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North Dakota State University, IACC Room 424, P.O. Box 6050, Dept. 8000 ,Fargo, ND 58108-6050 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
The Impact of the Nonprofit Sector in North Dakota: Challenges and Opportunities
Dr. Richard RathgeProfessor and Director
North Dakota State Data Center
Nonprofit Conference
Economic Challenges: Anticipating Change
Fargo, ND
March 5, 2009
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc2
Presentation Objective:
1. To present demographic challenges facing ND’s nonprofit community.
2. To offer a contextual overview of the nonprofit community within the state.
3. To present key findings from an impact assessment of the nonprofit sector in ND and address opportunities.
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc3
Key Population Trends
1. Population consolidation
2. Rapidly shifting age distribution
3. Shifts in household composition
This means who we serve and where we serve them is changing
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc4
Population
North Dakota’s population peaked in 1930 at 680,845.
The July 1, 2008 population estimate for North Dakota totaled 641,481, an increase of 3,577 persons from 2007.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
North Dakota Population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and the Population Estimates Branch, http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc5
North Dakota Cass County
McIntosh County
40 similar counties
4 similar counties
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc6
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc7
Decrease: -10% or moreDecrease: 0% to -9.9%Increase: 0% to 19.9%Increase: 20% to 59.9%Increase: 60% or more
Projected Percent Change in Total Population in the Great Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020Note: For purposes of this study, the Great Plains is defined as all counties in Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses; Individual state agencies providing population projections
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc8
N.D. Rural-Urban Population Distribution, 1900-2020
92.789 86.4 83.4
79.573.4
64.8
55.751.2
46.7 45.440.9
7.311 13.6 16.6
20.626.6
35.2
44.3
53.3 54.659.1
48.8
0102030405060708090
100
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2020
Year
Perc
ent
Rural
Urban
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Decennial Censuses.
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc9
North Dakota City Size: 2000
City Size Distribution in North Dakota: 2000
100 to 249 Persons
23%
0 to 99 Persons35%
2,500+ Persons 5%
250 to 2,499 Persons
37%
Chart taken from the May 2002 Issue of the Population Bulletin, published monthly by the North Dakota State Data Center (Vol. 18, No. 5).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000.
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc10
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc11
A Maturing Age Distribution, 2000(National data)
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 14121086420
Population (in millions)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base.
85+80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14
5-90-4
Male Female
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc12
A Maturing Age Distribution, 2020
Male Female
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 14121086420
Population (in millions)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base.
85+80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14
5-90-4
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc13
Baby Boomers enter system
1.825 million/yr or 5,000 a day (on average)
Baby Boomers enter age 85
Source: Older Americans 2004
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc14
Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Populationin North Dakota by County: 2000Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
Cass
Dunn
Ward
Grant
McLean
McKenzie
MortonStark
Stutsman
Williams
Wells
Barnes
Slope
Kidder
Walsh
McHenryMountrail
Sioux
Benson
Divide
Burleigh
Burke Cavalier
Emmons
Bottineau
PierceRamsey
Richland
Logan
Dickey
Traill
Mercer
Billings
Nelson
Adams
TownerRolette
Bowman
Pembina
LaMoure
Eddy
Hettinger
Steele
Oliver
Grand Forks
Sargent
Sheridan
Renville
Ransom
GriggsFoster
McIntosh
GoldenValley
Less than 15%15% to 21.9%22% to 27.9%28% or more
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc15
Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Populationin North Dakota by County: 2020Source: North Dakota State Data Center, North Dakota Population Projections: 2005 to 2020, Sept. 2002
Less than 15%15% to 21.9%22% to 27.9%28% or more
Cass
Dunn
Ward
Grant
McLean
McKenzie
MortonStark
Stutsman
Williams
Wells
Barnes
Slope
Kidder
Walsh
McHenryMountrail
Sioux
Benson
Divide
Burleigh
Burke Cavalier
Emmons
Bottineau
PierceRamsey
Richland
Logan
Dickey
Traill
Mercer
Billings
Nelson
Adams
TownerRolette
Bowman
Pembina
LaMoure
Eddy
Hettinger
Steele
Oliver
Grand Forks
Sargent
Sheridan
Renville
Ransom
GriggsFoster
McIntosh
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc16
2000 Census – Rural and Urban Population Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota
Traditional
Babyboom
X Generation
Y Generation
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc17
18901900
19101920
19301940
19501960
19701980
19902000
20022010
2020
0
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
180,000
Age 0 to 9 Age 65 and Older
Population of Persons Ages 0 to 9 and Ages 65 and OlderNorth Dakota: 1890 to 2020
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc18
North Dakota Public K-12 Enrollment, 2004-2006 and 2008-2016 Projections
Source: ND Department of Public Instruction
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc19
Change in North Dakota’s Labor Force by Age: 1970 to 2020
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
1970to
1980
1980to
1990
1990to
2000
2000to
2006
2006to
2010
2010to
2015
2015to
2020
Cha
nge
in L
abor
For
ce (Per
sons
)
65 plus45 to 6435 to 4420 to 34
Note: The change in labor force participation was calculated for 2010, 2015, and 2020 by applying the 2006 ACS labor force participation rates to the population projections.
Sources - U.S. Census Bureau: 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census; 2006 ACS. North Dakota State Data Center: North Dakota Population Projections by Age and Gender: 2010, 2015, 2020
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc20
Households by Type
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Ho
use
ho
lds
Married withChildren
Marriedwithoutchildren
Other familywith children
Other familywithoutchildren
Nonfamilyhoushold
North Dakota Households by Type: 1960 to 2000
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc21
Household TypesNorth Dakota Households by Type: 2000
Other non-family households
6%
Persons living alone29%
Other family without children
4%
Other family with children
7%
Married without children
30%
Married with children
24%
Poverty Rates in North Dakota by County: 2007
Nearly 12 percent of North Dakotans had family incomes that fell below the federal poverty thresholds in 2007.
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates, www.census.gov/hhes/saipe
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc23
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc24
Nonprofit Community in ND & MN
1. Distribution of nonprofits2. Characteristics 3. Charitable giving
North Dakota Association of Nonprofit OrganizationsMinnesota Council of Nonprofits (Jon Pratt)
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc25
Number of Charitable Nonprofits in North Dakota, 1996-2006
Source: National Center for Charitable Statistics, Urban Institute
Number of Minnesota Nonprofits
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
Source: Minnesota Council of Nonprofits
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc27
Expenditures and Assets of Nonprofits in North Dakota, 1996-2006
Source: National Center for Charitable Statistics, Urban Institute
Expenditures by Minnesota Nonprofits
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
Source: Minnesota Council of Nonprofits
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc29
Registration of North Dakota Nonprofits in 2006
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc30
Distribution of Expenditures of Nonprofits in North Dakota, 2006
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc31
North Dakota Employment in the Nonprofit Sector by Activity Area; 2004
Paid employment12.5% of ND workforce
Additional 2.3% unpaid full-timeequivalents or 9,000 workers
In t
hous
ands
Statewide Nonprofit Employment
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
Source: Minnesota Council of Nonprofits
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc33
501(c)(3) Public Charities in North Dakota by County: 2007
The first number in each county represents the total number of 501(c)(3) public charities reported for that county. The second number, in italics, represents the July 1, 2007 population estimate for that county.
Sources: The Urban Institute, National Center for Charitable Statistics, NCCS Core File (Public Charities, circa 2007) and the U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Population Estimates Program.
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc34
North Dakota Nonprofits by Field, 2006
Source: National Center for Charitable Statistics, Urban Institute
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc35
North Dakota Foundations, 2006
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc36
Average Charitable Contribution from Tax Filer who Itemized Deductions, 2006
(80% of ND taxpayers did not itemize)
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc37
Percent of Income Contributed by North Dakota Taxpayers, 2005
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc38
Estimates of North Dakota Charitable Giving, 2001-2055
54.5%
49.2%47.4%
42.4%
8.6% 7.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Decline in totalrevenue
Increase inexpenses
Decline inindividual
contributions
Increase indemand for
services
Decline involunteers
None
Challenges Minnesota organizations are experiencing due to recession
Source: Minnesota Council of Nonprofits Member Survey, 2008
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc40
Nonprofit Sector Study
Methods and Approach
• Examined North Dakota’s top 100 public charities & 66 foundations• Used IRS records (Form 990)• Developed financial performance measures
• Fiscal• Mission• Sustainability
Key Findings
1. Resources highly concentrated
2. Management & general expenses high
3. Financial performance measures mixed
Modest changes in approaches combined with partnerships can have high value impact on the nonprofit sector in North Dakota.
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc41
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc42
Concentration of wealth among North Dakota’s Top Public Charities: Assets vs Number, 2007
Assets Number
Top 10% of public charities account for 59% of total assets 65% of total revenues 66% of total expenses
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc43
Impact of Potential Changes
Develop collaborative structure to leverage resources• Skills building• Fundraising• Marketing• Capacity building
Consider: if the 10 largest charities redirected 1% of expenses to collaborative support, the amount available for leveraging would be $16,076,688. (This is equal to total revenues for the smallest 141 nonprofits in ND.)
Note: 1% redirection for foundations = $127,839, (which would cover all revenues for the smallest 45 nonprofits).
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc44
Distribution of Expenses: ND Top Public Charities
Management and General Expenses among North Dakota Top Public Charities
Average Management & General Expenses = 12.4% of total expenses• 35% of top public charities have a rate above 15% of expenses•18% of top public charities have a rate above 20% of expenses•Average rate for foundations = 26% of total expenses
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc45
Impact of Potential Changes
Reduce management and general expense and redistribute to programming or collaborative leveraging
Consider: if top public charities whose management & general expenses exceed 20%: reduced their rate by 5%, the savings would be $1,549,408 reduced their rate by 10%, the savings would be $3,098,817
If foundations whose management & general expenses exceeded 26%: reduced their rate by 5%, the saving would be $151,624 reduced their rate by 10%, the saving would be $303,266
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc46
Financial Performance Mixed
• 48% of public charities in our sample are financially weak.• Health care and human services have the lowest scores.• Largest charities (above $10 million) had the lowest scores
Fiscal Performance
Mission Performance• Fewer than 10% of charities dedicate less than 70% of expenses to programming.• Many charitable nonprofit rely heavily on program payments relative to contributions for revenues.
Sustainability Performance• Uniformly high among public charities.
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc47
Impact of Potential Changes
Skills training and capacity building can strengthen nonprofit’s financial performance
What is needed?1.Funds to assist nonprofits in capacity building2.Online resources that make location irrelevant3.Fundraising training to expanding contribution revenue sources4.Collaborative forums to assist nonprofits in all aspects of their program5.Leadership skills training
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc48
North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc49
Nonprofit Presentation 2009
Dr. Richard Rathge, Director North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND
NDSU, IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58108-6050 [email protected] Phone: (701) 231-8621 Fax: (701) 231-9730 URL: www.ndsu.edu/sdc