Niveshak June 2013

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THE INVESTOR VOLUME 6 ISSUE 6 June 2013

Why INDIAN BANKS SHOULD FOLLOW THEISLAMIC BANKING LAW?, PG. 22

VOLATILITY INDEX(VIX),PG. 18


2/28Disclaimer: The views presented are the opinion/work of the individual author and The Finance Club of IIM Shillong bearsno responsibility whatsoever.

F R O M E D I T O R S D E S K

NiveshakVolume VI

ISSUE VI

June 2013

Faculty Mentor

Prof. P. Saravanan

Editorial Team

Anchal Khaneja

Anushri Bansal

Gourav Sachdeva

Himanshu Arora

Ishaan Mohan

Kaushal Kumar Ghai

Kritika Nema

Neha Misra

Nirmit Mohan

All images, design and artwork

are copyright of

IIM Shillong Finance Club

Finance Club

Indian Institute of Management

Shillong

www.iims-niveshak.com

THE TEAM

Dear Niveshaks,

The times have been torid to say the least. Even aer desperate measures bythe RBI to defend the Indian Curency, the rpee hit an all-time low of 60.72

on June 26, 2013. Whats worse is that many exers feel that the worst is still

to come. Riding on the rpee depreciation for the entire month, FIIs pulled

out a massive INR 9000 crore om the stock market. The number in the debt

market stands at a whopping INR 27850.2 crore.

The stock markets have been equally volatile throughout the month, declining

om close to 20,000 points to 18,500 and again breaching the 19,000 level

just before the month end. The Aricle of the Month for the June issue closely

follows the tend and ties to exlain the Volatilit Index in and out.The cover Stor for the Month of June analyses the Real Estate Reglation &

Development Bill 2013, an all imporant step nally taken by the Minist of

Housing & Urban Pover Alleviation. Buying your own house might nally

become a realit with the proper implementation of the Bill.

Niveshak also brings some more good reads for you in this issue The Fin-

Sight of the issue ties to exlore the pros and cons of the highly debatable

Islamic banking Rules, more so when the Worlds Banking Sector is going

through the toughest of times. FinGyaan of the issue talks of a new curency

for the whole world, BitCoin. Sit back and read how it can bring the world

on a common platfor.

Then there is the stor of 1973, which brought the entire globe to a stop when

the Arab Nations withheld the supply of Oil to the Wester counties. Get to

know how the Oil Crisis of 1973 aected the lives of millions of people and

surrisingly, the positives it gave to our world. The issue also exlains the

concept of Golden Cross through our much cherished Classroom Section.

To end this brief note, its imporant that we thank you, our readers, for

your constant suppor and appreciation. Thank you! It is your endless

encouragement and enthusiasm that keeps us going. Kindly keep pouring in

your suggestions and feedback to [email protected] and as always,

Stay Invested!

Team Niveshak


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C O N T E N T S

Niveshak Times04The Month That Was

Article of the month08 Volatility Index (VIX)

Cover Story

11 Real Estate Regulation &Development Bill 2013

FinGyaan16 BitCoin: A New Currency

for World

Finistory18 The Arab Oil Embargo

Finsight22 Why should Banks in Indiafollow the Islamic Banking Law?

CLASSROOM24 Golden Cross


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Mahindra Finance pulls out of the race

for a banking License

Mahindra Finance has decided not to apply fora banking licence in lieu of the regulations setby Reserve Bank of India which may have anadverse economic and operational impact onMahindras non-banking finance business.

Mahindra Finance will be the first largeconglomerate to pull out. However, with the

RBI norms prescribing exiting financial servicebusinesses to be transferred into a new bankwithout any flexibility for an NBFC and a bankto coexist for a reasonable period, a numberof large NBFCs are expected to follow suit.Mahindra Finance also stressed that the currentset of guidelines will have an adverse economicand operational impact on the business of largerNBFCs.

Mahindra Finance was considered a topcontender for the licence, given its presence inthe rural and semi-urban areas. The last datefor filing an application is July 1. RBI stipulationsalso mandate that from inception, NBFCs willhave to comply with regulatory requirementof mandatory 23% statutory liquidity ratio,4% cash reserve ratio and priority sector loanrequirement of 40%.

OVL-OIL to buy Videocon stake in

Mozambique eld for $2.5 bn

This will the third acquisition in 10 months,

state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC)and Oil India Ltd (OIL) will be acquiring VideoconIndustries 10 per cent stake in a giant Mozambiquegas field for about USD 2.5 billion. The jointventure between ONGC and OIL will claim stake to

Mozambiquesoffshore Area 1which may holdas much as 65trillion cubic

feet (Tcf) ofgas resources.ONGC Videsh Limited(OVL) is the overseas armof state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC)and will hold 60 per cent stake in the joint

venture while OIL will have the remaining 40per cent. OVL and OIL have signed a definitiveagreement with Videocon Mauritius Energy Ltd toacquire 100 per cent of (its) shares in VideoconMozambique Rovuma 1 Ltd for USD 2475 million.

Merck & Co wins injunction against

Indian rm over diabetes drugs

MSD, a unit of US drugmaker Merck & Co, saidit has won an injunction against Indias ApricaPharmaceuticals and a source said this willstop Aprica launching generic versions of twodiabetes drugs in India.

Global pharmaceutical firms have had a seriesof patent disputes with Indian makers of genericdrugs and several recent Indian rulings havegone against the international giants.

MSD holds an Indian patent on sitagliptin, achemical compound sold under the Januvia andJanumet brands used to treat type-2 diabetes.Merck sued another Indian company, GlenmarkPharmaceuticals, over the two brands in April,saying Glenmark had directly infringed MSDs

intellectual property. The same court is due tohear that case on July 15.

Nissan to recall over 22,000 Micra, Sunny

cars in India

Japanese car giant Nissan will recall 22,188 unitsof its small car Micra and sedan Sunny in Indiadue to faulty braking system, as part of a globalexercise to rectify the problem.

The companys wholly-owned subsidiary NissanMotor India will recall the vehicles, which were

produced between June 2012 and March 2013.Nissan is conducting a voluntary recall campaignon approximately 67,089 Micra and Sunnyvehicles in Africa, Asia, Europe, India (22,188),Latin America and Caribbean, and Middle East

The Niveshak Times


IIM ShillongTeam NIVESHAK

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markets to replace the master brake cylinder as

told by a Nissan Motor India spokesperson. She,however, said the company has not receivedany complaint in India so far and this is avoluntary recall. Elaborating on the problem,when operating the braking system under lightbraking force, the customer may experiencelonger brake pedal travel. In extreme cases,reduced braking performance may occur and asa result the braking distances required to stopthe vehicle will increase.

Tech Mahindra completes merger with

Satyam

Tech Mahindra completed its merger withSatyam and became the fifth largest Indian ITservice provider. The revenues of the mergedentity would be $2.7 billion with a team of 84,000professionals servicing 540 customers across 46countries and will be called Tech Mahindra.

This purchase was done in a Government backedauction in 2009 after Satyam admitted to one ofIndias biggest accounting frauds. Tech Mahindra

has been fulfilling statutory & legal issues forthe past four years. It owns approximately 43percent of Satyam. It is offering one share initself for every 8.5 shares of Satyam to absorbthe company. This news lifted Tech Mahindrasshares as they went up 1.3 percent at INR1,014.60 on NSE. The same was applicable toSatyams shares which went up 1.3 percent atINR 116.30.

Bharti Airtel penalized INR 650 crores

Department of Telecommunications hasapproved a penalty of INR 650 crores on BhartiAirtel for violating roaming norms in 13 serviceareas between 2003 and 2005. DoT has allegedBharti Airtel that it was offering SLD (SubscriberLocal Dialing) services in 2003. It continued toroute national and international calls as localcalls under a scheme till 2005 despite beingtold to stop it in 2003. This caused losses to the

government exchequerand state-run Bharat

Sanchar Nigam Ltd(BSNL). The release ofthis news made the

companys shares go down 2% intra-day onthe Bombay Stock Exchange, before recovering

to close up 0.5% to Rs. 316. A fine of INR 350

crore was earlier imposed upon the companyfor offering 3G services in seven circles where itdid not have licenses. The company had enteredinto inter-circle roaming agreements with IdeaCellular and Vodafone and was offering serviceswhere they had won spectrum for 3G services.

RBI tightens gold lending norms for

RRBs

Restrictions on gold lending by Regional RuralBanks has been tightened by the RBI. Thesecurbs also extend to units of gold exchangetraded funds (ETF) and units of gold mutualfunds to tame demand for gold and rein-in arecord high current account gap. The RRBs wouldnot be allowed to lend against gold jewellery,gold ornaments and gold coins weighing above50 grams, a norm already applicable for all otherbanks. Advances may be granted by RRBs againstspecially minted gold coins sold by banks whichmay not be in the nature of bullion or primarygold. But it pointed out that there is a risk

of some coins weighing much more, therebycircumventing the Reserve Banks guidelinesregarding restriction on grant of advance againstgold bullion. So, the RRBs should make sureensure that the weight of the coin(s) should notexceed 50 grams per customer.

The Niveshak Times

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FINANCE CLUB, INDIAN INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT SHILLONG


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MARKET CAP (IN RS. CR)BSE Mkt. Cap 6,253,750

Index Full Mkt. Cap 3,081,040

Index Free Float Mkt. Cap 1,610,860

CURRENCY RATESINR / 1 USD 60.58

INR / 1 Euro 78.94

INR / 100 Jap. YEN 61.79

INR / 1 Pound Sterling 92.92

POLICY RATESBank Rate 8.25%

Repo rate 7.25%

Reverse Repo rate 6.25%

Market Snapshot


RESERVE RATIOSCRR 4.00%

SLR 23%

LENDING / DEPOSIT RATESBase rate 9.70%-10.25%

Deposit rate 7.50% - 9.00%

Source: www.bseindia.comwww.nseindia.com

Source: www.bseindia.com

Source: www.bseindia.com21st Decemebr to 24th January 2013

Data as on 29th January 2013

MarketSnapshot

CURRENCY MOVEMENTS


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MarketSnapshot

BSEIndex Open Close % changeSensex 20160.82 18875.95 -6.37%

MIDCAP 6498.66 5832.58 -10.25%

Smallcap 6068.62 5567.25 -8.26%

AUTO 11076.54 10392.42 -6.18%

BANKEX 14799.81 12849.04 -13.18%

CD 7744.4 6123.79 -20.93%

CG 9679.51 8758.19 -9.52%

FMCG 6757.8 6434.29 -4.79%

Healthcare 8805.66 8647.39 -1.80%

IT 6061.33 6208.7 2.43%

METAL 8864.14 7405.51 -16.46%

OIL&GAS 8950.96 8610.65 -3.80%

POWER 1790.24 1557.84 -12.98%

PSU 6814.47 5953.47 -12.63%

REALTY 1832.18 1466.46 -19.96%

TECK 3638.75 3636 -0.08%


Market Snapshot

% CHANGE


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The volatility index- more commonly knownas VIX is a measure of the implied volatility inthe market by the use of the price levels of theindex options. It was first introduced in 1993by CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange)

and it rapidly gained acceptance as the leadingbarometer for measuring market volatility. Sinceits introduction it has been closely followed andhighly publicized, but never more so than in therecent past as the investors now look towardsVIX to gain insights about the global marketmeltdown. The index is commonly known as thefear index or the market fear gauge becauseit is based on the real time option prices, whichreflects investors consensus about the futurestock market volatility.

Option Pricing & VolatilityOne way to have an intuitive understandingof the relationship between volatility andoption prices is to think of option as a form ofinsurance. Insurance carriers charge premiumson the basis of the risk: greater the risk higher isthe premium charged. Like insurance premiumsthe option prices reflect the market perceptionof risk. When risk is perceived to be high, theinvestors are willing to pay more for options thanwhen perceived market risk is low. Option pricesalso tend to reflect the expected variability ofthe stock market. When the market expects alarge change in the stock prices, often at timesof uncertainty, option prices tend to rise and theoption prices fall as the uncertainty wanes.

VIX The Indian Context

In India, VIX was launched in 2008 by NationalStock Exchange. The volatility index of India iscalculated on the basis of Nifty 50 index options.The values of VIX are calculated by NSE usingthe order book of Nifty options. On the basis of

the best bid-ask prices of all Nifty options theannualized implied volatility is calculated. Thefigure generated is in terms of percentage andit indicates the market volatility over the next 30

days. This can be explained with the followingexample. If the volatility index is 37.19 on aparticular day, it indicates an expected change of+/-37.19% over the coming 30 days.

Historical evidences suggest that VIX is a fairly

reliable indicator to identify and gauge theuncertainty in the market. If monthly closingaverages of VIX are plotted against that of NIFTYwe can see that they move in the oppositedirections. It can be observed that a negativecorrelation exists between the two. Figure 1substantiates this fact.

Why Is Vix Important For The Investors?

There are several reasons why investors payattention to VIX. Generally investors monitorVIX since it provides important informationabout the market sentiment that can be helpfulin evaluating potential market turning point.A group of investors use VIX options and VIXfutures to hedge their portfolio. There is anothergroup who use the same futures, options and VIXexchange traded notes to speculate on the futuredirection of the market.

The most notable feature of this index is itsnegative correlation with the price index. Thisnegative relationship is likely to be the reasonthat tempts the investors to try to hedge

the portfolios using VIX. Apart from this, anasymmetric correlation of the VIX products withthe equity market has been found which means asthe equity market returns become more negative,the inverse correlation becomes greater. Howeversince VIX itself is calculated as an index value,an investor cannot invest in it directly. Investorscan only gain exposure to VIX through futuresand option contracts whose payoffs depend onthe values of the VIX. VIX futures were launchedin 2004 and VIX options started trading in 2006.

Figure 2 shows the growing popularity of the VIXfutures and options over the years.

There are some fundamental differences betweenVIX Option and standardized stockoption. Table 1

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elucidates these differences.

It is imperative for an investor to have a thoroughunderstanding of how VIX options work andhow these can be used as a hedging tool or forspeculative purposes. To implement the hedge,the investor needs to buy near term VIX Calloptions; while to reduce the cost of the hedgehe needs to sell VIX Puts of the same expirationmonth. The concept behind such a strategy isthat, in the case of a stock market decline theVIX index will rise high enough so that the calloption gains significant value to offset the losses

in the portfolio.Volatility Speculation Using Vix Options

VIX option is an excellent tool for the tradersto make speculation on the future movementsof the VIX. Just like any other traditional stockoption, it can be traded during the normal stockmarket hours through a securities broker. Themain features of the volatility trading are that it isnon-directional in nature and the position takenby the trader is that of whether the underlying

asset will have more volatility in the future or

not. Traditionally such a view is implementedby the use of non-vanilla options like strangles,straddles or through variance swaps. Since withthe introduction of VIX derivatives, which havethe advantage of having a standardized impliedvolatility calculation such trading can be easilyimplemented.

How Reliable Is Vix?

The volatility of VIX indicates investors inabilityto effectively understand and measure theuncertainty of the market. To a certain extentthis index also has the same human flaw ofperception that drives the stock prices too highor too low. Since human perception can quicklylead to fear or greed which is beyond the realmof any mathematical or logical explanation, thisindex to a certain extent is affected by the errorof human perception about the market.

Misconceptions about VIX

There are some popular misconceptions that havesurfaced about VIX and these misconceptions

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Fig 1: Opposite movement of Nifty with respect to VIX

Features VIX Options Standardized Stock Option

Exercise StyleEuropean Style Optionwhich can be exercised

only during the expiration

American Style Option which canbe exercised any time before or

during the expiration

SettlementMethod

Cash settled which meansVIX options can only be

exercised by cash deliverybased on the difference

between the index and the

strike price

Stock settled in which an indi-vidual can exercise the stockoption to take delivery of the

underlying stock

Expiration Date Expires on every thirdWednesday of the month

Expires on every thirdFriday of the month

Table 1


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need to be addressed to separate facts fromfiction. These are some overly generalized

interpretations about this index which are usedto deduce certain things which VIX is not actuallydesigned to convey.

Myth-1: VIX is a measurement of present volatility

In order to interpret the index more meaningfullyit is important to remember that VIX is a measureof the expected future volatility and not ameasure of present volatility.

Myth-2: VIX and Index always move inversely

Many people have a misconception that VIX was

created as an indicator of the market directionrather than the market volatility. Actually VIXwas not created to predict the market direction.Since the calculation of VIX is on the basis ofthe option prices which typically tend to riseat the time of uncertainty and fall when theuncertainty subsides, the VIX and the index likeNifty or SPX move inversely to one another. Butthere can be exception to this general trend insome cases. Since its inception in 1993, VIX hasmoved opposite to SPX on an average of 3 outof 4 times. This deviation from the expectedmovement is dependent on the market dynamicsto some extent.

Myth-3: VIX predicts the future stock price

Some traders use this index to garner informationabout the stock market and to predict thebullish or bearish market situation. They believethat very high VIX value signifies extremelyoversold condition and thereby they predictmarket bottoms. In the same way some technicalanalysts look for signs of investor capitulationin the market so as to identify the marketbottom. The concept behind such a view of themis that if there are very few sellers in the market,the market has nowhere to go but up fromthat point. Historically it has been found that

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on the days when the market capitulation hastaken place very high values of VIX have been

recorded. However there is no clear evidence tosuggest that a particular level of VIX correspondto a particular SPX price at the bottom.

Conclusion

Volatility index is a very efficient tool to measurethe implied volatility of the market and it is agreat instrument for hedging at times of financialuncertainty. It also helps investors to tradevolatility with the use of VIX derivatives in casesof expected volatility in the market. But there aresome misconceptions in the minds of investors

regarding this index which need correction so asto make use of the index more effectively.

Fig 2: Growth of average daily volume of VIX Futures & Options


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proposed by Ministry of Housing and UrbanPoverty Alleviation on 4th July, 2013. The Bill,which has been pending for the last two years,is expected to be tabled in the forthcomingParliament session. The bill has beendeveloped with a purpose to address the sad

plight of millions of home buyers. It is expectedto enhance transparency and accountabilityin real estate transactions, thereby restoringconfidence of the general public. TheGovernment had first proposed this bill in2007 as a consequence of mounting pressurefrom the ever deteriorating customer powerand various spheres of polity. Consequently,the first draft of the bill saw the daylight in2009, but because of heavy opposition fromthe developers, the bill couldnt be discussedin the parliament. This draft covered both theCommercial as well as Residential Real Estateprojects. Another draft then came into beingin November 2011 which only had Residential

The Indian real estate continues to meanderalong a slower-than normal recovery track withcertain socio-political and economic issues,particularly rising inflation, subdued interestfrom opportunistic investors, uncertainty onfiscal policies and recuperating US economy.

Though Indias favorable demographics,rising income level, rapid urbanization andlatent demand continue to be a few of theredeeming factors, the sector seems to begoing into the consolidation phase. Severalmarkets still continue to provide suitableinvestment opportunities for investors andend-users alike.

The dire need for focused political andeconomic reforms resulted in approval of FDIin multi brand retail, which is expected to lenda spark to the dormant retail estate prices.There appeared a light on the horizon, whenUnion Cabinet of India approved the DraftReal Estate (Regulation & Development) Bill,

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multitude of reasons ranging from increasedborrowing costs, delay in getting clearancesand decreasing demand after the crisismay have contributed to the delays in thecompletion, but customers have been theclear losers.

Another prominent reason that brought aboutthe Real Estate Regulation and Developmentbill is the huge sum of black money involvedin the sector. According to Reuters, around30% of the transaction money in each dealin the residential sector is turned black. Forexample, for a house priced at INR 1 crore, thedeveloper will ask the buyer to pay a sum ofINR 70 lac by a cheque and the rest as cash. Thedeveloper writes a receipt of INR 70 lac whichis then registered with the tax authorities

thereby causing a loss to the exchequer worththe tax on INR 30 lac. Considering that theReal Estate forms around 10% of Indias $1.9trillion economy, this loss is immense.

The under delivery by the developers hasbeen no less a concern for the Union Ministryof Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation. Theless than promised features in the interiorsof the house like the carpet area, the qualityof bathroom fittings, the quality of the false

ceilings etc. have been a matter of contentionbetween the developers and the customersfor years.

Lets discuss the major clauses of the bill:

properties in its ambit, as suggested by theMinistry of Urban development, and the samehas now been approved by the Union Cabinet.

The Need For Real Estate Regulation

And Development Bill

The introduction of the Real Estate Regulationand Development Act by MHUPA was all butimperative. The Indian Real Estate marketwas and still is marred by long delays in thecompletion of the projects, involvement oflarge sum of black money and under delivery.According to a report published in February2012 by PropEquity, a Real Estate Data,Analytics, Intelligence and Research firm, amassive 45% of all the real estate projects that

were surveyed, are facing significant delays inthe execution.

A host of residential projects were announcedby the developers between 2007 and 2009were to be delivered by January 2012. Asper the report, only 23% of these projectsin the NCR region were complete. For theMumbai Metropolitan Region and BangaloreMetropolitan Region this figure stood at 61%and 63% respectively. Within the residentialprojects in NCR, the affordable housing

projects have been hit the hardest with 92%of all projects facing considerable delays,followed by mid-end housing projects (76%)and high-end residential projects (72%). A

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Fig 1: Financial Statement Items for top Developers



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Regulatory Framework:

The bill postulates setting up of a Regulatoryframework in each State under the purview ofState government. As a nodal agency to co-ordinate all efforts of the Government regardingthe development of the real estate sector, the

regulator shall take all possible measures forthe growth and promotion of a transparent,efficient and competitive real estate sector. Itshall also publish and maintain a website ofrecords of all real estate projects for which anapplication for registration has been received.

Mandatory disclosure of project details:

The Bill aims to make it mandatory fordevelopers to disclose details about theirprojects (including minor details) on thecompany website. The details will includespecifications, such as the layout plan, carpetarea of each unit, number of units in theproject, the amenities being provided, thestatus of approvals received, proposed timelineof completion, approved banks, approvedbroker details and Architect details. Thesedisclosures aim at maintaining transparencyand preventing any misuse of details by theproperty brokers.

In addition, the concept of super area will no

longer be permitted. Developers will have to

specify the carpet area of each dwelling andwill have to send periodic updates on thestatus of construction mandatorily.

Adherence to specifications and Stress ontimeliness:

The Bill targets at providing considerable

relief to the buyer who faces immeasurabledifficulties and at times even gets duped byproperty brokers and developers. The billspostulates setting up of regulatory mechanismin every state to ensure that construction iscompleted on time and upon completion thecustomer gets a property that truly matcheswith the agreed specification. The bill alsoseeks to tackle cases of misappropriationof funds with strict guidelines for funddisbursement and project launches.

Fund Management:

The Bill aims to make it mandatory for RealEstate developers to maintain separate bankaccounts with scheduled commercial banks foreach of their projects. The minimum limit of70% of the corpus raised for the project frombuyers (at intervals) will have to be depositedwithin 15 days of realization in the account.This limit can be further adjusted by the stateregulator on need basis. Such arrangement will

prohibit diversion of funds from one project to

Fig 2: Impact of Fund Management Clause

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other and encourage developers to optimallyutilize the money to meet the project cost ofthe individual projects. On longer run, thisclause will ensure timely completion of projecttoo.

Laws pertaining to Advertisements andAdvances:

The bill proposes to prohibit Real Estatecompanies from advertising or marketingtheir projects before getting all the necessaryclearances and obtaining a certificate ofregistration from the authorities. They will alsonot be allowed to collect funds from buyers

before obtaining all approvals. The project willbe deemed launched only after getting all thenecessary nods from the various governmentauthorities involved. Non-compliance to suchclauses will attract imprisonment for up tothree years, or a penalty that may extend to10% of the estimated cost of the project, orboth. In addition, the developer will have to

compensate (to be decided by the regulator)the buyer who incurs a loss on account ofadvance payment based on false informationcontained in the developers advertisement.For cancellation of sale, the developer willneed to give due notice to the parties tothe agreement and refund the amountcollected along with interest, as prescribedby the regulator. Moreover, in case there isa major structural defect or deficiency in thedevelopment or services offered and this isbrought to the developers notice within oneyear by the buyer, the developer will have torectify those defects without levying furthercharges.

Licensing of Realty brokers:

In order to track the black money andconsolidate the real estate broker industry,the bill mandates compulsory registrationof real estate agents by the authority andissue licenses. This will further streamline

A massive 45% of all the real estate

projects in the metros that were tobe completed by January 2012, arefacing signicant delays in the execu-

tion.

Fig 3: Timeline for Approvals



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this industry and make real estate broking anorganized profession. Though many expertsfeel that license fee or registration fee shall becharged to conduct business but no provisionhas been made under the proposed bill.

The Shortcomings

Like most of the Indian Bills, this important pieceof legislation is also marred by some seriousshortcomings and lack of foresightedness.These lacunae can highly debilitate the entirepurpose of the bill. Some of the clearly feltdeficiencies in the Real Estate Regulation andDevelopment Bill 2013 are:

1. The bill is applicable to only new realestate projects. Since this bill was coined inyear 2011, a very high number of projects

were launched by developers in past 2 yearsin anticipation of this bill. Thus, a significantnumber of customers will not be able to enjoythe benefits of the bill.

2. This bill covers projects which are of at least4000 square meters in area. Given the realestate growth for the last three years, mostof the land in and around the major citieshas been used by large real estate projects.The current trends indicate that most of thenew projects are expected to come from

small developers with smaller area, which willnot fall under the ambit of the bill therebyrendering the law useless.

3. The bill in its current form will lead to a sharpdecline in the number of housing projects thatwill be launched in the coming 2 years as thedevelopers wouldnt be allowed to markettheir plans till they get all the necessaryapprovals from the concerned authorities.

4. Real estate being a concurrent subject also

falls under the states list. Thus, it is up tothe state government to decide the extentof the bill that gets enacted in their area ofinfluence. Strong developer communities in aparticular state can, for all practical purposes,defeat the entire purpose of the bill.

5. One of the biggest flaws that the billencapsulates is the lack of transparency on

the part of the government. Though it putsa host of conditions on the developers, itdoes not address the basic concern of delaysin the projects due to the governmentsincomprehensible process of providingclearances and land acquisition rights.

5 Years down the Line

Having a regulatory body will ensure a moredisciplined and practically ambitious industry,a timely and complete delivery of projectswith greater transparency and accountability.Creation of an Escrow account, which will holdthe funds of the buyers, will lower the risk forthe lenders thus incentivising them to offerdebt at lower rates. The ever increasing pricesof the projects will be kept under check as

additional demand for land will be controlledby prohibiting cross collateralization and crossrouting of funds from one project to another.The landowners may get a stake in the projectas against a one-time compensation paidup front, as the developers wouldnt prefercreating land banks by over leveraging.

The scenario definitely looks brighter once theBill becomes a Law, but as is the case with alllegislations in the country, the enforcementholds the key to the lock that the entire nation

wants to break open.

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The scenario denitely looks

brighter once the Bill becomes aLaw, but as is the case with all

legislation in the country, the

enforcement holds the ke y.


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inGyaan

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the fact that it has no intrinsic value and is notbacked by any reserves, Bitcoin has no centralizedissuing authority.

Bitcoin miners are awarded with Bitcoins forcracking or solving an extremely and increasinglydifficult proof-of-work problems which confirmtransactions and prevent it from double-spending.To receive an award, the network currentlyrequires approximately over one million times ofmore work for confirming a block. Currently 50BTCs are awarded whenever the first blocks getsconfirmed.

How It Is Traded?

To start with a Bitcoin transaction, participants

begin by first acquiring a program called a Bitcoinwallet. Bitcoins are stored in this digital wallet.This wallet has an address and one can have morethan one Bitcoin addresses. Bitcoin addresses areused for receiving Bitcoins, in the same way weuse our e-mail addresses for receiving e-mails.Payments through Bitcoin is in experimental phase,though it has already been deployed on a largescale (the current value of all the coins issued sofar exceeds 100,000,000 USD) and attracts a lot ofmedia attention.

The user addresses are characterized by theirpublic/private key pairs owned by him and thestring length can differ in a range from 27-34e.g. 1NvQuPB4L2hkJtY6NiNw9fLT1HQMYLfC4b. ABitcoin transaction is a general form of a regularbank transaction it allows multiple sending andreceiving addresses in the same transaction. Thetransaction doesnt disclose anybodys identityabout who gave how much to whom and justspecifies how many Bitcoins were taken from each

of the sending addresses and how many Bitcoinswere credited to each of the receiving addresses.

Where It Is Traded?

There are various Bitcoin exchanges, where

The best way to describe Bitcoin is as an invisible,virtual form of currency. Bitcoin, also known ascrypto-currency, is a new decentralized electronic

currency that can be sent through the internetwithout any middlemen. It is a concept whichwas first described by Wei Dai in 1998 on thecypherpunks mailing list. This scheme was firstsuggested by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008, andbecame fully operational in January 2009. Bitcoinsare digital coins which are not issued by anygovernment, bank, or organization, and are purelypeer to peer online payments sent directly fromone party to another without any interruption ofany financial institution.

Building upon the notion that money is any object,accepted as payment for goods and services orrepayment of debts in any given country, Bitcoinis designed around the idea of using cryptographyto control the creation and transfer of money.

Unlike other commodities like gold or silver whichwe mine by digging and extracting, Bitcoins can bemined not by actually digging but by generatingit on the internet and expectedly, it is done byprogrammers.

Who Generates It?

Bitcoin can be generated all over the internet byanybody, running a free application called a Bitcoinminer. Mining requires a certain amount of workfor each block of coins. This amount is adjusted bythe network such that the Bitcoins are generatedat a predictable and a limited rate. The networkis programmed such that the money supply willincrease in a slowly increasing geometric seriesuntil the total number of Bitcoin reaches an upperlimit of about 21 million BTCs. The ledger whichrecords all transactions is updated and archivedperiodically. Each Bitcoin is subdivided down toeight decimal places, thereby splitting it into 100million smaller units called Satoshis.

Unlike Fiat currency (Dollar, Euro, Pound etc.)which are issued by a government, and due to

WelIngkaRInStItute, MuMbaI

Vipul Agrawal

Bitcoin: A New

Currency for World


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Bitcoins are bought and sold at a variable priceagainst the value of other currency. Bitcoin hasappreciated rapidly in relation to existing fiatcurrencies including the US dollar, euro and Britishpound. In April 2013, 1 BTC was traded equivalentto $100$260.

Can This Money Be Robbed?

As none is involved between peer to peertransactions, Bitcoins unique feature lies in thefact that transactions are accepted or denied justby agreeing on a single history of transaction onthe network.

Due to many connectivity and propagation issues,it becomes difficult to make everyone aware aboutthe transaction at all times, and can be abused bydouble-spending the same money. Due to suchflaws and incapability of the network, someonecould actually spend the same money twice

before the first transaction gets completed andregistered. To avoid such fraud transactions, thisgap needs to be plugged. On Bitcoin exchangenetwork, people are identified by the softwareapplications they are running and their respectiveIP addresses.

The validity of transaction keeps a track of manyIPs and this could be hacked by someone whocan then allocate these many IPs . This technologyis known as proof-of-work and was originallysuggested by Adam Backs Hashcash as a measure

to prevent email spam.Scenario In Indian Market For Bitcoin

Bitcoin has so far gotten very less popularity inIndia, despite the two facts that India has moreprogrammers/computer people than the rest ofthe world combined and Millions of Indians liveoutside India and send money to/from relatives inIndia. This is due to following reasons:

People in India love tangible assets (gold/silver)

The Rupee has been falling since quite some

time now. Unlike China, India has no great firewall

2013 is expected to be a big year with smallExchanges emerging out for Bitcoin in India.Remittances is a growing market and there is ahuge opportunity for Bitcoin in India. Initiativesare being planned for the same to roll out this orcoming next year.

Remittances market is currently dominated bybanks or Hawala operators. Bitcoin can be the onestop shop and better solution for this which can

instantly bring a tremendous positive change inthis remittance market. This change can even bedriven and adopted by the remittance companiesand banks currently operating in India.

FIN-Q Solutions

MAY 2013

1. Angelina Jolie StockIndex

2. Golden Parachute

3. Currency Note (U.SDollar)

4. Barclays CapitalGlobal AggregateBond Index

5. Chicken Market

6. Leo Melamed

7. Wanton Disregard

8. Pyramiding



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NIVESHAK 18

Articleofthe

Month

1973

Finistor

y

Ever imagined about a war leading to thedevelopment of economies in the long run?

Well, there was a war in the past which led tobear a commendable impact on the economy ofthe United States and other western countries.

Until 1973, the western economy was largelydependent on oil and other resources whichwere not naturally available in their territory.Industries were dependent on it, cars were not asfuel efficient as they are today and even houseswere heated using oil dependent resources. TheUS and other nations did not realize or eventhink about what would be the impact of the

non-availability of oil on them. However, theArab nations realized this dependence and used

it to reprove these nations for supporting Israelin the Yom Kippur War against Palestine.

On October 17th 1973, the Arab nations withheldthe oil that they had produced without supplyingit to the western countries which supportedIsrael in the war. They also introduced cutsin the production of oil. It was then that thegovernments of the western nations realizedthe seriousness of the position that they werein.

In those days, oil cost was about 30 cents perlitre. Cars were hardly fuel efficient; people didnot bother to even think about the mileage of

their cars. More than 80% of the working classtravelled to their places of work by their own

IIM ShIllongDarshana Nair

The

Arab OilEmbargo

Fig 1: Household Wasteage of Electricity in Pre-Oil crisis Days


19/28



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and other vehicles for walkable distances. A lotof people also started using public transport togo to the office or pool vehicles rather than usetheir own transport.

Affected Nations

The map below in Figure 2 gives us an idea of

the countries that majorly imported and exportedoil were affected by the 1973 oil crisis.

As can be observed, the most affected countrywas the United States of America. Other nationsthat were involved on the victim side of the crisiswere the nations of Western Europe which alsosupported Israel in the war.

Japan was one the few nations which tookadvantage of the situation and benefited fromthe same on another front (though it wasalso grappling with the issue of high oil prices

as shown in the map also). They increasedproduction of fuel efficient cars and exported toaffected nations (such as the US) which were indire need for the same. The crisis also led to aworld-wide recession. Thus, in effect it affectedall the countries in one way or the other. However,the impact was greater in the US and Canada.The value of the dollar also came down to a large

extent.

Solutions Adopted By The Usa To Curb

The Crisis

The government of the USA undertook multipleinitiatives to beat the crisis. They introducedthe day light saving time throughout the year

so that people would get to start the day earlyand thus save the amount of oil otherwiseused on lighting up houses and offices. Sale ofgasoline was restricted and banned on Sundays.On other days, multiple clauses were imposedon the same. There were numerous rules andregulations introduced in the use of privateautomobiles. As already mentioned, a speedlimit of 55 miles per hour was imposed toimprove efficiency of the automobiles. Energypolicies such as Energy Policy and Conservation

Act of 1976, Energy Conservation and ProductionAct of 1976, Energy Reorganization Act of 1974,and National Energy Act of 1978 were introduced.

The government also created a separatedepartment known as the Energy departmentbecause they realized that depending on theresources of other nations could turn out to bedangerous in the long term.

Fig 2: Countries Affected by the 1973 Oil Crisis


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Alternative View

There is also an alternate view that the embargowas a direct result of the 1971 price controls

imposed by President Nixon. These controlsacted in a restrictive manner preventing the oilcompanies from passing on the complete costof oil to the retail outlets. It is said that this ledthe companies from cutting back their suppliesand saving the same for their own franchiseoutlets. As a result, a lot of pumps had to shutdown due to shortage of oil. The governmentthen passed an emergency petroleum allocationact in September 1973. According to this act, thelimited supply had to be shared by the franchise

outlets and other pumps. A certain amount wasalso under the control of the state so that itcould ensure smooth supply by supplying tothose states which had a shortfall.

According to this other view, the embargo was anillusion resulting from the above phenomenon.However, the cutbacks in the production aretrue, though these were lesser than the actualamount of oil that remained in stock.

Conclusion

Be it a myth or an intentional move, the oilcrisis of 1973 created a huge impact on theeconomy of the whole world. Subsequentrises in price of oil has been pretty frequentever since, but such a sudden hike was a huge

June 2012

shock to economies of many countries. Figure2 illustrates the movement of oil prices in theinternational market since the oil crisis, till date.

As can be seen in Figure 3, there have beengreater hikes in prices after the 1973 oil crisis.However, that does not undermine the impactof this crisis, which has been massive in itsown right. It has had a commendable effecton all economies of the world. It has resultedin bringing about a lot of good, though it didadversely affect the economies in the short run.Even though it brought about a lot of good, itis still debatable if the economy deserves suchshocks in future! This was one event which

helped a war lead to growth and developmentin the world.

Fig 3: Oil Price Hikes



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Finsight

Banking has been an integral component of everyeconomy. In India too, it has evolved through along journey and has attained pinnacles over thetime. Today, it stands tall with a strong pillar basecomprising nationalised , private and foreignbanks. There has been a tremendous change inthe way banks operate in terms technology usage,customer relations management, developmentof new products etc. The only thing, which hasremained static, is the banking fundamentals .

However, with the force of change sweeping acrossall industries, banking seems to be the most affectedone. Globalisation has made it impossible for the

country to stay shielded from the global crisis. Toour destiny, Indias banking industry is among thevery few in the world which has been able to survivethis financial storm and maintain resilience.

The financial crisis of 2008 became glaringly evidentwith the failure and collapse of several large banksin the United States. The banks in India could notescape without being hit by the storm and in notime started suffering from cash crunch, majorlydue to global recession and the monetary policydecisions to control inflation. However, in these

conditions too, they were able to sail through, dueto limited exposure to bad assets, thanks to theIndian Banking system, which is well-regulated andfinancially sound.

The world is witnessing a change not only in its

climate, but also in economic conditions. The storm

called recession hovers across the globe with fears of

onset every 5 years. The horizon at which this storm

occurs has reduced over the years and the world

now faces a risk of falling into another recession.

Though the world economy is showing progress

in terms of reduced unemployment, bullish stock

markets, increased industrial outputs, etc., analysts

and experts consider this situation to be temporary

and expect the economy to pass through another

round of recession soon.

Taking these conditions into circumstances is there a

vessel, which enables everyone to survive and wadethrough this turbulance with minimum destruction?

Can there be a system, which has strict compliancesand practises to ensure that interest of itsstakeholders, is never put at stake?

For an economy to grow steadily, it requires asturdy base of savings backed by ample institutionalarrangements for deployment of these sums suchthat it meets the requirements at all times. A well-developed capital market becomes an indispensibleprerequisite for allocation of savings in the economy.

This system must also be flexible enough to adapt tothe ever-changing economic conditions.

To mitigate all the fears we hold, a system of bankinginstilled with the principles of equity and justice,which is widespread and successfully implementedin many parts of the world, under the bannerIslamic Banking needs to be adopted. This systemhas its roots back to the early sixties, where theneed to differentiate lawful activities from prohibitedactivities was identified. The seed of this form ofbanking has been sowed so well that it has never

looked back since then and has continued a strongspree of growth despite the crisis that has burnt thepockets of the conventional banks globally.

Islamic banking is a system in consistent witha law, which is against collection or payment oftaxes. It also believes that inflation sources itselffrom interest and accumulation of the amount leadsto increase in divide among the rich and the poor.Mortgage system is followed instead of lending anamount to the buyer to purchase the product, abank might itself buy a product and re-sell it to theindividual seeking a loan at a profit, while allowinghim to pay back to the bank in instalments.

There are some basic laws which are supposed to befollowed as per the Islamic banking norms. For e.g.

SP JaIn, DubaI

Prakarsh Jain & Varun Misar


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Finsight

prohibition on collection and payment of any kindof interest, prohibition on investment in businesswhich is considered unlawful, etc.

In the book, the Future of Money by BernardLietar, he has very well highlighted the dangers ofinterest and then mentioned how this system has

represented the last bastion of resistance. He hasalso gone further and explained interest, as a directcause of inflation and thereon the concept the richgetting richer and poor getting poorer.

Following are some of the financing options that havebeen made available as per the Islamic Banking Law:

a. Murabaha Cost Plus Financing

b. Ijara Leasing

c. Mudaraba Profit sharing

d. Musharaka Joint Venture

e. Al Rahn Short term Financing

f. Salam Forward Purchasing

g. Qarhd Non Profit Loans

Islamic banking has a huge market potential in India.India is a 3rd largest Muslim populated country.The banking system has nothing to do with thecommunity as such but the financial inclusion willlead to a feel good factor amongst the community.If we think of it further, it leads to a diplomaticadvantage for the government to deal with Muslim

dominated nations in an effective manner andthereby attracting funds for infrastructure which willhelp in reducing the fiscal deficit of the country.

The Sachar Committee report has highlightedthat approximately half of the Muslim populationare financially excluded. It also points out thatintroduction of the Islamic banking system wouldlead to an inclusion of majority of this populationand thereon an increase in the size of bankingindustry manifold.

Way back in time, one on one interview withexecutives of personal banking division of variousbanks revealed that significant Muslim populationis:

a. Against investing in funds which include a debtcomponent

b. Donating the interest component received ontheir savings account

c. Using zero interest account

This can take us to only one conclusion, as to thatthere are individuals, who in their own way followthe Islamic law.

Experts have termed the Islamic Banking Systemas a one of the best recessionary proof system ofbanking in the World.

The Troubles

Indian banking law does not explicitly prohibit theintroduction but certain provisions in the currentsystem makes it almost unviable for its introduction.Following are some of them:

a. Various laws regulate banks and one of thefeatures of these acts is that the banks can acceptdeposits from public only for further lending. Theyalso prohibit banks from investing on profit and losssharing basis in other companies. Furthermore, itrestricts banks to directly or indirectly indulge inbuying or selling or bartering of goods

b. The government interferes in the balance sheetby directing banks to provide concessional credit topriority sector

c. The CRR and the SLR requirements

The Solvent

Besides banking to which there are various laws thatapply, there are non-banking financial institutions,which can think of following the Islamic principles offinance without much of a change.

On its part, government too can introduce some

schemes for banks who are willing to follow theseprinciples under which, instead of interest payments,it can share profits earned on investments. Aresearch paper shows that nearly 50% of theBSE500 companies happen to follow Islamic financeparameters and therefore banks can invest and earnhandsome profits.



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Sir, this time, what confuses me is aterm they call Golden Cross. I doubt, has

it got something to do with gold trade?

No, but the name surely sounds likea misnomer to beginners like it did toyou. Rather, golden cross develops whena securitys short-term moving average(such as 15-day moving average) breaks

above its long-term moving average (such as 50-daymoving average) or the resistance level. Typically, thiscrossover is seen as a bullish indicator by technicalanalysts, which is why it is called golden.

Are there any fixed standards onwhich averages should be considered whiledeciding on a golden cross?

In truth, any pair of moving averagescan be used to create the golden crosseffect point critics of technical analysisnever tire of making. However, for mostchart watchers, the classic golden cross

develops when the 50-day moving average of amarket crosses above the 200-day moving average ofthat market. On a similar note, a silver cross is saidto be formed when the 40-day moving average of amarket crosses above the 150-day moving average ofthat market.

Sir, is it really true that goldencross indicates bullish market as theanalysts say or is it that the stock orsecurity is on a rally?

There is a complexity involved here.Seeing past records, the strength of thesignal appears to depend on whether it is

associated with a recession-induced decline or not.Since January 1928, the S&P 500 has generated 42Golden Cross signals that have on average precededa 12-month return of 9.3%, exceeding the average12-month return of 7.1% for the index. The point is

that, out of 43 crosses, 15 were when equity priceswere recovering from a recession-induced bear marketand, the average twelve-month return subsequentlyrecorded for them has been an impressive 19 percent or twelve percentage points above the long-termmean.

That confuses me further. Do I concludethat golden cross points to an oncomingbullish season or not?

Well, thats a tough call. The erraticperformance of the non-recession signalsis such that the returns subsequentlydelivered lag the stock markets historical

mean return over any short-term period worthy ofnote, including three-, six-, nine-, and twelve-monthhorizons. Historically, on an annualised basis, thesignals performance lagged returns that could havebeen generated by chance over the respective shorthorizons by three to four percentage points. In a

nutshell, Golden Crosses that are not associatedwith an economic downturn do not work and, haveno place in the toolbox of seasoned investors.

Thank you Sir. That makes thingsaround the golden cross pretty clear.

You are surely welcome. As an endingnote, also remember that some people use

the term death cross as the opposite ofgolden cross i.e. a point where securityslong-term moving average breaks above its

short-term moving average or support level.

CLASSROOM

FinFundaof theMonth

Golden Cross

NIVESHAK 24

Classro

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IIM ShillongGourav Sachdeva


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F I N - Q1. He wrote the greatest book on investing and introduced the world to Mr.

Market. The author is also a mentor of the great Warren Buffet. Identify the

person.

2. This bank was established as a JV of World Bank, Govt. of India and Indian

Insurance Companies, which later on transformed itself from a medium and

long term financing institution to a diversified financial group.

3. The countries X has only paper currency and have no coins. X introduced

cheque only in 1997. Identify X?

4. In case of an over-subscription of an IPO, the underwriter can sell additional

shares up to 15% of the total shares offered which is called ____________.

5. The only Foreign bank to which RBI has issued a differentiated licence in 2008

to carry out transactions with respect to credit card and travel?

6. Name the rapidly growing debt instrument, which derives its name from a

popular cuisine of the country, whose currency is the underlying denomination

for the instrument.

7. Name the famous international fashion house, the owner duo of which has

very recently been sentenced to more than a year and half in prison for tax

evasion of USD 1.33 billion.

8. What term would be coined for a point on a yield curve indicating a year in

which an economy had highest interest rates?

9. Which banking major with the following logo recently decided to surrender

the banking licence in line with the groups global strategy of conserving

capital and wind up its capital intensive businesses?

All entries should be mailed at [email protected] by 10h July, 2013 23:59 hrs One

lucky winner will receive cash prize of Rs. 500/-


27/28

Article of the MonthPrize - INR 1000/-

Siddharta BanerjeeIFMR Chennai

W I N N E R S

A N N O U N C E M E N T SALL ARE INVITED

Team Niveshak invites articles from B-Schools all across India. We are looking fororiginal articles related to finance & economics. Students can also contribute puzzlesand jokes related to finance & economics. References should be cited wherever nec-essary. The best article will be featured as the Article of the Month and would be

awarded cash prize of Rs.1000/- along with a certificate.

Instructions Please send your articles before 10th July, 2013 to [email protected] The subject line of the mail must be Article for Niveshak_ Do mention your name, institute name and batch with your article Please ensure that the entire document has a wordcount between 1200 - 1500 Format: Microsoft WORD File, Font: - Times New Roman, Size: - 12, Line spacing: 1.5 Please do NOT send PDF files and kindly stick to the format

Number of authors is limited to 2 at maximum Mention your e-mail id/ blog if you want the readers to contact you for furtherdiscussion Also certain entries which could not make the cut to the Niveshak will get figured

on our Blog in the Specials section

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