NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
HYDROLOGY AND CLIMATE
CHANGE
JR Janowicz, M Allchin, SK Carey, RJ Granger, NR
Hedstrom, JW Pomeroy, WL Quinton, O Semanova
IP3 Final Meeting – Saskatoon, SK – September 7 – 9, 2011
IP3 - OBJECTIVES
• PROCESS
– Summarize work carried out at Wolf Creek
• PARMERTIZATION
– Discuss recent modelling initiatives
• PREDICTION
– Document changes in Yukon hydrologic response to climate warming over the last 3 decades
WOLF CREEK - PROCESS•Established 1992 for Hydrologic Model
Development / Calibration Purposes
•Variable snow storage,
redistribution, melt
•Cold soils affecting ET
•Frozen soil infiltration
•Variable permafrost distribution
•Thick organic layers affecting
runoff
•Seasonality of energy inputs
•Poorly defined drainage areas
WOLF CREEK - PROCESS
•IP3 – (CFCAS)
Funding (other
funding)
•Developed into an
Integrated Study of
Hydrometeorological
Processes and Climate
Research
PROCESS STUDIES
Snowpack Accumulation,
Redistribution and Melt is Variable
•Blowing snow transports 80
% from alpine
•Forest sublimation accounts
for 60 % of snowfall
•Snowmelt is 300 % faster in
the alpine than forest
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
SW
E (
mm
)
Shrub Tundra
Alpine
Shrub Tundra 87 111 134 139 179 216 168
Alpine 65 77 35 74 83 29
1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001
PROCESS STUDIES
Evapotranspiration is 150 % Higher in Forest Compared to Alpine
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
18-Apr 23-Apr 28-Apr 03-May 08-May 13-May
Cu
mu
lati
ve N
et
Sh
ort
wave M
J Tall Buried
Short
Tall
Sub Tall
Sub Tall Buried
PARAMERIAZATION
Hydrometeorological Process Algorithms
Developed / Advanced / Tested
•Blowing snow
•Sublimation
•Interception
•Radiation
•Evapotranspiration
•Infiltration
•Snowmelt
•Runoff
wIsp zSW )1(6.0
44.0
0
45.0
64.192.2
015.273
15.273)1( t
TSSCINF I
I
COLD REGIONS
HYDROLOGICAL MODEL
Basin
Climate Data
HRU Climate
Data:Obs
Interception:
Intcp
Snowmelt:
Ebsm
Shortwave Radiaiton:
Global
Net
Radiation:Netall
Evaporation:
Evap
Albedo:
Snow
Albedo
Snow
Transport:
PBSM
Soil Moisture:
Smbal
Basin
Data
Runoff:
Srunoff
Infiltration:
Crack
Net
Radiation:Net_rn
Routing:
Route
evap
runoff
soil gw
soil ssr
snowinfil
intercp evap
infil
SWE
snowmelt
net rain
Sunshine Hours:
Calsun
SWE
net snow
net snow
SunMax
QdroD
QdroD
Cumnet
SunMax
meltflag
Kstorage
Lag
whereto
order
inflow
outflow
basinflow
basingw
Sublimation:
BrushSubl
SWE
Summer
Infiltration:
GreenAmptInfiltration:
Fozen
Snowmelt:
KevinFrostdepth
OR
OR
OR
COLD REGIONS HYDROLOGICAL MODEL
(CRHM)
PREDICTION
ANVIL RANGE MINING CORPORATION
FARO MINE COMPLEX
•SRK Consulting
Ltd
•Deloite & Touche
•Could we
Transfer Wolf
Creek Findings to
Faro Waste Rock
Dumps to Develop
a Water Balance?
INVESTIGATION OF ANVIL RANGE MINING
CORPORATION (FARO) WASTE DUMP
WATER BALANCE
Objective: Estimate Waste Rock Dump Recharge Determining Contaminant Seepage
– Co-Investigators: Raoul Granger & Newell Hedstrom (NWRI)
• 4 Year Study
– Year 1: Develop Water Balance using Transposed Met Data
– Year 2: Develop Water Balance using Site Meteorological Data
– Year 3: Develop Estimates for Ave, Dry, Wet Scenario
– Year 4: Apply Previous Work to Trial Covers
Met Stations
Snow Surveys
Infiltration
Studies
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Sieve Size (mm)
% P
assin
gV 3
V 2
V 1A1
V 5F
V 1R
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Sieve Size (mm)
% P
assin
g
G 3
G 2
G MS
G 2A1
G 1A1
Material
Characterization
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
5/8/05 5/28/05 6/17/05 7/7/05 7/27/05 8/16/05 9/5/05 9/25/05
Evap
ora
tio
n (
mm
)
Flat
North
South
East
West
Bubble
CUMULATIVE EVAPORATION
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8/1/04 11/9/04 2/17/05 5/28/05 9/5/05 12/14/05
Ru
no
ff (
mm
)
Flat
North
South
East
West
Bubble
CUMULATIVE RUNOFF
•Infiltration
45-55%
precipitation
•Surface
runoff 15%
precipitation
Evaporation
30-40%
precipitation
RESULTS
YUKON RIVER UPSCALING
Yukon River at Eagle,
345 000 km2
Wolf Creek
Research Basin,
195 km2
Granger
watershed,
8 km2
*
*
•Environment Canada
•USGS
•Yukon Water Resources
•University of Saskatchewan
•State Hydrologistical Institute –
St Petersburg
RUNOFF MODELLING - GRANGER
WATERSHED – 1999 -2001
1999
2000 2001
NS
1999 0.93
2000 0.73
2001 0.79
WOLF CREEK – CLIMATE
WARMING LINKAGES•Climate Change Issues
Priority
•Strong GY Support
• 2007 /2009 Major Flooding
•Linked to Climate
Change
•Wolf Creek Climate Change
Research (Process, CRHM
Modelling)
CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS
PERMAFROST REGIME TRENDS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Dis
ch
arg
e (
m3/s
)Winter Low Flows
Klondike R ab Bonanza Cr
Rengleng R at Dempster Hwy
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Dis
ch
arg
e (
m3/s
)
CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS
ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE
Mean Annual Maximum Flow – Peel River above Canyon Creek
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Dis
ch
arg
e (
m3/s
)
RIVER ICE REGIME TRENDS
300
320
340
360
380
400
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Fre
eze-u
p D
ate
s (
Ju
lian
Day)
Freeze-up Timing
Yukon River at Whitehorse (1902-1993)
•Freeze-up timing delayed approximately 30 days since
1902
RIVER ICE REGIME TRENDS
110
120
130
140
150
1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Bre
ak-u
p D
ate
s (
Ju
lian
Day)
Break-up Timing
Yukon River at Dawson (1896-2011)
•Break-up Timing Advanced 6 days per century
RIVER ICE REGIME TRENDS
2002/03 Mid-Winter Klondike
River Ice Jam and Flooding
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
De
gre
e D
ay
s F
ros
t (
oc
)
Dawson City Winter
Temperatures 1902 - 2005
2002/03 warmest winter
Klondike River Ice Jam - 2003
RIVER ICE REGIME TRENDS
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020B
reak-u
p E
levati
on
(m
)
Break-up Severity
Yukon River at Dawson Annual
Maximum Break-up Elevation
(1896 - 2011)Dawson - 1979
CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS
ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE
Increasing Peak Flows Due to
Melting Glaciers
Atlin River nr Atlin
100
150
200
250
300
350
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Dis
ch
arg
e (
m3/s
)
CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS
ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE
MARSH LAKE ANNUAL
MAXIMUM STAGE 1950 – 2011
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Sta
ge (
m)
CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS
ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE
Mean Annual Maximum Discharge
Takhini River near Whitehorse
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Dis
ch
arg
e (
m3/s
)
CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS
ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE
Mean Annual Maximum Discharge
White River at Alaska Highway
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Dis
ch
arg
e (
m3/s
)
CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS
ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE
Mean Annual Maximum Flow – Donjek River below White River
Hydrometric
Station Locations
and Permafrost
Zones
WATERSHED PARAMETERS
Station Name Drainage Area Record
Glacier
Area
Mean Annual
Temp
(km2) Period (%) (oC)
Atlin River nr Atlin 6810 1950-08 12.7 -0.6
Wann River nr Atlin 269 1956-93 19.7 -0.5
Fantail R at Outlet Fantail Lk 717 1956-93 33.2 -2.0
Lindeman Creek nr Bennett 240 1954-93 14.6 -1.7
Marsh Lake nr Whitehorse 19400 1950-09 8.3 -1.5
Takhini R nr Whitehorse 6930 1949-08 5.1 -3.0
Duke River nr Mouth 631 1981-08 9.5 -4.9
Kluane R at Mouth Kluane Lk 4950 1952-95 6.0 -5.7
Donjek River bl Kluane R 12400 1979-94 21.8 -8.3
White R at Alaska Hwy 6240 1975-08 38.6 -8.7
Tatshenshini R at Dalton Post 1750 1989-08 7.0 -2.5
Alsek R ab Bates R 16200 1975-08 21.0 -3.5
Alsek R nr Yakatat 28000 1993-08 31.9 -2.4
CONCLUSIONSPERMAFROST DEGRADING
•Permafrost
Degrading?
•Greater
Groundwater
Contributions
to Baseflow
•Some Peak
Flows
Decreasing
SUMMARY
• RIVER ICE TRENDS
• Freeze-up Timing Delayed
30 Days
• Break-up Timing
Advanced 6-day/century
•More Frequent Occurrence Mid-winter
Break-up
•Greater Frequency Ice Jam Flooding
•Greater Severity Ice Jam Flooding
CONCLUSIONSGLACIERS MELTING
•Peak Flows
not Consistant
•Peak Flows
Increasing /
Decreasing
CONCLUSIONS GLACIERS MELTING
Glacierized Regions –
Little Permafrost•Peak Flows Increasing Due to
Glacier Melt
Glacierized Regions –
Greater Permafrost•Peak Flows Decreasing Due to
Longer Pathways to Stream
Channel
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
• Robert Stillwell, Jessica Boucher, Colin
Abbot Carried out Hydrometeorological
Data Analyses
• Holly Goulding - Teleconnections
• IP3 – CFCAS (Canadian Foundation
Climate and Atmospheric Sciences)
Provided Travel / Field Work Funding
THANK YOU!