Normal Heat Hours and phenology
Gabriele Cola (1), Roberto Caterisano(2), Paola Cirone (2), Massimiliano Ghironi (3), Beatrice Pesenti Barili (3), Luigi Mariani (1), Osvaldo
Failla (1)(1) Università degli Studi di Milano - DiProVe.
(2) Agenzia Regionale per lo Sviluppo e per i Servi zi in Agricoltura della Calabria
(3) Centro di Agrometeorologia Applicata Regionale della Regione Liguria
XIV Convegno Nazionale di Agrometeorologia - AIAM 2011 - BOLOGNA, 8 Giugno 2011
Biological time expressed by means of
THERMAL UNITS (TU)(Tmed-Cmin)/2
FROM THERMAL TIME TO BIOLOGICAL TIME
FROM THERMAL TIME TO BIOLOGICAL TIME
NORMAL HEAT HOURS (NHH)
Response function
T - developement.
Beta Function (Wang & Engel, 1998)
Temperature Response Model (Weikai & Hunt, 1999)
MIN
OPT1 OPT2
MAX
OLIVE: subtropical fruit tree or shrub of great longevity.
PLACE OF ORIGIN OF THIS SPECIES : between southernTurkey and northern Syria. The olive was spread throughout the Mediterranean Basin by Phoenicians, Greeks and Romans.
IN THE LAST CENTURIES : spread to the whole world areaswith Mediterranean like climates (Koeppen's Cs), in areasbertween 30 and 40°of North and South latitude; howev er olive is cultivated in many other areas with climates that do not fitunder this designation (Denney et al., 1985).
OLIVE TREE - ECOLOGICAL OUTLOOK
F. sans-Cortez et al., 2002
MAIN PHENOLOGICAL STAGES
F. Sanz-Cortéz et al., 2002
00 07
09 11
336865
57
53 55
60
71 79
81 89
92
MAIN PHENOLOGICAL STAGES
OLIVE BBCH
OLIVE BBCH
Harvest maturity89
Increasing of specific fruit colouring85
Beginning of fruit colouring81
Fruit size about 50% of final size. Stone starts to lignificate(it shows cutting resistance)75
Fruit size about 30% of final size73
Fruit size about 10% of final size71
End of flowering, fruit set, non-fertilized ovaries fallen69
Full flowering: at least 50% of flowers open65
Beginning of flowering: 10% of flowers open61
The corolla, longer than calyx, starts to change the color from green to white58
Flower cluster totally expanded. Floral buds start to open.Mignolatura55
Flower cluster growing54
Inflorescence buds open. Flower cluster development starts.52
Shoots reach 10% of final size31
External small leaves opening further with their tips inter crossing.9
Foliar buds disclosure2
DESCRIPTIONBBCH
2000/2010 5838.269716.2517caroleaCalabriasidernoRC01
2000/2010 45038.949716.7088caroleaCalabriazagariseCZ02
2000/2010 50838.99216.65caroleaCalabriazagariseCZ01
2000/2010 25039.654216.2167caroleaCalabriamontalto uffugoCS01
2000/20109939.821216.4098caroleaCalabriacerchiaraCS01
2009,201016044.38.3895pignolaLiguriaViarzoSV02
2009,20105044.14768.2632colombaiaLiguriaRanzi, CastellariSV01
2008,200912043.92898.0612taggiascaLiguriaCostaIM02
2008,200919044.06258.013taggiascaLiguriaCornaiIM01
2008,200923544.37649.0945pignolaLiguriaPieve AltaGE02
2008,200915044.33569.3413lavagninaLiguriaCaperanaGE01
2000/20092044.14819.9205variousLiguriaPonzano Basso (villa Pratola)SP01
PERIODMSLCOOYCOOXCvRegionSiteName
MODEL CALIBRATIONDataset: Experimental site of Santo Stefano Magra (SP)
Period: 2000 - 2010
CALIBRATION APPROACH
Fixed cardinal minimum temperature = 6 °CVariable first cardinal optimal temperature = 15 – 25 °CVariable first cardinal optimal temperature = 20 – 35 °CVariable cardinal maximum temperature = 30 – 40 °C
1132 COMBINATIONS
1132 models based on NHH sums thresholds
Starting date: January 1st
MODEL CHOICE BASED ON STATISTICAL INDEXES
(MAE, RRMSE, R2)
NHHsum
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
01/0
1/00
15/0
1/00
29/0
1/00
12/0
2/00
26/0
2/00
11/0
3/00
25/0
3/00
08/0
4/00
22/0
4/00
06/0
5/00
20/0
5/00
03/0
6/00
17/0
6/00
01/0
7/00
15/0
7/00
29/0
7/00
12/0
8/00
26/0
8/00
09/0
9/00
23/0
9/00
07/1
0/00
21/1
0/00
04/1
1/00
18/1
1/00
02/1
2/00
16/1
2/00
30/1
2/00
date
NH
Hsu
m
BBCH 52 – 954 NHH
BBCH 65 – 1566 NHH
BBCH 75 – 2855 NHH
213273
183771
171269
156665
145358
285575
123855
111154
95452
NHHsumBBCH
SELECTED MODELcardinal minimum temperature = 6 °Ccardinal optimal temperature = 18 °Ccardinal optimal temperature = 30 °C
cardinal maximum temperature = 36 °C
SP01 dataset – 2000/2009
SELECTED MODELcardinal minimum temperature = 6 °Ccardinal optimal temperature = 18 °Ccardinal optimal temperature = 30 °C
cardinal maximum temperature = 36 °C
SP01 dataset – 2000/2009
MODEL VALIDATION - MAE
22.36GE01
16.91GE02
11.00IM01
9.86SV02
9.82IM02
3.77SV01
MODEL VALIDATION – MAE - LIGURIA
15.07BBCH 75
10.43BBCH 73
5.67BBCH 71
10.13BBCH 69
9.00BBCH 65
14.10BBCH 59
14.29BBCH 55
12.00BBCH 54
13.67BBCH 52
MODEL VALIDATIONDatasets: Genova (GE01, GE02), Imperia (IM01, IM02) Savona (SV01)
Period: 2008 – 2009 - 2010
BBCH 52
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
GE01 GE02 IM01 IM02 SV01 SV02
site
DO
Y
measured simulated
BBCH 54
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
GE01 GE02 IM01 IM01 IM02 IM02 SV01 SV01 SV02
site
DO
Y
measured simulated
MODEL VALIDATIONDatasets: Genova (GE01, GE02), Imperia (IM01, IM02) Savona (SV01)
Period: 2008 – 2009 - 2010
BBCH 55
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
GE01 GE02 IM01 IM02 SV01 SV02 SV02
site
DO
Y
measured simulated
BBCH 58
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
GE01 GE01 GE02 GE02 IM01 IM02 SV01 SV01 SV02 SV02
site
DO
Y
measured simulated
MODEL VALIDATIONDatasets: Genova (GE01, GE02), Imperia (IM01, IM02) Savona (SV01)
Period: 2008 – 2009 - 2010
BBCH 65
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
GE01 GE02 IM01 SV01 SV02
site
DO
Y
measured simulated
BBCH 69
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
GE01 GE02 IM01 IM01 IM02 IM02 SV01 SV02
site
DO
Y
measured simulated
MODEL VALIDATIONDatasets: Genova (GE01, GE02), Imperia (IM01, IM02) Savona (SV01)
Period: 2008 – 2009 - 2010
BBCH 71
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
GE01 GE01 GE02 GE02 IM01 IM02 SV01 SV02 SV02
site
DO
Y
measured simulated
BBCH 73
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
IM01 IM01 IM01 SV01 SV01 SV02 SV02
site
DO
Y
measured simulated
MODEL VALIDATIONDatasets: Genova (GE01, GE02), Imperia (IM01, IM02) Savona (SV01)
Period: 2008 – 2009 - 2010
BBCH 75
160
180
200
220
240
260
GE01 GE01 GE02 GE02 IM01 IM01 IM01 IM02 IM02 IM02 SV01 SV01 SV02 SV02
site
DO
Y
measured simulated
SV01
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
54 58 69 73 75 52 54 55 58 65 71 73 75
BBCH
DO
Y
measured simulated
MODEL VALIDATION
2009
MAE = 3.4
2010
MAE = 4
GE02
90110
130150170
190210
52 54 55 58 65 69 71 75 58 71 75
BBCH
DO
Y
measured simulated
MODEL VALIDATAION
2008
MAE = 18.42009
MAE = 13
203973
176269
150265
243575
94855
NHHsumBBCH
MODEL THRESHOLDS CALIBRATION FOR
CALABRIA
SELECTED MODELcardinal minimum temperature = 6 °Ccardinal optimal temperature = 18 °Ccardinal optimal temperature = 30 °C
cardinal maximum temperature = 36 °C
CALIBRATION - CALABRIA
CZ02 dataset – 2000/2010
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
55 55 55 55 55 65 65 65 65 65 69 69 69 69 73 73 73 73 75 75 75 75
measured simulated
MAE = 5.75
VALIDATION - CALABRIA
BBCH 55
8090
100110120130140150
OCZ1
OCZ1
OCS2
OCS1
ORC1
OCS2
OCS1
OCS1
OCZ1
OCZ1
OCS1
OCS2
ORC1
OCS1
OCS1
OCZ1
ORC1
OCZ1
site
DO
Y
measured simulated
BBCH 65
110
120
130140
150
160
170
OCZ1
OCS1
OCS1
OCS2
OCS1
OCS2
ORC1
OCS2
OCZ1
OCS1
OCZ1
OCS2
OCS1
OCS2
OCZ1
OCS1
OCZ1
site
DO
Y
measured simulated
VALIDATION - CALABRIA
BBCH 69
120
130
140150
160
170
180
OCZ1
OCS1
OCS2
OCS2
OCS1
OCZ1
OCS2
ORC1
OCZ1
OCS2
OCS1
OCS2
ORC1
OCS2
OCS2
OCS1
OCS2
site
DO
Y
measured simulated
BBCH 73
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
OCZ1
OCS1
OCS2
OCS1
ORC1
OCZ1
OCS1
OCS2
ORC1
OCS2
OCS1
ORC1
ORC1
OCS1
ORC1
OCS2
site
DO
Y
measured simulated
VALIDATION - CALABRIA
BBCH 75
150160170180190200210220230240
OCZ1
OCS1
OCZ1
OCS1
ORC1
OCS2
OCS1
OCZ1
OCS1
OCZ1
OCS2
ORC1
ORC1
OCZ1
OCS1
OCZ1
OCZ1
OCZ1
site
DO
Y
measured simulated
MODEL VALIDATION - MAE
11.51RC01
9CZ01
17.24CS02
16.18CS01
MODEL VALIDATION – MAE - CALABRIA
21.65BBCH 75
11.25BBCH 73
9.21BBCH 69
11.02BBCH 65
14.46BBCH 55
CONCLUSIONS
SERIE METEO
SERIE FENOLOGICHE
DIFFERENZE VARIETALI