Northern Tier Transmission GroupSPG Report to TEPPC

June 17, 2010Denver

“To ensure efficient, effective, coordinated use & expansion of the members’ transmission systems

in the Western Interconnectionto best meet the needs of customers & stakeholders.”

NTTG Activities• Planning

– Capacity Study Plan for approval, Kick off– Economic Studies

• Case selected• Schedule

• Cost Allocation Committee – Cataloging methods for Merchant & Jurisdictional – Gearing Up for NOPR

• Transmission Use Committee– POD/POD Map updated– ATC Updates

• Joint Initiative– ADI, DSS, ITAP, Business Practices

• Wind Integration Study Team– Remote versus Local– Dynamic Transfer Limits

• Implementing Plans - Energizing new transmission

Capacity Study PlanCapacity Study Plan

• Develop Load & resource scenarios: Core (Jurisdictional), Export• Test scenarios on existing (2012) transmission system• Build an initial 10 year out transmission network model• Identify export scenario “sinks” using Production Cost Model • Test L&R scenarios on the 10 yr network

– ProCost Dispatch simulation to determine stress hours, export sink locations

– L&R stress hours input to Power Flow case

• Screening “reliability” studies to identify binding constraints• Identify transmission solution options (generic) • Test options in dispatch model, performance, identify new stress cases• Perform contingency analysis to test proposed projects • Identify alternative(s) that best satisfy most scenarios

3

Resources in 2019 NTTG FootprintResources in 2019 NTTG Footprint

4

Northern Tier Transmisison GroupResources Added by 2019 (MW Capacity)From 2010 Q1 Data Response

Natural Gas*

WindGeo-

thermalHydro-electric

Coal Market DSM Total

Basin ElectricProject Developer - - - - 385 - - 385

Grasslands Renewable EnergyDevelopment Plans - - - 350 - - - 350

Idaho Power Company2009 Integrated Resource Plan 300 150 40 49 - 425 - 964

NorthWestern EnergyTransmisison Connection Queue 890 2,195 - 50 290 - - 3,425

PacifiCorp EastIntegrated Resource Plan 45 170 - 39 - 722 224 1,200

PacifiCorp WestIntegrated Resource Plan 1,529 986 - - - 1,148 75 3,738

Portland GeneralIntegrated Resource Plan 450 700 - - - - - 1,150

Power Company of WyomingDeveloper Forecast - 3,000 - - - - - 3,000

TransWest ExpressDeveloper Forecast 325 2,900 - - - - - 3,225

TransCanada Chinook & ZephyrDeveloper Forecast - 3,000 - - - - - 3,000

Total3,539 13,101 40 488 675 2,295 299 20,437

May 19, 2010 saw * Includes thermal with unidentified fuel source

Define Load & Resource ScenariosDefine Load & Resource Scenarios

• Core case – Firm Requirements from LSEs

1. Resources from IRP’s, other formal resource forecasts

• Scenario Export Cases – Based on submissions in response to Q1 data request

2. Add 3,000 MW of wind resource in Montana

3. Add 3,000 MW of wind resource in Wyoming

4. Add 3,000 MW in Montana, 3,000 MW in Wyoming

5. Add 6,000 MW in Wyoming

• Export Cases Sink Locations– Source/Sink from data submissions

– For scenarios with unidentified sink info - dispatch simulator to identify displaced existing generation through market competition

– Coordination with SPGsPage 5 of (##)

Build Initial Transmission NetworkBuild Initial Transmission Network

• Based on WECC 2012 Heavy Summer case (12hs2a1)– Best near-term forecast to represent present-day transmission– Same base case used by TEPPC modeling

• Add ‘committed’ transmission projects– Current TEPPC additions, SCG Foundation List, or other– To model the minimal grid that has maximum likelyhood

• Use project data (model records) from sponsors or other forums (e.g., TCWG)– High level; not a detailed build-out with low-voltage infrastructure

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Building Initial NetworkBuilding Initial Network

• TEPPC has developed two lists of ‘committed’ transmission to be added between now & 2019– Transmission agreed (by a study group) to be needed for

reliability or native load service – in the TEPPC 2019 PC1A base case

– Transmission identified by the Sub-regional Coordinating Group to be part of a ‘Foundation List of Committed Projects’ – to be used in the 2020 TEPPC base case

• NTTG must make its own decision– But may want to rely on the TEPPC lists for projects outside of

the NTTG footprint.– Lists provide a starting point for projects within NTTG’s footprint

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Transmission in TEPPC PC1Transmission in TEPPC PC1

Page 8 of (##)

TEPPC then

List of Projects – Sub-regional List of Projects – Sub-regional Coordinating GroupCoordinating Group

9Draft - Ver. 4.0, May 11, 2010, Modified by S Wallace Jun 14

Test Scenarios on Initial NetworkTest Scenarios on Initial Network

• Use dispatch model to define resource operation– Loads, resources & network outside the NTTG footprint kept as

defined in TEPPC’s 2019 PC1A case– NTTG scenarios each have the same load, different resources– See where congestion prevents economical operation– Determine hours where the system is stressed– Export data for selected hours to power flow program

• Use power flow model to screen potential fixes– Identify where generic transmission additions provide substantial

relief– Select a limited set of most effective additions

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Test Scenarios with ImprovementsTest Scenarios with Improvements

• Evaluate Fixes using Hourly Dispatch Model– Identify paths with numerous congested hours– Identify stressed hours with the modified network– Export dispatch for selected hours to Powerflow

• Examine with Detailed Powerflow Analysis– Replace generic lines with proposed projects having

similar characteristics– Perform flow studies (N-0) – Perform reliability screening contingency analysis (N-1,

credible N-2)

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Transmission Projects SubmittedTransmission Projects SubmittedIn Response to NTTG Q1 Data RequestIn Response to NTTG Q1 Data Request

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Color KeyCompar-

able Projects

Load & Resource Snapshots

Diagram of Study ProcessDiagram of Study Process

13

Initial Transmission

Network

NTTG Biennial Plan

Analysis

‘Committed’ Transmission

Projects

WECC 2012hs2A1 Base Case

Create Scenarios

Exercise Scenarios, Identify & Export

Stress Hours

Develop Initial

Network

Test Initial Network

Test Base Network

Load & Resource Scenarios

Load & Resource Snapshots

Test Improvements, Identify & Export

Stress Hours

Identify Generic

Improvements

Generic Fixes (.epc)

Contingency Analysis

Identify Comparable

Projects

GE PSLF & PTI PSS/E

GridView & PROMOD

Input Data

Intermediate Data

Planners

Requested Economic Studies

• Economic Studies Team (EST) will perform one study in 2010 – Base case & (at least) three expansion cases– Base Case

• WECC TEPPC 2019 PC1A • 1500 MW at Townsend in addition to the RPS generation in

PC1A case– Transmission Expansion cases

• AMPS Upgrades• Colstrip Upgrade• MSTI

– Other sensitivities follow up as needed– Cases run on GridView & ProMod & compared

Planning Milestones

15

Q1GatherInformation

Q2Study Plan & Assumptions

Q3Perform Analysis

Q4Perform Analysis

Q5Detail StudyDraft Report

Q6Further Analysis

Q7PrepareFinal Report

Q8Final Plan Approval

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Issue Data Request

Data Request Window closes

Draft Study Plan completed – scenarios definedStudy Plan reviewed at Stakeholders Meeting

Development of base network model startsEconomic Study begins

Economic Study defined & agreed

Scenario simulation to generate power flows begins

Screening studies with DC power flow analysis beginsSimulation of expansion cases begins

Power flow evaluation of expansion cases

Year 2 Economic Study begins

Study Results - Stakeholders Meeting

Economic Study Milestones

• May 07 Obtain, install & verify WECC TEPPC PC1A case

• May 14 Establish & run core cases (base case & three expansion cases)

• May 21 Extract & share model outputs• May 27 Draft analysis, graphics,

observation & conclusions for review• June 04 Draft report to Planning Committee• June 30 Adoption by Planning Committee

Plans Becoming Reality

Energizing: Hemingway 500 kV Substation Populus Substation - Nov Ben Lomond –Terminal DCTL 345 kV