Nuclear Proliferation
Theo Farrell, CSI Lecture 4, 2011
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Nuclear Biological
Chemical
Radiological
Big bombs
Fissile material = plutonium 239 and uranium 235
Fission warhead = kilotons TNT
Fusion warhead = megatons TNT
Dawn of the nuclear age
‘Anglo-Saxon science has developed a new explosive 2,000 times as destructive as any know before For all we know, we have created a Frankenstein! We must assume that with the passage of only a little time, an improved form of the new weapon we use today can be turned against us.’
NBC Radio, August 1945
The nuclear revolution
‘Thus far the chief purpose of our military establishment has been to win wars. From now on its chief purpose must be to avert them. It can have almost no other useful purpose.’
Bernard Brodie (1946)
Weapons of terror
‘There is an immense gulf between the atomic and hydrogen bomb. The atomic bomb, with all its terrors, did not carry us outside the scope of human control or manageable events in thought and action, in peace and war. But (with the H-bomb), the entire foundation of human affairs is revolutionized, and mankind placed in a situation both measureless and ladden with terror.’
Winston Churchill (1955)
Nuclear armed states
NPT Date Warheads
Non-NPT Date Warheads
Russia 1949 4650 (12000)
Israel 1966 80
US 1945 2468 (9600)
France 1960 300 Pakistan 1998 100-110
China 1964 180 (240)
India 1974 60-80
UK 1952 <160 (225)
North Korea
2006 <10
International co-operation
Partial Test Ban Treaty, 1963
Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), 1968
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, 1996
Convention on Physical Protection of Nuclear Material, 1987
Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty, under negotiation
G8 Global Partnership against Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction
NPT pillars
1. Non-proliferation – undertake not to ‘receive, manufacture or acquire’ nukes (Art. II) – monitoring by IAEA
2. Disarmament – non-binding obligation on P5 (Art. VI)
3. Peaceful use of nuclear energy – the ‘Achilles heal’ of NPT?
* Right to withdraw from NPT (Art. X)
Why build nuclear weapons?
1.The security model (Soviet Union)
2.The domestic politics model (India)
3.The norms model (France)
Scott D. Sagan, ‘Why do states build nuclear weapons?’ Int. Security 21: 3 (1996/97).
Should we worry?
Kenneth Waltz
Neorealism – nukes make states cautious
spread of nukes is okay
Scott Sagan
Organisation theory and nuclear accidents
States cannot be trusted with nukes
More reasons to worry…
Emerging nuclear powers tend to have small and rudimentary nuclear forces that are:
Vulnerable to first-strike
Vulnerable to accidents
Vulnerable to unauthorised seizure
Nuclear alarmism – myths
1. End of Cold War increased incentives for proliferation – world has now reached ‘tipping point.’
2. Second Nuclear Age is less predictable and involves more complex and dangerous rivalries
3. Today’s ‘rogue’ states and terrorist organisations are less deterrable than Cold War rivals
Iran’s Nuclear Program
IAEA in 2003 find Iran in breach of NPT
Iran halts nuc prog but Western intell agencies disagree on how long
NIE 2007: Iran’s program still stalled
US Director Nat Intell (Feb 2010): Iran able to produce weapon in next few years
Nightmare scenario
Israel’s track record (Iraq 1981)
Indo-Pak
India: 5 nuke tests on 11 & 13 May 1998
Pakistan: 6 nuke tests on 30 & 31 May 1998
Indo-Pak Wars (1947-48, 1965, 1971 and 1999) and dispute over Kashmir
‘Stability/instability paradox’
Pakistani supported terrorist attacks on Indian Parliament (Dec 2001) and Mumbai (Nov 2008)
India’s new ‘Cold Start’ military doctrine: five divisions in 96 hours
Pakistani’s ‘flexible response’ nuclear posture