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Fossil Fuel—The Path Going Forward

Fossil Fuel—The Path Going Forward

IET 600 Final Project

Jeff Dupuy

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Fossil Fuel—The Path Going Forward

Abstract

With the growing concern of the expansion of fossil fuel usage in not only North America, but

around the globe, we as a society, continue to have unanswered questions about the effect on

our environment. The first item that we must establish, is global warming a real issue or a

cyclical environmental change that we are seeing at this point in our existence? Secondly, we

must ask ourselves are we willing to change how we live and how we use energy in our

everyday lives? Lastly, if we can establish this global warming phenomenon, what must we do

as a society to combat the problem?

These are some of the questions that face us, the uncertainty of it all also weighs on our

decessions. Do we have 10 years to continue this trend? Are we willing to risk living like we do

now or do we need to change and in what frame of time? How do we integrate our

environmental policies into other countries around the world?

We have so many questions to answer and so many items that we must run to ground to get a

good solid look of what our energy mixed needs to look like in the future. In the following

pages, we will try to take a look at where we were, where we are and where we will need to be

from an energy supply and consumption view—in short, we will try to come to these

conclusions by answering the above questions.

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Fossil Fuel—The Path Going Forward

Establishing the Problem—Global Warming

Most of the political commentary that we hear in today’s political environment centers

around our environment. Three major topics of conversation that we continue to hear

discussed in the realm of politics: global terrorism, the economy and global warming. If we

were to tell the generations before us, that we would be shuttering generation facilities and

talking about the sunshine being one of the primary sources for our future energy supply, they

would think we had lost our minds. We are here, we are at a point in this evolvement of energy

versus environment, we have to answer the questions of how much longer can we stay on the

current path of usage, the current path of emissions and quite possible the current path of the

destruction of the world as we know it.

Let’s not focus on the rederick, but let’s focus on the facts. With the advancement of

technologies in the areas of data collection and outer space photo documentation, we are able

to have some substantiated evidence of the environmental impact of mankind on the

environment. The following graph shows the atmospheric carbon levels for the last 650, 000

years (NASA), two things to notice, first, the cyclical movement of this carbon level for

thousands of years—I only mention this, because many discounters of the environmental crisis

we currently face uses the cyclical tendencies of our environmental history to explain away this

challenge. Secondly, notice the upward trend from 1950, this is not only an upward trend, it is

a sharp increase from the industrial revolution to present.

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Fossil Fuel—The Path Going Forward

We must also consider the circumstantial evidence when considering this issue, rising

sea levels, glacial retreat, loss of ice in the artic regions and an overall temperature rise across

the globe (20 of the hottest years have occurred since 1981) and an overall increase of

significant weather events due to rising sea temperatures. (National Geographic) Certainly

these can be considered that cyclical environmental change, but if we put the pieces together,

we find that the carbon emisions continue to on a somewhat linear rise with the global

temperatures and glacial loss. The following graph from the EPA’s climate change website

shows the correlation between the emission of greenhouse gases and the global temperature

change associated with those years since 1900. (EPA)

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Fossil Fuel—The Path Going Forward

With several points of evidence, I think we can safely say that, “something is different”

can we unequivocally say that if we continue on our current path, that we will cease to exist as

a society? I’m not sure we can say that, but we can establish that many of the bi-products of

fossil fuels is not good for us or our environment. To look at the effects of this global warming

phenomenon on society, we must look at what risk is introduced to our societies, not only

domestically, but around the globe. Like many other slowly evolving issues that faces our

globe, the warming of our atmosphere is no different, it is a very subtle assault, if you will, with

temperature rises of 1.7 degree (F) on the Earth’s surface since the industrial revolution. What

has been discovered, is that we are seeing rainfall become more sporatic, but droughts over

long periods of time, we are beginning to see less tropical disturbance, but much more volatile

storms causing more damage. The overall numbers don’t appear to be much different than we

have seen over the last 40 years, but as we drill down, we see the effects of this elevated

temperature. (livescience) These are the effects on all people on the planet, not just on the

cost, but inland, not just in the US, but in China, Africa and Indonesia, everyone has “skin” in

this game—it is a subtle, all encompassing problem that we need to look at minimizing it’s

impact on our societies. This effort will be led by new technology, less consumption and needs

to begin sooner as opposed to later.

Minimizing our Carbon Footprint

Fossil fuels has always been a story of supply and demand. When we look at minimizing

and / or limiting our carbon emmisions we have two primary areas that we can look to improve.

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Fossil Fuel—The Path Going Forward

The first of the areas is our usage of fossil fuels. Let’s look outside of the energy discussion for

an example, speeding. In the mid 1970’s, the US was in the midst of one of the most deadly

times on our roadways, many of the fatalities were caused by speeding, what was the answer?

The answer was an education regiment to take new drivers and old drivers alike and inform

them about the dangers of speeding, the safety of seat belt usage and an overall program to

identify the problem and points for resolution. (Wikipedia) This is where we find ourselves with

the fossil fuel usage discussion. We must educate our citizens about their usage and the effect

that this is having on our environment. We are at a crossroads, we have an identified problem,

but we still have an appetite of usage that continues to grow. Every facet of our lives has some

tie to energy usage, driving our vehicle, brushing our teeth, heating and cooling our residence

or even typing on this computer, we use energy at almost every turn. Some this is essential,

but what can we curb? What can we trim out of our lives, minimize or do without? These are

the questions that we are obligated to answer to come up with a solution for this looming

problem.

The following graph shows the usage sector and the supplying source (EIA), a couple of

items to take note. First, electric power and transportation accounts for 68% of total

consumption, both of which the everyday consumer (you and I), have control over a portion of

this burden on supply. Secondly, notice the parts played by petroleum and natural gas versus

coal, coal has continued to decrease in usage and the natural gas component in the power

generation sector continues to play a vital part in the decrease of emmisions, not a totally clean

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Fossil Fuel—The Path Going Forward

concept, but natural gas only produces half the carbon emisisons as coal (Smithsonian), this is

technology at work, we will discuss this more in the next section.

The second area we can look to for minimizing our carbon footprint is the use of new

renewable fuels or the more efficient use of our existing fuels. Renewables continue to make

an impact on the total picture, we also continue to see less consumption of coal and more

natural gas, solar, wind and hydro power as the following graph shows.

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Fossil Fuel—The Path Going Forward

The rise in renewables and nuclear sources continues to on a steady uptick, with renewables

taking a sharp turn since the early 2000’s, but as you can also see, the production of crude has

taken a sharp increase as well. (EIA2) The usage of coal has also declined in recent years, but

natural gas continues to expand—the point here, this is an answer that will require a multi-fuel

mix, we will never see one fuel solve this problem. We have established our appetite for

energy, so we must look to technology and a beneficial fuel mix to combat the environmental

concern.

The Path Forward

As we look at the future of energy usage, we have to look at both the domestic and

global requirements. The US usage will see a plateau, but the amount of required energy for

world use will be staggering.

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Fossil Fuel—The Path Going Forward

This rapid increase is not from the current 1 billion users, nor from the 1.2 billion that have

limited access to the current supply. This increase is from the 4 billion people that have zero

access to no electricity. (Forbes) As the world continues to develop, these 4 billion people will

require access to the world’s energy supply, 4 times the amount of transportation, electricity

and the day to day energy requirements that we use in developed nations. This realization that

we have an enormous undertaking to supply future energy needs is a contributor to the total

problem and therefore, has to be a contributor to the final solution.

Forbes Energy (Forbes) lays out a 1/3 mix of renewables, reduction and nuclear for the

solution to this problem going forward. We must diversify our energy supplies and have a mix

to combat the usage of fossil fuel, if we were to quadruple our current usage, this would cause

catastrophic damage to our environment and put pressure on our supplies that we don’t know

if we can cover the demand. For this Forbes plan to work, this would require a 65 trillion dollar

project over the next 50 years. The following mix would be achieved (Forbes)

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Fossil Fuel—The Path Going Forward

This plan also requires massive infrastructure changes and a look at how we use energy and

how we can conserve or make energy more effiecent.

The Forbes plan that was laid out in the previous paragraph is a look at one of the many

plans that have been presented to resolve the environmental crisis. The most recent presented

by the Obama administration that calls for 60% reduction in Carbon Monoxide emissions over

the next 15 years, this will be accomplished by shuttering power generation facilities (EPA2).

These two proposals are on two totally different ends of the spectrum, the first discusses a cut

in emmisions, but also gives a plan forward to diversify and replace the loss of production with

renewables, combined cycle gas and nuclear. The Obama Clean Power Plan is mostly written

around the reduction from idling facilities. As we have established, we cannot just quit making

power, we must replace and we must replace with sources with low emitting fuels. With world

populations rising to 8 billion people by 2025 with a per person usage per year of 150 gjoules,

not supply the population will not be feasible. Populations of people require certain basics for

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Fossil Fuel—The Path Going Forward

living, and I agree, we do not need lights and automobiles to live, but we do see development in

these countries that is spurred on by transportation, medical availability and education, energy

plays a vital role in all of these—to the point of being essential.

The following graph represents the projected mix of each major region and the energy

supply from each through 2035 (World Energy)

This is significant because it nor only shows the commitment from other areas to look at other

areas to produce, but it also address the diversity that will be required for us to continue to

meet the energy needs of the world.

The diversity of our supply going forward will be the largest contributor to solving the

energy question, non-production is not an option. We must investigate nuclear, hydro, solar,

natural gas, wind and all sources to maximize production and minimize emissions.

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Fossil Fuel—The Path Going Forward

Conclusion

The future of energy supply on the world stage is still a “gray” conversation. In this

manuscript, we have established that we have a fossil fuel problem, both from a need

standpoint and from an environmental standpoint. We have also established that he solution

not only is in the technology of new fuels, but also in the technology of making what we have

cleaner and the reduction will not be to zero emissions, but through diversity. This is not a

single answer solution and not a single country contribution, this is a world problem that will

require a world answer and a world contribution. I continue to believe that the uncertainty

around the issue of global warming and the amount of fossil fuel available for our use, makes

this a very controversial and debated topic—we must use new technology and new fuel sources

to combat the problem, whether it exists or not, we should put advancements to work for the

betterment of our society and for future generations.

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References:

1) (NASA) retrieved 11/21/2015 from http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/2) (National Geographic) retrieved 11/21/2015

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/12/1206_041206_global_warming.html

3) (EPA) retrieved 11/21/2015 from http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/kids/documents/temp-and-co2.pdf

4) (Livescience) retrieved 11/21/2015 http://www.livescience.com/10325-living-warmer-2-degrees-change-earth.html

5) (Wikipedia) retrieved 11/21/2015 from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_vehicle_deaths_in_U.S._by_year

6) (EIA) retrieved 11/21/2015 from http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/flow/primary_energy.pdf

7) (Smithsonian) retrieved 11/21/2015 from http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/natural-gas-really-better-coal-180949739/?no-ist

8) (EIA2) retrieved 11/21/2015 from http://www.eia.gov/beta/MER/index.cfm?tbl=T01.02#/?f=A&start=1960&end=2014&charted=1-2-3-4-6-13

9) (Forbes) retrieved 11/22/2015 from http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/05/13/what-is-our-energy-future/

10) (EPA2) retrieved 11/22/2015 from http://www2.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan/clean-power-plan-existing-power-plants

11) (World-Nuclear) retrieved 11/22/2015 from http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle/Introduction/Energy-for-the-World---Why-Uranium-/

12) (World Energy) retrieved 11/22/2015 from http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/pressmedia/recentpresentations/londonnovember12.pdf