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06/02/20081
Nuclear Weapons & Climate Change The connection
GUERRES ET ECOCIDES:responsabilités et engagements
l’Université du Québec à Montréalle 6 février 2008
Adele BuckleyLes Conférences Pugwash Canada
06/02/20082
Global societies face two crises
Nuclear conflict would destroy life on earth – BUT we have not achieved nuclear disarmament
Climate change could make the earth uninhabitable– BUT effective action has not occurred
International tensions will increase
06/02/20083
Effects of climate change
Disruptions to human security and the economy
Human suffering, especially in developing countries
Armed conflicts over resources Involvement of states that have nuclear
weapons, and threats of use
06/02/20084
Avoidance of double disaster
Climate change acts as a threat multiplier Nuclear disarmament must be achieved
before the most serious effects of climate change are upon us
06/02/20085
Undermining the world food supply
Droughts, floods, change of growing season, pest infestations, loss of arable land to food production>>>> stress>>>> open conflict
“Regional” nuclear war, cools the climate BUT adds long lasting particulates to the atmosphere. For years: reduction of solar energy; reduction of precipitation; loss of crops and arable land due to radiation
06/02/20086
Climate induced food stress made worse by “regional” nuclear conflict
06/02/20087
Water availability
Unsustainable water consumption – already exceeds natural replacement by 1/3.
– WATER USERS: Industry, agriculture, cities & individuals Glacial melting to extinction – many global
communities rely on glacier water Ecological best practices – water should stay in its
own watershed; resist pressure to export bulk water Water wars? Middle East – serious water problems; nuclear
threats? Israel has nuclear weapons; proliferation is possible in other ME states (Iran, Saudi Arabia…)
06/02/20088
Economic slump
Economic stress through measures taken to combat climate change – emission regulation, cost of carbon (trading and tax), infrastructure changes (e.g.water), alternate energy technology, carbon capture
In the past, war has lifted a country to economic viability. Very dangerous, when at least 8 states have nuclear weapons
06/02/20089
Large scale population movement
Coastal flooding will result in millions of people seeking refuge internally in their own country and in nearby countries. EXAMPLES OF PROBLEMS:
– Border tensions will be increased– India and Pakistan [possessors of nuclear weapons] will
experience extreme tension, will require army personnel, leading to a built-in conflict situation in S.E. Asia
– Developed nations: ill prepared for rescue and evacuation (e.g. Hurricane Katrina)
– Infrastructure destruction: 40% of Asian population lives within 45 miles of coastlines
06/02/200810
Military Operations
“We found that climate instability will lead to instability in geopolitics and impact American military operations around the world,” said retired General Gordon Sullivan, chairman of the U.S. Military Advisory Board, releasing the report “National Security and the Threat of Climate Change” April 16, 2007 (1)
06/02/200811
Technical personnel, material and resources
We need an all-out “war” effort to adapt to climate change
– Not enough new science and technical graduates– Not enough resources being applied
At the same time, the nuclear weapons industry has been expanded in the U.S., and other countries consider having their own nuclear weapons
– Attractive job opportunities are offered to new graduates and skilled personnel BUT we need their work in the next 2 decades to get control of greenhouse gases
06/02/200812
Consequences of nuclear terrorism or a nuclear accident
POSSIBILITIES A nuclear weapon explosion – accidental, or
deliberate by terrorists A dirty bomb releasing widespread radiation An accident in nuclear power generation
CONSEQUENCES [climate change problems get worse]
Regional water systems compromised Land that previously grew food is contaminated
06/02/200813
Nuclear energy renaissancea favoured choice for India, China, U.S. and others
Accidents must be preventedTerrorists must not have access
_____There must be no opportunity for proliferation_____ IAEA, the United Nations “watchdog”, can perform inspection and verification in non-
nuclear weapons states that have signed the Non-proliferation Treaty. There is no inspection for nuclear weapons states.
IAEA provides extensive technical advice to nuclear power plant managers, BUT it has no authority to enforce
A centralized supply system for nuclear fuel may be established. NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) & WANO (World Ass’n of Nuclear Operators) provide
a framework and assistance, but there are gaps in the protection offered there. The present control system is dangerous and is inadequate to prevent accidents
and mandate sound operation. Citizens around the globe must have much better protection
06/02/200814
PROPOSAL: Universal inspection and verification
Every nuclear reactor has a global presence A universal inspection system must include new
owners in developing countries AND all the nuclear weapons states, and all their nuclear reactors
As soon as possible, third party verification must be an integral part of the system. The “third party” inspection team would be international and must have no conflict of interest
06/02/200815
US Federal Audit showed that NRC staff did not verify the authenticity of technical safety information submitted by nuclear power plant operators. “Citizens Petition to Halt Flawed U.S. Nuclear Plant Relicensing” [ENS Jan 3 08]BELOW: Ginna, Oyster Creek, and Indian Point nuclear power plants
06/02/200816
Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT)
FMCT moves us toward nuclear disarmament and ALSO connects to climate change
Could be a first step toward safety for all citizens (who have been encouraged to believe that nuclear power is the energy solution to combat climate change)
Because…FMCT requires comprehensive verification, so it would set in place a universal system that could be extended for inspection and verification of all nuclear reactors.
06/02/200817
Arctic Climate Change
Global warming is relatively greater in the polar regions
Climate change endangers the lifestyle of the indigenous people of the Arctic, and threatens the long term survivability of the wildlife
HOWEVER, there are new opportunities for the circumpolar nations
06/02/200818
Arctic territory in Canada
06/02/200819
Opportunity – a Nuclear- Weapon-Free-Zone (NWFZ) in the Arctic
Ice-free navigation through the Northwest Passage will be possible [CLIMATE CHANGE!]
Now Canada must have a greater presence in its Arctic lands and waters
Canada could declare a NWFZ in the Canadian waters of the Northwest Passage
A UN General Assembly resolution could call for NWFZ north of the Arctic circle
06/02/200820
NWFZ and nuclear disarmament
Northwest Passage, undersea, is convoluted, shallow, inhospitable to submarines
The Nuclear Weapons States (NWS) have nuclear submarines in waters north of the Arctic Circle – NWFZ would be a significant achievement toward nuclear disarmament
Withdrawal of submarines would be evidence of great statesmanship– others would follow?
06/02/200821
Recent Studies on Security and Climate Change
1. “National Security and the Threat of Climate Change”, U.S. Military Advisory Board; report April 16, 2007
2. “An Uncertain Future: Law Enforcement, National Security and Climate Change”, Chris Abbott, Bristol University, for Oxford Research Group, UK; January, 2007
3. “Climate Change and Conflict”, International Crisis Group www.crisisgroup.org; Nov, 2007
06/02/200822
Prognosis: Two global problems – climate change and nuclear weapons
THESE CRISES CAN BE HANDLED WITH PRESENT KNOWLEDGE AND USE OF EXISTING TECHNOLOGY
POLITICAL WILL IS MISSING ACTION NOW - Individuals and NGOs can raise
awareness:– get understanding and involvement of the public– push governments to act, nationally and internationally to
establish broad-based international coalitions