Presentation to 40th Meeting of theAPEC Energy Working Group

Brunei Darussalam24-25 November 2010

APEC Energy Ministers Instructions on Nuclear Power at EMM-9Ministers noted that “a growing number of

interested economies are using nuclear power to diversify their energy mix and limit carbon emissions.”

Ministers instructed EWG “to undertake a Nuclear Power Emissions Reduction Potential Study (NUPERPS) on the potential for existing and planned nuclear power plants in interested APEC economies to reduce carbon emissions.”

Step 1 – Nuclear Plant DataFigure out how many nuclear plants exist,

are under construction, and are planned in interested APEC economies. Sources of data include energy information agencies, electricity generating companies, and nuclear power vendors. Data are collected and compiled worldwide by the IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna.

Step 2 – Estimate Fossil Fuel Displacement and CO2 SavingsCollect estimates already made by various

APEC economies of how much coal, gas and oil used for electricity generation is already being displaced or could be displaced by nuclear plants.

Also collect estimates from APEC economies of the resulting reductions in carbon emissions.

Collect information through a combination of literature review and survey of interested economies.

Step 3 – Model Carbon Emissions Reductions by APEC EconomySystematically model emissions reductions from

existing and planned nuclear plants in each interested APEC economy, using a least-cost generating model. This would require obtaining detailed information on the generating mix in each economy.

There are many available models from which to choose and several consulting firms with long experience in applying such models for electric utility clients.

Could add results from different models in different economies, or choose a common model.

Step 4 – Disseminate FindingsCompile and publicize study results to raise

public awareness of the potential of nuclear power to limit global greenhouse gas emissions. This would be done through APEC website and journal, trade press, and ministerial meetings.

Simplified Analytic ApproachLook at how many tons of CO2 would be emitted in

a reference case with project nuclear generation.Look at how many tons of CO2 would be emitted if

nuclear generation remains constant at 2010 levels.Compare the “reference case” and “constant

nuclear” case to find the difference in CO2 emissions.

Caveat: Model uses average fuel mix for electricity generation in each of several regions – not as accurate as a detailed electricity model for each separate grid.

Quick Trial Run – EIA WEPSEIA assumes nuclear generation short term – through

2020 – based on current plans and projections of industry and governments for plant construction.

EIA assumes nuclear generation long term – after 2020 – based on a combination of announced plans or goals, economics, geopolitics, technology advances, environmental policies, uranium availability.

Initial run had a glitch – model grew USA nuclear generation just like in the reference case even when we asked it to hold nuclear generation constant. (So have to adjust APEC totals later to add in United States.)

EIA WEPS Reference Case: Nuclear Generation in Billion kWh

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

USA 813 834 883 886 886 893

Canada 110 113 127 134 142 158

Mexico 11 11 11 11 11 18

Japan 305 311 342 358 388 417

Korea 142 175 218 233 254 266

AUS/NZ

0 0 0 0 0 0

Russia 155 197 258 324 345 364

China 65 186 335 437 512 598

Ind/VN 48 61 89 105 123 141

APEC 1648 1887 2262 2488 2667 2858

EIA WEPS Reference Case: Carbon Emissions in Million Tonnes

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

USA 5,560 5,811 5,966 6,105 6,259 6,412

Canada 551 553 554 579 609 643

Mexico 422 451 499 568 641 741

Japan 1,069 1,102 1,114 1,106 1,085 1,064

Korea 506 535 570 627 687 757

AUS/NZ

489 512 517 530 546 567

Russia 1,657 1,642 1,648 1,666 1,715 1,811

China 6,811 7,716 9,057 10,514 11,945 13,326

Ind/VN 1,741 1,946 2,163 2,478 2,882 3,362

APEC 18,806 20,266 22,088 24,173 26,369 28,684

Increase in Carbon Emissions with No New Nuclear (Million Tonnes)

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

USA

Canada 0 0 8 12 17 27

Mexico 0 0 0 0 4 7

Japan 0 0 14 21 35 53

Korea 0 16 40 51 67 77

AUS/NZ

0 0 0 0 0 0

Russia 0 18 34 61 76 93

China 0 95 212 292 352 418

Ind/VN 0 6 20 33 51 68

APEC less USA

0 134 329 470 602 744

Next StepsWhich economies are interested?Which economies have available models?Which economies can contribute estimates?Should we start by adding up estimated

emissions reductions from models in various economies?

Should we go on to use a common model?