28
Nutrien Q4 2020 Results Presentation February 17, 2021
Nutrien Q4 2020Results Presentation
February 17, 2021
Forward Looking Statements
Certain statements and other information included in this document and incorporated by reference, including within “Outlook and Guidance” constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") under applicable securities laws (such statements are often accompanied by words such as "anticipate", “forecast”, "expect", "believe", "may", "will", "should", "estimate", "intend" or other similar words). All statements in this document, other than those relating to historical information or current conditions, are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: Nutrien’s 2021 annual guidance, including expectations regarding our adjusted net earnings per share, adjusted EBITDA (consolidated and by segment); expectations regarding performance of our operating segments in 2021; our market outlook for 2021, including Agriculture and Retail and Crop Nutrient Markets and including anticipated supply and demand for our products and services, expected market and industry conditions with respect to crop nutrient application rates, cash grower margins, planted acres, crop mix, prices and the impact of currency fluctuations and import and export volumes; and acquisitions and divestitures (including expected results and timing of closing thereof). These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements.
All of the forward-looking statements are qualified by the assumptions that are stated or inherent in such forward-looking statements, including the assumptions referred to below and elsewhere in this document. Although we believe that these assumptions are reasonable, this list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of the forward-looking statements and the reader should not place an undue reliance on these assumptions and such forward-looking statements. The additional key assumptions that have been made include, among other things, assumptions with respect to our ability to successfully complete, integrate and realize the anticipated benefits of its already completed and future acquisitions and divestitures, and that we will be able to implement our standards, controls, procedures and policies at any acquired businesses to realize the expected synergies; that future business, regulatory and industry conditions will be within the parameters expected by Nutrien, including with respect to prices, margins, demand, supply, product availability, supplier agreements, availability and cost of labor and interest, exchange and effective tax rates; the completion of our expansion projects on schedule, as planned and on budget; our expectations regarding the impacts, direct and indirect, of COVID-19 on our business, customers, business partners, employees, supply chain, other stakeholders and the overall economy; assumptions with respect to global economic conditions and the accuracy of our market outlook expectations for 2021 and in the future (including as outlined under “Market Outlook” and “Financial Outlook and Guidance” of our news release dated February 17,2021 announcing our fourth quarter and full year 2020 results as filed on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and EDGAR at www.sec.gov under our corporate profile); the adequacy of our cash generated from operations and our ability to access our credit facilities or capital markets for additional sources of financing; our ability to identify suitable candidates for acquisitions and divestitures and negotiate acceptable terms; our ability to maintain investment grade ratings and achieve our performance targets; and the receipt, on time, of all necessary permits, utilities and project approvals with respect to our expansion projects and that we will have the resources necessary to meet the projects’ approach.
Events or circumstances that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: general global economic, market and business conditions; failure to complete announced and future acquisitions or divestitures at all or on the expected terms and within the expected timeline; climate change and weather conditions, including impacts from regional flooding and/or drought conditions; crop planted acreage, yield and prices; the supply and demand and price levels for our products; governmental and regulatory requirements and actions by governmental authorities, including changes in government policy (including tariffs, trade restrictions and climate change initiatives), government ownership requirements, changes in environmental, tax and other laws or regulations and the interpretation thereof; political risks, including civil unrest, actions by armed groups or conflict and malicious acts including terrorism; the occurrence of a major environmental or safety incident; innovation and security risks related to our systems including cybersecurity risks such as attempts to gain unauthorized access to, or disable, our information technology systems, or our costs of addressing malicious intentional acts; regional natural gas supply restrictions; counterparty and sovereign risk; delays in completion of turnarounds at our major facilities; gas supply interruptions; any significant impairment of the carrying value of certain assets; risks related to reputational loss; certain complications that may arise in our mining processes; the ability to attract, engage and retain skilled employees and strikes or other forms of work stoppages; the COVID-19 pandemic and its resulting effects on business and economic conditions; and other risk factors detailed from time to time in Nutrien reports filed with the Canadian securities regulators and the Securities and Exchange Commission in the United States.
This presentation contains certain information which constitutes "financial outlook" and "future-oriented financial information" under applicable Canadian securities laws, including our adjusted net earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA (consolidated and by segment) guidance ranges, as well as our adjusted EBITDA price and volume sensitivities ranges, the purpose of which is to assist readers in understanding our expected and targeted financial results, and this information may not be appropriate for other purposes.
The forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of the date hereof and Nutrien disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this document as a result of new information or future events, except as may be required under applicable US federal securities laws or applicable Canadian securities legislation.
Non-IFRS Financial Measures Advisory
We consider adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net earnings per share, adjusted net earnings per share, adjusted EBITDA and sustaining capital expenditures guidance, Potash cash cost of product manufactured (COPM), ammonia controllable cash COPM, Free Cash Flow, Retail adjusted EBITDA per US selling location, Retail operating cash coverage ratio, Retail adjusted average working capital to sales, and 2017 combined historical Retail financial measures, all of which are non-IFRS financial measures, to provide useful information to both management and investors in measuring our financial performance and financial condition. Refer to the disclosure under the heading “Appendix B – Non-IFRS Financial Measures” included in our news release dated February 17, 2021 announcing our fourth quarter and full year 2020 results, as filed on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and EDGAR at www.sec.gov under our corporate profile, for a reconciliation of these non-IFRS financial measures to the most directly comparable measures calculated in accordance with IFRS and for a further discussion of how these measures are calculated and their usefulness to users, including management. Non-IFRS financial measures are not recognized measures under IFRS and our method of calculation may not be comparable to that of other companies. These non-IFRS financial measures should not be considered as a substitute for, or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with IFRS.
2
Note: All dollar amounts are stated in US dollars throughout the presentation unless otherwise noted. February 17, 2021
Current Annualized
Dividend per Share
$1.84Nutrien’s Dividend Has
Been Increased Three Times
Since 2018
Adjusted EBITDA ($B)
Q4’20 2020
$0.8 $3.7+16% -9%
RETAIL POTASH NITROGEN
$1.4BRecord Adjusted EBITDA
2020
+16%
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
YOY 2020
9.7%
Retail Adjusted EBITDA
Margin 2020
~$1.1M
Record Adjusted EBITDA1 per
US Selling Location 12.8Mmt
Potash
Sales Volume
2020
$59Record Cash Cost of Product
Manufactured per Tonne 2020
11Mmt
Record Nitrogen Sales
Volume 2020
10.6%
US Retail Adjusted EBITDA
Margin 2020
>$1.2B
Digital Sales2
2020
Fully
CommittedDomestic and Offshore
Volumes Through April 2021
$43Ammonia Controllable Cash
Cost of Product Manufactured
per Tonne 2020
Financial and Strategic Highlights 3
“Our Retail Ag Solutions business delivered a record fourth quarter and we also reported higher potash and nitrogen sales
volumes and lower production costs. With an improved outlook for our business in 2021, we recently increased our
dividend, and announced a 5% share repurchase program subject to regulatory approval”
Free Cash Flow ($B)
2020
$1.8-15%
Adjusted EPS
Q4’20 2020
$0.24 $1.80+267% -17%
Note: Percent changes on this page are the current period vs. the comparative period in 2019
1. Rolling four quarters ended December 31, 2020.
2. Represents North America results.Source: Nutrien
February 17, 2021
Nutrien Adjusted EBITDA 4
Fourth Quarter 12 Months Ended
2020 2019 Change 2020 2019 Change
Adjusted EBITDA
Retail $297 $231 +29% $1,430 $1,231 +16%
Potash $220 $149 +48% $1,190 $1,593 -25%
Nitrogen $266 $259 +3% $1,080 $1,239 -13%
Phosphate $63 $54 +17% $232 $194 +20%
Corporate & Others1 -$78 -$29 -169% -$265 -$232 -14%
Consolidated $768 $664 +16% $3,667 $4,025 -9%
Note: Results shown above are in US$ Millions unless otherwise noted
1. Total includes eliminations.
Our fourth quarter results reflect strong performance across all of our businesses,
particularly with excellent demand for potash both in North America and internationally and strong Retail growth
Source: Nutrien
February 17, 2021
1. No target was provided.
2. Assumes incremental reclassification impact from certain immaterial figures.
3. Adjusted to reflect what the metric would have been prior to a reclassification of certain immaterial figures.
4. Calculation is based upon number of selling locations only.
5. Platform generated revenue includes grower and employee orders that are entered directly into the digital platform. North American digital Retail sales as a proportion of total North American Retail sales. 2019 has been restated to align with how we calculated this
measure in 2020.
6. Assuming production ranges of 14Mmt to 16Mmt and excludes the impact of inflation.
7. Capacity utilization represents production volumes divided by production capacity (excluding Joffre and Trinidad facilities).
2019
Actual Results
2020
Actual Results
2023
Targets
Retail Ag Solutions Business Targets
Total Retail Adjusted EBITDA Margin 9.3% 9.7% >10.5%
US Retail Adjusted EBITDA Margin1 9.7% 10.6% -
Adjusted Average Working Capital to Sales 23% 15% 17%
Cash Operating Coverage Ratio2 62.9% 61.8% 60.0%
Cash Operating Coverage Ratio Before Reclassification3 62.2% 61.1% 59.0%
Adjusted EBITDA per US Selling location4 $967K $1,075K >$1,100K
Retail Ag Solutions Business Targets
Proprietary Products as a % of Total Margin2 23.3% 22.9% 29.0%
Proprietary Products as a % of Total Margin Before Reclassification3 23.7% 23.3% 29.0%
Total Digital Generated Revenue (% of Total Sales)5 2% 11% >50%
Total Digital Platform Generated Revenue (Millions)1,5 $260M $1,211M -
Potash Business Targets
Cash Cost of Product Manufactured $63/mt $59/mt $50-55/mt6
Nitrogen Business Targets
Ammonia Operating Rate7 91% 93% 96%
Ammonia Controllable Cash Cost of Product Manufactured $45/mt $43/mt $42/mt
Progressing Well On Our Operational Targets
Source: Nutrien
5
February 17, 2021
Retail
Q4’20
Results
Retail
2020
Results
2020 gross margin increased from a combination of organic and acquisition-related growth
Revenues+19%
Crop Nutrients Sales Volumes
+27%
Proportion of Proprietary Margin
11%
Revenues+11%
Crop Nutrients Sales Volumes
+15%
Proportion of Proprietary Margin
23%
1
6
Source: Nutrien
Results shown in US$ Millions unless otherwise noted.
Note: Change comparisons are the current period vs. the same period in 2019.
1. Net of Nutrien Financial elimination, which represents the elimination for the interest and service fees charged by Nutrien Financial to Retail branches.
February 17, 2021
Gross margin increased Q4’20 due to stronger sales and firm margins,
with much higher gross margin for crop nutrients, crop protection products and services and other
$769
$951$986
$1,119
$1,033
$1,091$1,145 $1,206 $1,231
$1,430
$1,500-$1,600
7.5%
8.3%8.3%
8.6%8.5%
9.3%9.5%
9.6%9.3%
9.7%
$0
$300
$600
$900
$1,200
$1,500
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F
Retail Adjusted EBITDA (US$ Millions) Retail Adjusted EBITDA Margin %Note: 2011-2016 data is based upon Agrium Inc. financials. 2017 based on the combined historical information as presented in our 2018 Annual Report. 2011 to 2017
figures are presented as Retail EBITDA. 2018 to 2020 are presented as Retail Adjusted EBITDA.
1. Based on adjusted Retail EBITDA guidance as provided in our news release February 17, 2021.
2. Calculated as US Retail adjusted EBITDA divided by US Retail sales.
3. Calculated as total Retail adjusted EBITDA divided by total Retail sales.
7
1
2018 2019 2020
US Retail Adjusted EBITDA Margin2 9.5% 9.7% 10.6%
Total Retail Adjusted EBITDA Margin3 9.6% 9.3% 9.7%
Strong organic growth, accretive acquisitions and cost efficiency initiatives have grown adjusted EBITDA
Retail Ag Solutions Continues to Deliver Growth
Source: Nutrien
February 17, 2021
2%
11%
2019 2020
Retail Ag Solutions Performance Highlights 8
Proportion of Sales1,2
Percent
1. Represents North America results.
2. North American digital Retail sales as a proportion of total North American Retail sales. 2019 has been restated to align with how we calculated this measure in 2020.
3. The launch of the platform was in March 2019.
4. For recent acquisitions, this represents adjusted EBITDA for the first twelve months following their acquisition dates.
3
Continued expansion in the adoption of our industry leading digital platform
combined with strong organic growth & operational improvements
Source: Nutrien
$1,075KRetail Adjusted EBITDA/US
Selling Location in 2020
~$900MReduction in Retail Adjusted
Average Working Capital in
2020
Retail Ag Solutions Adjusted EBITDAUS$ Millions
$260
$1,211
2019 2020
Sales1
US$ Millions
3
10.6%US Retail Adjusted EBITDA
Margin 2020
Digital Platform Results
February 17, 2021
~60%
~40%4
9
Gross Margin US$ Millions
$186 $170
Q4’19 Q4’20
-9%
$82$71
Q4’20Q4’19
-13%
Adjusted EBITDAUS$ Million
Net Selling Price US$/MT
Cash COPM US$/MT
Offshore
N. America
$149
$220
Q4’19 Q4’20
+48%
$145$139
Q4'19Gross Margin
Net Selling Price Volumes COGSexcl. D&A
D&A inCOGS
Q4'20Gross Margin
1
0.7 1.1
1.21.6
Q4’20
2.7
Q4’19
1.9
+41%
Sales Volumes Million Tonnes
• Higher sales volumes from a
strong NA fall application season
drove the increase in gross margin
• Lower net realized selling prices
partially offset the increase
• Higher COGS/mt was due to
production mix and timing of
maintenance projects, offset by
increased production
1. COGS variance does not include depreciation and amortization (D&A).
Source: Nutrien
Potash Results: Q4 2020
February 17, 2021
$963
$1,501
2019Gross Margin
Net Selling Price Volumes COGSexcl. D&A
D&A inCOGS
2020Gross Margin
Potash Results: 2020 10
Gross Margin US$ Millions
$226
$167
2019 2020
-26%
$63 $59
2019 2020
-6%
Adjusted EBITDAUS$ Million
Net Selling Price US$/MT
Cash COPM US$/MT
Offshore
N. America
$1,593
$1,190
2019 2020
-25%
1
4.0 4.8
7.5 8.0
12.811.5
2019 2020
+11%
Sales Volumes Million Tonnes
• Lower net realized selling prices
impacted gross margin
• Record domestic sales volumes
were supported by improved global
crop prices, increased planted
acreage in US and a strong fall
application season in NA
• Lower COGS/mt driven by
production efficiencies and higher
production levels
1. COGS variance does not include depreciation and amortization (D&A).
Source: Nutrien
February 17, 2021
Nitrogen Results: Q4 2020 11
Gross Margin US$ Millions
$212 $195
Q4’19 Q4’20
-8%
$48$40
Q4’19 Q4’20
-17%
Adjusted EBITDAUS$ Million
Net Selling Price US$/MT
Ammonia COPM2
US$/MT
$259 $266
Q4’19 Q4’20
+3%
$112$107
Q4'19Gross Margin
Net Selling Price Volumes COGSexcl. D&A
D&A inCOGS
Other Nitrogen &Purchased
Product
Q4'20Gross Margin
1
2.42.8
Q4’19 Q4’20
+20%
Sales VolumesMillion MT
• Gross margin was higher due
to higher sales volumes from
strong NA fertilizer demand
• Lower net realized selling
prices offset the impact of
higher sales volumes
• Lower D&A more than offset
higher natural gas costs,
driving lower COGS/mt
1. COGS variance does not include depreciation and amortization (D&A).
2. Ammonia controllable cash cost of product manufactured.
Source: Nutrien
February 17, 2021
Nitrogen Results: 2020 12
Gross Margin US$ Millions
$232$203
2019 2020
-13%
$45 $43
2019 2020
-4%
Adjusted EBITDAUS$ Million
Net Selling Price US$/MT
Ammonia COPM2
US$/MT
$1,239$1,080
2019 2020
-13%
$475
$700
2019Gross Margin
Net Selling Price Volumes COGSexcl. D&A
D&A inCOGS
Other Nitrogen &Purchased
Product
2020Gross Margin
1
10.3 11.0
2019 2020
+7%
Sales VolumesMillion MT
• Lower net realized selling
prices in all manufactured
product categories were the
result of lower global
benchmark prices
• Recent expansions and
strong NA operating rates
drove record sales volumes
• Lower gas & fixed costs offset
an increase in D&A, lowering
COGS/mt
1. COGS variance does not include depreciation and amortization (D&A).
2. Ammonia controllable cost of product manufactured.
Source: Nutrien
February 17, 2021
Grower Margins Have Improved on Supply Concerns 13
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
-100
300
700
1,100
1,500
1,900
2,300
2,700
Key Crop Grower Cash MarginsLocal Currency Margin/Acre
US Corn US Soybean US Wheat US Cotton CDN Canola Brazil Soybean
10M acres of US prevent plant in 2020 combined with drought pushing back the soybean planting season in Brazil have created
tight global crop fundamentals, driving prices and grower margins higher since last fall
Source: Bloomberg, USDA, IMEA, Nutrien
February 17, 2021
Nutrien Has Leverage to Improving Fundamentals and a Stable & Growing Dividend
Dividends PaidUS$/Share
4.0
$0.43
Oct’19 - Feb’21
$0.40
Apr’18 - Oct’18 Jan’19 - Jul’19
$0.45
Feb’21
$0.46
Horizontal axis represents
the length of time at each dividend level
+$650MEstimated impact to Nutrien Adj. EBITDA from
a $25/mt increase in fertilizer prices1
+$100M Estimated impact to Nutrien Adj. EBITDA from
additional 1Mmt of potash sales volume
2
Nutrien has significant leverage to fertilizer prices, while at the same time is committed to a stable & growing dividend,
providing investors yield and growth opportunity simultaneously
14
1. Estimated annualized impact to Nutrien Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EPS from a $25/mt increase in fertilizer prices. Does not include additions potential leverage
from increasing prices for Retail Ag Solutions and excludes potash production taxes.
2. Based on the dividend declared February 17, 2021.Source: Nutrien
February 17, 2021
Outlook and Guidance
February 17, 2021
Crop Prices Have Improved on Tight Global Fundamentals 16
$3.70 $3.63
$5.41
Prev. 3
Yr Avg.
2020
Avg.
Current
Price
+49%
$0.71$0.64
$0.87
2020 Avg.
Prev. 3 Yr Avg.
Current Price
+36%
RM 2,411
RM 2,800
RM 3,898
Prev. 3 Yr Avg.
Current Price
2020 Avg.
+39%
R$82
R$111
R$148
Current Price
2020 Avg.
Prev. 3 Yr Avg.
+33%
$5.13$5.50
$6.36
Prev. 3 Yr Avg.
Current Price
2020 Avg.
+16%
$9.25 $9.53
$13.68
Prev. 3 Yr Avg.
2020 Avg.
Current Price
+44%
US Corn(US$/bushel)
US Soybean(US$/bushel)
US Wheat(US$/bushel)
US Cotton
(US$/lb)
Palm Oil(MYR/tonne)
Brazil Soybean(Real/60kg bag)
Lower than expected US yields in 2020 combined with strong Chinese demand have driven crop prices higher
Source: Bloomberg
Prices as of end-of-day February 11, 2021. Spot future prices for corn, wheat, cotton, soybeans, and spot prices for palm oil and Brazil soybeans. Previous 3-year average from January 2018 – December 2020 February 17, 2021
4.2% 3.4%
-0.6%
-9.8%
5.6%
2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F
Crop Input Expenditure Projected to Increase in 2021 17
-4.5%
-0.8% -1.2%
0.2%
4.6%
2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F
-1.6%
9.3%
-7.4%
2.3%4.0%
2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F
US W Canada
Brazil1 Australia
Robust crop input
expenditure growth
expected in 2021 driven
primarily by a rebound in
acreage and significantly
higher fertilizer prices
Increased cereal and
canola acreage
supportive of
expenditures in 2021
While record grower
margins supported strong
acreage and input
applications in 2020, they
were offset by weak FX,
expect a rebound in 2021
Continued growth in
Australia expected in
2021 driven by strong
crop fundamentals and
continued improvement
in soil moisture
1.5%
-16.8%-19.7%
23.7%
4.5%
2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F
1. Brazil’s FX is subject to high levels of volatility under current market conditions, and unexpected changes to the Brazilian Real’s value would result in changes to the 2021F. The volatility in Brazil’s FX in 2020 adds uncertainty to our 2020 estimate, which
is on a US dollar basis.
Increased US acreage, improved crop prices and recoup of Brazilian FX losses from 2020
supportive of >3% increase in crop input expenditures in key markets in 2021
Source: Nutrien, USDA, Statistics Canada, Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture, Alberta Agriculture & Rural Development, Manitoba Agriculture, IMEA, CONAB, ABARES, AgInsights, AgBioInvest, CRU
February 17, 2021
US Corn & Soybean Export Sales 18
US 2020/21 Soybean Cumulative Export SalesMillion Tonnes
US 2020/21 Corn Cumulative Export SalesMillion Tonnes
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 20yr Average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 20yr Average
Source: USDA-FAS
US corn and soybean exports sales are currently setting a record pace, driven by strong demand from China;
High export demand has tightened US supply, supporting significantly higher prices and likely acreage increases in 2021
Note: Shading represents a 20-year range of exports sales.February 17, 2021
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Aug'20USDA
CurrentUSDA
Ending Stocks
Stocks to Use
Fundamentals Stronger for US Grower 19
US Soybean Ending Stocks & Stock/Use RatioMillion Bushels Percent
Source: USDA
US corn and soybean supply has tightened significantly, resulting in the lowest stocks-to-use ratios in years
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Jun'20USDA
CurrentUSDA
Ending Stocks
Stocks to Use
US Corn Ending Stocks & Stock/Use RatioMillion Bushels Percent
February 17, 2021
Strong Fundamentals for Brazilian Growers 20
Mato Grosso Cash Soybean & Corn PricesReal/Sack
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21
Soybeans
Corn
Brazilian Soybean and Corn AreaMillions of Hectares
Source: USDA, Bloomberg, IMEA, CONAB, Ministry of Foreign Trade and Services Industry, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Nutrien
February 17, 2021
Brazilian growers benefitted from record exports and prices in 2020, are projected to plant record area in 2021,
however, harvest of the current soybean crop and upcoming Safrinha corn crop may be delayed due to La Niña impacts
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21F
Corn Soybeans
3.4%
CAGR
Tightening Chinese Supply and Demand 21
36
9
(4)
(17) (17)
(28)
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21F
China Corn Production Surplus/DeficitMillion Tonnes
China Corn PriceUS$/bushel
$9.25
$7.10$6.25
$7.08 $6.91
$8.10
$11.43
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Feb. 102021
Source: USDA, Bloomberg
February 17, 2021
Rebuilding the Chinese hog herd combined with structural tightening of the corn supply/demand
balance has supported import demand and domestic pricing
North American Major Crop Acreage Forecast 22
Major Crop AcreageMillion Acres
Source: USDA, StatCan, Nutrien
February 17, 2021
Weather permitting, we project ~10 million acres of additional cropland in North America driven by high crop prices
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019 20202021(NTR)
Corn 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.2 88.9 89.7 90.8 91-93
Soybeans 76.8 83.3 82.7 83.5 90.2 89.2 76.1 83.1 88-90
Wheat 56.2 56.8 55.0 50.1 46.1 47.8 45.5 44.3 45-46
Cotton 10.4 11.1 8.6 10.1 12.7 14.1 13.7 12.1 12-12.5
Sorghum 8.1 7.1 8.5 6.7 5.6 5.7 5.3 5.8 6.0
Rice 2.5 3.0 2.6 3.2 2.5 2.9 2.5 3.0 2.6
Total U.S.
Major249 252 245 247 247 249 233 239 247-250
WC Canola 20.1 20.7 20.6 20.6 22.8 22.6 21.0 20.7 21-22
23
K
N
P
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21
Change Since July 2020US$/mt or st Product
Brazil CFR (US$/mt) +$50
US Midwest FOB (US$/st) +$103
100
200
300
400
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21
200
300
400
500
600
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21
Tampa Ammonia CFR
(US$/mt)
NOLA Urea FOB (US$/st)
NOLA UAN FOB (US$/st)
NOLA DAP FOB (US$/st)
Brazil MAP CFR (US$/mt)
+$125
+$133
+$78
+$203
+$231
Selected Fertilizer PricesUS$/mt or st Product
Fertilizer prices have continued to increase in recent months on tightened supply and improved demand in key spot markets
Global Fertilizer Prices
February 17, 2021
Source: Fertilizer Week, Nutrien
As of February 11, 2021
Million Tonnes KCl
Global Potash Deliveries by Region
India Other Asia North America Latin America China Other
4.5 – 5.0Mmt
Expect stable potash
consumption and shipments
supported by favorable
monsoon forecast and
increased minimum support
prices and production for key
crops
9.5 – 10.5Mmt
Palm oil prices have
continued to strengthen, and
we expect continued high
affordability to support
increased potash demand in
2021
9.5 – 10.5Mmt
Supportive crop prices,
increased planted acreage
and the most favorable
affordability in a decade are
expected to support robust
potash consumption
14.0 – 15.0Mmt
Strong corn and soybean
fundamentals and record-
high grower margins,
combined with continued
expansion in cropland, are
expected to lead to higher
demand in the region
15.5 – 16.5Mmt
Expect relatively flat
shipments following
consecutive record years,
however domestic demand
remains supported by
tightened crop supplies and
high crop prices
13.5 – 14.0Mmt
Improved affordability and
growing demand for NPK
fertilizers, particularly in
Africa and FSU countries, are
expected to continue
boosting potash demand
Source: Nutrien, Industry Consultants
2021
Fo
recast
24
0
5
10
15
20
17 18 19 20E 21F 17 18 19 20E 21F 17 18 19 20E 21F 17 18 19 20E 21F 17 18 19 20E 21F 17 18 19 20E 21F
We project strong global potash demand of 68 to 70 million tonnes in 2021, supported by favorable crop economics and high
affordability levels for farmers around the world and limited inventory build from higher-than-expected 2020 shipments
February 17, 2021
Global Natural Gas Prices 25
Energy Feedstock PricesUS$/MMBtu
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
Jan/2018 Jul/2018 Jan/2019 Jul/2019 Jan/2020 Jul/2020 Jan/2021
Henry Hub AECO European Hub China Bituminous Coal
Source: Fertecon, US EIA, Canadian Gas Price Reporter, CRU, Nutrien
February 17, 2021
Increased European gas and Chinese coal prices are supportive of the global nitrogen cost curve entering 2021
1. Presented on a US$/MMBtu equivalent basis.
1
Rebound in Industrial Activity in 2H 2020 Led By China, Supporting Improved Industrial Ammonia Demand
26
3.5
Source: Bloomberg, US ISM, Goldman Sachs, St. Louis Fed, OECD
US Manufacturing Index (PMI)Index
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
China Manufacturing Index (PMI)Index
35
40
45
50
55
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU Industrial Production (excl. Construction)Index
Global Real GDP Growth%
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
November 2020 US PMI declined slightly
from October, which was at the highest level
since November 2018
China’s manufacturing index has increased is
at the highest level since 2011
EU Industrial Production has rebounded
35% since April low (in 2008, it took 18
months to return to 90% of pre-decline levels,
compared to 5 months in 2020)
Historically large decline in the global economy in
Q2 2020, projected to move back positive in Q1
2021 and reach Q4 2019 levels in ~Q3 2021
February 17, 2021
Nutrien 2021 Annual Guidance
2021 Guidance Ranges 1
(annual guidance except where noted)Low High
Adjusted net earnings per share1 $2.05 $2.75
Adjusted EBITDA (billions) $4.0 $4.5
Adjusted Retail EBITDA (billions) $1.5 $1.6
Adjusted Potash EBITDA (billions) $1.4 $1.6
Adjusted Nitrogen EBITDA (billions) $1.1 $1.3
Adjusted Phosphate EBITDA (millions) $250 $350
Potash sales tonnes (millions) 2 12.5 13.0
Nitrogen sales tonnes (millions) 2 10.9 11.4
Depreciation & amortization (billions) $1.9 $2.0
Effective tax rate on adjusted earnings 22% 24%
Sustaining capital expenditures (billions) $1.1 $1.2
27
Source: Nutrien
1. All references to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net earnings per share.
2. Potash and nitrogen sales tonnes include manufactured product only. Nitrogen sales tonnes exclude ESN® and Rainbow products.February 17, 2021
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