Second Roland Berger study on the global nuclear market
March 2014
Nuclear worldwide: Where we stand 3 years after Fukushima
2 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
Roland Berger study on the 2030-2050 global nuclear market – Lessons learned
> The global nuclear market continues to grow, driven mainly by Russia and China
> Since Fukushima (March 2011) and despite decisions in some countries to phase out nuclear energy in the short or long term
– About 70 reactors are currently under construction around the world in 2014, half of them in China and Russia
– Installed base decreased by only 9 units: +13 new operations, +2 restarts and -24 shutdown, of which 16 were driven by the disaster and 8 were at the end of their operating lifecycles
> The Roland Berger study shows that global nuclear installed capacity could increase 26% by 2030 in a low scenario (from 435 units today to 489 units, or 372 GW vs. 470 GW)
> Roland Berger estimates that of 581 nuclear projects planned or announced and assuming highly favorable circumstances, only 123 to 224 are likely to materialize
> The nuclear market is at a crossroads: By 2030, 70% of nuclear reactors will be between 40 and 60 years old, and governments will have to decide whether to renew or make a transition
– Regarding nuclear power's lifecycle (decisions, construction, commissioning), the 2015-2030 period is a critical time for the replacement market
– Successful players will have current experience in the construction of new plants, suitable product portfolios and strong financial backing
> The Roland Berger study shows that in 2050, assuming a conservative case, nuclear's share of global electricity capacity may be lower than in 2030 (by approx. 1%). However, installed capacity may increase by 35 GW. These assumptions depend on both the replacement rates in major nuclear countries (France, Russia and possibly the United States) and nuclear development by new entrants (Middle East or Asian countries)
3 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx © Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Contents Page
A. Overview of the NPP base as of 2014 and main developments since 2011 4
B. Forecast of global nuclear development up to 2030 15
C. Forecast of global nuclear development up to 2050 20
4 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
A. Overview of the NPP base as of 2014 and main developments since 2011
5 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
Public forecasts on nuclear capacity (IAEA) have been revised down-ward in the recent past, but still indicate growth in installed capacity
Approach used – Nuclear capacity in GWe
Source: IAEA, Roland Berger analysis
Key facts
> Public estimates were revised downward following the Fukushima accident with a scenario between 546 GWe to 803 GWe adjusted down-ward to a range of 501 GWe to 746 GWe
> IAEA continued to lower its estimates over the past two years – 722 GW in a high scenario and 435 in a low scenario
> However, nuclear is still expected to grow from its current level
> In 2011, RB estimated global nuclear generating capacity would grow to 688 GWe by 2030
RB estimates pre-Fukushima 2011
546 501435
257245
287
372
803
Installed base
2014
IAEA Vision 2030
post-Fukushima 2011
746
IAEA Vision 2030
pre-Fukushima 2010
722
IAEA Vision
2030 as of 2013
688
Additional capacity vs. low scenario (high perspective)
Low scenario
Additional
capacity
by 2030
(GW)
431 374 340
174 129 63
High
Low
6 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
Although the installed base of operating reactors has decreased since Fukushima, construction of 18 new reactors has started
2413
2014
435
Shutdown Restart
2
New operating
plants
2011
444 13 7218
2014 Reactors
going online
Construction
suspended
2
New reactors
in construction
2011
691)
> Comments:
– 13 projects under construction went online, including anexperimental reactor in China (not taken into account in the2011 RB view)
– 2 reactors restarted after long-term shutdown (Canada)
– 24 shut down, of which 22 are permanent shutdowns
> Comments:
– 54 reactors still under construction during 2011-2014
– 18 projects planned in 2011 started construction phase(including the CAREM prototype in Argentina)
– Construction of two reactors was halted (Bulgaria)
– 13 reactors went online, mainly in China
Operating Under construction
Nuclear fleet evolution [no. of reactors]
Source: WNA, PRIS, Roland Berger analysis
1) Includes the Chinese Experimental Fast Reactor (CEFR) not taken into account in 2011
7 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
We revised our assumptions on planned and announced projects – Decrease in projects considered likely depending on scenario (1/2)
New nuclear reactors considered likely by 2030 [no. of reactors] – RB's view
Source: WNA, PRIS, Roland Berger analysis
19
19
123
243
35
Additional likely
from new projects
New construction
considered likely in 2011
Revised position
- unlikely to likely
-18 -139
Out of new build/
under construction
Scope of reactors taken
into account in 2014
-90
54
224
Revised position
- likely to unlikely
High Low
High scenario
Low scenario
8 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
We revised our assumptions on planned and announced projects – Decrease in projects considered likely depending on scenario (2/2)
Source: WNA, PRIS, Roland Berger analysis
Reactors (re)stated as "likely"
> 9 projects expected to become operational in China
by 2030 (of which 4 additional units in Fanchenggang
and 2 in Taishan)
> Projects Barakah 3 & 4 expected to be added soon to
current units 1 and 2 under construction in the UAE
> Four projects expected to become operational in
South Korea by 2025 (Shin Hanul 3 & 4, Shin Kori 7
& 8)
> Planned projects in Turkey (Akkuyu and Sinop) are
being seriously considered
> Additional projects mainly in Bangladesh, India,
Egypt, Netherlands and the UK
Reactors not "likely" anymore
> No new nuclear reactors in Italy (5 units)
> No new nuclear reactors in Switzerland (3 projects cancelled)
> Unlikely Sellafield 1 & 2 will be developed in the UK
> Unlikely renewal at Darlington 1 & 2 in Canada
> Unlikely renewal of some US reactors
> Suspension of Fukushima I-7&8 in Japan
> Several projects reconsidered in India (18)
New nuclear reactors considered likely by 2030 [no. of reactors] – RB's view
9 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
Nuclear plants
Source: IAEA, WNA, Roland Berger analysis
> 435 operating reactors in
31 countries
> 372 GWe net capacity
> 61% of reactors (68% of
capacity) located in the US,
Western Europe and Japan
> Average reactor age: 27 years
World map of nuclear installed base as of February 2014
Key figures
Nuclear installed base is mainly concentrated in a few countries (1/2)
10 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
1
111
2
22
2
22
34
4
45
66
7
79
1015
16
192121
23
3348
58
Armenia
Netherlands
Slovenia Iran
Argentina
Romania Mexico
South Africa
Brazil
Bulgaria
Pakistan Slovak Republic
Hungary
Finland Switzerland
Czech Republic
Taiwan Belgium
Spain
Germany Sweden
Ukraine
United Kingdom
Canada
India Mainland China
Republic of Korea
Russian Federation Japan
France
United States 100
COUNTRIES WITH MAJOR NUCLEAR POWER
COUNTRIES WITH LESS NUCLEAR POWER
Country breakdown of installed base [no. of units, MWe net]
∑ = 435 reactors
372 GWe
Source: IAEA, WNA, Roland Berger analysis
Nuclear installed base is mainly concentrated in a few countries (2/2)
(98,560)
(63,130)
(16,860)
(5,308)
(13,500)
(9,231)
(13,107)
(9,408)
(12,068)
(7,114)
(5,927)
(5,028)
(3,804)
(3,308)
(2,752)
(1,889)
(725)
(1,884)
(1,816)
(1,906)
(1,860)
(1,530)
(1,300)
(935)
(915)
(688)
(482)
(375)
(42,388)
(23,643)
(20,739)
11 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
Age of nuclear power plants in operation worldwide as of 2014 [no. of units]
Source: WNA, IAEA, Roland Berger analysis
557
1012
1517
9
12101111
22
8
19
26
40
25
202019
9
54
10
755
332
8
2
9
32
634
1
56433
44
Years
43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 45
Average age: 27 years Operating experience: 12,114 years
322 plants will be between 40 and 59 years old by 2030 (280 GW) – Topic of extending operation to be addressed
10 plants will be over 60 years old by 2030
(5 GW) – likely to be shut down
With a current average age of 27 years, more than 70% of the existing installed base will be between 40 and 59 years old by 2030
12 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
5
6
10
France
Finland
Brazil
Belarus
United Arab Emirates
Ukraine
Slovak Republic
Pakistan
Japan
Taiwan
Argentina
United States
Republic of Korea
India
Russian Federation
Mainland China 28
Country breakdown of the NPPs under construction [no. of units, MWe net]
Comments
> Most of the NPPs under construction are
located in East Asia and Eastern
Europe:
– China (28 units) and Russia (10
units) have the lion's share
– Very few projects in mature developed
countries
> All NPPs under construction should be
in operation by 2020
∑ = 72 reactors 70 GWe
Source: IAEA, WNA, Roland Berger analysis
70 GW of nuclear capacity is under construction around the world, half of this in China and Russia
13 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
Country breakdown of NPPs planned or announced [no. of units]
2
2
2
2
4
6
7
14
16
2
4
2
2
8
6
11
20
2
18
3
20
16
9
14
Saudi Arabia
Republic of Korea
United Kingdom
India 59
Russian Federation 68
26
Mainland China
Finland
Vietnam
Czech Republic
Ukraine
214 84
56
Source: IAEA, WNA, Roland Berger analysis
We used public data to identify over 581 proposed projects – Only 123 to 224 considered as "likely" to be operating by 2030 (1/2)
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
6
6
1
2
1
1
3
2
2
2
12
2
2
6
2
3
2
2
5
Turkey
United States 30
Bulgaria
Bangladesh
Iran
Slovak Republic
Belarus
United Arab Emirates
Hungary
Romania
Proposed
RB high
RB low
∑ RB view low = 123 reactors (135 GWe)
∑ RB view high =
224 reactors (255 GWe)
∑ Public data =
581 reactors (more1) than 600 GWe)
1) Some projects did not report net capacity
14 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
Country breakdown of the NPPs planned or announced [no. of units]
0
Slovenia 1 1
0
Mexico 8 0
0
Canada 5 0
0
Malaysia 4 0
0
Algeria 2 0
0
Egypt 8
4 0
South Africa 6
2 0
Kazakhstan 3 0
0
Armenia 1 1
0
Indonesia 4
0
Source: IAEA, WNA, Roland Berger analysis
We used public data to identify over 581 proposed projects – Only 123 to 224 considered as "likely" to be operating by 2030 (2/2)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
2
1
6
1
4
4
3
5
2
Jordan
Albania
Japan 9 9
Brazil 8
Argentina
Poland
Chile
Pakistan 8
6
Thailand
Netherlands
RB low
RB high
Proposed
1) Some projects did not report net capacity
∑ RB view low = 123 reactors (135 GWe)
∑ RB view high =
224 reactors (255 GWe)
∑ Public data =
581 reactors (more1) than 600 GWe)
15 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
B. Forecast of global nuclear development up to 2030
16 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
We estimate global installed nuclear capacity to grow from 372 GWe to between 470 GWe and 637 GWe from 2014 to 2030
North America
Source: IAEA , Roland Berger analysis
Latin America
Western Europe Eastern Europe East Asia
98
239
168
268
147
Middle East and
Southern Asia
Africa
68 89109 124 117
68 79 7292104
2 5 10 2 9 25 2758 39 59
6 7 15 6 10
-18/+25 -25/-1
NPP development scenarios to 2030 [2014-2030, GWe]
372435
722
470
637
TOTAL WORLD
94118
143 101 119
-49/+7 -28/-8 +11/+36 +4/+24 +49/+170 +70/+141
+1/+9 +0/+4 +3/+8 +0/+7
+2/+33 +14/+34
+63/+350 +98/+265
RB high 2030 RB low 2030 Public high Public low 2030 Feb 2014
17 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
Japan and China represent 40% of the total deviation between the low and high scenarios with a gap of approx. 35 GW between the two
Countries with significant variation between RB estimates low-high [2030, GWe]
Japan China
Comments
> Low estimates are more conservative in terms of the potential for extending the operating life of the installed base and completion of planned projects
– We estimate the operation extension of existing plants to 60 years could be impacted if safety inspections produce negative results
– Planned NPPs could be scrapped due to a political shift toward less nuclear (driven by strong public opinion)
Comments
42
18
16
-36 GW
RB high 2030
57
RB low 2030
3
21
Operating as of Feb 2014
New construction
Source: World Nuclear Association, Roland Berger
> Low estimates are more conservative in terms of the potential for new plants likely to be operational by 2030
– Among potential operational starts by 2030, we estimate that NPP sites with existing plants are more likely to be extended with additional units than other sites being built from the ground up in a high perspective – this results in 33 GW additional new starts vs. the low case
123
89
1717
RB low 2030
106
RB high 2030
-33 GW
140
New construction
Operating as of Feb 2014
18 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
Sensitivities for US mainly driven by lifetime extension of installed base, whereas Russia has been challenged on new construction
Countries with significant variation between RB low and high estimates [2030, GWe]
United States Russia
Comments
> Low estimates are more conservative in terms of the potential for extending the operational life of the installed base and completing planned projects
– We estimate the operational life extension of existing plants to 60 years can be implemented for 18 plants that have not yet received license extension, which means a difference of approx. 13 GW
– Planned NPPs are not considered in a low scenario in terms of a strong incentive to develop gas, which means a difference of approx. 6 GW
Comments
9481
13
7
-20 GW
RB high 2030
108
RB low 2030
88
Operating as of Feb 2014
New construction
Source: World Nuclear Association, Roland Berger
> Low estimates are more conservative in terms of the potential for new constructions likely to be operational by 2030
– We estimate that the 3rd and 4th blocks of Leningrad 2 will be completed 5 years later
– Only 2 blocks of Kursk 2 will be built by 2030
– Nizhniy Novgorod is not planned in the low scenario
13 13
33
21
RB low 2030
34
RB high 2030
-13 GW
46
New construction
Operating as of Feb 2014
19 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
C. Forecast of global nuclear development up to 2050
20 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
20
Global nuclear capacity development up to 2050 will mainly depend on renewal in mature countries and unannounced new projects
Reactors currently operating
Currently planned or announced reactors – in operation before 2050
Reactors currently under construction
Reactors delayed to after 2030
Additional nuclear capacity resulting from
> Installed base
– Additional extension of the current installed base's
operational life (40/60/80 years)
– Replacement of reactors scheduled to be shutdown
> New construction projects
– Extension of existing nuclear sites
– New projects/new plants/new nuclear sites
GWe
2014 2030 2050
> 2 scenarios
– Low scenario
– High scenario
1
2
Source: Roland Berger analysis
Development of nuclear installed capacity to 2050 [GWe]
21 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
We used both general trends and drivers at country level to assess nuclear development up to 2050
General questions Drivers at country level
Key questions to be addressed when preparing scenarios to 2050
> Do we believe in total/partial renewal of existing nuclear capacities?
> What can we assume regarding extending operational life?
Source: Roland Berger analysis
Current mature nuclear countries
Entrants/ emerging nuclear countries
Newcomers/ greenfield
> Do we believe in further expansion of the nuclear installed base?
> What potential developments are there in nuclear technology and which of these could support the renaissance of nuclear power?
> Do we see new entrants in developing regions such as Africa or Southeast Asia?
Transversal issue
1
2
3
4
5
Ambition to maintain/develop nuclear
Evolution of electricity demand forecast up to 2050 in each country – taking into account current energy savings trends
Alternatives to nuclear power
Position regarding extending operational life
Trade-off between developing accessible energy, environmental sustainability and energy security
22 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
We estimate global installed nuclear power generating capacity between 504 GWe & 1020 GWe by 2050, depending on the scenario
8,922 GW
5.2%
World total
of installed
generating
capacity1)
% nuclear
504470
2050 2030
0.4% growth/year
12,280 GW
4.1%
8,922 GW
7.1%
World total
of installed
generating
capacity1)
% nuclear
637
1,020
2.4% growth/year
2050 2030
12,280 GW
8.3%
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 Roland Berger analysis
1) IEA data for 2030 – For 2050, RB assumption based on IEA data to 2035 (additional capacity p.a. over 2030-35 maintained up to 2050)
Nuclear installed base capacity from 2030 to 2050 [GWe]
Low scenario High scenario
23 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
Beyond 2030, there might be a huge market for nuclear replacement, mainly driven by the US, France and Japan
Number of reactors to be potentially renewed 2030-2050 – Top 10 countries
Comments
> The Unites States will see 90% of their
capacity up for renewal by 2050
> France could represent a huge market
for NPP replacement with 47 units
expected to be ready for renewal by
2050
> Japan's future energy policy is still
unclear, but possibly 18 to 28 reactors
could be replaced between 2030-2050
(depending on operating life extension)
> Russia and Ukraine each could see 11
units being renewed 2030-2050
4
4
7
8
10
11
11
28
47
91
4
3
7
8
8
11
11
18
47
77United States
Russian Federation
Japan
France
Czech Republic
Finland
Sweden
Republic of Korea
Canada
Ukraine
RB low
RB high (60 years) = assumed lifetime
(60 years) (< 60 years in some case)
(60 years)
(60 years)
(60 years)
(40 years)
(60 years)
(60 years)
(60 years)
(60 years)
(60 years)
(50 years)
(60 years)
(60 years)
(45-55 years)
(45-55 years)
(45-55 years)
(45-55 years)
(60 years)
(40 years in some cases)
24 Nuclear worldwide - where we stand 3 years after Fukushima.pptx
Our low estimate is less pessimistic than IAEA – Main differences are found in Western Europe and Middle East/South Asia
North America
Source: IAEA , Roland Berger analysis
Latin America
Western Europe Eastern Europe East Asia
98
203
412 432
194
Middle East and South
Asia
Africa
3368
138 137 117 68 79 7091
138
2 1042
7 26 25 47 66
194 142
6 1359
18 25
-55/+44 -47/+15
NPP development scenarios by 2050 [2014-2050, GWe]
372 440 504
1,020 1,113
TOTAL WORLD
64 72
134 163 119
-84/+20 -59/+21 +11/+70 +2/+23 +96/+334 +105/+304
+7/+53 +12/+19 +8/+40 +5/+24
+22/+117 +26/+169
+68/+741 +132/+648
RB low 2050 RB high 2050 Public data high 2030 Feb 2014 Public data low 2030