Not Protectively Marked Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved An Agile...

Not Protectively Marked

Not Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved

An Agile Approach to Directing Product Development Strategy against an Uncertain Future

Kevin SmithOperational Analysis Manager, Advanced Projects, Military Air Solutions

26 ISMOR


Not Protectively MarkedNot Protectively Marked © BAE SYSTEMS 2009. All Rights Reserved

Contents & Scope

– Dimensions of Uncertainty for Industry

– Outline the Analysis Approach

– Summarise Key points

Utilise Unmanned Aircraft Systems as the application example throughout

- Many uncertain dimensions to analysis process



Key Dimensions of Uncertainty

1. Market – Military, Civil or Commercial customer?

– Budget available?

2. Requirements (i.e. User Requirements)– Known, evolving …

– Similar across users or discrete?

– Expressed differently by alternative Customers

3. Solution– Product or service?

– What product?



Market Analysis – Key Criteria

1 2 3 4 5

MOD Industry Negative Neutral Positive

Not Available to Industry

Strong Supplier Lock-In

Strong Competitor Preference

Open Competition - No

Preferences

BAE SYSTEMS Preferred

Disposition to BAE SystemsLocked

Openness

1 2 3 4

Inorganic Solution

New Product/Service

Enhanced Product/Service

Existing Product/Service

Requires new capability, best

acquired through organic growth

Requires organic development of

existing capability.

Enhanced product or service within current capability

Existing product or service

Portfolio Alignment

1.

2.



Market Analysis – Result Template2009-2020 Value ($m)

80

Tactical ISR Capability

Total Inorganic Solution New Product/ServiceEnhanced

Product/ServiceExisting

Product/Service

$80

Op

enn

ess

Portfolio Alignment

Lo

ck

ed In

du

stry

MO

D

Cu

sto

mer

Pre

fere

nce

to

BA

E S

yste

ms

Neg

ativ

eN

eutr

alP

osi

tive

DEVELOP COMPETE

ACQUIRE PARTICIPATE

- by country- by timescale- by …



Requirements:Establish Global User Capability Taxonomy

Traceable toCustomer terminology

Civil Taxonomies or Applications

Civil Taxonomies or Applications

Military Capability TaxonomiesAUS

Military Capability TaxonomiesUS Home

Markets

End UserCapability Taxonomy

MilitarySpecific

‘Functionally’Common

Civil &Commercial

Specific

UR 1 UR 2 107 UAS ApplicationsUR 3 UR 4UR104

UR105

UR106

UR107

Generic role 1 Generic role 2 Generic role 9

UR 1 UR 2 107 UAS ApplicationsUR 3 UR 4UR104

UR105

UR106

UR107

Generic role 1 Generic role 2 Generic role 9

UR 1 UR 2 UAS ApplicationsUR 3 UR 4UR104

UR105

UR106

UR107

Generic role 1 Generic role 2 Generic role 9Bottom-up exploratory

Military Capability TaxonomiesUK



Combat Intensity & Scale

Geo

gra

ph

ic S

pre

ad

Military Operations – Historical Projections




Geo

gra

ph

ic S

pre

ad

1996

Cold War

NATO South

NATO North

Coalition

Coalition

National

Coalition

Coalition

Coalition

Inter State Conflict

Nu

clear

No

n N

ucl

ear




Geo

gra

ph

ic S

pre

ad

Later…

NATO South

Coalition

Coalition

National

Coalition

Coalition

Coalition

Coalition

Coalition

Coalition

National

NATO

National

National

UN

UN

Inter State Conflict

Civil Conflict




Geo

gra

ph

ic S

pre

ad

Even Later…

NATO South

Coalition

Coalition

National

Coalition

Coalition

Coalition

Coalition

Coalition

Coalition

National

NATO

National

National

UN

UN

EU

Coalition

UN Coalition

UK / FRInter State Conflict

Civil Conflict




Geo

gra

ph

ic S

pre

ad

Today / Future

Coalition

Coalition

Coalition

Coalition

Coalition

Coalition

Coalition

Coalition

National

NATO

National

National

UN

UN

EU

Coalition

UN Coalition

UK / FR

Coalition

EU

National

UN

EU

Coalition

International Terrorism

WMD Proliferation



Requirements:The Uncertain Future Security Environment

– In future there may be:– A lower probability of high threat scenarios involving conventional warfighting – A potential increase in nuclear armed states leading to wider regional instabilities and

hence International Conflict – A reduced incidence of interstate warfare between established states that are

internationally recognised – An increased potential for intrastate conflict & warfare in less advanced states – An increase in criminal and irregular activity associated with failed or failing states

– Consequently there may be:– An increased demand for Intervention & Stabilisation Operations which highlight the

increasing importance & value of CIMIC– An increase in Counterinsurgency Operations which may also arise as a

consequence of intervention– An increase in Maritime Security Operations to counter smuggling, piracy, irregular

activity and in response to contentious sea control activities by developing maritime powers

– An increase in covert operations around the world to counter terrorism and to counter proliferation of WMD

– An increase in proxy wars and the use of “private” security



Coyote

Solutions: Alternate VTOL UAVs (for Maritime)

CamcopterIntegrator

Fulmar

ScanEagle

SAAB Skeldar

EADS Sharc

BAES IAV2

EADS Orka HETELAmpersand

CQ-10B SnowGoose

K-Max

Fire ScoutHummingbird X-2

X-49A

Concept

Groen Hawk 4Eagle Eye CarterCopter

AD-150



Rea

ch

Per

sist

ence

Mu

lti-

spec

tral

Rap

id r

esp

on

se

Rap

id E

xplo

itat

ion

+++

Basing flexibility ++

Range +++ +++ -- ---

+

Sensor Capability +++

+++

Comms Performance +++

Core Analysis process:Capability To Solution Translation Framework

Operational CapabilityMeasures – ‘URD’

Sy

ste

m p

erf

orm

an

ce

Ch

ara

cte

ris

tic

s (

SR

D)

Parameters / emphasis driven by Operational Use- Customer / role specific

Trade-offs required withinsolution development

AssessSolution

DeriveSolution



Overall Analysis Process

Herti Mantis VTOL GA-22

Solutions

Military Specific

$0 (0%) $0 (0%) $0 (0%) $0 (0%)

$1,027 (6%) $2,485 (15%) $180 (1%) $0 (0%)

- Basic Trainer Replacement- Transport Replacement

- MPA Requirement (manned & unmanned)

- Civil UAV Requirement- Tactical UAV Requirement

$792 (5%) $0 (0%) $0 (0%) $0 (0%)

- C-130 Replacement

$11,614 (72%) $0 (0%) $0 (0%) $0 (0%)

- Contracted- Indigenous

- Further existing

$0 (0%) $0 (0%) $0 (0%) $0 (0%)

Total Inorganic Solution New Product/ServiceEnhanced

Product/ServiceExisting

Product/Service

$16,098

Ind

us

try

Ne

ga

tiv

eN

eu

tra

lP

os

itiv

e

Op

enn

ess

Portfolio Alignment

Lo

cked

Cu

sto

mer

Pre

fere

nce

to

BA

E S

yste

ms

MO

D

DEVELOP COMPETE

ACQUIRE PARTICIPATE

Market Definition

Global ‘End User’ Capability Taxonomy

AccessibleMarketNeeds

Rea

ch

Pers

iste

nce

Mul

ti-sp

ectr

al

Rap

id re

spon

se

Rap

id E

xplo

itatio

n

+++


Range +++ +++ -- ---

+


+++


Rea

ch

Pers

iste

nce

Mul

ti-sp

ectr

al

Rap

id re

spon

se

Rap

id E

xplo

itatio

n

+++


Range +++ +++ -- ---

+


+++


SolutionAssessment

SolutionsPortfolio

Rea

ch

Per

sist

ence

Mu

lti-

spec

tral

Rap

id r

esp

on

se

Rap

id E

xplo

itat

ion

+++


Range +++ +++ -- ---

+


+++


Rea

ch

Pers

iste

nce

Mul

ti-sp

ectr

al

Rap

id re

spon

se

Rap

id E

xplo

itatio

n

+++


Range +++ +++ -- ---

+


+++


SolutionDevelopment

Herti Mantis VTOL GA-22

Solutions

Military Specific

CompetitionPerformanceAssessment

New Solutionor

Enhanced Solution



GenericCapability

L1

Analysis Rigour – Confidence & Resource

CustomerSpecific Capability

Qualitative / parameter based

SME Opinion

Effectiveness inCustomer Environment

Analysis Tools

SE ExperimentationVisualisation & Promotion

in Customer Representative Environment

Operational Evaluation / Warfighting

Fidelity

Time

Cost

Is it viable ?

Should we ?

Might it sell ?

Just how good is it ?

Analysis fidelity must be driven by Confidence requirement / Business risk, matched to resources available …

L2

L3

L4



Example Level 2 Parameter Framework:Range & Responsiveness

0: No constraints at all!1: Response time is not critical, fairly routine task.2: Need to be responsive but only within the day (e.g. non 3: Need to be responsive but within hours.4: Need to be responsive (e.g. call for assistance but not an emergency situation)5: Need to be highly responsive, being at an AOI very quickly after being instructed (e.g. Reacting to an emergency call)

This describes any reqiurements regarding the timeliness of getting to the AOI or changing from one AOI to another.

This reflects any requirements for minimum and maximum speed arising from operational factors external to the system that will override the general desire for efficiency or a need to perform the task in a specified time.

Responsiveness9

0: Point system only (e.g. Barrage balloon!)1: Local , say within 20-50nm (Effectively a point system tied to a particular base or location e.g. emergency communications coverage for a specific city)2: Tactical, say 50-100nm (System basically travels with the operator)3: Sub national / Regional - Few 100nm (say 100-300nm) (e.g. civil customer operating typically within a given county or corps level military assets)4: Operational / National 300-1000nm5: Strategic / International > 1000nm

This is the maximum distance from the operating base at which the system will be expected to be capable of carrying out its task. Ignore the contribution of factors such as payload range at this stage. This is assessed separately from endurance / persistence, and is intended to a large extent to drive out issues to do with the need for non line of sight communications.

Distance from Launch Recovery Base to AOI

5



UK Maritime UAS – L4 Approach required!

Maritime/Littoral Scenario Development (Nigeria)

Generic Naval Task Group Roles and Functions

Systems v RolesEvaluation

Force Mixes ~6

Solutions:- Existing manned systems- Future manned/unmanned systems- BAES UAS Portfolio- Other manned/unmanned (gaps)

RN/RM Plans, Practice & Doctrine

Establish likely fleet/market size

Derive Maritime UAS Requirements

Watching brief on other nations*

Understand Naval Ops

Explore Force-Mix Solutions

* USA, Australia, Canada, EU/NATO, India

Vignettes

Concept Suitability

Filter

Analysis of Force-Mix Solutions

Exploit Analysis

Product development New concepts

PreferredSystem-of-Systems

System-of-Systems Formulation

Qualitative Analysis

Force Mix Quantities & Costs



Summary

– Objective, scaleable, evidence-based approach enabling/driving an integrated UAS solution portfolio development

– Enables the alignment to market needs of –– Concept development & new concept generation

– Product investment (inc technology) planning

– Integrated UAS portfolio marketing

– Critically, it is– A self-consistent analysis across the Global operation

– Underpinned by Information / Knowledge management

– Rationale, traceable, agile

– Rigorous where necessary


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