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WildernessChallenged:The new era ofunprecedented andunpredictable globalchanges
Nathan L. Stephenson
U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
1. Climate change and its effects are here.A. It’s getting warmer.B. Effects of climate change are already evident.C. Profound changes are expected for the future.
2. In the face of unprecedented global changes, pastconditions no longer automatically provide us withsensible management targets for the future.A. Future conditions will have no analog in the past.B. The problem with “back to the future.”
3. The future is uncertain, forcing us to think and act infundamentally new (revolutionary!) ways.A. We cannot predict the future in detail.B. In spite of uncertainty, we can still plan and act.C. Rethinking the meaning of “natural.”D. Taking action 1: Adapting to climatic change.E. Taking action 2: Mitigating climatic change.
1. Climate change and its effects are here.A. It’s getting warmer.B. Effects of climate change are already evident.C. Profound changes are expected for the future.
2. In the face of unprecedented global changes, pastconditions no longer automatically provide us withsensible management targets for the future.A. Future conditions will have no analog in the past.B. The problem with “back to the future.”
3. The future is uncertain, forcing us to think and act infundamentally new (revolutionary!) ways.A. We cannot predict the future in detail.B. In spite of uncertainty, we can still plan and act.C. Rethinking the meaning of “natural.”D. Taking action 1: Adapting to climatic change.E. Taking action 2: Mitigating climatic change.
Proxy records (e.g., from tree rings, corals, cave formations)show that recent temperatures are almost certainly the
warmest of the last 1,700 years
Mann et al., PNAS, 2008
Current atmospheric CO2 concentrations arethe highest in at least the last 650,000 years,
and probably in the last 20 million years.
The longer view: CO2 concentrations
Years before present
Atm
osph
eric
CO
2 con
cent
ratio
n(p
arts
per
mill
ion)
0
100
200
300
400
600,000 300,000 0
Today!
1. Climate change and its effects are here.A. It’s getting warmer.B. Effects of climate change are already evident.C. Profound changes are expected for the future.
2. In the face of unprecedented global changes, pastconditions no longer automatically provide us withsensible management targets for the future.A. Future conditions will have no analog in the past.B. The problem with “back to the future.”
3. The future is uncertain, forcing us to think and act infundamentally new (revolutionary!) ways.A. We cannot predict the future in detail.B. In spite of uncertainty, we can still plan and act.C. Rethinking the meaning of “natural.”D. Taking action 1: Adapting to climatic change.E. Taking action 2: Mitigating climatic change.
Photo by G. K. Gilbert
(1) Glaciersare melting
August 14, 1908
Photo by H. Basagic
August 2, 2003
Darwin glacier,Kings CanyonNational Park,Sierra Nevada
US Forest Service lands
National Park Service lands
Glaciers and ice features
Andrew G. FountainPortland State Univ.
Stewart et al., J. Climate, 2004
(2) Summers are getting longer and drier:Snow fall is declining (relative to rain):
Snowpack water content is declining:
Spring snowmelt is arriving earlier:
Mote et al., BAMS, 2005
Knowles et al., J. Climate, 2006
Stewart et al., J. Climate, 2004
(2) Summers are getting longer and drier:Snow fall is declining (relative to rain):
Snowpack water content is declining:
Spring streamflow is arriving earlier:
Mote et al., BAMS, 2005
Knowles et al., J. Climate, 2006
(3) Area burned is increasing, fire season is lengthening, and fires are harder to control ...
Photo: N. Stephenson
(From Arno 1996, updated by Caprio 2002)
Year1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Acres Burned - 1916 to 2002
Burn
ed a
rea
(milli
ons
of a
cres
)
Western states (bars) and California (line)
(4) Animals are on the moveThe Grinnell Resurvey Project, Sierra Nevada1914 - 1920 2003 - 2006
Bancroft Library, UC Berkeley
© Les Chow
MVZ, UC Berkeley
Elev
atio
n (m
eter
s)
Species
Moritz et al., Science 2008
Small mammals are moving upslope in the Sierra Nevada.
(5) Phenology is changingCalifornia butterflies are flying earlier
Ran
ked
date
of f
irst f
light
Forister & Shapiro 2003, Glob. Change Biol.
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Mor
talit
y ra
te (%
yr-1
)
van Mantgem et al. 2009van Mantgem & Stephenson 2007
… most likely due to warming.
1. Climate change and its effects are here.A. It’s getting warmer.B. Effects of climate change are already evident.C. Profound changes are expected for the future.
2. In the face of unprecedented global changes, pastconditions no longer automatically provide us withsensible management targets for the future.A. Future conditions will have no analog in the past.B. The problem with “back to the future.”
3. The future is uncertain, forcing us to think and act infundamentally new (revolutionary!) ways.A. We cannot predict the future in detail.B. In spite of uncertainty, we can still plan and act.C. Rethinking the meaning of “natural.”D. Taking action 1: Adapting to climatic change.E. Taking action 2: Mitigating climatic change.
Mountain snowpack will diminish significantly,lengthening the summer drought
Knowles & Cayan 2004, Clim. Change
FormerreserveReserve
Rangelimit
Speciesrange
FutureWilderness
Potentialrange limit
Formerrange limit
After Peters (1992)
Species’ ranges will shiftMany current protected areas will become unsuitable
Formerreserve
Rangelimit
Speciesrange
Potentialrange limit
Formerrange limit
After Peters (1992)
Wilderness
Species’ ranges will shiftMany current protected areas will become unsuitable
FutureWilderness
Wilderness
Rangelimit
Speciesrange
Potentialrange limit
Formerrange limit
After Peters (1992)
Wilderness
Species’ ranges will shiftMany current protected areas will become unsuitable
FutureWilderness
A
B
C
B
C
D
After Peters (1992)
If only the temperaturechanges ...
Enoughsoil for B?
Only sometimes.
Making it real for giant sequoias, ~100 to 150 years from now:
Can this ... ... become establishedand thrive here?
A
B
C
E
F
G
After Peters (1992)
A more likely scenario ...
If precipitation timingand amount also
change ...
Species’ ranges will shiftSpecies will behave individualistically, meaning
it will be impossible to maintain biotic communitiesin their current or “natural” state.
1. Climate change and its effects are here.A. It’s getting warmer.B. Effects of climate change are already evident.C. Profound changes are expected for the future.
2. In the face of unprecedented global changes, pastconditions no longer automatically provide us withsensible management targets for the future.A. Future conditions will have no analog in the past.B. The problem with “back to the future.”
3. The future is uncertain, forcing us to think and act infundamentally new (revolutionary!) ways.A. We cannot predict the future in detail.B. In spite of uncertainty, we can still plan and act.C. Rethinking the meaning of “natural.”D. Taking action 1: Adapting to climatic change.E. Taking action 2: Mitigating climatic change.
The 800-pound gorillas:
(1) Altered disturbance regimes
Even without climatic changes, protected areasare already faced with a suite of novel stressors.
Goal: ~10,000 ha per year
Accomplished:~1,500 haper year(15% of goal)
After 40 years, we haven’t come close to restoring fire regimes at a landscape scale.
N deposition, 1860 N deposition, 1993
500020001000750500250100
50255
Galloway & Cowling 2002;Galloway et al., 2002b
Humans now fix more biologically active nitrogen per yearthan is fixed by natural processes.
The 800-pound gorillas:
(1) Altered disturbance regimes
(2) Pollution
(3) Non-native invasive species
Credit: Todd Esque, USGS
An example from the Mojave desert:
Invasion altered fire regime loss of natives
The 800-pound gorillas:
(1) Altered disturbance regimes
(2) Pollution
(3) Non-native invasive species
(4) Habitat fragmentation
• Reduced gene flow• Disrupted metapopulation dynamics• Habitats too small for viable populations• Barriers to species reintroductions and
migrations
The 800-ton gorilla:
(1) Altered disturbance regimes
(2) Air pollution
(3) Non-native invasive species
(4) Habitat fragmentation
(5) Rapid climatic change
2100:Moderate-emissions
scenario
2100:High-
emissionsscenario
Red = environments that disappear from U.S.Orange = environments that decrease in U.S.Green = environments that increase in U.S.
Saxon et al. 2005, Ecol. Lett.
Climatic changes will cause many contemporaryenvironments to disappear ...
Saxon et al. 2005, Ecol. Lett.
White = environments with a current analog in U.S.Gray = environments without current analog in U.S.,
under both emissions scenariosBlack = environments without current analog in U.S.,
under high emissions scenario
... and no-analog (novel) environments to appear.
2100
- Altered disturbance regimes- Pollution (N deposition, O3, etc)
- Non-native invasive species- Habitat fragmentation
EVERY ENV’T MAY BE A NO-ANALOG ENV’TSaxon et al. 2005, Ecol. Lett.
White = environments with a current analog in U.S.Gray = environments without current analog in U.S.,
under both emissions scenariosBlack = environments without current analog in U.S.,
under high emissions scenario
... and no-analog (novel) environments to appear.
1. Climate change and its effects are here.A. It’s getting warmer.B. Effects of climate change are already evident.C. Profound changes are expected for the future.
2. In the face of unprecedented global changes, pastconditions no longer automatically provide us withsensible management targets for the future.A. Future conditions will have no analog in the past.B. The problem with “back to the future.”
3. The future is uncertain, forcing us to think and act infundamentally new (revolutionary!) ways.A. We cannot predict the future in detail.B. In spite of uncertainty, we can still plan and act.C. Rethinking the meaning of “natural.”D. Taking action 1: Adapting to climatic change.E. Taking action 2: Mitigating climatic change.
Uh oh! Rough water. … Let me put things back the way they were! *
* … or let me sit backand watch natural processessort things out on their own!
An example of a threshold response:The massive piñon pine die-off in the Southwest
Credit: Craig Allen & NSF
The drought was not exceptional (it was wetter than the1950s drought), but the temperature was higher
Annu
al p
reci
pita
tion
(mm
) Annual temperature (˚C
)
YearBreshears et al. 2005, PNAS
1. Climate change and its effects are here.A. It’s getting warmer.B. Effects of climate change are already evident.C. Profound changes are expected for the future.
2. In the face of unprecedented global changes, pastconditions no longer automatically provide us withsensible management targets for the future.A. Future conditions will have no analog in the past.B. The problem with “back to the future.”
3. The future is uncertain, forcing us to think and act infundamentally new (revolutionary!) ways.A. We cannot predict the future in detail.B. In spite of uncertainty, we can still plan and act.C. Rethinking the meaning of “natural.”D. Taking action 1: Adapting to climatic change.E. Taking action 2: Mitigating climatic change.
PREDICTION: projecting a future state by usingan empirically validated model that’s usuallybased on well-established first principles(these models are often called “laws”).
e.g., from Chemistry 101, the Ideal Gas Law:
PV = nRT
FORECAST: projecting a future state by usinga model that may be incomplete, weaklyvalidated, not based on well-established firstprinciples, or otherwise known or suspectedto be significantly imperfect.
For example …
IPCC 2007
Forecasts of future climatic changes depend heavily on:(1) presumed future greenhouse gas emissions,(2) the particular global climate model used, and
(3) the scale of interest (e.g. global vs. regional vs. local).
For example, we don’t know if northern California will get warmer and wetter or warmer and drier!
Dettinger 2005
Bachelet et al. 2003, Global Biogeochem. Cycles
Uncertainty in future conditions is further compoundedby uncertainty in biotic models.
MC1model
LPJmodel
SCENARIO: a plausible and internally consistent“story” about a possible future.
For example:“In 2050 the Sierra Nevada is warmer and
wetter, but snow is melting much earlier; wildfires are somewhat larger and harder to control; and an emergent pathogen is killing giant sequoias at 20 times the ‘normal’ rate.”
SCENARIO: a plausible and internally consistent“story” about a possible future.
For example:“In 2050 the Sierra Nevada is warmer and
wetter, but snow is melting much earlier; wildfires are somewhat larger and harder to control; and an emergent pathogen is killing giant sequoias at 20 times the ‘normal’ rate.”
• Forecasts are foundational to scenarios.• Future policy and management decisions will
depend heavily on arrays of scenarios.
The 800-pound gorillas:
(1) Altered disturbance regimes
(2) Pollution
(3) Non-native invasive species
(4) Habitat fragmentation
Uncertainty will be compounded even further by interactions between climatic changes and other agents of change …
Credit: Roland Knapp
Credit: Vance Vredenburg et al.
... and we’re bound to be blindsided by completelyunanticipated events (e.g., the devastating rise of chytrid).
1. Climate change and its effects are here.A. It’s getting warmer.B. Effects of climate change are already evident.C. Profound changes are expected for the future.
2. In the face of unprecedented global changes, pastconditions no longer automatically provide us withsensible management targets for the future.A. Future conditions will have no analog in the past.B. The problem with “back to the future.”
3. The future is uncertain, forcing us to think and act infundamentally new (revolutionary!) ways.A. We cannot predict the future in detail.B. In spite of uncertainty, we can still plan and act.C. Rethinking the meaning of “natural.”D. Taking action 1: Adapting to climatic change.E. Taking action 2: Mitigating climatic change.
CONTROLLABLE UNCONTROLLABLE
LOW
HIG
H
Unc
erta
inty
Controllability
Adaptivemanagement
Optimalcontrol
after Peterson et al. 2003, Conserv. Biol.
CONTROLLABLE UNCONTROLLABLE
LOW
HIG
H
Unc
erta
inty
Controllability
Adaptivemanagement
Scenarioplanning
Optimalcontrol
Hedging
after Peterson et al. 2003, Conserv. Biol.
Scenario PlanningWhat is it?
• A tool for long-term strategic planning, when the future is both uncertain and uncontrollable.
Scenarios Are:
• Compelling narratives (stories) of alternative futures in which decisions may be played out.
• Coherent, internally consistent, and plausible.
Courtesy of Leigh Welling, NPS
Scenario PlanningWhat is it NOT?
• A method for arriving at the “most likely” future.
Scenarios Are Not:
• Predictions
• Forecasts
• Strategies
Courtesy of Leigh Welling, NPS
One Dimensional vs. Scenario Planning
One-Dimensional Planning
Outcomes
BA
CD
Scenario Planning
BA
CD
Possible Futures
ElementsCommon to A-BElements
Common to A-CElementsCommon to A-D
Courtesy of Leigh Welling, NPS
One Dimensional vs. Scenario Planning
One-Dimensional Planning
Outcomes
BA
CD
Scenario Planning
BA
CD
Possible Futures
ElementsCommon to A-BElements
Common to A-CElementsCommon to A-D
Courtesy of Leigh Welling, NPS
A ridiculously simple example of scenario planning
Possibleadaptations
to scenario #1:a warmer,
wetter future.
A ridiculously simple example of scenario planning
Possibleadaptations
to scenario #1:a warmer,
wetter future.
Possibleadaptations
to scenario #2:a warmer,
drier future.
A ridiculously simple example of scenario planning
Possibleadaptations
to scenario #1:a warmer,
wetter future.
Possibleadaptations
to scenario #2:a warmer,
drier future.
Consider implementing adaptation strategies that fall
in this zone.
We will need to drop the well-entrenched tradition ofdefining desired future conditions in terms ofprecise targets or ranges of targets (often basedon “natural range of variability” or “historical rangeof variability”)
Instead, we may need to define UNdesired futureconditions – those to avoid (e.g., extinctions;sudden loss of vegetation cover followed bymassive erosion).
Other implications for how we plan:
We will need to drop the well-entrenched tradition ofdefining desired future conditions in terms ofprecise targets or ranges of targets (often basedon “natural range of variability” or “historical rangeof variability”)
Instead, we may need to define UNdesired futureconditions – those to avoid (e.g., extinctions;sudden loss of vegetation cover followed bymassive erosion).
Avoiding undesired future conditions often will meanwe manage for ecosystem resistance andresilience to stresses.
Other implications for how we plan:
Rough water.But rather than
mimic the past, I shall begin to
ADAPT by enhancing
resistance and resilience!
1. Climate change and its effects are here.A. It’s getting warmer.B. Effects of climate change are already evident.C. Profound changes are expected for the future.
2. In the face of unprecedented global changes, pastconditions no longer automatically provide us withsensible management targets for the future.A. Future conditions will have no analog in the past.B. The problem with “back to the future.”
3. The future is uncertain, forcing us to think and act infundamentally new (revolutionary!) ways.A. We cannot predict the future in detail.B. In spite of uncertainty, we can still plan and act.C. Rethinking the meaning of “natural.”D. Taking action 1: Adapting to climatic change.E. Taking action 2: Mitigating climatic change.
The National Park Service’sManagement Policies usesthe word “natural” 566 times,averaging more than 3 timesper page …
So we can still plan … but for WHAT?
The National Park Service’sManagement Policies usesthe word “natural” 566 times,averaging more than 3 timesper page …
… but with climatic change andother global changes, is “natural” dead?
So we can still plan … but for WHAT?
The National Park Service’sManagement Policies usesthe word “natural” 566 times,averaging more than 3 timesper page …
… but with climatic change andother global changes, is “natural” dead?
No, but we need to be muchmore careful and deliberateabout how we think about it.
So we can still plan … but for WHAT?
David ParsonsJohn Randall Nate Stephenson Kathy TonnessenPeter WhiteStephen WoodleyLaurie YungErika Zavaleta
Greg ApletF. Stuart ChapinDavid ColeDavid GraberEric HiggsRichard HobbsPeter LandresConnie Millar
… with thanks to the “Beyond Naturalness” group:
The three axes of “naturalness”
Historical fidelity (e.g., NPS’s “vignettes ofprimitive America” and“historical range ofvariability.”)
High
Low
What is “natural?”
Historical fidelity
Freedom fromintentional
human control
High
Low
(e.g., the Wilderness Act’s “untrammeled”)
What is “natural?”
Historical fidelity
Freedom fromintentional
human control
High
Low
Freedom fromunintended
human influences (such as pollution, invasives, global warming)
What is “natural?”
Historical fidelity
Freedom fromintentional
human controlFreedom fromunintended
human influences (such as pollution, invasives, global warming)
“Natural” by allthree metrics
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
What is “natural?”
Historical fidelity
Freedom fromintentional
human controlFreedom fromunintended
human influences (such as pollution, invasives, global warming)
“Unnatural” by allthree metrics
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
What is “natural?”
Freedom fromintentional
human controlFreedom fromunintended
human influences
Low
In the face of rapid global changes, protected areasmanagers are forced into tradeoffs on a “surface of the possible”
Historical fidelity
(such as pollution, invasives, global warming)
High
High
Freedom fromintentional
human controlFreedom fromunintended
human influences
Low
Historical fidelity
(such as pollution, invasives, global warming)
Favoring “vignettesof primitive America”over “untrammeled”
High
High
Freedom fromintentional
human controlFreedom fromunintended
human influences
Low
Historical fidelity
(such as pollution, invasives, global warming)
High
High
Favoring “untrammeled”over “vignettes ofprimitive America”
Freedom fromintentional
human controlFreedom fromunintended
human influences
Low
Historical fidelity
(such as pollution, invasives, global warming)
High
High
As unintended human influences (global changes) come todominate, the range of available tradeoffs keeps shrinking …
Freedom fromintentional
human controlFreedom fromunintended
human influences
Low
Historical fidelity
(such as pollution, invasives, global warming)
High
High
… and ecosystem inertia, or management efforts to maintain highhistorical fidelity, could lead to inherently unstable conditions ...
Inherently unstable …at risk of sudden,
catastrophic change.
Stable
Freedom fromintentional
human controlFreedom fromunintended
human influences
Low
Historical fidelity
(such as pollution, invasives, global warming)
High
High
Inherently unstable …at risk of sudden,
catastrophic change.
Stable
… with the corollary that efforts to maintain biotic communitieswith high historical fidelity will eventually become futile.
(1) Protected areas managers will be forced to chooseamong tradeoffs, choosing to emphasize one aspect(axis) of naturalness over another.
(2) Ecosystem inertia in a rapidly-changing environmentcould lead to unstable conditions and the sudden, catastrophic loss of some of the very values we soughtto preserve.
(3) Trying to maintain conditions beyond their new bounds of stability could lead to the sudden, catastrophic loss of some of the very values we sought to preserve.
(4) Efforts to maintain “natural” (historical) bioticcommunities will likely become counterproductive, if notimpossible.
Summary: Consequences of rapidglobal changes to “naturalness”
1. Climate change and its effects are here.A. It’s getting warmer.B. Effects of climate change are already evident.C. Profound changes are expected for the future.
2. In the face of unprecedented global changes, pastconditions no longer automatically provide us withsensible management targets for the future.A. Future conditions will have no analog in the past.B. The problem with “back to the future.”
3. The future is uncertain, forcing us to think and act infundamentally new (revolutionary!) ways.A. We cannot predict the future in detail.B. In spite of uncertainty, we can still plan and act.C. Rethinking the meaning of “natural.”D. Taking action 1: Adapting to climatic change.E. Taking action 2: Mitigating climatic change.
Step 1: redefining goals for Wilderness.
a. “Let it be,” and knowingly accept theconsequences. By default, this approachmay dominate large areas.
Freedom fromintentional
human controlFreedom fromunintended
human influences
Low
Historical fidelity
(such as pollution, invasives, global warming)
High
High
The reality of managing huge landscapes is thatlarge areas may receive little intentional human intervention.
Step 1: redefining goals for Wilderness.
a. “Let it be,” and knowingly accept theconsequences. By default, this approachmay dominate large areas.
b. In strategically chosen areas, actively manage to maintain regional native biodiversity and key ecosystem functions.
To accomplish the latter, we may haveto start doing things that currently
would make us cringe.(I don’t necessary advocate what follows …
I’m just trying to provoke discussion.)
Probably won’t goextinct (though may
still suffer).CONTINGENCY PLAN:Monitor, and continuemanaging bear-human
interactions.But I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.
(2) Create triage lists, with possible actions.
May be in bigtrouble without
our help.CONTINGENCY PLANS:
(1) assisted migrationupslope,
(2) drip irrigation inselected areas.
Courtesy of Scott Anderson, NAU
Doomed,at least within
the park or region.CONTINGENCY PLANS:
(1) identify northern mountainparks willing to accept this
displaced native, or(2) leave it to fend for itself,and consciously accept the
consequences.
... but I’m so
CUTE!
Credit: Quincy Library Group
Examples of reconsidering the pariahs:Purposely over-thin forests to increase
resistance and resilience?
+
=Florida Panther Mountain Lion
Improved adaptive potential in the face of an uncertain future?
Examples of reconsidering the pariahs:Mix gene pools to increase adaptive potential?
1. Climate change and its effects are here.A. It’s getting warmer.B. Effects of climate change are already evident.C. Profound changes are expected for the future.
2. In the face of unprecedented global changes, pastconditions no longer automatically provide us withsensible management targets for the future.A. Future conditions will have no analog in the past.B. The problem with “back to the future.”
3. The future is uncertain, forcing us to think and act infundamentally new (revolutionary!) ways.A. We cannot predict the future in detail.B. In spite of uncertainty, we can still plan and act.C. Rethinking the meaning of “natural.”D. Taking action 1: Adapting to climatic change.E. Taking action 2: Mitigating climatic change.
Mitigation: How can we slow climatic changes?
Managers of federal lands and waters may soon be held accountable for their ecosystems’ carbon (C) balances. The result is likely to be attempts to use ecosystems as giant sponges to sop up CO2.
Mitigation: How can we slow climatic changes?
Managers of federal lands and waters may soon be held accountable for their ecosystems’ carbon (C) balances. The result is likely to be attempts to use ecosystems as giant sponges to sop up CO2.
But rather than focusing on increasing C sequestration, in many cases we more realistically need to focus on reducing losses of C that is already sequestered.
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Mor
talit
y ra
te (%
yr-1
)
van Mantgem et al. 2009
Are we already losing C in “pristine” old-growth forests?
Hurteau et al. 2008, Front. Ecol. Env.
GAINED after a prescribed fire:Increased resistance to sudden loss of the
remaining biomass.
1. Climate change and its effects are here.
2. In the face of unprecedented global changes, pastconditions no longer automatically provide us withsensible management targets for the future.
3. The future is uncertain, forcing us to think and act infundamentally new (revolutionary!) ways.
SUMMARY: