NTSB General

Aviation Focus

Earl F. Weener, Ph.D.

Board Member

17th Annual General

Aviation Air Safety

Investigator Technical

Workshop

September 26, 2012

2

NTSB “Air Force”

• Built/Restored or Building/Restoring* • Sheryl Chappell: Cessna 180 Floatplane

• John Clark (EAA #603773): Schreder RS-15, Vans RV-9A, Vans RV-12

• Paul Cox: Beech Bonanza G33, Vans RV-8a (Building)

• Dennis Crider (EAA #1041658): Vans RV-12

• Dennis Diaz (EAA #1047382): Vans RV-7a

• Craig Hatch (EAA #659495): Vans RV-8a, Cessna 140

• Tom Haueter (EAA #251921): 1943 Stearman, 1934 Lockheed Altair

• Tim LeBaron (EAA #454270): Piper J-3, Breezy (experimental), Pober Jr. Ace,

1941 Piper J5A, 1946 Cessna 120, 1975 Cessna 150, 1946 Ercoupe, Vans RV-4,

1947 Piper PA-11 Cub Special

• Larry Lewis (EAA #751909): Varga Kachina 2150A, Vans RV-8

• Ron Price: 1972 McCollough J2, Long EZ

• Eliott Simpson: Vans RV-7, Pietenpol Aircamper

• Bob Swaim (EAA #221919): 1974 Beech Sport, 1947 Cessna 140, 1967 Cessna

150, 1941 Stinson 10A, Kitfox

• * At least one airplane listed was built/restored or is in the process of being

built/restored.

3

NTSB “Air Force”

• Own (Not Built/Restored) • Member Earl Weener (EAA #727429): Beech Bonanza B36TC

• Kurt Anderson: Navion, Aeronca 11AC, Cessna 170A

• Tim Burtch (EAA #1078661): Cessna 172

• John Brannen: Sonerai IIL

• Evan Byrne: Cessna 172

• Jill Demko: PA-22-108 Piper Colt

• J. Michael Duncan: Beech Bonanza V35B

• Kristi Dunks (EAA #689578): 1955 Piper Super Cub

• Catherine Gagne (EAA #646357): 1956 Beech Bonanza G35

• Craig Hatch: Cessna 170a

• Mike Huhn: Cessna 182

• Judge William Mullins: Vans RV-8a

• Jose Obregon: Cessna 172

• Jim Ritter: Piper Comanche

• Chris Stephens (EAA #689593): Piper Comanche

4

All GA Accidents (Part 91)

1,837

1,727 1,715 1,741

1,617 1,671

1,523

1,651 1,569

1,480 1,439 1,466

345 325 345 352 314 321 308 288 275 275 268 263

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Nu

mb

er

of

Ac

cid

en

ts

Calendar Year

Total Fatal

5

GA Accident-involved Fatalities

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

To

tal F

ata

liti

es

Calendar Year

GA Accident-Involved Fatalities

6

GA Accident Rates

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Ac

cid

en

ts p

er

10

0,0

00

Fli

gh

t H

ou

rs

Calendar Year

Total Fatal

7

Defining Fatal Accident Events

• Loss of Control in Flight

• Loss of Control on Ground

• Abnormal Runway Contact

• System/Component Failure – Powerplant

• Controlled Flight into Terrain

• Unintended Flight into IMC

8

Accident Rates per 100k Flight Hours

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Ac

cid

en

t R

ate

s p

er

10

0k

ho

urs

Accident Rates per 100k Flight Hours 2000-2010

All GA

Corporate

Business

Instructional

Personal

9

Fatal Accident Rates per 100k Flight Hours

0

1

2

3

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Fa

tal A

cc

ide

nts

pe

r 1

00

k h

ou

rs

Fatal Accident Rates per 100k Flight Hours 2000-2010

All GA

Corporate

Business

Instructional

Personal

10

Business Flying, 2007-2009 All accidents – Loss of control (in-flight or on the ground) accounted for the

largest portion, followed by system/component failures.

Fatal accidents - Loss of control in-flight, followed by controlled flight into

terrain, CFIT.

0

0

1

2

4

5

12

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Loss of Control on Ground

System/Component Failure - Non-Powerplant

Fuel Management

System/Component Failure - Powerplant

Collision on Takeoff or Landing

Controlled Flight into Terrain

Loss of Control in Flight

Number of Fatal Accidents

11

25

25

78

88

116

122

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Collision on Takeoff or Landing

System/Component Failure - Non-Powerplant

System/Component Failure - Powerplant

Loss of Control in Flight

Abnormal Runway Contact

Loss of Control on Ground

Number of Fatal Accidents

All Accidents - Loss of control on the ground or in-flight and abnormal runway

contact accounted for the great majority of defining accident events.

Fatal Accidents – Loss of Control on Ground, followed by Abnormal Runway

Contact

Instructional Flying, 2007-2009

12

Personal Flying, 2007-2009

25

34

45

63

75

250

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Fuel Management

System/Component Failure - Non-Powerplant

Unintended Flight into IMC

System/Component Failure - Powerplant

Controlled Flight into Terrain

Loss of Control in Flight

Number of Fatal Accidents

Total accidents - loss of control in flight and on the ground and power plant

failure were the most common defining events.

Fatal Accidents - Loss of control in flight, followed by CFIT.

13

Personal Flying Accident Rates

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Ac

cid

en

t R

ate

s P

erc

en

tag

e p

er

10

0k

ho

urs

Total

Fatal

14

NTSB Outreach

• NTSB Most Wanted List

• EAA AirVenture - Oshkosh 2011

• EAA AirVenture - Oshkosh 2012

• Sun ‘n Fun 2012

• GA JSC Participation

• EAA Sport Aviation Magazine Article on NTSB

• AirVenture - Association Presidents Meeting 2011 &

2012

• Forum - GA Safety – Climbing to the Next Level

• Forum - GA Search & Rescue

• Experimental Amateur Built Safety Study

Take safety messages to pilots and industry

15

Most Wanted List

10 issue areas

Reviewed annually

Objective – bring focus

on need for

improvements

16

NTSB Most Wanted List

• General Aviation Safety

• Runway Safety

• Bus Occupant Safety

• Safety Management Systems

• Recorders

• Teen Driver Safety

• Human Fatigue

• Alcohol-Impaired Driving

• Motorcycle Safety

• Pilot and Air Traffic Controller Professionalism

17

Why GA on the Most Wanted List?

• NTSB investigates approximately 1500 GA

accidents per year

• Overall GA accident rate flat

– Has not improved over the last ten years

– Air carrier accident rate decreased almost 80%

• Personal flying accident rate

– Increased 20% over last 10 years

– Fatal rate increased 25% over that period

• GA Personal flying safety needs attention

18

19

Safety Forum Agenda

• Panel 1 – Safety Priorities

– NASA, GA-JSC, FAA

• Panel 2 – Safety Programs

– ABS, AVEMCO Insurance, AOPA, FAA (Wings

Program)

• Panel 3 – Role of the Flight Instructor

– SAFE, NAFI, FAA, UND, IAFTP

• Panel 4 – Content, Quality & Consistency

of Pilot Training

– FAA, ASA, Red Bird Simulators, SAFE, ERAU

20

Safety Forum Agenda (cont’d)

• Panel 5 – Weather Related Decision-Making

– FAA, Baron Services, ERAU, CAMI, Independent

Aviation Safety Speaker, FAA

• Panel 6 – Aircraft Maintenance and

Modification

– FAA, EAA/VAA, Middle TSU, PAMA

• Panel 7 – New Aircraft Design and

Certification

– FAA, GAMA, Cirrus, AOPA, ICON Aircraft

• Panel 8 – Advanced Avionics and

Handhelds

– GAMA, AOPA, NASA, ERAU

21

22

SAR Forum Agenda

• Panel 1 – National SAR System Overview

– NOAA, NSARC, USCG

• Panel 2 – National SAR Policy

– FAA, FCC, AOPA

• Panel 3 – Operational Issues

– FAA, AFRCC, CAP, State SAR Coordinators

Council

23

SAR Forum Agenda (cont’d)

• Panel 4 – Technical Issues

– AEA, FCC, ACR Electronics, EBC, ACK, FAA

• Panel 5 – Emerging Technologies

– RTCM, DeLorme, Globalstar, Spidertracks, FAA,

USFS, CTIA

• Panel 6 – The Future of GA SAR

– USAF, USCG, Equipped to Survive Foundation,

AFRCC

Special Study

The Safety of Experimental Amateur-

Built Aircraft (E-AB)

25

Accident rates of E-AB aircraft

21.17

9.49

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Accid

en

ts p

er

10

0,0

00

Flig

ht H

ou

rs

Calendar Year

Accident Rate per 100,000 Flight Hours, 2001-2010

E-AB total Non-E-AB total

26

5.27

1.56

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Accid

en

ts p

er

10

0,0

00

Flig

ht

Ho

urs

Calendar Year

Fatal Accident Rates per 100,000 Flight Hours, 2001-2010

E-AB fatal Non-E-AB fatal

Accident rates of E-AB aircraft

27

E-AB Kits

Quick-Build Kit Standard Kit

28

The Research Questions

• What are the circumstances and causes of E-

AB accidents?

• What are the characteristics of the population

of E-AB builders, pilots and aircraft?

• Are There Ways to Mitigate the E-AB Accident

Risk?

29

The Data Sources

• Retrospective E-AB & Non-EAB Accident and Exposure Data: 2001 – 2010

• Prospective In-Depth Accident Data: 2011

• The EAA Survey of E-AB Owners and Builders: 2011

• Interviews/discussions with EAA officials, FAA officials, manufacturers, type clubs, and builders.

30

The Major Issues Identified

• Accidents Early in the Life of the

Aircraft and on the First Flight

• Power-Plant Failures and Loss of

Control In Flight

• Aircraft Registry and Accident

Records

31

Most Frequent Kit Makes and Models

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Van's RV-3Van's RV-4Van's RV-6

Van's RV-6A

Van's RV-7Van's RV-7A

Van's RV-8Van's RV-8A

Van's RV-9

Van's RV-9AVan's RV-10Van's RV-12

Lancair 200/235/320/360

Lancair ESLancair LegacyLancair IV/IV-P

Lancair EvolutionGlasair I

Glasair IIGlasair III

GlaStarZenith Zodiac CH601/650

Zenith STOL CH701/750/801

Respondents

32

“Makes” of Plans-Built Aircraft

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Rutan Long-EZ

Cozy

Pitts Special

Rutan VariEze

Thorp

Steen Aero Lab

Starduster

Pietenpol

Wittman Tailwind

Monnett

Acro Sport

Bushby/Mustang Aeronautics

Bowers

Rand Robinson

Ace Aircraft

All Other Plans

Respondents

33

E-AB Aircraft Accidents During

2011

• Most accident aircraft were

airplanes

– 212 airplanes, 2 gliders

4 helicopters, 9 gyroplanes

• Most were built from kits

– 166 kit-built, 58 plans-built,

3 original design

34

2011 Similar to Previous Decade

• Powerplant failures and loss of

control in flight most common

occurrences

• Loss of control most common fatal

accident occurrence

35

Detailed Analysis of 2011

Accidents

• 34 accident aircraft were in Phase I

flight testing

• 125 of the 227 accident aircraft were

purchased used (55%)

36

37

First Flight Accidents - 2011

• 10 of 102 accidents in newly-built

aircraft occurred during the first

flight

• 14 of 125 accidents in used aircraft

occurred during first flight after

being purchased

38