29
Nuclear Proliferation and Intelligence Dr Michael S. Goodman Department of War Studies [email protected]
22
‘I ask you to stop and think for a moment what it would mean to have
nuclear weapons in so many hands, in the hands of countries large and small, stable and unstable, responsible and
irresponsible, scattered throughout the world. There would be no rest for anyone then, no stability, no real
security, and no chance of effective disarmament’
33
‘…this was a major intelligence success’
44
‘…a remarkable feat to the work of the intelligence agencies’
55
‘such unadvertised intelligence successes, though, pale against the
scale of the proliferation threat’
66
77
88
99
‘the process of reading your opponent’s mind’
1010
‘I share a general belief that President Saddam Hussein would like to have an atomic bomb and
would use it if he could. But could he acquire one?’
1111
‘I share a general belief that President Saddam Hussein would like to have an atomic bomb and
would use it if he could. But could he acquire one?’
Strategic Intention
1212
‘I share a general belief that President Saddam Hussein would like to have an atomic bomb and
would use it if he could. But could he acquire one?’
Strategic Intention
Tactical Intention
1313
‘I share a general belief that President Saddam Hussein would like to have an atomic bomb and
would use it if he could. But could he acquire one?’
Strategic Intention
Tactical IntentionCapability
1414
Threat = Capabilities + Intentions
1515
Capability = Intention?
1616
Nuclear Weapons Programmes:
Money
Scientific Infrastructure
Raw Material
Industrial and Engineering Prowess
1919
Capability
Theoretical Capability
Practical Capability
2020
Capability Questions
What is the state of the scientific infrastructure in country X?What level of training in nuclear-related subjects is on offer?Have scientists studied in other countries?What engineering and scientific materials can be produced indigenously?What will be needed from outside the country?
2121
2222
Intent
Strategic Intention
Tactical Intention
‘the real challenge for intelligence is going to be getting to our political
leadership not just judgments about capabilities, but judgments about real
intentions. And that is tough.’
2424
Proliferation = Capabilities + Intentions
2525
‘One might anticipate a rough correlation between the
possession of certain national capabilities and a propensity toward nuclear armament.’
2626
‘There were a number of individuals and companies which supplied the
components but were unaware of the implications because some of the
components were similar to components used in oil drilling, water treatment and equipment for several
other general uses.’
www.rmp.gov.my
‘any nuclear threat related to terrorism must arise from
unstable nuclear states losing control of nuclear material.’
‘state which possesses nuclear weapons and are not fully in control of their territory
or of their citizens.’
2929
Nuclear Proliferation and Intelligence
Dr Michael S. GoodmanDepartment of War [email protected]
