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© OECD/IEA 2011
Secure and Sustainable Energy Future
TBLI ConferenceSeptember 2011Nobuo TANAKA
The context: A time of unprecedented uncertainty…The context: A time of unprecedented uncertainty… The worst of the global economic crisis appears to be over – but is
the recovery sustainable? Oil demand & supply are becoming less sensitive to price – what
does this mean for future price movements ? Natural gas markets are in the midst of a revolution – will it herald a
golden era for gas? Copenhagen Accord & G-20 subsidy reforms are key advances – but
do they go far enough & will they be fully implemented ? Emerging economies will shape the global energy future – where
will their policy decisions lead us ? Tightening oil market plus political unrest in producing regions –
how vulnerable is the market to even small disruptions? What is the energy landscape post Fukushima nuclear accident?
Oil prices affect the global economyOil prices affect the global economy
Oil price spikes have preceded each global recession since the early 1970’s
Annual expenditure on net imports of oilAnnual expenditure on net imports of oil
If oil prices average US$100 a barrel in 2011, spending on oil imports in many countries will reach or surpass the record levels of 2008
* Projections made prior to events of 11 March
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0
100
200
300
400
500
US EU J apan China India
Bill
ion
dol
lars
(200
9) 1971-2008 average
2008
2011
Share of GDP (right axis)
Need for cooperation during oil supply Need for cooperation during oil supply disruptionsdisruptions
IEA stockholding cover of global oil demand
Growing share of non-OECD oil demand results in declining global demand cover from IEA oil stocks
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
days
of
wor
ld o
il de
man
d co
ver
% sh
are
of w
orld
oil
dem
and
IEA 90 days of stockholding, share of world demand with Chinawith Indiawith ASEANShare of non-OECD in global oil demand
The Future of Nuclear Power after FukushimaThe Future of Nuclear Power after Fukushima
Recent projections for growth in nuclear capacity may now be viewed as optimistic
An increasing number of plants may be retired early due to more stringent safety regulations
Life extensions for older plants may become less common Investment may be delayed or deferred
> Investment to replace the aging fleet in OECD> Investment in emerging economies to meet rising base-load demand
Costs of new nuclear plants may increase Countries pursuing new nuclear power programs may face
difficulties> Including Indonesia, Thailand & possibly some Middle East countries
Nuclear construction shifting to developing countriesNuclear construction shifting to developing countriesNuclear reactor construction starts, 1954-2011
Today, 30 countries operate 441 nuclear reactors, 82% being in OECD countries. However, new construction is overwhelmingly in non-OECD countries, where 55 of the 67 new reactors were being built.
Lower-Nuclear Case: implications for electricity Lower-Nuclear Case: implications for electricity generation from nucleargeneration from nuclear
Lower Nuclear case means 1) Higher Electricity Prices, 2) Less Security and 3) Less Sustainable.
Post Fukushima: New Energy Security of the 21 C
Lower-Nuclear Case: Lower-Nuclear Case: implications for the fuel miximplications for the fuel mix
The Lower-Nuclear Case would push up demand for coal, natural gas & renewables, and have a corresponding knock-on effect on energy prices
Increase of coal-, gas- and renewables-based electricity generation in 2035 compared with the New Policies Scenario
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Coal Gas Renewables
130 Mtce
80 bcm
460 TWh
Lower-Nuclear Case: Lower-Nuclear Case: implications for CO2 emissionsimplications for CO2 emissions
The growth in emissions from the power sector in 2008-2035 is almost 30% higher in the Lower-Nuclear Case than in the New Policies Scenario
Growth in CO2 emissions from power generation compared to current levels
New Policies Scenario
Lower-Nuclear Case 0.5 Gt
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Gt
Germany: Additional 16BCM of Natural Gas Germany: Additional 16BCM of Natural Gas Import will be needed. It may Compromise Import will be needed. It may Compromise European Energy Security and Susrtainability.European Energy Security and Susrtainability.
German electricity mix with 10% demand reduction, no nuclear, 35% renewables and CO2 at the target level
twh
Japan : Power Grid Market Reform is neededJapan : Power Grid Market Reform is needed and interconnection to Korea and Russia and interconnection to Korea and Russia
Source: 資源エネルギー庁、電気事業連合会、電力系統利用協議会、 IEA算定
Tokyo
Hokkaido
Tohoku
HokurikuKansaiChugoku
Kyushu
Shikoku
ChubuOkinawa
Hydro
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Coal
Other
Power utility company
Generating company
In-house generation
““Golden Age of Gas” ScenarioGolden Age of Gas” Scenario
World primary energy demand by fuel in the GAS Scenario
Gas overtakes coal before 2030 and meets one quarter of global energy demand by 2035 – demand grows by 2% annually, compared with just 1.2% for total energy
Other renewables
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
Oil
Gas
Coal
Biomass
Nuclear
Hydro
2035
Growing role of Gas in Energy Security
Consumption grows most in developing economiesConsumption grows most in developing economies
Increase in natural gas consumption in the GAS scenario, 2010-2035
Non-OECD countries account for 80% of demand growth – China alone makes up nearly 30% of global growth & uses as much gas as the EU by 2035
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Rest of the world
Africa
Russia
Latin America
India
Middle East
OECD total
China
bcm
Production of unconventional gas becomes widespread Production of unconventional gas becomes widespread
Largest gas producers in the GAS Scenario, 2035
Unconventional gas supplies 40% of the 1.8 tcm increase in gas demand to 2035, making up nearly one quarter of total production
0 200 400 600 800 1 000
Turkmenistan
Saudi Arabia
Australia
Algeria
Canada
Qatar
Iran
China
United States
Russia Conventional
Unconventional
bcm
CO2 emissions drop, but only slightlyCO2 emissions drop, but only slightly
CO2 emissions in the GAS Scenario compared with the New Policies Scenario, 2035
CO2 emissions are just 160 Mt lower than in the New Policies Scenario in 2035. Substitution of coal & oil by gas cuts emissions by 740 Mt, but this is largely offset by other effects
34.0
34.5
35.0
35.5
36.0
36.5
NewPolicies
Scenario
GASScenario
Gt
Less nuclear
Less renewables
Higher energy demand
Increase due to:
Reduction due to:
Substitution of coal & oil by gas
Renewable electricity is vital in all scenariosRenewable electricity is vital in all scenarios
Global electricity from RE increases from 3 800 TWh (2008) to 14 500 TWh (2035) in the 450 Scenario
45% RE share
0
3 000
6 000
9 000
12 000
15 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
450 Scenario
23% RE share Current Policies Scenario
33% RE shareLower Nuclear Case
New Policies Scenario
32% RE share
Renewables enter the mainstream…. Renewables enter the mainstream….
The use of renewable energy triples between 2008 & 2035, driven by the power sector where their share in electricity supply rises from 19% in 2008 to 32% in 2035
Renewable primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario
0 100 200 300 400
European Union
United States
China
Brazil
India
Africa
OECD Pacific
Mtoe
2008
2035
Energy mix as Energy Security MixEnergy mix as Energy Security Mix
Nuclear is an important option for countries with limited indigenous energy resources (low energy sustainability).
Self sufficiency =inland production / tpes (2010 estimates)
Energy Self-sufficiency rates of selected countries
The 450 Scenario: The 450 Scenario: Abatement by technologyAbatement by technology
In moving from the New Policies Scenario to the 450 Scenario, more expensive abatement options such as CCS play a growing role
World energy-related CO2 emission savings by technology in the 450 Scenario relative to the New
Policies Scenario
20
25
30
35
40
45
2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Gt
Efficiency 50%
Renewables 18%
Biofuels 4%
Nuclear 9%
CCS 20%
Share of cumulative abatement
between 2010-2035
42.6 Gt
35.4 Gt
21.7 Gt
Current Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
New Policies Scenario
13.7 Gt
7.1 Gt
Sustainability Constraint
Low Nuclear : +0.5GtHigh Gas : -0.2Gt
Number of people without access to electricity (million)Number of people without access to electricity (million)
Today, there are 1.4 billion people lacking access to electricity. Based on current trends, 1.2 billion people – or 15% of the world’s population – will still lack access in 2030
Energy Poverty ; Another sustainability Problem
Implications for Japan and Emerging EconomiesImplications for Japan and Emerging Economies Japan
Regional energy security framework is key for future competitiveness
Further develop energy efficiency, renewables, grid interconnection, smart grid and electric vehicles.
Safe nuclear remains important option. Turn lessons in to global asset.
Emerging Economies like India
Ensure energy security while addressing rapid growth and energy access issue.
Develop new energy policy model for emerging economies by promoting energy efficiency while avoiding heavy dependence on coal and phasing out fossil fuel subsidies.
Common challenge
New Comprehensive Energy Security Framework for the 21st Century.
Work together towards low carbon future: Global Financial mechanisms, transparent energy market, and cutting edge technology on energy efficiency, nuclear, renewables, CCS and Advanced Vehicles.