Nuclear Power

Akira OMOTO

DIR-NENP

a.omoto@iaea.org

Seminar 6Feb20072

Global trend on nuclear powerNuclear Power ReactorsCharacteristics of nuclear power optionFuture projectionsIntroducing Nuclear PowerSummary

Seminar 6Feb20073

Current worldwide nuclear generating capacityCommercial NPPs in Operation 435 (367.8 GWe)Share of nuclear electricity 16%

Slowdown of capacity addition since late 80’s Electricity market deregulationSlow growth of electricity demand in advanced countriesPublic PerceptionEconomic reforms in Russia and EE countries

Nuclear electricity increased due to availability increase Best practice prevailing Consolidation to those who perform best Risk-informed regulation

Plant life extension and power uprating Current expansion in Asia Rising expectation to the role of nuclear power

Trend on Nuclear Power

Seminar 6Feb20074

17/29 in AsiaIndia 7China 4 (+2 in Taiwan, China)Japan 1ROK 1Pakistan 1Iran 1Russia 5 Ukraine 2Bulgaria 2Romania 1Finland 1Argentina 1

0

50

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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

GW

(e)

NA WE Russia & EE Japan & ROK Developing

North America

Western Europe

FSU / EEJapan / ROK

Developing countries

Current expansion is in Asia and Eastern Europe

Seminar 6Feb20075

Fig.1: Contributions to nuclear production growth

1990-2004

Uprating7%

New capacity

36%

Availability increase

57%

From 1990 through 2004, global nuclear electricity production increased ~40%

Seminar 6Feb20076

Operational reactors by age (January 2007)

0

5

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25

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35

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

50%75%

Age distribution (327/435 over or equal to 20)

Seminar 6Feb20077

0

20,000

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Capacity with 100% license renewal

Current licensed capacity (w/o license renewal)

Megawatts

Megawatts

Long-term operationLong-term operation

Life = Components specific (degradation, obsoleteness) Monitoring and replacement “License Renewal” (US), “Periodic Safety Review” (Europe) Coupled with power uprating, enhancing capacity

US projection

Seminar 6Feb20078

Projection in France

Source : EDF, ENC 2002

Long-term operationLong-term operation

Seminar 6Feb20079

Support to informed decision-making on Plant Life Management

Guideline for PLiM Guideline for aging management

Monitoring, Inspection &

MaintenanceAssessment method

on Integrity of Structure,

System and Components

Support to

Informed decision-making on PLiM by Member States

Database

TC

Seminar 6Feb200710

Global trend on nuclear powerNuclear Power ReactorsCharacteristics of nuclear power optionFuture projectionsIntroducing Nuclear Power

Seminar 6Feb200711

Typical Nuclear Power Plant

Nuclear Island-Nuclear Reaction

- Fuel- Controls

-Heat transport- Pumps & Valves- Heat Exchangers- Electrical, Controls

- Safety Systems(for key safety functions)

Turbine IslandPower conversion system - Turbine & Generator - Pumps, heat exchangers - Controls

Seminar 6Feb200712

Reactor types

Classification by neutron energy spectrum• Fast neutron reactor• Thermal neutron reactor

Classification by coolant • Gas-cooled (CO2, Helium)• Water-cooled (Heavy water, Light water)• Liquid Metal-cooled (Sodium, Lead, Lead-Bismuth etc)• Molten salt-cooled

435 commercial reactor in operation (as of today) 264 PWR, 93 BWR, 42 PHWR, 18 GCR, 16 LWGR(RBMK), 2 FR

Non-conventional concepts• Gas-core reactor• Accelerator Driven System (sub-critical)

Seminar 6Feb200713

Fuel Sphere

Half S ec tion

Coated P ar tic le

Fuel

Dia. 60m m

Dia. 0,92m m

Dia.0,5m m

5m m Graphite layer

Coated partic les im beddedin G raphite Matrix

P yro lytic C a rbon S ilicon C arb ite Ba rr ie r C oating Inner P yro ly tic C a rbon P orous C arbon B uffe r

40/1000m m

35/1000m m

40/1000m m

95/1000m m

Uranium Dioxide

FUEL ELEMENT DES IGN FOR PBMR

LWR (Light Water Reactor) fuel

Coated particle fuel

One pellet (1cm x 1cm) can produce 3000 KWhr (0.8 x yearly consumption in one household in Japan)

pellet

ReactorFuel Assembly

Fuel style • pellets in rods• coated particle• molten-salt etc.

Fissile Material• Uranium• Thorium• Plutonium etc.

Nuclear Fuel

Seminar 6Feb200714

Fission process and released energy

1 fission releases 200 MeV1 D-D fusion reaction releases 3.27 MeV1 chemical reaction (burning fossil) releases several eV

LWR power density in the reactor core : 50-100 KWth/literSolar power : use 1.3 kwth/sq. meter

Neutron

Fissile material

Fission Products

Neutron

ScatteredAbsorbed - capture - fission

Seminar 6Feb200715

Fissile material composition changes with burnup

Uranium fuel producesPlutonium by U238 absorbing neutron.

What produces energy in LWR?

Seminar 6Feb200716

Neutron interaction with fissile material depends on neutron energy

Higher potential for fission in lower neutron energy region

High potential of capture by U238 between fast and thermal

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Thermal reactor

Fast reactor

epi-

thermal

neutron

resonance

neutron

0.001 0.01 0.1 1 eV 10 100 1keV 10 100 1MeV 10

thermal

neutronFast

neutron

neutron interaction capabilityin thermal neutron region

RED = fission BLUE = absorption

U235

Pu239

Pu241

Neutron energy

Distribution ofneutron energy in nuclear reactor

Seminar 6Feb200718

Potential for producing more fuel than is consumed

Neutron Energy [eV]

Nr.

of

neu

tro

ns

pro

du

ced

by

fiss

ion

Condition for breeding : more than 2 neutron produced Possible for

• Fast neutron (U235, Pu239 , U233) (Fast reactor)• Thermal neutron (U233) (Use Th as fertile)

Seminar 6Feb200719

MOST ELECTRICITY IS PRODUCED BY TURNING AN ELECTRIC GENERATOR

Seminar 6Feb200720

Evolution of reactor technology -US classification of reactor technology by generation-

Seminar 6Feb200721

Current trends in reactor design evolution

Designed considering “User requirements” Design considering 60 years life Design for maintenance – online or during outage Design for easier & shorter construction Use modern technologies - digital control, modern man-machine interface,

- computer-aided design - safety system design guided by Probabilistic Safety assessment etc.

Simplicity by reducing Nr. & rotating components Build safety into the design - increased margins - severe accident measures Complete and standardized designs with pre-licensing

Seminar 6Feb200722

Simplicity - case of BWR steam generating system-

Evolutionarywith

Active Safety

Innovativewith

Passive Safety

Generation 3 & 3+Current or Generation 1 & 2

Seminar 6Feb200723

Shorter construction period

Seminar 6Feb200724

Modern man-machine interface

Old Control Rooms

Modern Control Room- Large mimic display- Trend display- Operating console with touch screen- Other ergonomic considerations

Seminar 6Feb200725

Global trend on nuclear powerNuclear Power ReactorsCharacteristics of nuclear power option - Resources - GHG emission - Potential for non-electric application - EconomicsFuture projectionsIntroducing Nuclear Power

Seminar 6Feb200726

1. ResourcesUranium resources

“Uranium 2005” by OECD/NEA and IAEA Total identified 4.7 Million Ton (<USD130/Kg U) Total undiscovered (Prognosticated & speculative) 10 Million Ton (<USD130/Kg U)

Current consumption = 68,000 Ton/year for 360GWe• R/P with comfortable margin • Closed fuel cycle using FR further extends this margin

R/P (total conventional) R/P (conventional & phosphate)LWR 270 years 675 yearsFast Reactor 8000 years ~20,000 years

Seawater 4500 Million Tons

Source: Uranium 2005

Seminar 6Feb200727

2. GHG emission2. GHG emissionCO2 emission rates from electricity generationCO2 emission rates from electricity generation

CCS: Carbon Capture & StorageCCS: Carbon Capture & Storage

[SOURCE] EC, External Costs – Research Results on Socio-Environmental Damages due to Electricity and Transport, EC Study EUR 20198, Brussels, 2003

Seminar 6Feb200728

Stabilizing CO2 emission rates from Stabilizing CO2 emission rates from Diversifying generation sourceDiversifying generation source

[SOURCE] TEPCO Environmental Report

TEPCO, JapanTEPCO, Japan

Seminar 6Feb200729

3. Non-electric applications

Most of the world’s energy consumption : heat and transportation.

Nuclear Energy has potential for use in these energy sectors currently served by fossil fuels (price volatility and finite supply) without emitting GHG.

ApplicationsHigh temperature (900-1100 deg C)

• Hydrogen (energy carrier) production• Coal liquefaction

Medium temperature (400-600 deg C)• Recovery of oil from tar sand• Chemical processing

Low temperature (less than 200 deg C)• Desalination• District heating

Transportation15%

Heat55%

Electricity30%

Energy consumption by application

Seminar 6Feb200730

New plants Levelized cost study : OECD/NEA and IAEA (2005) least cost option by levelized cost (25-40 years) in recent European country studies (Finland, UK, Belgium, France) Before amortization, not necessarily a preferred option University of Chicago Study (August 2004) proposed federal financial policies for new nuclear plan Energy Policy Act of 2005 (USA)

“External” cost Nuclear power: most ‘external’ costs are internalized Comparative Assessment including externality

• Climate change• Energy security

4. Economics of nuclear power4. Economics of nuclear power

Seminar 6Feb200731

U.S. Electricity “Production Costs”(amortization not included)1995-2005

(Averages in 2005 cents per kilowatt-hour)

Capacity factor (up)Refueling outage duration (down)Forced outage rate (down)

NuclearNuclear

CoalCoal

GasGas

OilOil

Seminar 6Feb200732

The impact of the emission tradingThe impact of the emission trading on the electricity on the electricity generation cost (Prof. generation cost (Prof. VoßVoß , Univ. of Stuttgart) , Univ. of Stuttgart)

Seminar 6Feb200733

Global trend on nuclear powerNuclear Power ReactorsCharacteristics of nuclear power optionFuture projectionsIntroducing Nuclear Power

Seminar 6Feb200734

IAEA’s high projections

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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

GW

(e)

Projection date20012002200320042005

Seminar 6Feb200735

Nuclear Power in IPCC-SRES 4 storylines by 2050Nuclear Power in IPCC-SRES 4 storylines by 2050 (Special Report on Emission Scenarios)(Special Report on Emission Scenarios)

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

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A1T

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REF

Asia

ROW

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Convergence among regions Heterogeneous world

Emphasis on global social & environmental sustainability

Local solution

Seminar 6Feb200736

Ambitious near-term expansion plans

Declared near-term deployment plans (different in various sources )

CURRENT (% of total production) NEAR-TERM EXPANSION PLAN

(Asia)China 6.6 GWe (2.03%) 40 GWe (4%) by 2020 x 6

…2x 1000 MWe plant/yearIndia 3.0 GWe (2.8%) 29.5 GWe (10%) by 2022 x 9ROK 16.8 GWe (44.7%) 26.6 GWe by 2015 x 1.6Pakistan 0.4 GWe (2.8%) 8.5 GWe by 2030 x 20

(Eastern Europe)Russia 21.7 GWe (15.8%) 40 GWe (25%) by 2020 x 2Ukraine: 13.1 GWe (48.5%) 20-22 GWe by 2030 x 1.5

Seminar 6Feb200737

US New Reactor Licensing Applications20122011201020092008200720062005

AP 1

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0 P

rog

ram

Revie

wES

BW

RPro

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m R

evie

wU

nsp

eci

fied

AB

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Revie

wEPR

Pro

gra

m R

evie

w2013

Design Cert

Design Certification

UniStar—Calvert Cliffs (MD) Hearing

UniStar—Nine Mile Pt (NY) Hearing

Design Certification

Dominion—North Anna (VA) Hearing

NuStart—Grand Gulf (MS) Hearing

Entergy—River Bend (LA) Hearing

Unannounced Applicant ESP Hearing

Duke—Cherokee (SC)

Hearing

Progress Energy—Harris (NC) Hearing

HearingSouth Carolina E&G—Summer

Progress Energy—TBD (FL) Hearing

Southern—Vogtle (GA) Hearing

FPL No Site or Vendor Specified Hearing

NuStart—Bellefonte (AL) Hearing

Amarillo Power Hearing

Vogtle ESP Hearing

North Anna ESP Hearing

Grand Gulf ESP Hearing

UniStar—EPR—COL 3 Hearing

UniStar—EPR—COL 4 Hearing

UniStar—EPR—COL 5 Hearing

NRG Energy—South Texas Project Hearing

Duke ESP Hearing

Duke ESP Hearing

Unannounced Applicant COL Hearing

Clinton ESP Hearing

Courtesy of Mr. Wang, Bechtel

Seminar 6Feb200738

rising expectation : background and prospect

Background; Recognition of nuclear power as an important option in the nation’s future energy portfolio

• Confidence from operational trend (Stable and competitive in many places around the world)

• Growing need for energy in developing countries• Environmental concern (GHG emission, air pollution)• Concern over energy supply security

Expansion will depend on;• Diligence and vigilance in safe operation of current fleet• Continued vigilance in safeguard• Economic competitiveness, Financing arrangement• Implementation of waste disposal• Public perception• Individual nation’s policy on environment, security etc.

Seminar 6Feb200739

Agency’s approach in providing support

Recommend comprehensive assessment of infrastructure preparedness to avoid missing factors for effective implementation of NE plan to achieve the use of NE in safe, secure, technically sound manner

Recommend the use of relevant Agency’s document Recommend regional approach for efficiency Through TCP (if TC recipient country) Inter-departmental coordinated response Nuclear Power Support Group (NPSG)

To ensure coordinated response to MS request for supportTo share information in the Agency etc.

Seminar 6Feb200740

Agency’s ongoing/planned activities

Guidance documents

Released “Basic infrastructure for a nuclear power projects” (TECDOC 1513, June 2006)

Released “Potential for sharing nuclear power infrastructure between countries (TECDOC 1522, October 2006)

Preparing publication of new documents• Planning for the first NPP (yet-to-be-published)• Milestone document (yet-to-be-drafted) and associated

measuring indexAssessment of all previously developed Agency

documentation & update : ongoing

Seminar 6Feb200741

By the time of:• Formal Intention To Implement Nuclear Power Program• Ready to issue Invitation To Bid• Ready for Commercial Operation

Expected preparedness and competency in key areas of;• Legal Framework/Regulatory Framework• Managing Organization• Training and Human Resources• Sites & Supporting Facilities• Financial arrangement• Public understanding/Public involvement in decision-making• Grid • Fuel cycle • Safeguards and security applications etc.

Use : MS’s self-assessment & review by international experts for assessment of the preparedness, prioritization & identification

of areas for further work/Agency’s cooperation

Milestones in the matrix form

Seminar 6Feb200742

Agency’s ongoing/planned activities

TCP (Technical Cooperation Project) for new build Current : 6 TCP including coupling with desalination 2007-8 : 12 countries plus 2 regional projects

Response to specific requestsWorkshops and Conferences

“Issues for the Introduction of Nuclear Power” (Dec2006) Similar workshop planned for 2007 w/focus on milestone doc. Regional workshops planned Participation to regional conferences on NE 2nd Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Power in the 21st Century

Institutional arrangements International cooperation in Fuel cycle, Licensing, Financing …

Seminar 6Feb200743

SUMMARY

New capacity addition dwindled after mid 80’s Increased availability Active programme for plant life management and power

uprating Technology evolution continues Globally growing interest to the role of nuclear power Agency’s support to developing country’s

infrastructure building through; Guidance documents and review/support missions Workshops and Conferences TCP under inter-departmental coordination

Seminar 6Feb200744

…Thank you for your attention

Seminar 6Feb200745

Guideline documents to assist the first NPP Plan

Already published in the last 20+ years, but needs updating• TRS 224 “Interaction of Grid Characteristics with Design and performance of NPPs (1983)

• TRS-392 “Design Features to Facilitate Safeguards at Future Water Cooled NPPS” (1981)• TRS 200 “Manpower Development for Nuclear Power: (1980).• Introduction of Nuclear Power: A Guidebook, TRS No. 217 (1982)• Promotion and Financing of Nuclear Power Programmes in Developing Countries, (1987)• TRS 281 “Developing Industrial Infrastructures to Support a Programme of Nuclear Power” (1988)• Policy Planning for Nuclear Power: An Overview of the Main Issues and Requirements (1993)• Choosing the Nuclear Power Option: Factors to be considered (1996)• TRS No. 396 “Economic Evaluation of Bids for NPPs” ( 1999) • TecDoc 1259 “Nuclear Power Programme Planning : An Integrated Approach “ (2001)