IEA © OECD/IEA 2017
Nordic EV Outlook 2018
© OECD/IEA 2017
• Government-to-government forum comprising 13 countries
• Currently co-chaired by Canada, China and the United States*, and coordinated by the IEA
• Released several analytical publications (Global EV Outlook, Nordic EV Outlook, City casebook)
• Instrumental to mobilize action and commitments (Paris Declaration on Electro-Mobility and Climate Change at COP21, Government Fleet Declaration at COP22)
New project in preparation with the Global Environment Facility and UNEP for support to EV policy-making
Launched the EV30@30 Campaign in June 2017, aiming to achieve a 30% market share for EVs by 2030
Building of the Pilot City Programme network of cities (launch at CEM9, Copenhagen, 24 May)
Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI)
*U.S. co-leadership under review
EV30@30
supporters:
© OECD/IEA 2017
Electric mobility is breaking records, but policy support remains critical
The Nordic electric car fleet reached almost 250 000 units in circulation last year.
More than 70% of the electric cars circulating in the Nordic region are located in Norway.
Nordic electric car fleet
© OECD/IEA 2017
New electric car registrations almost 90 000 units in 2017
2017 new electric car sales and market share increased in all Nordic countries but in Denmark.
BEVs prevail in Norway and Denmark, while Finland, Iceland and Sweden buy more PHEVs.
Electric car sales, market share, and BEV and PHEV sales, 2010-17
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
12
24
36
48
60
72
20
12
20
17
20
12
20
17
20
12
20
17
20
12
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17
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12
20
17
Mar
ket
shar
e
New
ele
ctri
c ca
r sa
les
[th
ou
san
ds]
Denmark
Finland
Iceland
Norway
Sweden
Market share ofelectric cars
PHEV marketshare in the totalof electric cars
© OECD/IEA 2017
• Fuel economy standards • Zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates • Fuel taxes • Public fleets, taxi fleets initiatives • …
EV support policies
Close monitoring of the effect of EV support policies are paramount to avoid adverse effects.
Purchase incentives Standards, regulations
and mandates
Circulation incentives
Charging infrastructure roll-out
• CO2-based, technology-based differentiated taxation and rebates
• Feebates • VAT exemptions • …
• Differentiated plates • Access to bus lanes • Free/dedicated parking • Circulation/congestion charge
exemption • …
• Direct public investment • Public-private partnerships • Charger standards harmonization • Fast and slow charging network planning • …
Large scope for
city-level action
© OECD/IEA 2017
Which polices were prioritized in the Nordic region?
Exemptions on registration taxes are perceived by EV owners as a priority, and frequently available in Nordic countries. Local measures complement policy instruments adopted nationwide.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Perc
enta
ge o
f res
po
nse
s Incentives at vehiclepurchase
EV use and circulationincentives
Local measures
Perceived importance of Norway’s electric car support policies
based on survey results:
Overview of support policies for electric cars in the Nordic region, 2017
© OECD/IEA 2017
- 10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
ICE BEV PHEV ICE BEV PHEV ICE BEV PHEV ICE BEV PHEV ICE BEV PHEV
Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden
tho
usa
nd
s U
SD 2
01
7
Scrapping tax
Subsidy
VAT
Registration tax
Import price
Comparing purchase price of mid-segment BEV, PHEV and ICE
Denmark (BEV), Iceland (PHEV) and Norway (BEV) close the price gap with comparable ICE models.
Source: Inside EVs
© OECD/IEA 2017
Linking purchase price incentives, price gap and market share
The market share of electric cars in Nordic countries tends to be higher when incentives are larger and when the
price gap between electric cars and equivalent ICE models is smaller, with the exception of Denmark.
Iceland PHEV
Denmark BEV
Denmark PHEV
Finland BEV
Finland PHEV
Norway BEV
Norway PHEV
Sweden BEV
Sweden PHEV
Iceland BEV1%
5%
20%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
Pu
rch
ase
pri
ce g
ap w
ith
resp
ect
to
an e
qu
ival
ent I
CE
Fiscal incentive on purchase price (USD 2017)
Market share
Effect of fiscal incentives on the ICE/EV price gap:
© OECD/IEA 2017
Lack of continuity in Denmark’s EV acquisition incentives
Despite having the largest purchase incentives of the Nordic region, Denmark had the lowest market shares in the Nordic region. This is largely attributable to the changes in vehicle registration taxes in Denmark, both for ICE and electric cars.
Incentive levels for luxury car segment in Denmark, 2015-17
© OECD/IEA 2017
Nordic EVSE deployment
EVSE deployment increased across all types of chargers in 2017. Publicly available slow and fast chargers grew less than the electric vehicle stock. Publicly available slow chargers outpaced for the first time the growth of fast chargers.
Nordic charging outlets, 2010-17
Slow chargers: AC level 1 and 2 (<22kW)
Fast chargers: AC 43kW, DC, CHAdeMO, Tesla
Superchargers, inductive chargers
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Yea
r-o
n-y
ear
gro
wth
ra
te
Ch
arg
ing
ou
tlet
s (t
ho
usa
nd
s)
Private chargers
Publicly available fast
chargers
Publicly available slow
chargers
Growth rate of publicly
available fast chargers
Growth rate of publicly
available slow chargers
Growth rate of private
chargers
© OECD/IEA 2017
Electric cars per charger
Ratios of publicly accessible EVSE outlets per electric car vary significantly: Norway and Iceland, the
countries with the most advanced electric car markets, show the lowest ratios.
Nordic charging outlet ratios, 2010-17
Slow chargers: AC level 1 and 2 (<22kW)
Fast chargers: AC 43kW, DC, CHAdeMO, Tesla
Superchargers, inductive chargers
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25D
en
mar
k
Fin
lan
d
Ice
lan
d
No
rway
Swed
en
BEV
sh
are
in s
tock
EVSE
/ele
ctri
c ca
r
EVSE/Electric car(total)
EVSE/Electric car(slow)
EVSE/Electric car(fast)
BEV share in PLDVstock
EU 2020 target (left-axis)
© OECD/IEA 2017
Which polices were prioritized in the Nordic region?
Support for public charging infrastructure is widespread in the Nordic countries, while policies for
private charging (building regulations and subsidies) are not.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Perc
enta
ge o
f res
po
nse
s Incentives at vehiclepurchase
EV use and circulationincentives
Local measures
Policy type Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden
Deployment target 4 4
Building regulations 1 4
Publicly accessible chargers 4 3 4 4 4
Private chargers 4 1 4
Research & development 4 4 4
Publicly accessible chargers 4
Private chargers 4 4
Legend: 0 No policy
1 Local policy
4 Nationwide policy
Regulations
Direct
Investment
Fiscal
advantages
Overview of support policies for charging infrastructure in
the Nordic region, 2017
Perceived importance of Norway’s electric car support policies
based on survey results:
© OECD/IEA 2017
No place like home...
Home is the most used charging location.
Publicly accessible charging mostly applies to specific circumstances.
Charging occurrence per charging location in Norway, 2014-17
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2016 2017 2014 2016 2017 2014 2016 2017 2014 2016 2017
Publicly accessibleFast
Publicly accessibleSlow
Work Home
Never
Monthly
Weekly
Daily
© OECD/IEA 2017
Are electric cars impacting the power grid?
Home chargers can add significant loads to the household power demand. Unless properly managed (e.g. delayed charging), electricity demand due to electric car charging could exceed the maximum power in the distribution grid.
Peak electricity demand in independent Norwegian houses with home charging
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Summer day Winter day Extra cold day (-13°C)
kWh
/h
Typical BEV onboardcharger
Typical PHEV onboardcharger
Typical household peakpower demand
Power connection typicallarge home
Power connection typicalsmall home
© OECD/IEA 2017
EVs benefit the environment and are essential to CO2 emissions reduction
EVs use significantly less energy per km than ICE cars. The Nordic grid is especially well suited to ensure
that EV also deliver very significant CO2 emission reductions.
Well-to-wheel (WTW) GHG intensity of a BEV compared to an ICE by Nordic country, 2017
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
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Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden EU average
gCO
2-e
q/k
m
WTW GHG
emissions BEV
WTW GHG
emissions gasoline
WTW GHG
emissions diesel
© OECD/IEA 2017
Nordic electric car stock could reach 4 million by 2030
Current market size, announced policies and climate ambitions in the five Nordic countries
suggest that the EV stock could reach 4 million units by 2030.
Deployment scenario of electric cars in the Nordic region towards 2030
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Elec
tric
ca
rs (m
illi
on
s)
Sweden
Norway
Iceland
Finland
Denmark
© OECD/IEA 2017
Publicly accessible EVSE deployment in the Nordic region
The number of publicly accessible charging outlets could range between 210 000 and 400 000 by 2030,
with a central estimate at 290 000 units.
Deployment scenario of public charging infrastructure in the Nordic region towards 2030
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Nu
mb
er o
f ch
arg
ers
(th
ou
san
ds)
Norway alignment scenario - Total publicly accessible
Publicly accessible fast chargers
Publicly accessible slow chargers
Publicly accessible chargers - Central deployment scenario
© OECD/IEA 2017
EVs set to deliver major CO2 savings
4 million EVs could help save 8 MtCO2eq on that year across the five Nordic countries, which is
equivalent to 29% of GHG emitted from passenger vehicles in the Nordics in 2017.
GHG emissions from electric cars in the Nordics compared to ICEs, 2017-30
0
1
2
3
4
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6
7
8
9
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt C
O₂e
q)
GHG emissions - All-ICE
penetration scenario
GHG emissions from electric
cars - EU grid scenario
(without decarbonisation)
GHG emissions from electric
cars - EU grid scenario (with
decarbonisation)
GHG emissions from electric
cars - Nordic grid scenario
(without decarbonisation)
GHG emissions from electric
cars - Nordic grid scenario
(with decarbonisation)
© OECD/IEA 2017
Conclusion
• Nordic electric car market is booming, although at various speeds
per country.
• Policy support continues to be the main driver of strong electric
car uptake. Closing the purchase price gap is key.
• Charging mostly takes place at home, although coverage of
publicly accessible charging infrastructure expands options.
• Overall power demand can be managed, although local grids need
close attention.
• Electric cars in the Nordic region allow for lower carbon mobility
now and towards 2030.
© OECD/IEA 2017
Questions?
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/nordic-ev-outlook-2018.html
© OECD/IEA 2017
Back-up - Many ways to be involved in the EVSE market
The value chain of charging infrastructure stretches from car makers to the electricity grid and involves
a large number of stakeholders.
© OECD/IEA 2017
Back-up - Price ranges for charging practices
The price of EVSE use varies significantly depending on the charger's characteristics, with higher prices
applied to publicly available chargers, especially fast chargers.
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Private Public slow Public fast
Pay per kWh
USD
/kW
h
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
Public slow Public fast
Pay per hour(including parking)
USD
/h
Nordic charging tariffs, 2017