NIP 22 Nov 06 Public Version

8/8/2019 NIP 22 Nov 06 Public Version

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Open Source Intelligence

(OSINT): The Way Ahead

Presented to the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI)

Robert David Steele (Vivas)

22 November 2006


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Plan of the Brief

Global RealityContext for Intelligence

Strategic Failure of Secret Intelligence

Status of OSINT Today What You Can Do Now to Improve

Intelligence & Information Operations (I2O)

Where We Need to Go as a Nation GO NAVY: 450-Ship Navy, Peace from the Sea


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GLOBAL REALITY


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Source: PIOOM (NL), data withpermission 2002 A. Jongman

Conflict Facts for 2002

23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC


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Ethnic Fault Lines 2000

18 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today

Source: Dr. Greg Stanton


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Water & War

Source: The State of the WorldAtlas (1997), chart 54, 53

Hyper-Arid

Sub-Humid

Arid

Semi-Arid

Water

Pollution

1

2

34

5

6


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Global Threats to Local Survival

*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide),

Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002

Complex Emergencies

32 Countries

Refugees/Displaced

66 Countries

Food Security

33 Countries

Child Soldiers

41 Countries

Modern Plagues*

59 Countries & Rising

Water Scarcity &

Contaminated

Water**Ethnic Conflict 18

Genocides Today**

Resource Wars, Energy

Waste & Pollution**

Corruption Common

80 Countries

Censorship Very High

62 Countries


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10%

50%

25%

15%

State vs State

State vs Nation

Inter-Ethnic Tribal

Gang Wars, Genocide,

Decolonization

Taxpayer Dollars Focused

on Just 10% of the Threat


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Presidential Trade-Offs$100 million will buy:

1 Small Navy Platform or Ground Unit or

1,000 Potential George Kennans or

10,000 Peace Corps Volunteers or

1,000,000 cubic meters of desalinated water or

One day of war over water (or oil)


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Were in a Six-Front 100-Year War of Our Own Making.

America is losing/has lost the moral high ground.


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Policy/Threats

Poverty

Disease

Ecology

State War

Civil War

Genocide

Oth. Atroc.

Proliferation

Terrorism

Trans. Crime

Debt

Econom

y

Education

Energy

Diplom

acy

Family

Immigration

Justic

e

Revenue

Security

Soc.S

ec.

Water

For each Al Qaeda $1,US Spends $500K.

Badly. They can dothis forever. AnyQuestions?

DoDFocus

GWOT


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Policy/Threats

Poverty

Disease

Ecology

State War

Civil War

Genocide

Oth. Atroc.

Proliferation

Terrorism

Trans. Crime

Debt

Econom

y

Education

Energy

Diplom

acy

Family

Immigration

Justic

e

Revenue

Security

Soc.S

ec.

Water

Big Dogs

Brazil

China

India

Indonesia

Iran

Russia

Venezuela

Wild Cards

In GrandStrategy terms,

Al Qaedashrinks to zip.


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Policy/Threats

Poverty

Disease

Ecology

State War

Civil War

Genocide

Oth. Atroc.

Proliferation

Terrorism

Trans. Crime

Debt

Econom

y

Education

Energy

Diplom

acy

Family

Immigration

Justic

e

Revenue

Security

Soc.S

ec.

Water

Can't Fix Stupid!

Big Dogs

Brazil

China

India

Indonesia

Iran

Russia

Venezuela

Wild Cards

From left : Larry the Cable Guy ,Bill Engvall , Jeff Foxworthy and

Ron White.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_the_Cable_Guyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Engvallhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Foxworthyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Whitehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Whitehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Foxworthyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Engvallhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_the_Cable_Guy


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STRATEGIC FAILURE OF

NATIONAL SECRETINTELLIGENCE


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Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished

English

Language

Foreign

Languages*

*31 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.

NSA FBIS UN/STATE

Cascading Deficiencies:

1) Dont even try to access most information

2) Cant process hard-copy into digital

3) Cant translate most of what we collect

CIA/DO

NRO

Global Intelligence Failure

Breakdown in Collection and Understanding


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50% Less Costly

More

Satisf

ying

SIGINT

OSINT

0% 50%

HUMINT

IMINT

MASINT

STATE

Does Not Exist

Global Processing Failure

Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination


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Threat #1: Poverty 95%Threat #2: Infectious Disease 99%Threat #3: Environmental Degradation 90%

Threat #4: Inter-State Conflict 75%Threat #5 Civil War 80%Threat #6: Genocide 95%Threat #7: Other Large-Scale Atrocities 95%Threat #8: Nuclear, bio-chemical weapons 75%Threat #9: Terrorism 80%Threat #10: Transnational organized crime 80%

Average Importance of OSINT 86%

Threats vs. Sources


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Policy/Threats

Poverty

Disease

Ecology

State War

Civil War

Genocide

Oth. Atroc.

Proliferation

Terrorism

Trans. Crime

Debt

Econom

y

Education

Energy

Diplom

acy

Family

Immigration

Justic

e

Revenue

Security

Soc.S

ec.

Water

Big Dogs

Brazil

China

India

Indonesia

Iran

Russia

Venezuela

Wild Cards


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HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT

ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS

OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION

OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE

5% of cost 80% of value

95% of cost 20% of value

Secret Intelligence Misses 80% of the Relevant Information!


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Baseball AnalogyHarnessing the Power of the Crowd

OSINT

HUMINT

SIGINT

IMINT

MASINT


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Policy-Intelligence Failure:

Unbalanced Instruments of PowerToo much of: Military heavy metal

Secret satellitesNot enough of: Humans on ground

Human expert analysis

Technical processing

State & local intelligence

Public health, water, etc.

0

50

100

150200

250

300

350

USA Allies Russia China Rogues

Military Diplomacy Home Fron

The real budget is the real policy.

Citizens must vote and provide

constant oversight if the taxpayer

dollar is to be spent wisely.


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Policy-Intelligence Failure

Public is Neither Engaged Nor InformedWhy This Matters Homeland security--A Nations

best defense is an educatedcitizenry. (Thomas Jefferson)

Prosperity--the financial value ofethics, trust, strategic culture

Global security--the long-termvalue of public intelligence tomulti-cultural policy initiatives,the best pre-emption is moral.

World War III Players

Bacteria

Nations

GangsCitizens

Inc.


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STATUS OFOSINT TODAY


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OSINT Matters I

"By `intelligence' we meanevery sort of informationabout the enemy and hiscountry--the basis, inshort, of our own plans

and operations."

Clausewitz, On War, 1832

Emphasis Added.

You get no points for just knowingsecrets when they are less than 2%

of what you need to know.


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Whats on the other side of the hill?

All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavor to

find out what you dont know by what you do; thats what I called guessing

what was at the other side of the hill.

Duke of Wellington

quoted in John Wilson Croker, The Croker Papers (1884)

OSINT Matters II


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Strategic

Planning

Operational

Coordination

TacticalEmployment

Acquisition

Design

History

Context

Current Awareness

Key Personalities/Motivators

Imagery & Image Maps

Translation Support

Strategic Generalizations

Critical Technologies

OSINT Matters III

This is what got General

Schoomakers attention

in 1997.


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Brief History of OSINT

Diplomats diminished

FBIS in WW II

FBIS going, going.

FRD on the margin

ER&A cut, cut, cut

We do secrets

On your own time Use the Internet


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USMC Intelligence Experience

1988 MCIC start-up

$10M on DODIIS

Learned 90% raw info Not secret

Not online

Not in English

Not available from DC No DoD focal point

No knowledge base


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US IC Response

HPSCI Forced the Issue in 1992

FBIS claimed the turf andpromptly blew it

COSPO created, DIA led &screwed it up

Markowitz tried hard, Dempseyblocked NFIP line for years

Tenet June 1997 refused GlobalCoverage recommendation of$1.5M ($10M/year per 150 lowertier targets)

2005 DNI appoints ADDNI/OS,never heard from again.


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Meanwhile.

1994 Steve Emerson got it righton jihad within the US

1996 Yossef Bodansky got itright on BLs declaration of war

1997 Pete Schoomakerestablished SOCOM OSINT

2005 Col Vince Stewart USMCdoes super job for USDI, they

offer SOCOM ExecutiveAgency, declined


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DoD OSINT Today

OSD POC Back to FMF

DIA lip-service to OSINT

No DoD Doctrine (Army contractor wrote garbage)

No DoD Program, Budget, or TO&E Varied parties spending around $25M in complete

disorder & mostly on data mining

SOCOM & CENTCOM good but limited funding

STRATCOM wasting $65M on 36 US on-site butts PACOM destroyed VIC, SOUTHCOM 2 bodies

FSMO tries when not diverting funds to MILCON


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Data Mining is notData

Capture Spending $250M on

data mining, and lessthan $10M on opensource data capture,is not cool.

80% of what we needis not available toFBIS or anyone elseas we are now unled,un- funded, anduntrained.

Forget about the letter, which

requires reading the language,

Ive got the stampso pretty!


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Meanwhile.

2003 SecDef quotesBin Laden trainingmanual as saying Al

Qaeda gets 80% of itsintelligence fromOSINT but

Ramps up OPSEC(good) but does notestablish DoD OSINT


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ADDNI/OS & OSS CEO

ADDNI/OS View of OSINT OSS CEO View of OSINT

OSINT

Humint Sigint

MasintImint

FI

Hu

min

t

Sigin

t

Imin

t

Masin

t

Osint

OSINT is both a supporting discipline,

and an all-source discipline.


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WHAT YOU CAN DO

TO IMPROVE ONYOUR OWN


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WWW.OSS.NET

www.oss.net/BASIC

See especially the Context & Practice sections

See the briefings, especially New Rules

www.oss.net/LIBRARY

See especially the Training section (this is Wordtable, can sort by columns, search)

www.oss.net/HISTORY Believe it or not, CIA & DIA and the Services

have fought me on this since 1988.
http://www.oss.net/BASIChttp://www.oss.net/LIBRARYhttp://www.oss.net/HISTORYhttp://www.oss.net/HISTORYhttp://www.oss.net/LIBRARYhttp://www.oss.net/BASIC


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New Craft of Intelligence

I

Lessons of History

II

Global Coverage

III

National Intelligence

IV

Spies & Secrecy

China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.

Cost-Sharing with Others--

Shared Early Warning

Narrowly focused!

Harness distributed

intelligence of Nation


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Focus of Global Effort

Strategic Forecasting

10% Need, 40% Cost

Primary Research &

Experts on Demand

20% Need, 30% Cost

Help Desk (Tell Me

MoreRight Now)30% Need, 20% Cost

Daily/Weekly Reports

40% Need, 10% Cost

Shared Among Tribes

Partial Sharing

Tribal

Secret

Top

Secret


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OPG

VPN

Weekly Review

Expert Forum

Distance

Learning

Virtual

Library

Shared

Calendar

Virtual

Budget

Shared

24/7 Plot

Shared

Rolodex

Creating the World Brain:

Web-Based Virtual Intelligence Teams


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Internet CompetencyNow a serious source

All-source means allsources--the Internet isnow a major source

Search engines vary.

Find images and maps.

Find experts and groups.

Limit to 1-hour efforts.

Need an Internet specialiston call.


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Commercial Online Competency

100X more important than Internet Google rapidly

displacing, but still

need foreignlanguage monitoringthat OSC/FBISsimply will not do for

the military. Need a specialist.CIA 'Probably' Helps Italian Subversive Groups.

Xinhua News Agency, 03/20/2001,

268 words.

Italian intelligence chief puts Al-Qa'idah's assets at 5bn dollars

BBC Monitoring, 05/16/2002, 142

words.


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Gray Literature Competency

Limited edition, must know to ask Pre-prints, technical

reports, company

telephone books,university yearbooks,niche references.

Generally requires

human access andspecial knowledge ofavailability.

Unique and useful.


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Primary Research Competency

Knowing Who Knows, Direct Contacts

Citation Analysis is

key to finding topexperts acrossdifferent nations.

Using the telephone

(and the Internet) toreach top expertsyields powerfulresults.


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Citation Analysis ExampleDIALOG, SSCI, $1000 = Savings

DIALOG access toSocial Science CitationIndex

Use OSS methodology

$500 in access charges+ $500 in analyst time =list of top experts on anycountry or topic

Then you call them...


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Analytic Toolkit Competency

Software can be a curse or a help Digital conversion,

storage, visualization,and retrieval tools

Geospatial tools

Structured analysisand detection tools

Multi-mediapublication andpresentation tools


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Geospatial Competency

Maps & images make a difference Commercial imagery cheaper

than ignorance

Russian military maps ofThird World vital

Post-processing support fromprivate sector

Desktop tools for plottinginformation in time & spacecontextSuch as plotting ships on

Google Earth.


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Analytic TradecraftEmerging appreciation for its value

CIA University trying

Moving away fromcutting and pasting

Moving away fromhard-copy files

Focus on learning how

to think, and how tostructure digital data

Still not there.


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Creating an OSINT Cell

Central discovery, distributed exploitation

Six people can

leverage globalOSINT for an entireMinistry or Service orCommand

This eliminates needfor duplicate opensource infrastructure

Also saves money

Senior All-Source

Collection Manager

Internet

Specialist

Commercial

Online Expert

PrimaryResearch

ExternalContracts

All-Source Analyst/

Presentation Manager


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INTELLIGENCE &

INFORMATIONOPERATIONS (I2O)


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7th Generation WarfareFirst Generation Low Tech Attrition

Second Generation Relatively Higher Tech Attrition and/orManeuver

Third Generation From Hard to SoftPower

From Force to BrainPower

Fourth Generation Non-State Threats Asymmetry

Fifth Generation Information and

High-Tech

Knowledge &Technology &Organization

Sixth Generation Military-TechnicalRevolution

Bio-Informational

Seventh Generation Belief Systems &Global Accountability

All Information, AllLanguages, All the

Time


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GRAND STRATEGY:Understanding Ways, Means,and Ends


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Reference

www.oss.net

IOP 07 Portal Page

Link dated 17 Nov 06: I2O Draft 3.4

Includes table for monitoring & predictingrevolution, levels of analysis figure
http://www.oss.net/http://www.oss.net/


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WHERE WE NEED

TO GO AS ANATION


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New Strategy: 1 + iii:

Need better balance

45% 20% 20% 15%

248B vs. 550B 110B vs 20B 110B vs. 20B 82B vs. 36B

CINCWAR CINCSOLIC CINCPEACE CINCHOME

Strategic NBC Small Wars State/USIA Intelligence

Big War(s) Constabulary Peace Corps Border Patrol

Ground Truth Economic Aid Port Security

1 ii i

Electronic

Reserve

Reserve Environment

Public HealthPeace Navy


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Modern Presidential Leadership

PresidentCongress Judiciary

Chief of Staff

Director-General for

National Policy

Director-General for

Global Strategy

Director-General forNational Intelligence

Director-General forNational Research

Director of Classified

Intelligence (DCI)

Chairman, National

Intelligence Council

Director, Global

Knowledge Foundation


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Modern Strategic Governance

Director General

Global Strategy

Deputy DirectorGlobal Strategy

Deputy DirectorResponse Management

Associate Directors

Strategic Council Leadership Retreats Global Reserve Special Projects

Associate Directors

Response Center Public Liaison Civilian Reserve Non-State Actors


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GO NAVY


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6 Slides -- Global, local, OOTW -- Navy Message:Must be able to put force on target within 24, 48 hours;must do sustained littoral ops in multiple languages;

and instream Humanitarian Assistance.

450-Ship Navy


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Global Reach, Local Service

Must be able to put air-ground team anywhere

24 hrs: Platoon/Cobra

48 hrs: Company/Harrier

72 hrs: BLT Swarm 7 days: MAGTF (-)

Increase Littoralcapabilities to 31%

Create HumanitarianAssistance Fleet


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Big Decks

Fence subs at 15ballistic & 50 attack

Fence carriers at 12

but dedicate four tolittoral/VSTOL ops

Restore 2 battleships

for low-cost navalgunfire support andbig stick diplomacy


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Heavy Duty Platforms

Protect cruisers/ destroyers. Create 25 new Expediters, air-

capable SPRUANCEs.

Increase WHIDBEY ISLAND

class LHDs Create 25 three-ship squadrons

of brown water fire, air, troopinterdiction platforms


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Mine Warfare & Port Security

Distribute helo-borne anti-mine capabilities

throughout the fleet Devise comprehensivenew port security conceptswith USCG

Consider Port of Houstonas a CIO-Intel testbed forglobal information aspects.


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Humanitarian Fleet

16 roll-on, roll-off bulkcarriers with integratedengineering, police, and

hospital spaces--halfready to do instreamops only

Protect two largehospital ships, createfive small hospital ships


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Global Reach, Local Service

Blue Water Carrier

Brown Water Carrier

Big Amphibs

Small Amphibs

Patrol Squadron

Humanitarian Fleet


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WWW.OSS.NET

[email protected]

703.266.6393

Will speak for sushi. Tell others.
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

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