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NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems NOAA NOAA s s Coral Reef Watch: Coral Reef Watch: Global Satellite Component of CREIOS Al Strong (NOAA/NESDIS) C. Mark Eakin (NOAA/NESDIS) Jessica Morgan (NOAA/NESDIS, IMSG) Tyler Christensen (NOAA, IMSG) Gang Liu (NOAA/NESDIS, STG) Dwight Gledhill (NOAA/NESDIS, Knauss Fellow) William Skirving (NOAA/NESDIS, QSEC) Scott Heron (NOAA/NESDIS, QSEC) NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/SO and Coral Reef Conservation Program (CRCP) NOAA Coral Matrix Silver Spring, Maryland
Transcript
Page 1: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems

NOAANOAA’’ss Coral Reef Watch:Coral Reef Watch:Global Satellite Component of CREIOS

Al Strong (NOAA/NESDIS)C. Mark Eakin (NOAA/NESDIS)Jessica Morgan (NOAA/NESDIS, IMSG)Tyler Christensen (NOAA, IMSG)Gang Liu (NOAA/NESDIS, STG)Dwight Gledhill (NOAA/NESDIS, Knauss Fellow)William Skirving (NOAA/NESDIS, QSEC)Scott Heron (NOAA/NESDIS, QSEC)

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/SOand

Coral Reef Conservation Program (CRCP)NOAA Coral Matrix

Silver Spring, Maryland

Page 2: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

Presentation Outline• NOAA Coral Reef Watch – Mission and Challenges• Research Impetus

– Impact of rising CO2 on ocean chemistry– Potential threat to marine calcifiers

• Reef Calcification Index (RCI) – Product Development– Calcification and its effect on ‘reef water’ CO2– Modeling pCO2 from space

• Proof of Concept: Caribbean Sea• Next Steps• Application and Stakeholders• Significance, Mission Goal, Cross-Cutting Priorities

Page 3: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

The Mission:The mission of NOAA's Coral Reef Watch Program is to utilize remote sensing and in-situ tools for near real-time and long term monitoring, modeling and reporting of physical environmental conditions of coral reef ecosystems. Coral Reef Watch aims to assist in the management, study and assessment of impacts of environmental change on coral reef ecosystems.

Page 4: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

Value of Reefs • Seafood: $247 million in commercial fishing on U.S. reef fish• New medicines: cancer research, bone grafts, antivirals• Other products: jewelry• Recreation: $17 billion in U.S. tourism• Coastal protection: buffer from wave action and the impact of storms

Global Decline:• 1/3 world’s reefs severely damaged (U.S. COP)• 50 – 60% may be lost in 30 years (U.S. COP)• ‘97-’98 El Niño mass bleaching event (16% global mortality)• ’05 Caribbean Sea bleaching event (15 – 16 weeks!)

Why Do We Care?

One kilometer of reef valued at between $137,000 to almost $1.2 million!

Page 5: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

NOAA Caribbean Bleaching Response Effort• A major coral bleaching event is underway in the Caribbean• Thermal stress reached record levels, exceeding 15 Degree Heating Weeks (DHWs) at some sites

Bleaching report data for July-November 2005

Location Percent Bleached

Bahamas 16-75Belize 1-77British Virgin Islands 90-100

Trinidad and Tobago 6-100

US Virgin Islands 10-100

Complied from more than 400 bleaching observations obtained from Coral Reef Watch, ReefBase, Coral List, and other sources

US Florida 3-80

Colombia 1-90Cuba 8-75Jamaica 20-80Mexico 1-50Panama 70

US Puerto Rico 50-75US Texas 35-100

Venezuela 21

• NOAA Coral Reef Watch Satellite Bleaching Alert (SBA) monitoring system first alerted possible bleaching conditions:

– Florida Keys in late Aug.– Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands in early Oct.

• The DHW and SBA products have been invaluable to researchers and managers who have redirected efforts to monitor the resulting bleaching.

• NESDIS is leading an international effort to fully document the extent of the bleaching event.

Page 6: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

Stressors to Coral Reefs

• Thermal stress• Eustatic sea level rise• Nutrient stress• UVB stress• Salinity stress• Siltation stress• Carbonate mineral saturation state

Page 7: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

Rising Levels of Ocean Carbon Dioxide

Total oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 of approximately 118±19 Pg C between 1800 and 1994.

Page 8: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

Ocean ‘Acidification’

pH

CO32-

CO2(aq)

Wolf-Gladrow et al., 1999

www.niwascience

→+ OHCO 22−+ + 3HCOH32COH →

−−+ →+ 323 HCOCOH

−− ⇔++ 32232 2HCOOHCOCO

Net:

Page 9: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

Projected Changes in Saturation State

2060 – 2069pCO2 = 517 ppmv

> 43.5 - 43 – 3.5< 3No Data

Aragonite saturation state

Saturation state in the tropics may decrease by 30% over the next century

with a proportional reduction in calcification rates

NCAR Community Climate System Model CCSM v 1.0IPCC SRES B2 scenario

Guinotte et al., 2003

Page 10: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

Impact on Marine Calcifiers

1 2 3 4 5-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Langdon et al. (2004)

Cal

cific

atio

n R

ate

(mm

ol m

-2 h

-1)

Saturation State (Ωaragonite)

present

BIOSPHERE II Coral Reef Mesocosm

Decrease in calcification rate!

Weaker skeletonsReduced extension ratesIncreased susceptibility to erosionSubmersion

Page 11: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

18-20 April 2005USGS Center for Coastal and Watershed Studies

St. Petersburg, Florida30 June 2005

Identified priority research areas and recommended approaches from small-scale laboratory experiments to large-scale field experiments, and modeling.

Page 12: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

•• The RCI couples remote sensing and The RCI couples remote sensing and in situin situ observations of carbon dioxide partial pressureobservations of carbon dioxide partial pressure(pCO2) to monitor changes in reef community structure.(pCO2) to monitor changes in reef community structure.

••Monitoring the balance between organic carbon and calcium carbonMonitoring the balance between organic carbon and calcium carbonate production, the RCI ate production, the RCI reflects ecosystemreflects ecosystem--level changes and reef responses to a series of environmental stlevel changes and reef responses to a series of environmental stresses resses including ocean acidification.including ocean acidification.

• The RCI adds to the suite of CRW products, providing an importanThe RCI adds to the suite of CRW products, providing an important tool in monitoring coral t tool in monitoring coral reef response to mounting environmental stresses related to climreef response to mounting environmental stresses related to climate change.ate change.

( )WindsColorSSTfpCO ,,Offshore2 = waterReef

2pCO

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

May June July Aug. Sept.

RC

I

CalcificationCalcification

No metabolic effectNo metabolic effect

Organic carbon Organic carbon productionproduction

Reef Patch Reef

The Reef Calcification Index (RCI)Offshore2

waterReef2 pCOpCORCI −=

Page 13: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

Dissolution2222 OOCHOHCO +↔+

Photosynthesis Respiration

Southern and Central GBR370

360

350

340

330

320lagoon lagoon lagoon

offshore offshore

atm

pCO

2

Coral Reef Impact on CO2

Kawahata, 2000

22332 2 COOHCaCOHCOCa ++↔++

Calcification

H2O

Page 14: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

• Magnitude controlled:– Net primary productivity

versus calcification (ROI)– Coral cover– Mean water depth– Hydrographic processes

Reef Calcification Index (R.C.I)

Reef Water Offshore

OL pCOpCOpCO ,2,22 −=δ

A positive R.C.I. indicates robust

calcification

Page 15: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

CO2

CO32- HCO3

- phyto

AtmosphereWindspCO2(atm)

Mix

ed L

ayer

Bottom Layer

Depth of the Euphotic Zone

INKINUU

MM ++=

qrs ×

Chl

Pexp.

ZM

ZE

INTCTATS

TC;TA;INLouanchi, Metzl, Poisson (1996)

Mechanistic pCO2 Model• Physical and biogeochemical

processes constrained by monthly variations of:

– Sea surface temperature– Chlorophyll concentration– Wind speed– Salinity– Mixed-layer depth

SatelliteRemote Sensing

NODC Monthly Climatology

• Monthly 2°x 2° sea surface pCO2fields in the Indian Ocean where the model seeks to account for:

– Air-sea exchange– Thermodynamic effects– Biological activity– Mixing processes

Page 16: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

Algorithm developmentpCO2 = f(SST,lat,lon)

Offshore Shipboard sampling pCO2, SST

Caribbean Sea pCO21° x 1°, Weekly

Satellite SST data

Olsen et. al. (2004)

Statistical pCO2 Model

• 2002 – present• East – West tracks• Sea Keeper pCO2 sys.• Thermosalinograph

Page 17: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

AOML Caribbean Sea pCO2 Model

Box plots of residuals between pCO2 determined from remotely sensed SST data and bin-averaged pCO2 data from the Explorer.

2002: pCO2sw =10.18 SST+ 0.5249 lat - 0.2921 lon + 52.19, n = 40204, rms = 5.7 µatm, r2= 0.87

• Low spatial resolution using Reynolds (1ox1o)• Yearly drift in SST slope related to changes in atm. CO2.• Not provided NRT• Lat & Lon dependence

Olsen et. al., (2004)

Page 18: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

Ship observations of temperature and pCO2were assembled into weekly 0.25 degree binned averages from March 2002 through October 2005

Data for the dry atmospheric mole fraction of CO2 (XCO2) were provided by the NOAA/CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gasses (CCGG) Group flask sampling program. –T.J. Conway

Weekly mean values were linearly regressed to obtain the latitudinal XCO2 gradient.

2002 2003 2004 2005

370

380

390

XC

O2

Year

Key Biscayne, Florida Ragged Point, Barbados

22 24 26 28 30 32-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

pCO

2,aq

-XC

O2,

atm

Temperature (oC)

CRW Caribbean Sea pCO2 Model

+

=n Adj-r2 RMS

17582 0.81 8.27

Page 19: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

CRW Caribbean Sea pCO2 Model

• The offshore pCO2 can be obtained from:

( )6.255.12

81.1031.303 ,2,2,22 −×

−++×+−= Lat

xCOxCOxCOSSTpCO RPBKEY

Key

Local atmospheric CO2 term-NOAA/CMDL CCGG

Sea Surface Temperature- Satellite SST product

Page 20: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

CRW Caribbean Sea pCO2 Model

• Multi-satellite, multi-sensor• Daily at ~25 km resolution• Cloud penetrating• Day & Night ‘normalized’ to

daily minimum SST (~8 AM)• NRT validated and bias

corrected using in situ obs.• Optimally Interpolated

– Reynolds & Smith (1994)Microwave OI SST data are produced by Remote Sensing Systems and sponsored by the NASA Earth Science Physical Oceanography Program and the NASA REASoN DISCOVER Project. Data are available at www.remss.com.

Instrument Platform Launched Orbit Coverage

TMI TRMM Nov 1997 Equatorial (35°) 40N to 40S

AMSR-E Aqua May 2002 Near Polar Global

Page 21: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

Evaluation of computed pCO2 fields

Weekly Residual (Model vs Ship observation)

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2002

2002

.21

2002

.42

2002

.63

2002

.85

2003

.06

2003

.27

2003

.48

2003

.69

2003

.9

2004

.12

2004

.33

2004

.54

2004

.75

2004

.96

2005

.17

2005

.38

2005

.6

2005

.81

Year

Mod

el B

ias

atm

)

320 340 360 380 400 420320

340

360

380

400

420

Ship

Obs

erva

tions

pC

O2 (μa

tm)

Model pCO2 (μatm)

Slope Adj-r2 RMS

1.004±0.006 0.69 10.2

Winter Winter Winter

Summer Summer

• Model performs best in summer months• Consistent bias in winter

Page 22: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

2 Sept. 2005

280 282 284 286 288350360370380390400410420430440450460470480490500510520

Model pCO2 N. Normans Reef

pCO2 (μatm)

Longitude

pCO

2(μ

atm

)

CREWSSAMI pCO2

Proof of Concept:N. Normans Reef, BahamasMay – September 2005

Page 23: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

N. Normans Reef Prelim. Results

140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

RC

I (μa

tm)

Day of the year

Fanning AtollPalau

0

2

4

6

8

10D

HW

(deg

ree

wee

ks)

Bermuda

• Early summer – values similar to other

previous studies.• Mid-summer

– DHW’s begin accumulating– RCI values trend up

• Similar increases were observed in Palau prior to ’97-’98 bleaching event (Kayanne,2005)

• Late summer– SAMI-pCO2 fails– DHW’s continue to climb– Coral bleaching evolves

throughout the Caribbean

Page 24: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

CO2

CO32- HCO3

- phyto

AtmosphereWindspCO2(atm)

Mix

ed L

ayer

Bottom Layer

Depth of the Euphotic Zone

INKINUU

MM ++=

qrs ×

Chl

Pexp.

ZM

ZE

INTCTATS

TC;TA;INLouanchi, Metzl, Poisson (1996)

CO2

CO32- HCO3

- phytoCO2

CO32- HCO3

-

CO2

CO32- HCO3

- phytophyto

AtmosphereWindspCO2(atm)

Mix

ed L

ayer

Bottom Layer

Depth of the Euphotic Zone

INKINUU

MM ++=

qrs ×

Chl

Pexp.

ZM

ZE

INTCTATS

TC;TA;INLouanchi, Metzl, Poisson (1996)

The Future of R.C.I.• Improved Caribbean pCO2 Model (FY06)

– Air-sea exchange (QuickSCAT), Biological (Color)• Additional Caribbean Sites (CREWS)(FY06)• Hydrographic model (FY07)• Expansion to Non-Caribbean Sites (FY08)

– Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI)– South shore of Oahu, HI– Palau– Bermuda

-Joaquin A. Trinanes

Page 25: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

Applications and Stakeholders• Coral Reef Management

– Long term monitoring of system level carbon budget– Real time monitoring overall reef health

• Academic– Hypothesis testing– Global carbon budget (source/sink)

• Government– Climate Observations and Services Program– Global Carbon Cycle Program– Coral Reef Conservation Program

Page 26: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

NOAA’s Strategic PlanSignificance:• NOAA’s CRW and the newly formed

Coral Reef Ecosystem Integrated Observing System (CREIOS) are at the forefront of truly integrated research observations, spanning domestic and international arenas.

• Development of an R.C.I. product can serve the mission of CRW and can be used by managers, academics and government agencies to monitor environmental stresses to coral reefs.

NOAA Mission Goals:• Protect, restore and manage the use

of coastal and ocean resources through ecosystem-based management.

• Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond. Serve society’s needs for weather and water information.

NOAA Cross-Cutting Priorities• Integrated global environmental

observation and data management• Sound, state-of-the art research

Matrix and Collaboration Opportunities• NOAA/OAR/AOML• National Center for Caribbean Coral

Reef Research (NCORE), RSMAS• NGO’s (Conservation International)• NOAA/OAR/PMEL

Page 27: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

Summary & Final Remarks• In response to growing concerns over ‘ocean acidification’, NOAA

CRW is developing a Reef Calcification Index (RCI).• The RCI can serve as a feasible and low cost monitoring tool and

compliment the suite of current NOAA CRW products. • Sustained monitoring of the RCI at select reef communities should

yield insight into changes in reef community structure.• Short term variability in the RCI may prove an important bioindicator

of acute coral stress (e.g. bleaching).• Further improvements to the pCO2 model are actively being

investigated (air-sea exchange, biological activity)• Expansion to other sites within the Caribbean could be achieved

with little additional cost.• With refinement and additional in situ resources the RCI can be

expanded outside the Caribbean

Page 28: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef ... · NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems ... Complied from more than 400 bleaching ... –

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