 1,664 1,683 1,445 1,690 1,800 Universities 194 216 229 229 229 262 268 303 _______________________________________________________________________________ JSS = Junior secondary schooling. SSS = Senior secondary schooling. Note: The enrollments for universities do not include those run by the state governments. These grew through the 1990s and in 2002 their enrollments totaled 130,000 out of a combined federal and state total of 524,000 (Okebukola 2002). Sources: Primary enrollments are from Statistics Division, Federal Ministry of Education (FMOE). “Summary of Primary School Statistics in Nigeria 1991–98.” Junior and senior secondary enrollments are from Education Data Bank, FMOE. “National Summary of Primary and Post-Primary Statistics 1988 to 1998.” Federal university enrollment from Hartnett 2000. 2.18 Each set of enrollment data for primary, junior-secondary, and senior-secondary schooling shows a similar pattern with enrollments increasing between 1991 and 1994/5, falling in 1996/97, and then increasing again. Overall, the data indicate enrollment increases of 16.5 percent for primary, 13.5 percent for junior secondary, and 55.1 percent for senior secondary over the seven-year period. For primary and junior secondary, these overall rates are equal to just 2.1 and 1.7 percent growth a year––well below the birth rate––resulting in falling enrollment rates (see below). The relative growth rates imply that the transition rate from primary to junior secondary may have fallen slightly while that from junior to senior secondary appears to have increased. This would imply that the priority of state governments in the provision of secondary schooling has been on expanding the number of grades offered in existing schools rather than establishing new schools. For the universities, the first half of the decade saw limited growth increasing in later years. Overall, enrollments grew by 56 percent similar to the rate for senior-secondary students. However, state universities also expanded during the period, implying that university places became slightly more easily available for secondary school graduates. 2.19 Combining these primary and secondary enrollments with estimates of the size of the corresponding appropriate age groups, the Ministry has calculated gross enrollment rates (table 2.8 and graph 2.1). A second set is taken from the Government’s Education For All paper (2001). In addition, estimates have been made of the net enrollment rates and of the gross and net intake rates to primary 1. These trends in estimated gross enrollment rates for primary schooling over the period 1991 to 1998 are disturbing. According to Ministry rates, since 1993/94, the upward movement has reversed and the rate for 1998 is 81 percent compared with a peak of almost 92 percent in 1993, and with a net enrollment rate of 53 percent. Essentially, this implies that enrollments were increasing at a lower rate than the increase in the number of children. Equally disturbing, while the gross rate for males appears to have been similar in 1991 and 1998 at 92 and 90 percent, for girls the rate fell from 76 percent to 71 percent.

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___________________________________________________________________________ Table 2.8. Estimated Gross and Net Primary and Junior Secondary Enrollment Rates and Primary 1 Intake Rates, 1991 to 1998 (percent) Rates 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 __________________________________________________________________________________________ Gross Primary (1) 84.2 88.0 91.7 91.0 86.0 74.8 76.0 80.8 Gross Primary (2) n.a. 83.0 86.0 85.5 81.0 70.0 n.a. n.a. Net Primary 55.0 56.0 55.5 52.5 46.7 51.3 52.8 Gross Primary Intake 98.5 95.9 99.6 97.0 93.1 80.2 81.7 86.6 Net Primary Intake 49.1 47.8 49.8 48.4 45.9 40.1 43.6 47.7 Gross Junior Secondary 35.0 38.5 41.0 38.5 34.0 n.a. n.a. _________________________________________________________________________________________ n.a. = Not applicable. Source: See table 2.7 plus Federal Government of Nigeria 2001, for gross primary (2) and gross junior secondary schooling enrollment rates.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Boys Girls

Graph 2.1 Primary School Gross Enrollment Rate 2.20 The trend in the gross intake rate to primary 1 mirrors the fall in the overall primary rate. In 1991 it was estimated to be 98.5 percent and by 1998 had fallen to below 86 percent. The wide differences between the estimated gross and net enrollment rates reflect high levels of over-age enrollment caused by over-age intake and grade repetition discussed in more detail later. The overall situation is similar for the junior secondary grades, for which gross enrollment rates are provided by the Ministry for 1992 to 1996. Between these years the rate increased to a peak of 41 percent and fell back. 2.21 Turning from primary intake and cycle enrollment rates to the number of children who completed the cycle between 1991 and 1998, the overall picture is again disturbing. While the number increased significantly between 1991 and 1993, it then remained virtually constant at around 2.1 million to 1998. Around 60 percent of those completing were male. Primary school survival rates have been calculated by the Ministry as the proportion of children who enter class 6 five years after entering class 1. They do not cater for those children who may repeat at least one class or those who for any reason drop out and return.

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The rates, then, would be a minimum estimation of the true situation, providing the enrollment data were accurate. They are presented overall, and by gender, for 1991 to 1998 in table 2.9. _______________________________________________________________ Table 2.9. Primary School Survival Rates, 1991 to 1998, by Gender (percent) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 ____________________________________________________________________________ All 60 70 73 75 69 64 67 65 Males 61 71 72 77 69 63 68 68 Females 59 70 74 72 71 65 64 61 ___________________________________________________________________________ Source: See table 2.7. Overall, between two-thirds and three-quarters of those who enter primary schooling have been completing the cycle. Considering the way in which they are defined, these rates reached relatively high levels compared with many countries. Since 1994, however, they appear to have decreased, and particularly for girls. 2.22 Many of the children who move through the primary cycle do so on the expectation, or hope, that they will enter secondary school. A comparison of enrollments in primary class 6 in one year with those in junior secondary 1 in the following year provides a guide to the proportion who succeed. This is only a rough guide, however, since the true rate needs to relate nonrepeaters in each grade (see below). Table 2.10 presents the results from 1991 to 1998. The data imply that in the early part of the 1990s, there was a roughly equal chance that a primary 6 student would enter secondary school. After 1993, that chance decreased and was 38 percent in 1998. If correct, that is a very large reduction. Combining the primary cycle survival rates with those for transition to junior secondary provides us with a rough estimate of the chances of a primary school entrant eventually gaining a place in a secondary school. Between 1991 and 1998, the chances fell from 29 percent to 25 percent. ___________________________________________________________________________ Table 2.10. Transition Rate from Primary 6 to Junior Secondary School 1, 1991 to 1998, by Gender (percent) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 ________________________________________________________________________________________ All 48 52 50 48 42 40 40 38 Male 47 55 55 53 46 38 38 37 Female 48 53 53 50 44 42 41 39 _______________________________________________________________________________________ Source: See table 2.7. 2.23 The Ministry has calculated the junior secondary intake rate (JSS 1 enrollment divided by the total number of 12 year olds) for the period 1992 to 1996. The rate increased from 32 percent to a peak of 37 percent before falling back to 28 percent (Federal Government of Nigeria, 2001). Movement within the secondary stream appears to be smooth. Between 1993 and 1998, the average rate of progression through the junior-secondary cycle was 80 percent; the average transition rate to senior secondary was 87 percent and the progression rate through senior secondary averaged 88 percent. For 1998, the rates were 83 percent, 90 percent, and 98 percent respectively, implying at least a 73 percent chance of an entrant to JSS 1 completing the upper secondary cycle.

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School-based data 1999 to 2001.

Primary 2.24 The regular school censuses were not undertaken after 1998. In February 2002, the practice was revived and a census was held with two set of questionnaires, one for 2002 and the other for 1999–2001. A set of results was prepared but then withdrawn as it became apparent from the verification exercise and checks on the accuracy of data entry that it contained significant errors, mainly for primary enrollment. Authorized data are now being released. The aggregate totals for primary schooling are described in table 2.11 for 1999 to 2001, and also as earlier recorded for 1998 (see table 2.7). Enrollment appears to have grown significantly between 1999 and 2000 and then marginally over the following year. The safest position is to average over the three years, which produces a growth rate of 4 percent, with a slightly higher rate for males. In 2001 males were responsible for 56.4 percent of total primary enrollments, and females 43.6 percent. Compared with 1998 (the final year of the earlier series), enrollments the following year were reported to have been more than 11 percent higher. 2.25 The GERs corresponding to these enrollment estimates are dependent on school-age population estimates. As explained above, the most recent Population Census was for 1991, and the results, while officially accepted, were not regarded as very accurate. However, using two sets of projections, one by the National Population Commission and one by the World Bank/United Nations the GERs have been estimated for 2000 and 2001 and are presented in table 2.11. While the two estimates for 2000 vary by about 5 percentage points, the results for 2001 are quite similar. The overall primary enrollment ratio is roughly 90 percent––78 percent for females and 101 percent for males. The rate for 1998 (81 percent) presented earlier by the Ministry appears to have been a low estimate. _________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 2.11. Primary School Enrollments, 1998–2001, and Gross Enrollment Ratios 2000-01, Males and Females 1998 1999 2000 2001 _________________________________________________________________________________________ Enrollments Males 9,232 10,058 10,745 10,932 Females 6,812 7,848 8,413 8,452 Total 16,045 17,907 19,158 19,385 Gross Enrollment Ratio (1) Males 105.3 100.4 Females 85.2 82.6 Total 95.4 91.8 Gross Enrollment Ratio (2) Males 101.5 99.9 Females 79.8 77.3 Total 80.8 90.7 88.9 _________________________________________________________________________________________ Note: Gross enrollment ratio (1) based on government population estimates. Gross enrollment ratio (2) based on World Bank/UN population estimates. Sources: Ministry figures 1998, see tables 2.7 and 2.8; 1999–2001 enrollments “approved for use” Federal Ministry of Education; 2000–2001 population estimates from National Population Commission and World Bank estimates.

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2.26 Although the enrollments from the school census have been presented class wise, the large jump in recorded enrollments between 1999 and 2000 followed by virtually no change to 2001, suggests that the data are not sufficiently reliable for the construction of survival rates (and there are no data on repeaters). For the record, aggregating the survival rate for grade 1 children in 1999 to grade 3 in 2001, with that of the rate for grade 4 children to grade 6 over the same years implies an overall survival rate for the primary cycle of 73.2 percent. Differences between boys and girls appear to be minimal. As a crude indicator, in 2001 girls were 44 percent of total enrollments in both grades 1 and 6. Secondary 2.27 Enrollment data for junior and senior secondary schooling are available for 1999 to 2002 and are presented in table 2.12. Over this period, enrollments grew by almost 32 and 30 percent respectively, and at the same rates for males as for females. Overall, in 2002, female enrollment was 44 percent of the total in junior secondary and 45 percent in senior secondary. The gross enrolment rates are based on the estimated population of 12–14 year olds and 15–17 year olds, provided by the National Population Commission. Overall, in 2002, they averaged 30 percent for junior secondary and 27 percent for senior secondary, with the rates for females 6 and 4 percentage points below those for males respectively. Compared with a gross enrollment rate of 90 percent for primary schooling, coverage of secondary schooling appears to be very low, but there also appears to be little difference between the two tiers of secondary schooling. ______________________________________________________________________ Table 2.12. Secondary School Enrollments, 1999–2002 (‘000) and Gross Enrollment Ratios, 2000–02, Males and Females (percent) 1999 2000 2001 2002 __________________________________________________________________________________ JSS Enrollments Males 1,144 1,265 1,432 1,519 Females 916 1,012 1,148 1,193 Total 2,060 2,277 2,580 2,712 Gross Enrollment Ratio Males 30 33 33 Females 25 27 27 Total 27 30 30 SSS Enrollments Males 904 997 1,116 1,188 Females 756 829 905 965 Total 1,660 1,826 2,021 2,153 Gross Enrollment Ratio Males 26 29 29 Females 23 24 25 Total 25 26 27 _____________________________________________________________________ Source: School Census 2002, data sheets. Tertiary education 2.28 Enrollment estimates for tertiary education are the most reliable. A total of 526,780 students were enrolled in the universities in 2002 of whom around 394,000 were in the 34

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federal universities with most of the rest in the 10 state government institutions. More than 20,000 students are enrolled in each of 10 universities. The shares of males (61 percent) and females (39 percent) are wider than in the schools. Of the total enrollment, 61 percent are undergraduates and 19 percent post graduates, with the remaining 20 percent studying at sub-degree level (Okebukola 2002). A total of 151,578 students were enrolled in the 20 federal and 44 state and other teacher training colleges in 2001/02 (National Commission for Colleges of Education 2002). Caution over school-based data. 2.29 The data reported and analyzed above for the period from 1991 to 1998 are generally regarded as uncertain, particularly as they apply to primary enrollments. There are regular assertions that some states inflate these for political and resource mobilization reasons. Table 2.13 supports this through the presentation of gross enrollment and gross intake rates, which result from the enrollment figures for selected states. Gross enrollment rates of 150 and over, for several years, in states that are known to be educationally backward are difficult to accept as reliable. Rates such as these tend to lead to a disbelief in the accuracy of the overall education data. There is generally more faith in the enrollment data for secondary school enrollments and for the teacher numbers at both levels. ______________________________________________________________________ Table 2.13. Apparent Primary Gross Intake and Enrollment Rates 1992 to 1996, Selected States (percent) 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 _______________________________________________________________________________ Gross Enrollment Adamawa Males 146 158 183 229 233 Katsina Males 225 269 233 104 56 Katsina Females 99 120 105 51 27 Taraba Males 109 116 122 143 139 Yobe Males 89 95 181 178 165 Gross Intake Katsina Males 291 310 251 127 69 Taraba Males 176 147 155 190 185 Yobe Males 102 114 219 215 193 _______________________________________________________________________________ Source: Federal Government of Nigeria 2001, table 8. 2.30 The 2002 school census exercise was followed up through a 5 percent validation exercise, which demonstrated inaccuracies in primary enrollments in some states of up to 100 percent. Unfortunately, even after the revision of enrollment data following this exercise, very high implied GERs remain in some educationally backward states. Some of the data for secondary schooling are also problematic, although not to the same degree. In table 2.14 enrollments by grade are presented for 1999, 2000 and 2001. In addition, those for 1998 from the 1991 to 1998 series are also presented to check the consistency.

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___________________________________________________________________________________ Table 2.14. Secondary School Enrollments by Grade, 1998 to 2001 1998 1999 2000 2001 ___________________________________________________________________________________ JSS 1 769 709 804 939 JSS 2 753 703 765 871 JSS 3 703 647 705 770 JSS Total 2,261 2,059 2,274 2,580 SSS 1 626 595 655 732 SSS 2 601 553 600 667 SSS 3 548 512 571 622 SSS Total 1,800 1,660 1,826 2,021 _____________________________________________________________________ JSS = Junior secondary schooling. SSS = Senior secondary schooling. Source: School Census 2002, data sheets. 2.31 The data for the first of the four years (1999) are in all cases lower than those for 1998, implying some inflation in the earlier series. More interesting, however, is that in several cases enrollments in both junior and secondary schooling increase from one grade to the next. For example, enrollments in grade 3 of junior secondary in 2001 were almost 10 percent higher than those in grade 1 in 1999. Without information separating new entrants from repeaters it is not possible to determine whether or not the enrollments are inflated. 2.32 Overall, there is general skepticism over the quality of aggregated enrollment data for the period 1991 to 1998, owing to gross inflation in some states. This probably affects primary schooling more than secondary. The data collected in early 2002 for four years is generally regarded as superior, but some problems remain. As a result, recourse has also been made to the results of three sets of household surveys, which have been conducted over the past four years––the NDHS 1999 (sponsored by USAID) and the MICS 1999 (sponsored by UNICEF), and a set of CWIQs in eight states 2001/02 (sponsored by DFID, the European Union the World Bank).

Enrollments, Rates, and Student Flows––Household Data

Age-specific and gross enrollment rates.

NDHS 1999 2.33 The NDHS for 1999 reports that 56.7 percent of all 6–10 year olds, 67.1 percent of 11–15 year olds and 60.9 percent of all 6–15 year olds were enrolled in school (table 2.15). The urban and rural rates for the 6–15 years age group were around 73 and 56 percent respectively. These location differences are far greater than the 4 percentage point differential between males and females. Beyond the 11–15 year age group there is a significant reduction in the overall participation level. For all 16–20 year olds the rate declines to 41.5 percent and for 21–24 year olds, to 21.4 percent. In both cases, the gender differential is much larger. These data are age-specific enrollment rates, rather than being rates for particular levels of schooling. For instance, while most of the 11–15 year olds in school ‘should’ be enrolled at

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the secondary level, from other sources of data it is known that many are still in primary schools. Similarly, it should not be assumed that most of the 21–24 year olds enrolled are in tertiary institutions. Net and gross enrollment rates by educational level are discussed later in the report. _____________________________________________________________________________ Table 2.15. Percent of Specific Age Groups Currently Enrolled in School by Sex and Residence, 1999 Age Group Male Female Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total ____________________________________________________________________________________ 6–10 72.6 53.4 58.5 68.8 49.5 54.9 11–15 77.2 65.2 68.8 75.5 60.1 64.9 6–15 74.8 58.4 63.0 71.5 53.3 58.6 16–20 58.3 44.7 49.1 41.1 30.9 33.9 21–24 30.8 24.0 26.4 21.3 15.1 17.4 ___________________________________________________________________________________ Source: National Population Commission 2000. 2.34 The regional variations in educational coverage in Nigeria are so large that for many purposes the average national figures have little meaning. Table 2.16 presents the percentages of 6, 11, and 14 year olds who were enrolled in school in 1999 across the five regions that the DHS uses in the presentation of the data. These ages are, in principle, the ages for entry to grade 1, the final year of primary schooling, and the final year of junior secondary schooling respectively. While the participation rates are very different across the regions, in each, the percentages of children in school by age increase gradually and peak at 11 years. In 1999, almost all 11 year olds in the South East and South West were in school, as were more than four out of every five children in the Central region. By 14 years, the participation rate had declined to around 85 percent in the south and to 71 percent in the Central region. In both of the northern regions, roughly 40 percent of both 11 and 14 year olds were in school. In addition to lower rates of participation, entry into school appears to be at a later age in the north. The corollary of these participation rates represent children not in school. The characteristics of these children vary across the regions, as described below.

___________________________________________________________________________ Table 2.16. Percent of 6, 11, and 14 Year Olds Enrolled, By Region Age North West North East Central South East South West Nigeria __________________________________________________________________________________________ 6 years 15 17 50 67 68 46 11 years 42 36 83 97 94 77 14 years 39 38 71 88 84 71 __________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Derived from National Population Commission 2000.

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South West. With an average rate of participation for 11 year olds of 94 percent, not many children have never been enrolled in school. There is virtually no difference between males and females, or between rural and urban children. The main determinant of who is and who is not in school is household income (assets). Participation of the children from the poorest (20 percent) of households is 87 percent. For 14 year olds, the lower overall participation rate of 84 percent reflects some greater differentiation. While there is still little difference between urban and rural children, the female rate is 87 percent and the male, 82 percent. Across households, the rates vary between 89 percent for the wealthiest to 77 percent for the poorest. South East. The average rate for 11 year olds is 97 percent. The rural rate is higher than the urban rate and the male rate is higher than the female rate. The lowest among these rates, however, is 93 percent. The poorest households have a participation rate of 87 percent. By age 14 years, the overall participation rate is 88 percent. While the female and male rates are almost the same, the rural rate (89 percent) is again higher than the urban rate (80 percent). There is also a widening of the rates by household income––95 percent for the highest income group to 79 percent for the lowest. Central. The average rate for 11 year olds is 83 percent and the female rate is higher than the male rate (for all other ages the reverse is the case). The urban rate is as high as for the two southern regions, but the rural rate (77 percent) is lower. Similarly, the rate for the highest quintile is 94 percent, but for the poorest quintile (68 percent) it is well below that in the southern regions. The reduction in the participation rate for 14 year olds is greater than in the southern regions and the overall rate (71 percent) is the same as the Nigeria average. The urban and rural rates are similar, but males have a 10 percentage point higher rate than females. Only just over half (54 percent) of the poorest income group participate at this age. North West. Whereas almost all 11 year olds are in school in the southern regions, in the North West only half of the boys and one-third of the girls are enrolled. Overall, 70 percent of all rural children are not in school. There are large differences by income group. Of the richest quintile, the rate is 86 percent compared with just 15 percent for the poorest quintile. By the age of 14 years, participation has reduced only slightly, from 42 to 39 percent. For boys there is no change in participation, but the rate for girls reduces from 33 percent to 28 percent. Rural participation also falls significantly. Only 11 percent of the poorest group of 14-year-old children are in school. North East. This region has slightly lower rates than those in the North West. Thirty six percent of 11 year olds are in school, including 39 percent of boys and 32 percent of girls. Only one-quarter of rural children are in school compared with more than one-half of all urban children. Participation rates by income quintiles are similar to those in the North West––83 and 16 percent for the wealthiest and poorest households respectively. The rates for 14 year olds are similar to those for 11 year olds for each category of children. MICS 1999 2.35 A second large survey that included information on school participation rates is the MICS. With a sample of almost 70,000 individuals, the survey results have a high level of significance for the six geo-political zones but less so for the 36 individual states. The data confirms the overall findings of the NDHS on levels of access to schooling. They have also been used to develop a simulation model to determine the probabilities of various groups of children ever attending school and also to add to the knowledge of cycle survival and

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completion rates. Initially, however, the data are used to construct gross and net enrollment ratios. 2.36 GERs and NERs, by gender, geo-political zone, rural-urban location, and household income/wealth quintile are presented in table 2.17. The denominator for the ratios is not based on the school-age population estimates projected from the 1991 Population Census but on the survey data itself. Features of the results include (figures are rounded) the following: • With a primary school GER of 87 percent and a NER of 59 percent there is obviously

a very high level of over- and/or underage enrollment implying that children begin school late and high levels of repetition. Less than three in five 6–11 year olds are in school, although more will eventually enroll. In the rest of this description of the results, only the GERs are considered.

• The GER for boys is 90 percent and 84 percent for girls. Across 34 reporting Sub-

Saharan African countries for 1999/2000, the averages were 86 and 76 percent respectively (UNESCO 2002). Overall, for Nigeria the ratios are slightly above average and the discrepancy between boys and girls is below average.

• The difference in GERs between children in urban (109 percent) and rural (79 percent) areas is much larger than it is between boys and girls. Differences in participation between boys and girls are slightly higher in rural than in urban areas (7 and 5 percentage points respectively).

• There are wide differences between the GERs in the North West and North East zones, and those in the other four zones. In the North West the ratio is 42 percent; in the North East, 69 percent compared with a range of 117 to 129 across the other four zones. If the results for Kwara are removed from the North East grouping, the average would fall to 52 percent. Out of the 30 states that existed at the time of the MICS survey, 8 states had a GER of below 40 percent and 18 a GER above 100 percent, with just 4 states between 41 and 100 percent. There is a strongly dichotomous situation.

• In two of the six zones there is virtually no difference in the GERs for boys and girls (South West and South South). In the North West the gap is 11 percentage points, and in the other three it is between 5 and 7 percentage points.

• GERs are strongly linked to household income and assets. Across the whole country, children in the lowest quintile have a ratio of 51 percent and those in the highest, 121 percent. The largest gap is between those in the second and third quintiles. For children in the second quintile, the ratio is 66 percent rising to 93 percent for the third quintile.

2.37 The gross enrollment ratios roughly indicate the aggregate carrying capacity of the current system. In all, there are places for around 87 percent of all 6–12 year olds. However, these places are not distributed equally across urban and rural areas, or across regions. Although there may be overcrowding, the data suggest that there are more than enough places in urban centers (where the gross enrollment ratio is over 100 percent), but there are only enough places for 79 percent of the same age group in rural areas. The regional spread suggests that in the South West and South East there are more than sufficient places in school for those children from the 6- to 12-year-old age group. The situation in the North West and

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North East is very different. In these regions, the gross ratios of 42 percent and 69 percent imply that a large expansion of facilities would be required if universalization is to be achieved. The NER measures the number of 6–11 year olds in school as a percentage of all 6–11 year olds. Overall, the ratio is 57 percent and is below 85 percent even in the southern regions. Table 2.17. Primary GER and NER by Zone, Urban/Rural Location, Gender, Household Income and Sex (weighted) GER NER

Total 87.1 58.6

Geo-Political Zone North West 41.8 27.9 North Central 117.0 76.1 North East 68.7 46.0 South West 117.5 84.6 South South 118.2 77.5 South East 129.5 83.7 Location Urban 109.2 76.5 Rural 78.8 51.9 Gender Male 90.0 60.4 Female 84.1 56.7 Location and Gender Urban males 111.7 77.5 Urban females 107.1 76.0 Rural males 82.4 54.5 Rural females 75.4 49.4 Geo-Political Zone and Gender

North West Female 30.3 20.2 North West Male 41.8 27.9 North Central Female 110.6 72.7 North Central Male 117.0 76.1 North East Female 62.7 42.2 North East Male 68.7 46.0 South West Female 117.5 85.9 South West Male 117.5 84.6 South South Female 120.2 77.7 South South Male 118.2 77.5 South East Female 124.5 80.5 South East Male 129.4 83.7 Income Quintile 20% Poorest 50.5 33.1 Q2 65.5 42.6 Q3 93.4 63.0 Q4 112.8 76.0 20% Richest 121.1 84,0 Source: Derived from the 1999 MICS data (Federal Office of Statistics/UNICEF 1999).

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2.38 The zonal gross and net enrollment ratios, discussed above, can be supplemented by estimates for eight states generated from the CWIQs undertaken in 2001/02 (table 2.18). Again, it is apparent that the situation in the North West and North East is very different to that in the other zones. The GERs imply that in the north there is less than half the capacity required for universal primary education, while in the rest of the country, the necessary resources, in aggregate, appear to exist. Everywhere, however, the large differences between the GERs and NERs imply serious overage enrollment resulting from late entry and/or high repetition/dropout-dropin rates. While there is little evidence of gender inequalities in four zones, they are significant in the North East and North West. __________________________________________________________ Table 2.18. Gross and Net Primary Enrollment Ratios in Eight States, 2001/02 Zone/State GER NER Male Female Male Female ______________________________________________________________________ North West Jigawa 50 32 34 25 Kebbi 37 22 22 15 North East Yobe 51 32 31 26 North Central Kogi 127 125 79 83 South East Abia 122 113 88 87 Enugu 123 121 86 82 South South Cross Rivers 118 112 78 79 South West Ekiti 121 121 84 83 _____________________________________________________________ Source: Core Welfare Indicator Questionnaire data sheets 2001, 2002. 2.39 At this point, some cross-country comparison are useful. While the problems with enrollment data are particularly severe in Nigeria, they also exist in several other African countries and the results of the DHS and MICS household surveys have been used widely to assess the net attendance rate for primary education. Huebler and Loaiza (2002) assembled the information for 40 African countries, based on the MICS in 27 countries and the DHS in 13 countries. For Nigeria, the DHS data are used. For the 40 countries, the average net attendance ratio for 6–10 year olds is 61.7 percent, while for all Sub-Saharan African countries it is 56.9 percent. For Nigeria the ratio is 56.7 percent. Among the English speaking countries, only Sudan, Sierra Leone, and the Gambia have ratios below that for Nigeria. Across all Sub-Saharan African countries there is an average of 3 percentage points between male and female enrollment ratios. Nigeria is close to the average. The net attendance ratio for Nigeria is slightly below the average because that for the children in the poorest quintile of households is very low. For all other quintiles, the primary net attendance ratio is higher in Nigeria than the average for Sub-Saharan African as indicated below by percent:

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Poorest Second Middle Fourth Richest Nigeria 25.3 45.7 60.5 72.2 78.0 Sub-Saharan African 37.1 45.4 52.7 61.4 75.6 This striking result has serious implications for the development of Nigeria’s poverty reduction strategy. 2.40 As stated previously, however, statements about the average level of educational development in Nigeria are of limited relevance. The picture in the northern regions/zones is very different to that in the rest of the country. In the three southern zones and North Central, the net attendance ratio is more than 80 percent while in the other northern zones it is 25 and 53 percent. Only five other Sub-Saharan African countries have a ratio above 80 percent (Zimbabwe, Uganda, South Africa, Gabon, and Botswana). Ratios in the north are more comparable with those in surrounding countries (Niger 30.2, Chad 39.2, Burkina 27.4, and Benin 53.2). 2.41 Returning to the GERs and NERs in Nigeria, the large difference between these demonstrates a high level of overage enrollment across all categories. This can be further understood by examining the age distribution of pupils in classes 1 to 6 (table 2.19). In all cases, a minority of children (between 11 and 33 percent) are the correct age for each class. Most of the children in the ‘other age’ category are older children. Similarly, children of the same age are distributed across a large number of classes. For instance, 10 year olds are in classes 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 in significant numbers. An implication of this pattern of enrollments is that the net rates have little meaning in reflecting children’s participation in schools. ________________________________________________________________________________ Table 2.19. Percentage Distribution of Enrollment in Classes 1 to 6 by Age Age (years) Classes 1 2 3 4 5 6 _______________________________________________________________________________ 5 20 6 33 13 7 21 25 10 8 13 26 21 10 9 13 21 15 8 10 10 20 27 21 11 11 9 11 16 12 12 9 15 20 25 13 11 15 14 13 15 9 Other ages 13 13 10 22 24 15 _________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Derived from MICS 1999. 2.42 The extent to which it is possible to understand whether these wide distributions of age across grades result from overage enrollment in class 1, from repetition of classes, and/or from children dropping out of school and later re-entering is examined later. In the meantime, it is sufficient to stress that the situation causes significant problems for planning the future evolution of the system, and for teaching-learning activities in the classroom.

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2.43 According to the MICS data, the overage phenomena is even more pronounced in secondary schooling than at the primary level as shown in table 2.20. Across the sample, students in class 12 ranged from 14 to 25 years and only 36 percent had the anticipated age of 17 to 18 years. These wide ranges again make the common enrolment ratios less useful as indicators of the proportion of the age groups who eventually make their way through the secondary schooling cycle. ____________________________________________________________________________ Table 2.20. Percentage Distribution of Enrollment in Classes 7 to 12 by Age, 1999 Age (years) Classes 7 8 9 10 11 12 ____________________________________________________________________________ 11 9 12 20 12 13 17 14 7 14 16 20 14 9 15 15 19 23 17 12 16 8 11 15 17 15 7 17 7 11 16 19 12 18 7 11 16 21 24 19 9 13 20 10 18 Other ages 15 10 19 25 14 24 _________________________________________________________________ Source: Derived from MICS 1999. 2.44 An alternative indicator is the proportion of a recent appropriate cohort of people who did complete the cycle. The NDHS data allows this calculation to be made for 20–29 year olds, although only for junior-secondary schooling (table 2.21). The rates are presented across five regions differentiated by gender and rural-urban location, and are shown for the first and final grades. These results suggest that almost half of the appropriate age group is completing junior-secondary education (compared with the GER of 30 percent implied by relating the school census figures to the estimated number of 12–14 year olds). The differences among regions are again high (61 percent in the south and 22 percent in the north), and both the rural-urban and male-female differentials are wide in the northern regions. Both school-based data and the survey results indicate that survival rates in secondary schooling are quite high, both within cycles and between them.

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_______________________________________________________________________________ Table 2.21. Proportions of 20–29 Year Olds Who Entered and Completed Junior-Secondary Education, Various Characteristics, 1999 All Male Female Urban Rural __________________________________________________________________ Nigeria Grade 7 50 59 43 67 42 Grade 9 46 54 39 63 38 North East Grade 7 26 38 17 42 20 Grade 9 24 34 16 40 18 North West Grade 7 22 33 14 55 15 Grade 9 20 31 13 53 14 Central Grade 7 52 65 41 65 46 Grade 9 47 59 38 60 41 South East Grade 7 67 71 64 72 66 Grade 9 59 62 56 66 57 South West Grade 7 68 77 62 78 55 Grade 9 63 71 57 77 54 ________________________________________________________________ Source: Derived from National Population Commission 2000.

Grade 1 entry rates (children who ever attended school).

2.45 The gross enrollment ratios described above have several limitations. For instance, two countries with the same ratios could have different patterns of participation ratios across the separate grades. In one, there may be a high intake rate to grade 1 but high dropout rates, while, in another, the intake rate may be lower but dropout rates negligible. A similar GER then characterizes countries with very different problems. Another limitation is that the higher the rate of repetition, the higher the gross enrollment ratio. To take the level of understanding further, grade-specific enrollment rates are required. This subsection begins the analysis of this issue by considering the intake rates to grade 1. 2.46 The MICS survey provides information on the proportions of children (and young adults) who have ever enrolled in schooling. Disaggregating this data across gender, location, and income groups provides a comprehensive picture of school participation. The results are presented in table 2.22 and in graphic form. The first point of interest is that participation begins to peak at around 11 years of age. Up until this age, some children continue to enroll for the first time. Among all children and young adults aged between 11 and 18 years, around 78 to 80 percent had attended school at some point, implying that grade 1 entry has remained at this rate for several years. This is the average rate across the country. A related and, perhaps, surprising point is the relatively low overall participation rate (43 percent) for 6 year olds. Again, of course, the rates differ widely among the population groups as described below.

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Table 2.22. Proportion of Children Who Ever Had Access to Schooling by Age, Gender, Location and Income

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Number in Survey 2,520 2,575 2,495 2,547 1,825 2,745 1,314 2,317 1,624 1,632 2,211 1,309 1,448 1,919 948 2,290 601 Overall 22 42 54 63 69 67 79 75 78 80 73 82 77 78 80 63 85 Gender Males 22 43 55 66 72 70 82 77 80 81 75 82 81 82 91 77 94 Females 21 41 51 59 67 64 78 74 77 80 72 82 75 75 73 53 81 Zones North West 8 17 19 28 30 31 33 37 37 42 30 45 37 35 33 26 51 North Central 22 50 67 81 85 86 91 92 92 90 86 93 84 86 88 80 90 North East 18 28 46 48 54 55 56 65 59 63 64 65 64 65 68 52 64 South West 44 71 89 92 94 95 99 99 97 98 98 98 97 95 95 92 96 South South 32 60 73 84 87 88 95 92 94 95 93 92 91 94 94 87 94 South East 21 47 76 84 95 92 97 96 97 98 98 97 97 97 98 97 96 Geographic Location Urban 29 61 76 80 88 88 87 91 88 90 92 93 91 90 91 84 96 Rural 19 35 45 57 61 59 76 69 73 76 66 76 71 72 75 55 78 Income Quintile 20% poorest 8 22 24 39 44 42 46 50 50 53 40 57 49 51 44 37 64 Q2 19 28 38 47 48 50 67 60 62 64 56 67 59 60 64 48 66 Q3 20 44 57 68 72 72 82 78 82 84 82 85 82 81 83 65 85 Q4 22 40 51 58 66 64 76 75 74 77 73 78 78 74 81 65 85 20% richest 36 70 86 90 94 93 97 95 95 98 97 96 95 96 93 92 95

Source: Derived from MICS 1999. 2.47 Between age 11 and 16 years the ever enrolled rate for males and females differs consistently by around 4 percentage points. It appears to be a little wider at some of the younger and older ages. Overall, around 82 percent of boys and 78 percent of girls at some time in their childhood enroll in grade 1.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Male

Female

Graph 2.2. Ever Attended School by Gender and Age (weighted) 2.48 Differentiating between urban and rural children, the ever enrolled rates are around 90 percent for urban children and 74 percent for rural children. In addition, the urban children appear to enroll at earlier ages, peaking by age 9 years.

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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

URBAN

RURAL

Graph 2.3. Ever Attended School by Geographic Zone and Age (weighted) 2.49 Turning to the results across geo-political zones, the differences are very wide. By age 11 years, between 95 and 99 percent of children have at some point been enrolled in grade 1 in the three southern zones, and more than 90 percent of those in North Central. Essentially, there is almost universal grade 1 enrollment in these zones and, at least in the southern zones, this has been the case for at least the last decade. However, in the North East, the rate is much lower with around 65 percent of 11 year olds having ever enrolled. In the North West the rate is around 37 percent. There is some indication that in the North East the rate has been improving in recent years.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

North West

North East

North Central

South East

South West

South South

Graph 2.4. Ever Attended School by Zone and Age (weighted) 2.50 Turning to the household income and asset quintiles, virtually all children in the highest quintile and around 80 percent of those in the fourth quintile enter school. Conversely, only roughly two-thirds and one-half of those in the second lowest and lowest quintile have ever attended, respectively.

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Poorest

Quintile2

Quintile3

Quintile4

Richest

Graph 2.5. Ever Attended School by Income Quintile and Age (weighted)

Probability model of ever attending school

2.51 Enrollment in grade 1 has been shown to vary according to gender, rural-urban location, zone of residence, and income. From other evidence, it also varies in relation to the schooling level of the mother and the size of the family. The data behind table 2.22, plus those on mothers’ schooling and family size, can be used to construct a model that takes all of these factors into account simultaneously and gives a weight to their independent impact on enrollment. The results can then be used to measure the probability of, for example, a rural girl in the North Central zone who belongs to the poorest 20 percent of households ever enrolling in grade 1. From the calculations, each of the variables described above was found to be (statistically) highly significant and the overall relationship (Somer’D) very strong.5 The simulation results (probabilities) are presented in table 2.23.

5

All (10,385) Girls (5,482) Coefficient Significance Level Coefficient Significance Level Intercept 1.668 *** 1.873 *** Female Male 0.340 *** - - Rural Urban 0.494 *** 0.446 ***

20% poorest - 0.956 *** - 0.888 *** Q2 - 0.510 *** - 0.693 *** Q3 -0.257 *** - 0.274 **

20% richest

Q4 0.063 Ns - 0.042 Ns North West - 2.170 *** - 2.425 *** North East - 1.230 *** - 1.340 *** North Central 0.157 Ns 0.009 Ns South East 0.506 *** 0.567 ***

South South

South West 0.261 ** 0.405 ** Years of schooling of mother 0.128 *** 0.141 *** Children < 5 per adult - 0.205 *** - 0.287 *** Somer’D 0.704 0.734 Log Likelihood Ratio 3792 *** 3750 ***

Note: ** is 95 percent and *** is 99 percent level of significance Ns is not significant at these levels of significance

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Table 2.23. Simulation of Access to Schooling by Income, Gender, Zone, and Geographic Location

20% Poorest Q2 Q3 Q4 20% Richest

Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female

Urban 34.9 27.6 45.6 37.3 51.9 43.4 59.7 51.4 58.2 49.8 North West Rural 24.6 18.9 33.8 26.7 39.7 31.9 47.5 39.2 46.0 37.7

Urban 57.8 49.4 68.2 60.4 73.4 66.3 79.2 73.0 78.1 71.7 North East Rural 45.6 37.3 56.7 48.2 62.7 54.5 69.9 62.3 68.5 60.8

Urban 84.6 79.6 89.6 85.9 91.7 88.7 93.8 91.5 93.5 91.0 North Central Rural 77.0 70.5 84.0 78.8 87.1 82.7 90.3 86.9 89.7 86.1

Urban 88.6 84.7 92.4 89.6 94.0 91.8 95.6 93.9 95.3 93.5 South East Rural 82.6 77.2 88.1 84.1 90.5 87.2 92.9 90.4 92.5 89.8

Urban 85.9 81.3 90.5 87.1 92.5 89.7 94.4 92.3 94.1 91.9 South West Rural 78.8 72.6 85.3 80.5 88.2 84.2 91.1 88.0 90.6 87.3

Urban 82.4 77.0 88.0 83.9 90.4 87.0 92.9 90.2 92.4 89.7 South South Rural 74.1 67.1 81.7 76.1 85.2 80.4 88.8 85.0 88.2 84.1 Source: Derived from MICS 1999. 2.52 The simulations imply that in the three southern zones and North Central, more than 90 percent of all urban children (boys and girls), apart from those in the poorest 20 percent of households, will enter school. Around 85 percent of the poorest boys and 80 percent of the poorest girls can expect to enroll. For rural children, the probabilities are a little lower but tend to be well above 80 percent for both boys and girls in each income group except for the poorest. For this group average probabilities are a little below 80 percent. 2.53 Across the North East the probabilities are lower. For urban boys, they range from 58 to 78 percent across income groups, and for urban girls from 50 to 73 percent. The rates for rural children are around 10 percentage points lower in each category. These averages are boosted by much higher rates for Kwara State and will be much lower in some of the other states in this zone. The probability of ever enrolling in school is lowest on average in the states that comprise the North West zone. For urban boys, the range in this zone is between 35 and 60 percent and for urban girls between 28 and 52 percent. The lowest set of probabilities of all are for rural girls, which reaches a peak of just under 40 percent for the highest income group and a low point of just below 20 percent for the poorest. Some of the results are illustrated in graph 2.6. Across all gender and geographic groupings, there is a narrower differential for higher income households than for lower ones.

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0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5

Income Quintile

Acc

ess R

ate

(%) Urb Boys SW

Urb Boys NEUrb Boys NWRur Girls NERur Girls NW

Graph 2.6. Access Rate: Selected Characteristics Grade-specific enrollment ratios and cycle survival rates.

2.54 In the earlier discussion on GERs and NERs, it was argued that––for several reasons, and particularly in situations where children repeat grades and temporarily or permanently drop out of school––these ratios, which implicitly average the enrollment ratios across all grades, are inadequate measures for understanding the coverage and dynamics of the schooling cycle. What is required are separate enrollment ratios for each grade, and based on newly enrolled pupils. 2.55 The discussion so far has focused on the percentages and probabilities of children ever enrolling in school and on the grade 1 entry rate. However, not all those who enter this grade complete the primary cycle. Cycle survival rates can best be measured by following the experiences of all of the members of one cohort who initially enrolled in grade 1 in a particular year. Of those, some will complete a six-year primary cycle in six years; others will drop out and re-enter (or simply repeat a whole grade) but will eventually complete the cycle; and others will drop out and never complete the cycle. Detailed school-based data required to follow this procedure, however, are not available in Nigeria. A short-cut approach is to use the data for two years of the number of children in each grade who are not repeating that grade and to simply calculate the transition rates from grade 1 to 2, 2 to 3, 3 to 4, and so on, and to then assume that these cross-sectional rates for two years will approximate to the actual rates for a cohort. Again, this information is currently not available in Nigeria because enrolments are not disaggregated into repeaters and first-time pupils in each grade. Finally, an approximate approach would be to compare class 1 and 6 nonrepeater enrollments in one year accounting for cohort population growth over the six years. For the reasons given above, this approach also cannot be used in Nigeria. 2.56 In principle, the full set of information covered by the 1999 MICS could be used to make the short-cut calculations of the grade-specific enrollment ratios and, consequently, the survival rates because this survey covers two years of schooling experiences for each person and could identify those children who are repeating a grade. Unfortunately, only a partial set of data was available, covering just one year. In this overall context of severe data limitations, a rather less conventional approach has been adopted to construct grade-specific enrollment ratios, and from these, survival rates. From the intake rate (for grade 1) and the survival rate, it is then possible to compute the primary completion rate––that is, the percentage of all

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children who complete the primary cycle. To achieve universal primary education that rate needs to be 100 percent. 2.57 The starting point is the data described in table 2.19, showing the age ranges for each schooling grade. As a first approximation, total enrollment in each grade is simply compared with the total number of children at the appropriate age. For instance, all grade 3 pupils are compared with the total of all 8 year olds. The results are shown in column 2 in table 2.24. The results indicate that the age-specific grade enrollment rate for grade 1 is 75 percent, rising to 91 percent in grade 2, and then more or less falling gradually through the remaining grades. Because the rate is higher in grade 2 than in grade 1, this implies that there are many repeating students. To add greater realism, the age-specific grade enrollment rate should reflect that, in practice, the actual age range within grades is very wide. For instance, in grade 1, children are of many ages, mainly between 5 and 10 years. So, for each grade, the age distribution of the pupils is calculated and is then compared with the total number of children in the survey corresponding to that same distribution. For simplicity, assume an enrollment in grade 3 in which 20 percent are 8 year olds, 60 percent are 9 year olds, and 20 percent are 10 year olds. The age-specific enrollment rate in grade 3 is then the total enrollment in that grade divided by 20 percent of all 8 year olds, 60 percent of all 9 year olds, and 20 percent of all 10 year olds. The results of this exercise are presented in column 3. The rates are somewhat higher, but they show the same pattern as shown in earlier data. 2.58 One of the problems with the available data is that the number of repeaters is not known and therefore no short cut can be used to calculate the survival rate. However, from the information on the age distribution of pupils in each grade, it is simple to calculate the average age of pupils in each grade. This is shown in table 2.25. If there were no repetition (or drop out and re-entry), the average age of children would increase by exactly one year through each of the grades. The data in column 2 show this not to be the case. For instance, grade 3 pupils are on average 1.32 years older than the average grade 2 pupil, while grade 4 pupils are 1.17 years older than grade 3 pupils (see column 3). Thus, 32 percent of grade 3 pupils are repeating (or dropping back in) and 17 percent of grade 4 pupils are repeating (or dropping back in). In column 4, the percentages of repeaters and the repetition rates (repeaters and new entrants) are described. Table 2.24. Cross-Sectional Schooling Profile

New Entrants /Population of Same Age Structure (4) Grades

Students / Adjusted Single Age Population (2)

Students / Population of Same Age Distribution (3) Unadjusted Adjusted

Grade 1 0.75 0.80 0.80 0.78

Grade 2 0.91 0.96 0.72 0.72

Grade 3 0.84 0.89 0.60 0.62

Grade 4 0.76 0.79 0.66 0.68

Grade 5 0.67 0.70 0.65 0.69

Grade 6 0.76 0.79 0.64 0.70

Grade 7 0.62 0.64

Grade 8 0.68 0.67 Source: Derived from MICS 1999.

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Table 2.25. Average Age of Students in the Different Grades

Implicit (4) Grades Average Age (2) Age Difference

(3) Repeaters (%) Repetition Rate (%)

Grade 1 6.75 –– –– –– Grade 2 8.00 1.25 25 33 Grade 3 9.32 1.32 32 47 Grade 4 10.49 1.17 17 20 Grade 5 11.57 1.08 8 9 Grade 6 12.76 1.20 20 25

–– Not available. Source: Derived from MICS 1999. 2.59 Applying the percentages of repeaters (column 4) in table 2.25 to the age-specific grade enrollment ratios of column 3 in table 2.24, provides a set of completion rates (column 4 of table 2.24) and, by extension, an overall survival rate for those entering grade 1 who complete the primary cycle. Overall, with a grade 1 access rate of around 78 percent calculated through this method (and a result similar to that reached earlier through the discussion of ever enrolled), and a primary completion rate of around 67 percent, the cycle survival rate appears to be a high 85 percent. It would appear that while the repetition/drop-out-and-in rates are high the overall permanent dropout rate is relatively low. Summarizing, at present, around four out of five children enroll in grade 1. Of these, 85 percent reach the end of the primary cycle, which means that two-thirds of all children can expect to complete. Finally, these calculations appear to be consistent with the overall primary gross enrollment rate of 87.1 presented in table 1. A grade 1 intake rate of 78, plus a grade 6 intake rate of 67, and an average repetition rate of 20 percent implies a GER of 87.6.

Bringing together survival, completion, and transition rates

2.60 The school-based data implied survival and transition rates for 1998 of: Primary survival 65% Primary/junior-secondary transition 38% Junior-secondary survival 83% Junior-secondary/senior-secondary transition 90% Senior-secondary survival 98% From these data, an entrant into primary 1 has a 65 percent chance of completing the primary cycle, a 20 percent chance of completing junior secondary, and an 18 percent chance of completing a senior-secondary schooling. (These rates assume no repetition). Translating these into completion rates requires knowledge of the percentage of all those born in a particular year who, at whatever age, enter primary class 1. This knowledge is not available. What is known, however, is the proportion of each age that ever enrolled. As seen above from the MICS survey, the largest proportion is of 11 year olds and the rate is 79 percent. On the basis that 79 percent of a cohort enrolls in primary 1, there is a 51 percent chance of completing the primary cycle, a 16 percent chance of completing junior secondary, and a 14 percent chance of completing senior secondary.

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2.62 These rates are significantly lower than those calculated from the survey data. For instance, the primary survival rate of 65 percent compares to one of 85 percent from the MICS data and the primary completion rate of 51 percent compares to a rate of 67 percent. The NDHS survey data on actual levels of educational achievement also suggest the school data are underestimating the performance of the school system. From this, we know that of 15–19 year olds, 70 percent have completed at least the primary cycle and 46 percent of 20–24 year olds have completed junior-secondary schooling. Using the highest school-based rates for the 1990s, and retaining a 79 percent primary intake rate, the cycle completion rates would be only 58, 24, and 21 percent for primary, junior secondary, and senior secondary respectively. It is with the primary survival rate and the primary/junior-secondary transition rate where the problem appears to arise. For instance, both the NDHS and the MICS survey data imply that eventually roughly two-thirds of primary school graduates eventually complete junior secondary (around 70 percent of the cohort complete primary and 46 percent complete junior secondary). However, the transition rates calculated from primary 6 enrollment, in one year, and junior secondary 1 enrollment, in the following year, ranged from 48 in 1991 to 34 percent in 2001. The differences between the survey data, and the implications of the school-based enrollment data point to significant levels of repetition and/or dropping out and re-entering. Without an accurate understanding of the situation it will not be possible to usefully plan for the universalization of basic education.

Conclusions and some implications

2.63 The most important feature of educational attainment and current enrollment ratios in Nigeria is the wide diversity across geographic areas. In 1990, the country was divided into 30 states. In six of these, female literacy rates were around 86 percent and above while in another six they were between 23 and 35 percent. Large regional differences remain. By the end of the decade, 74 percent of all males and 62 percent of all females had ever attended school. In the south, the rates were 90 percent overall and 80 percent for females. In the north, they were 50 percent and 35 percent, respectively. Differences between male and female literacy and schooling rates decline as average rates increase. Schooling rates also differ between the rural and urban populations. Over the past 20 years, the proportions of the population who have completed primary and secondary schooling have been increasing, but with a declining trend. Rural rates have been, and continue to be, well below those for the urban population. 2.64 Both school-based enrollment data and household survey data have been used to assess current levels of school enrollment. School-based enrollment data indicate that during the 1990s, expansion occurred in both primary and secondary schooling up to 1994/95 and then declined such that GERs showed little overall increase over the remainder of the decade. For primary schooling, the rate was estimated to have been between 75 and 80 percent, and around 35 percent for the junior-secondary cycle. The estimated survival rate for the primary cycle and the transition rate to junior secondary followed a similar pattern – the survival rate rising to 75 percent in the mid-1990s and then falling to 65 percent and the transition rate rising to 50 percent and falling to 38 percent. Within the six-year secondary cycle, the data imply a high survival rate of 73 percent. 2.65 No data on the education system were collected and analyzed in 1999, 2000, and 2001. Data recently released from the 2002 school census, which also covered these earlier years, imply current gross enrollment rates for primary, junior and senior secondary

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schooling for all children of 91, 30, and 27 percent, respectively, and for females rates of around 80, 27, and 25 percent. 2.66 There are, however, significant problems with the school-based data, particularly with the earlier series. First, there is evidence of enrollment inflation in several states and year-by-year data are often inconsistent. Second, the available data on enrollment do not differentiate between new pupils and repeaters, which inflates enrollment ratios but underplays completion rates. In addition, the estimates of the school-age population that are integral to calculations of the enrollment ratios are based on the 1991 Census. For these reasons, therefore, the results of three sets of large household surveys have also been analyzed. These also allow for greater differentiation among population groups. The first data set from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey 1999 shows that 57 percent of all 6–10 year olds and 67 percent of all 11–15 year olds were in school. In both cases, male participation was higher by 4 percentage points. Of all 16–20 year olds, 42 percent were in school. An interesting point, corroborated in the other household surveys, is that school participation does not peak nationally until the age of 11 years at which time 77 percent of this age group are, or have been, in school. Across the five regions used in the survey, the rate at this age ranges between 36 percent in the North East and 97 percent in the South East. 2.67 The second household survey used is the MICS 1999. The results imply an overall primary GER of 87 percent, and 84 percent for females. There are substantial rural-urban differences, while the ratios across the six geo-political zones range from 42 percent in the North West to 130 percent in the South East. Almost as wide is the range between the 20 percent of households with the lowest income and the 20 percent with the highest––51 and 121 percent. Across states, enrollment rates in general are greater in higher income states. However, for any given level of state income there are significant variations in enrollment ratios, implying that other factors are also important. A regression model that examined the impact of gender, rural-urban location, household income, geo-political zone, mother’s education, and size of the family on school enrollment proved to have a high explanatory power. 2.68 For each schooling grade there is a very wide spread of age that makes the GERs and NERs less suitable than otherwise as measures of coverage. More useful are the intake, survival, and completion rates. As with the NDHS data, the proportion of children ever enrolled in primary grade 1 (the intake rate) is seen to increase to age 11 years at which age it is estimated at around 79 percent. Unfortunately, the lack of data on repetition (or re-entry) hinders calculation of the other grade-specific enrollment ratios, but it is estimated that the survival rate to the end of the primary cycle is around 85 percent. The entry and survival rates imply that 67 percent of all children complete this cycle. 2.70 The survey data suggest that 46 percent and 34 percent of children complete the junior- and senior-secondary cycles respectively. However, the school-based data imply lower levels of secondary completion with the transition rates to the first year of the secondary cycle estimated by the Ministry to be only around 40 percent over the past decade, and 34 percent currently. Part of the difference is because of the non-consideration of repetition and re-entry in these estimates, but it is clear that more work is required on estimations of grade-specific rates. In turn, this requires new, and better data. 2.71 The use of survey data allows for a deeper analysis of levels of access to schooling by different population groups than does the school-based enrollment data. The largest variations

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are associated with household income differences, which pose a direct challenge to poverty reduction strategies, and with regional differences. The latter indicates that in moving toward the government’s policy of Universal Basic Education, different parts of the country face different challenges. In some states, the challenge is still in access and retention in the primary cycle, while in others the need is for additional places in junior secondary education. In turn, as that level of schooling becomes part of basic schooling, the demand for senior secondary schooling will increase. Again, it will be imperative that a much better understanding is gained of the current coverage of secondary education, and of student flows from one grade to another over both the primary and secondary cycles.

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CHAPTER 3: FINANCING EDUCATION

3.1 In chapter 2, the diversity of educational coverage in Nigeria was emphasized. Within the country, there are several states where enrollment in grade 1 and completion rates for the primary cycle are virtually universal, except for children living in the poorest 20 percent of households. At the other extreme there are states where less than half of the children enroll in grade 1. The numbers of children completing the primary cycle then influence the demand for secondary and, ultimately, tertiary education. The result is that education systems across states vary in size considerably and so do the amounts of financial and other resources required for their functioning. On top of this base of diversity is a system that finances public education through three separate tiers of government each very dependent, although to a different degree, on a single source of revenue and on the way that it is distributed. This complex situation begs many questions of efficiency and equity. Unfortunately, the data base is once again limited, to the extent that not even an acceptable estimate of aggregate public expenditure on education exists. This chapter presents the results of an exercise undertaken to produce some partial estimates and to investigate some of the patterns of both resource availability and expenditure. It also begins a discussion on the implications for the education sector in general––and for programs to universalize primary and basic education in particular––of the ways in which federal revenues are allocated across tiers of government and between states.

Funding governments and financing education

3.2 Several of the issues in financing education in Nigeria are embedded in the virtually endemic problems of funding the separate levels of government in a federal political system: in particular, the so-called vertical and horizontal fiscal imbalances. The first of these is an imbalance between financial responsibilities and financial resources at each level of government: federal (or central), state, and local. The second concerns imbalances in equity across the subunits of each level of government, such as state or local governments. In Nigeria since independence, the search for appropriate mechanisms and formulae for minimizing imbalances has been particularly problematic. For instance, between 1960 and 1991, 16 changes were made to the Constitution in attempts to resolve these issues. Education figures centrally in these debates for several reasons. First, primary school enrollments are part of the allocation formula for distributing centrally collected revenues across states. Second, the education sector typically consumes a significant share of state and local government resources. And third, the financial responsibility for primary education across levels of government has never been fully resolved. Over the past 14 years in particular, the sources and modalities for funding this level of education have undergone significant changes.

3.3 Both imbalances are important for understanding the issues involved in funding education in Nigeria, but the vertical imbalance is the logical starting point since it concerns the issue of whether the revenue allocation arrangements are sufficient to allow each level of government to fulfill its responsibilities. In the education sector, where, notwithstanding some overlaps, the major financial responsibility for each separate level lies with a different tier of government, it is relevant to ask whether the vertical allocation criteria allow for

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balanced funding for the education system as a whole and for each level of the system. The current debate on this issue, such as it is, is based on very little information. There is, for instance, no credible estimate of the aggregate amount of public expenditure spent by the federal, state, and local governments on education and hence of the sources, levels, trends, and distributions across the various levels. 3.4 The lack of knowledge on educational expenditures in Nigeria is not a recent phenomenon. The last detailed and comprehensive effort to describe the situation was made in 1965, utilizing data up to 1962 (Callaway and Musone, 1965). Since then, very few, and only very partial, estimates have been made. 3.5 This lack of information on education expenditures has several other implications. For instance, there is little basis on which to assess issues such as the following:

(a) whether the financial effort in this sector has been increasing or decreasing in terms of

real expenditures or as a share of public expenditures or of national income;

(a) the distribution of expenditures across the various educational levels either nationwide or in individual states;

(c) the relative importance of each level of government in funding education; (d) the levels of efficiency and equity of public expenditures in the sector that would

provide a quantitative basis for arguments in favor of expanding, contracting, or reallocating them; and

(e) the future public expenditure requirements, nationally or by state, as the existing

enrollment pressures in the system evolve naturally or are encouraged.

Finally, it is not possible to compare the levels and patterns of education expenditures in Nigeria with those in other countries. In UNESCO and World Bank publications, for example, educational expenditure data for Nigeria are either totally omitted or are recorded for the federal government alone (UNESCO, 2002).

Sources of education funding and problems of aggregation

3.6 As described briefly in chapter 1, the largest source of funds that governments in Nigeria have is generated by federal taxes and duties. The proceeds are pulled together and placed in the Federation Account, from which they are divided among the three tiers of government. The size of the Federation Account depends, in turn, on oil production and world oil prices, and to some extent also on the government’s capacity to collect the taxes and duties. Over the past 30 years the international price of oil has fluctuated greatly and frequently. In the absence of any revenue stabilization mechanism, the funds in the Federation Account have likewise fluctuated. One US dollar change in the price of each barrel of oil in 2000 would have changed Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings by US$ 730 million and public revenues by US$ 300 million. In 2000, revenues from the Federation Account provided 90 percent of the federal government’s revenues and 80-85 percent of state and local governments’ revenues. A Revenue Mobilization and Fiscal Allocation Commission applies the formula through which funds in the Account are divided. How much

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the various levels of government can mobilize for the delivery of services depends almost entirely on the size of the Federation Account and the revenue sharing formulae. This is why the formulae are one of the most difficult and contentious issues in Nigerian politics. 3.7 Each of the three tiers of government provides funds for education, and the problems of estimation vary across these. The main focus of the federal government is on tertiary education, in particular on its 24 universities, 20 teacher training colleges, and 16 polytechnics. In addition, it continues to fund three boarding secondary schools in each state and has established new ones as the number of states has expanded. Finally, it has been providing some support for primary school learning materials and since 2000 budgetary provision has been made for new classrooms in each state. 3.8 Since 1991, Federation Account allocations to the local governments have been the main source of funding for primary education. For an individual local government, the allocation is based first on the overall (vertical) share for local governments (currently 20 percent) and then on the (horizontal) principles of allocation among local governments. For each local government, sufficient funds to pay all of the primary school teachers within their boundaries are first subtracted from their allocation before the remainder is distributed to them. These subtracted funds have then been placed with each State Primary Education Board (SPEB) through the Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC). Since a Supreme Court ruling in early 2002, funds have been bypassing UBEC. Very few local governments allocate additional recurrent funds to education, though some make capital expenditures. 3.9 State governments are involved in the funding of all three levels of education. For primary education, until recently, an amount equal to 10 percent of the primary teachers’ salary bill in the state has been deducted from the state governments’ Federation Account allocation and placed with the SPEBs. The state governments also fund all of secondary education apart from the 96 Federal Government Colleges. In tertiary education, the states share the management and financing. Most states have a teacher training college and a polytechnic or tertiary-level technical college. Sixteen states also run state universities. 3.10 Estimating federal and local governments’ educational expenditures is relatively straightforward. The federal government publishes its budgets, and information on the total primary teacher salary bill paid by the local governments is centralized. The major problems in collecting data occur at the state government level. There are six main obstacles.

• First, whereas there were three regional governments in 1962, there are now 36 states. This in itself would give rise to issues of consistency in reporting.

• Second, there is no constitutional requirement for states to report budgetary information including the composition of expenditures to the federal government, and consequently there is no such reporting. At the same time, the level of monitoring of state government expenditure has diminished, and there is no single location at which the necessary information (annual budget books or audits) is held, let alone collated and analyzed. The institution closest to undertaking these tasks is the Central Bank of Nigeria, whose staff visit states to collect aggregate budgetary data. However, while coverage of sectoral expenditures has improved recently, it is far from complete, and there are large inconsistencies between states.

• Third, within states, since departments of education do not control the budgets of tertiary-level institutions, any detailed information on expenditures (beyond a

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single budget line) by state governments on tertiary institutions require visits to each institution, further increasing the problems of data collection.

• Fourth, several education expenditures are not included in the budgets of education departments at all. For example, in some states the funding for scholarships can be found in the allocations to the governor’s office.

• Fifth, sources of public expenditure outside of departmental budgets exist. The most important is the Education Tax Fund.

• Finally, the overall quality of record-keeping and transparency of accounting practices was eroded in the final years of military rule, and a fear of releasing information to the public remains.

3.11 As described above, aggregate federal and local government expenditures on education are relatively simple to determine. State government expenditures are not. The limited Central Bank data on capital expenditures from 1996 and recurrent expenditures since 2000 are presented and discussed below. To begin to fill the information vacuum in this area, case studies of expenditures were undertaken in nine states between 2000 and 2002. These assessments covered all local, state, and federal government expenditures to provide a comprehensive picture of education finance in each state. The states chosen were Kano, Jigawa, Borno, Benue, Niger, Oyo, Ekiti, Enugu and Rivers. In addition, some data were collected for Bayelsa, Anambra, Lagos, and Plateau. State government expenditures were collected for 1995 to 1999, but the comprehensive picture of all sources and patterns of expenditures was compiled for 1998. This year was chosen for several reasons. First, it was the final year of military rule, and therefore the results set a base for future comparisons. Second, it was the most recent year for which actual expenditures were likely to be available when the studies were being conducted. Third, since 1998, several very large salary increases have been made, part of which had to be financed through ad hoc measures that may temporarily have distorted the patterns. In addition to the detailed estimates of expenditure patterns across education levels and by the various tiers of government, total education expenditures have also been estimated roughly for 2001.

Education expenditures by source

Federal Government

3.12 Federal government expenditures on education have been below 10 percent of its overall expenditures since 1997. Table 3.1 presents these shares, and separately for recurrent and capital expenditures, based on actual expenditures between 1997 and 2000 and on estimates for 2001 and 2002. Overall, the shares have varied between 9.9 and 7.6 percent and the trend has been largely downward. Typically, between 70 and 80 percent of expenditures are for recurrent activities. However, in 2000, the capital allocation increased to 45 percent of the total, in line with the overall large increase in capital expenditure in the Federal Government’s budget.

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_________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 3.1. Federal Government Expenditures on Education as Share of Total Federal Expenditure. 1997 to 2001 (percent)

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

________________________________________________________________________________________ Recurrent 12.3 12.0 11.7 9.4 9.5 9.1 Capital 6.1 7.5 5.0 8.5 6.0 6.0 Total 9.9 9.6 9.0 9.0 7.6 8.0 _________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Federal Government of Nigeria, Annual Budget (various years). Note: 2001 and 2002 are estimates 3.13 While each tier of education is the joint responsibility of both federal and state governments, the former has historically been much more involved at the postsecondary level. Table 3.2 presents the shares of federal government recurrent and capital expenditures by level of education between 1996 and 2002. Over that period, the share for the 24 federal universities ranged from roughly 40 to 50 percent of total federal expenditures, while those for the 16 polytechnics and 20 colleges of education remained fairly constant (apart from one year) at around 17 percent and 11 percent, respectively. Overall, during the whole period, the tertiary education subsector received between 68 percent and 80 percent of the total federal expenditures for education. In five out of the seven years, the allocation to secondary education was above that for primary. The average shares were 14.5 percent for secondary schooling and 11.5 percent for primary schooling. Federal government expenditures on secondary schooling are basically for the federal government colleges (unity schools) and the 16 federal secondary technical colleges. Allocations for primary schooling have been more ad hoc, resulting from specific initiatives. Since 2000, most have been for the construction of three classroom blocks and classroom renovation in each local government authority. _____________________________________________________________________ Table 3.2. Federal Government Expenditure Shares by Level of Education 1996–2000 (percent)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

___________________________________________________________________________________ Tertiary 79.9 78.9 68.4 69.0 75.8 68.1 76.9 Universities 52.5 44.6 39.4 39.9 49.2 39.6 51.2 Polytechnics 16.2 23.2 17.0 18.5 17.0 16.6 16.0 Colleges of Education 11.2 11.1 12.0 10.6 9.6 11.9 9.7 Secondary 10.4 11.3 14.6 18.7 15.3 15.5 15.6 Primary 9.7 9.8 16.9 12.2 8.9 16.4 7.5 ___________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Federal Government of Nigeria, Annual Budget (various years). State government 3.14 This section presents more details than the sections on the federal and local governments because the information comes from more sources and the situation is the most complex and variable. The discussion is in two parts: the first using Central Bank data and the second, data generated in the case studies.

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3.15 In 1998, the combined total recurrent and capital development expenditures of all state governments totaled around 30 percent of those made by the federal government, and by 2001 the share had increased to almost 60 percent (Central Bank of Nigeria, 2002). The revenues of state governments are dominated by the allocations from the Federation Account plus, more recently, receipts from the centrally collected value added tax. Internally generated revenues averaged just 10.3 percent of total revenues in 2001. States with the highest shares were Lagos (42 percent), Enugu (19 percent), and Kano (17 percent). State governments are involved in the funding of each level of education, although to different degrees. They provide the vast majority of funds for secondary schooling and often a significant part of those for postsecondary education, in addition to relatively small amounts (meant to be equivalent to 10 percent of the teacher salary bill) for primary schooling. 3.16 The Central Bank of Nigeria has collected some details of state government capital and recurrent expenditures by sector. For capital expenditure, the series has been made available for the period 1996 to 2002. Information on recurrent sectoral expenditures began to be collected in 2000. Collection is done through officers traveling to the states and attempting to fill out pro forma. While the results remain very partial both in terms of the number of states where information was made available and the categories of expenditures used, and some of the data appear to be questionable, this is the only existing source, and its coverage has increased each year. An attempt is made below to use these data to provide some “feel” for the situation. Capital expenditures 3.17 More information is available at the sectoral level on the capital expenditures of state governments than on the recurrent ones. From the Central Bank base data, the shares for education have been computed for each of the years from 1996 to 2002. The results are presented in table 3.3. States have been allocated across the six geopolitical zones. Observations are for between 18 and 32 states, depending on the year. Averages by state have been calculated (for 27 states) on the basis of a minimum of four years of data. Overall, aggregating all education expenditures and all capital expenditures, the share increased from 7.3 percent in 1996 to 9.0 percent in 2002. The average share of the individual states increased gradually from 10.4 percent to 11.2 percent in 2002. In a few states the share appears to be very high and the overall median has actually fallen over the period from 8.8 percent to 7.7 percent. Overall, the picture is mixed, but there is no evidence that across the country as a whole, education has received increased priority in efforts to increase developmental infrastructure.

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______________________________________________________________________________ Table 3.3 Nigeria: State Government Education Capital Expenditures 1996–2002 (as percentage of total capital expenditures)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Average __________________________________________________________________ North West Sokoto 13.0 23.9 16.4 15.1 1.3 20.5 13.8 14.9 Kaduna 2.1 5.8 7.1 3.6 9.9 11.0 12.1 7.4 Kano 1.9 7.4 8.5 6.9 16.8 13.6 8.9 9.1 Katsina 13.4 19.2 12.8 11.2 9.0 11.4 12.8 Kebbi 3.0 5.5 6.6 43.3 13.9 13.0 14.4 14.2 Zamfara 6.6 3.5 8.7 7.9 7.6 6.9 Bauchi 10.4 16.0 17.8 6.5 9.3 8.9 5.7 10.7 Jigawa 1.2 3.3 7.9 2.4 2.4 3.5 7.8 4.1 Average 10.0 North East Borno 7.2 16.4 36.1 5.8 16.4 Taraba 16.7 8.8 9.8 13.3 0.3 12.4 5.7 9.6 Yobe 15.7 15.2 16.0 10.8 7.2 18.5 13.9 Adamawa Kwara 17.1 7.9 7.0 Borno 7.2 16.4 36.1 5.8 16.4 Average 14.1 North Central Benue 34.7 17.9 11.4 24.8 22.4 22.2 Gombe 0.8 5.9 4.2 6.7 4.4 Níger 3.5 9.4 13.0 26.7 10.4 12.7 Nassararwa 2.4 28.9 33.8 Kogí 17.3 1.5 5.3 15.0 15.0 28.7 13.8 Plateau 0.9 7.5 2.5 Average 13.3 South East Abia 17.1 16.3 7.5 3.1 2.8 9.4 Anambra 6.6 6.5 5.9 Ebonyi 0.0 1.5 Enugu 5.0 9.0 6.4 Imo 4.2 6.0 2.7 2.7 3.9 Average 6.7 South South Akwa Ibom 16.2 22.5 7.5 6.8 13.3 Bayelsa 3.4 11.8 3.2 9.1 10.2 6.1 7.3 Cross Rivers 2.5 7.4 6.8 Delta 4.5 0.1 1.5 3.4 8.1 5.6 3.9 Edo 21.6 22.7 23.5 Rivers 9.6 6.5 6.2 Average 8.2 South West Ekiti 5.6 5.3 7.6 4.9 5.9 Lagos 2.8 2.4 13.7 18.9 9.5 Ogun 16.8 5.9 4.7 7.4 8.7 Ondo 32.9 19.9 22.6 1.5 19.2 Osun 14.7 6.8 13.6 4.8 10.0 Oyo 4.9 7.1 7.0 6.0 3.1 17.0 7.5 Average 10.1

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Average 7.3 7.2 9.4 9.7 9.1 9.9 9.0 (total exps. across all states) Average state share 10.4 9.7 10.9 10.7 8.1 10.6 11.2 Median share 8.8 7.4 8.5 6.8 6.0 9.6 7.7 ______________________________________________________________________ Source: Central Bank of Nigeria data sheets Notes: 1. Averages and medians are only for those states responding. 2. Average by state column requires a minimum of four years of data (27 states). . 3.18 Turning to shares of capital expenditure for education across the zones, it might be anticipated that those states that are least educationally developed would be increasing their infrastructure more rapidly than other states. This is the case to a small extent. Averaging the state averages in the North West and North East zones across the whole period gives a figure of 11.8 percent, compared to 9.5 percent for all states in the other zones. Taking the information only for 2001, the averages are 12.9 and 7.6 percent, respectively, implying that there has been a recent increase in the priority given to education in the most underdeveloped states. In the rest of the country, the share has fallen. Recurrent expenditures 3.19 Fewer data are available on recurrent expenditures on education. They cover fewer years and fewer states, and the composition of categories is not as useful as it could be for our purposes. In assessing the importance of recurrent educational expenditures, it is important to define the totals against which they are compared. In Nigeria, the recurrent budget is divided between personnel costs and overheads for each department; parastatals and higher institutions (P&HE); and several transfer items such as to the consolidated fund, the stabilization fund, the local government councils, and so on. In the following discussion, the focus is on the personnel and overhead costs, and on the grants to P&HE. Many components of the latter, though not all, are tertiary-level educational institutions such as teacher training colleges and state universities, and the allocation to this item may be seen as the maximum allocation to this level of education. It will in all cases be an inflated estimate, but the extent of the inflation is not known. The data are presented in table 3.4. The ratios used are personnel expenditures on education as a share of all personnel expenditures; personnel and overhead expenditures on education as a share of all personnel and overhead expenditures; the same plus the allocations to parastatals and higher institutions to both the numerator and denominator; and the education personnel and overheads plus the parastatals and higher institutions allocations as a share of total expenditures. 3.20 Across the states, the data in column 1 should be the most consistent and most comparable. This column covers personnel costs in every activity that is not a parastatal or autonomous institution. In most states, for education, this column would generally cover secondary education plus whatever responsibilities the state government has for managing primary education. Data are available for four states in 2000, six states in 2001, and twelve states in 2002. For 2001 and 2002, the average across states is around 42 percent, with the median a little higher. The states have been divided into three groups--the North West and North East zones, the North Central zone, and the three southern zones. There are significant differences between the first group and the other two. On average, education’s share of total

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personnel costs is around 30 percent in the states in the two far north zones, compared with around 50 percent in the rest of the country. Column 2 aggregates all education and total personnel and overhead departmental expenditures. The combination produces a lower share for education overall, but the geographical pattern is similar (averages of 27 percent in the far north and 38 percent elsewhere). 3.21 Where the data are available (just eight states), expenditures on parastatals and higher institutions are added to those of the education departments and shown in column 3 as a share of all ministerial and parastatal expenditures. The numerator may be regarded as an upper limit on educational expenditures in the state as a share of all expenditures apart from financial transfers. On average, the share is around 55 percent, and in this case, the variations across groups of states are smaller (between 51 and 59 percent), perhaps implying that variations across the country in allocations for tertiary coverage are much smaller. In column 4, education departmental expenditures plus the allocation for parastatals and higher institutions are compared to total state government expenditure, including all forms of financial transfers (consolidated fund charges, transfers to the stabilization fund, transfers to local government authorities, debt charges, and pensions). This information is available for only five states. 3.22 Undoubtedly, the picture of recurrent educational expenditures by the states that can be gleaned from the information gathered by the Central Bank remains partial, and in several cases, unclear. From what is available, it appears that:

(a) Around 30 percent of total personnel expenditures in states in the two far northern

zones and 50 percent in other states are for the education department. These expenditures largely cover secondary education.

(b) Of total departmental expenditures (personnel and overheads), education receives just

over a quarter in the far northern states and just below 40 percent in other states.

(c) The expenditure in the category “parastatals and higher institutions” is not disaggregated but much of it is probably for tertiary education. If this is the case, and for the small number of states for which data are available, education receives just over half of all state government expenditures, excluding financial transfers, and the regional variation is less pronounced, perhaps implying relatively large expenditures on tertiary institutions by the educationally underdeveloped states.

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____________________________________________________________________ Table 3.4. Estimated State Recurrent Expenditures on Education, Selected States and Years (percent)

Education P Education P&O Education P&O+PHS Education P&O+PH /Total P /Total P&O / Total P&O+PHS / Total Expenditure

(1) (2) (3) (4) ____________________________________________________________________________________ 2000 Bauchi 24.6 25.8 (25.8) (13.0) Benue 47.6 40.0 (40.0) (21.8) Imo 51.7 30.7 54.7 48.7 Kano 25.5 17.3 39.1 23.3 Average 37.3 28.4 40.0 26.7 2001 Bauchi 28.5 19.0 (19.0) Benue 50.7 43.0 (43.0) Imo 52.8 38.5 58.6 52.0 Kano 28.1 21.6 41.7 Kogi 49.7 43.8 65.9 50.3 Katsina 47.6 49.6 64.5 41.4 Average 42.9 35.9 57.7 47.9 2002 Bauchi 29.2 21.9 (21.9) Kano 25.9 19.6 39.9 Katsina 31.9 33.1 47.8 48.2 Yobe 32.9 30.0 (30.0) Zamfara 28.7 28.7 65.5 Average 29.7 26.7 51.1 Benue 49.2 44.2 (44.2) (37.4) Kogí 51.2 44.0 65.9 45.4 Plateau 56.6 27.1 45.1 35.0 Average 52.3 38.4 55.5 Ogun 52.8 43.2 55.6 53.7 Rivers 43.6 41.9 (41.9) Ebonyi 45.8 25.3 (29.6) (14.6) Imo 54.9 42.4 62.5 51.9 Average 49.3 38.2 59.1 2002 average 41.9 33.5 54.6 46.8 median 44.7 31.5 55.6 48.2 __________________________________________________________________ Source: Central Bank of Nigeria data sheets. Notes: 1. Data for Kano are confusing since in each year there are two very different estimates for total expenditures on personnel. The shares in the table assume the larger of the estimates. However, if the smaller is used, education personnel costs as a share of total personnel costs would increase from 25.5, 28.1, and 25.8 percent for 2000, 2001, and 2002 respectively to 57.7, 60.2, and 59.3 percent. The other shares for Kano would similarly increase. 2. Figures in parenthesis in column 3 denote that there are no allocations for parastatals and higher institutions in these states in these years. In these cases, the shares are the same as in column 2. It is not clear under which heading funding for the tertiary institutions have been made. The situation is similar for column 4. 3. The averages do not include the observations in parenthesis.

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Recurrent and capital expenditures 3.23 Although not all states are covered and in those that are, the data are incomplete, a very rough approximation can be made of the “average” share of total government expenditure on education. Across 18 states for which data are available on capital expenditures, the average capital share for education was 11.2 percent. Across 12 states for which data are available (however approximate) on recurrent expenditures, the share for departmental education expenditures and allocations to P&HE averaged 33.4 percent. Overall, these shares imply that a maximum of roughly 23 percent of total state government expenditure is for education. 3.24 As described above, in 2001 and 2002 case studies of combined federal, state, and local government education expenditures were conducted in several states. The results that relate to state governments are described below. Education expenditure as a share of total state government expenditure, and its distribution across levels of education, are presented in tables 3.5 and 3.6, based on the studies of nine states plus additional data for a further three. Wherever possible, the data cover 1995 to 1999. Though varying considerably, the shares devoted to education display two important features. First, the median share in 1999 was only 18.0 percent, which appears to be low for this level of government. Second, in every state for which there are time series data for more two years, the share for education fell, apart from Niger, where the shares appear to have been very erratic. ________________________________________________________________ Table 3.5. Education Expenditure as a Share of Total Expenditure, Selected State Governments, 1995–1999 (percent)

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 ________________________________________________________________ Enugu 20.1 15.6 20.2 14.8 17.0 Rivers 25.0 18.4 16.0 19.2 9.2 Borno 13.3 16.6 9.9 21.2 12.6 Oyo 14.6 12.6 13.0 11.4 11.6 Benue 34.6 28.1 24.4 21.5 29.9 Anambra 28.0 28.9 33.5 16.0 27.4 Níger 15.3 17.3 32.4 16.4 27.5 Ekiti 35.6 22.9 27.1 Jigawa 23.0 21.0 16.8 Kano 11.0 13.8 Plateau 21.7 19.0 Lagos 24.8 Median 20.1 17.3 23.0 19.2 18.0 _________________________________________________________________ Source: For Enugu, Rivers, Borno, Oyo, Benue, Niger, Ekiti, Jigawa, and Kano, from the case studies. For Anambra, Plateau, and Lagos, from state budgets. 3.25 An indication of the pattern of state government funding across levels of education is provided in table 3.6 for nine states. These summary data are for 1998. In the table, postsecondary education is divided between universities on the one hand and polytechnics, colleges of education, and state technical colleges (labeled tertiary) on the other. On average, around two-thirds of all state government expenditures on education are for secondary schooling, and the average for primary schooling is around 11 percent (though the range appears to be very wide). The shares for tertiary and university education combined vary substantially with a range between 13 percent and 40 percent, partly depending on whether

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there is a state university. On average, states spend around 19 percent of their total educational expenditures on tertiary education; those that also have a state university spend on average an additional 15 percent. _________________________________________________________________________ Table 3.6. Shares of State Government Education Expenditure by Educational Level, Selected States, 1998

Primary Secondary Tertiary University ______________________________________________________________________________________

Enugu 17.0 52.7 30.3 0.0 Rivers 9.7 50.6 21.4 18.3 Borno 5.0 69.1 25.8 0.0 Kano 9.2 66.3 24.5 0.0 Plateau 3.3 83.9 12.8 0.0 Benue 11.9 50.2 15.3 22.2 Ekiti 10.4 66.2 13.0 10.4 Niger 13.8 65.8 16.6 3.8 Oyo 23.1 37.6 27.5 11.8 Average 11.4 60.3 20.8 7.4

______________________________________________________________________________________ Source: For Enugu, Rivers, Borno, Oyo, Benue, Niger, Ekiti, Jigawa, and Kano, from the case studies. For Anambra, Plateau, and Lagos, from state budgets. Note: The low share for secondary education in Oyo is difficult to understand, but has been verified by the consultant.

Local governments 3.26 The revenues of local governments come from three sources--statutory allocations from the Federation Account, proceeds of the centrally collected value added tax, and internally generated revenues. According to the revised estimates for 2001, across all local governments only 5.9 percent of revenues were generated internally, while 11.6 percent came from the value added tax and 78.3 percent from statutory allocations (Central Bank of Nigeria, 2002). For all local governments combined, the total allocation from the Federation Account to which they were entitled and the cost of primary teachers’ salaries, which were deducted as a first charge on their allocation between 1998 and 2001, are described in table 3.7. Over these years, the councils’ funding for primary education averaged between a third and a half of their total allocation from the Federation Account.

___________________________________________________________________________________ Table 3.7. Total Federation Account Allocation to Local Governments and Total Cost of Primary Teacher Salaries (Naira ‘000 million). 1998 1999 2000 2001 ___________________________________________________________________________________ Total allocation 48 90 207 245 Teacher salaries 15 47 64 126 Percent 31 52 31 51 _________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Allocation from Central Bank of Nigeria (2002), Table 5.1. Teacher salaries from Universal Basic Education Commission worksheets. 3.27 The local governments, however, do not all face a similar situation, since primary education is more widespread in some than in others, with a consequent difference in the share of allocations devoted to teacher salaries. The Central Bank collected information for 2001 on the total expenditures of councils. Aggregating these councils within the 36 states,

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the distribution of the percentage of their overall Federation Account allocation used for teacher’ salaries is shown in table 3.8. Table 3.8. Percentage of Federation Account Allocation Used for Teachers’ Salaries 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 _________________________________________________________________________ 1 9 8 4 9 4 _________________________________________________________________________ Zamfara Adamawa Akwa Ibon Anambra Abia Rivers Bauchi Benue Kwari Plateau Bayelsa Gombe Borno Imo Delta Enugu Jigawa Cross river Kogi Ebonyi Osun Kebi Kaduna Edo Kano Niger Ekiti Katsina Nasarawa Ogun Sokoto Lagos Taraba Ondo Yobe Oyo ____________________________________________________________________ Source: Central Bank of Nigeria, 2002, table 5.8 for the nonteacher salaries allocations; and table 3.5 above for deductions at source for teacher salaries. While on average, 51 percent of the total allocation to the councils was deducted at source for teachers salaries, the range across states was from 25 percent in Zamfara to 80 percent in Osun. In all, the local governments of 13 states had over 60 percent of their allocations deducted for teacher salaries, while in 10 states the deduction was 40 percent or below. 3.28 The stress on local governments caused by the requirement that they fund all primary teacher salaries varies not only by state, but also across local governments within a state. For example, in Ekiti between 1998 and 2000, between 44 percent and 53 percent of the 16 local governments’ combined statutory allocations were deducted at source for teacher salaries. However, across the local governments, the share ranged from 14 to 73 percent in 1998, 19 to 83 percent in 1999, and 17 to 75 percent in 2000. Taking 1999 as an example, in ten local governments the deductions were between 35 and 50 percent, in two the share was above 50 percent, and in four it was below 35 percent. Some local governments in several states were receiving “zero” allocations (for example, seven in Oyo and five in Imo). 3.29 In addition to the funding of primary teachers’ salaries, some local governments have been funding capital expenditures. Table 3.9 describes these expenditures as shares of their total capital expenditures, their total expenditures on education, and their total overall expenditure between 1995 and 1999. As a share of overall capital expenditure, they ranged from 5.2 percent to 7.7 percent; as a share of all local government expenditure, the range was from 1.7 percent to 2.7 percent. Finally, as a share of total local government spending on education, capital expenditures were just 4.5 percent in 1999.

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_____________________________________________________________________________ Table 3.9. Measures of Local Governments’ Capital Expenditure on Education, 1995–1999 (percent) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 _____________________________________________________________________________ CEE as percent TCE 7.5 7.8 6.1 5.2 7.7 CEE as percent TE 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.8 2.7 CEE as percent of TEE 4.5 Actual capital expenditure on education N million 479 474 514 1207 1215 _____________________________________________________________________________ Source: Central Bank of Nigeria (various years). Notes: CEE is capital expenditure on education; TCE is total capital expenditure; TE is total recurrent and capital expenditure; TEE is total education expenditure (recurrent plus capital).

Expenditures by level of education

3.30 The data and discussion in the previous subsection indicate the level of priority the federal and state governments give to education. Among the three tiers of government, the local governments have been contributing the highest share of their revenues. However, since they have no say in determining the amount of the deductions from their allocations from the Federation Account, it is difficult to equate this to a high priority. The data also indicate the distribution of education expenditures across the different levels of education by each tier of government. In this section, a different set of information is provided that describes the sources of funding for each subsector in a set of states. Each of the three subsectors is financed by at least two levels of government.

Primary

3.31 Constitutionally, the states and their local governments are responsible for primary education. In recent years it has been the most straightforward level of education in terms of source and level of funding. Primary schooling is managed through the State Primary Education Boards (SPEB), which receive funds mainly from the local governments (indirectly through deducting teacher salaries from their entitlement from the Federation Account) and from the state governments (again until recently from “deductions at source”). The state governments’ deduction is meant to be equal to 15 percent of the local governments’ contribution for salaries and is intended to cover nonsalary items. Since the large salary increases in 1998/99, the share has been reduced to 10 percent. While there is no requirement for federal funding, during the 1990s there was an understanding that a per pupil grant of N50 would be allocated for educational materials. These grants were made irregularly, but more recently the federal government has made funds available for both furniture and school buildings. According to the case studies, funds for primary schooling were provided by each tier of government in 1999, as described by the shares in table 3.11.

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________________________________________________________________________________ Table 3.11. Sources of Funding for Primary Education in 10 States, 1999 (percent) Kano Borno Oyo Rivers Enugu Benue Ekiti Niger Jigawa Lagos __________________________________________________________________________________ Local 84.8 84.1 78.5 84.6 84.8 95.6 85.4 85.0 87.9 87.9 State 9.4 11.5 19.4 12.6 12.4 4.4 11.7 14.8 12.1 12.1 Federal 5.8 5.5 2.1 2.8 2.8 0.0 2.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 ___________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Case studies; and State Primary Education Board data sheets for Lagos. 3.32 Overall, around 86 percent of the funds for primary education were derived from the local governments’ allocation from the Federation Account. Most of this amount was for teacher salaries. The federal government provided only very small amounts, while the state government contributions appear to have been around 10 to 12 percent. While there are issues such as differences in required “effort” across local governments, limited levels of local accountability and high management costs, and of course the recent decision by the Supreme Court that the system of handling the deductions through the federal government agency UBEC was unconstitutional, the system by which the funds from the three tiers of government have been distributed to the SPEBs appears to have been largely successful and the earlier experiences of unpaid teachers has not been repeated.

Secondary

3.33 In none of the sampled states do the local governments contribute financially to secondary education (table 3.12). However, the shares of the federal government described in the case studies are surprisingly high, averaging around 25 percent. Even though the federal government colleges are high-cost boarding institutions, there are usually only three in each state, plus a total of 16 federal secondary technical colleges. ____________________________________________________________________________________ Table 3.12. Sources of Funding Secondary Education in Eight States, 1999 (percent)

Borno Rivers Enugu Benue Ekiti Níger Jigawa Oyo _____________________________________________________________________________________

Local 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 State 67.9 73.0 85.4 75.9 100.0 70.8 100.0 81.8 Federal 32.1 27.0 14.6 24.2 0.0 29.2 0.0 18.2

_____________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Case studies. Note: Federal government colleges (secondary schools) were still being established in Ekiti in 1999, and there were none in Jigawa.

Tertiary

3.34 Both the state and federal governments are major funders of postsecondary education. Both tiers manage and finance colleges of education, technical colleges/polytechnics, and universities, though not every state has the same set of institutions. For example, only 16 of the 36 states have their own state university. The actual distribution of funding for tertiary institutions in a state between the federal and the state government depends on the range of federal institutions and their type, as the examples in table 3.13 demonstrate. For instance, no federal institutions have yet been established in Jigawa, so this subsector is fully funded by the state government. On the other hand, where there is a federal college of education and a

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polytechnic, and where the federal university is one of the first set to have been established and has high enrollments (Ibadan, Nsukka, Ahmadu Bello, Ife, and Lagos), the federal government’s share tends to be particularly high. On the whole, from the sample of states, the federal government share is greater than that of the state governments. ___________________________________________________________________________ Table 3.13. Sources of Funding Tertiary Education in Nine States, 1999 (percent)

Borno Oyo Rivers Enugu Benue Ekiti Jigawa Niger

____________________________________________________________________________________

Local 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 State 46.7 40.8 47.0 6.4 34.8 38.8 100.0 31.2 Federal 53.3 59.2 53.0 93.6 65.2 61.2 0.0 68.8

____________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Case studies. 3.35 A characteristic of tertiary-level funding (and also of secondary) in Nigeria is that both federal and state governments fund only their own institutions. In some other federal countries, such as India, the spread of federal institutions is not so great, but state institutions have access to some federal funds.

The whole picture of education finance within states

3.36 The two subsections above describe the levels and distributions of educational expenditure by each tier of government and the sources of financing for each level of education. For each state, these two sets of information can be combined to provide a comprehensive picture of the sources of funding for education and of its distributions. Public educational systems are funded by the federal, state and local governments, and the relative contributions in each of seven of the sampled states are described in table 3.14. Across these states, there is no single pattern. Variations largely reflect the differences in educational development among states and the relative presence of the federal government in the tertiary sector. ______________________________________________________________________ Table 3.14. Sources of Funding for Education, Selected States, 1998 (percent)

Borno Rivers Enugu Benue Ekiti Niger Oyo ______________________________________________________________________

Local 19.0 29.0 29.6 58.2 33.3 30.8 34.9 State 54.0 46.0 25.6 22.3 47.9 41.8 37.2 Federal 27.0 25.0 44.8 19.5 18.8 27.4 27.9

_______________________________________________________________________ Source: Case studies. 3.37 Previous tables described the allocations across educational levels according to each source of funding. Table 3.15 presents the overall distribution of allocations across educational levels. Again there are variations across sampled states, but some patterns are evident. In all cases but one, primary schooling receives the largest share of expenditures,

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averaging 40 percent. The overall average for secondary schooling is 28 percent, but this share appears to be pushed upward by the two northern states. This could reflect high boarding costs, though for Jigawa there are also some problems of classification. The average share for postsecondary education is 32 percent, and in five of the eight states it is above the share for secondary education. In Ekiti and Jigawa, there is no federal university. While the data reflect only a sample of states, the average shares of 40, 28, and 32 percent for primary, secondary, and postsecondary education, respectively, are much closer together than is usually the case, and the share for postsecondary education appears to be very high. _______________________________________________________________________________ Table 3.15. Distribution of Total Educational Funding by Educational Level, 1998 (percent)

Borno Oyo Rivers Enugu Benue Ekiti Niger Jigawa _______________________________________________________________________________ Primary 23.4 43.1 30.4 33.8 60.9 41.0 37.2 48.4 Secondary 47.1 15.8 28.4 16.2 14.8 31.4 36.7 45.4 Tertiary 13.8 16.0 16.3 8.7 5.0 23.6 14.0 6.2 University 15.7 25.1 24.9 41.3 19.3 4.9 12.0 0.0 _______________________________________________________________________________ Source: Case studies. Note: For Jigawa the costs of the state polytechnic are included the total for secondary expenditure.

Some aggregate estimates, comparisons and recent developments

Aggregate estimates

3.38 As stated above, the most recent comprehensive assessment of the levels, patterns, and trends of education finance in Nigeria was made in 1965, for 1962. The very limited knowledge of state government expenditures remains a problem, and the estimations of national aggregates made in this section need to be regarded with caution. The initial basic set of calculations has been made for 1998. The advantages of selecting this year have been described above--briefly, it was the final year of military rule and therefore provides a useful base, it was the most recent year for which actual expenditures could be collected for most of the sampled states, and both 1999 and 2000 were years of substantial midyear increases in teachers’ salaries. The impact of the salary increases is returned to later.

3.39 Federal government expenditure on education in 1998 was N 23,668 million. The local governments, through the deductions at source from their share of the Federation Account, contributed N 15,420 million for teachers’ salaries plus N 1,207 million for capital expenditures. For the state governments, data are available for thirteen states (the nine case studies plus additional information for Anambra, Bayelsa, Lagos. and Plateau). The aggregate expenditure in 1998 was N 9,964 million. In the same year, these states combined are reported to have enrolled 42.3 percent of all primary pupils. Assuming that this percentage also reflects their share of overall education expenditures across all 36 states, then total education expenditures by all state governments would have been approximately N 23,555 million. Aggregating the expenditures of the three tiers of government gives a total of N 63,870 million. This is equivalent to 2.3 percent of the level of GDP in 1998. 3.40 Another measure of expenditure effort is the share the education sector received out of total public expenditure across all tiers of government. In 1998, the federal government’s education expenditure was 9.6 percent of its total recurrent and capital expenditure. The aggregate level of state expenditure on education, estimated in the paragraph above, was

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equivalent to 17.0 percent of total state government expenditure. And for local governments, the share was 31.0 percent (table 3.7). Combining all these sets of expenditures, education expenditure as a share of total government expenditure (federal, state, and local) in Nigeria in 1998 was approximately 14.2 percent. Of overall education expenditures, the federal government contributed 37 percent, state governments 37 percent, and local governments 26 percent. 3.41 The same sets of data can be used to calculate the relative shares of each tier of government in funding each level of education. For primary schooling, local governments funded around 73 percent of all expenditures, with the rest split between the federal and state governments. For secondary education, the state governments funded 82 percent, with the federal government contributing the rest (to the more expensive federal schools). For nonuniversity tertiary education, the federal government appears to fund roughly 65 percent and for the universities, 77 percent. For tertiary education as a whole, the federal government funded around 70 percent and the state governments, 30 percent. These estimates for primary and secondary education are close to the averages across the sampled states in tables 3.6 and 3.7. However, for tertiary education, the estimate for the federal government is higher than that obtained from the sampled states. As previously pointed out, while the shares for primary and secondary are likely to be fairly constant across states, those for tertiary education will differ more significantly depending on the location of the federal universities, and among these, particularly the oldest, largest, and most expensive group (Ibadan, Ife, Lagos, Nigeria/Nsukka, Ahmadu Bello), and with the location of the 16 state universities. Comparisons--among countries and over time 3.42 The estimates of government education expenditure in Nigeria as a share of GDP and of total government expenditure can be compared to the situation in other sub-Saharan African countries. UNESCO’s World Education Report 2000 presents 1996 data for 19 such countries. The average share of GDP was 4.7 percent and of government expenditure, 19.6 percent. In both cases, the measures of educational expenditures for Nigeria (2.3 percent and 14.3 percent, respectively) are relatively low. 3.43 Again, from the sample of state government education expenditures plus the federal and local government expenditures, it is possible to provide an approximate set of shares of expenditure across levels of education for 1998 for the country as a whole: 36 percent primary, 29 percent secondary, and 35 percent for all tertiary institutions, including 19 percent for universities. These shares can be compared with those in other countries. Across 18 sub-Saharan African countries in 1996, the shares were 48 percent primary, 31 percent secondary, and 21 percent tertiary (UNESCO, 2000). The allocations to primary schooling were significantly lower in Nigeria and those to tertiary education significantly higher. Recent developments 3.44 Since 1998, there have been very significant increases in salaries across the whole education sector (and public service). “In addition to raising the minimum wage to N3,000 and then to N5500 representing increases of 140 percent and 83 percent, general average increases of 150 percent and 200 percent respectively were effected in federal civil servants wages in 1998 and 2000” (World Bank, 2002c). The progression of monthly salaries for three grades of teachers from 1998 to 2000 in Enugu is described in table 3.16 as an example. Overall, there appears to have been a five-fold increase. The impact on education expenditure

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was, naturally, very great. In spite of the very large increases in the funds distributed to the state and local governments from the Federation Account in 1999 and 2000 thanks to high oil prices, and the ability of the states to counter revenue stabilization measures, the federal government had to directly supplement the resources for primary teachers’ salaries in 1999. In 1998 the local governments were “paying” a teacher salary bill of N 16 billion. These payments increased to N 46 billion in 1999, to N 64 billion in 2000 and to N 126 billion in 2001. The salary increases also affected education expenditures of the state governments, which are responsible for secondary and some tertiary education. The case studies suggest that expenditures in the 13 states analyzed increased by 60 percent between 1998 and 1999. The apparently smaller percentage increase than for the local governments possibly reflects some lags in the data and the fact that more of the expenditures were for capital items whose cost did not rise so steeply, as well as the freeze on teacher salaries in several states during that year (with consequent widespread teacher strikes). For 2000, data for four states (Borno, Ekiti, Adamawa, and Lagos) indicate that state government educational expenditures were 3.4 times higher than in 1998. Federal government expenditures (recurrent plus capital) increased from N 27 billion in 1998 to N 41 billion in 2000. _______________________________________________________ Table 3.16. Monthly Teacher Salaries by Grade 1997–2000, Enugu State (N) Teacher Grade 1998 1999 2000 _____________________________________________________ TC II 1326 3558 7374 NCE 2027 5424 11186 B. Ed 2742 6907 14839 _____________________________________________________ Source: Enugu Department of Education. 3.45 The very large salary increases implemented mainly in 1999 and 2000 obviously raised the share of public education expenditure in GDP (to roughly 3.6 percent) and in total government expenditure, though to a lesser extent since the salary increases were made across the whole public sector and over a period when there were very large increases in the Federation Account. Between 1998 and 2000, the share of total federal government expenditures that education received actually fell (from 9.6 to 9.0 percent). Overall, however, the share of educational expenditures in total government expenditures increased slightly. Regarding the shares of expenditure across levels of education, the high proportion of salaries in the total cost of primary schooling compared to the proportions in secondary and higher increased the share for primary education to around 42 percent. 3.46 A more detailed estimate has been made for 2001, following the second round of large salary increases. Federal and local educational expenditures are available for 2001. The salary bill for local governments doubled over the previous year. While federal expenditures on education increased by around 12 percent, they fell as a share of its total expenditure. For the education expenditures of state governments, some additional heroic assumption have had to be made. According to the estimates made for 1998, 70 percent of state expenditures were for school education and 30 percent for tertiary education. These expenditures are assumed to have increased at the same rate as for primary teacher salaries and federal government expenditures, respectively.

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3.47 The teachers’ salary increases for since 1998 have led to significant changes in the share of total government expenditure allocated to education, the distribution across levels, and the relative contributions from the three tiers of government. The estimates for 2001 are described in table 3.17. Government expenditures have increased at a much faster rate than has GDP over the past few years. It is estimated that between 1998 and 2001 educational expenditure as a share of total government expenditure increased from 14.2 to 17.5 percent, as a share of GDP it increased from 2.3 to 6.2 percent The salary increases have also led to local governments bearing more of the overall share of educational expenditure. Local government is now the main financier. Finally, the share for primary education appears to have increased to around 44 percent (up from 36 percent in 1998). More accurate estimations must await the federal government’s introduction of systematic procedures for recording state government expenditures. _____________________________________________________________________ Table 3.17 Estimated Public Expenditures on Education by Level of Government, 2001 (N ‘000 million) Level of Government Educ Exp. Total Exp. Percent Source (%) _____________________________________________________________________________ Federal 60 794 7.6 20.3 State 109 597 18.3 37.0 Local 126 292 43.1 42.7 Total 295 1683 17.5 100.0 _____________________________________________________________________________

Unit public cost by level of education

3.48 The data collected in the case studies also allow the public cost per student year (unit recurrent cost) to be estimated for each level of education across the sampled states. The results, again for 1998, are described in table 3.18. To provide greater detail, the unit costs of different types of tertiary institutions have been disaggregated. 3.49 Owing to some state governments’ tendency to inflate primary school enrollments, the (consequently depressed) expenditures per student at this level should be viewed with particular caution. Omitting Jigawa and Borno for this reason, the average unit cost at this level was N 1,600. The much higher rate recorded for Enugu may reflect falling enrollments in recent years. For secondary schooling, there appear to be problems with the data for Jigawa and also for Oyo, where the costs appear to be unreasonably low. For the other states, the average unit cost was N 3,080, or almost twice the level for primary school.

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3.50 Unit costs in postsecondary institutions are more diverse. Across all 24 federal universities, the average for 1998 was N 23,414 (Hartnett, 2000), which is similar to the average for the federal universities; apart from Benue in the sampled states, whose cost may reflect generally higher costs of agricultural universities. The public costs of the state universities appear to be a little lower, and in the case of Enugu much lower due to very high rates of cost recovery. Unit costs of the teacher training institutions and polytechnics seem to vary considerably across states. In Kano, both are very high (due to low enrollments), while in Enugu and Ekiti they are low, again probably due to high levels of cost recovery. Tentatively, in states that do not charge high fees, the public unit costs of nonuniversity tertiary education lay between N 15,000 and N 25,000 in 1998. From the sample of states and institutions described in table 3.14, the ratios of public unit cost for primary, secondary, tertiary, and university education are roughly 1:2:13:15. __________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 3.18 Unit Public Cost by Level of Education and Type of Institution by State, 1998 Primary State Secondary Tertiary Teacher Training Polytechnic State University Fed University ____________________________________________________________________________________________________ Jigawa 677 12,101 20,117 Kano 1,747 3,633 27,952 41,595 25,471 Oyo 1,336 1,333 4,116

(24,325) Borno 397 3,809 16,957 16,957 Rivers 1,310 3,655 22,929 21,892 14,935 21,588 20,000 Enugu 2,102 1,881 2,811 5,472 28,259 (23,960) (29,763) Benue 1,886 2,523 15,125 131,252 201.965 Ekiti 1,220 2,987 6,702 4,384 17,659 ______________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Case studies. Notes: The official primary enrollments for Jigawa and Borno are seriously overestimated (e.g., Borno 288,000 in 1995 and 750,000 in 1998). The relatively high cost for primary schooling in Enugu partly reflects the fall in enrollments in government schools over recent years (e.g., from 418,000 in 1995 to 264,000 in 1999). Figures in parenthesis for Enugu and Oyo indicate total unit cost including fees, and other expenses.

The unit public costs for the federal universities in 1998 in Kano, Oyo, Borno, Rivers, and Enugu according to the study by Hartnett (2000), were N 18,755, N 25,709, N 17,978, N 19,597, and N25,085, respectively. The average across all federal universities was N 23,414. 3.51 The immediate reaction to this set of ratios is that, compared to primary schooling, the costs of secondary schooling are being held down, but postsecondary education continues to be relatively expensive. However, the unit costs are all very low compared with those in most other low-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. And the relative cost of tertiary institutions is much below the average for sub-Saharan Africa where the average multiple over primary schooling is around 50.6 Since 1998, teacher salaries, and hence unit costs, have increased substantially. For instance, assuming that half of the primary teachers in a state are G II level and the other half are NCE, that the average grade is the midpoint in each range, and that the teacher:pupil ratio is 45:1, the teacher cost per pupil year in primary schooling in 2001 would have been N 3,900 and the overall unit cost around N 4,300. This

6 In Zambia in 2000, the ratio of unit costs was 1:3:12:70 for primary, secondary, teacher training, and university education.

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translates to just US$ 33. Since salaries have risen for teachers and lecturers at all levels of the education system, the pattern of unit costs will not have changed greatly from those described above for 1998.

Private education and household expenditure

Private education

3.52 The private sector for primary and secondary schooling appears to be growing. The data, however, remain sketchy. Though enrollment data were collected in the 2002 school census from private schools for the first time, the response rate was very low. Drawing on the state case studies, more data are available on the number of private and government schools than on enrollments. An exception is Rivers State, whose primary and secondary school enrollments in 1995 and 1999 are shown in table 3.19. _________________________________________________________________________ Table 3.19. Primary and Secondary School Enrollments in Rivers State (in thousands) 1995 1999 Government Private Government Private __________________________________________________________________________ Primary 413 17 641 34 Secondary 215 15 177 59 __________________________________________________________________________ In 1995, private enrollments in primary schooling were 4 percent of the total and in 1999, 5 percent. In secondary schooling, however, private enrollments increased from 7 percent to 25 percent of the total and enrollments in government schools actually fell. If accurate, the figures appear to demonstrate a significant decrease in the public’s perception of the quality of government secondary schooling. Private schooling is also significant in other states. The current share of private primary and secondary schools are described for six states in table 3.20. Each of these states has a significant private sector, especially in secondary schooling, where the average share of schools is 18 percent. In both Ekiti and Enugu, the share of private primary schools is higher than for secondary. _________________________________________________________ Table 3.20. Private Schools as a Share of All Schools, Selected States, 2000 (percent)

Primary Secondary _________________________________________________________

Ekiti 22.5 13.8 Borno 5.1 18.2 Enugu 15.8 13.5 Oyo n.a. 14.9 Benue 7.3 20.7 Kano 16.9 27.0 ____________________________________________________________________ Source: Case studies.

Household expenditures

3.53 Most of this chapter focuses on government expenditures in education. However, education is rarely a (financially) costless activity to the student or household, even when the student attends a government school that charge no tuition fees. The consultants collected

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information on household costs of attendance at both government and private schools. There was significant variation in the quality and coverage of these efforts. The data on household expenditures generally covered educational materials, clothing, meals, and transportation, as well as fees and other charges. However, while the estimated costs of the nonfee/charge items formed a large share of household expenditures in schooling, the estimates were particularly subjective. The descriptions below are limited to the annual costs of fees/levies and then to educational materials. Tables 3.21 and 3.22 describe fees/charges in government and private schools, respectively, in five states. ________________________________________________________________________ Table 3.21. Annual Fees and Charges in Government Educational Institutions, Selected States, 2000 (N)

Ekiti Enugu Borno Rivers Benue ____________________________________________________________________________________ Primary 500 455 120 625 115 Secondary 2,150 1,660 175 1,430 290 College of education 12,750 3,900 Institute of management 8,750 State polytechnic 2,020 6,350 Federal polytechnic 8,850 Tertiary 7,500 State university 14,900 14,300 12,000 1,640 Federal university 1,405 550 ____________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Case studies. 3.54 Charges in government primary schools are low (N 115–N 625) but, at least in the southern states, they begin to rise significantly in secondary school to at least N 1,500. In most cases, the direct costs of enrolling in government non-university tertiary institutions are between N 4,000 and N 9,000, while the state universities appear to charge around N 12,000 to N 15,000. Those who attend federal universities face lower charges. These household costs can be compared to the public unit costs, estimated above, of N 1,600 primary, N 3,100 secondary, and N 20,000 tertiary. From secondary schooling onward, household expenditures are a significant share of total costs. The fees and charges in private schools are, of course, much higher (table 3.22). The ranges suggested by the case studies are wide, but it appears that parents face direct payments of at least N 20,000 a year for secondary education, and they can be much more. ______________________________________________________________ Table 3.22. Estimated Annual Fees and Charges in Private Schools, Selected States, 2000 (N)

Ekiti Enugu Borno Rivers Oyo __________________________________________________________________________ Primary 14,600 3,735 4,500 12,000 9,060 Secondary 26,600 22,500 18,300 39,750 n.a. __________________________________________________________________________ Source: Case studies. 3.55 Table 3.23 estimates the household costs of educational materials in government schools. Again, these figures were often rather arbitrarily derived, but they do indicate that attendance at government educational institutions requires significant household expenditures.

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________________________________________________________________________________ Table 3.23. Estimated Annual Cost of Educational Materials in Government Institutions, Selected States, 2000 (N) Ekiti Enugu Borno Rivers Benue Oyo __________________________________________________________________________________ Primary 500 2,870 720 1,750 540 490 Secondary 2,125 6,600 850 3,750 5,300 2,075 College of Education 7,000 6,100 State polytechnic 11,850 7,580 6,500 10,000 2,555 Federal polytechnic 7,000 State university 8,600 12,250 8,500 13,500 Federal university 10,220 18,500 __________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Case studies.

Conclusions and some implications

3.56 Unfortunately, while the educational expenditure data for both local governments and the federal government are available, those for the state governments as provided by the Central Bank and by case studies in nine states remain very limited. 3.57 Horizontal and vertical fiscal imbalances. All federal countries may face these imbalances. With regard to horizontal imbalances between states and between local governments, the discussion in this report is limited, but it is obvious that there are major differences both between local governments across states and between local government within states in the financial burden that results from the way primary education is funded. Essentially, payments for teacher salaries are deducted from each local government’s Federation Account allocation before any remainder is distributed. In local governments that are educationally developed, there is a significant requirement for this purpose, but there is little in the allocation mechanism to ensure that this requirement can be met. Such governments may not be allocated more resources than local governments whose requirements are low. 3.58 There are some indications that vertical imbalances exist between tiers of government and that their impact may have been detrimental to the educational system. Overall, public education expenditures as shares of GDP and total government spending appear to have fallen over time, and at the end of military rule in 1998 they were below those of most other sub-Saharan African countries. Further, the distribution of these expenditures appears to have moved toward that level of education--tertiary--most dependent on the federal government. Two questions are raised: first, whether the decrease in the measures of educational expenditure has been a result of too small a share of total public financial resources being allocated to those levels of government that have most responsibility for education; second, whether the shift in expenditure shares from primary to tertiary education is connected to the finances of the level of local government having been the most constrained while that of the federal government has been least constrained. This report cannot answer these questions, but it is sufficient to raise them. 3.59 Since 1999, substantial salary increases have raised education’s share of governments’ resources to levels that may be comparable to those of many other countries,

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but the growth of “zero allocations” to some local governments after the payment of teacher salaries, continued nonpayment of secondary school teachers in some states, and the ongoing lengthy strike of university teachers suggests that serious issues remain. 3.60 Private expenditures. Information gathered on private expenditures in the state case studies is again very approximate. However, it is sufficient to conclude that the cost of public education for students and households is significant, even when only direct costs for fees and other charges and educational materials are considered. The higher up the system, the greater are the indirect costs, such as for transport and accommodation. In addition, the evidence suggests that almost one-fifth of secondary schools are private and that private primary schools are also widespread in several states. It is tempting to suggest that the relative fall in the share of government education expenditure is being taken up by parents. If this is the case, the impact on equity and access will be an important issue to address in the future. 3.61 Educational facilities. The consultants’ case studies, which largely underpin the analysis of state government expenditures in this report, provide a rich commentary on the current state of educational facilities. In all cases, there are descriptions of widespread neglect. Compared to several African countries, the teacher:pupil ratios in Nigeria are favorable, despite wide variations between states and local government, and presumably between schools (see chapter 4). A greater problem appears to be the very inadequate physical conditions under which most children study and the lack of educational materials. 3.62 Funding the UBE program. While the data on educational expenditures are inadequate, the federal government has made a commitment to universalize basic education and therefore will have to consider the modalities of financing. In terms of the financial requirements for this commitment, currently primary education is underfunded nationally in the sense that the gross enrollment ratio is below 100, the average teacher:pupil ratio is above the norm in half of the states, physical facilities are generally poor, and teaching-learning materials and equipment are well below those required. The recent large increase in the share of education expenditure in GDP has not affected these inputs. More important, however, national aggregates are inadequate for understanding federal countries such as Nigeria. Even if the gross enrollment ratio were above 100 and theoretically there were places in primary schools for every Nigerian child, this would be of no relevance to states where the ratio is, say, 60 percent. “Excessive” resources in one state cannot be transferred to another state. 3.63 Two separate financing problems face the federal government. First, currently, local governments that are educationally advanced are having to use very much greater shares of their revenues to maintain the current system, and the same is probably true of state governments. The shares of the Federation Account transfers being used for primary schooling range from 25 to 84 percent. This situation discriminates against educationally developed states and local governments in favor of those that have not expanded their systems. The second problem affects the states where the provision of education is relatively low. In order for them to expand the provision of schooling, and perhaps also to create demand through incentives, the share of their Federation Account allocations devoted to education will have to increase and that allocated to other activities fall. The question is whether these states are willing to do take this step. Further, in addition to relatively low enrollment levels, fertility rates in these states are significantly higher than in the states with higher enrollment rates. The effort required will be that much greater. Since the federal government has made universalization of basic education a national objective, additional funds will need to be directed to educationally backward states. Given that the current

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funding modality is against the interests of the educationally advanced states, an important question is what sort of mechanism and procedures can be devised to avoid further increasing this discrimination. 3.64 The situation has been complicated by a set of Supreme Court judgments in early 2002 that led to the withdrawal of a proposed Universal Basic Education Act that would have ensured that basic education was funded from a special fund financed as a first charge on the Federation Account before any further allocations to the three tiers of government. This ruling does not deny the possibility of the federal government supporting primary education using funds from its own allocations, with the states cooperating on a voluntary basis. In principle, two sets of possible approaches exist:

a. The allocations from the Federation Account to the local governments and to states could be increased to allow them to raise expenditures on the program either through agreed-upon deductions at source, new laws obligating state governments to provide at least a minimum level of service, or voluntarily.

b. The federal government could make specific-purpose grants to state and local governments.

An increase in the share of the Federation Account for the state governments from 24 percent to 33 percent has been recommended by the Revenue Mobilisation and Fiscal Commission but not yet approved by the legislature. No recommendations were made to alter the distribution between state or local governments. The aggregate increases would allow governments to increase their funding for primary and junior secondary education (as long as overall Federation Account revenues increase) but by no means guarantee it. To persuade the state governments in educationally backward to actively encourage increased enrollments will still require incentives. One large federal country that has transformed the provision of basic education in recent years by combining a mix of larger financial allocations to lower levels of government with changes to the constitution requiring minimum expenditures shares on education is Brazil. 3.65 The second approach (b) would be to allocate specific purpose grants to the states. However, since entry into primary schooling is virtually universal in the southern zones and in North Central, and since there is no inbuilt feature of the allocation mechanisms to compensate these states for the costs of high enrollment, such grants would need to be available for the expansion of basic education, rather than primary schooling alone, if they are to be equitable. Such a scheme would not then be focused on the greatest national educational need, but rather on each state’s greatest educational need. This, however, would require a much larger overall level of funding from the federal government at a time when it is being recommended that its share from the Federation Account be reduced. An example of a large federal country that over the past decade has used specific grants to expand primary schooling is India. Grants have been for specific districts within states, and the criterion adopted has been a lower than average level of female literacy. Five-year programs have been funded but implemented across states at different times. 3.66 Current thinking within the federal government is to set aside funds to allocate to states for the Universal Basic Education program as a first charge on its own consolidated revenue fund. The use of a first charge, the total amounts involved, the criteria for distribution, and associated requirements on the states need to be carefully assessed. The circumstances in which a first charge on the budget are justifiable are generally regarded as

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few. It is not clear why the Ministry of Finance has acquiesced in this case. In addition, given the very poor information available on educational expenditures (particularly for the second cycle of basic education--junior secondary), it is perhaps premature to specify a fixed proportion of federal government revenues for this purpose. The criteria to be used for allocating grants across states are not included in the draft bill. The challenge here is to avoid rewarding those states and local governments that are unwilling to use their own resources for education or penalizing those that do allocate relatively large shares of their revenues. Finally, there is the question of what is required of the state governments in terms of plans, outcomes, and reforms in exchange for the grants. Other federal countries use such specific-purpose grants for purposes that include universalizing schooling. It may be useful for the federal government to gain a greater understanding of how other countries have approached these issues. 3.67 The bottom line in the area of education finance is that currently primary education is underfunded even with fewer than 75 percent of children completing the cycle. The call for universal basic education is unrealistic within this setting without a considerable increase in the level of resources. This implies both that the responsible level of government has access to the required resources and that these resources be used for the purposes of primary education. The issue of whether universal primary education is really to be a national target needs to be resolved. If it is to be a meaningful national target, then serious analysis of the expenditures involved will have to be made, incentives and requirements placed on the states to allocate sufficient funding (the Brazilian example), and/or a framework devised for the (voluntary) allocation of federal government grants (the Indian example). 3.68 Improving information on education expenditures. Much more needs to be done to improve information on educational expenditures in Nigeria; the main problem lies in estimating state government expenditures. There is no constitutional requirement for states even to report their budgetary transactions to the federal government, a situation that could change if the Fiscal Responsibilities Act becomes law. The institution best placed to undertake the systematic collection of education expenditure data is probably the Central Bank of Nigeria in coordination with the policy and research units of the federal Ministry of Education. Without far better information on the unit grade and cycle costs, and their components, it will not be possible to determine the financial implications of universalizing either primary or basic education or to consider the impact, for example, of increasing internal efficiency or of higher levels of cost recovery in post-basic education. More generally, without improved financing and expenditure data, it will be difficult to begin to address the fundamental issues of vertical and horizontal imbalances as they apply to the education sector.

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CHAPTER 4: QUALITY OF PRIMARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION AND LEARNING OUTCOMES

4.1 The quality of educational services and the learning outcomes of children are determined by a large number of factors. The first part of this chapter briefly describes the way in which the delivery of these services is managed in Nigeria at each level of the system. The second part of the chapter focuses on just a few of the inputs into teaching that are susceptible to policy changes. In particular, there is a concentration on the deployment of teachers across primary and secondary schools, and on their training and behavior in, particularly, the primary schools. In the third part, some evidence is presented on the levels of pupil learning achievement, again mainly in primary schooling.7

Structure and organization of the education system

4.2 Nigeria’s National Policy on Education (NPE) was adopted in 1981 and was revised in 1995 and 1998. A structure of 6-3-3-4 was put in place, with six years of primary, three years of junior secondary, three years of senior secondary, and tertiary education of various lengths with at least four years for university education. The National Policy sets out the basic philosophy, objectives, and structure of the education system and articulates the values and roles of each of its levels. The Policy also describes the national approach to the language of instruction, examinations and continuous assessment, and guidance and counseling services. The broad policy framework of the NPE has been underpinned by provisions for the right to education in the 1979 and 1999 versions of the Constitution. The structure of the system is outlined in figure 4.1. For each level of education, and for each type of institution within each level, the entry requirement, selection mechanism, mode of assessment, examination body, and form of certification are described.

4.3 The Universal Basic Education (UBE) program was launched by President Obasanjo in 1999 at the beginning of his elected administration and aims to provide a basic education cycle of nine years to all children (primary and junior secondary). There are also provisions for pre-primary, mass literacy, and adult education. The program revives and builds on the languishing universal primary education scheme, initiated in 1976. New bills regulating the management of basic education and higher education are currently being considered within the legislative process.

4.4 Over time, the powers of the federal, state, and local governments in Nigeria have been revised as a result of both changes to the Constitution and the perceived abilities of each level to undertake the financial and managerial responsibilities that they have been assigned. In the public education sector, no single tier of government has absolute responsibility, and for each sub-sector there are varying degrees of overlap. Since 1979, university education has been assigned to both federal and state governments, but federal institutions provide places for more than three-quarters of the students. Other areas of tertiary education such as polytechnics and colleges of education are also managed and financed by both of these tiers of government but, in these cases, the state governments play the larger role. All of secondary education is managed and financed by the state governments apart from the 96 Federal

7 For the sections on the demand and supply of teachers and on classroom interactions, this chapter draws heavily on Audrey Aarons (2003), “Achieving Universal Basic Education: issues in primary education and some implications for teacher policies.”

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Government Colleges (unity schools and federal technical colleges), which are spread equally across states. In general, the financing and management processes for secondary and tertiary education have been stable. This has not been the case for primary schooling. Figure 4.1. Structure of the Nigeria Education System

Age Colleges of Education Universities Polytechnics 18-22 A. Senior School

Certificate (SSC) B. Matriculation

Examination C. Course Unit

System D. Colleges of

Education E. Nigeria Certificate

of Education (NCE)

A. SSC or national diploma (ND)

B. Matriculation examination (for SSC holders) or direct entry (for ND or A level holders)

A. SSC National Technical Certificate (NTC) or MBC for National Diploma (ND) level; ND + 2 years industrial experience for Higher National Diploma (HND) level

B. Poly Jam (PCE) for ND or matriculation examination for pre-ND

C. Course unit system D. Polytechnics E. ND and HND

Technical Colleges Senior-Secondary Schools 15-18 A/B. Junior School Certificate (JSC)

=Common Entrance examination by NABTEB, or Craft Certificate= 2 years industrial experience for Advanced craft levels C. Continuous assessment = national

exam by NABTEB D. Federal Ministry of Labour &

NABTEB E. Trade test, National Technical

Certificate (NTC), National Business Certificate (NBC), ANTC and ANBC

A. Junior School Certificate (JSC) B. Based on JSC result C. Continuous assessment and national

exam D. West African Examinations Council

(WAEC) or National Examination Council (NECO)

E. Senior School Certificate (SSC)

Junior secondary schools 12-15 A. Completion of primary school

B. Entrance examination C. Continuous assessment and State Examination D. Federal and State Ministries of Education E. Junior School Certificate (JSC)

Primary schools 6-11/12 A. Age of 6 years

B. Registration C. Continuous assessment D. School authorities E. First School Leaving Certificate

Source: United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) Notes: A = entry requirement; B = selection mechanism; C = mode of assessment; D = examination body; E = diploma on graduation 4.5 Since the late 1980s, many changes have occurred to the institutional framework, which supports primary education, and more are currently being considered to bring it further in line with the 1999 Constitution. Over the past decade or so, primary education has been managed largely through a centralized structure led by the National Primary Education Commission (NPEC, and renamed the Universal Basic Education Board in 2000), which has had responsibilities for payment of teachers salaries, distribution of textbooks and school furniture, and allocation of resources for primary schools through the State Primary Education Boards (SPEB) and Local Government Education Secretaries. A uniform primary

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school curriculum and set of textbooks has been determined at the federal level (Nigeria Education Research and Development Council) and a uniform program of teacher education and training developed (National Commission for Colleges of Education). Funds for primary school teacher salaries have been deducted at source from the Federation Account allocation to local governments (described in chapter 3). The payment of primary teacher’ salaries has been administered by NPEC through the states and local governments. Opening of new schools, teacher recruitment, and teacher deployment are all theoretically local government decisions but, in practice, have been dependent on the approval of SPEBs (and by implication, by NPEC). The Universal Basic Education Act, currently undergoing legislative review, is likely to restore more of the responsibilities for primary schooling to the state and local governments.

Conditions in the primary schools

Schools and access to schooling. 4.6 Historically, substantial north-south differences have existed in the provision of primary schooling. Prior to the early 1970s, the largely Christian south was served by a large number of private missionary schools, providing basic education. These were then taken over by state governments. In some states there has been a recent reversal of this policy, with church agencies being asked to take back schools, and an encouragement more generally of private schools, especially in the urban areas. This is seen most notably in Lagos State, where around 50 percent of the enrollment is thought to be in these schools.

4.7 In the predominantly Islamic north, there has been a century-long tradition of Arabic-language Islamic education as an alternative or supplement to western schooling. While public schooling has expanded everywhere, Muslim communities in the north, the middle belt, and the south west have established Qur’anic schools to teach the Koran and the Arabic language. These schools tend to be small, run by the local imam, and operate often outside or in a private house with few resources. Recently, efforts have been made in most of the northern states to transform these schools into “islamiyah” schools, teaching the national, secular curriculum, in addition to providing religious instruction. At this stage, a wide range of school types exist, from registered, formal islamiyah schools with substantial government support (paid teachers, infrastructure, and textbooks) to transient Qur’anic schools, operating for only a few hours a day with a rudimentary level of instruction, and whose students often attend a government school as well.

4.8 Schooling has accelerated at different rates in different time periods in different regions. The 2002 school census collected information on the ages of primary schools. The figures below indicate the number of schools that were newly established during various decades: <1949 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2,986 6,100 1,555 16,000 3,592 9,431 Periods of major expansion occurred in the south during the 1950s, across the whole country but particularly in the north during the universal primary education program of the late 1970s, and again in the 1990s. The difference in the development of schooling between southern and northern areas before Independence can be vividly demonstrated through presenting the shares of current schools that were established before 1960 in a sample of states. These are described for seven states in table 4.1. In Imo State, almost four-fifths of the existing schools

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were established before 1960 and in several other southern states the share is more than half. In contrast, less than 5 percent of current schools in several northern states had been established at that time. ___________________________________________________________ Table 4.1. Period of Primary School Construction, Selected States Total Schools (2002) Established Before 1960 Percent _______________________________________________________________________ Southern States Imo 1,299 1,012 77.9 Ogun 1,678 1,016 60.5 Delta 1,832 972 53.1 Northern States Yobe 883 38 4.3 Taraba 1,270 40 3.1 Zamfara 825 26 3.1 Sokoto 1,893 30 1.6 _______________________________________________________________________ Source: School Census 2002 data sheets. 4.9 The growth of primary schools, both before Independence and since, has obviously improved levels of access. The 2002 school census presents some data on the average distance that children travel to school. Overall, 7.7 percent of children are in schools where the average traveling distance is over two kilometers. There are some variations, however. In eight (southern) states the share is more than 10 percent and reaches 22 percent in Ebonyi. This measure is not perfect in measuring physical access, because it only covers those children who do enroll, but as an indicator the results appear to be quite positive. Another indicator of access provides rather less positive information. The Core Welfare Indicator Questionnaire (CWIQ) surveys in eight states defined access to primary school as being within a 30-minute walk. Across the states this measure averaged 75 percent. For rural children, the range was between 56 percent in Yobe and 88 percent in Kogi.

Teachers: numbers, qualifications, and distribution.

4.10 Primary school teachers are selected, appointed, and deployed by local government education secretaries under approval from the SPEBs. In recent years, some local governments have been reluctant to recruit new teachers, or to receive additional ones, because of the large share of their Federation Account allocation already being deducted for teachers’ salaries. Teacher deployment basically occurs at the local government level, and teacher promotion is incremental based on the number of years of service. There is no regular teacher in-service training system in place, but in some states local governments have supported teachers in upgrading courses or in undertaking the recently introduced accelerated Pivotal Teacher Training Program. 4.11 The recent school census provides information on the total number of primary school teachers for 1999, 2000, and 2001. These are described below in table 4.2, together with earlier estimates for 1992 to 1998. Following a period of little expansion, the number grew by 16 percent between 1998 and 2001. In the latest year, female teachers accounted for 49 percent of all primary school teachers. However, the variations across states are very wide: from 78 percent in Imo and 76 percent in Lagos to just 12 percent in Zamfara and 7 percent in Jigawa. The average across states in the North East zone is 33 percent and across the North West, 20 percent. States with low female enrollment are also likely to be states with a low

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share of female teachers. Experience shows that successful strategies to raise female enrollment are often linked to targeted strategies to increase the number of female teachers in those areas where female enrollment is low. 4.12 The National Certificate of Education (NCE) is regarded as the minimum qualification for primary and secondary teachers. In 2001, 41 percent of primary school teachers nationally held this qualification. Again there are significant differences across the country with northern states generally having lower shares, and differences between rural and urban areas. For instance, the share in both Yobe and Zamfara is just 13 percent compared with 66 percent in Oyo and 73 percent in Osun. Much of the recent increase that has occurred is because of the participation of existing teachers in the NCE upgrading courses, especially the distance education program. There is a salary incentive of 50 percent to upgrade. However, participation in these courses is declining. This is attributed to the high personal direct and opportunity costs, plus the responses of some local governments, which claim that they cannot afford to pay the additional salaries and which attempt to retain teachers on the lower pay scales. 4.13 The policy norm for teacher distribution is one teacher for 40 children and it is assumed that the primary school teacher would be a grade teacher, with the exception of specialist teachers for religious education. Pupil:teacher ratios between 1992 and 2001 are presented in table 4.2, although, particularly to 1998, they need to be viewed with caution. ______________________________________________________________________ Table 4.2. Primary School Teachers and Pupil:Teacher Ratios, Nigeria, 1992 to 2001 (000’s) 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 ____________________________________________________________________________________ Teachers 384 428 435 437 416 407 419 432 446 487 Pupil/Teacher 39 37 37 36 34 36 38 41 43 40 ____________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Statistics Division, Ministry of Education and School Census data sheets. The overall pupil:teacher ratio, at 40 in 2001, reflects the official norm and compares favorably with the Sub-Saharan African average of 44. There are, however, considerable variations across the states. For 2001, the distribution of pupil:teacher ratios across states is described below: Pupil:Teacher Ratio

11–20 21–30 31–40 41–50 51–60 61–70 71+ Number of States 2 11 3 7 8 1 4 In only nine of the 36 states is the ratio between 35 and 45. In more than one-third of the states the ratio is below 30, indicating considerable surpluses. By contrast, in 13 states the ratio is reported to be more than 50. The highest ratios are in the states in the North West and North East zones. 4.14 In ten states, the analysis can be taken further. In table 4.3, state averages are presented together with the highest and lowest ratios across the local councils. The data are for 2000 and were provided directly by the states. The range across local governments within the same state is very wide. The narrowest range is Lagos (24 to 60) and the broadest is

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Borno (14 to 96). There is obviously considerable scope for teacher redeployment within states. Graph 4.1 further demonstrates the wide, and inconsistent, variations in teachers across local governments within four states. While there is an overall positive relationship between the numbers of teachers and the number of pupils, it is not very strong. For instance, in Kaduna State it appears that local governments with around 30,000 pupils have between 200 and 800 teachers. The relationship between teachers and pupils has also been analyzed across schools in the same local government area. Graph 4.2 presents the results for one local government in Imo State and one in Kaduna State. Again, there are wide variations in the number of teachers that correspond to a constant number of pupils. There is obviously considerable scope for teacher redeployment within states and within local governments. ___________________________________________________________________ Table 4.3. Variations in Pupil:Teacher Ratios within Selected States, 2000 State Average Highest LGA Lowest LGA ________________________________________________________________________________ Borno 39 14 96 Ebonyi 39 26 66 Rivers 50 36 65 Kaduna 44 28 99 Katsina 39 20 83 Lagos 37 24 60 Niger 45 14 75 Oyo 36 25 88 Plateau 43 22 80 Taraba 51 11 68 ____________________________________________________________________ Source: State data. Note: LGA = Local Government Authorities

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Graph 4.1: Relationship Between Teachers across Local Governments in Four States

00 50000 100000

Number of pupils per LGA

N

200400600800

1000120014001600

umbe

r of t

each

ers

per L

GA

Graph 4.2: Teachers and Pupils across Schools within Two Local Governments

0

5

0 500 1000 1500 2000

Number of pupils per school

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Imo Borno Ekiti Kadunaimbait oli, Imo ikar i, kaduna

4.15 At least part of the reason for the surplus teachers that exist in more than one-third of states is that in small rural schools with low enrollments, head teachers insist that there is a teacher shortage and lobby for additional posts. One teacher for one grade, plus a head teacher, is often seen as the requirement, irrespective of enrollment. But in many local governments, more than half the schools will be in communities where the total school enrollment is never likely to be much more than 120. The concept of small school management and multi-grade organization is not well applied in Nigerian primary schools. 4.16 Overall, the recent estimates of primary school teachers indicate that in more than half of the states there is a shortage based on the teacher norms of 1:40. These states are very often the same ones that have the lowest primary school participation rates. There are, however, states where the number of primary school teachers is sufficient to enroll many additional children before more teachers are needed. In practice, though, a state may have sufficient numbers of teachers but they will be poorly distributed across local governments and schools. In general, urban areas are favored over rural areas. But often, also, small rural schools have an excess of teachers for the number of children enrolled, because teachers have been appointed based on the number of grade levels in the school, not on the basis of the school’s total enrollment. The evidence suggests that in all states it would be possible to move toward a more equitable distribution of teachers across schools, while in several, mainly, northern states the mal-distribution is compounded by an overall shortage of teachers. Gap between the demand for primary teachers and college output.

4.17 Additional teachers are required currently in half of the states and the number of additional primary enrollments can be expected to increase in all states in the future. The NCE, which is the minimum approved qualification for teachers in primary, junior secondary, and technical and vocational schools, is offered in 67 colleges of education. Twenty of these are federal colleges, 42 are state colleges, and 5 are private. The National Teachers Institute is the main source of NCE and Grade II8 teacher upgrading programs through distance education. It is also piloting an innovative accelerated course of 18 months training for 8 The Grade II teachers certificate has been phased out as a pre-service teacher training program that was previously offered in teacher training institutions (also phased out). However, large numbers of teachers have qualifications below this level and are able to upgrade through distance education programs.

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primary teachers: the Pivotal Primary Teacher Training Program (PTTP). This was introduced in response to anticipated increases in the level of demand arising from the UBE program. Overall, however, the number of NCE graduates specializing in primary education in the recent past has been small. Data extrapolated from a recent pilot study of colleges in seven states suggest the following picture:

• While the growth rates of total enrollments in colleges of education have increased recently, the absolute number remains low. Between 1999 and 2001 the increase in the total numbers of students enrolled in each institution in the study sample ranged between 36 and 86 percent. But these increases only translated into an additional 371 and 1,783 students, which was well below the need in each state. No data are available on drop out, number of years to complete the course, or numbers who enter teaching.

• NCE enrollments as a share of total enrollments are surprisingly low in some

colleges. It is estimated that the total graduate output from all colleges in 2002 was 40,000. But this includes students taking degree courses as well as those taking NCE courses. While the NCE share was 86 percent in Zaria and 72 percent in Lagos, it was only 17 percent in Imo. In addition, many students are taking subjects in the NCE, which will leave their options open for pursuing degree studies or for careers other than teaching, while others will enter directly into the degree programs.

• The number of NCE students specializing in primary education is very low

indeed. In 2000/2001, the share ranged from 10 to 33 percent and in four colleges of education it declined over the three-year period surveyed.

• Overall, output of NCE graduates specializing in primary education does not

meet requirements in many states. To take two examples, in 2000/01, Kaduna State required an additional 1,349 primary school teachers for its public schools compared with a total of 290 new graduates who had specialized in primary education. Similarly, Taraba State required an additional 3,509 trained primary school teachers but could expect only an estimated 395 new NCE graduates of whom an estimated 170 would be specialist primary school teachers.

4.18 There are two other considerations. First, teachers need to be trained and recruited for special environments. There are many states with pockets of very low primary enrollments. Strategies to embrace all school-age children may require different models of schooling with teachers recruited and trained to teach specifically in such environments. An illustration of strategies that already exist are the schools for children of nomadic pastoralists and migrant fishermen. Other groups to be considered are children in the work force, rural communities with difficult access such as those in the river areas of the Niger delta, and areas of sparse population density such as in many northern states. Second, HIV/AIDS will have an impact on future teacher requirements. In 2001, the national prevalence rate was 5.8 percent, or roughly 3.5 million people. Across states the range was between 1.8 percent in Jigawa and 13.5 percent in Benue. HIV/AIDS prevalence is highest in the 20–24 years age group (the core group from which new teachers are recruited), and it is also high in the 25–29 years age group. Some examples of possible attrition of primary school teachers due to deaths from HIV/AIDS by 2010 are given for three states in table 4.5. The three states represent states that currently have low prevalence rates (Plateau), medium rates (Lagos), and high rates (Benue).

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From these three states alone it can be seen that around 4,500 primary school teachers could be expected to die from the disease in the next seven years. These estimates are based on the low case prevalence increase which assumes that government and communities will actively participate in disease prevention.

Table 4.5. Primary Teachers, HIV/AIDS Prevalence and Projected Teacher Attrition by 2010, Selected States

State 2000

Teacher Numbers 2010 HIV/AIDS Impact

Low Case High Case

Plateau (low prevalence)

15,594 5% attrition (918 teachers)

12% attrition (2,193 teachers)

Lagos (medium prevalence)

18,202 5.5% attrition (861 teachers)

14% attrition (2,218 teachers)

Benue (high prevalence)

16,886 13.5% attrition (2,779 teachers)

26% attrition (4,364 teachers)

4.19 Overall, there is a gap between the demand in the states for trained, generalist primary teachers and the output of colleges of education. There is also a time lag of at least three years between a student entering the pre-service program, graduation, and employment. A number of different teacher preparation, induction, and professional development approaches will need to be conceptualized that reduce the time lag between initial training and employment. The PTTP model is a beginning in this direction. With some modification to ensure that the content focuses on actual classroom needs and that there is appropriate continuous teacher development, it could meet the quantitative and qualitative needs of rapid expansion. Different selection criteria for entry into teaching may need to be considered to meet community demands for culturally appropriate teachers, as in the case of attracting females to school.

Physical conditions of classrooms.

4.20 There are 49,326 government primary schools. The average school size is 393 students, although there are very wide variations across the states. The range is between 178 in Niger and 787 in Akwa Ibom and, in ten states, the average is more than 500. Class sizes are low, averaging 26 pupils. Across states in the South West zone the average is 22 compared to 30 in both the North West and North East zones. These numbers, however, are state averages, which in many cases do not convey the situation on the ground. In addition, in many schools, several classes are taught simultaneously in one large room and field visits give the impression of much overcrowding and often poor physical conditions. There are schools in the South East where there has been no major rehabilitation of school infrastructure since large-scale damage during the civil war 30 years ago and damaged schools are now collapsing. Equally, school infrastructure in the northern states and in urban schools has not been able to keep pace with the rising population and many schools are operating in shifts or in combined classes without adequate furniture and facilities. In urban schools, it is not uncommon to find 120 or more children of a single primary class crowded together, sitting on the floor in one room with several teachers in attendance and using survival techniques to teach. There are also cases where up to five or six classes are being held simultaneously in a long hall, badly in need of refurbishment, and without any partitions

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between the class groups. Managing teaching and learning in these environments is noisy, uncomfortable, and dispiriting.

4.21 The report of one of the action research teams on school-based professional support (described below) included the following description of the school environment within which they conducted their work:

Schools we worked in were in a deplorable situation, with children sitting on the floor in a good number of classes and lacking the most basic learning materials. Teachers not only lacked the necessary background to teach reading, writing, and mathematics effectively, they were generally weak in English, lesson planning, lacked the wherewithal for producing teaching aids, and of generating creative ideas. Teaching was largely teacher centered chalk and talk. A high percentage (more than 90 percent) of pupils in classes 4–6 could hardly read and write due to limited exposure, low motivation, lack of textbooks, support materials, and interactive activities. Absenteeism was a common factor.

Basic teaching and learning materials.

4.22 The supply of basic teaching-learning materials such as teacher guides, textbooks, and reading materials is limited. Distribution of textbooks to students improved in the mid-1990s, but there has been no replacement policy or additional distribution since then. Textbooks and reading materials in the major Nigerian languages are lacking and there are few, if any, teaching and learning materials in classrooms other than blackboards. Libraries and additional reading material are almost nonexistent.

Curriculum.

4.23 The national curriculum policy recognizes the value of a Nigerian language as the medium of instruction in the early years of primary education, but neither teachers nor students have appropriate texts to support effective implementation of the policy. The language policy provides for a transition to the English medium in upper primary classes, but again teachers lack appropriate skills and materials to support this. In practice, teachers use a variety of local languages that the children and they are familiar with, teach initial reading in English because that is the language of the only available textbooks, and switch to the lingua franca for general communication purposes and for supplementary reading if materials are available in that language (which is more likely to occur with Hausa than with Yoruba or Igbo). The curriculum and textbooks are not well designed to support a structured bilingual approach to teaching and learning in the early years and a transition to English medium at grade 4.

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Conditions in secondary schools

Schools and access to schooling. 4.24 While the UBE program has designated junior secondary schooling as part of basic education, all secondary schools operate across both junior and secondary education and students entering the first year of junior secondary mostly continue until the end of senior secondary. Secondary schools are largely located in the urban areas and compared with primary schools are much less easily accessible. Across the eight states with CWIQ surveys, only 32.5 percent of households are within 30-minute walking distance of these schools (compared with almost 75 percent for primary schools) and just 27 percent of rural households are within a 30-minute walking distance. In addition to the secondary schools managed by the state governments, there are 96 unity schools, managed by federal government. These were established as boarding schools to foster the unitary character of the country, with enrollments in each of these schools reflecting a cross-section of the population. Unity schools have become the favorite schools in the secondary system, with stiff competition for entrance and, in general, receiving higher levels of resources.

Teacher deployment and qualifications.

4.25 In 2001 there were 144,065 teachers in the 6,292 secondary schools. Of these, more than one-quarter were employed in Delta, Lagos, and Oyo States. Fifty-eight percent were male. In only six states were the majority of teachers was female. The average pupil:teacher ratio of 32 is significantly below that in primary schooling, although again there is significant variation across states. It is above 40 in five states and below 25 in five others The average across the states in the North West and North East zones is 37. Class sizes appear to higher than in primary school, averaging 37 and above 50 in one-third of the states. According to the school census, 58 percent of secondary school teachers are university graduates and an additional 40 percent are NCE holders. There is little difference in the distribution across the zones. However, data supplied by the Nigerian Educational Research Council (NERDC) suggests some caution. For the junior secondary grades the minimum standard qualification is the NCE. However, in several subjects, such as English language and mathematics, the NERDC regards around 50 percent of the teachers as being unqualified in subject expertise. In senior secondary the standard qualification is a university degree in the subject taught, together with training in education. However, for English language teaching, it is reported that only 37 percent of teachers meet this standard and 27 percent, for mathematics

The quality of teaching and levels of learning

Quality of teaching.

4.26 The NCE curriculum was reviewed in 2002 and will also be used for teacher in-service upgrading, undertaken through part-time distance education programs. There is some concern that the gap remains wide between the content and structure of the program and the specific needs of primary school teachers. Recent classroom research in Nigeria indicates that primary school teachers need (a) pedagogical skills to teach initial literacy, number, and basic science concepts to young children through their own language, and (b) knowledge of the importance of language to learning across the curriculum and for children to gain access to their culture. They also need to be capable of (a) managing children’s learning needs during the transition to English as the medium of instruction in upper primary classes, (b) using a

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range of techniques to check that children are learning and to provide the right kind of help when it is required, (c) involving children actively in learning processes and organizing groups, and (d) working with other teachers to develop teaching lessons and materials and to share ideas. 4.27 Several studies have been carried out recently on teaching and learning processes in a variety of primary school settings across the country. These include national studies of classroom interactions at primary class 3 and 6 and junior secondary class 3. In addition, action research studies are being carried out within the context of a three-year strategy to develop school-based teacher-led professional support systems. Findings from these have highlighted some priority areas for teacher development.

Use of instructional time. A great deal of school time is lost because of teacher

and student absenteeism, reductions in the actual numbers of days in the year that the school operates, and poor use of instructional time during the school day. From observations it appears that much of the school day is spent in unproductive activity with the teacher not teaching and the children not engaged in any learning activity. A large part of this is because of a lack of teaching materials, which include such basics as chalk, exercise books, pencils, and a textbook or teacher’s guide. Poor physical facilities are also a major contributing factor in most schools. In schools with large classes and poor teacher deployment practices, teachers spend a great deal of the time in disciplining the children and in teacher-directed activity. From classroom observations in a national sample that included public, private, and islamiyah schools––and teachers with various qualifications and experience––children would be actively involved for about 8 minutes in a 30-minute lesson, with the rest of the time being spent unproductively or simply listening to teacher monologues that provided little opportunity for response. Baseline reports from the action research activities in schools in seven states reported that primary school teachers do not regularly plan their lessons, rarely prepare any activity to actively involve children, or develop instructional material using local resources. They also noted that teachers had a narrow repertoire of pedagogical skills in areas such as Nigerian language learning and literacy, teaching through the medium of a Nigerian language, or teaching through the medium of English in upper primary, and practically no experience of organizing group learning.

Language use in the teaching learning process. Language policy is not well

implemented or supported causing teachers of early primary classes to use an unstructured mix of English and a Nigerian language. It was observed that at the primary class 3 level, teachers were using English about 70 percent of the time, but the English textbooks were too difficult for the children to read. There were no supporting texts in Nigerian languages. A baseline report from the action research team found that at in classes 4–6 children were barely literate in either a Nigerian language or in English and had little foundation of mathematics and science concepts, which might have been acquired in the early grades if children had been able to learn in a language they understood. It was also observed that in urban schools a large number of language groups would often be represented in a class, while teachers had little understanding or pedagogical skills to help them to teach in these contexts.

Organizing groups. Teachers have great difficulty in organizing children into groups for learning activities. This applies to teachers in regular grades and especially in small schools where multi-grade teaching is required. Observation of the use of instructional time (described above) and of children’s behaviors during lessons highlights the need for teachers to be able to group children for different kinds of learning activities and according to

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their pace of learning. The inability to organize classes in these ways is compounded, of course, by the lack of materials in classrooms. Facilitators in the action research program did, however, observe examples of good teaching in difficult circumstances.

Involving children actively in the teaching learning process. As was observed in the classroom interaction study, children are actively involved in learning for only a very small part of a lesson. Most of the time the teacher is talking or disciplining the children. Most teachers have not had any training since they graduated from their initial teacher training program and have become “deskilled” by the challenging environments in which they have to work. Where there has been support for teachers in their classrooms through the action research program –– and teachers are working in teams or sharing ideas with other teachers through teacher meetings –– they are preparing and using more instructional materials, and are developing ways for children to be more actively involved. The structured use of Nigerian languages was found to be the most important contributor to the active participation of children, especially in the lower classes.

Monitoring progress in children’s learning. Formal testing and examinations play a large part of a child’s life in primary schools. In addition to annual examinations, and examinations at the end of the primary cycle, very often there are term tests and monthly tests. But for many teachers, routine monitoring during classroom interactions in a lesson is not part of their repertoire of skills. And where they note that children are making errors, they have few diagnostic techniques to know how to help the child. 4.28 The lack of regular in-service teacher training or school-based professional development means that very few teachers have ever had the chance to acquire skills in problem solving on pedagogical issues related to their immediate experience. Studies of primary school classrooms are identifying areas of key importance to teacher training programs. These include teachers working as teams, and actively involving children in learning, creativity and problem solving processes. School-based, teacher-led activities for improved instruction and learning are being implemented. Alternative forms of teacher training are being developed (the PPTP and the Grade II certificate training for teachers of nomadic schools, discussed below). These give a much higher proportion of course time to school experience. The success of these school-based approaches will depend on the capacities of colleges of education, local supervisors, and model primary teachers to provide classroom support through a range of school improvement activities.

Learning outcomes of schooling.

4.29 Not surprisingly, given the prevailing teaching-learning conditions, the indicators of student learning achievements are low. The results of one set of indicators of the performance in numeracy and literacy of primary class 4 students comes from the national assessment carried out in 1996 (Falayajo et al. 1997). These results are presented in table 4.6. The overall means were 32 percent for mathematics and 25 percent for literacy.9 In the sub-test of writing, the mean was just 18 percent. There was little difference in the results between girls and boys. Students in private schools achieved higher scores than students in public schools, students in urban schools scored higher than students in rural schools, and there were

9 It should be noted that the primary class 4 test papers and the student responses were in English, which according to the national curriculum is the year in which the transition to English as the medium of instruction is to begin. No tests were given in a local language, so it is not known whether children would have performed any better on curriculum content if that were the case.

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considerable differences in achievement levels across states. However, even in the private schools the mean result was only a little above 40 percent. Students overall tended to perform better on oral tests than on written tests. Students from environments with a relatively high exposure to English (in private English-medium schools and in urban schools) had higher scores than those in public and rural schools. The best predictors of pupils’ achievement were the percentage of students who reported that English was their best subject and adequacy of instructional materials. The very low scores in literacy (and indeed in the other subjects) suggest particular problems in the implementation of language policies and in the use of English to test children’s knowledge across a band of subjects at the class 4 level. __________________________________________________________________ Table 4.6. Results of Monitoring of Learning Achievement Study, 1996 Mean Scores (percent)

Numeracy Literacy _______________________________________________________________________________ Overall 32 25 Girls 32 26 Boys 32 25 Urban 35 29 Rural 30 23 Public 30 23 Private 43 41 _________________________________________________________________ Source: Falayajo et al. 1997. 4.30 The 1996 national assessment was part of a wider UNESCO/UNICEF-supported Monitoring Learning Achievement project that assessed pupils in grade 4 in 13 countries: Botswana, Gambia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritius, Morocco, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Tunisia, Uganda, and Zambia. Graph 4.3 presents the results of an exercise to compare results across all of these countries. Those for Nigeria were the lowest.

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71.0

65.9

62.1

59.2

58.0

56.8

55.3

53.5

51.7

51.7

50.8

46.9

46.0

45.6

45.1

45.0

44.3

43.3

42.0

40.0

40.4

30.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

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Graph 4.3. Monitoring Learning Assessment Equivalent Scores, Sub-Saharan and North Africa, 1990s

4.31 Preliminary results of a national assessment10 of grade 5 students undertaken in 2002 indicated equally low levels of achievement. In tests of English and mathematics only 20 percent of students were able to answer correctly more than one-third of the test items and less than 1 percent of students were able to answer correctly more than half the test items. Boys had slightly better results than girls, but in this test there were no discernable differences between urban and rural children. Students in private schools again did better than those in public schools who, in turn, did better than those in islamiyah schools. Again there are variations across the states, although they are relatively small and there is no geographic pattern. For example, the highest performing states in mathematics were Cross Rivers, Jigawa, and Oyo. In English, the same states plus Ebonyi had the best results. 4.32 Overall, the national learning achievement assessments undertaken in primary schools indicate low levels of learning. This has important implications for the ways in which schooling is delivered and for what is taught in secondary schooling. Equally important, however, is the message it gives that children need to remain in school for the full primary cycle if they are to benefit from it. Because the transition rates from primary to secondary are relatively low, it is important that all primary leavers are literate. The 1999 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) provided information on the levels of literacy of adults by highest school grade attained. This is presented graphically for adults aged 22–44 years in graph 4.4. Virtually all those who entered secondary schooling are literate and, of those who finished primary schooling, the rate is around 87 percent. However, half of those children who dropped out after three years of schooling and around 40 percent of those who dropped out after four and five years never became literate in later life. It is worth noting that the definition of literacy in the MICS survey is minimal.

10 Federal Ministry of Education, UBE Program, 2003.

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0102030405060708090

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Highest Grade attained

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Graph 4.4 Percentage of Adults 22-44 Who Can Read According to the Highest School Grade Attained

4.33 In the secondary schools, students take the Junior and Senior Secondary Certificate Examinations. The percentages of students who received a credit and above in the major subjects at the end of the secondary cycle between 1998 and 2001 are presented in table 4.7. Credits are required for transition to tertiary education and are the minimum requirement for many jobs. Effectively they represent the pass rate. Apart from the Nigerian languages, the average pass rates over the four years ranged from 13 to 37 percent. Given the importance of the subject, the pass rates are particularly poor for English language. Those for mathematics and economics, were similarly low for the earlier years, although they appear recently to have improved. ____________________________________________________________________________________

Table 4.7. West Africa Examinations Council Senior-Secondary School Results, Selected Subjects, 1998–2001 Subject 1998 1999 2000 2001 Average ____________________________________________________________________________________ English Language 23.7 27.0 14.9 22.7 22.1 Mathematics 28.2 33.1 46.1 41.6 37.3 Economics 24.7 17.5 17.5 37.8 24.4 Agricultural Science 28.4 21.4 13.2 21.6 21.1 Commerce 39.1 27.7 22.8 23.2 28.2 Geography 16.1 12.0 13.2 10.0 12.8 Chemistry 21.7 14.8 7.0 24.7 17.0 Yoruba Language 76.7 61.5 68.8 37.7 61.2 Igbo Language 58.4 62.3 61.1 73.2 63.8 ______________________________________________________________________ Source: West Africa Examinations Council data sheets. 4.34 Examination data across tertiary education are not readily available. A recent UNICEF report, however, probably reflects the current situation:

Over the past decade, graduation addresses by most vice chancellors, provosts, and rectors have made reference to the downward slide in standards. Accreditation reports by

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the National Universities Commission, the National Board for Technical Education, and the National Commission for Colleges of Education have all alluded to falling standards, while employers have consistently decried the quality of graduates being turned out by the tertiary education system. Together, these various sources converge in suggesting a system-wide slide in quality at all tiers, from primary through higher education (UNICEF 2001.)

Conclusions and some implications

4.35 Averaging across all primary schools in the country, the primary pupil:teacher ratio is very close to the norm of 40:1. However, in only nine states is it between 35 and 45. The highest ratios are in states within the North East and North West zones. Even more varied are the ratios across local governments within states. The smallest range is Lagos where the ratios is between 42 and 60 and the widest is Borno where it is between 14 and 96. There is, then, a great opportunity across the country for greater efforts to redeploy teachers and create a greater consistency. Given the large number of small schools and the increased demand for teachers in the future there is also a need for a greater understanding of the possibilities of multi-grade teaching. 4,36 More than half of the states have pupil:teacher ratios below the national norm and in many of these the enrollment coverage is relatively low. At the same time, insufficient numbers are entering the colleges of education and the teaching profession. To meet current and future demands, governments might consider implementing proactive programs to encourage more students to enter primary teacher education along the lines of the innovative PTTP with its mix of distance education modes and school experience. There are several advantages to this kind of model: it puts teachers into classrooms more quickly; it makes teacher training more practical; its full impact on recurrent budgets is delayed until full accreditation is obtained some years down the track; and, because the initial training program is subsidized, it provides an incentive for more student teachers to prepare specifically for primary school teaching. The lack of opportunity for continuous professional development is an area in need of new initiatives. 4.37 Forty-one percent of primary teachers hold the NCE but again there are wide variations across states with a range of between 13 and 73 percent. The pace of teacher upgrading to the NCE appears to be slowing down. Females constitute 49 percent of all primary teachers, ranging between 7 and 78 percent. It is lowest in those states with the lowest rates of female enrollment. 4.38 In secondary schools, the average pupil:teacher ratio is 32:1. Again there are wide variations across states. In five states the ratio is below 25, while the average across states in the North East and North West zones is 37. A higher proportion of teachers are males than is the case in primary schooling, although females form a majority in six states. Overall, secondary teachers appear to be reasonably well qualified in terms of the national requirements, with 58 percent being university graduates and 40 percent being NCE holders. There is, however, a shortage of teachers trained in specific key subjects, including English language and mathematics. 4.39 Recent action research studies of teacher behavior in classrooms have suggested areas for improvement. These include the use of instructional time, the set of issues surrounding

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implementation of the language policy in the context of a lack of appropriate materials in the classroom, the organization of learning groups, and the use of diagnostic skills in monitoring the progress of pupils. Overall, the observations point to the need for much higher levels of in-service training. 4.40 Learning achievement tests undertaken by primary grade 4 pupils in 1996 and grade 5 in 2002 show quite poor results, particularly in language. Overall, achievements are higher in the private schools than in government schools and in urban schools than in rural schools. A comparison of the 1996 results with those for 21 other African countries found that Nigeria had the lowest scores. In the senior-secondary examination, the effective pass rates between 1998 and 2001 have averaged below 40 percent in all major subjects apart from Nigerian languages, and have been are particularly low in English language (22 percent), in geography (13 percent), and in chemistry (17 percent). In mathematics the effective pass rate increased from 28 to 42 percent.

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CHAPTER 5: ORGANIZATIONAL AND INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES

5.1 In the previous four chapters, organizational issues have been directly and indirectly alluded to many times. In chapter 3, enrollment data were presented that indicate, at best, a stagnation of the school system through the 1990s. This cannot be attributed wholly to an overall shortage of government financial resources. By 1998, in spite of all the continuing proclamations about the importance of education, the priority as measured by education’s share of total public resources had fallen significantly below that of previous decades and was well below that in most other African countries. However, the patterns of student survival, the wide variations in pupil:teacher ratios between and within states, the widespread problems in generating timely and accurate information, and the poor results in tests of pupil learning achievement suggest that the source of problems is beyond a scarcity of financial resources, and that the system could achieve more if it were more effectively organized. 5.2 The delivery of educational services in any country poses challenges. In large countries with a federal structure of government and administration, those problems multiply. When that country has been under military rule for most of the time that it has been politically independent, the task is particularly large. Nigeria is in that situation. However, with a second civilian government now in place, it becomes more possible to deal effectively with the complexities that are inherent within federalism, but that, if resolved, are a source of strength. And, aside from the fundamental issue of the allocation of revenues across governments, little can be of greater importance in this context than taking the measures that will lead to an improvement in educational services. 5.3 This chapter focuses on some of the most important organizational and institutional issues that face governments at all levels in Nigeria in their attempts to deliver educational services.11 It is divided into three sections: the division of responsibilities across the levels of government for the development and management of the education system; leadership and the setting of objectives and strategies; and the efficiency, modalities, and behavior of the organizations that manage the system. Much of the quantitative and qualitative information presented in this chapter is from case studies of the key organizations that manage the school education system in 13 states and the Federal Capital Territory, conducted by a team of eight Nigerian consultants in 2002. As with the collection of information for the discussion on education finance in chapter 3, the fieldwork behind this chapter was an arduous process.12 Since the case studies were undertaken, drafts of a new Universal Basic Education Act have been framed. The Act will lay out the nature of free and compulsory basic education; the broad responsibilities of a newly constituted Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC) at the federal level; the relationship between the state government Boards and the local government education authorities; and the principal of federal grants to the state Boards. Much remains to be clarified, but the Act will clearly address many of the issues raised in the first part of this chapter.

11 This chapter relies extensively on Orbach (2003) “The Capacity of the Nigerian Government to Deliver Basic Education Services.” 12 According to Orbach (2003), “Indeed, much information was not available, or accessible to the consultants. In some cases, even basic data is missing and in others the data is unreliable, containing many errors and some contradictions. In almost no case it was possible to compile and compare statistical data from all 54 organizations––or just from all State Ministries of Education, all State Basic Education Boards, or all Local Government Education Authorities––on a single variable” (p. 11).

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Division of responsibility for education across governments

5.4 The division of labor among tiers of government in Nigeria has most recently been laid out in the 1999 Constitution. Part I of the Second Schedule describes the exclusive legislative rights of the federal government over functions of national concern, such as defense and foreign affairs. Part II describes the concurrent areas in which both the federal and the state governments can act. These areas include education, from primary to tertiary. The Fourth Schedule provides a list of functions, such as water and sanitation, that are the responsibility of local government councils, as well as a list of functions for which the state governments are responsible, but in which the local governments can participate at the discretion of the states, including “the provision and maintenance of primary, adult and vocational education.” The thinking behind the 1999 Constitution was that in the concurrent functional areas the federal government would mainly provide policy direction, determine norms and standards and monitor achievement, and would leave implementation in the hands of the states. Furthermore, each state would determine the nature and extent of the involvement of local government participation in the delivery of services. In many ways the coverage of the educational sector in the 1999 Constitution was similar to that in the 1979 Constitution. 5.5 In essence, the Constitution has a list of areas that are the exclusive responsibility of the federal government and a list of areas that are the exclusive responsibility of local governments. Between the two, there is a list of areas that are concurrent. This includes all levels of the education sector. There is no specific allocation of responsibility for these concurrent responsibilities in the constitution: the federal government can get involved in them, the states are presumably the main parties responsible for them, and the local governments can participate in them, if the states so desire. Primary and, to a much lesser extent for the local governments, secondary and tertiary education are among these areas.

5.6 The lack of specificity in the country’s basic law regarding the division of labor in these concurrent areas potentially opens the door for the federal government and, to a reduced degree, for the state governments to do what they want in these areas. That is, to assume responsibility for some functions and to avoid others. This has been done through laws, decrees, and policy pronouncements that have often been promulgated independently of each other. Arguably, this has weakened the capacity of government, in general, to deliver services in the education sector by, among other things, allowing the federal government to take over roles and functions that were intended to belong to the states, and introducing excessive fragmentation into the performance of some key concurrent functions while reducing the level of interest in, and attention to, other functions.

Changed responsibilities in primary education.

5.7 The organizational structure of the education sector is complex. At the top is a Federal Ministry of Education (FMOE), 36 State Ministries of Education (SMOE), and a Ministry of Education for the Federal Territory. In addition there is a UBEC and 37 State Primary Education Boards (SPEBs), 774 Local Government Education Authorities (LGEAs) operating as departments of Local Government Authorities (LGAs), 20 parastatals under the FMOE, and innumerable parastatals within the states, including those for many tertiary institutions. The overriding role of the federal government is primarily to establish minimum

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standards for education throughout the Federation. These relate to the objectives of education and the content of the curriculum, and to the standards for the provision of textbooks, other instructional materials, and physical facilities. Other roles are to maintain a national register of primary school teachers; to collect, analyze, and publish national statistics on primary and secondary education; and to monitor the compliance of SMOEs and LGEAs with the standards. The role of the SMOEs is, in turn, to manage and run primary, secondary, and post-secondary schools and institutions based on these standards, with the help of LGEAs in the case of primary schools. To perform its role, the federal government has the FMOE, but it has also established 20 parastatals that are regulatory and professional bodies. These include the National Universities Commission, the National Board for Technical Education (Polytechnics), and the National Commission for Colleges of Education through which its responsibilities for tertiary education are carried out. Other parastatals include the Education Tax Fund, the Education Bank, and the Joint Matriculation Board. 5.8 During the last fifteen years, the federal government virtually took over the management of primary education from the states. The process started in 1988, when the National Primary Education Commission (NPEC) was established for the first time to help revitalize primary education. The Commission was dissolved in 1991 in an attempt to shift the responsibility for primary education back to the local governments. However, during the period of 1991–1993, when the responsibility was in the hands of local government,

The country’s primary education almost fell to the brink of total collapse. All over the country, primary school teachers embarked on incessant and prolonged strike actions to press home demand for their unpaid salaries…and teaching and learning suffered disastrously (Okoro in UNESCO, 1998 p. 46).

The Federal Military Government responded by re-establishing NPEC, and requiring all states to establish a SPEB. The decree provided for NPEC and the SPEBs to channel the disbursement of funds from the Federation Account needed to finance the primary education system as described in chapter 3. But it went much beyond the transfer of financial management by also transferring the management of human and physical resources to these organizations. In effect, NPEC––later renamed the UBEC––and the SPEBs became a parallel structure to that already existing within state ministries to administer primary education. They took over the management of primary education in the states, using the LGEAs to run the schools on a day-to-day basis, although not to manage the local government education systems.

5.9 In the parallel structure thus created, the LGEAs have reported directly to the SPEBs, the SPEBs directly to the UBEC, and the UBEC directly to the Federal Minister of Education. Although the LGEAs are within the structure of the LGAs, and thus of the local government in the state, they have reported directly to the SPEBs. The SPEBs were formed by the states, and theoretically they report both to UBEC and to the state governments, but in practice they have not been within the authority structure of the states. The chairs of SPEBs are not members of the State Executive Councils and generally have not reported to the Councils through the state ministries of education or through any other organization. They have reported only to UBEC, which is a federal organization.

5.10 One of the results of this system has been that the State Ministries of Education lost control of primary education. They have not been managing the biggest sub-sector of education in their own states. In some states, the SMOEs have begun losing control in other

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areas as well, as a result of the anticipated policy shift from universal primary education to Universal Basic Education (UBE). In one state, for example, it is reported that the SPEB has taken over from the SMOE the management of every area considered to belong to basic education, including nomadic education, early childhood development, adult and non-formal education, and all the junior secondary schools. The federal government justified the establishment of NPEC at the time, by saying that the local governments did not have the capacity to manage primary education. Since then, however, not much has been done to help the SMOEs and their LGEAs to improve their own capacity and reliance has continued to be placed on the parallel structure for the implementation of the UBE policy.

5.11 This situation created duplication, as well as an imbalances of power and capacity in the education sector. Although the function of managing primary education has been taken away from the SMOEs, the organizational units and staff dedicated to primary education have often remained in place. There are staff in these units with schedules of duties that read as if the SMOEs are in full charge of primary education. For example, the function of the Directorate of Inspectorate Services in one state is “to coordinate the implementation of programmes and projects of primary and secondary education as contained in the national policy on education.” The function of the Deputy Director for Primary Education in another SMOE is “to initiate and implement Government policies on matters affecting…primary education in the state” and “to take charge of primary and pre-primary education programs in the State.” And the overall function of the Primary Education Department in yet another SMOE is “to ensure the implementation and maintenance of Government policies in all primary schools in the state.” In practice, these duties have not been performed by the staff in charge at the SMOEs, because primary education has been managed by the SPEBs. The consultants reported that some primary education units had little substantive work and that staff were underutilized.

5.12 Even more important are the imbalances in power and capacity. While UBEC and the SPEBs have been in charge, state ministries of education have had little say about primary education in their states. LGEAs administer the schools under the SPEBs, but they do not control and manage the financial and human resources. This has limited them from improving their own capacity to manage.

5.13 Some aspects of the situation described above are changing, partly as a result of a ruling made by the Nigerian Supreme Court in April 2002. The Court ruled that the jurisdiction of the federal government to directly intervene (through UBEC) in the financing of primary school teachers should cease and that the allocations from the Federation Account be transferred directly to state and local government accounts. The ruling did not change the mandate of the federal government to provide general national guidelines, evaluation, monitoring, and benchmarking for basic education. However, it did put the role of UBEC, and the entire parallel structure, in question and provide an opportunity to restore the intended division of labor between the federal government and the states. The ruling also provides the opportunity to build a more appropriate division of labor between the states and their LGEAs. The new draft UBE act retains UBEC and the state Boards, but it remains to be seen how the broad provisions will be interpreted and implemented across the states now that state governments are more willing to push for greater autonomy in general. The SPEBs remain the strongest organizations in the education sector. Once the state governments begin to again fully manage primary education, they will be able to use the strength of these legally state-based organizations more effectively. The key will be in the ability to merge the SPEBs into the state ministries in ways that avoid the duplications described in the following section.

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The fragmentation of responsibility.

5.14 When a function does not have a clear unified organizational home, it often happens that everybody is doing something in that area, but no one is taking the lead. There is a tendency for nobody to assume full responsibility and manage the function as a whole. Thus, nobody formulates the vision, policies, and strategies for it; fights for resources; and monitors implementation. This situation has characterized some aspects of the schooling system in Nigeria in recent years. In this system each player has been free to decide what functions, or even activities within functions, it would carry out. The decisions have not been clearly guided by the view that all players need to complement each other and together create a system that is well-integrated.

5.15 To assess the level of functional integration in the primary education system, 12 key functions involved in its delivery were reviewed through the case studies in 13 states as described at the beginning of this chapter. Two of these functions belong clearly to the federal government and one function belongs clearly to the local governments and the schools. Eight of these functions fall into the areas of concurrent responsibility. The review suggests that at least two of the three functions that do not fall into the concurrent area have been led and managed better than the nine that do. These functions are the development of the basic common curriculum and the conduct of national monitoring, evaluation, and certification––both of which are responsibilities of the federal government.13 The third function that is not in the concurrent basket is the daily management of the schools and the actual delivery of instruction in them, for which the LGEAs and the schools themselves are the clear responsible parties.

5.16 The eight concurrent functions are : general management, curriculum adjustment/development at state level, pre-service teacher education and in-service teacher training, construction and maintenance of schools, inspection and quality assurance, personnel management, planning and budgeting. These functions are being performed less efficiently and effectively, but not because everybody is involved in them. Everybody could, and sometimes should, be involved. It is rather that everybody is involved with too little coordination and that nobody is taking the responsibility to lead each of the functions. The bottom line is that split responsibilities with little or no coordination make it difficult for integrated systems to develop. They open the door to duplication and waste. At the same time, the lack of clear leadership makes it impossible to hold anybody accountable for any function.

5.17 One of a number of examples is school supervision. At the federal level, there is a Federal Inspectorate Service with 1,296 staff that supervises schools and also grants accreditation and certification. In addition, UBEC has had a fully-fledged Monitoring and Evaluation department, responsible for monitoring all aspects of the primary education programs. Ten zonal offices across the country aid this department, each supervising three to four states. Monitoring officers at these zonal offices have visited the SPEBs, as well as the primary schools. SPEBs have School Services Departments whose officers also inspect the schools. Most, if not all, SMOEs also conduct inspections in the primary schools. As indicated above, many SMOEs have organizational units dedicated to primary education, and these include primary sub-units within their Inspectorate Departments. LGEAs too have school supervisors who visit the schools and compile school reports. Finally, in many cases, 13 For evidence that these functions are managed better, see Okoro, pp. 34–51, and Akpofure and N’dupu, pp. 120–125 in UNESCO, 1998

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SPEBs and SMOEs have special monitoring teams set up to monitor specific projects and programs. 5.18 With all these supervision activities, there seems to be no shared, coherent, and complementary vision for school supervision within the states and across them. Even fundamental policy matters require attention. For example, supervision has many objectives: to provide pedagogical support to the teachers; to monitor the quality of instruction; to check on the condition of physical facilities; to verify that government policies, rules, and regulations are being met; and to monitor the progress of specific plans and programs. The various parties that conduct supervision need to carefully consider these objectives and consciously select a focus for each. They need to complement each other. The consultants’ reports and the documentary material suggest that there is little coordination and that everybody seems to be doing a bit of everything. While some schools are visited quite frequently, others “have not seen an inspector or any other official for years.” There is also little evidence that much is being done with all of the information being collected. 5.19 Other examples of functions that have been suffering through the fragmentation of responsibility are school construction and school maintenance, the management of human resources, including teachers, and policy analysis and research. In this last case, it is not just a matter of a function where everybody is doing a little bit without leadership and direction. Rather, it is a function where few, if any, are doing something at all. Even at the FMOE, insufficient statistical work and research is carried out, as the lack of basic analysis of student flows indicates. UNESCO (1998), in its report on the status of education in Nigeria, concluded that “perhaps the greatest administrative obstacles to achieving the set of goals of the National Policy on Education have arisen from the use of inadequate or unreliable data in the making of major policy decisions...” (p. 7). The Government itself has confirmed that the lack of data is “a huge challenge that must be faced up to in the national response” (Federal Government of Nigeria, 2001)

The impact of the division of fragmentation on capacity.

5.20 Fragmentation usually results in the lack of an integrated, coherent, and holistic approach to the performance of functions. It also reduces accountability. To take the function of human resource management, in the basic education system in any of the states, it is nobody’s mission and responsibility to develop a holistic integrated approach to their management. Of course, in the end, teachers are trained; teachers and other staff are recruited, posted, and promoted in the system; most do get paid; performance is assessed; and some funds are devoted to in-service training. But the consultants’ reports, and the documentary material provided to them, suggest that all of this is done in a haphazard way and that none of the states in the study has a comprehensive policy on human resources development. There are no integrated human resources development plans. Jobs are not being analyzed using any of the technical tools available. Job descriptions, or schedules of duties, are weak. No systematic analysis is made of the skills content that these jobs require, the skills that jobholders have, and therefore the gaps that needs to be covered by training. No work load analysis is done with respect to the number of staff required on these jobs, and no deployment analysis is done with respect to the distribution and placement of staff in headquarters, field offices, urban and rural districts, and individual schools. Within the LGEAs, the SPEBs, and the SMOEs, it is the role of the Personnel Management Departments to provide the leadership necessary for the human resources function. But the fragmentation and their own

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weaknesses have prevented them from playing this role. Thus, they cannot be held accountable for it. 5.21 A similar situation applies to many other concurrent functions. The highly fragmented responsibility, together with the takeover of primary education by the federal government, has disempowered the SMOEs and the LGEAs. In the process, this situation has also made it impossible to hold them, or units within them, accountable for their work. The loss of accountability has been severe. Within the LGEAs, the overwhelming dependence on transfers from the Federation Account, and the inability to make almost any substantive decision on matters of resource allocation and deployment, has meant that all failures of delivery can be attributed to those who allocate resources and make decisions. At the SMOEs, the transfer of primary education to the SPEBs meant that, despite statements to the contrary, most SMOEs have not so far been playing a significant role in the UBE program. Claims were made at the federal level that the SMOEs were given a chance to adequately participate in the policymaking process for this program, but the SMOEs’ perception has been that they were merely called upon to rubber-stamp FMOE decisions. This has resulted in a culture characterized both by abdication at the SMOEs and dependence on the federal government at the LGEAs. In both cases, it is the federal government that SMOEs and LGEAs hold accountable for all that is taking place in primary education. The Supreme Court ruling and the passage of the new Act, together with the financial commitments being made by the federal government, all provide the opportunity for this situation to be reversed.

Objectives and commitment in basic education

Objectives.

5.22 In June 2001, the FMOE issued “Education for All in Nigeria, Current Status and Plan of Action.” This plan elaborates the objectives provided in the National Policy on Education, adding to them in many instances both indications of target output and target time for achievement. Based on this, the objectives of the Nigerian system of education are to –

• expand and improve comprehensive early childhood care and education, especially for the most vulnerable and disadvantaged children;

• ensure that by 2015 all children, particularly girls and those in difficult circumstances and belonging to ethnic minorities, have access to and complete free and compulsory primary education of good quality;

• ensure that the learning needs of all young people and adults are met through equitable access to appropriate learning and life skills programs;

• achieve a 50 percent improvement in levels of adult literacy by 2015, especially for women, and equitable access to basic and continuing education for all adults;

• eliminate gender disparities in primary and secondary education by 2005, and achieve gender equality in tertiary education by 2015, with a focus on ensuring girls’ full and equal access to, and achievement in, basic education of good quality; and

• improve all aspects of the quality of education, and ensure excellence of all so that recognized and measurable learning outcomes are achieved by all, especially in literacy, numeracy, and life skills.

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5.23 Based on the documentary material and verbal responses obtained at state and local government levels by the consultant team, it appears that, although the national vision is quite clear at the top of the system, it loses some definition as it is disseminated down through the 36 states, and to the 774 local government authorities. The most that can be said about a vision in the education sector at the state and local government levels is that it is a general one of increased enrollment and good education. The vision reflects the objective of increased enrollment, but does not always equate it with universal education, and it does not state the objective in specific output and time-bound terms. Many of the officials interviewed did not specifically refer to universal education, and most did not mention 2015, or any other year, as the year for achieving it. Most of the state and local government organizations visited did not provide time parameters with respect to the objectives included in the vision. The education sector’s vision also reflects the objective of good education, but what is considered good differed from speaker to speaker. For some it referred to the conditions in the classroom, while for others it referred to the content of instruction, or the level of scholastic achievement to be reached by the students. 5.24 The choice of the words “increased enrollment” and “good education” here is calculated. It reflects the shared understanding of the objectives of education in the country only at a high level of abstraction, but as far as the specific implications of these objectives are concerned, there is less common ground. It would not be correct to say that there is a shared objective of achieving universal education by 2015, because in most cases the SMOEs, SPEBs, and LGEAs did not include dates in their written or verbal statements. It seems as though many state and local government officials agree that universal education is a goal, but do not think it is practical to determine a date by which they will achieve it. The reason, quite clearly, is the high level of uncertainty about the availability of funds to achieve this goal. In addition, in several states not all of the officials interviewed, particularly in the local governments, regarded the attendance of girls in the schools as a high priority. They do want to increase enrollment, but they do not necessarily want to bring all girls to school. 5.25 Equally, it would not be correct to say that the meaning of good education is shared by all, mainly, but not only, because of differences regarding what is the desirable content of education. In the case of one state, some of the “western,” secular content of the curriculum is not regarded by all as contributing sufficiently to good education, because it does not give sufficient attention to ethics and moral behavior. There is also a concern about “the concentration of female teachers especially in urban areas,” suggesting that the objectives related to gender equity in schooling are not fully shared. This state is not the only one that has some difficulties with parts of the western secular content of education. Okoro, in UNESCO (1998), argues that in the predominantly Muslim states, particularly in rural communities, parents have avoided enrolling their children at western-style schools. They have done so because of their perceptions that, in these schools, children are diverted from the true path of Islam. There is agreement by all that education has to be relevant, but the definition of relevant differs from state to state. Not all states in Nigeria need to have one common understanding and agreement on what is relevant and, therefore, use an identical curriculum. It is clear that vision and objectives are not, and could not be, fully common. But it is possible, in Nigeria, to have a common definition that establishes a core common curriculum and allows for each state to add locally relevant content to it. This is a good example of the utility of concurrent responsibility arrangements. However, the written or verbal statements of vision and objectives gathered by the consultants indicate that the states and local governments visited in this study do not have objectives related to the further development of the curriculum, within the national framework, to fit their own needs.

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Commitment to education.

5.26 Commitment to education or to any other responsibility of government can be judged by resource allocation. Leaders and managers that are committed to an objective, or a course of action, allocate adequate resources to them. Resources include funds, people, time, and attention. Thus, it is possible to determine to what extent leaders and managers are committed to their own stated objectives by analyzing the budgets that they make, the distribution of staff reporting to them, and the tasks to which the staff are assigned. Judging by these criteria, it may be said that the real commitment of the federal government and the state governments to education has not been as strong as their stated commitment. 5.27 The level of financial commitment was discussed in chapter 3. It is also possible to assess the level of commitment of organizations to given objectives and strategies by investigating how they allocate human resources. It stands to reason that if the SMOEs, the SPEBs, and the LGEAs are committed to increased enrollment, or universal education, while the demand for education is not strong enough to bring all children to the schools, then they will seriously attempt to increase the demand. If they are committed to the provision of good education––the enhancement of quality––then they will seriously attempt to do something about it. In both cases, they will allocate not only financial resources, but also people, to do the job. An analysis was made of staffing patterns at SMOEs, SPEBs, and LGEAs. In each of these organizations, the units that are in charge of increasing enrollment and improving the quality of education are the School Services Departments. They are the only units that do real educational work––that visit the communities and go to the schools. With a few exceptions, the proportion of people working in these units in the organizations that were visited by the consultants seems to be low. In six SPEBs for which the information was available, the percentage of headquarters’ staff in the School Services Department ranged from 8 to 24 with an average of 19 percent. In 12 LGEAs, the percentage ranged from 4 to 34 percent with an average of 18 percent. All the rest are non-educational staff. By comparison, in Personnel Departments in the six SPEBS, the range was between 25 and 57 percent with an average of 38 percent. And in the LGEAs, Personnel Department staff ranged from 14 to 51 percent of total employment with an average of 30 percent. 5.28 Effective development of the education system also requires a healthy staffing of units responsible for policies and strategies. It is clear that there is a need for creative strategic thinking and that one of the most serious problems is the lack of good data and analysis. If the country wants “to face up to the huge challenge of lack of data,” as is stated in the Government’s Education For All report, then there needs to be a commitment, with adequate resources, to the Planning, Research and Statistics (PRS) departments at all levels. However, at the FMOE in 2001, there were only 100 officers in this department, compared with 1,473 in the Personnel Management department. The financial provision for the PRS was only 0.4 percent of the Ministry’s total budget, compared with 3.3 percent for the Personnel Management Department. The understaffing and underbudgeting of this department must be greatly affecting its performance.

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Staffing the system

5.29 There appear to be no norms for the deployment of non-teaching staff in the school education sector and no connection between the sizes of the systems and the sizes of the administrations that run them. The key variables that determine the size of an education system are schools, teachers, and pupils. The numbers of schools to be managed, teachers to be recruited and engaged, and students to be taken care of greatly influence the number of people that are needed to manage, engage, and take care of them. With respect to the SPEBs one additional factor is important: the number of LGEAs that a SPEB has to manage. From the case studies, four measures have been reviewed:

• the number of LGEAs that a SPEB has to manage, • the number of schools that each LGEA runs daily and the total number of schools that

each SPEB manages through the LGEAs, • the number of teachers that each LGEA deploys and the total number of teachers that

each SPEB manages through them, and • the number of pupils in the care of each LGEA and the total number of pupils in the

SPEB system. The size of the administration is represented by those staff who are not engaged in teaching, whether they are located in schools, field offices, or the headquarters of the LGEAs and the SPEBs. This covers the clerical, professional, technical, and managerial staff, as well as a host of unskilled and semiskilled workers, including office helpers, messengers, drivers, handymen, watchmen, and other workers. Four ratios were developed to determine whether the size of the administrative force has any relation to the size of education system. These ratios were applied first to the SPEBs and then to the LGEAs.

5.30 Across the sampled states there are large differences in the sizes of the primary education administrative machinery. The ratio of SPEB administrative staff per LGEA among the 11 states for which there is information ranges from 5.5 to 13.8. The ratio of SPEB and LGEA administrative staff per school ranges from 0.8 to 4.7. The ratio of SPEB and LGEA administrative staff per 100 teachers in seven states ranges from 7.5 to 31.6. Finally, the ratio of SPEB and LGEA administrative staff per 1,000 students in five states ranges from 1.9 to 6.2. There does not seem to be any link between the number of SPEB headquarters and field staff to any of these factors. For example, Katsina SPEB with 34 LGEAs has 118 administrative staff, while Plateau with 17 LGEAs has 234 administrative staff––that is, twice as many staff for half the number of LGEAs. Kano is running a system of 2,270 primary schools with 2.4 administrators per school, while Lagos has 913 schools with twice as many administrators per school. Katsina, with 13,655 teachers in its primary education system has 32 administrators for every 100 teachers, while Kano, Lagos, and Plateau have 28, 26, and 14 administrators for every 100 teachers, respectively. 5.31 The differences are even starker among the LGEAs. The number of administrative staff per school among the 22 LGEAs for which there is information ranges from 0.4 to 9.0, while the number of administrative staff per 100 teachers ranges from 3.0 to 70.4. Finally, the number of administrative staff per 1,000 students in five states ranges from 0.5 to 23.2. Again, there does not seem to be any link between the number of LGEA staff and any of these system factors. For example, Katsina LGEA runs its system of 35 schools with nine administrators per school, while Ibadan North has a system of 64 schools with less than one

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administrator per school. Maiduguri with 1,690 teachers has 5.6 administrative staff for every 100 teachers, while Yenagoa with 768 teachers––and in the same state and under the same SPEB––has five times as many staff with 25.6 administrators per 100 teachers. Differences among LGEAs that are managed by the same SPEBs are large in each set of comparisons. In each of the nine states for which information is available on two LGEAs, there are differences of up to 400 percent in the administrator:school, administrator:teacher, and administrator:student ratios. 5.32 Turning to secondary schooling, the number of administrative staff per school among six SMOEs ranges from 1.0 to 5.4. Across five states the number of administrative staff per 1,000 students ranges from 2.1 to 7.3. There does not seem to be any link between the number of SMOE staff and the size of the education system that they manage. For example, Rivers SMOE runs and manages a system of 546 secondary schools with nine administrators per school. Ebonyi runs and manages a system of 132 schools with 38 administrators per school. Katsina has 66 administrators for every 100 teachers, while Kano has 41. Ebonyi, with roughly as many teachers as Katsina, has almost one-half the number of administrators. 5.33 Among the staff, the most bloated grade levels are 1 to 6, and the most bloated function is personnel. These include unskilled and semiskilled persons. Personnel departments often include all the messengers, cleaners, drivers, and office helpers in these grade levels. The consultants’ reports are full of anecdotal examples of excess.14

Overstaffing and its impact on capacity.

5.34 There are similar ratios of non-teaching staff to teachers in some developed countries. In the United States, for example, the overall ratio is one non-teaching staff for every two teachers and in France and Germany there is one non-teaching staff for every three teachers. But there is a big difference in the roles played by the non-teaching staff in these countries and in Nigeria. Many perform educational roles, such as the provision of psychological services and career guidance, or roles that are closely related to education, such as curriculum development and school-based research. Conversely, in Nigeria, a very high percentage of the non-teaching staff includes unskilled and semiskilled people who do not serve the teachers and the schools in any pedagogical or broader educational capacity. Rather, they serve the administrators and professionals in the head offices and the field offices. They are the typists and low-level clerks, the drivers, messengers, handymen, cleaners, cooks, and guards––all in grade levels 1 to 6. Across seven SMOEs and seven SPEBs, these workers make up 45 and 49 percent, respectively, of the total non-teaching staff. In the LGEAs, too, unskilled and semiskilled staff make up a large percentage of the non-teaching staff. In Lagos State in 1999 the percentage was 34. More recent examples reflect an even higher proportion. In Bali and Zing LGEAs, in Taraba State, these workers make up 47 percent; in Katsina LGEA 54 percent; and in Khana LGEA, in Rivers State, 66 percent. 14 There are stories about SMOEs, SPEBs, and LGEAs that have more drivers than vehicles, and LGEAs that have one operative––a clerk, a messenger, or a workman––for every two or three schools. In one office, where there is only one telephone, there is a telephone operator. In another, there is a Transport Unit “that does not undertake repairs and maintenance, and the drivers are under personnel office, so the unit does not perform any significant function.” In all offices, information circulates through long channels of communication from the heads of departments to their deputies, from the deputies to principal officers, and from them to the officers concerned––all in physical files. It also goes back to files through the same channels. A large force of personnel assistants is employed to move the files. One LGEA, for example, has 10 messengers to move the files among 117 staff. It also has 13 workers/artisans to serve a total of 35 schools and 24 typists/clerks to support its small system.

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5.35 In a system whose only business is teaching, the presence of so many non-teaching staff who do not play an educational role needs questioning. The large number of non-teaching staff may actually diminish capacity. To begin with, it is a drain on resources. The fact that many of these people are in low-paying grades does not mean that the costs of employing them are low. In four states in 2001, the salaries of grade level 1–6 SMOE staff amounted to 36, 20, 13, and 10.6 percent of the total.

The mix and level of skills.

5.36 No comprehensive and precise information is available on the level of knowledge and the mix of skills needed to run and manage the education system in Nigeria efficiently. However, the information gathered by the consultants, both in interviews and in documents, provides a general picture of the current situation. Four key factors contribute to efficiency: the level of skills, clear job definitions, appropriate working methods and procedures, and incentives to perform well. The non-teaching work force is divided into two distinct groups: the minimally educated workers in grade levels 1 to 6, and the educated workers in grade levels 7 to 17. The first group consists mostly of unskilled and semiskilled workers. The second group are mostly skilled technicians, professionals, and managers. A relatively high percentage of the staff in the second group, who are serving in ministries of education, have university degrees. In the six states where information was available about the education background of SMOE non-teaching staff, close to 59 percent possessed a university degree. In the SPEBs, the percentage was 72 percent. Conversely, in the LGEAs, only 13 percent of non-teaching staff have degrees. 5.37 In all, information on the education background is available for a total of 3,098 persons working in the SMOEs, SPEBs, and LGEAs. Of these, 1,149 people (37 percent) have an academic university education. A large percentage of them are professional teachers and several do not have the necessary skills in many of the areas over which they have responsibility. Of these, the most important ones are general management, financial management, and policy analysis. Information technology too is an important area, but the problem in this case is not that the people are in place and simply lack the higher-level skills. Rather, people are not even in place. Nevertheless, the fact that 37 percent of the non-teaching staff in the system have a university education is an important capacity enhancing factor. These people have the necessary foundation and are trainable. It means that the potential for a much better performance is there and that training can make a difference. 5.38 It is important to note, however, that there are large differences among the SMOEs, the SPEBs, and the LGEA, and within each group. The finding that LGEAs have a very low percentage of staff with academic degrees is not surprising, but is worrisome. The daily management of the schools is in the hands of the LGEAs. With only 13 percent of the staff having a university education, LGEAs may not have the critical mass of educated persons to lead and run their education systems. This average also hides large differences among LGEAs. The number of staff with academic degrees among 11 LGEAs varied from 1 to 19. Only one or two staff held academic degrees in 4 of the 11 LGEAs. This presents a great challenge to the local government education systems. Until it is remedied, the scope for giving LGEAs additional powers in the context of decentralization is reduced.

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Conclusions and some implications

5.39 The current division of labor among the three tiers of government and the organizations involved in education needs to be reviewed and, once decisions are reached, clearly articulated. There is no need to do away with the principle and practice of concurrent involvement that calls for the participation of two or three tiers of government, or a number of organizations, in the delivery of education services to the public. But there is a need to do away with the principle of concurrent accountability and the practice of not defining precisely the responsibility of each party in the concurrent arrangement. Accountability must be unitary. The accountability for basic education needs to be placed, clearly and unequivocally, with state governments. The responsibility for different inputs can be placed at different levels and in different organizations, but it needs to be clear and precise. The new UBE Act should provide the basis for this and the opportunity to provide an effective framework for universalizing basic, education. 5.40 The need for a functional review and a clear division of labor refers not only to the overall global responsibility and accountability for education. It refers also to every individual function within the education system. There is a need to determine clearly who is responsible and accountable, for example, for school construction, rehabilitation, and maintenance. The overall responsibility and accountability should be located in a given tier of government, and in a given organization or unit within that tier. Other tiers and organizations can make specific, concurrent contributions and then be held responsible and accountable for their contributions. A clear and fully articulated division of labor is needed in the management of human resources and planning, and in the provision of instructional materials and all other functions. 5.41 To achieve an improved division of labor it would be necessary also to review the purpose and content of many functions, as well as the way they are being carried out currently. A prime example of a function requiring fresh conceptualization is supervision, where it would be beneficial to review and refine the objectives, improve the content, optimize work practices and coordinate a large number of concurrent contributors. 5.42 Once a modified and clear understanding of key functions is achieved, and an improved division of labor among the tiers of government and the organizations in each tier emerges, it will be important to also review the internal division of labor––the organization structure––of each type of organization. This is going to be particularly important for the SMOEs. The Supreme Court’s rulings and the forthcoming UBE Act will require the federal and state governments to make strategic decisions with respect to the roles of UBEC, the SPEBs, and the state ministries. These have created an important window of opportunity to remove the parallel structure and return primary education to the states. The SPEBs need not disappear. As the organizations that currently manage primary education in the states, they have the best capacity. They could be merged with the SMOEs. However, no more than one organization needs to manage the LGEAs in the states. This will require the SMOEs to drastically restructure themselves and improve their capacity. The implications of this situation for capacity building and project design are significant. The capacity of the LGAs also needs to improve because they tend to be extremely weak. The LGAs are too numerous to be addressed by any central agency. Only states will be able to help them––after the states have the capacity to help themselves.

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5.43 Nigeria has the building blocks of a national vision on education. At the national level, all of the important objectives, with the exception of the need to improve system productivity, are recognized and accepted. At state government and LGEA levels, the basic issues are recognized, but many have not yet been elevated to stated objectives nor have they been systematically prioritized. Broad courses of action, or strategies, have also been charted, but often without analyzing the costs and their feasibility. Also, there are differences among the states both in what they wish to achieve and in their ability to achieve it. These differences are not well understood and documented. There is, therefore, a need to rework the national vision, to review the objectives and prioritize them, and to select feasible strategies based on cost and other considerations. There is a need for feasible national objectives, realistic strategies, and minimum targets that will be common to all states. Each of the states needs to build on the national minimum and add to it realistic objectives or targets based on its particular circumstances. Recent efforts by the EFA Secretariat to encourage states to develop plans for basic education are a good beginning. The objective of improving the productivity of the education system in Nigeria could be usefully incorporated into the national vision and placed very high on the priority lists of all the states. 5.44 There are many issues of human resource management that require further attention, particularly at state and local government level. Overall, the entire system of staff allocation could be reviewed to see whether it is possible to improve the balance between those who do the educational work and those who provide the administrative, financial, and logistical support. There appear to be few norms and standards for the deployment of non-teaching staff in the education system and many organizations seem to be bloated. One of the most important measures governments could take, therefore, is to establish such norms and standards and conduct analyses of work, as well as staffing reviews, at the SPEBs, SMOEs, and LGEAs. Based on such reviews, these organizations might be turned into leaner, but more productive, organizations. The analyses and reviews will be particularly important if the decision is taken to merge the SPEBs with the SMOEs. 5.45 It is clear from the information gathered in the case studies that the productivity of the work force managing the basic education system could be improved. Some of the capacity weaknesses stem from general civil service practices that are beyond the control of the education system, but many are within it. Among all the organizations in the education sector the LGEAs are the most deprived in terms of human resources, yet have received the least support so far. A long-term plan to develop their staff, through better recruitment, additional training, and improved physical conditions is imperative if decentralization measures are to be effective. 5.46 This chapter ends with a plea. The limitations of data and policy analysis across the education sector––from simple enrollment data and analyses of student flows to patterns of educational expenditures and unit costs––have been highlighted throughout this report. These are the functions of the Planning, Research, and Statistics departments. The inclusion of physical planning in these departments may have taken the focus away from the many other important aspects of education planning, policymaking. At all levels of government, these departments are in need of strengthening.

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CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION

6.1 The purpose of this report is to help inform policymakers and those who frame, interpret, and implement educational policy in Nigeria at a time when the momentum for expansion and reform of the educational system is growing. The main body of the report is divided into five chapters. The first discussed aspects of socioeconomic and political development that influence the educational system now and will do so in the future. Chapter 2 detailed the coverage and the internal efficiency of the school system using both school-based administrative data and the results of household surveys. The surveys allow for disaggregations of the results across gender, household income, rural-urban location, and geopolitical zone. In chapter 3, an attempt was made to present the sources and mechanisms for financing the educational system across the three levels of government, and the levels and patterns of expenditures across the subsectors. This chapter also included estimates of household expenditures on education and considered some of the issues involved in financing the national policy of Universal Basic Education. Chapter 4 focused on some aspects of the delivery of education in the classroom, and particularly on the allocation, qualifications, and behaviors of teachers. It also considered the learning outcomes of students. In chapter 5, some of the organizational and institutional issues affecting the delivery of school education were discussed. This conclusion summarizes the main findings.

The wider environment

6.2 Each of the three tiers of government has some role in both managing and financing the educational system in Nigeria. The way the forces determining the distribution of powers and resources between the federal and, particularly, state governments play out in the coming few years will have a profound effect on its management, resourcing, and outcomes. 6.3 The energy sector provides between 70 and 90 percent of the income for each tier of government, and in the absence of an effective stabilization system, these incomes are subject to wild swings. This results in an important aspect of uncertainty for the education sector, as it does for all public services. 6.4 While the level of household poverty has increased overall in recent years in Nigeria, its incidence remains closely related to the level of schooling of the household head. For levels of extreme poverty, this pattern is even stronger. The poor, in turn, have low levels of participation in the education system, thus perpetuating this cycle of deprivation. There is much cross-country evidence to suggest that the power of education to improve economic and social conditions within communities is linked to how widespread it is. In many parts of Nigeria that threshold has not been reached. While the demand for schooling has to come from households, governments can influence it by altering the balance between perceived costs and benefits. 6.5 In contrast to most countries in Latin America and East Asia, and now in many of the states in the large South Asian countries, where the size of the school-age group is beginning to decrease, the fertility patterns in Nigeria are anticipated to result in continual increases over the next three decades. This will place more stress on public finances in general. Further,

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the fertility rate is highest in those parts of the country where educational coverage is currently lowest. 6.6 Government revenues in Nigeria have been are healthy compared to those in most countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. Until the recent wage increases that have affected the whole of the public service, a relatively small share of total expenditure has been spent on education. The low level of spending has resulted more from the low priority accorded to the sector, most noticeably by the federal government given its large share of total government revenues, and perhaps from the ways in which the revenues of the Federation Account have been distributed across the levels of government in comparison with their responsibilities, than from a real shortage of public resources.

Attainment, enrollment, and student flows

6.7 The most important feature of educational attainment and current enrollment rates in Nigeria is the very wide diversity across both geographical areas and household income groups. In 1990, the country was divided into 30 states. In six of these, female literacy rates were around 86 percent and above, while in another six they were between 23 and 35 percent. Large regional differences remain. By the end of the decade, 74 percent of all males and 62 percent of all females had ever attended school. In the south, the rates were 90 percent overall and 80 percent for females, while in the north they were 50 percent and 35 percent, respectively. Differences between male and female literacy and schooling rates decline as the average rates increase. Schooling rates in rural areas are well below those in urban areas. Over the past 20 years, the proportions of the population who have completed primary and secondary schooling have been increasing, but with a declining trend. 6.8 Both school-based enrollment data and household survey data have been used to assess current levels of enrollment. School-based data indicate that during the 1990s, expansion occurred in both primary and secondary schooling up to 1994/95 and then declined such that gross enrollment ratios showed little overall increase over the decade as a whole. For primary schooling, the rate was estimated to have been between 75 and 80 percent, and around 35 percent for the junior secondary cycle. The estimated survival rate for the primary cycle and the transition rate to junior secondary followed a similar pattern; the survival rate rising to 75 percent in the mid-1990s and then falling to 65 percent and the transition rate rising to 50 percent, then falling to 38 percent. Within the six-year secondary cycle, the data imply a high survival rate of 73 percent. 6.9 No information on the educational system was collected and analyzed in 1999, 2000, or 2001. Data recently released from the 2002 school census, which also covered these earlier years, imply current gross enrollment rates for all children of 91 percent for primary, 30 percent for junior secondary, and 27 percent for senior secondary; and for females of 80, 27, and 25 percent, respectively. 6.10 There are, however, significant problems with the school-based data, particularly for the earlier years. First, there is evidence of enrollment inflation in several states, as well as year-by-year inconsistencies. Second, enrollments are not differentiated between new pupils and repeaters, which inflates the enrollment ratios but understates completion rates. In addition, the estimates of the size of the school-age population, which are necessary for calculating the enrollment ratios, are based on (debatable) 1991 census figures. For these

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reasons, the results of three sets of large household surveys have also been analyzed. These surveys also allow for more differentiation among population groups. The first data set from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey shows that in 1999, 57 percent of all 6 to 10-year-olds and 67 percent of all 11 to 15-year-olds were in school. In both cases, male participation was higher by 4 percentage points. Of all 16 to 20-year-olds, 42 percent were in school. School participation does not peak nationally until the age of 11 years, at which age 77 percent are, or have been, in school. Across the five regions used in the survey, the rate at this age ranges from 36 percent in the North East to 97 percent in the South East. 6.11 The second household survey used is the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 1999. It gives an overall primary gross enrollment ratio of 87 percent, and 84 percent for females. There are substantial rural-urban differences, and the ratios across the six geo-political zones range from 42 percent in the North West to 130 percent in the South East. Almost as wide is the difference between the 20 percent of households with the lowest income and the 20 percent with the highest--51 and 121 percent, respectively. Across states, enrollment rates in general are greater in higher income states. However, for any given level of state income there are significant variations, implying that other factors are also important. A regression model that examined the impact of gender, rural-urban location, household income, geopolitical zone, mother’s education, and size of the family on school enrollment proved to have a very high explanatory power. 6.12 For each schooling grade there is a very wide spread of age, which reduces the usefulness of gross and net enrollment ratios as measures of coverage. More useful are the intake, and cycle survival, and completion rates. As with the NDHS data, the proportion of children ever enrolled in grade 1 (the intake rate) increases to age 11 years, at which age it is estimated at around 79 percent. Unfortunately, the lack of data on repetition (or reentry) hinders calculation of the other grade specific enrollment ratios directly, but it is estimated that the survival rate to the end of the primary cycle is around 85 percent. The entry and survival rates imply that 67 percent of all children complete this cycle. 6.13 The survey data suggest that 46 percent and 34 percent of children complete the junior and senior secondary cycles, respectively. However, the school-based data imply lower levels of secondary completion, with the transition rates to the first year of the secondary cycle estimated by the Ministry of Education to be only around 40 percent over the past decade, and 34 percent currently. Part of the difference is due to the non-consideration of repetition and reentry in these estimates, but it is clear that more work is required on estimations of grade-specific rates. In turn, this requires new and better data. 6.14 The use of survey data allows for a deeper analysis of levels of access to schooling by different population groups than do the school-based enrollment data. The largest variations are associated with household income differences, which pose a direct challenge to poverty reduction strategies, and with regional differences. The latter indicates that in moving toward the government’s policy of universal basic education, different parts of the country face different challenges. In some states, the challenge is still in access and retention in the primary cycle, while in others the need is for additional places in junior secondary education. In turn, as that level of schooling becomes part of basic schooling, the demand for senior secondary schooling will increase. Again, it will be imperative to gain a much better understanding of the current coverage of secondary education, and of student flows from one grade to another over both the primary and secondary cycles.

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Financing education and the levels and patterns of expenditure

6.15 All three tiers of government finance education. Unfortunately, while aggregate financial data are available for both local governments and the federal government, they are not available for the state governments. Estimates made in this report rest on some very incomplete information from the Central Bank and on case studies undertaken in nine states. 6.16 Overall, the shares of public education expenditures in GDP and total government spending appear to have fallen over time, and at the end of military rule in 1998 they were below those in most other Sub-Saharan African countries. Further, the distribution of this expenditure appeared to have moved toward that level of education--tertiary--most dependent on the federal government. Since 1999, substantial salary increases have raised education’s share of governments’ resources to levels that may be comparable with many other countries, but the growth of “zero allocations” to some local governments after the payment of teacher salaries, continued nonpayment of secondary school teachers in some states, and the ongoing lengthy strike of university teachers suggest that serious issues remain. 6.17 Two questions arise: first, whether the decrease in the measures of educational expenditure has been a result of too small a share of total public financial resources being allocated to those levels of government that have most responsibility for the sector; and second, whether the shift in expenditure shares from primary to tertiary education is connected to the finances of local governments having been the most constrained while those of the federal government have been least constrained. The analysis in this report cannot answer these questions, but it does raise them. 6.18 Another issue is the major difference between local governments across states, and even within states, in the financial burden that results from the way primary education is funded. Essentially, payments for teacher salaries are deducted from each local government’s Federation Account allocation before any remainder is distributed. In local governments that are educationally developed, this deduction is significant, while there is little in the allocation criteria to ensure that the deduction can be met and that these governments are allocated more resources than are the local governments where the deduction is low. The shares of the Federation Account transfers to local governments that are being used for primary schooling range from 25 to 84 percent. 6.19 While the data on educational expenditures are inadequate, the federal government has made a national commitment to universalize basic education and is considering the modalities of financing. In principle, several approaches, and combinations of approaches could result in higher levels of funding for basic education, including the following:

a. The allocations from the Federation Account to the local governments and to states could be increased to allow them to raise expenditures for the program either through agreed-upon deductions at source, new laws obligating state and/or local governments to provide at least a minimum level of service, or voluntarily.

b. The federal government could make specific-purpose grants to state and local

governments.

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The first approach, increased shares of the Federation Account for the state governments, has been recommended by the Fiscal Commission but has not yet become law. The main recommendation is to increase the share of the states from 24 to 33 percent. No recommendations were made to alter the distribution among state or local government. The aggregate increases would allow governments to increase their funding for primary and junior secondary education (as long as overall Federation Account revenues increase) but by no means guarantee it. Brazil is an example of a large, federal country that has transformed the provision of basic education in recent years by combining a mix of larger financial allocations to lower levels of government with changes to the constitution requiring minimum expenditures shares on education. 6.20 The second approach of using specific purpose grants is common in federal countries. However, since entry into primary schooling is virtually universal in the southern zones and in North Central, and since there is no built-in feature of the allocation mechanisms that compensates these states for the costs of high enrollment, such grants would need to be available for the expansion of basic education, rather than primary schooling alone, if they are to be equitable. Such a scheme would not then be focused on the greatest national educational need, but rather on the greatest educational need of each state. An example of a large federal country that over the past nine years has used specific grants to expand primary schooling is India. Grants have been for specific districts within states, and the criterion adopted has been a lower than average level of female literacy. Five-year programs have been funded, but implemented across the states at different times. 6.21 Current thinking within the federal government is to set aside funds to allocate to states for the Universal Basic Education program as a first charge on its own consolidated revenue fund. The use of a first charge, the total amounts involved, the criteria for distribution, and associated requirements of the states need to be carefully assessed. The circumstances in which a first charge on the budget are justifiable are generally regarded as few. It is not clear why the Ministry of Finance has acquiesced in this case. In addition, given the very poor information available on educational expenditures (particularly for junior secondary education) it is perhaps premature to specify a fixed proportion of federal government revenues for this purpose. The draft act does not include criteria to be used for allocating grants across states. The challenge here is to not reward states and local governments that are unwilling to use their own resources for education or to penalize those that allocate relatively large shares of their revenues. Finally, there is the question of what is required of the state governments in terms of plans, outcomes, and reforms in exchange for the grants. Such specific-purpose grants are not uncommon in other federal countries, including grants for universalizing schooling. It may be useful for the federal government to gain a greater understanding of how other countries have approached these issues. 6.22 The information gathered on private expenditures in the state case studies is again very approximate. However, it is sufficient to conclude that the cost of public education for students and households is significant, even when only direct costs for fees and other charges and educational materials are considered. The higher up the system, the greater are the indirect costs, such as for transport and accommodation. In addition, the evidence available on private schooling suggests that almost one-fifth of secondary schools are private and that private primary schools are also widespread in several states. It is tempting to suggest that the relative fall in the share of government education expenditure has been taken up by parents. If this is the case, the impact on equity and access will be an important issue to address in the future.

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6.23 Overall, much more needs to be done to improve information on educational expenditures in Nigeria. The main problem lies in estimating state government expenditures. There is no constitutional requirement for states even to report their budgetary transactions to the federal government, although this situation could change if the Fiscal Responsibilities Act currently being drawn up becomes law. The institution best placed to undertake the systematic collection of education expenditure data is probably the Central Bank in coordination with the policy and research units of the federal Ministry of Education. Without much better information on the unit grade and cycle costs, and their components, it will not be possible to determine the financial implications of universalizing either primary or basic education or of considering the impact, for example, of increasing internal efficiency or of higher levels of cost recovery in post-basic education.

Quality of schooling and student outcomes

6.24 Financial aggregates provide a rough guide to the inputs allocated to education but are only proxy measures. More specific are measures of the inputs themselves, particularly teachers. 6.25 Averaging across all primary schools in the country, the pupil:teacher ratio is very close to the norm of 40:1. However, there are significant variations across states, and in only nine is the ratio between 35 and 45. Moreover, more than half of the states have pupil:teacher ratios above the national norm, and in many of these the enrollment coverage is relatively low. The highest ratios are in states in the North East and North West zones. Even more varied are the ratios across local governments within states. Out of a sample of 12 states, the narrowest range is for Lagos, where the ratio is between 42 and 60, and the widest is Borno, where it is between 14 and 96. Thus, there is a great need across the country to redeploy teachers to achieve greater consistency. 6.26 Females constitute 49 percent of all primary teachers, but the range is between 7 and 78 percent. The share is lowest in those states with the lowest rates of female enrollment. Forty-one percent of primary teachers hold the National Certificate of Education, which is the “required” qualification, but again, there are wide variations across states, with a range of 13 to 73 percent. Much of the recent increase in the proportion of NCE holders has resulted from an expansion of the teacher upgrading courses. However, enrollment in these courses appears to be declining. 6.27 In secondary schools, the average pupil:teacher ratio is 32:1. Again there, are wide variations across states. In five, the ratio is below 25, while the average across states in the North East and North West zones is 37. A higher proportion of teachers are males than is the case in primary schooling, though females are a majority in six states. Overall, secondary teachers appear to be reasonably well qualified in terms of the national requirements with, 58 percent being university graduates and 40 percent NCE holders. For senior secondary grades, however, and in subjects such as English language and mathematics, there are shortages of trained graduates. 6.28 There is already a need for more primary school specialists (generalist teachers who can teach across all the core subjects of the curriculum at any primary grade level), and the demand will increase, at least in states where enrollments are still very low and pupil:teacher

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ratios are above the norm. Insufficient numbers of secondary school graduates are entering the colleges of education. To meet current and future demands, proactive programs, along the lines of the innovative Pivotal Teacher Training Program with its mix of distance education modes and school experience, are needed to encourage more students to enter primary teacher education. This kind of model has several advantages: it puts teachers into classrooms more quickly, it makes teacher training more practical, its full impact on recurrent budgets is delayed until full accreditation is obtained some years down the track, and, because the initial training program is subsidized, it provides an incentive for student teachers to prepare specifically for primary school teaching. The lack of opportunity for continuous professional development that has been the lot of most teachers is beginning to be addressed through piloting of school-based teacher support programs. These models could be developed more widely and linked to schools’ own goals for improvement. 6.29 Recent action research studies of teacher behavior in classrooms have identified some areas for improvement. They include the use of instructional time, issues surrounding implementation of the language policy in the context of a lack of appropriate materials in the classrooms, the organization of learning groups, and the use of diagnostic skills in monitoring pupils’ progress. Overall, the observations point to the need for much higher levels of in-service training. 6.30 Learning achievement tests undertaken by primary grade 4 pupils in 1996 and grade 5 pupils in 2002 show poor results, particularly in language. Overall, achievements are higher in the private schools than in government schools and in urban schools than in rural schools. A comparison of the 1996 results with similar ones for 21 other African countries found that Nigeria had the lowest scores. In the senior secondary examination, the effective pass rates between 1998 and 2001 have averaged below 40 percent in all major subjects apart from Nigerian languages, and have been are particularly low in English language (22 percent), geography (13 percent), and chemistry (17 percent).

Organizational and institutional aspects

6.31 Finance, teachers, non-teaching staff, and all other inputs into the education system need to be well managed. Visions need to be articulated, targets set, strategies evolved, incentives devised, inputs strengthened and coordinated, and work programs laid out. 6.32 Nigeria has the building blocks of a national vision on education. At the national level, all of the important objectives, with the exception of the need to improve system productivity, are recognized and accepted. At state and local levels, the basic issues are recognized, although many have not yet been elevated to stated objectives, nor have they been systematically prioritized. Broad courses of action, or strategies, also have been charted, though often their costs and feasibility have not been analyzed. In addition, there are differences among the states both in what they wish to achieve and in their ability to achieve it. These differences are not well understood or documented. There is, therefore, a need to rework the national vision, to review the objectives and prioritize them, and to select feasible strategies based on cost and other considerations. There is a need for feasible national objectives, realistic strategies, and minimum targets that will be common to all states. Each of the states could then build on and add to the national “minimum.” Recent efforts by the Education for All Secretariat to encourage states to develop plans for basic education are a good beginning.

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6.33 The current division of labor among the three tiers of government and the organizations involved in education in Nigeria needs to be reviewed, particularly with regard to basic education, and, once decisions are reached, clearly articulated. The Universal Basic Education Act currently being framed provides further guidelines for this. There is no need to do away with the principle and practice of concurrent involvement that calls for the participation of two or three tiers of government, or a number of organizations, in the delivery of education services to the public. But there is a need to reduce concurrent accountability and to define precisely the responsibility of each party in the concurrent arrangement. Accountability must be unitary. Once clarity has been brought to the primary system, it may be appropriate for the federal and state governments to develop a holistic plan for tertiary education in the country. 6.34 The need for a clear division of labor refers not only to the overall, “global” responsibility and accountability for education. It refers also to each and every individual function within the education system. There is a need to determine clearly who is responsible and accountable, for example, for school construction, rehabilitation, and maintenance. The overall responsibility and accountability should be located in a given tier of government, and in a given organization/unit within that tier. Other tiers and organizations can make contributions and then be held responsible and accountable for them. A clear, fully articulated division of labor is needed, likewise, for the management of human resources, planning, the provision of instructional materials, and all other functions. Equally necessary is a review of the purpose and content of many functions. A prime example would be supervision. 6.35 The Supreme Court’s ruling in 2002 with respect to the responsibility for primary education and the Universal Basic Education Act currently being framed will require the federal and state governments to make strategic decisions with respect to the roles of the (federal) Universal Basic Education Commission and the state boards. The boards are not likely to disappear, and as the organizations that currently manage primary education in the states, they have the best capacity and could be merged with the state ministries. This will require the ministries to drastically restructure themselves and improve their capacity. In addition, among all the organizations in the education sector, the local government education authorities are the most deprived in terms of human resources, yet have received the least support so far. A long-term plan to develop their staff through better recruitment, more training, and an improvement in their physical conditions is imperative if decentralization measures are to be effective. 6.36 It is clear from information gathered in the case studies of state and local governments in eight states that the productivity of the workforce managing the basic education system could be improved. Overall, the entire system of staff allocation could be reviewed to see whether it is possible to improve the balance between those who do the educational work and those who provide the administrative, financial, and logistical support. There appear to be few norms and standards for the deployment of non-teaching staff in the education system, and many ministries seem to be bloated.

Data and policy development

6.37 Finally, there is an urgent need for improved data and future policy development. Poor data and information has limited the scope of this report. More important, it limits the

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ability of policymakers in the federal and state governments to undertake their own analyses of the dynamics of the educational system and gauge the implications of new interventions. The two central areas where information is lacking are (a) accurate estimates of enrollments in all public and private schools and the patterns of student flows within and between cycles, and (b) educational finance. The first of these has been addressed somewhat through the school census held early in 2002, the results of which are just now becoming available. Some glitches remain, but the raw information appears to be more accurate than previous series. The allocation of resources (human and financial) to adequately analyze these data and to plan for the census to be maintained and further improved is essential if the efforts that have already been made are not to be wasted. The second area has not been addressed, and the immediate requirement is to access information on the expenditures made by state governments through both their ministries of education and their parastatal institutions. It is to be hoped that some improvement will come through the proposed Fiscal Accountability Act. Following that, a program of work would be required that would focus on measuring both the efficiency and the equity of the public resources across the education sector. 6.38 There are wide diversities in the level of educational development across the geopolitical zones and states, and average measures often have little meaning. In fact, the use of averages may have a negative effect on policy considerations. In some instances, it has been possible to present these diversities in some detail in this report, but in others it has not. The report, however, does point to issues and types of analyses that individual state governments could undertake as they intensify their control of primary and secondary education and face the immediate challenges of universalizing primary and basic education. The raw state-specific results of the 2002 school census that are now becoming available will be helpful to the states in this process, but a comprehensive program to analyze them is required, together with initiatives to aggregate and analyze their education expenditures.

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