MARKETVIEW
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015, CBRE Ltd|
The Nordics’ strong path
continues in the third quarter
Nordic Investment Q3 2015
1
Investment change from Q2 2015
-10%Investment change from Q3 2014
56%Relative to Q3 avg. 2011-2015
79%
Figure 1: Investment volume Europe and Nordics 2010 – 2015, (€ mn)
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
• Q3 transaction activity in the Nordic region amounted to an investment volume of approx. € 9.1 billion representing 13% of the total European investment volume.
• Another strong quarter for Norway with investment volume of € 3 billion representing approx. 33% of the total Nordic investment volume, which is close to Sweden representing 36%.
• Investments in both Denmark and Norway more than doubled from previous year’s figures in Q3.
• The office sector dominated, representing 35% (€ 3.2 billion) of the total Q3 volume.
• Prime yields remained relatively stable across the region.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Q3 2
010
Q4 2
010
Q1 2
011
Q2 2
011
Q3 2
011
Q4 2
011
Q1 2
012
Q2 2
012
Q3 2
012
Q4 2
012
Q1 2
013
Q2 2
013
Q3 2
013
Q4 2
013
Q1 2
014
Q2 2
014
Q3 2
014
Q4 2
014
Q1 2
015
Q2 2
015
Q3 2
015
Europe excl. Nordics Nordics Nordics share Average
MARKETVIEW
NORDIC TRANSACTION MARKET
Transaction activity in the Nordic region resulted
in yet another strong quarter with total
investment volume reaching approx. € 9.1
billion, which is an increase of 56% when
compared to Q3 2014. The investment volume
was mainly driven by large cross-border deals as
well as large portfolio deals in Sweden and
Norway.
When compared to Q2 - transaction volume, the
Nordic activity witnessed a slight decrease of
10%, while the total European investment
market increased by approximately 5.5 % due to
high activity in mainly France, Germany, UK and
Belgium. Together with the H1 volume of € 16.4
bn, the Q1 – Q3 2015 volume ended up
historically high at € 25.5 bn. Compared with the
same period last year, 2014, the transaction
volume has increased by 44 %.
A STRONG QUARTER FOR DENMARK, NORWAY ANDSWEDEN
Sweden has traditionally been the largest
contributor to the Nordic transaction volume and
for Q3 the Swedish share ended up at € 3.3
billion, representing 36%. However, Norway
continued on a strong path with investment
volumes in Q3 reaching up to € 3 billion
representing approx. 33% of the total investment
volume.
Denmark contributed to approx. € 1.6 billion
(17%) and Finland approx. € 1.2 billion (14%) of
the total investment volume. Both Denmark and
Norway saw investment volumes more than
double in comparison to Q3 2014, and Sweden
witnessed an increase of 73%.
HIGH ACTIVITY IN THE OTHER SECTOR
When compared to the European sector
allocation, the Nordics continued to differ
slightly. The office segment dominated,
representing 35% (€ 3.2 billion) of the total Q3
volume, due to major deals in Sweden and
Norway. This is followed by the other sector,
representing 33% of all sectors.
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015 CBRE, Ltd | 2
NORDIC INVESTMENT
Figure 2: Nordics investment volume 2010 - 2015
Figure 3: Nordic vs. Europe Total sector share of total, Q3 2015
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Other includes residential, hotel, mixed-use and community properties
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
3.2
2.5
0.5
1.4
1.6
Q3 INVESTMENT VOLUMEPER SEGMENT (€ billion)
OFFICERETAILINDUSTRIAL / LOGISTICSRESIDENTIALOTHERTREND (Q-t-Q)
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Offic
e
Reta
il
Indu
stria
l /lo
gisti
cs
Othe
r
Nordics Europe Total
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Q3 2
010
Q1 2
011
Q3 2
011
Q1 2
012
Q3 2
012
Q1 2
013
Q3 2
013
Q1 2
014
Q3 2
014
Q1 2
015
Q3 2
015
Denmark Finland Norway Sweden
MARKETVIEW
CONTINUED HIGH INTEREST FROM INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL SOURCES
Despite domestic investors still dominating the
markets across the region, we continue to see an
increase in interest and net buying trend from
international investors, as predicted. On average,
the foreign share of the total Nordic transaction
volume represented 53% for Q3 2015. For Q2, the
foreign share was 54%, which denoted an
increase of 21% when compared to Q1 2015
(33%).
Investors’ investment criteria are widening, both
in terms of geography and investment profile; a
result of the demand-supply imbalance.
STABLE PRIME YIELDS WITH MINORDOWNWARDS MOVEMENT
Attributable to increased demand from
international investors and favorable financing
costs, there is continued pressure downwards on
prime yields across the region, which is reflected
mainly in the office and retail sectors.
We expect continued high liquidity and likely
sharpening of yields within most segments in the
next quarters ahead.
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015 CBRE, Ltd | 3
NORDIC INVESTMENT
Prime Yields Office Q2 - 15Retail –
High StreetQ2 - 15
Industrial/Logistics
Q2 - 15
Copenhagen, DEN 4.50 � 3.70 � 6.25 �
Helsinki, FIN 4.30 � 4.25 � 6.25 �
Oslo, NOR 4.20 � 4.20 � 5.50 �
Stockholm, SWE 4.00 � 4.00 � 5.75 �
Nordics, averageNordics, averageNordics, averageNordics, average 4.254.254.254.25 ���� 4.004.004.004.00 ���� 5.905.905.905.90 �
Prime Yields and Rents per market and segment Q3 2015
Prime Rents (Local currency) Office Q2 - 15Retail -
High StreetQ2 - 15
Industrial/Logistics
Q2 - 15
Copenhagen, DEN (DKK) 1,700 � 20,000 � 425 �
Helsinki, FIN (Euro) 444 � 1,800 � 144 �
Oslo, NOR (NOK) 4,250 � 18,500 � 1,200 �
Stockholm, SWE (SEK) 5,100 � 14,500 � 900 �
Figure 4: Foreign share of the total investment volume
Figure 5: Nordics Prime Yields, 2010 - 2015
Indices are unweighted averages of the four Nordic capital cities
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Q3 2
010
Q3 2
011
Q3 2
012
Q3 2
013
Q3 2
014
Q3 2
015
Office Retail Industrial/logistic
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Denm
ark
Finl
and
Norw
ay
Swed
en
Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015
MARKETVIEW
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015 CBRE, Ltd | 4
NORDIC INVESTMENT
Figure 7: Segment share of total, Q3 2015
Figure 8: Prime Yields
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015
Figure 6: Investment volume Denmark (€ mn)
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Q3 2
010
Q3 2
011
Q3 2
012
Q3 2
013
Q3 2
014
Q3 2
015
Office Retail Industrial/logistic
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
Q32013
Q42013
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
18%18%18%18%
18%18%18%18%
4%4%4%4%44%44%44%44%
16%16%16%16%Office
Retail
Industrial/logistic
Residential
Other
DENMARK, SUMMARY
According to preliminary figures, the investment
volume in Denmark totaled approximately DKK
11.7 billion (€ 1.6 bn) in Q3 2015, which
represents a 44% growth q-o-q, and a 117%
growth y-o-y. The estimated investment volume
in the first three quarters of 2015 has reached
DKK 29.4 billion, marking thus a 57% growth
compared to the same period of 2014. There is a
general sentiment of optimism regarding the
Danish commercial property investment market.
It is apparent that the liquidity is high. We expect
the 2015 volume to be around DKK 45-50 billion.
Residential properties were the most traded
property type in both Q3 and Q1-Q3 2015, with
44% and 29% shares in the total volume
respectively. The share of offices and retail
properties in Q3 lies at 18%. We estimate the
cross-border share of investment volume to be
around 60% in Q3 2015.
Prime office yields contracted again and stand at
4.5% as per Q3 2015, while prime retail yields
have remained stable at 3.7%. The trend for both
market segments is stable.
DEALS
Some major deals concluded in Denmark in Q3
� Galleri K shopping arcade in Copenhagen CBD Galleri K shopping arcade in Copenhagen CBD Galleri K shopping arcade in Copenhagen CBD Galleri K shopping arcade in Copenhagen CBD has been acquired by Patrizia Nordicshas been acquired by Patrizia Nordicshas been acquired by Patrizia Nordicshas been acquired by Patrizia Nordics
Patrizia Nordics has acquired Galleri K shopping arcade in Copenhagen city center for 200 million €. According to the buyer, the purchase was made as a co-investment with an undisclosed German pension fund. The sellers were Unipension and the Bank of Ireland. In addition to 13,000 sq m of retail space, the property comprises some 10,000 sqm of offices.
Source: Patrizia press-release, 2015
� Regina property in Aarhus sold to Standard Life Regina property in Aarhus sold to Standard Life Regina property in Aarhus sold to Standard Life Regina property in Aarhus sold to Standard Life InvestmentInvestmentInvestmentInvestment
The prominent Regina property on the corner of Søndergade and Sønder Allé has changed owner. The 12,000 sq m large property was sold for 37 million €. CBRE has conducted the transaction on behalf of the seller, while Capital Investment A / S has advised the buyer.
Source: CBRE, 2015
MARKETVIEW
Q1 2015 CBRE Research © 2015 CBRE, Ltd | 5
NORDIC INVESTMENT
Figure 10: Segment share of total, Q3 2015
Figure 11: Prime Yields
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015
Figure 9: Investment volume Finland (€ mn)
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015
Q3 2015 CBRE Research
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Q3 2
010
Q3 2
011
Q3 2
012
Q3 2
013
Q3 2
014
Q3 2
015
Office Retail Industrial/logistic
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
Q32013
Q42013
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
FINLAND, SUMMARY
The transaction volume in Q3 2015 was ca. EUR
1.23 billion of which ca. 0.53 billion were
portfolio sales.
Retail was the most traded asset class (40 %)
including the sale of Shopping centre Kaari in
Helsinki, which represents the biggest sale of the
quarter. The second largest activity was
witnessed in office assets (24 %).
Foreign investors remained active representing
ca. 55 % of total volume. Although there has
been yield compression for prime assets in
Finland as well, yields still compare favourably
with many other Northern European markets.
The total year-to-date transaction volume is
currently at ca. EUR 3.6 billion and we expect the
total volume for 2015 to be at the level of EUR 4.5
billion.
DEALS
Some major deals concluded in Finland in Q3
� Swedish Swedish Swedish Swedish NiamNiamNiamNiam acquires Kaari Shopping Centre acquires Kaari Shopping Centre acquires Kaari Shopping Centre acquires Kaari Shopping Centre in Helsinkiin Helsinkiin Helsinkiin Helsinki
HOK-Elanto and Swedish Niam have entered into an agreement for the sale of Shopping Centre Kaari in Kannelmäki, Helsinki. HOK-Elantoremains as the main tenant in the premises. Kaari comprises of an lettable area of 48,700 sq m and it is the 9th largest shopping centre in Finland with 5.3 million annual customers. Last year the sales volume of the centre was EUR 178 million.
Source: HOK-Elanto’s press release Sep 21st 2015
� Sirius completes several grocery store Sirius completes several grocery store Sirius completes several grocery store Sirius completes several grocery store acquisitionsacquisitionsacquisitionsacquisitions
Sirius Fund I Grocery SCSp has, through eleven completed transactions, completed the acquisition of 47 grocery store assets. The acquisitions range from single-asset to smaller portfolios and the sellers include private investors, domestic institutions, foreign investors and listed real estate companies. The largest portfolio was acquired from the Finnish listed real estate company Citycon. The aggregate portfolio consists of small and mid-sized grocery stores with a total lettablearea of more than 150,000 sqm. The portfolio includes stores operated by all the four main grocery retailers Kesko, S-Group, Lidl and SuomenLähikauppa. One third of the properties are located in the Helsinki Metropolitan area.
Source: Sirius’s press release – Sep 1st 2015
24%24%24%24%
40%40%40%40%
6%6%6%6%
10%10%10%10%
19%19%19%19%Office
Retail
Industrial/logistic
Residential
Other
MARKETVIEW
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
Q32013
Q42013
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015 CBRE, Ltd | 6
NORDIC INVESTMENT
Figure 13: Segment share of total, Q3 2015
Figure 14: Prime Yields
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015
Figure 12: Investment volume Norway (€ mn)
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015.
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Q3 2
010
Q3 2
011
Q3 2
012
Q3 2
013
Q3 2
014
Q3 2
015
Office Retail Industrial/logistic
41%41%41%41%
41%41%41%41%
4%4%4%4%
13%13%13%13% Office
Retail
Industrial/logistic
Residential
Other
NORWAY, SUMMARY
The Q3 investment volume totalled some NOK
28.1 billion (€ 3.1bn) – a decrease of approx. 13%
compared to extremely strong Q2. The year-on-
year growth, however, stands at an astonishing
147%. The total investment volume in Q1 – Q3
2015 stands at some NOK 80bn, an increase of
158% compared to same period in 2014. Majority
of the volume remains driven by large portfolio
transactions. Cross-border inflow into Norway
remains at almost 50% in Q3, down from 55% in
Q2, substantially higher than the long-term
average. Although prime yields have compressed
substantially over the last 12 months, we see that
there is some scope for further yield compression
within prime high street retail and office asset
classes. Our view is supported by strong demand
from foreign investors, continued low interest
rates, local currency depreciation and a well-
functioning domestic investor market. Our
expected investment volume for 2015 is revised
up to NOK 100 billion - which would result in the
highest number recorded in the Norwegian real
estate market.
DEALS
Some major deals concluded in Norway in Q3
� PromonadenPromonadenPromonadenPromonaden Property AS acquired by Meyer Property AS acquired by Meyer Property AS acquired by Meyer Property AS acquired by Meyer BergmanBergmanBergmanBergman
Meyer Bergman acquired Promonaden Property AS from Søylen Eiendom and Madison International Realty. The 11 property portfolio consisting mainly of prime high street retail assets located in Oslo was sold for a price of NOK 5.3 billion, indicating a NIY below 4%.
Source: Søylen Eiendom press release – 1st October 2015
� Salto Eiendom acquired by Salto Eiendom acquired by Salto Eiendom acquired by Salto Eiendom acquired by SchageSchageSchageSchage Eiendom.Eiendom.Eiendom.Eiendom.
Majority owner Schage Eiendom acquired the remaining shares in the company owning 19 retail properties across Norway. The indicative property value equates to some NOK 5bn.
Source: Schage Eiendom press release – 19th August 2015
� DNB Liv sold DNB Liv sold DNB Liv sold DNB Liv sold ØstbyggetØstbyggetØstbyggetØstbygget at at at at BjørvikaBjørvikaBjørvikaBjørvika
DNB Scandinavian Property Fund acquired Østbygget, located at CBD Bjørvika in Oslo. The 17,800 sq m property is fully let to DNB ASA. Total transactions price equates to NOK 1.2bn indicating a NIY of 4.5%.
Source: DNB Liv press release – 6th July 2015
MARKETVIEW
SWEDEN, SUMMARY
The investment volume for Q3 ended up at
SEK 31.2 bn (€ 3.3 bn). The total investment
volume Q1 – Q3 2015 ended up at the whole of
SEK 85.1 bn, an increase of 12% when compared
to Q1 – Q3 2014 (SEK 76 bn).
There is a continued strong interest from
international capital sources and an increase in
the net buying trend for the non-Swedish
investors. For Q3, cross-border deals represented
46% of the total transaction volume, and during
Q1 – Q3 it stood at 31%.
Sweden has posted an uptick in retail
investment. During Q1 – Q3 2015 transactions in
the retail sector amounted to SEK 17.5 bn,
representing 21% of the total investment volume.
When compared to the same period in 2014, the
share increased by 84%.
Investors’ investment criteria are widening, both
in terms of geography and investment profile; a
result of the demand-supply imbalance. We
expect continued high liquidity and likely
sharpening yields within most segments in the
quarters ahead. Volumes, however, are held back
somewhat due to lack of available product.
DEALS
Some major deals concluded in Sweden in Q3
� AreimAreimAreimAreim FundFundFundFund II II II II acquire acquire acquire acquire Solna PortSolna PortSolna PortSolna Port
Areim Fund II acquires the property Brahelund 2 in Frösunda, Stockholm from Commerz Real. The property is a modern and flexible office property with a newly built restaurant and gym. The total lettable area is ca 41,000 sq m, of which ca 18 000 sq m office premises are vacant today.
Source: Areim – September 28th 2015
� Areim sells Areim sells Areim sells Areim sells “Lindhagensporten” in Stockholm “Lindhagensporten” in Stockholm “Lindhagensporten” in Stockholm “Lindhagensporten” in Stockholm Inner City to Inner City to Inner City to Inner City to Invesco Real EstateInvesco Real EstateInvesco Real EstateInvesco Real Estate
Areim has redeveloped the property into modern offices with high standards and an environmental focus. Securitas and Stanley Security Solutions are two examples of large and well known tenants in the property. The last phase of the office project with 11,000 sq m of new modern office space is estimated to be completed in Q4 2016.
Source: Areim – September 1st 2015
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015 CBRE, Ltd | 7
NORDIC INVESTMENT
Figure 16: Segment share of total, Q3 2015
Figure 17: Prime Yields
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015
Figure 15: Investment volume Sweden (€ mn)
Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2015
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
Q32013
Q42013
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
41%41%41%41%
15%15%15%15%6%6%6%6%
16%16%16%16%
22%22%22%22% Office
Retail
Industrial/logistic
Residential
Other
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Q3 2
010
Q3 2
011
Q3 2
012
Q3 2
013
Q3 2
014
Q3 2
015
Office Retail Industrial/logistic
MARKETVIEW
THE DEAL OF THE QUARTER
SUMMARY
Veritas Pension Insurance has sold an office
building located in Leppävaara, Espoo to RREEF
Investment GmbH, a real estate investment
business of Deutsche Asset Management.
PurchaserPurchaserPurchaserPurchaser: RREEF Investment Gmbh
Purchaser agent: Purchaser agent: Purchaser agent: Purchaser agent: Newsec
Seller: Seller: Seller: Seller: Verities Pension Insurance
Seller agent: Seller agent: Seller agent: Seller agent: CBRE
Size: Size: Size: Size: 16,936 sq m
Price: Price: Price: Price: Approx. € 70 million
Market Property / Address Type / Sector
Size(Sq m)
Price (€ m)
Purchaser Seller
Denmark Galleri K shopping arcade Retail 16,675 200 Patrizia Nordics Unipension and the Bank of Ireland
Denmark Øresund Strandpark project Residential 42,000 160 Fastighets Balder Skanska
Denmark Tietgens Have Office 42,000 100 Niam Finn Harald Simonsen
Denmark Søndergade 53, m.fl. Retail/mixed 12,000 37 Standard Life Investments I/S Lorenzen Ejendomme
Finland Kaari Shopping Centre Retail 48,700 n/a Niam AB HOK-Elanto
Finland 47 grocery stores with 11 transactions Retail 150,000 n/a Sirius Capital Partners Several including Citycon
Finland 4 airport properties occupied by Finnair Mixed 60,000 n/aGlobal Net Lease REIT managed by Moor Park Capital Partners
NV Property Fund I Ky
Finland Sola Business Valley / Espoo Leppävaara Office 16,936 Approx. 70 RREEF Investment Veritas Pension Insurance
Norway Promenaden Property AS Retail 76,884 580 Meyer Bergman Søylen Eiendom, Madison International
Norway Salto Eiendom AS Retail 307,000 550 Schage Eiendom Verner Kapital, AVA Invest, et.al.
Norway Østbygget, Bjørvika Office 17,862 134 DNB Scandinavian Property Fund DNB Liv
Norway Gullfaks, Hinna Park, Stavanger Office 17,900 76 Wintershall Norge Entra ASA
Sweden PortfolioOffice,Industrial
659,000 1,000 Blackstone Obligo
Sweden Portfolio Residential 132,000 173 Rikshem Lulebo AB
Sweden Portfolio Mixed Use 70,480 158 Parnters Group Sveafastigheter Fund II
Sweden Gångaren 10 “Lindhagensporten” Office 35,200 158 Invesco & Sirius Partner Areim
Q3 2015 CBRE Research © 2015, CBRE Ltd | 8
NORDIC INVESTMENT
Major investment deals during Q3 2015
Sola Business Valley was built in 2011 – 2012 and it is located next to Sello Shopping Centre. Theproperty is fully leased as HQ premises. The high standard office building has received LEED Goldcertification and main tenants are Schneider Electric, Aditro and Lujatalo, all of which have theirheadquarters in the building. Sola Business Valley is located by excellent connections in the junction ofRing I and Turku highway, in the immediate vicinity of the Leppävaara railway station.
MARKETVIEW
Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy andcompleteness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.
NORDIC INVESTMENT
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CBRE Sweden
Daniel AnderssonDaniel AnderssonDaniel AnderssonDaniel Andersson
Head of Capital Markets+46 3525 [email protected]
CBRE Atrium NorwayPaul John Morice, Paul John Morice, Paul John Morice, Paul John Morice, MRICSMRICSMRICSMRICS
Head of Capital Markets +47 9224 [email protected]
CBRE FinlandHarriHarriHarriHarri SaravuoSaravuoSaravuoSaravuo
Head of Capital Markets+358 (0)40 1959 [email protected]
CBRE DenmarkMikael Mikael Mikael Mikael GludGludGludGlud
Executive Director+45 7022 9601 [email protected]
CONTACTS
CBRE Sweden
Cecilia GunnarssonCecilia GunnarssonCecilia GunnarssonCecilia GunnarssonResearch Analyst, Responsible for Research+ 46 8 4101 [email protected]
CBRE Atrium NorwayIgor PetkovicIgor PetkovicIgor PetkovicIgor PetkovicResearch Analyst+47 9303 [email protected]
CBRE FinlandMatti ChristerssonMatti ChristerssonMatti ChristerssonMatti ChristerssonAssociate Director, Research
+358 50 321 [email protected]
CBRE DenmarkDragana MarinaDragana MarinaDragana MarinaDragana MarinaHead of Research
+45 3525 [email protected]
Nicolaj Rud NielsenNicolaj Rud NielsenNicolaj Rud NielsenNicolaj Rud NielsenResearch Analyst, M.Sc. (Economics)
+45 3525 [email protected]
The Nordics
The Nordic countries consist of Denmark, Greenland, theFaroe Islands, Finland, Åland, Iceland, Norway andSweden. The Faroe Islands and Greenland are both partof the kingdom of Denmark. Åland is part of the republicof Finland.The focus of this report is on the four main countries in theRegion; Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden and theircapitals; Copenhagen, Helsinki, Oslo and Stockholm.