NOAA Fisheries Draft Climate

Science Strategy

Council Briefing | January 2015

Outline

• Growing demands and requirements for climate-related information. WHY

• Increase the production, delivery and use of climate-related information to support agency and stakeholder decisions.

GOAL

• Provide input on the draft Strategy and future Regional Action Plans. REQUEST

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2

Our Changing Oceans

• Climate change and ocean acidification are

profoundly altering ocean ecosystems.

• Negative impacts expected for fisheries

globally.

• Positive impacts expected in high latitudes.

• Other stressors exacerbate impacts.

• Significant challenges for resource

management in changing conditions.

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3

Growing Challenges

for Resource Management

Drought impacts

Thermal stress

Sea ice changes

Rising Seas Ocean Acidification

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4

Social

Economic

Impacts

Biological

Impacts

Physical

Chemical

Impacts

Climate

Changes

ocean

temperature

sea level

ocean

acidification

Sea ice

Δ freshwater

temperature

Atmospheric

Carbon

Dioxide

Δ productivity

Δ species

abundance

Δ community

composition

Δ species

distribution

Δ phenology&

survivorship

Δ industries

Δ subsistence

use

Δ revenues &

economies

Δ fishing

activities

Possible Impacts of A Changing Climate?

Δ

precipitation

Δ community

health

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5

Some Implications for Fisheries Management?

Climate Change and Variability

Ecosystem Impacts Ecosystem Productivity

Habitats Species Interactions

Population Impacts Productivity (G, M, R, Mat)

Distribution

Stock Identification

Spatial Allocations

Bycatch / Discards

MMPA / ESA Interactions

Access to Emerging Stocks

Community Resilience

Biological Control Rules

Harvest Levels

Rebuilding Plans

Valuation / Sustainability

Business Plans

Economic Viability

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6

Fishery Impacts

Key Information Requirements

1850 1900 1950 200053

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

Year

Tem

pe

ratu

re ( F

)

Northeast U.S. Marine Ecosystem

Mean Annual Temperature

West Atlantic SST

WHAT IS CHANGING? WHY IS IT CHANGING?

HOW WILL IT CHANGE? HOW TO RESPOND?

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7

Observed or Projected Climate-related Changes in U.S. Marine

Ecosystems

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8

• Temperature increasing

• Salinity decreasing

• Ocean acidification

• Wind patterns changing

• Precipitation increasing

• Streamflow increasing

• Lake ice out earlier

• Nutrients changing

• Sea level rising

• And more ….

Climate Change – a long-term change in part of the

land-atmosphere-ocean system

Northeast Climate-related Issues

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9

Observed or Projected Changes in

Oceanography

Ocean temperature: 1854-2010 +1.2oC

2006-2055 +1.2oC

Salinity: 1977-2011 -0.4 psu

2006-2055 -0.1 psu

Sea Level: 1977-2009 +0.4 feet

by 2100 +3-6 feet

Ocean Acidification: 1980-2009 -0.04 pH

2006-2055 -0.08 pH

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10

Changes in Marine Resources

• SNE-MA Yellowtail, cold pool volume, &

recruitment

• Northern shrimp thermal considerations for

distribution & productivity

• Croaker thermal relationship w/ recruitment,

productivity and projected distribution

• Cod thermal and zooplankton relationships w/

recruitment, productivity and projected distribution

• Distribution change for 30+ spp.,

• Productivity change for 15+ spp.

• Does not include ecological interactions

• There are other examples from the NE

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11

Implications for NE Fishing Communities?

• Fisheries are complicated: sectors, gears, permits, etc.

• Interactions with climate change will be complicated

Lobster distribution

Lobster landings

Pin

sky a

nd F

ogarty

2012

What is at risk? What are responses?

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 12

Outline

• Growing demands and requirements for climate-related information. WHY

• Increase the production, delivery and use of climate-related information to support agency and stakeholder decisions.

GOAL

• Provide input on the draft Strategy and future Regional Action Plans. REQUEST

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 13

Draft Climate Science Strategy

• Increase the production, delivery and use of climate-related information to support NMFS and stakeholder decisions.

Goal

• Identifies 7 key objectives to meet NMFS information requirements for resource management in a changing climate.

Content

• Help guide development of NMFS science enterprise at national to regional levels (e.g., regional action plans).

Intended use

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14

How do we improve the

production, delivery and use

of climate-related information

required to fulfill NMFS mission?

Management Advice

Information Review

Synthesis, Analysis & Modeling

Observations & Data

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 15

Eff

ective

Re

so

urc

e M

ana

ge

me

nt

Ocean Resource Management Process

Management Advice

Information Review

Synthesis, Analysis & Modeling

Observations & Data

450+ Fisheries Species

117 Marine Mammals & 93 ESA species

2000+ Habitat Actions

200 + Aquaculture actions

100 + NEPA actions & 11 LMEs

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 16

Draft Climate Science Strategy

Science Infrastructure to Produce and Deliver Actionable Information

Status, Trends and Early Warnings

Information on Mechanisms of Change

Robust Projections of Future Conditions

Adaptive Management Processes

Robust Management

Strategies

Climate-Informed

Reference Points

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 17

Draft Climate Science Strategy

Identify appropriate, climate-informed reference points. Objective 1

Identify robust management strategies. Objective 2

Implement adaptive decision processes that respond to changing climate conditions.

Objective 3

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 18

Draft Climate Science Strategy

Identify appropriate, climate-informed reference points. Objective 1

Identify robust management strategies. Objective 2

Implement adaptive decision processes that respond to changing climate conditions.

Objective 3

Identify likely future states to plan for.

Objective 4

Identify mechanisms of climate effects to improve projections and responses.

Objective 5

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 19

Draft Climate Science Strategy

Identify appropriate, climate-informed reference points. Objective 1

Identify robust management strategies. Objective 2

Implement adaptive decision processes that respond to changing climate conditions.

Objective 3

Identify likely future states to plan for. Objective 4

Identify mechanisms of climate effects to improve projections and responses. Objective 5

Track trends and provide early warnings of change. Objective 6

Strengthen the science infrastructure required to fill these needs. Objective 7

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 20

Recommendations

Priority Near-term Actions

1 Conduct LMR climate vulnerability analyses in each region.

2 Maintain and develop Ecosystem Status Reports to track change and provide early-warnings.

3 Increase capacity to conduct climate-informed Management Strategy Evaluations

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 21

Recommendations

Priority Near-term Actions

1 Conduct LMR climate vulnerability analyses in each region.

2 Maintain and develop Ecosystem Status Reports to track change and provide early-warnings.

3 Increase capacity to conduct climate-informed Management Strategy Evaluations

progress

progress

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 22

Recommendations

Short term (6-24 months)

1 Complete region-level action plans.

2 Strengthen climate-related science capacity nation-wide.

3 Increase resources for process-oriented research.

4 Establish climate-ready terms of reference for ESA, MSFCMA, MMPA stock assessments and Biological Opinions, etc.

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 23

Outline

• Growing demands and requirements for climate-related information. WHY

• Increase the production, delivery and use of climate-related information to support agency and stakeholder decisions.

GOAL

• Provide input on the draft Strategy and future Regional Action Plans. REQUEST

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 24

Request for Input

1. Climate Science Strategy

• Input requested thru March 31.

2. Regional Action Plans

• To be developed in 2015.

• Future call for input on regional needs & priorities.

www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/ecosystems/climate

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 25

Summary

• Growing demands and requirements for climate-related information. WHY

• Increase the production, delivery and use of climate-related information to support agency and stakeholder decisions.

GOAL

• Provide input on the draft Strategy and future Regional Action Plans. REQUEST

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 26

Thank you!

www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/ecosystems/climate

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 27